Comics that ask "what if?" | Randall Munroe

Prevodilac: Stefan Zrnović Lektor: Ivana Korom

So, I have a feature on my website where every week

Imam dodatak na svom vebsajtu gde svake nedelje

people submit hypothetical questions

ljudi postavljaju hipotetička pitanja

for me to answer,

na koja treba da odgovorim.

and I try to answer them using math, science

Pokušavam da odgovorim na njih koristeći matematiku, nauku

and comics.

i stripove.

So for example, one person asked,

Na primer, jedna osoba je pitala:

what would happen if you tried to hit a baseball

šta bi se desilo kada biste pokušali da udarite bejzbol lopticu

pitched at 90 percent of the speed of light?

bačenu jačinom 90% od brzine svetlosti?

So I did some calculations.

Napravio sam neke proračune.

Now, normally, when an object flies through the air,

Uglavnom kada objekat leti kroz vazduh,

the air will flow around the object,

vazduh će strujati oko njega,

but in this case, the ball would be going so fast

ali u ovom slučaju, lopta će ići toliko brzo

that the air molecules wouldn't have time

da molekuli vazduha neće imati vremena da se sklone sa puta.

to move out of the way.

The ball would smash right into and through them,

Loptica bi udarala u, ali i kroz njih,

and the collisions with these air molecules

i sudar sa tim molekulima vazduha

would knock away the nitrogen,

bi istisli azot,

carbon and hydrogen from the ball,

ugljenik i vodonik iz loptice,

fragmenting it off into tiny particles,

deleći ga na sitne čestice

and also triggering waves of thermonuclear fusion

i takođe kidajući talase termonuklearne fuzije

in the air around it.

u vazduh oko njega.

This would result in a flood of x-rays

Ovo bi rezultiralo poplavom rendgenskih zraka

that would spread out in a bubble

koji bi se širili u balon

along with exotic particles,

zajedno sa egzotičnim česticama,

plasma inside, centered on the pitcher's mound,

unutrašnje plazme, centrirane na brdašcu

and that would move away from the pitcher's mound

i to bi pomerilo sa brdašca

slightly faster than the ball.

malo brže nego loptica.

Now at this point, about 30 nanoseconds in,

U tom trenutku, oko 30 nanosekundi

the home plate is far enough away

domašni plato je dovoljno udaljen

that light hasn't had time to reach it,

da svetlo nije imalo vremena da ga dostigne

which means the batter

što znači da udarač

still sees the pitcher about to throw

i dalje vidi bacača kako baca

and has no idea that anything is wrong.

i nema pojma da je nešto pogrešno.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Now, after 70 nanoseconds,

Nakon 70 nanosekundi

the ball will reach home plate,

lopta će dostići domašni plato

or at least the cloud of expanding plasma

ili u najmanju ruku oblak rastuće plazme

that used to be the ball,

koja je bila lopta

and it will engulf the bat and the batter

i progutaće palicu i udarača,

and the plate and the catcher and the umpire

i plato i hvatača i sudiju

and start disintegrating them all

i početi da ih sve razdvaja

as it also starts to carry them backward

kako počinje da ih vraća

through the backstop, which also starts to disintegrate.

kroz zaštitnu mrežu, koja takođe počinje da se razdvaja.

So if you were watching this whole thing

Ako gledate sve ovo

from a hill,

sa brda

ideally, far away,

daleko

what you'd see is a bright flash of light

videli biste jak svetlosni bljesak koji bi izbledeo nakon nekoliko sekundi,

that would fade over a few seconds,

followed by a blast wave spreading out,

praćen eksplozivnim talasom koji se širi

shredding trees and houses

sekući drveće i kuće

as it moves away from the stadium,

dok se pomera od stadiona,

and then eventually a mushroom cloud

a na kraju bi se atomska pečurka

rising up over the ruined city. (Laughter)

izdigla iznad uništenog grada. (Smeh)

So the Major League Baseball rules

Pravila Glavne bejzbol lige

are a little bit hazy,

su pomalo nejasna

but — (Laughter) — under rule 6.02 and 5.09,

ali - (Smeh) - pod pravilom 6.02 i 5.09

I think that in this situation,

mislim da bi u toj situaciji

the batter would be considered hit by pitch

smatrali da je udarač pogođen dobacivanjem

and would be eligible to take first base,

i mogao bi da zauzme prvu bazu

if it still existed.

ako bi i dalje postojala.

So this is the kind of question I answer,

Ovo je vrsta pitanja na koja odgovaram

and I get people writing in with

i ljudi mi pišu

a lot of other strange questions.

dosta drugih čudnih pitanja.

I've had someone write and say,

Neko mi je pisao govoreći:

scientifically speaking, what is the best

"Naučno govoreći, koji je najbolji

and fastest way to hide a body?

i najbrži način sakrivanja tela?

Can you do this one soon?

Možete li da to učinite uskoro?"

And I had someone write in,

Neko je pisao,

I've had people write in about,

ljudi su pitali:

can you prove whether or not you can find love again

možete li dokazati da li je moguće pronaći novu ljubav

after your heart's broken?

nakon slomljenog srca?

And I've had people send in

Neki ljudi su slali

what are clearly homework questions

pitanja tipična za domaće zadatke

they're trying to get me to do for them.

koje su hteli da uradim za njih.

But one week, a couple months ago,

Ali jedne nedelje, pre par meseci

I got a question that was actually about Google.

dobio sam pitanje vezano za Gugl.

If all digital data in the world were stored on punch cards,

Ako su svi digitalni podaci smešteni na bušenoj kartici

how big would Google's data warehouse be?

koliki bi bio Guglov magacin?

Now, Google's pretty secretive about their operations,

Gugl je prilično tajanstven o svojim operacijama,

so no one really knows how much data Google has,

pa gotovo niko i ne zna koliko Gugl podataka ima.

and in fact, no one really knows how many data centers Google has,

Zapravo, niko i ne zna koliko centara podataka ima Gugl,

except people at Google itself.

osim ljudi u Guglu.

And I've tried, I've met them a few times,

Sreo sam ih nekoliko puta,

tried asking them, and they aren't revealing anything.

pokušao da ih pitam, ali oni ništa ne otkrivaju.

So I decided to try to figure this out myself.

Stoga sam odlučio da samostalno otkrijem.

There are a few things that I looked at here.

Postoji nekoliko stvari koje sam ovde posmatrao.

I started with money.

Počeo sam sa novcem.

Google has to reveal how much they spend,

Gugl mora da otkrije koliko su novca potrošili, uopšteno

in general, and that lets you put some caps

tako možemo da ograničimo

on how many data centers could they be building,

koliko centara podataka bi mogli da izgrade

because a big data center costs a certain amount of money.

jer veliki centri podataka koštaju određenu količinu novca.

And you can also then put a cap on

Možete ograničiti količinu

how much of the world hard drive market are they taking up,

tržišta hard diskova koje oni uzimaju,

which turns out, it's pretty sizable.

što ispada prilično srazmerno.

I read a calculation at one point,

Pročitao sam jednom proračune.

I think Google has a drive failure

Mislim da Gugl ima propust sa diskom

about every minute or two,

svakih par minuta

and they just throw out the hard drive

i samo odbacuju hard disk

and swap in a new one.

i dodaju novi.

So they go through a huge number of them.

Troše veliki broj njih.

And so by looking at money,

Posmatrajući kroz novac

you can get an idea of how many of these centers they have.

možete dobiti ideju koliko mnogo ovih centara imaju.

You can also look at power.

Možete posmatrati struju.

You can look at how much electricity they need,

Pogledajte samo koliko im treba struje,

because you need a certain amount of electricity to run the servers,

jer vam treba određena količina da biste pokrenuli servere,

and Google is more efficient than most,

a Gugl je efikasniji nego većina

but they still have some basic requirements,

ali im treba još osnovnih uslova

and that lets you put a limit

i to vam omogućava da ograničite

on the number of servers that they have.

broj servera koje imaju.

You can also look at square footage and see

Možete pogledati kvadraturu i videti,

of the data centers that you know,

za neke centre koje znate,

how big are they?

koliko su veliki.

How much room is that?

Koliko je to prostora?

How many server racks could you fit in there?

Koliko servernih čvorova može tamo stati?

And for some data centers,

Za neke centre podataka,

you might get two of these pieces of information.

možete dobiti dve informacije.

You know how much they spent,

Znate koliko troše,

and they also, say, because they had to contract

i takođe, jer moraju da ugovore

with the local government

sa lokalnom upravom

to get the power provided,

kako bi dobili struju,

you might know what they made a deal to buy,

mogli biste da znate šta su ugovorili da kupe,

so you know how much power it takes.

pa znate koliko struje to iziskuje.

Then you can look at the ratios of those numbers,

Možete videti razmere tih brojeva

and figure out for a data center

i shvatiti da za centre podataka

where you don't have that information,

gde nemate informacije,

you can figure out,

možete otkriti,

but maybe you only have one of those,

ali možda imate jednu od ovih,

you know the square footage, then you could figure out

znate kvadraturu i možete otkriti

well, maybe the power is proportional.

da je možda struja proporcionalna.

And you can do this same thing with a lot of different quantities,

Možete isto uraditi sa različitim količinama,

you know, with guesses about the total amount of storage,

sa pretpostavkama o maksimalnoj količini smeštanja,

the number of servers, the number of drives per server,

broju servera, broju hard diskova po serveru,

and in each case using what you know

i u svakom sučaju koristeći ono što znate

to come up with a model that narrows down

da biste osmislili model koji sužava

your guesses for the things that you don't know.

vaše pretpostavke za stvari koje ne znate.

It's sort of circling around the number you're trying to get.

To je donekle kruženje oko broja koji želite da postignete.

And this is a lot of fun.

I veoma je zabavno.

The math is not all that advanced,

To nije toliko napredna matematika,

and really it's like nothing more than

i nije ništa više

solving a sudoku puzzle.

od rešavanja sudokua.

So what I did, I went through all of this information,

Prošao sam kroz sve te informacije,

spent a day or two researching.

potrošio dan ili dva istražujući.

And there are some things I didn't look at.

Neke stvari nisam promatrao.

You could always look at the Google

Možete uvek da gledate Guglove oglase

recruitment messages that they post.

za zapošljavanje koje postavljaju.

That gives you an idea of where they have people.

To vam daje uvid u to gde imaju ljude.

Sometimes, when people visit a data center,

Ponekad, kada ljudi posete centar podataka

they'll take a cell-cam photo and post it,

slikaće telefonom i postaviće na internet,

and they aren't supposed to,

a ne bi trebalo,

but you can learn things about their hardware that way.

ali možete da naučite nešto o njihovom hardveru na taj način.

And in fact, you can just look at pizza delivery drivers.

U suštini, možete videti raznosače pica.

Turns out, they know where all the Google data centers are,

Ispada da znaju gde su svi Guglovi centri podataka,

at least the ones that have people in them.

barem oni koji imaju ljude tamo.

But I came up with my estimate,

Istupio sam sa svojom procenom,

which I felt pretty good about,

koju sam smatrao veoma dobrom,

that was about 10 exabytes of data

da ima oko 10 eksabajta podataka

across all of Google's operations,

širom svih Guglovih operacija,

and then another maybe five exabytes or so

a potom ostalih otprilike 5 eksabajta

of offline storage in tape drives,

svih oflajn skladišta na strimerima,

which it turns out Google is

čiji je Gugl najveći svetski korisnik.

about the world's largest consumer of.

So I came up with this estimate, and this is

Došao sam do ove procene

a staggering amount of data.

i ovo je zapanjujuća količina podataka.

It's quite a bit more than any other organization

To je dosta više od bilo koje druge organizacije

in the world has, as far as we know.

u svetu, koliko mi poznajemo.

There's a couple of other contenders,

Postoji par drugih kandidata,

especially everyone always thinks of the NSA.

posebno što svako uvek pomisli na Nacionalnu sigurnosnu agenciju.

But using some of these same methods,

Koristeći neke od istih metoda,

we can look at the NSA's data centers,

možemo posmatrati centre podataka NSA

and figure out, you know, we don't know what's going on there,

i otkriti da ne znamo šta se tamo događa.

but it's pretty clear that their operation

ali je prilično jasno da njihove operacije

is not the size of Google's.

nisu veličine Guglovih.

Adding all of this up, I came up with

Sabirajući sve ovo, došao sam

the other thing that we can answer, which is,

do druge stvari na koju možemo odgovoriti, a to je:

how many punch cards would this take?

koliko bušenih kartica bi bilo potrebno?

And so a punch card can hold

Bušena kartica može da sadrži

about 80 characters,

oko 80 karaktera,

and you can fit about 2,000 or so cards into a box,

a možete da uglavite oko 2000 kartica u kutiju

and you put them in, say,

i stavite ih, recimo,

my home region of New England,

moja regija Nove Engleske,

it would cover the entire region

čitava regija bi pokrila dubinu

up to a depth of a little less than five kilometers,

do malo manje od 5 kilometara,

which is about three times deeper

što je oko 3 puta dublje

than the glaciers during the last ice age

od glečera tokom poslednjeg ledenog doba

about 20,000 years ago.

pre oko 20 000 godina.

So this is impractical, but I think

Ovo je nepraktično, ali mislim

that's about the best answer I could come up with.

da je to najbolji odgovor koji mogu da smislim.

And I posted it on my website. I wrote it up.

Postavio sam to na svoj vebsajt. Napisao sam.

And I didn't expect to get an answer from Google,

Nisam očekivao da dobijem odgovor od Gugla

because of course they've been so secretive,

jer naravno, oni su bili veoma tajanstveni,

they didn't answer of my questions,

nisu odgovorili na moja pitanja i stavio sam to i rekao:

and so I just put it up and said,

well, I guess we'll never know.

"Pretpostavljam da nikada nećemo saznati."

But then a little while later

Nakon nekog vremena

I got a message, a couple weeks later, from Google,

dobio sam poruku, par nedelja kasnije od Gugla,

saying, hey, someone here has an envelope for you.

koja kaže: "Hej, neko ovde ima kovertu za tebe."

So I go and get it, open it up,

Uzeo sam je i otvorio

and it's punch cards. (Laughter)

a unutra su bile bušene kartice. (Smeh)

Google-branded punch cards.

Bušene kartice sa logom Gugla.

And on these punch cards, there are a bunch of holes,

Na tim karticama postoji gomila rupica,

and I said, thank you, thank you,

i zahvalio sam se.

okay, so what's on here?

I šta imamo ovde?

So I get some software and start reading it,

Uzeo sam jedan softver i počeo da ga proučavam,

and scan them, and it turns out

da skeniram, i ispada da je to zagonetka.

it's a puzzle.

There's a bunch of code,

Postoji gomila kodova.

and I get some friends to help,

i zato zovem prijatelje da mi pomognu

and we crack the code, and then inside that is another code,

i zajedno krekujemo kod, a onda je unutra drugi,

and then there are some equations,

a zatim su tu neke jednačine, i rešavamo ih,

and then we solve those equations,

and then finally out pops a message from Google

a zatim na kraju iskoči poruka od Gugla

which is their official answer to my article,

koja je njihov zvaničan odgovor na moj članak

and it said, "No comment."

i kaže: "Bez komentara."

(Laughter) (Applause)

(Smeh) (Aplauz)

And I love calculating these kinds of things,

Volim da računam ove stvari,

and it's not that I love doing the math.

nije da volim da se bavim matematikom.

I do a lot of math,

Ima tu dosta matematike,

but I don't really like math for its own sake.

ali ne volim matematiku samu po sebi.

What I love is that it lets you take

Volim to što vam matematika omogućava

some things that you know,

da uzmete neke stvari koje znate

and just by moving symbols around on a piece of paper,

i samo pomeranjem simbola na parčetu papira

find out something that you didn't know

otkrijete nešto što niste znali

that's very surprising.

što je veoma iznenađujuće.

And I have a lot of stupid questions,

Primam dosta glupih pitanja

and I love that math gives the power

i volim što matematika daje snagu

to answer them sometimes.

da ih odgovorim ponekad.

And sometimes not.

A ponekad ne.

This is a question I got from a reader,

Ovo je pitanje koje sam dobio od čitaoca,

an anonymous reader,

anonimnog čitaoca,

and the subject line just said, "Urgent,"

a u naslovu je pisalo: "Hitno."

and this was the entire email:

a ovo je bio čitav mejl:

"If people had wheels and could fly,

"Ako bi ljudi imali točkove i mogli leteti,

how would we differentiate them from airplanes?"

kako bismo ih razlikovali od aviona?"

Urgent. (Laughter)

Hitno. (Smeh)

And I think there are some questions

Mislim da ima nekih pitanja

that math just cannot answer.

na koja matematika ne može da odgovori.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)