Steven Cowley: Fusion is energy's future

翻译人员: Zachary Lin Zhao 校对人员: Jenny Yang

The key question is, "When are we going to get fusion?"

关键问题是：“我们何时才可以使用核聚变呢？”

It's really been a long time since we've known about fusion.

我们对核聚变的认知其实可以追溯到很久以前。

We've known about fusion since 1920,

自从1920年起，我们便开始对核聚变有所了解，

when Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington

当时亚瑟·斯坦利·爱丁顿爵士

and the British Association for the Advancement of Science

以及英国科学联合会

conjectured that that's why the sun shines.

推断核聚变是太阳发光的原因所在。

I've always been very worried about resource.

我一直都对资源问题充满担忧。

I don't know about you, but

我不知道你是不是也和我一样，

when my mother gave me food,

但至少当我妈妈给我食物的时候，

I always sorted the ones I disliked

我总是把我不喜欢的食物

from the ones I liked.

和我喜欢的分开来。

And I ate the disliked ones first,

而且我总是从不喜欢的食物开始吃起，

because the ones you like, you want to save.

因为对于你喜欢的食物，你应该保留起来才对。

And as a child you're always worried about resource.

作为孩子的我们总是很担心资源问题。

And once it was sort of explained to me

所以当有人告诉我说

how fast we were using up the world's resources,

地球上的资源正因为我们而快速枯竭时，

I got very upset,

我感到非常不安，

about as upset as I did when I realized

就像当初我得知

that the Earth will only last about five billion years

地球只能再活50亿年就要被太阳吞噬时

before it's swallowed by the sun.

一样的不安。

Big events in my life,

这些都是我有生之年的重大事件呀。

a strange child.

我算得上是个奇怪的小孩。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Energy, at the moment, is dominated by resource.

在当下，能源是受控于资源。

The countries that make a lot of money out of energy

那些通过能源来赚大钱的国家

have something underneath them.

都拥有大量的地下宝藏。

Coal-powered industrial revolution in this country --

这个国家所经历的煤炭引导的工业革命──

oil, gas, sorry.

不好意思，我想说石油、天然气（不是煤炭）。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Gas, I'm probably the only person

说到天然气，我可能是唯一一个

who really enjoys it when Mister Putin

听到普京总理要切断天然气管道时

turns off the gas tap, because my budget goes up.

欣喜若狂的人，因为（他如果真的这么做的话）我的预算就会增加。

We're really dominated now

我们现在已经真正地被那些

by those things that we're using up faster and faster and faster.

我们极速消耗的事物所制约。

And as we try to lift billions of people out of poverty

当我们正竭尽所能地帮助

in the Third World, in the developing world,

第三世界、发展中国家的人们脱离贫穷的同时，

we're using energy faster and faster.

我们使用能源的速度也是在逐步加快。

And those resources are going away.

而相对应的资源也是快速消逝。

And the way we'll make energy in the future

而在未来，我们获取能源的方式

is not from resource,

将不再是通过资源，

it's really from knowledge.

而是通过知识。

If you look 50 years into the future,

如果你着眼于未来的五十年，

the way we probably will be making energy

届时我们获取能源的方式

is probably one of these three,

很有可能是这三种中的一个（核裂变、核聚变、太阳能），

with some wind, with some other things,

外加上一些风能和其他辅助方式，

but these are going to be the base load energy drivers.

但这三项将成为驱动能源的根基。

Solar can do it, and we certainly have to develop solar.

太阳能可以肩负这一职责。我们必须大力发展太阳能。

But we have a lot of knowledge to gain before we can make solar

但在把太阳能作为世界基础能源之前，

the base load energy supply for the world.

我们还要对很多知识需要得以了解。

Fission.

再来看看核裂变。

Our government is going to put in six new nuclear power stations.

我们政府正打算建立6个新的核电站。

They're going to put in six new nuclear power stations,

他们计划增加6个核电站，

and probably more after that.

但很有可能不止这些。

China is building nuclear power stations. Everybody is.

中国也在扩建核电站。每个国家都是这样。

Because they know that that is one sure way

因为他们知道这是可以确保获得无碳能源

to do carbon-free energy.

的途径之一。

But if you wanted to know what the perfect energy source is,

但如果你想知道最完美的能源来源是什么的话，

the perfect energy source is one

让我来告诉你，最完美的能源来源

that doesn't take up much space,

不需要占据这么大的空间，

has a virtually inexhaustible supply,

拥有几乎无穷无尽的供给，

is safe, doesn't put any carbon into the atmosphere,

使用安全，不会向大气中投放任何碳物质，

doesn't leave any long-lived radioactive waste:

并且不会残留任何长期的辐射废物。

it's fusion.

这就是核聚变。

But there is a catch. Of course there is always a catch in these cases.

但这其中却是暗藏玄机，当然了，这么好的事情的背后总是暗藏玄机。

Fusion is very hard to do.

核聚变实施起来困难重重。

We've been trying for 50 years.

我们已经努力尝试了50年。

Okay. What is fusion? Here comes the nuclear physics.

所以核聚变究竟是什么呢？好，接下来就是原子物理学教学时间。

And sorry about that, but this is what turns me on.

还望大家包涵，因为这些东西着实让我热血沸腾。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I was a strange child.

我跟你说过，我是个怪胎。

Nuclear energy comes for a simple reason.

核能源的产生非常简单。

The most stable nucleus is iron, right in the middle of the periodic table.

最稳定的原子核是铁元素，就在元素周期表的正中间。

It's a medium-sized nucleus.

它的原子核是中等大小。

And you want to go towards iron if you want to get energy.

所以如果你想得到能源的话，就要向铁元素靠近。

So, uranium, which is very big, wants to split.

因此大体积的铀元素就想要分裂，

But small atoms want to join together,

而小体积的原子们则想要聚集在一起，

small nuclei want to join together

小的原子核们聚到一起，

to make bigger ones to go towards iron.

变成大的原子核，来趋近铁元素。

And you can get energy out this way.

你可以通过这种方式来得到能源。

And indeed that's exactly what stars do.

而这正是星体们获取能源的方式。

In the middle of stars, you're joining hydrogen together to make helium

在星体的中心，氢原子们聚集到一起转变成氦原子，

and then helium together to make carbon,

氦原子又聚到一起变成碳原子，

to make oxygen, all the things that you're made of

再变成氧原子，我们身体里的一切

are made in the middle of stars.

都是这样在星体的中心制造出来的。

But it's a hard process to do

但这个过程却是十分艰难的，

because, as you know, the middle of a star is quite hot,

因为星体的中心，如你所知，是非常炽热的，

almost by definition.

这一点不难想象。

And there is one reaction

而有一个化学反应

that's probably the easiest fusion reaction to do.

可能算得上是最简单的核聚变反应了。

It's between two isotopes of hydrogen, two kinds of hydrogen:

是氢原子的两个同位素之间的反应，两种氢原子，

deuterium, which is heavy hydrogen,

这两个同位素就是氘原子，

which you can get from seawater,

一种可以从海水中获得的重氢元素，

and tritium which is super-heavy hydrogen.

以及氚原子，一种超重氢元素。

These two nuclei, when they're far apart, are charged.

这两个原子核，在相隔甚远的时候，带电粒子。

And you push them together and they repel.

当你把它们俩放到一起的时候，它们会彼此相斥。

But when you get them close enough,

但当它们之间的距离变得足够近的时候，

something called the strong force starts to act

一种叫做强相互作用的力量将会发挥功效，

and pulls them together.

会将它们拉拢到一起。

So, most of the time they repel.

也就是说，大部分的时候它们都是彼此相斥的，

You get them closer and closer and closer and then at some point

但当它们开始一点一点的逼近彼此的时候，在某个时刻

the strong force grips them together.

强相互作用会将它们聚到一起。

For a moment they become helium 5,

它们先是会变成氦5，

because they've got five particles inside them.

因为它们包含着5个粒子。

So, that's that process there. Deuterium and tritium goes together

这就是整个过程。氘原子和氚原子聚集到一起

makes helium 5.

制造出氦5原子。

Helium splits out, and a neutron comes out

随后氦原子产生分裂，释放一个中子

and lots of energy comes out.

和大量的能量。

If you can get something to about 150 million degrees,

如果你能把温度提升到大概1.5亿摄氏度，

things will be rattling around so fast

物质的移动速度将变得如此之快，

that every time they collide in just the right configuration,

以致于每次它们以正确的构型相撞的时候，

this will happen, and it will release energy.

这个核聚变反应都会发生，并且会释放能量。

And that energy is what powers fusion.

而这个能量就是核聚变能源的根本所在。

And it's this reaction that we want to do.

这个反应也正是我们所需要的。

There is one trickiness about this reaction.

但这个反应有一个棘手之处，

Well, there is a trickiness that you have to make it 150 million degrees,

除了要把温度提升到1.5亿摄氏度，

but there is a trickiness about the reaction yet.

这个反应本身已有一个阻碍，

It's pretty hot.

非常大的阻碍。

The trickiness about the reaction is that

那就是

tritium doesn't exist in nature.

氚元素在大自然中并不存在。

You have to make it from something else.

必须由其他物质生成。

And you make if from lithium. That reaction at the bottom,

而这个其他物质就是锂元素，所利用的是底部的这个反应。

that's lithium 6, plus a neutron,

锂6原子加上一个中子

will give you more helium, plus tritium.

会生成氦元素以及氚元素。

And that's the way you make your tritium.

这就是生成氚元素的方式。

But fortunately, if you can do this fusion reaction,

值得庆幸的是，上述提到的核聚变反应的产物之一

you've got a neutron, so you can make that happen.

就是一粒中子，可以用于这个氚生成反应中来。

Now, why the hell would we bother to do this?

但问题是，我们为何要话费心机这么折腾一番呢？

This is basically why we would bother to do it.

原因就在于此：

If you just plot how much fuel

如果我们以当下世界的能源消耗为单位，

we've got left, in units of

绘制出我们所剩的资源储量

present world consumption.

我们就会发现，

And as you go across there you see

当我们放眼看去，

a few tens of years of oil -- the blue line, by the way,

我们只剩下几十年的石油储量──那条蓝色的线

is the lowest estimate of existing resources.

是现有资源的最低估测量，

And the yellow line is the most optimistic estimate.

而那条黄色的线，则是最乐观的估测量。

And as you go across there you will see

这么看过去，你就会发现

that we've got a few tens of years, and perhaps 100 years

我们只剩下几十年的，多说100年的

of fossil fuels left.

化石燃料。

And god knows we don't really want to burn all of it,

苍天作证，我们的确是不想把这些燃料全部用尽。

because it will make an awful lot of carbon in the air.

因为它们将向大气中释放大量的碳物质。

And then we get to uranium.

再来看看铀产量，

And with current reactor technology

依据现有的核反应堆技术，

we really don't have very much uranium.

我们的确是没有太多的铀元素。

And we will have to extract uranium from sea water,

我们不得不从海水中提取铀元素──

which is the yellow line,

就是这条黄色的线──

to make conventional nuclear power stations

用来建造传统的核电站

actually do very much for us.

帮助我们实现很多目标。

This is a bit shocking, because in fact our government

这其实是很惊悚的，因为事实上，我们政府

is relying on that for us to meet Kyoto,

正依赖这些技术来帮助我们履行《京都协议书》中的职责

and do all those kind of things.

以及其他的相关事项。

To go any further you would have to have breeder technology.

而若想取得更长足的进展，我们就必须开放裂变增殖技术。

And breeder technology is fast breeders. And that's pretty dangerous.

增殖技术可以快速提升产量，是相当危险的。

The big thing, on the right,

而最重要的资源，就在最右侧，

is the lithium we have in the world.

是世界现有的锂元素。

And lithium is in sea water. That's the yellow line.

锂元素存在于海水中，就是那条黄色的线。

And we have 30 million years worth of fusion fuel in sea water.

我们大概有可以持续3千万年的化学燃料存储于海水中。

Everybody can get it. That's why we want to do fusion.

每个人都可以开发利用。这就是我们为什么要研发核聚变。

Is it cost-competitive?

那么，这是不是一项低成本的科技呢？

We make estimates of what we think it would cost

我们根据我们现有的知识，来估测

to actually make a fusion power plant.

建造一个核聚变能源站的费用。

And we get within about the same price

而我们随得到的数据，跟建造现有的电厂的花销

as current electricity.

不相上下。

So, how would we make it?

那我们要如何是实现这项技术呢？

We have to hold something at 150 million degrees.

我们得想办法承担1.5亿度的高温。

And, in fact, we've done this.

事实上，我们曾经做过这样的事情。

We hold it with a magnetic field.

我们用一个磁场来承担这个高温。

And inside it, right in the middle of this toroidal shape, doughnut shape,

在这个中心，这个环形、甜甜圈形状的正中心，

right in the middle is 150 million degrees.

就是1.5亿度的高温。

It boils away in the middle at 150 million degrees.

1.5亿度的高温就在正中央沸腾着。

And in fact we can make fusion happen.

事实上，我们可以促成核聚变反应的发生。

And just down the road, this is JET.

就在不久的将来。这是JET。

It's the only machine in the world that's actually done fusion.

是世界上唯一一个已经促成核聚变反应的仪器。

When people say fusion is 30 years away, and always will be,

当人们说核聚变还需要30年的时间，永远不会成为现实的时候，

I say, "Yeah, but we've actually done it." Right?

我就会反问他们：“但是我们已经进行过核聚变反应了呀！”

We can do fusion. In the center of this device

我们可以进行核聚变反应。在1997年，就在这个仪器的中心，

we made 16 megawatts of fusion power in 1997.

我们制造出了16兆瓦的核聚变能量。

And in 2013 we're going to fire it up again

而在2013年，我们将再次将它启动，

and break all those records.

打破之前的这些记录。

But that's not really fusion power. That's just making some fusion happen.

但那并不是真正的核聚变能量，只是使核聚变产生的过程。

We've got to take that, we've got to make that into a fusion reactor.

我们需要在此基础上，研发出核聚变反应堆。

Because we want 30 million years worth of fusion power for the Earth.

因为我们需要我们的星球提供3千万年的核聚变能量。

This is the device we're building now.

这是我们正在建造的装置。

It gets very expensive to do this research.

这项研究非常昂贵。

It turns out you can't do fusion on a table top

那些冷聚变的谣言纯属胡扯，

despite all that cold fusion nonsense. Right?

核聚变是无法在实验桌上完成的。

You can't. You have to do it in a very big device.

一切必须在一个巨大的装置中进行。

More than half the world's population is involved in building this device

世界上半数以上的人口都和这个在法国南部建造的装置相关联。

in southern France, which is a nice place to put an experiment.

法国南部是一个不错的做试验的地方。

Seven nations are involved in building this.

7个国家正携手建造这一装置。

It's going to cost us 10 billion. And we'll produce half a gigawatt of fusion power.

大概要花费100亿。我们将可以制造5亿瓦特的核聚变能量。

But that's not electricity yet.

但这还算不上是电能。

We have to get to this.

我们还需要把这些能量转化为电能。

We have to get to a power plant.

我们要建立个电厂。

We have to start putting electricity on the grid

我们需要利用这项十分复杂的科技

in this very complex technology.

通过电网来输送电能。

And I'd really like it to happen a lot faster than it is.

我真的希望一切能进展得更快一些。

But at the moment, all we can imagine is sometime in the 2030s.

但根据现有的情况，我只能说一切要到本世纪30年左右才能完成。

I wish this were different. We really need it now.

我真心希望现实并非如此，因为我们对这项技术是迫切得需要。

We're going to have a problem with power

在接下来的五年里，我们这个国家

in the next five years in this country.

将会面临能源问题。

So 2030 looks like an infinity away.

所以2030年看起来是无比的遥远。

But we can't abandon it now; we have to push forward,

但我们不能就此而放弃，我们应该勇往直前，

get fusion to happen.

让核聚变成为现实。

I wish we had more money, I wish we had more resources.

我希望我们能有更多的资金，能有更多的资源。

But this is what we're aiming at,

但这是我们根据现有情况定下的目标

sometime in the 2030s --

本世纪30年代──

real electric power from fusion. Thank you very much.

核聚变将带来真正的电力能源。感谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）