Laurie Santos: How monkeys mirror human irrationality

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I want to start my talk today with two observations

Započet ću govor s dva opažanja

about the human species.

o ljudskoj rasi.

The first observation is something that you might think is quite obvious,

Prvo opažanje je nešto što ćete misliti da je očito,

and that's that our species, Homo sapiens,

a govori o tome kako je naša vrsta Homo sapiens

is actually really, really smart --

vrlo vrlo pametna –

like, ridiculously smart --

smiješno pametna –

like you're all doing things

svi radite stvari

that no other species on the planet does right now.

koje druge vrste na ovom planetu ne rade.

And this is, of course,

A ovo sigurno

not the first time you've probably recognized this.

niste prvi put spoznali.

Of course, in addition to being smart, we're also an extremely vain species.

Uz to što smo pametni, također smo i jako tašti.

So we like pointing out the fact that we're smart.

Volimo ukazivati na činjenicu da smo jako pametni.

You know, so I could turn to pretty much any sage

Mogu pokazati bilo koju sagu od

from Shakespeare to Stephen Colbert

Shakespearea do Stephena Colberta

to point out things like the fact that

i ukazati stvari poput činjenice da

we're noble in reason and infinite in faculties

smo plemeniti u razumu i neograničenih sposobnosti

and just kind of awesome-er than anything else on the planet

i da smo fenomenalniji od svega na planetu

when it comes to all things cerebral.

kada su u pitanju sve moždane stvari.

But of course, there's a second observation about the human species

Naravno, postoji drugo opažanje o ljudskoj rasi

that I want to focus on a little bit more,

na kojeg bi se više usredotočila,

and that's the fact that

i činjenica je,

even though we're actually really smart, sometimes uniquely smart,

iako smo zapravo jako pametni, nekada jedinstveno pametni,

we can also be incredibly, incredibly dumb

možemo biti i nevjerojatno, nevjerojatno glupi

when it comes to some aspects of our decision making.

u nekim aspektima donošenja odluka.

Now I'm seeing lots of smirks out there.

Vidim mnogo zlobnih smješkanja.

Don't worry, I'm not going to call anyone in particular out

Ne brinite, neću prozvati nikoga posebno

on any aspects of your own mistakes.

zbog bilo kojeg aspekta vaših vlastitih grešaka.

But of course, just in the last two years

Naravno, u protekle dvije godine

we see these unprecedented examples of human ineptitude.

vidjeli smo ove presedanske primjere ljudske nesposobnosti.

And we've watched as the tools we uniquely make

Gledamo kako alati koje jedinstveno koristimo kako bismo

to pull the resources out of our environment

izvukli sredstva iz našeg okoliša,

kind of just blow up in our face.

eksplodiraju nama u lice.

We've watched the financial markets that we uniquely create --

Gledali smo financijska tržišta koje stvaramo –

these markets that were supposed to be foolproof --

tržišta koja bi trebala biti sigurna –

we've watched them kind of collapse before our eyes.

gledali smo kako nam se ruše pred očima.

But both of these two embarrassing examples, I think,

Za oba ova sramotna primjera, mislim,

don't highlight what I think is most embarrassing

ono što mislim je najsramotnije

about the mistakes that humans make,

o pogrešci koju ljudi čine

which is that we'd like to think that the mistakes we make

a to je da želimo misliti da su pogreške koje učinimo

are really just the result of a couple bad apples

samo rezultat nekoliko loših jabuka

or a couple really sort of FAIL Blog-worthy decisions.

ili nekoliko loših odluka dostojnih blogova.

But it turns out, what social scientists are actually learning

Ispada da ono što socijalni znanstvenici uče

is that most of us, when put in certain contexts,

je kako većina nas, kada je stavljena u određeni kontekst,

will actually make very specific mistakes.

napravit će zapravo specifične pogreške.

The errors we make are actually predictable.

Greške koje radimo su zapravo predvidljive.

We make them again and again.

Radimo ih opet i opet.

And they're actually immune to lots of evidence.

Imune su na mnoge dokaze.

When we get negative feedback,

Kada dobijemo negativnu kritiku,

we still, the next time we're face with a certain context,

još uvijek, idući put kad smo suočeni s određenim kontekstom,

tend to make the same errors.

radimo iste greške.

And so this has been a real puzzle to me

Ovo je bila prava zagonetka za mene

as a sort of scholar of human nature.

kao učenjaka o ljudskoj prirodi.

What I'm most curious about is,

Najviše sam znatiželjna o tome

how is a species that's as smart as we are

kako je vrsta koja je pametna kao mi,

capable of such bad

sposobna za tako loše

and such consistent errors all the time?

i tako dosljedne pogreške cijelo vrijeme?

You know, we're the smartest thing out there, why can't we figure this out?

Znate, najpametniji smo, zašto ne možemo ovo shvatiti?

In some sense, where do our mistakes really come from?

U neku ruku, odakle naše pogreške zapravo dolaze?

And having thought about this a little bit, I see a couple different possibilities.

Razmišljajući o ovome, vidim nekoliko različitih mogućnosti.

One possibility is, in some sense, it's not really our fault.

Jedna mogućnost jest, u neku ruku, da nije zapravo naša krivnja.

Because we're a smart species,

Jer smo pametna vrsta,

we can actually create all kinds of environments

možemo stvoriti svakakve okoline

that are super, super complicated,

koje su super, super komplicirane,

sometimes too complicated for us to even actually understand,

nekada previše komplicirane za nas da bismo shvatili,

even though we've actually created them.

iako smo ih stvorili.

We create financial markets that are super complex.

Stvaramo financijska tržišta koja su jako komplicirana.

We create mortgage terms that we can't actually deal with.

Stvaramo uvjete za kredite s kojima se zapravo ne možemo nositi.

And of course, if we are put in environments where we can't deal with it,

Naravno, ako smo stavljeni u okoliš u kojem se ne možemo snaći,

in some sense makes sense that we actually

u neku ruku je logično da ćemo

might mess certain things up.

pogriješiti u nekim stvarima.

If this was the case, we'd have a really easy solution

Ako je u tome stvar, imamo jako lagano riješenje

to the problem of human error.

za problem ljudske greške.

We'd actually just say, okay, let's figure out

Rekli bismo, ok, hajdemo shvatiti

the kinds of technologies we can't deal with,

vrste tehnologija s kojima se ne znamo nositi,

the kinds of environments that are bad --

koji su okoliši loši –

get rid of those, design things better,

riješimo se tih, dizajniramo stvari bolje,

and we should be the noble species

i bili bismo plemenita vrsta

that we expect ourselves to be.

za kakvu se smatramo.

But there's another possibility that I find a little bit more worrying,

Ali postoji druga mogućnost koju smatram malo više zabrinjavajućom,

which is, maybe it's not our environments that are messed up.

a to je da možda naši okoliši nisu zeznuti.

Maybe it's actually us that's designed badly.

Možda smo mi loše dizajnirani.

This is a hint that I've gotten

Ovo je nagovještaj koji sam dobila

from watching the ways that social scientists have learned about human errors.

gledajući načine na koje socijalni znanstvenici uče o ljudskim pogreškama.

And what we see is that people tend to keep making errors

Vidimo da ljudi i dalje čine greške

exactly the same way, over and over again.

na jednake načine, opet i opet.

It feels like we might almost just be built

Čini se kao da smo možda izgrađeni

to make errors in certain ways.

tako da činimo greške na određeni način.

This is a possibility that I worry a little bit more about,

To je mogućnost oko koje se brinem malo više,

because, if it's us that's messed up,

jer, ako smo mi zbrkani,

it's not actually clear how we go about dealing with it.

nije baš jasno kako ćemo se nositi s tim.

We might just have to accept the fact that we're error prone

Morat ćemo prihvatiti činjenicu da smo skloni pogreškama

and try to design things around it.

i pokušati dizajnirati stvari oko toga.

So this is the question my students and I wanted to get at.

Ovo je pitanje koje smo moji studenti i ja htjeli riješiti.

How can we tell the difference between possibility one and possibility two?

Kako možemo odrediti razliku između prve i druge mogućnosti?

What we need is a population

Trebamo populaciju

that's basically smart, can make lots of decisions,

koja je pametna, može donositi puno odluka,

but doesn't have access to any of the systems we have,

ali nema pristupa nijednom sustavu kojeg imamo,

any of the things that might mess us up --

bilo kojoj stvari koja nas može zeznuti –

no human technology, human culture,

nikava ljudska tehnologija, ljudska kultura,

maybe even not human language.

možda čak ni ljudski jezik.

And so this is why we turned to these guys here.

Pa smo se okrenuli ovim tipovima ovdje.

These are one of the guys I work with. This is a brown capuchin monkey.

Ovo je jedan tip s kojim radim. Ovo je smeđi kapucin.

These guys are New World primates,

Ovo su primati Novoga svijeta,

which means they broke off from the human branch

što znači da su prekinuli s ljudskom granom

about 35 million years ago.

prije 35 milijuna godina.

This means that your great, great, great great, great, great --

To znači da je vaša pra pra pra pra pra pra –

with about five million "greats" in there --

uz još oko pet milijuna "pra" --

grandmother was probably the same great, great, great, great

baka, bila vjerojatno ista pra pra pra pra

grandmother with five million "greats" in there

baka uz još pet milijuna "pra",

as Holly up here.

kao i Hollyina.

You know, so you can take comfort in the fact that this guy up here is a really really distant,

Stoga vam može biti utješna činjenica da je ovaj tip zapravo stvarno daleki,

but albeit evolutionary, relative.

iako evolucijski, rođak.

The good news about Holly though is that

Dobre vijesti o Holly su da

she doesn't actually have the same kinds of technologies we do.

ona nema iste vrste tehnologije poput nas.

You know, she's a smart, very cut creature, a primate as well,

Znate, pametna je, odvojeno biće, primat također,

but she lacks all the stuff we think might be messing us up.

ali fale joj sve stvari za koje mislimo da bi nas mogle zeznuti.

So she's the perfect test case.

Ona je savršen testni primjerak.

What if we put Holly into the same context as humans?

Što ako stavimo Holly u isti kontekst kao ljude?

Does she make the same mistakes as us?

Hoće li učiniti iste greške kao mi?

Does she not learn from them? And so on.

Hoće li naučiti iz njih? I tako dalje.

And so this is the kind of thing we decided to do.

Ovo je nešto što smo odlučili napraviti.

My students and I got very excited about this a few years ago.

Moji studenti i ja smo bili vrlo uzbuđeni oko toga prije par godina.

We said, all right, let's, you know, throw so problems at Holly,

Rekli smo, u redu, hajdemo, znate, baciti par problema na Holly,

see if she messes these things up.

da vidimo hoće li uprskati.

First problem is just, well, where should we start?

Prvi problem je, gdje da počnemo?

Because, you know, it's great for us, but bad for humans.

Jer, dobro je za nas, ali loše za ljude.

We make a lot of mistakes in a lot of different contexts.

Radimo mnogo grešaka u mnogo različitih konteksta.

You know, where are we actually going to start with this?

Znate, gdje ćemo zapravo početi s ovim?

And because we started this work around the time of the financial collapse,

I pošto smo započeli s ovim radom u vrijeme financijske krize,

around the time when foreclosures were hitting the news,

kada su gubici prava bili glavne vijesti,

we said, hhmm, maybe we should

rekli smo, hm, možda bismo mogli

actually start in the financial domain.

početi u financijskoj domeni.

Maybe we should look at monkey's economic decisions

Možda bismo mogli vidjeti donošenje ekonomskih odluka

and try to see if they do the same kinds of dumb things that we do.

u majmuna i pokušati vidjeti rade li iste glupe stvari kao i mi.

Of course, that's when we hit a sort second problem --

Naravno, tada smo udarili u drugi problem –

a little bit more methodological --

više metodologijski –

which is that, maybe you guys don't know,

možda ne znate,

but monkeys don't actually use money. I know, you haven't met them.

ali majmuni zapravo ne koriste novac. Znam, niste ih upoznali.

But this is why, you know, they're not in the queue behind you

Ali zato, znate, nisu u redu iza vas

at the grocery store or the ATM -- you know, they don't do this stuff.

u trgovini ili na bankomatu – znate, oni ne rade te stvari.

So now we faced, you know, a little bit of a problem here.

Sada smo suočeni s malim problemom.

How are we actually going to ask monkeys about money

Kako ćemo pitati majmune o novcu

if they don't actually use it?

ako ga oni zapravo ne koriste?

So we said, well, maybe we should just, actually just suck it up

Rekli smo, možda bismo samo

and teach monkeys how to use money.

trebali naučiti majmune kako se koristo novac.

So that's just what we did.

To smo i napravili.

What you're looking at over here is actually the first unit that I know of

Ovo što gledate ovdje je zapravo prva grupa znanih

of non-human currency.

ne-ljudskih valuta.

We weren't very creative at the time we started these studies,

Nismo bili jako kreativni u to vrijeme kada smo počeli studiju,

so we just called it a token.

pa smo ih nazvali žetonima.

But this is the unit of currency that we've taught our monkeys at Yale

Ali naše majmune na Yale-u smo naučili

to actually use with humans,

da koriste ovu valutu zajedno s ljudima,

to actually buy different pieces of food.

zapravo da kupe različite vrste hrane.

It doesn't look like much -- in fact, it isn't like much.

Ne izgleda kao puno – zapravo, nije puno.

Like most of our money, it's just a piece of metal.

Kao većina našeg novca, samo je komad metala.

As those of you who've taken currencies home from your trip know,

Vi koji ste ponijeli valute kući sa nekog putovanja znate,

once you get home, it's actually pretty useless.

jednom kad dođete kući, zapravo su beskorisne.

It was useless to the monkeys at first

Bilo je beskorisno i majmunima

before they realized what they could do with it.

dok nisu shvatili što mogu s njom.

When we first gave it to them in their enclosures,

Kada smo im prvi put dali u njihovom ograđenom prostoru,

they actually kind of picked them up, looked at them.

zapravo su ih podigli i gledali u njih.

They were these kind of weird things.

Bile su to nekakve čudne stvari.

But very quickly, the monkeys realized

Ali ubrzo, majmuni su shvatili

that they could actually hand these tokens over

da mogu dati te žetone

to different humans in the lab for some food.

različitim ljudima u laboratoriju u zamjenu za hranu.

And so you see one of our monkeys, Mayday, up here doing this.

Vidite ovdje jednog našeg majmuna, Maydaya, kako radi to.

This is A and B are kind of the points where she's sort of a little bit

A i B su točke gdje je ona malo

curious about these things -- doesn't know.

znatiželjna oko tih stvari – ne zna.

There's this waiting hand from a human experimenter,

Ovdje je ruka ljudskog istraživača koja čeka,

and Mayday quickly figures out, apparently the human wants this.

i Mayday je brzo shvatila, očito čovjek želi to.

Hands it over, and then gets some food.

Preda mu žeton i dobije neku hranu.

It turns out not just Mayday, all of our monkeys get good

Ispalo je da ne samo Mayday, već svi su naši majmuni postali dobri

at trading tokens with human salesman.

u trgovanju žetonima sa ljudskim trgovcima.

So here's just a quick video of what this looks like.

Evo kratki video kako je to izgledalo.

Here's Mayday. She's going to be trading a token for some food

Ovo je Mayday. Ona će zamijeniti žeton za hranu

and waiting happily and getting her food.

i sretno čekati i dobiti hranu.

Here's Felix, I think. He's our alpha male; he's a kind of big guy.

Ovo je Felix. Mislim. On je naš alfa mužjak; dosta je velik.

But he too waits patiently, gets his food and goes on.

Ali i on čeka strpljivo, dobije hranu i ode.

So the monkeys get really good at this.

Majmuni su postali jako dobri u ovome.

They're surprisingly good at this with very little training.

Iznenađujuće su dobri u ovome sa jako malo treninga.

We just allowed them to pick this up on their own.

Dopustili smo im da to pohvataju sami.

The question is: is this anything like human money?

Pitanje je: je li to slično ljudskom novcu?

Is this a market at all,

Je li to uopće tržište,

or did we just do a weird psychologist's trick

ili smo uradili čudni psihološki trik

by getting monkeys to do something,

s tim što smo natjerali majmune da urade nešto,

looking smart, but not really being smart.

izgledaju pametno, ali da nisu zapravo pametni.

And so we said, well, what would the monkeys spontaneously do

Rekli smo, što bi majmuni spontano napravili

if this was really their currency, if they were really using it like money?

da je ovo njihova valuta, ako bi ju zaista koristili kao novac?

Well, you might actually imagine them

Možete ih zapravo zamisliti kako

to do all the kinds of smart things

rade sve pametne stvari

that humans do when they start exchanging money with each other.

kao i ljudi kada zamjenuju novac međusobno.

You might have them start paying attention to price,

Možda bi počeli opažati cijenu

paying attention to how much they buy --

ili koliko će kupiti -

sort of keeping track of their monkey token, as it were.

pratiti gdje je njihov majmunski žeton.

Do the monkeys do anything like this?

Rade li majmuni nešto slično tome?

And so our monkey marketplace was born.

I tako je rođeno naše tržište za majmune.

The way this works is that

Način na koji to radi je da

our monkeys normally live in a kind of big zoo social enclosure.

naši majmuni normalno žive u velikom ograđenom prostoru u zoološkom.

When they get a hankering for some treats,

Kada su imali žudnju za nekim poslasticama,

we actually allowed them a way out

dopustili smo im da uđu

into a little smaller enclosure where they could enter the market.

u malo manji ograđeni prostor u kojem su mogli ući na tržnicu.

Upon entering the market --

Ulazeći na tržište –

it was actually a much more fun market for the monkeys than most human markets

bilo je to mnogo zabavnije tržište za majmune nego većina ljudskih tržišta,

because, as the monkeys entered the door of the market,

jer kad su majmuni ušli na tržište,

a human would give them a big wallet full of tokens

čovjek bi im dao hrpu žetona

so they could actually trade the tokens

kako bi mogli mijenjati žetone

with one of these two guys here --

sa dva čovjeka tamo –

two different possible human salesmen

dva različita ljudska trgovca

that they could actually buy stuff from.

od kojih su zapravo mogli kupiti stvari.

The salesmen were students from my lab.

Trgovci su bili studenti iz laboratorija.

They dressed differently; they were different people.

Različito su se obukli; bili su različiti ljudi.

And over time, they did basically the same thing

Nakon nekog vremena, radili su jednaku stvar

so the monkeys could learn, you know,

kako bi majmuni mogli naučiti

who sold what at what price -- you know, who was reliable, who wasn't, and so on.

tko je prodao što po kojoj cijeni – znate, tko je bio pouzdan, tko nije, i tako dalje.

And you can see that each of the experimenters

Možete vidjeti kako je većina istraživača

is actually holding up a little, yellow food dish.

držala malu žutu posudu za hranu.

and that's what the monkey can for a single token.

I to je sve što majmun može dobiti za jedan žeton.

So everything costs one token,

Sve košta jedan žeton,

but as you can see, sometimes tokens buy more than others,

ali kao što možete vidjeti, nekada neki žetoni kupe mnogo više nego ostali,

sometimes more grapes than others.

nekada mnogo više zrna grožđa nego ostali.

So I'll show you a quick video of what this marketplace actually looks like.

Dakle, pokazat ću vam kratak video o tome kako zaista izgleda ovo tržište.

Here's a monkey-eye-view. Monkeys are shorter, so it's a little short.

Ovako to vidi majmun. Majmuni su niži, dakle malo je niži.

But here's Honey.

Ali ovdje je Honey.

She's waiting for the market to open a little impatiently.

Ona nestrpljivo čeka da se dućan otvori.

All of a sudden the market opens. Here's her choice: one grapes or two grapes.

Odjednom, dućan se otvara. Ovo je njen izbor: jedan grozd ili dva grozda.

You can see Honey, very good market economist,

Možete vidjeti Honey, veoma dobru ekonomisticu tržišta

goes with the guy who gives more.

sa čovjekom koji daje više.

She could teach our financial advisers a few things or two.

Mogla bi naučiti naše financijske savjetnike nekim stvarima.

So not just Honey,

Dakle, ne samo Honey,

most of the monkeys went with guys who had more.

nego većina majmuna je otišla s onim koji je imao više.

Most of the monkeys went with guys who had better food.

Većina majmuna je otišla s onima koji su imali bolju hranu.

When we introduced sales, we saw the monkeys paid attention to that.

Kad smo predstavili rasprodaje, vidjeli smo da su majmuni obratili pažnju na to.

They really cared about their monkey token dollar.

Zaista su pazili na njihove majmunske dolare u obliku žetona.

The more surprising thing was that when we collaborated with economists

Iznenađujuće je bilo to što kada smo surađivali sa ekonomistima

to actually look at the monkeys' data using economic tools,

da zapravo pogledamo podatke koristeći ekonomske alate,

they basically matched, not just qualitatively,

oni su se zapravo podudarali, ne samo kvalitativno,

but quantitatively with what we saw

već kvantitativno s onim što smo vidjeli

humans doing in a real market.

da ljudi rade na pravoj tržnici.

So much so that, if you saw the monkeys' numbers,

Čak toliko da kada ste vidjeli rezultate majmuna,

you couldn't tell whether they came from a monkey or a human in the same market.

niste mogli reći da li su to rezultati majmuna ili rezultati čovjeka na istom tržištu.

And what we'd really thought we'd done

I ono što smo zaista mislili da smo učinili

is like we'd actually introduced something

je to da smo zaista predstavili nešto,

that, at least for the monkeys and us,

što barem za majmune i nas,

works like a real financial currency.

izgleda kao prava financijska valuta.

Question is: do the monkeys start messing up in the same ways we do?

Pitanje je: da li majmuni počinju brljati na isti način kao i mi?

Well, we already saw anecdotally a couple of signs that they might.

Pa, već smo vidjeli nekoliko zabavnih primjera koji idu tome u prilog.

One thing we never saw in the monkey marketplace

Jedna stvar koju nismo nikada vidjeli na majmunskoj tržnici

was any evidence of saving --

je ta da nema nikakvog dokaza o štednji –

you know, just like our own species.

znate, kao što to radi naša vrsta.

The monkeys entered the market, spent their entire budget

Majmuni uđu na tržnicu, potroše sav svoj budžet

and then went back to everyone else.

i onda se vrate svima ostalima.

The other thing we also spontaneously saw,

Druga stvar koju smo također spontano vidjeli,

embarrassingly enough,

dovoljno sramotno,

is spontaneous evidence of larceny.

je spontani dokaz o razbojništvu.

The monkeys would rip-off the tokens at every available opportunity --

Majmuni bi otkinuli žetone u svakoj raspoloživoj prilici –

from each other, often from us --

jedan od drugog, često od nas –

you know, things we didn't necessarily think we were introducing,

znate, stvari za koje nismo nužno mislili da predstavljamo,

but things we spontaneously saw.

ali stvari koje smo spontano vidjeli.

So we said, this looks bad.

Zatim smo rekli, ovo izgleda loše.

Can we actually see if the monkeys

Možemo li zaista vidjeti kako majmuni

are doing exactly the same dumb things as humans do?

rade totalno iste glupe stvari kao i ljudi?

One possibility is just kind of let

Jedna mogućnost je da nekako pustimo

the monkey financial system play out,

da se majmunski financijski sistem odigra,

you know, see if they start calling us for bailouts in a few years.

znate, da vidimo da li bi nas zvali za nekoliko godina da ih izbavimo iz zatvora uz jamčevinu.

We were a little impatient so we wanted

Bili smo pomalo nestrpljivi pa smo željeli

to sort of speed things up a bit.

nekako ubrzati stvari.

So we said, let's actually give the monkeys

Pa smo rekli, hajdemo zaista dati majmunima

the same kinds of problems

istu vrstu problema

that humans tend to get wrong

u kojoj ljudi znaju pogriješiti

in certain kinds of economic challenges,

u određenim vrstama ekonomskih izazova

or certain kinds of economic experiments.

ili određenim vrstama ekonomskih eksperimenata.

And so, since the best way to see how people go wrong

I tako, s obzirom da je najbolji način da vidimo kako ljudi griješe

is to actually do it yourself,

taj da to zapravo učinite sami,

I'm going to give you guys a quick experiment

dat ću vam brzi eksperiment

to sort of watch your own financial intuitions in action.

kako bi vidjeli vlastite financijske ustanove na djelu.

So imagine that right now

Dakle, zamislite da sam upravo sada

I handed each and every one of you

svakome od vas dala

a thousand U.S. dollars -- so 10 crisp hundred dollar bills.

tisuću američkih dolara – dakle 10 svježih novčanica od sto dolara.

Take these, put it in your wallet

Uzmite ih, stavite u novčanik

and spend a second thinking about what you're going to do with it.

i na sekundu pomislite što ćete učiniti s njima.

Because it's yours now; you can buy whatever you want.

Zato što je to sada vaše, možete kupiti što god poželite.

Donate it, take it, and so on.

Donirajte ih, uzmite ih i tako dalje.

Sounds great, but you get one more choice to earn a little bit more money.

Zvuči odlično, ali dobili ste još jedan izbor da bi zaradili još više novaca.

And here's your choice: you can either be risky,

I evo vašeg izbora: možete riskirati,

in which case I'm going to flip one of these monkey tokens.

a u tom slučaju bacit ću jedan od ovih majmunskih žetona.

If it comes up heads, you're going to get a thousand dollars more.

Ako se okrene glava, dobit ćete tisuću dolara više.

If it comes up tails, you get nothing.

Ako se okrene pismo, nećete dobiti ništa.

So it's a chance to get more, but it's pretty risky.

Dakle, to je šansa da dobijete više, ali je prilično riskantna.

Your other option is a bit safe. Your just going to get some money for sure.

Vaša druga opcija je malo sigurnija. Sigurno ćete dobiti nešto novaca.

I'm just going to give you 500 bucks.

Dat ću vam samo 500 dolara.

You can stick it in your wallet and use it immediately.

Možete ih pospremiti u novčanik i odmah upotrijebiti.

So see what your intuition is here.

Pa vidite kuda vas vodi intuicija.

Most people actually go with the play-it-safe option.

Većina ljudi zapravo uzme opciju igranja na sigurno.

Most people say, why should I be risky when I can get 1,500 dollars for sure?

Većina ljudi kaže, zašto bih riskirao kad mogu sigurno dobiti 1.500 dolara?

This seems like a good bet. I'm going to go with that.

To izgleda kao dobra oklada. Izabrat ću tu.

You might say, eh, that's not really irrational.

Mogli biste reći, eh, to nije baš iracionalno.

People are a little risk-averse. So what?

Ljudi nekako nisu skloni riziku. Pa što?

Well, the "so what?" comes when start thinking

Pa, to „pa što“ dolazi kad krenemo razmišljati

about the same problem

o istom problemu

set up just a little bit differently.

na malo drugačiji način.

So now imagine that I give each and every one of you

Sad zamislite da svakome od vas

2,000 dollars -- 20 crisp hundred dollar bills.

dam 2.000 dolara – 20 svježih novčanica od sto dolara.

Now you can buy double to stuff you were going to get before.

Sada možete kupiti duplo više stvari nego prije.

Think about how you'd feel sticking it in your wallet.

Razmislite o tome kako bi ih bilo pospremiti u novčanik.

And now imagine that I have you make another choice

I sad zamislite kako morate učiniti još jedan izbor.

But this time, it's a little bit worse.

Ali ovaj put je malo gori.

Now, you're going to be deciding how you're going to lose money,

Sada ćete odlučiti kako ćete izgubiti novac,

but you're going to get the same choice.

ali ćete dobiti isti izbor.

You can either take a risky loss --

Možete ili odabrati riskantan gubitak –

so I'll flip a coin. If it comes up heads, you're going to actually lose a lot.

bacanje novčića. Ako se okrene glava, zaista ćete mnogo izgubiti.

If it comes up tails, you lose nothing, you're fine, get to keep the whole thing --

Ako se okrene pismo, ne gubite ništa, dobro ste, možete sve zadržati –

or you could play it safe, which means you have to reach back into your wallet

ili možete igrati na sigurno, što znači da morate posegnuti u svoj novčanik

and give me five of those $100 bills, for certain.

i svakako mi dati pet tih novčanica od 100 dolara.

And I'm seeing a lot of furrowed brows out there.

I sad vidim ovdje mnogo namrštenih lica.

So maybe you're having the same intuitions

Dakle, možda imate istu intuiciju

as the subjects that were actually tested in this,

kao i subjekti koji su zaista bili testirani,

which is when presented with these options,

a to je da kada se iznesu ove opcije,

people don't choose to play it safe.

ljudi ne izaberu igranje na sigurno.

They actually tend to go a little risky.

Zapravo imaju tendenciju da idu na rizik.

The reason this is irrational is that we've given people in both situations

Razlog zbog kojeg je ovo iracionalno je taj što smo ljudima u obje situacije

the same choice.

dali isti izbor.

It's a 50/50 shot of a thousand or 2,000,

To je pola-pola šansa za tisuću ili 2.000,

or just 1,500 dollars with certainty.

ili samo sigurnih 1.500.

But people's intuitions about how much risk to take

Ali ljudska intuicija o tome koliko riskirati

varies depending on where they started with.

ovisi o tome sa koliko su započeli.

So what's going on?

Dakle, što se događa?

Well, it turns out that this seems to be the result

Izgleda da je to rezultat

of at least two biases that we have at the psychological level.

najmanje dvije predrasude koje imamo na psihološkoj razini.

One is that we have a really hard time thinking in absolute terms.

Jedna je ta da nam je zaista teško razmišljati o apsolutnom iznosu.

You really have to do work to figure out,

Zaista morate raditi da bi shvatili,

well, one option's a thousand, 2,000;

pa, jedna opcija je tisuću, 2.000;

one is 1,500.

jedna je 1.500.

Instead, we find it very easy to think in very relative terms

Umjesto toga, veoma nam je lako razmišljati u veoma relativnim iznosima

as options change from one time to another.

kao opcije mijenjanja jednog vremena za drugo.

So we think of things as, "Oh, I'm going to get more," or "Oh, I'm going to get less."

Dakle, razmišljamo stvari poput ovih, „Oh, dobit ću više“ ili „Oh, dobit ću manje."

This is all well and good, except that

Sve ovo je dobro i u redu, osim toga

changes in different directions

što se promjene u različitim smjerovima

actually effect whether or not we think

zapravo odražavaju na temelju toga da li smatramo

options are good or not.

da li su opcije dobre ili loše.

And this leads to the second bias,

A to vodi do druge predrasude

which economists have called loss aversion.

koju ekonomisti zovu averzija gubitka.

The idea is that we really hate it when things go into the red.

Pomisao je ta da zaista mrzimo kad stvari odu u crveno.

We really hate it when we have to lose out on some money.

Mi zaista mrzimo kad moramo izgubiti na novcu.

And this means that sometimes we'll actually

A to znači da ponekad zaista

switch our preferences to avoid this.

zamjenimo naše prioritete da bi to izbjegli.

What you saw in that last scenario is that

Ovo što ste vidjeli u zadnjem scenariju je to

subjects get risky

da subjekti idu na rizik

because they want the small shot that there won't be any loss.

zato što žele imati malu šansu kako neće biti ikakvih gubitaka.

That means when we're in a risk mindset --

To znači da kada smo u riskantnom stanju uma –

excuse me, when we're in a loss mindset,

oprostite, kada smo u stanju uma za gubitak,

we actually become more risky,

zapravo postajemo mnogo više skloniji riziku,

which can actually be really worrying.

što zaista može biti zabrinjavajuće.

These kinds of things play out in lots of bad ways in humans.

Ovakve stvari za ljude na mnogo načina ispadnu loše.

They're why stock investors hold onto losing stocks longer --

Eto zašto burzovni ulagači duže drže gubitničke dionice –

because they're evaluating them in relative terms.

zato što ih procjenjuju u relativnim uvjetima.

They're why people in the housing market refused to sell their house --

Eto zašto ljudi na stambenom tržištu odbijaju prodati svoje kuće –

because they don't want to sell at a loss.

zato što ih ne žele prodati s gubitkom.

The question we were interested in

Pitanje koje nas je zanimalo je

is whether the monkeys show the same biases.

da li majmuni pokazuju iste predrasude.

If we set up those same scenarios in our little monkey market,

Ako postavimo iste scenarije na našoj maloj majmunskoj tržinici,

would they do the same thing as people?

hoće li učiniti iste stvari kao i ljudi?

And so this is what we did, we gave the monkeys choices

I evo što smo učinili, dali smo majmunima izbor

between guys who were safe -- they did the same thing every time --

između tipova koji su sigurni – učinili su istu stvar svaki put –

or guys who were risky --

ili tipova koji su riskantni –

they did things differently half the time.

radili su različite stvari pola vremena.

And then we gave them options that were bonuses --

I onda smo im dali opcije koje su bile bonusi –

like you guys did in the first scenario --

kao što ste vi učinili u prvom scenariju –

so they actually have a chance more,

a oni zapravo imaju šansu više,

or pieces where they were experiencing losses --

ili komadiće u kojima su doživjeli gubitke –

they actually thought they were going to get more than they really got.

oni su zaista mislili da će dobiti više no što su zaista dobili.

And so this is what this looks like.

I evo kako to izgleda.

We introduced the monkeys to two new monkey salesmen.

Predstavili smo majmunima dva nova majmuna prodavača.

The guy on the left and right both start with one piece of grape,

Tip s lijeva i s desna su počeli s jednim komadom grožđa,

so it looks pretty good.

pa to izgleda relativno dobro.

But they're going to give the monkeys bonuses.

Ali počet će davati bonuse majmunima.

The guy on the left is a safe bonus.

Tip na lijevoj strani je siguran bonus.

All the time, he adds one, to give the monkeys two.

Svo vrijeme, on dodaje jedan, da bi dao majmunima dva.

The guy on the right is actually a risky bonus.

Tip s desne strane je zapravo rizičan bonus.

Sometimes the monkeys get no bonus -- so this is a bonus of zero.

Ponekad majmuni ne dobiju bonus – dakle ovo je nula bonus.

Sometimes the monkeys get two extra.

Ponekad majmuni dobiju dva više.

For a big bonus, now they get three.

Za veliki bonus, sad dobiju tri.

But this is the same choice you guys just faced.

Ali to je isti bonus s kojim ste se vi maloprije suočili.

Do the monkeys actually want to play it safe

Žele li majmuni zapravo igrati na sigurno i

and then go with the guy who's going to do the same thing on every trial,

otići do tipa koji će učiniti istu stvar u svakom iskušenju

or do they want to be risky

ili žele ići na rizik

and try to get a risky, but big, bonus,

i pokušati dobiti riskantan, ali veliki bonus

but risk the possibility of getting no bonus.

s time da je šansa da ne dobiju nikakav bonus.

People here played it safe.

Ljudi su ovdje igrali na sigurno.

Turns out, the monkeys play it safe too.

Ispada da i majmuni također igraju na sigurno.

Qualitatively and quantitatively,

Kvalitativno i kvantitativno,

they choose exactly the same way as people,

izabrali su točno isti način kao i ljudi

when tested in the same thing.

kad ih se testiralo za istu stvar.

You might say, well, maybe the monkeys just don't like risk.

Mogli biste reći, pa možda majmuni jednostavno ne vole rizik.

Maybe we should see how they do with losses.

Možda bismo trebali vidjeti kako reagiraju s gubicima.

And so we ran a second version of this.

I onda smo napravili drugu verziju ovog.

Now, the monkeys meet two guys

Sada, majmuni upoznaju dva tipa

who aren't giving them bonuses;

koji im ne daju bonuse;

they're actually giving them less than they expect.

zapravo im daju manje no što očekuju.

So they look like they're starting out with a big amount.

Dakle, izgleda kao da počinju s velikom količinom.

These are three grapes; the monkey's really psyched for this.

Ovo su tri grozda.; majmun je zaista uzbuđen zbog ovoga.

But now they learn these guys are going to give them less than they expect.

Ali sada su naučili da će im ovi tipovi dati manje no što očekuju.

They guy on the left is a safe loss.

Tip s lijeve strane je siguran gubitak.

Every single time, he's going to take one of these away

Svaki put će jedan uzeti i

and give the monkeys just two.

dati majmunima samo dva.

the guy on the right is the risky loss.

Tip s desne strane je riskantan gubitak.

Sometimes he gives no loss, so the monkeys are really psyched,

Ponekad nema gubitka, pa su majmuni zaista uzbuđeni,

but sometimes he actually gives a big loss,

ali ponekad zaista napravi veliki gubitak,

taking away two to give the monkeys only one.

uzimajući dva i dajući majmunima samo jedan.

And so what do the monkeys do?

I što majmuni rade?

Again, same choice; they can play it safe

Opet, isti izbor; mogu igrati na sigurno

for always getting two grapes every single time,

dobivajući dva grozda svaki put

or they can take a risky bet and choose between one and three.

ili mogu riskirati i birati između jednog i tri.

The remarkable thing to us is that, when you give monkeys this choice,

Nevjerojatna činjenica za nas je da kada majmunima date ovaj izbor,

they do the same irrational thing that people do.

oni naprave istu iracionalnu stvar kao i ljudi.

They actually become more risky

Zapravo postanu skloniji riziku

depending on how the experimenters started.

ovisno o tome kako su eksperimentatori započeli.

This is crazy because it suggests that the monkeys too

To je suludo zato što insinuira da i majmuni također

are evaluating things in relative terms

procjenjuju stvari u relativnim uvjetima

and actually treating losses differently than they treat gains.

i zapravo tretiraju gubitke drugačije nego što tretiraju dobitke.

So what does all of this mean?

I što sve ovo znači?

Well, what we've shown is that, first of all,

Pa, kao što smo pokazali, prije svega,

we can actually give the monkeys a financial currency,

zaista bismo mogli dati majmunima financijsku valutu

and they do very similar things with it.

i oni bi s time učinili veoma slično.

They do some of the smart things we do,

Rade neke pametne stvari kao i mi,

some of the kind of not so nice things we do,

neke ne tako lijepe stvari kao i mi,

like steal it and so on.

poput krađe i tome slično.

But they also do some of the irrational things we do.

Ali oni također rade i neke iracionalne stvari kao i mi.

They systematically get things wrong

Oni sustavno rade stvari krivo i

and in the same ways that we do.

na isti način kao i mi.

This is the first take-home message of the Talk,

Ovo je prva poruka za ponijeti kući s govora,

which is that if you saw the beginning of this and you thought,

a to je da ako ste gledali početak i pomislili,

oh, I'm totally going to go home and hire a capuchin monkey financial adviser.

oh, totalno ću otići kući i zaposliti majmuna kapucina kao financijskog savjetnika.

They're way cuter than the one at ... you know --

Mnogo su slađi nego oni u... znate –

Don't do that; they're probably going to be just as dumb

Nemojte to učiniti; vjerojatno će biti jednako glup

as the human one you already have.

kao i čovjek kojeg već imate.

So, you know, a little bad -- Sorry, sorry, sorry.

Dakle, znate, malo loše – oprostite, oprostite, oprostite.

A little bad for monkey investors.

Malo loše za majmuna ulagača.

But of course, you know, the reason you're laughing is bad for humans too.

Ali naravno, znate, razlog zbog kojeg se smijete je također loš i za ljude.

Because we've answered the question we started out with.

Zato što smo odgovorili na pitanje s kojim smo počeli.

We wanted to know where these kinds of errors came from.

Željeli smo znati odakle su došle ovakve greške.

And we started with the hope that maybe we can

I krenuli smo s nadom da bi možda mogli

sort of tweak our financial institutions,

unaprijediti naše financijske ustanove,

tweak our technologies to make ourselves better.

unaprijediti našu tehnologiju kako bi nam bilo bolje.

But what we've learn is that these biases might be a deeper part of us than that.

Ali ono što smo naučili je to da bi ove predrasude mogle biti dublji dio nas od ovoga.

In fact, they might be due to the very nature

Zapravo, možda su oni nastali tbog same prirode

of our evolutionary history.

naše evolucijske povijesti.

You know, maybe it's not just humans

Znate, možda nisu samo ljudi

at the right side of this chain that's duncey.

na pravoj strani ovog lanca koji je glupav.

Maybe it's sort of duncey all the way back.

Možda je nekako glupo skroz otpočetka.

And this, if we believe the capuchin monkey results,

A ovo, ako vjerujemo rezultatima kapucina,

means that these duncey strategies

znači da bi ove glupave strategije

might be 35 million years old.

mogle biti stare 35 milijuna godina.

That's a long time for a strategy

To je puno vremena za strategiju

to potentially get changed around -- really, really old.

da se promijeni - stvarno, stvarno puno.

What do we know about other old strategies like this?

Što znamo o ostalim starim strategijama poput ove?

Well, one thing we know is that they tend to be really hard to overcome.

Pa, jedna stvar koju znamo je da znaju biti zaista teške za savladati.

You know, think of our evolutionary predilection

Znate, razmislite o našem evolucijskom predizboru

for eating sweet things, fatty things like cheesecake.

za jedenjem slatkih stvari, onih koje debljaju poput torte od sira.

You can't just shut that off.

Ne možete to samo tako isključiti.

You can't just look at the dessert cart as say, "No, no, no. That looks disgusting to me."

Ne možete samo tako pogledati u košaricu s desertima i reći „Ne, ne, ne. To mi odvratno izgleda.“

We're just built differently.

Jednostavno smo drugačije napravljeni.

We're going to perceive it as a good thing to go after.

Sagledati ćemo to kao dobru stvar.

My guess is that the same thing is going to be true

Pretpostavljam da će ista stvar biti istinita

when humans are perceiving

kada ljudi sagledavaju

different financial decisions.

financijske odluke.

When you're watching your stocks plummet into the red,

Kada gledate svoje dionice kako prelaze u crveno,

when you're watching your house price go down,

kada gledate kako vam se spušta cijena kuće,

you're not going to be able to see that

nećete moći biti u stanju to vidjeti

in anything but old evolutionary terms.

nikako drugačije nego u starim evolucijskim terminima.

This means that the biases

To znači da predrasude

that lead investors to do badly,

koje vode ulagače da učine nešto loše,

that lead to the foreclosure crisis

da vode krizu poništenja prava na oslobođenje od hipoteke,

are going to be really hard to overcome.

to će biti teško nadjačati.

So that's the bad news. The question is: is there any good news?

I to su loše vijesti. Pitanje je: ima li uopće dobrih vijesti?

I'm supposed to be up here telling you the good news.

Trebala bih biti ovdje i govoriti vam dobre vijesti.

Well, the good news, I think,

Pa, dobre vijesti, mislim,

is what I started with at the beginning of the Talk,

su one s kojima sam počela na početku govora,

which is that humans are not only smart;

a to je da ljudi nisu samo pametni;

we're really inspirationally smart

mi smo zaista nadahnuto pametni

to the rest of the animals in the biological kingdom.

s obzirom na ostale životinje u biološkom carstvu.

We're so good at overcoming our biological limitations --

Toliko smo dobri u prevladavanju naših bioloških granica –

you know, I flew over here in an airplane.

znate, doletjela sam ovdje zrakoplovom.

I didn't have to try to flap my wings.

Nisam trebala pokušati zamahnuti krilima.

I'm wearing contact lenses now so that I can see all of you.

Nosim kontaktne leće sada kako bih vas mogla vidjeti.

I don't have to rely on my own near-sightedness.

Ne moram se osloniti na svoju vlastitu kratkovidnost.

We actually have all of these cases

Zapravo imamo mnogo ovakvih primjera

where we overcome our biological limitations

gdje smo nadvladali naše biološke granice

through technology and other means, seemingly pretty easily.

kroz tehnologiju i ostalim načinima, naizgled relativno lako.

But we have to recognize that we have those limitations.

Ali moramo prepoznati da imamo te granice.

And here's the rub.

I tu je kvaka.

It was Camus who once said that, "Man is the only species

Camus je jednom rekao, „Čovjek je jedina vrsta

who refuses to be what he really is."

koja odbija biti ono što zaista je.“

But the irony is that

Ali ironija je da bi

it might only be in recognizing our limitations

jedino prepoznavanjem naših granica

that we can really actually overcome them.

mogli ih zaista nadvladati.

The hope is that you all will think about your limitations,

Nada je da ćete svi razmisliti o svojim granicama,

not necessarily as unovercomable,

ne nužno kao o nesavladivima,

but to recognize them, accept them

ali prepoznati ih, prihvatiti ih

and then use the world of design to actually figure them out.

i onda upotrijebiti svijet dizajna da ih zaista shvatimo.

That might be the only way that we will really be able

To bi mogao biti jedini način na koji ćemo zaista moći

to achieve our own human potential

postići vlastiti ljudski potencijal

and really be the noble species we hope to all be.

i zaista biti plemenita vrsta kakvom se svi nadamo da jesmo.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)