Steven Cowley: Fusion is energy's future

Prevoditelj: Tilen Pigac - EFZG Recezent: Mislav Ante Omazić - EFZG

The key question is, "When are we going to get fusion?"

Ključno pitanje je, "Kada ćemo postići fuziju?"

It's really been a long time since we've known about fusion.

Već je prošlo mnogo vremena otkad znamo za fuziju.

We've known about fusion since 1920,

Znamo za fuziju od 1920.,

when Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington

kada su Sir Arthur Stanley Eddington

and the British Association for the Advancement of Science

i Britanska Udruga za napredak znanosti

conjectured that that's why the sun shines.

zaključili kako je to razlog zbog kojeg sunce sija.

I've always been very worried about resource.

Uvijek sam bio jako zabrinut o izvoru.

I don't know about you, but

Ne znam kako vi, ali

when my mother gave me food,

kada bi mi majka dala hranu

I always sorted the ones I disliked

uvijek bih odvajao onu koju nisam volio

from the ones I liked.

od one koju sam volio.

And I ate the disliked ones first,

I jeo bih onu koju nisam volio prvu,

because the ones you like, you want to save.

jer onu koju volite, želite sačuvati.

And as a child you're always worried about resource.

I kao dijete uvijek ste zabrinuti o izvoru.

And once it was sort of explained to me

I jednom kada mi je, na neki način, bilo objašnjeno

how fast we were using up the world's resources,

kako brzo trošimo svjetske resurse,

I got very upset,

jako sam se uznemirio,

about as upset as I did when I realized

gotovo jednako kao i kad sam shvatio

that the Earth will only last about five billion years

da će Zemlja još biti tu oko pet milijardi godina

before it's swallowed by the sun.

prije nego je sunce proguta.

Big events in my life,

Veliki događaji u mom životu,

a strange child.

čudno dijete.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Energy, at the moment, is dominated by resource.

Energija je, trenutno, pod utjecajem resursa.

The countries that make a lot of money out of energy

Zemlje koje zarađuju mnogo novca od energije

have something underneath them.

imaju nešto ispod njih.

Coal-powered industrial revolution in this country --

Ugljenom predvođena industrijska revolucija u ovoj zemlji -

oil, gas, sorry.

nafta, plin, oprostite.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Gas, I'm probably the only person

Plin, ja sam vjerojatno jedina osoba

who really enjoys it when Mister Putin

koja istinski uživa kada gosp. Putin

turns off the gas tap, because my budget goes up.

prekine dovod plina, jer tada moj budžet raste.

We're really dominated now

Stvarno smo sada pod utjecajem

by those things that we're using up faster and faster and faster.

stvari koje trošimo sve brže i brže i brže.

And as we try to lift billions of people out of poverty

I kako pokušavamo izbaviti milijarde ljudi iz siromaštva

in the Third World, in the developing world,

u Trećem svijetu, u svijetu u razvoju,

we're using energy faster and faster.

koristimo energiju sve brže i brže.

And those resources are going away.

I ti resursi nestaju.

And the way we'll make energy in the future

I način na koji ćemo dobivati energiju u budućnosti,

is not from resource,

nije iz resursa,

it's really from knowledge.

već je istinski iz znanja.

If you look 50 years into the future,

Ako pogledate 50 godina u budućnost,

the way we probably will be making energy

način na koji ćemo vjerojatno dobivati energiju

is probably one of these three,

je vjerojatno jedan od ova tri,

with some wind, with some other things,

s ponešto vjetra, s nekim drugim stvarima,

but these are going to be the base load energy drivers.

ali ove će biti temeljni pokretači energije.

Solar can do it, and we certainly have to develop solar.

Solarna energija to može izvesti, i moramo, svakako, razviti solarnu energiju.

But we have a lot of knowledge to gain before we can make solar

Ali moramo usvojiti mnogo znanja prije nego što učinimo solarnu energiju

the base load energy supply for the world.

temeljnom zalihom energije u svijetu.

Fission.

Fisija.

Our government is going to put in six new nuclear power stations.

Naša vlada će izgraditi šest novih nuklearnih elektrana.

They're going to put in six new nuclear power stations,

Postavit će šest novih nuklearnih elektrana,

and probably more after that.

i vjerojatno još nakon toga.

China is building nuclear power stations. Everybody is.

Kina gradi nuklearne elektrane. Svi ih grade.

Because they know that that is one sure way

Jer znaju kako je to jedan siguran način

to do carbon-free energy.

za proizvodnju energije bez ugljika.

But if you wanted to know what the perfect energy source is,

Ali ako ste željeli znati koji je savršen izvor energije,

the perfect energy source is one

savršen izvor energije je onaj

that doesn't take up much space,

koji ne zauzima previše prostora,

has a virtually inexhaustible supply,

ima, virtualno nepresušive zalihe,

is safe, doesn't put any carbon into the atmosphere,

siguran je, ne emitira ugljik u atmosferu,

doesn't leave any long-lived radioactive waste:

ne ostavlja nikakv radioaktivni otpad koji je aktivan godinama,

it's fusion.

to je fuzija.

But there is a catch. Of course there is always a catch in these cases.

Ali tu je kvaka. Naravno da u takvim slučajevima uvijek postoji kvaka.

Fusion is very hard to do.

Fuziju je teško stvoriti.

We've been trying for 50 years.

Pokušavamo već 50 godina.

Okay. What is fusion? Here comes the nuclear physics.

Dobro. Što je fuzija? Sada dolazi nuklearna fizika.

And sorry about that, but this is what turns me on.

I oprostite zbog toga, ali to je ono što me uzbuđuje.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I was a strange child.

Bio sam čudno dijete.

Nuclear energy comes for a simple reason.

Nuklearna energija dolazi iz jednostavnog razloga.

The most stable nucleus is iron, right in the middle of the periodic table.

Najstabilniji nukleus je željezo, upravo u sredini periodičkog sustava.

It's a medium-sized nucleus.

To je nukleus srednje veličine.

And you want to go towards iron if you want to get energy.

I ako želite dobiti energiju, idete prema željezu.

So, uranium, which is very big, wants to split.

Dakle, uranijum koji je jako velik, se želi rascijepati.

But small atoms want to join together,

Ali mali atomi se žele udružiti,

small nuclei want to join together

mali nukleusi se žele udružiti

to make bigger ones to go towards iron.

kako bi stvorili veće da bi išli prema željezu.

And you can get energy out this way.

I na taj način možete dobiti energiju.

And indeed that's exactly what stars do.

I doista, to je ono što zvijezde čine.

In the middle of stars, you're joining hydrogen together to make helium

Usred zvijezda udružujete vodik kako bi stvorili helij

and then helium together to make carbon,

i zatim udružujete helij kako bi stvorili ugljik,

to make oxygen, all the things that you're made of

kako bi stvorili kisik, sve stvari od kojih ste vi napravljeni

are made in the middle of stars.

su stvorene u sredini zvijezda.

But it's a hard process to do

Ali to je težak proces za postići

because, as you know, the middle of a star is quite hot,

jer, kao što znate, sredina zvijezda je prilično vruća,

almost by definition.

skoro po definiciji.

And there is one reaction

I postoji jedna reakcija.

that's probably the easiest fusion reaction to do.

To je vjerojatno najjednostavnija reakcija fuzije koja se može napraviti.

It's between two isotopes of hydrogen, two kinds of hydrogen:

Nalazi se između dva izotopa vodika, dvije vrste vodika,

deuterium, which is heavy hydrogen,

deuterij, koji je težak vodik,

which you can get from seawater,

koji možete dobiti iz morske vode,

and tritium which is super-heavy hydrogen.

i tritij koji je super-težak vodik.

These two nuclei, when they're far apart, are charged.

Ta dva nukleusa, kada su jako daleko jedan on drugoga, oni su napunjeni.

And you push them together and they repel.

I gurate ih zajedno i oni se odbijaju.

But when you get them close enough,

Ali kada ih dovoljno približite,

something called the strong force starts to act

nešto zvano snažna sila počinje djelovati

and pulls them together.

i vuče ih zajedno.

So, most of the time they repel.

Dakle, većinu vremena oni se odbijaju.

You get them closer and closer and closer and then at some point

Dovedete li ih bliže i bliže i bliže i tada u jednoj točki

the strong force grips them together.

snažna ih sila spoji zajedno.

For a moment they become helium 5,

Za trenutak postanu helij 5,

because they've got five particles inside them.

jer se u njima nalazi pet čestica.

So, that's that process there. Deuterium and tritium goes together

Dakle, to je taj proces. Deuterij i tritij prilikom spajanja

makes helium 5.

tvore helij 5.

Helium splits out, and a neutron comes out

Helij se dijeli, i neutron izlazi van

and lots of energy comes out.

i mnogo energije izlazi van.

If you can get something to about 150 million degrees,

Ukoliko možete dovesti nešto na 150 milijuna stupnjeva,

things will be rattling around so fast

stvari će pucketati tako brzo

that every time they collide in just the right configuration,

da svaki put kada se sudare u pravoj konfiguraciji,

this will happen, and it will release energy.

to će se dogoditi, i oslobodit će energiju.

And that energy is what powers fusion.

I ta energija je ono što napaja fuziju.

And it's this reaction that we want to do.

I to je ta reakcija koju želimo stvarati.

There is one trickiness about this reaction.

Ima jedna kvaka oko te reakcije.

Well, there is a trickiness that you have to make it 150 million degrees,

Pa, kvaka je da morate stvoriti 150 milijuna stupnjeva,

but there is a trickiness about the reaction yet.

ali postoji kvaka i u samoj reakciji.

It's pretty hot.

Prilično je vruće.

The trickiness about the reaction is that

Kvaka oko reakcije jest da

tritium doesn't exist in nature.

tritij ne postoji u prirodi.

You have to make it from something else.

Morate ga stvoriti iz nečeg drugog.

And you make if from lithium. That reaction at the bottom,

A stvorite ga iz litija. Ta reakcija pri dnu,

that's lithium 6, plus a neutron,

to je litij 6, plus neutron,

will give you more helium, plus tritium.

će vam dati više helija, plus tritij.

And that's the way you make your tritium.

I to je način na koji stvorite svoj tritij.

But fortunately, if you can do this fusion reaction,

Na sreću, ukoliko možete stvoriti tu reakciju fuzije,

you've got a neutron, so you can make that happen.

imate neutron, tako da to možete napraviti.

Now, why the hell would we bother to do this?

Sada, zašto bismo se, pobogu, trudili da to učinimo?

This is basically why we would bother to do it.

Ovo je zapravo zašto bismo se trudili da to učinimo.

If you just plot how much fuel

Ako isplanirate koliko goriva

we've got left, in units of

nam je ostalo, u jedinicama

present world consumption.

sadašnje svjetske potrošnje.

And as you go across there you see

I kako idete preko, vidite

a few tens of years of oil -- the blue line, by the way,

nekoliko desetljeća nafte - plava linija, usput rečeno,

is the lowest estimate of existing resources.

je najniža procjena postojećih resursa.

And the yellow line is the most optimistic estimate.

A žuta linija je najoptimističnija procjena.

And as you go across there you will see

I kako idete preko ovoga vidjet ćete

that we've got a few tens of years, and perhaps 100 years

kako nam je ostalo za nekoliko desetljeća, i možda za 100 godina

of fossil fuels left.

fosilnih goriva na raspolaganju.

And god knows we don't really want to burn all of it,

I Bog zna da ne želimo sve to potrošiti.

because it will make an awful lot of carbon in the air.

Jer će se ispustiti mnogo ugljika u zrak.

And then we get to uranium.

I tako dolazimo do uranijuma.

And with current reactor technology

I sa trenutnom tehnologijom reaktora,

we really don't have very much uranium.

doista nam ne preostaje mnogo uranijuma.

And we will have to extract uranium from sea water,

I morat ćemo vaditi uranijum iz morske vode,

which is the yellow line,

koja predstavlja žutu liniju,

to make conventional nuclear power stations

kako bi primorali konvencionalne nuklearne elektrane

actually do very much for us.

da doista rade jako puno za nas.

This is a bit shocking, because in fact our government

To je pomalo šokirajuće, jer, zapravo, naša vlada

is relying on that for us to meet Kyoto,

se oslanja na nas da se pridržavamo Kyota,

and do all those kind of things.

i radimo stvari takve naravi.

To go any further you would have to have breeder technology.

Kako bi išli dalje, morali bi posjedovati tehnologiju uzgajivača.

And breeder technology is fast breeders. And that's pretty dangerous.

A tehnologija uzgajivača se sastoji od brzih uzgajivača. A to je prilično opasno.

The big thing, on the right,

Velika stvar, na desno,

is the lithium we have in the world.

je litij koji nam je dostupan.

And lithium is in sea water. That's the yellow line.

A litij je u morskoj vodi. To je žuta linija.

And we have 30 million years worth of fusion fuel in sea water.

I u morskoj vodi imamo fuzijskog goriva za dodatnih 30 milijuna godina.

Everybody can get it. That's why we want to do fusion.

Svatko može doći do njega. Zato želimo stvarati fuziju.

Is it cost-competitive?

Je li cjenovno konkurentno?

We make estimates of what we think it would cost

Radimo procjene prema kojima razmišljamo koliki bi bio trošak

to actually make a fusion power plant.

zapravo sagraditi fuzijsku elektranu.

And we get within about the same price

I dolazimo do poprilično iste cijene

as current electricity.

kao trenutna struja.

So, how would we make it?

Dakle, kako ćemo to stvoriti?

We have to hold something at 150 million degrees.

Moramo držati nešto na 150 milijuna stupnjeva.

And, in fact, we've done this.

I, u biti, mi smo to napravili.

We hold it with a magnetic field.

Držimo je sa magnetskim poljem.

And inside it, right in the middle of this toroidal shape, doughnut shape,

A unutra, u samoj sredini tog toroidalnog oblika, oblika krafne,

right in the middle is 150 million degrees.

u samoj sredini je 150 milijuna stupnjeva.

It boils away in the middle at 150 million degrees.

Ono ključa u sredini na 150 milijuna stupnjeva.

And in fact we can make fusion happen.

I, u biti, možemo stvoriti fuziju.

And just down the road, this is JET.

I malo dalje uz cestu, ovo je JET.

It's the only machine in the world that's actually done fusion.

To je jedini stroj na svijetu koji je stvorio fuziju.

When people say fusion is 30 years away, and always will be,

Kada ljudi kažu kako je fuzija 30 godina naprijed, i uvijek će biti,

I say, "Yeah, but we've actually done it." Right?

ja kažem, "Da, ali mi smo to napravili." Zar ne?

We can do fusion. In the center of this device

Možemo stvoriti fuziju. U središtu ovog uređaja

we made 16 megawatts of fusion power in 1997.

smo stvorili 16 megawata fuzijske snage 1997.

And in 2013 we're going to fire it up again

A 2013. ćemo ga ponovno upaliti

and break all those records.

i srušiti sve te rekorde.

But that's not really fusion power. That's just making some fusion happen.

Ali to nije prava snaga dobivena iz fuzije. To je samo stvaranje djelića fuzije.

We've got to take that, we've got to make that into a fusion reactor.

Moramo uzeti to, moramo to pretvoriti u fuzijski reaktor.

Because we want 30 million years worth of fusion power for the Earth.

Jer želimo da fuzija vrijedna 30 milijuna godina napaja Zemlju.

This is the device we're building now.

Ovo je uređaj koji sada gradimo.

It gets very expensive to do this research.

Postaje prilično skupo raditi ovo istraživanje.

It turns out you can't do fusion on a table top

Ispostavlja se kako ne možete stvarati fuziju na stolu

despite all that cold fusion nonsense. Right?

unatoč svim besmislicama o hladnoj fuziji. Točno?

You can't. You have to do it in a very big device.

Ne možete. Morate je stvoriti u jako velikom uređaju.

More than half the world's population is involved in building this device

Više od polovice svjetskog pučanstva je uključeno u izgradnju ovog uređaja

in southern France, which is a nice place to put an experiment.

u južnoj Francuskoj. Što je lijepo mjesto za eksperiment.

Seven nations are involved in building this.

Sedam nacija je uključeno u ovu izgradnju.

It's going to cost us 10 billion. And we'll produce half a gigawatt of fusion power.

Stajat će nas 10 milijardi. I stvorit ćemo pola gigawata fuzijske energije.

But that's not electricity yet.

Ali to još nije struja.

We have to get to this.

Moramo doći do toga.

We have to get to a power plant.

Moramo doći do elektrana.

We have to start putting electricity on the grid

Moramo početi stavljati struju u mrežu

in this very complex technology.

po ovoj vrlo kompleksnoj tehnologiji.

And I'd really like it to happen a lot faster than it is.

I stvarno bih htio da se to dogodi puno prije nego što se događa.

But at the moment, all we can imagine is sometime in the 2030s.

Ali u ovom trenutku, to jedino možemo zamisliti negdje u 2030-ima.

I wish this were different. We really need it now.

Volio bih da je drugačije. Stvarno je trebamo sada.

We're going to have a problem with power

Imat ćemo problema sa strujom

in the next five years in this country.

u idućih pet godina u ovoj zemlji.

So 2030 looks like an infinity away.

Stoga se 2030. doima beskonačno daleko.

But we can't abandon it now; we have to push forward,

Ali ne možemo je napustiti sada; moramo gurati naprijed,

get fusion to happen.

učiniti da se stvori fuzija.

I wish we had more money, I wish we had more resources.

Volio bih da imamo više novaca, volio bih da imamo više resursa.

But this is what we're aiming at,

Ali to je ono na što ciljamo,

sometime in the 2030s --

negdje u 2030-ima -

real electric power from fusion. Thank you very much.

stvarna električna snaga iz fuzije. Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)