Laurie Santos: How monkeys mirror human irrationality

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Sandra Gojic

I want to start my talk today with two observations

Svoj današnji govor želim da počnem dvema opaskama

about the human species.

u vezi sa ljudskom vrstom.

The first observation is something that you might think is quite obvious,

Za prvu možete pomisliti da je nešto sasvim očigledno,

and that's that our species, Homo sapiens,

a to je da je naša vrsta, Homo sapiens,

is actually really, really smart --

stvarno veoma, veoma pametna -

like, ridiculously smart --

kao, neverovatno pametna -

like you're all doing things

svi radite te stvari

that no other species on the planet does right now.

koje nijedna druga vrsta na planeti trenutno ne radi.

And this is, of course,

I ovo, naravno, nije

not the first time you've probably recognized this.

prvi put da ste ovo prepoznali.

Of course, in addition to being smart, we're also an extremely vain species.

Naravno, pored toga što smo pametni, mi smo i veoma sujetna vrsta.

So we like pointing out the fact that we're smart.

Tako da volimo da ističemo činjenicu da smo pametni.

You know, so I could turn to pretty much any sage

Znate, mogla bih da se okrenem bilo kom mudracu,

from Shakespeare to Stephen Colbert

od Šekspira do Stivena Kolbera

to point out things like the fact that

i pokažem naprimer činjenicu

we're noble in reason and infinite in faculties

da smo plemeniti umom, neograničeni po sposobnostima,

and just kind of awesome-er than anything else on the planet

i nekako više super od bilo čega drugog na planeti,

when it comes to all things cerebral.

kada se radi o stvarima s mozgom.

But of course, there's a second observation about the human species

Ali naravno, tu je druga opaska o ljudskoj vrsti

that I want to focus on a little bit more,

na koju želim više da se fokusiram,

and that's the fact that

a to je činjenica da

even though we're actually really smart, sometimes uniquely smart,

iako smo ustvari prilično pametni, ponekad jedinstveno,

we can also be incredibly, incredibly dumb

možemo biti i neverovatno, neverovatno glupi,

when it comes to some aspects of our decision making.

kada se radi o nekim aspektima donošenja odluka.

Now I'm seeing lots of smirks out there.

Vidim dosta usiljenih osmeha.

Don't worry, I'm not going to call anyone in particular out

Ne brinite, neću prozivati nikoga

on any aspects of your own mistakes.

za bilo koji deo vaših ličnih grešaka.

But of course, just in the last two years

Ali naravno, samo u poslednje dve godine

we see these unprecedented examples of human ineptitude.

vidimo nečuvene primere ljudske nesposobnosti.

And we've watched as the tools we uniquely make

I posmatramo kako nam se alati, koje smo napravili

to pull the resources out of our environment

za iskorišćavanje resursa iz okoline,

kind of just blow up in our face.

obijaju o glavu.

We've watched the financial markets that we uniquely create --

Posmatramo kako finansijska tržišta, koja pravimo -

these markets that were supposed to be foolproof --

ta tržišta koja bi trebalo da su otporna na gluposti -

we've watched them kind of collapse before our eyes.

posmatramo kako nam se ruše pred nosom.

But both of these two embarrassing examples, I think,

Ali mislim da oba ova sramotna primera

don't highlight what I think is most embarrassing

ne ističu ono što mislim da je najsramotnije

about the mistakes that humans make,

u vezi sa greškama koje ljudi prave,

which is that we'd like to think that the mistakes we make

a to je da bismo voleli da mislimo da su te greške

are really just the result of a couple bad apples

samo rezultat nekoliko pokvarenih jabuka,

or a couple really sort of FAIL Blog-worthy decisions.

nekoliko odluka koje zaslužuju da se objave na FAIL Blogu.

But it turns out, what social scientists are actually learning

Ali društveni naučnici otkrivaju

is that most of us, when put in certain contexts,

da će mnogi od nas, kad smo stavljeni u određeni kontekst,

will actually make very specific mistakes.

napraviti veoma određene greške.

The errors we make are actually predictable.

Greške koje činimo su predvidive.

We make them again and again.

Činimo ih iznova i iznova.

And they're actually immune to lots of evidence.

A one su imune na mnogo dokaza.

When we get negative feedback,

Kada dobijemo negativnu povratnu informaciju,

we still, the next time we're face with a certain context,

i dalje, i sledećeg puta kada se nađemo u takvoj situaciji

tend to make the same errors.

pravićemo iste greške.

And so this has been a real puzzle to me

Meni je ovo, kao nekome ko proučava ljudsku

as a sort of scholar of human nature.

prirodu, bila prava zagonetka.

What I'm most curious about is,

Najviše me zanima kako

how is a species that's as smart as we are

je jedna vrsta, tako pametna kao što smo mi,

capable of such bad

sposobna da pravi takve

and such consistent errors all the time?

loše i uporne greške?

You know, we're the smartest thing out there, why can't we figure this out?

Znate, mi smo najpametniji koji postoje, kako ne možemo ovo da ukapiramo?

In some sense, where do our mistakes really come from?

Na neki način, odakle naše greške stvarno dolaze?

And having thought about this a little bit, I see a couple different possibilities.

Pošto sam malo razmišljala o ovome, vidim dve mogućnosti.

One possibility is, in some sense, it's not really our fault.

Jedna mogućnost je da, na neki način, nismo mi krivi.

Because we're a smart species,

Pošto smo pametna vrsta,

we can actually create all kinds of environments

možemo da napravimo svakakva okruženja

that are super, super complicated,

koja su super, super komplikovana,

sometimes too complicated for us to even actually understand,

ponekad i previše komplikovana za razumevanje,

even though we've actually created them.

čak iako smo ih mi stvorili.

We create financial markets that are super complex.

Stvaramo finansijska tržišta koja su super-složena.

We create mortgage terms that we can't actually deal with.

Pravimo uslove za hipoteke s kojima baš ne možemo da izađemo na kraj.

And of course, if we are put in environments where we can't deal with it,

I naravno, ako se nađemo u okruženjima s kojima ne možemo da izađemo na kraj,

in some sense makes sense that we actually

na neki način ima smisla da

might mess certain things up.

ćemo možda zeznuti neke stvari.

If this was the case, we'd have a really easy solution

Da se radi o ovome, imali bismo veoma jednostavno rešenje

to the problem of human error.

za problem ljudske greške.

We'd actually just say, okay, let's figure out

Rekli bismo, okej, hajde da vidimo

the kinds of technologies we can't deal with,

s kakvim tehnologijama ne možemo da se izborimo,

the kinds of environments that are bad --

kakva okruženja su loša -

get rid of those, design things better,

otarasimo se njih, bolje osmislimo stvari,

and we should be the noble species

i bili bismo plemenita vrsta

that we expect ourselves to be.

kakva i očekujemo da smo.

But there's another possibility that I find a little bit more worrying,

Ali postoji još jedna mogućnost koja me više brine,

which is, maybe it's not our environments that are messed up.

a to je da možda nije naše okruženje komplikovano.

Maybe it's actually us that's designed badly.

Možda smo mi ti koji smo loše napravljeni.

This is a hint that I've gotten

To je ideja koju sam dobila

from watching the ways that social scientists have learned about human errors.

gledajući kako društvenjaci proučavaju ljudske greške.

And what we see is that people tend to keep making errors

I vidimo da ljudi imaju tendenciju da prave greške

exactly the same way, over and over again.

na potpuno isti način, iznova i iznova.

It feels like we might almost just be built

Kao da smo napravljeni da

to make errors in certain ways.

pravimo greške na određene načine.

This is a possibility that I worry a little bit more about,

O ovoj mogućnosti malo više brinem,

because, if it's us that's messed up,

jer ako smo mi zbrkani,

it's not actually clear how we go about dealing with it.

onda nije jasno kako to da rešimo.

We might just have to accept the fact that we're error prone

Možda moramo da prihvatimo činjenicu da grešimo

and try to design things around it.

i da pokušamo da se uskladimo s tim.

So this is the question my students and I wanted to get at.

To je pitanje na koje smo moji studenti i ja hteli da odgovorimo.

How can we tell the difference between possibility one and possibility two?

Kako da razlikujemo prvu i drugu mogućnost?

What we need is a population

Potrebna nam je populacija

that's basically smart, can make lots of decisions,

koja je dovoljno pametna, može da donosi razne odluke,

but doesn't have access to any of the systems we have,

ali nema pristupa sistemima kojima mi imamo,

any of the things that might mess us up --

bilo kojim stvarima koje nas mogu pobrkati -

no human technology, human culture,

ljudskoj tehnologiji, kulturi,

maybe even not human language.

možda čak ni jeziku.

And so this is why we turned to these guys here.

I zato smo se okrenuli ovim momcima.

These are one of the guys I work with. This is a brown capuchin monkey.

Ovo su neki od momaka s kojima radim. To je braon kapucin majmun.

These guys are New World primates,

To su primati Novog Sveta (Amerika),

which means they broke off from the human branch

što znači da su se odvojili od ljudi

about 35 million years ago.

pre oko 35 miliona godina.

This means that your great, great, great great, great, great --

To znači da je vaša pra, pra, pra, pra, pra, pra -

with about five million "greats" in there --

sa oko pet miliona "pra" -

grandmother was probably the same great, great, great, great

baka bila verovatno ista kao i pra, pra, pra, pra

grandmother with five million "greats" in there

baka, sa pet miliona "pra",

as Holly up here.

od Holi.

You know, so you can take comfort in the fact that this guy up here is a really really distant,

Znate, možete se utešiti da je ovaj momak veoma, veoma dalek,

but albeit evolutionary, relative.

iako evolutivni rođak.

The good news about Holly though is that

Dobra vest u vezi sa Holi je da

she doesn't actually have the same kinds of technologies we do.

ona nema iste vrste tehnologija koje mi imamo.

You know, she's a smart, very cut creature, a primate as well,

Znate, ona je pametno, veoma slatko stvorenje, takođe primat,

but she lacks all the stuff we think might be messing us up.

ali joj nedostaju stvari za koje mislimo da nas zbunjuju.

So she's the perfect test case.

Dakle ona je savršeni subjekat za test.

What if we put Holly into the same context as humans?

Šta ako bismo je stavili u iste situacije kao ljude?

Does she make the same mistakes as us?

Da li će praviti iste greške kao mi?

Does she not learn from them? And so on.

Neće li učiti iz njih? I tako dalje.

And so this is the kind of thing we decided to do.

To je stvar koju smo odlučili da uradimo.

My students and I got very excited about this a few years ago.

Bili smo vrlo uzbuđeni zbog toga pre nekoliko godina.

We said, all right, let's, you know, throw so problems at Holly,

Rekli smo, hajde da damo te probleme Holi

see if she messes these things up.

i vidimo da li će ona upropastiti stvari.

First problem is just, well, where should we start?

Prvi problem je, gde da počnemo?

Because, you know, it's great for us, but bad for humans.

Jer, znate, dobro je za nas, loše za ljude.

We make a lot of mistakes in a lot of different contexts.

Mi pravimo mnogo grešaka u raznim situacijama.

You know, where are we actually going to start with this?

Znate, gde ćemo početi s ovim?

And because we started this work around the time of the financial collapse,

I pošto smo počeli u vreme finansijskog kraha,

around the time when foreclosures were hitting the news,

otprilike kada su stizale vesti o hipotekama,

we said, hhmm, maybe we should

rekli smo, hmm, možda bi trebalo

actually start in the financial domain.

da počnemo od finansijskog polja.

Maybe we should look at monkey's economic decisions

Da proučavamo majmunove ekonomske odluke

and try to see if they do the same kinds of dumb things that we do.

i vidimo da li će raditi iste glupe stvari kao mi.

Of course, that's when we hit a sort second problem --

Naravno, tada smo naišli na drugi problem -

a little bit more methodological --

više metodološke prirode -

which is that, maybe you guys don't know,

a to je, možda vi ne znate, ali

but monkeys don't actually use money. I know, you haven't met them.

majmuni zapravo ne koriste novac. Znam, niste ih upoznali.

But this is why, you know, they're not in the queue behind you

Ali upravo zato ne stoje u redu iza vas

at the grocery store or the ATM -- you know, they don't do this stuff.

u prodavnici ili na bankomatu - znate, oni ne rade ove stvari.

So now we faced, you know, a little bit of a problem here.

Tako smo se suočili sa malim problemom.

How are we actually going to ask monkeys about money

Kako ćemo da pitamo majmune o novcu,

if they don't actually use it?

ako ga oni ne koriste?

So we said, well, maybe we should just, actually just suck it up

Pa smo rekli da bismo možda mogli da

and teach monkeys how to use money.

naučimo majmune kako da koriste novac.

So that's just what we did.

I to smo uradili.

What you're looking at over here is actually the first unit that I know of

Ovde vidite prvi novčić za koji ja znam,

of non-human currency.

a koji nije ljudska valuta.

We weren't very creative at the time we started these studies,

Kad smo počinjali nismo bili mnogo kreativni

so we just called it a token.

pa smo zvali samo token.

But this is the unit of currency that we've taught our monkeys at Yale

Ali ovo je novac koji su majmuni na Jelu

to actually use with humans,

naučili da koriste sa ljudima,

to actually buy different pieces of food.

da kupuju različitu hranu.

It doesn't look like much -- in fact, it isn't like much.

Ne izgleda naročito - i nije ništa posebno.

Like most of our money, it's just a piece of metal.

Kao i većina našeg novca, to je parče metala.

As those of you who've taken currencies home from your trip know,

Kao što znaju oni koji sa putovanja nose novčiće kući,

once you get home, it's actually pretty useless.

kada stignete kući, oni su prilično beskorisni.

It was useless to the monkeys at first

U početku su bili beskorisni i majmunima,

before they realized what they could do with it.

pre nego što su shvatili šta s njima mogu.

When we first gave it to them in their enclosures,

Kada smo im ih prvi put dali, u njihovim kavezima,

they actually kind of picked them up, looked at them.

oni su ih uzeli, gledali.

They were these kind of weird things.

To su bile čudne stvari.

But very quickly, the monkeys realized

Ali ubrzo su majmuni shvatili

that they could actually hand these tokens over

da mogu da predaju ove tokene

to different humans in the lab for some food.

različitim ljudima u laboratoriji i dobiju hranu.

And so you see one of our monkeys, Mayday, up here doing this.

Vidite jednog od naših majmuna, Mejdej, kako to radi.

This is A and B are kind of the points where she's sort of a little bit

Ovo su momenti kada je pomalo zaintrigirana

curious about these things -- doesn't know.

ovim stvarima - ne zna.

There's this waiting hand from a human experimenter,

Tu je eksperimentatorova ruka koja čeka

and Mayday quickly figures out, apparently the human wants this.

i Mejdej brzo shvata da očigledno čovek želi ovo.

Hands it over, and then gets some food.

Predaje ga i dobija nešto hrane.

It turns out not just Mayday, all of our monkeys get good

Ispostavlja se da su Mejdej i

at trading tokens with human salesman.

svi naši majmuni dobri u razmeni tokena sa ljudima.

So here's just a quick video of what this looks like.

Evo kratkog snimka.

Here's Mayday. She's going to be trading a token for some food

Evo je Mejdej. Zameniće token za nešto hrane,

and waiting happily and getting her food.

veselo iščekuje i dobija hranu.

Here's Felix, I think. He's our alpha male; he's a kind of big guy.

Evo ga Felix, mislim. On je alfa mužjak; veliki momak.

But he too waits patiently, gets his food and goes on.

Ali i on strpljivo čeka, dobija hranu, odlazi.

So the monkeys get really good at this.

Dakle majmuni su postali dobri u ovome.

They're surprisingly good at this with very little training.

Iznenađujuće dobro, uz veoma malo obuke.

We just allowed them to pick this up on their own.

Dozvolili smo im da sami ovo nauče.

The question is: is this anything like human money?

Pitanje je: da li je ovo slično ljudskom novcu?

Is this a market at all,

Da li je ovo uopšte tržište,

or did we just do a weird psychologist's trick

ili smo samo uradili čudan trik psihologa,

by getting monkeys to do something,

naveli majmuna da uradi nešto,

looking smart, but not really being smart.

izgleda pametno, ali zapravo nije pametan?

And so we said, well, what would the monkeys spontaneously do

Hteli smo da vidimo šta bi majmuni spontano uradili

if this was really their currency, if they were really using it like money?

da je ovo stvarno njihova valuta, da stvarno koriste ovo kao novac?

Well, you might actually imagine them

Pa, možete da ih zamislite

to do all the kinds of smart things

da rade svakakve pametne stvari

that humans do when they start exchanging money with each other.

koje i ljudi rade kad počnu međusobno da razmenjuju novac.

You might have them start paying attention to price,

Mogu početi da obraćaju pažnju na cenu,

paying attention to how much they buy --

na to koliko kupuju -

sort of keeping track of their monkey token, as it were.

da vode računa o svom novcu.

Do the monkeys do anything like this?

Da li majmuni rade nešto ovakvo?

And so our monkey marketplace was born.

I tako je rođeno naše majmunsko tržište.

The way this works is that

Ovo funkcioniše tako što naši

our monkeys normally live in a kind of big zoo social enclosure.

majmuni uglavnom žive u velikom zoo okruženju.

When they get a hankering for some treats,

Kada požele neku poslasticu,

we actually allowed them a way out

dozvolimo im da izađu

into a little smaller enclosure where they could enter the market.

u manje okruženje odakle ulaze na tržište.

Upon entering the market --

Kada dođu tu -

it was actually a much more fun market for the monkeys than most human markets

to je bilo mnogo zanimljivije majmunima od mnogih ljudskih tržišta

because, as the monkeys entered the door of the market,

jer, kako majmuni uđu,

a human would give them a big wallet full of tokens

tako im jedan čovek da veliki novčanik pun tokena

so they could actually trade the tokens

da bi mogli da ih menjaju

with one of these two guys here --

sa jednim od ovih momaka -

two different possible human salesmen

tu su dva potencijalna ljudska prodavca

that they could actually buy stuff from.

od kojih mogu da kupe stvari.

The salesmen were students from my lab.

Prodavci su moji studenti.

They dressed differently; they were different people.

Obučeni su različito; to su različiti ljudi.

And over time, they did basically the same thing

I vremenom su radili istu stvar

so the monkeys could learn, you know,

da bi majmuni naučili, znate,

who sold what at what price -- you know, who was reliable, who wasn't, and so on.

ko šta prodaje po kojoj ceni - ko je pouzdan, ko nije itd.

And you can see that each of the experimenters

I vidite da svaki eksperimentator

is actually holding up a little, yellow food dish.

drži malu žutu posudu sa hranom,

and that's what the monkey can for a single token.

i to majmuni mogu dobiti za jedan token.

So everything costs one token,

Dakle sve košta jedan token,

but as you can see, sometimes tokens buy more than others,

ali kao što vidite, ponekad tokeni kupuju više,

sometimes more grapes than others.

nekad više grožđa nego drugi tokeni.

So I'll show you a quick video of what this marketplace actually looks like.

Pokazaću vam kratak video kako zapravo izgleda ovo tržište.

Here's a monkey-eye-view. Monkeys are shorter, so it's a little short.

Majmunova perspektiva. Oni su niži, pa je malo manje.

But here's Honey.

Evo je Hani.

She's waiting for the market to open a little impatiently.

Pomalo nestrpljivo čeka da se prodavnica otvori.

All of a sudden the market opens. Here's her choice: one grapes or two grapes.

Otvara se. Evo izbora: jedan grozd ili dva.

You can see Honey, very good market economist,

Vidite Hani, veoma dobar ekonomista,

goes with the guy who gives more.

bira onog ko daje više.

She could teach our financial advisers a few things or two.

Mogla bi da nauči naše finansijske savetnike nekim stvarima.

So not just Honey,

Ne samo ona,

most of the monkeys went with guys who had more.

većina majmuna ide kod momka koji daje više.

Most of the monkeys went with guys who had better food.

Većina njih ide kod onog ko ima bolju hranu.

When we introduced sales, we saw the monkeys paid attention to that.

Kad smo ubacili rasprodaju, majmuni su obratili pažnju na to.

They really cared about their monkey token dollar.

Bilo im je stalo do svog token dolara.

The more surprising thing was that when we collaborated with economists

Iznenadilo nas je kad smo u saradnji sa ekonomistima

to actually look at the monkeys' data using economic tools,

pregledali podatke majmuna koristeći ekonomske pokazatelje,

they basically matched, not just qualitatively,

oni su se poklapali, ne samo kvalitativno,

but quantitatively with what we saw

nego i kvantitativno s onim što smo videli

humans doing in a real market.

da ljudi rade na pravom tržištu.

So much so that, if you saw the monkeys' numbers,

Toliko da, da ste videli cifre majmuna,

you couldn't tell whether they came from a monkey or a human in the same market.

ne biste znali da li su od majmuna ili ljudi sa istog tržišta.

And what we'd really thought we'd done

I mislili smo da smo uspeli

is like we'd actually introduced something

da uvedemo nešto što,

that, at least for the monkeys and us,

bar za nas i za majmune

works like a real financial currency.

funkcioniše kao prava valuta.

Question is: do the monkeys start messing up in the same ways we do?

Pitanje: da li i majmuni počinju da greše kao i mi?

Well, we already saw anecdotally a couple of signs that they might.

Pa, već smo anegdotski videli nekoliko znakova da bi mogli.

One thing we never saw in the monkey marketplace

Jedna stvar koju nikad nismo videli kod majmuna

was any evidence of saving --

je dokaz o štednji -

you know, just like our own species.

znate, kao i kod naše vrste.

The monkeys entered the market, spent their entire budget

Majmuni uđu u prodavnicu, potroše sav budžet

and then went back to everyone else.

i onda odu do ostalih.

The other thing we also spontaneously saw,

Druga stvar koju smo spontano videli,

embarrassingly enough,

za postideti se,

is spontaneous evidence of larceny.

je spontani dokaz o krađi.

The monkeys would rip-off the tokens at every available opportunity --

Majmuni bi pokrali tokene prvom zgodnom prilikom -

from each other, often from us --

jedni od drugih, često od nas -

you know, things we didn't necessarily think we were introducing,

znate, videli smo da se dešavaju one

but things we spontaneously saw.

stvari koje nismo mislili da će se desiti.

So we said, this looks bad.

Rekli smo, ovo izgleda loše.

Can we actually see if the monkeys

Da li možemo da vidimo da li majmuni

are doing exactly the same dumb things as humans do?

rade iste glupe stvari kao i ljudi?

One possibility is just kind of let

Jedna mogućnost je da pustimo

the monkey financial system play out,

da se njihov finansijski sistem odvija,

you know, see if they start calling us for bailouts in a few years.

znate, da vidimo da li će nas zvati za kaucije posle nekoliko godina.

We were a little impatient so we wanted

Bili smo nestrpljivi pa smo želeli

to sort of speed things up a bit.

da nekako ubrzamo stvari.

So we said, let's actually give the monkeys

Rekli smo, hajde da damo majmunima

the same kinds of problems

iste vrste problema

that humans tend to get wrong

u kojima ljudi greše

in certain kinds of economic challenges,

u nekim ekonomskim izazovima,

or certain kinds of economic experiments.

ili nekim ekonomskim eksperimentima.

And so, since the best way to see how people go wrong

I pošto je najbolji način da vidimo kako ljudi greše

is to actually do it yourself,

to da i sami to uradimo,

I'm going to give you guys a quick experiment

daću vam jedan eksperiment

to sort of watch your own financial intuitions in action.

da vidite svoju finansijsku intuiciju u akciji.

So imagine that right now

Zamislite da sada

I handed each and every one of you

dam svakome od vas

a thousand U.S. dollars -- so 10 crisp hundred dollar bills.

hiljadu dolara - 10 šuškavih novčanica od 100 dolara.

Take these, put it in your wallet

Uzmite ih, stavite u novčanik

and spend a second thinking about what you're going to do with it.

i za sekund razmislite šta ćete s njima.

Because it's yours now; you can buy whatever you want.

Jer vaše su; možete kupiti šra god želite.

Donate it, take it, and so on.

Donirati ih, uzeti, itd.

Sounds great, but you get one more choice to earn a little bit more money.

Zvuči super, ali imate još jednu mogućnost da zaradite malo više para.

And here's your choice: you can either be risky,

Evo ga izbor: možete da rizikujete,

in which case I'm going to flip one of these monkey tokens.

u tom slučaju ću baciti jedan od ovih majmunskih tokena.

If it comes up heads, you're going to get a thousand dollars more.

Ako bude glava, dobićete još hiljadu dolara.

If it comes up tails, you get nothing.

Ako bude pismo, ne dobijate ništa.

So it's a chance to get more, but it's pretty risky.

Dakle, prilika da dobijete još, ali prilično rizična.

Your other option is a bit safe. Your just going to get some money for sure.

Druga opcija je sigurna. Sigurno ćete dobiti nešto novca.

I'm just going to give you 500 bucks.

Samo ću vam dati 500 dolara.

You can stick it in your wallet and use it immediately.

Možete ih strpati u novčanik i odmah iskoristiti.

So see what your intuition is here.

Da vidimo kako razmišljate.

Most people actually go with the play-it-safe option.

Većina ljudi se odluči za bezbednu opciju.

Most people say, why should I be risky when I can get 1,500 dollars for sure?

Većina kaže, zašto bih rizikovao, kada mogu sigurno da dobijem 1500 dolara?

This seems like a good bet. I'm going to go with that.

To zvuči kao dobra opcija, izabraću to.

You might say, eh, that's not really irrational.

Možda mislite da to nije baš iracionalno.

People are a little risk-averse. So what?

Ljudi se malo boje rizika. Pa šta?

Well, the "so what?" comes when start thinking

Pa, "pa šta?" nastupa kada počnemo da mislimo

about the same problem

o istom problemu

set up just a little bit differently.

postavljenom malo drugačije.

So now imagine that I give each and every one of you

Sada zamislite da svakome dam

2,000 dollars -- 20 crisp hundred dollar bills.

2000 dolara - 20 šuškavih novčanica od 100 dolara.

Now you can buy double to stuff you were going to get before.

Sada možete da kupite duplo više stvari nego pre.

Think about how you'd feel sticking it in your wallet.

Razmislite kako biste se osećali da ih stavite u novčanik.

And now imagine that I have you make another choice

I sada zamislite da vam dajem još jedan izbor.

But this time, it's a little bit worse.

Ali ovog puta, malo je gore.

Now, you're going to be deciding how you're going to lose money,

Sada ćete odlučivati kako ćete izgubiti novac,

but you're going to get the same choice.

ali dobićete isti izbor.

You can either take a risky loss --

Možete ili rizično da izgubite -

so I'll flip a coin. If it comes up heads, you're going to actually lose a lot.

baciću novčić. Ako bude glava, izgubićete mnogo.

If it comes up tails, you lose nothing, you're fine, get to keep the whole thing --

Ako bude pismo, ne gubite ništa, sve je ok, sve zadržavate -

or you could play it safe, which means you have to reach back into your wallet

ili idete na sigurno, što znači da iz novčanika izvadite

and give me five of those $100 bills, for certain.

i date mi pet tih novčanica od 100$, na sigurno.

And I'm seeing a lot of furrowed brows out there.

Vidim mnogo podignutih obrva.

So maybe you're having the same intuitions

Možda vam je intuicija ista kao

as the subjects that were actually tested in this,

subjektima koji su testirani u ovome,

which is when presented with these options,

a to je kad su suočeni sa ovim opcijama,

people don't choose to play it safe.

ljudi ne biraju da idu na sigurno.

They actually tend to go a little risky.

Imaju tendenciju da malo rizikuju.

The reason this is irrational is that we've given people in both situations

Ovo je iracionalno zbog toga što smo ljudima u obe situacije

the same choice.

dali isti izbor.

It's a 50/50 shot of a thousand or 2,000,

Šansa za 1000 ili 2000$ je 50-50,

or just 1,500 dollars with certainty.

ili samo sigurnih 1500$.

But people's intuitions about how much risk to take

Ali intuicija o tome koliko da se rizikuje

varies depending on where they started with.

varira u zavisnosti od početne pozicije.

So what's going on?

Šta se dešava?

Well, it turns out that this seems to be the result

Pa, ispostavlja se da je to rezultat

of at least two biases that we have at the psychological level.

najmanje dve pristrasnosti koje imamo na psihološkom nivou.

One is that we have a really hard time thinking in absolute terms.

Prvo, veoma nam je teško da razmišljamo u terminima apsolutnosti.

You really have to do work to figure out,

Stvarno treba da se potrudite da razumete,

well, one option's a thousand, 2,000;

pa, jedna opcija je hiljadu, 2000;

one is 1,500.

druga je 1500.

Instead, we find it very easy to think in very relative terms

Umesto toga, veoma nam je lako da mislimo veoma relativno,

as options change from one time to another.

kako se opcije menjaju vremenom.

So we think of things as, "Oh, I'm going to get more," or "Oh, I'm going to get less."

Tako razmišljamo, "O, dobiću više" ili "O, dobiću manje".

This is all well and good, except that

Ovo je sve lepo ali

changes in different directions

promene u različitim pravcima

actually effect whether or not we think

utiču na to da li mislimo da je

options are good or not.

opcija dobra ili nije.

And this leads to the second bias,

Ovo dovodi do druge sklonosti,

which economists have called loss aversion.

što ekonomisti zovu averzija prema gubitku.

The idea is that we really hate it when things go into the red.

Ideja je da mrzimo kada stvari uđu u crvenu zonu.

We really hate it when we have to lose out on some money.

Mrzimo kada treba da izgubimo nešto novca.

And this means that sometimes we'll actually

To znači da ćemo nekad promeniti

switch our preferences to avoid this.

izbore da bismo to izbegli.

What you saw in that last scenario is that

U poslednjem scenariju videli ste

subjects get risky

da su subjekti rizikovali

because they want the small shot that there won't be any loss.

jer žele malu šansu da neće ništa izgubiti.

That means when we're in a risk mindset --

To znači, kad razmišljamo o riziku -

excuse me, when we're in a loss mindset,

pardon, o gubitku,

we actually become more risky,

više rizikujemo,

which can actually be really worrying.

što može biti stvarno zabrinjavajuće.

These kinds of things play out in lots of bad ways in humans.

Ovakve stvari se završavaju na mnoge loše načine po ljude.

They're why stock investors hold onto losing stocks longer --

Zbog toga brokeri dugo pamte gubitke na berzi -

because they're evaluating them in relative terms.

jer ih procenjuju u relativnim odrednicama.

They're why people in the housing market refused to sell their house --

Zbog toga ljudi nisu želeli da prodaju svoje kuće -

because they don't want to sell at a loss.

jer ne žele da prodaju po manjoj ceni.

The question we were interested in

Zanimalo nas je da li

is whether the monkeys show the same biases.

majmuni pokazuju iste sklonosti.

If we set up those same scenarios in our little monkey market,

Ako postavimo iste scenarije u našim majmunskim tržištima,

would they do the same thing as people?

da li će uraditi iste stvari kao ljudi?

And so this is what we did, we gave the monkeys choices

Dali smo majmunima izbore,

between guys who were safe -- they did the same thing every time --

između momaka koji su sigurni - uvek rade istu stvar -

or guys who were risky --

i momaka koji su rizični -

they did things differently half the time.

svaki put rade nešto drugo.

And then we gave them options that were bonuses --

I onda smo im dali opcije bonusa -

like you guys did in the first scenario --

kao vama u prvom scenariju -

so they actually have a chance more,

tako da imaju još jednu šansu,

or pieces where they were experiencing losses --

ili delove gde očekuju gubitke -

they actually thought they were going to get more than they really got.

mislili su da će dobiti više nego što su stvarno dobili.

And so this is what this looks like.

To izgleda ovako.

We introduced the monkeys to two new monkey salesmen.

Predstavili smo im dva nova trgovca.

The guy on the left and right both start with one piece of grape,

Obojica počinju sa dva grozda,

so it looks pretty good.

tako da ovo izgleda prilično dobro.

But they're going to give the monkeys bonuses.

Ali oni će majmunima dati bonuse.

The guy on the left is a safe bonus.

Momak s leve strane je siguran bonus.

All the time, he adds one, to give the monkeys two.

Svo vreme, dodaje jedan, da majmunu da dva.

The guy on the right is actually a risky bonus.

Momak desno je rizični bonus.

Sometimes the monkeys get no bonus -- so this is a bonus of zero.

Ponekad majmun ne dobije bonus - to je bonus od nule.

Sometimes the monkeys get two extra.

Ponekad majmun dobije dva više.

For a big bonus, now they get three.

Za veliki bonus, dobije tri.

But this is the same choice you guys just faced.

Ali to je isti izbor koji je bio pred vama.

Do the monkeys actually want to play it safe

Da li majmuni žele da idu na sigurno

and then go with the guy who's going to do the same thing on every trial,

i onda idu kod momka koji uvek radi istu stvar,

or do they want to be risky

ili žele da rizikuju

and try to get a risky, but big, bonus,

i pokušaju da dobiju rizičan, veliki bonus,

but risk the possibility of getting no bonus.

ali i rizikuju da ga ne dobiju.

People here played it safe.

Ljudi su ovde išli na sigurno.

Turns out, the monkeys play it safe too.

Ispostavlja se da i majmuni idu na sigurno.

Qualitatively and quantitatively,

Kvalitativno i kvantitativno,

they choose exactly the same way as people,

biraju isti način kao i ljudi,

when tested in the same thing.

kada se testiraju u istoj stvari.

You might say, well, maybe the monkeys just don't like risk.

Možete pomisliti da majmuni ne vole rizik.

Maybe we should see how they do with losses.

Možda da vidimo kakvi su sa gubitkom.

And so we ran a second version of this.

Sproveli smo drugu verziju ovoga.

Now, the monkeys meet two guys

Sada majmuni upoznaju dva momka

who aren't giving them bonuses;

koji im ne daju bonuse;

they're actually giving them less than they expect.

daju im manje nego što oni očekuju.

So they look like they're starting out with a big amount.

Izgleda kao da počinju sa velikom sumom.

These are three grapes; the monkey's really psyched for this.

Evo tri grozda; majmun je baš uzbuđen zbog toga.

But now they learn these guys are going to give them less than they expect.

Ali sada saznaju da će im ovi momci dati manje od očekivanog.

They guy on the left is a safe loss.

Momak levo je siguran gubitak.

Every single time, he's going to take one of these away

Svaki put će skloniti jedan

and give the monkeys just two.

i dati majmunima samo dva.

the guy on the right is the risky loss.

Momak desno je rizični gubitak.

Sometimes he gives no loss, so the monkeys are really psyched,

Ponekad nema gubitka, majmuni su veoma uzbuđeni,

but sometimes he actually gives a big loss,

ali ponekad postoji veliki gubitak,

taking away two to give the monkeys only one.

odnosi dva i daje majmunima samo jedan.

And so what do the monkeys do?

I šta majmuni rade?

Again, same choice; they can play it safe

Opet, isti izbor; mogu da idu na sigurno

for always getting two grapes every single time,

i da uvek dobijaju dva grozda,

or they can take a risky bet and choose between one and three.

ili da rizikuju i biraju između jednog i tri.

The remarkable thing to us is that, when you give monkeys this choice,

Izvanredna stvar za nas je, kada date majmunima ovaj izbor,

they do the same irrational thing that people do.

oni rade istu iracionalnu stvar kao i ljudi.

They actually become more risky

Više rizikuju u zavisnosti od toga

depending on how the experimenters started.

kako je eksperiment počeo.

This is crazy because it suggests that the monkeys too

Ovo je ludo jer nagoveštava da i majmuni

are evaluating things in relative terms

procenjuju stvari relativno

and actually treating losses differently than they treat gains.

i drugačije tretiraju gubitke od dobitaka.

So what does all of this mean?

I šta sve ovo znači?

Well, what we've shown is that, first of all,

Pa, prvo, pokazali smo da

we can actually give the monkeys a financial currency,

možemo majmunima dati valutu

and they do very similar things with it.

i oni s njom čine vrlo slične stvari.

They do some of the smart things we do,

Rade neke pametne stvari kao mi,

some of the kind of not so nice things we do,

neke ne tako lepe stvari,

like steal it and so on.

kao što je krađa i slično.

But they also do some of the irrational things we do.

Ali takođe rade i neke iracionalne stvari kao mi.

They systematically get things wrong

Sistematično greše

and in the same ways that we do.

i to na iste načine kao mi.

This is the first take-home message of the Talk,

Prva poruka iz ovog govora koju želim da ponesete

which is that if you saw the beginning of this and you thought,

je ako ste videli početak ovoga i pomislili,

oh, I'm totally going to go home and hire a capuchin monkey financial adviser.

o, definitivno idem kući i zaposliću kapucin majmuna za finansijskog savetnika.

They're way cuter than the one at ... you know --

Mnogo su slađi od onih ... znate -

Don't do that; they're probably going to be just as dumb

Nemojte to da radite; biće verovatno jednako glupi

as the human one you already have.

kao ljudi koje već imate.

So, you know, a little bad -- Sorry, sorry, sorry.

Znate, pomalo loše - izvinite, izvinite, izvinite.

A little bad for monkey investors.

Pomalo loše za majmune investitore.

But of course, you know, the reason you're laughing is bad for humans too.

Ali naravno, razlog zašto se smejete je loš i za ljude.

Because we've answered the question we started out with.

Jer odgovorili smo na pitanje s kojim smo počeli.

We wanted to know where these kinds of errors came from.

Želeli smo da znamo odakle potiču ove greške.

And we started with the hope that maybe we can

I počeli smo sa nadom da ćemo možda moći

sort of tweak our financial institutions,

da podesimo naše finansijske institucije,

tweak our technologies to make ourselves better.

da podesimo tehnologije, da bismo bili bolji.

But what we've learn is that these biases might be a deeper part of us than that.

Ali naučili smo da su možda ove sklonosti možda dublje od toga.

In fact, they might be due to the very nature

One zapravo mogu biti rezultat prirode

of our evolutionary history.

naše evolucione istorije.

You know, maybe it's not just humans

Znate, možda nisu samo ljudi

at the right side of this chain that's duncey.

na ispravnoj strani ovog lanca luckasti.

Maybe it's sort of duncey all the way back.

Možda je sve luckasto odavno.

And this, if we believe the capuchin monkey results,

A to, ako verujemo rezultatima kapucin majmuna,

means that these duncey strategies

znači da su te luckaste strategije

might be 35 million years old.

možda stare 35 miliona godina.

That's a long time for a strategy

To je mnogo vremena da bi se

to potentially get changed around -- really, really old.

neka strategija promenila - veoma, veoma stara.

What do we know about other old strategies like this?

Šta znamo o drugim starim strategijama poput ove?

Well, one thing we know is that they tend to be really hard to overcome.

Pa, znamo da je veoma teško prevazići ih.

You know, think of our evolutionary predilection

Znate, pomislite na našu evolutivnu predispoziciju

for eating sweet things, fatty things like cheesecake.

da jedemo slatke stvari koje goje, kao tortu od sira.

You can't just shut that off.

Ne možete to ignorisati.

You can't just look at the dessert cart as say, "No, no, no. That looks disgusting to me."

Ne možete gledati kolica sa dezertima i reći, "Ne, ne, ne. To mi izgleda odvratno."

We're just built differently.

Drugačije smo napravljeni.

We're going to perceive it as a good thing to go after.

Videćemo to kao dobru stvar koju treba uzeti.

My guess is that the same thing is going to be true

Pretpostavljam da isto važi i

when humans are perceiving

kada ljudi opažaju

different financial decisions.

različite finansijske odluke.

When you're watching your stocks plummet into the red,

Kada gledate kako vam akcije tonu u crvenu zonu,

when you're watching your house price go down,

kada vam cena kuće pada,

you're not going to be able to see that

nećete moći to da vidite

in anything but old evolutionary terms.

drugačije nego u starim evolutivnim terminima.

This means that the biases

To znači da će biti veoma teško

that lead investors to do badly,

prevazići sklonosti koje navode

that lead to the foreclosure crisis

investitore da rade loše

are going to be really hard to overcome.

i koje dovode do hipotekarne krize.

So that's the bad news. The question is: is there any good news?

To su loše vesti. Pitanje je: ima li dobrih vesti?

I'm supposed to be up here telling you the good news.

Trebalo bi da vam ovde govorim dobre vesti.

Well, the good news, I think,

Pa, mislim da sam dobre

is what I started with at the beginning of the Talk,

vesti dala na početku govora,

which is that humans are not only smart;

a to je da ljudi nisu samo pametni;

we're really inspirationally smart

mi smo inspirativno pametni

to the rest of the animals in the biological kingdom.

ostalim životinjama iz biološkog kraljevstva.

We're so good at overcoming our biological limitations --

Dobri smo u prevazilaženju svojih bioloških ograničenja -

you know, I flew over here in an airplane.

znate, doletela sam ovamo avionom.

I didn't have to try to flap my wings.

Nisam morala da probam da mlatim krilima.

I'm wearing contact lenses now so that I can see all of you.

Nosim kontaktna sočiva da bih vas videla.

I don't have to rely on my own near-sightedness.

Ne moram da se oslanjam na svoju kratkovidost.

We actually have all of these cases

Ima mnogo slučajeva

where we overcome our biological limitations

gde prevazilazimo naša biološka ograničenja

through technology and other means, seemingly pretty easily.

tehnologijom i drugim sredstvima, naizgled prilično jednostavno.

But we have to recognize that we have those limitations.

Ali moramo da prepoznamo da imamo ta ograničenja.

And here's the rub.

A evo prepreke.

It was Camus who once said that, "Man is the only species

Kami je jednom rekao da je "Čovek jedina vrsta

who refuses to be what he really is."

koja odbija da bude ono što stvarno jeste".

But the irony is that

Ali ironija je da

it might only be in recognizing our limitations

možda samo prepoznavanjem naših ograničenja

that we can really actually overcome them.

mi možemo da ih stvarno prevaziđemo.

The hope is that you all will think about your limitations,

Nada je u tome da ćete svi razmisliti o svojim ograničenjima,

not necessarily as unovercomable,

ne kao o nepremostivim,

but to recognize them, accept them

ali prepoznati ih, prihvatiti ih,

and then use the world of design to actually figure them out.

i onda iskoristiti sve da ih shvatite.

That might be the only way that we will really be able

To je možda jedini način

to achieve our own human potential

da dostignemo svoj ljudski potencijal

and really be the noble species we hope to all be.

i stvarno budemo plemenita vrsta kako se nadamo.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(aplauz)