Laurie Santos: How monkeys mirror human irrationality

ローリー・サントス: 猿の経済界にも見られる不合理性

197,513 views

2010-07-29 ・ TED


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Laurie Santos: How monkeys mirror human irrationality

ローリー・サントス: 猿の経済界にも見られる不合理性

197,513 views ・ 2010-07-29

TED


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翻訳: Takako Sato 校正: Rinko Kawakami
00:17
I want to start my talk today with two observations
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ヒトに関する2つの事柄を
00:19
about the human species.
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まずお話したいと思います
00:21
The first observation is something that you might think is quite obvious,
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一つめの事柄は当たり前のように聞こえるかもしれませんが
00:24
and that's that our species, Homo sapiens,
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我々ホモサピエンスは
00:26
is actually really, really smart --
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実に頭の良い種です
00:28
like, ridiculously smart --
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その頭の良さは
00:30
like you're all doing things
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馬鹿げているほどで
00:32
that no other species on the planet does right now.
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他の種がしていないことを
00:35
And this is, of course,
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こなしています
00:37
not the first time you've probably recognized this.
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これは周知の事実ですが
00:39
Of course, in addition to being smart, we're also an extremely vain species.
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虚栄心の強い種でもあるため
00:42
So we like pointing out the fact that we're smart.
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自分たちの賢さを示すのが好きなのです
00:45
You know, so I could turn to pretty much any sage
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シェークスピアから
00:47
from Shakespeare to Stephen Colbert
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スティーブン・コルベアまで
00:49
to point out things like the fact that
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賢者を見れば
00:51
we're noble in reason and infinite in faculties
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人間とは理性と才能に恵まれ
00:53
and just kind of awesome-er than anything else on the planet
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どんな生き物よりも
00:55
when it comes to all things cerebral.
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知的であることがわかります
00:58
But of course, there's a second observation about the human species
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でも私が強調したいのは
01:00
that I want to focus on a little bit more,
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二つめの事柄です
01:02
and that's the fact that
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人間ほど賢い生き物はいないのに
01:04
even though we're actually really smart, sometimes uniquely smart,
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決断力に関しては
01:07
we can also be incredibly, incredibly dumb
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驚くほど愚かな決断を
01:10
when it comes to some aspects of our decision making.
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してしまうことがある点です
01:13
Now I'm seeing lots of smirks out there.
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ニヤニヤしている方
01:15
Don't worry, I'm not going to call anyone in particular out
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具体的な名前は出しませんので
01:17
on any aspects of your own mistakes.
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ご心配なく
01:19
But of course, just in the last two years
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でも過去2年間に
01:21
we see these unprecedented examples of human ineptitude.
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先例のない愚かな出来事がありました
01:24
And we've watched as the tools we uniquely make
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資源採取のために人間がつくった道具が
01:27
to pull the resources out of our environment
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悲惨な結果を招いたのも
01:29
kind of just blow up in our face.
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見てきました
01:31
We've watched the financial markets that we uniquely create --
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我々がつくった金融市場は
01:33
these markets that were supposed to be foolproof --
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確実であったはずなのに
01:36
we've watched them kind of collapse before our eyes.
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崩壊してしまいました
01:38
But both of these two embarrassing examples, I think,
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でも この二つの例は
01:40
don't highlight what I think is most embarrassing
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もっとも情けない間違いを
01:43
about the mistakes that humans make,
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浮き彫りにはしていません
01:45
which is that we'd like to think that the mistakes we make
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間違いを犯す原因は 少しばかりの困った問題があったり
01:48
are really just the result of a couple bad apples
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もの笑いのタネになる決断を
01:50
or a couple really sort of FAIL Blog-worthy decisions.
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してしまうからだと解釈したいところですが
01:53
But it turns out, what social scientists are actually learning
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社会科学者の研究でわかったのは
01:56
is that most of us, when put in certain contexts,
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ほとんどの人は ある状況に置かれると
01:59
will actually make very specific mistakes.
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ある種の決まった間違いをするのです
02:02
The errors we make are actually predictable.
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間違いに意外性はなく
02:04
We make them again and again.
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人は間違いを繰り返します
02:06
And they're actually immune to lots of evidence.
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警告があっても動じません
02:08
When we get negative feedback,
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否定的な意見を言われると
02:10
we still, the next time we're face with a certain context,
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次に同じ状況に直面するときに
02:13
tend to make the same errors.
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同じ間違いをする傾向があります
02:15
And so this has been a real puzzle to me
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人間の本質を研究している私には
02:17
as a sort of scholar of human nature.
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この点が謎なのです
02:19
What I'm most curious about is,
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一番興味があるのは
02:21
how is a species that's as smart as we are
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これだけ賢い種である人間が
02:24
capable of such bad
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このような間違いを
02:26
and such consistent errors all the time?
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常にし続けるのか ということです
02:28
You know, we're the smartest thing out there, why can't we figure this out?
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賢いはずの人間が なぜ解決策を見つけられないのでしょう?
02:31
In some sense, where do our mistakes really come from?
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何が引き金になるのだろうと思いを巡らしていたら
02:34
And having thought about this a little bit, I see a couple different possibilities.
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原因になり得る事柄が いくつか浮かびました
02:37
One possibility is, in some sense, it's not really our fault.
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一つめは 我々の責任ではないという見解です
02:40
Because we're a smart species,
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人間は賢いので
02:42
we can actually create all kinds of environments
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非常に複雑な環境を
02:44
that are super, super complicated,
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つくり出すことができます
02:46
sometimes too complicated for us to even actually understand,
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時に複雑すぎて自ら作ったものを
02:49
even though we've actually created them.
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理解できないことすらあります
02:51
We create financial markets that are super complex.
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入り組んだ金融市場をつくり
02:53
We create mortgage terms that we can't actually deal with.
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返済しきれない住宅ローンを組んだりします
02:56
And of course, if we are put in environments where we can't deal with it,
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もちろん 対応できない状況に置かれれば
02:59
in some sense makes sense that we actually
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ある意味 我々が
03:01
might mess certain things up.
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物事を悪化させるのもわかります
03:03
If this was the case, we'd have a really easy solution
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もしそうならば
03:05
to the problem of human error.
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解決策は至って簡単
03:07
We'd actually just say, okay, let's figure out
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扱いきれない技術や
03:09
the kinds of technologies we can't deal with,
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悪影響を及ぼす環境を
03:11
the kinds of environments that are bad --
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見つけたら取り払い
03:13
get rid of those, design things better,
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より良いものをデザインすれば
03:15
and we should be the noble species
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人間は期待通りに
03:17
that we expect ourselves to be.
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立派な種になるはずです
03:19
But there's another possibility that I find a little bit more worrying,
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でも混乱状態にあるのは環境ではなく
03:22
which is, maybe it's not our environments that are messed up.
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いい加減につくられた人間なのでは?
03:25
Maybe it's actually us that's designed badly.
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社会科学者が人間の間違いを
03:28
This is a hint that I've gotten
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見つけ出す方法を見ていて
03:30
from watching the ways that social scientists have learned about human errors.
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私はそう思いました
03:33
And what we see is that people tend to keep making errors
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人間は同じ間違いを
03:36
exactly the same way, over and over again.
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何度も繰り返す傾向があるため
03:39
It feels like we might almost just be built
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人間のつくりを
03:41
to make errors in certain ways.
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疑ってしまうほどです
03:43
This is a possibility that I worry a little bit more about,
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もし問題が人間自体にあるのなら
03:46
because, if it's us that's messed up,
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どう対処すればいいのか
03:48
it's not actually clear how we go about dealing with it.
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わからないことが問題です
03:50
We might just have to accept the fact that we're error prone
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間違いをしがちだという事実を受け入れて
03:53
and try to design things around it.
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問題を避けられるデザインが必要かもしれません
03:55
So this is the question my students and I wanted to get at.
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私が学生と共に究明したかったのは
03:58
How can we tell the difference between possibility one and possibility two?
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可能性1と可能性2の違いを見出すことです
04:01
What we need is a population
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必要としていたのは
04:03
that's basically smart, can make lots of decisions,
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賢くて 決断力があるけれど
04:05
but doesn't have access to any of the systems we have,
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人間を狂わせる材料に
04:07
any of the things that might mess us up --
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手の届かない生き物
04:09
no human technology, human culture,
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テクノロジーや文化や言葉を
04:11
maybe even not human language.
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有しない生き物です
04:13
And so this is why we turned to these guys here.
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こうして決定した
04:15
These are one of the guys I work with. This is a brown capuchin monkey.
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研究の協力者はオマキザルです
04:18
These guys are New World primates,
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新世界ザルとも呼ばれるのは
04:20
which means they broke off from the human branch
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約3500万年前に
04:22
about 35 million years ago.
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ヒトから分岐したからです
04:24
This means that your great, great, great great, great, great --
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「ひい」を500万回つけた
04:26
with about five million "greats" in there --
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我々のひいおばあちゃんと
04:28
grandmother was probably the same great, great, great, great
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彼らのひいおばあちゃんが
04:30
grandmother with five million "greats" in there
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同一人物であったと
04:32
as Holly up here.
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言えるわけです
04:34
You know, so you can take comfort in the fact that this guy up here is a really really distant,
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この猿と人間は非常に離れていながらも
04:37
but albeit evolutionary, relative.
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親戚にあたります
04:39
The good news about Holly though is that
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ホリーは人間のような
04:41
she doesn't actually have the same kinds of technologies we do.
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技術を持ち合わせていません
04:44
You know, she's a smart, very cut creature, a primate as well,
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賢くて可愛い霊長類ですが
04:47
but she lacks all the stuff we think might be messing us up.
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人間を狂わせる要素を持ち合わせていないので
04:49
So she's the perfect test case.
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この実験には完璧です
04:51
What if we put Holly into the same context as humans?
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ホリーを人間と同じ境遇に置いたら
04:54
Does she make the same mistakes as us?
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人間と同じ間違いをしたり
04:56
Does she not learn from them? And so on.
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間違いから学ぶのか―
04:58
And so this is the kind of thing we decided to do.
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実験してみることにしました
05:00
My students and I got very excited about this a few years ago.
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数年前 このアイデアを思いつき
05:02
We said, all right, let's, you know, throw so problems at Holly,
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ホリーは この問題を
05:04
see if she messes these things up.
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どう対処するか見てみようということになりました
05:06
First problem is just, well, where should we start?
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人間の間違いだけでも
05:09
Because, you know, it's great for us, but bad for humans.
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あまりにも題材が多くて
05:11
We make a lot of mistakes in a lot of different contexts.
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どこから着手したらいいのか
05:13
You know, where are we actually going to start with this?
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迷いました
05:15
And because we started this work around the time of the financial collapse,
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この研究を始めたとき 金融崩壊が起き
05:18
around the time when foreclosures were hitting the news,
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差し押さえが相次いだので
05:20
we said, hhmm, maybe we should
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私たちは金融の領域が
05:22
actually start in the financial domain.
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研究題材にいいのではと思ったのです
05:24
Maybe we should look at monkey's economic decisions
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猿の経済的決断の仕方を観察して
05:27
and try to see if they do the same kinds of dumb things that we do.
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人間同様 愚かな間違いをするか見てみるのです
05:30
Of course, that's when we hit a sort second problem --
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このとき二つめの問題にぶちあたりました
05:32
a little bit more methodological --
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少々 方法論的な
05:34
which is that, maybe you guys don't know,
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問題なのですが
05:36
but monkeys don't actually use money. I know, you haven't met them.
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猿はお金を使いません
05:39
But this is why, you know, they're not in the queue behind you
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スーパーや銀行で
05:41
at the grocery store or the ATM -- you know, they don't do this stuff.
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列に並ぶ猿などいないので
05:44
So now we faced, you know, a little bit of a problem here.
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お金に対する質問を
05:47
How are we actually going to ask monkeys about money
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どうやって猿にしたらいいのか
05:49
if they don't actually use it?
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問題になりましたが
05:51
So we said, well, maybe we should just, actually just suck it up
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ともかく 猿に
05:53
and teach monkeys how to use money.
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お金の使い方を
05:55
So that's just what we did.
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教えてみることにしました
05:57
What you're looking at over here is actually the first unit that I know of
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これはお金の代わりに使った
06:00
of non-human currency.
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造り物の通貨です
06:02
We weren't very creative at the time we started these studies,
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研究を始めた当初は
06:04
so we just called it a token.
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単にトークンと呼んでいたもので
06:06
But this is the unit of currency that we've taught our monkeys at Yale
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エール大学で この通貨を使って
06:09
to actually use with humans,
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人間から食べ物を得るために
06:11
to actually buy different pieces of food.
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猿を調教しました
06:14
It doesn't look like much -- in fact, it isn't like much.
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トークンは大したことない
06:16
Like most of our money, it's just a piece of metal.
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ただの金属片です
06:18
As those of you who've taken currencies home from your trip know,
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海外旅行から持ち帰り
06:21
once you get home, it's actually pretty useless.
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無用になったお金と一緒で
06:23
It was useless to the monkeys at first
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最初 猿はその利用価値が
06:25
before they realized what they could do with it.
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わからなかったので
06:27
When we first gave it to them in their enclosures,
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柵に入れられたトークンを
06:29
they actually kind of picked them up, looked at them.
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拾って眺めたものの
06:31
They were these kind of weird things.
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特に意味はなしませんでした
06:33
But very quickly, the monkeys realized
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でも 猿はすぐに
06:35
that they could actually hand these tokens over
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トークンを渡せば
06:37
to different humans in the lab for some food.
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食べ物がもらえることに気づきました
06:40
And so you see one of our monkeys, Mayday, up here doing this.
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猿のメーデーが実践しています
06:42
This is A and B are kind of the points where she's sort of a little bit
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左の二つの写真は 好奇心を
06:45
curious about these things -- doesn't know.
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示しているところです
06:47
There's this waiting hand from a human experimenter,
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手を差し出す実験者がいて
06:49
and Mayday quickly figures out, apparently the human wants this.
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メーデーはこの人が欲しがっていることを察します
06:52
Hands it over, and then gets some food.
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渡すと食べ物がもらえます
06:54
It turns out not just Mayday, all of our monkeys get good
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どの猿も 人間にトークンを差し出し
06:56
at trading tokens with human salesman.
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食べ物が得られます
06:58
So here's just a quick video of what this looks like.
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ビデオを用意しました
07:00
Here's Mayday. She's going to be trading a token for some food
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メーデーがトークンを差し出し
07:03
and waiting happily and getting her food.
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嬉しそうに待ち 食べ物をもらいます
07:06
Here's Felix, I think. He's our alpha male; he's a kind of big guy.
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ボス的存在のフィリックスも
07:08
But he too waits patiently, gets his food and goes on.
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辛抱強く待って食べ物をもらいます
07:11
So the monkeys get really good at this.
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あまり訓練をしなくても
07:13
They're surprisingly good at this with very little training.
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どの猿も やり方を
07:16
We just allowed them to pick this up on their own.
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覚えてしまいました
07:18
The question is: is this anything like human money?
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これは人間が扱うお金と同じなのか
07:20
Is this a market at all,
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それとも 猿が
07:22
or did we just do a weird psychologist's trick
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賢く見えるだけで
07:24
by getting monkeys to do something,
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実はそうではないのか
07:26
looking smart, but not really being smart.
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疑問に思いました
07:28
And so we said, well, what would the monkeys spontaneously do
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猿がお金に匹敵するものを本当に使っていたら
07:31
if this was really their currency, if they were really using it like money?
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猿は自発的に何をするのか 気になりました
07:34
Well, you might actually imagine them
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人間が金銭の授受をするように
07:36
to do all the kinds of smart things
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猿も賢いことをすると
07:38
that humans do when they start exchanging money with each other.
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想像する人がいるかもしれません
07:41
You might have them start paying attention to price,
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トークンがあれば どれだけのものを
07:44
paying attention to how much they buy --
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買えるのかと
07:46
sort of keeping track of their monkey token, as it were.
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猿が関心をもつのかどうか
07:49
Do the monkeys do anything like this?
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突き止めるため
07:51
And so our monkey marketplace was born.
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猿の市場をつくり出しました
07:54
The way this works is that
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対象となった猿は
07:56
our monkeys normally live in a kind of big zoo social enclosure.
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動物園のような社会的囲いの中で通常暮らしています
07:59
When they get a hankering for some treats,
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おやつを欲しがるときに
08:01
we actually allowed them a way out
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市場へつながる小さな囲いに
08:03
into a little smaller enclosure where they could enter the market.
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誘い込みます
08:05
Upon entering the market --
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そこは人間の市場より
08:07
it was actually a much more fun market for the monkeys than most human markets
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楽しさがある場所にしました
08:09
because, as the monkeys entered the door of the market,
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猿がドアをくぐると トークンがたくさん入った
08:12
a human would give them a big wallet full of tokens
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財布が渡されます
08:14
so they could actually trade the tokens
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トークンを使って
08:16
with one of these two guys here --
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物を得られる仕組みです
08:18
two different possible human salesmen
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2人のセールスマンが
08:20
that they could actually buy stuff from.
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商品を用意しています
08:22
The salesmen were students from my lab.
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学生にセールスマンになってもらい
08:24
They dressed differently; they were different people.
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それぞれ違う格好をしました
08:26
And over time, they did basically the same thing
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何度も同じことを繰り返し
08:29
so the monkeys could learn, you know,
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猿に仕組みを教えました
08:31
who sold what at what price -- you know, who was reliable, who wasn't, and so on.
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商品や値段や誰が信頼できるかなどです
08:34
And you can see that each of the experimenters
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実験者が持っている
08:36
is actually holding up a little, yellow food dish.
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黄色い小皿に乗っている量が
08:39
and that's what the monkey can for a single token.
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トークン1枚で買えるものです
08:41
So everything costs one token,
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どれもトークン1枚分ですが
08:43
but as you can see, sometimes tokens buy more than others,
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時々ぶどうが多く得られるように
08:45
sometimes more grapes than others.
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設定しました
08:47
So I'll show you a quick video of what this marketplace actually looks like.
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実際のビデオをご覧ください
08:50
Here's a monkey-eye-view. Monkeys are shorter, so it's a little short.
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猿の視点から撮影したものです
08:53
But here's Honey.
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これは猿のハニー
08:55
She's waiting for the market to open a little impatiently.
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市場の開店を待っています
08:57
All of a sudden the market opens. Here's her choice: one grapes or two grapes.
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一人は1粒 もう一人は2粒差し出しています
09:00
You can see Honey, very good market economist,
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見極め上手なハニーは
09:02
goes with the guy who gives more.
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ぶどう2粒をくれる人を選びました
09:05
She could teach our financial advisers a few things or two.
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ハニーから学べることはありそうです
09:07
So not just Honey,
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ハニーに限らず
09:09
most of the monkeys went with guys who had more.
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大半の猿は より多くてより美味しいものを
09:12
Most of the monkeys went with guys who had better food.
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持っている人を選びました
09:14
When we introduced sales, we saw the monkeys paid attention to that.
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猿は商品に注目をして
09:17
They really cared about their monkey token dollar.
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トークンに関心をよせました
09:20
The more surprising thing was that when we collaborated with economists
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驚いたのは 経済学者と共に
09:23
to actually look at the monkeys' data using economic tools,
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経済的指針で猿のデータを見てみると
09:26
they basically matched, not just qualitatively,
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人間がしていることと同じことが
09:29
but quantitatively with what we saw
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質的にも量的にも
09:31
humans doing in a real market.
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一致したことです
09:33
So much so that, if you saw the monkeys' numbers,
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数値を見ただけでは
09:35
you couldn't tell whether they came from a monkey or a human in the same market.
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猿なのか人間なのか区別がつかないほどです
09:38
And what we'd really thought we'd done
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少なくとも
09:40
is like we'd actually introduced something
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猿と私たちには
09:42
that, at least for the monkeys and us,
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本物のお金のように使えるものを
09:44
works like a real financial currency.
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導入できたと感じました
09:46
Question is: do the monkeys start messing up in the same ways we do?
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問題は 猿も人間同様に間違いをするのかということです
09:49
Well, we already saw anecdotally a couple of signs that they might.
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その可能性はいくつかありました
09:52
One thing we never saw in the monkey marketplace
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猿の経済界で見かけなかったのは
09:54
was any evidence of saving --
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人間のように
09:56
you know, just like our own species.
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貯金をしないことです
09:58
The monkeys entered the market, spent their entire budget
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コインを使い果たし
10:00
and then went back to everyone else.
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帰って行きました
10:02
The other thing we also spontaneously saw,
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また同時に見かけたのは
10:04
embarrassingly enough,
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恥ずかしいことに
10:06
is spontaneous evidence of larceny.
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盗みを働くのです
10:08
The monkeys would rip-off the tokens at every available opportunity --
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機会さえあれば人間からトークンを
10:11
from each other, often from us --
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だまし取ろうとしました
10:13
you know, things we didn't necessarily think we were introducing,
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教えたつもりはないのに
10:15
but things we spontaneously saw.
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盗みを身につけていました
10:17
So we said, this looks bad.
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そこで 人間同様に
10:19
Can we actually see if the monkeys
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猿も愚かなことをするのか
10:21
are doing exactly the same dumb things as humans do?
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確かめることにしたのです
10:24
One possibility is just kind of let
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猿の経済界を放っておけば
10:26
the monkey financial system play out,
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数年後には人間に
10:28
you know, see if they start calling us for bailouts in a few years.
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経済援助を求めてくるかもしれませんが
10:30
We were a little impatient so we wanted
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そんなに待っていられないので
10:32
to sort of speed things up a bit.
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時間を短縮するために
10:34
So we said, let's actually give the monkeys
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経済的な難局に
10:36
the same kinds of problems
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直面したとき
10:38
that humans tend to get wrong
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人間が間違いやすい問題を
10:40
in certain kinds of economic challenges,
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猿にも
10:42
or certain kinds of economic experiments.
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与えてみることにしました
10:44
And so, since the best way to see how people go wrong
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人がいかに間違いを犯すのかを確かめるには
10:47
is to actually do it yourself,
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自分でやってみるのが一番ですから
10:49
I'm going to give you guys a quick experiment
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直感を見るために
10:51
to sort of watch your own financial intuitions in action.
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実験をしてみましょう
10:53
So imagine that right now
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皆さんに
10:55
I handed each and every one of you
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1000ドルずつ
10:57
a thousand U.S. dollars -- so 10 crisp hundred dollar bills.
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渡したとします
11:00
Take these, put it in your wallet
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そのお金は
11:02
and spend a second thinking about what you're going to do with it.
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もう皆さんのものですから
11:04
Because it's yours now; you can buy whatever you want.
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募金でも何でも
11:06
Donate it, take it, and so on.
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好きなように使えます
11:08
Sounds great, but you get one more choice to earn a little bit more money.
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もうちょっと儲かる選択肢があったとします
11:11
And here's your choice: you can either be risky,
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一つめの選択肢はリスクを伴います
11:14
in which case I'm going to flip one of these monkey tokens.
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私がコインを投げて表が出たら
11:16
If it comes up heads, you're going to get a thousand dollars more.
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もう1000ドルプラス
11:18
If it comes up tails, you get nothing.
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裏が出たら何もなし
11:20
So it's a chance to get more, but it's pretty risky.
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増える確率はありますが 高リスクです
11:23
Your other option is a bit safe. Your just going to get some money for sure.
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もう一つの選択肢は 安全志向
11:26
I'm just going to give you 500 bucks.
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金額は500ドルですが
11:28
You can stick it in your wallet and use it immediately.
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確実にもらえるとしたら
11:31
So see what your intuition is here.
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どちらを選びますか
11:33
Most people actually go with the play-it-safe option.
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大半の人は安全な方を選びます
11:36
Most people say, why should I be risky when I can get 1,500 dollars for sure?
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1500ドルが確実に手に入るなら 賭ける必要はないと言うのです
11:39
This seems like a good bet. I'm going to go with that.
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慎重な選択と言えますね
11:41
You might say, eh, that's not really irrational.
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人はリスクを負うのが嫌なため
11:43
People are a little risk-averse. So what?
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合理的だと思うかもしれませんが
11:45
Well, the "so what?" comes when start thinking
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同じ問題の
11:47
about the same problem
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状況を変えた場合
11:49
set up just a little bit differently.
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どうなるか見てみましょう
11:51
So now imagine that I give each and every one of you
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皆さんに2000ドルを
11:53
2,000 dollars -- 20 crisp hundred dollar bills.
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渡したと想像してください
11:56
Now you can buy double to stuff you were going to get before.
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先ほどの2倍も
11:58
Think about how you'd feel sticking it in your wallet.
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好きなものが買えます
12:00
And now imagine that I have you make another choice
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ここで選択です
12:02
But this time, it's a little bit worse.
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先ほどとは違って
12:04
Now, you're going to be deciding how you're going to lose money,
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どのようにお金を失うかを考えてもらいます
12:07
but you're going to get the same choice.
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選択肢は同じ
12:09
You can either take a risky loss --
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リスクを伴う選択肢は
12:11
so I'll flip a coin. If it comes up heads, you're going to actually lose a lot.
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表が出たら1000ドル失いますが
12:14
If it comes up tails, you lose nothing, you're fine, get to keep the whole thing --
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裏が出たら何も失わずに済みます
12:17
or you could play it safe, which means you have to reach back into your wallet
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リスクをかけたくなければ
12:20
and give me five of those $100 bills, for certain.
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私に500ドルを渡すだけ
12:23
And I'm seeing a lot of furrowed brows out there.
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眉にしわを寄せる人が見えますね
12:26
So maybe you're having the same intuitions
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きっと皆さんも
12:28
as the subjects that were actually tested in this,
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この実験の対象者と同様に
12:30
which is when presented with these options,
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この選択肢を与えられると
12:32
people don't choose to play it safe.
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安全な方は選ばないのかもしれません
12:34
They actually tend to go a little risky.
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人はリスクをかける傾向にあるのです
12:36
The reason this is irrational is that we've given people in both situations
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これが合理的でないのは どちらの状況も
12:39
the same choice.
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選択肢が同じだったからです
12:41
It's a 50/50 shot of a thousand or 2,000,
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1000ドルか2000ドルのどちらかになる選択肢と
12:44
or just 1,500 dollars with certainty.
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1500ドルと決まった選択肢
12:46
But people's intuitions about how much risk to take
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でも 伴うリスクに関わる直感は
12:49
varies depending on where they started with.
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立たされた状況によって異なります
12:51
So what's going on?
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どういうことでしょうか
12:53
Well, it turns out that this seems to be the result
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これは心理的な面から生まれる
12:55
of at least two biases that we have at the psychological level.
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少なくとも二つの先入観が関係しています
12:58
One is that we have a really hard time thinking in absolute terms.
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まず 絶対数で考える難しさです
13:01
You really have to do work to figure out,
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1000ドルか2000ドルの選択肢と
13:03
well, one option's a thousand, 2,000;
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1500ドルの選択肢を
13:05
one is 1,500.
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天秤にかけなくてはいけません
13:07
Instead, we find it very easy to think in very relative terms
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でも選択肢が変わり
13:10
as options change from one time to another.
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相対的に考えるのは簡単です
13:13
So we think of things as, "Oh, I'm going to get more," or "Oh, I'm going to get less."
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もっともらえる とか 失う額は少ない という具合です
13:16
This is all well and good, except that
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これはいいのですが
13:18
changes in different directions
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捉え方を変えることで
13:20
actually effect whether or not we think
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選択肢の妥当性の
13:22
options are good or not.
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見極めに影響します
13:24
And this leads to the second bias,
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これは二つめの傾向につながり
13:26
which economists have called loss aversion.
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経済学者は損失回避と呼んでいます
13:28
The idea is that we really hate it when things go into the red.
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赤字になることを嫌うという意味です
13:31
We really hate it when we have to lose out on some money.
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人は損失を嫌うため
13:33
And this means that sometimes we'll actually
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損失を避けようと
13:35
switch our preferences to avoid this.
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することがあります
13:37
What you saw in that last scenario is that
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最後のシナリオで見たのは
13:39
subjects get risky
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対象者はリスクをかけます
13:41
because they want the small shot that there won't be any loss.
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何も失いたくないからです
13:44
That means when we're in a risk mindset --
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これは我々が
13:46
excuse me, when we're in a loss mindset,
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損失の覚悟があるとき
13:48
we actually become more risky,
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非常に厄介になり得るのですが
13:50
which can actually be really worrying.
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リスクを負うことが多くなります
13:52
These kinds of things play out in lots of bad ways in humans.
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始末の悪い様々な状況を作り出すものです
13:55
They're why stock investors hold onto losing stocks longer --
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株投資家が株を売らないがために損失を出すのは
13:58
because they're evaluating them in relative terms.
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相対的に考えているからです
14:00
They're why people in the housing market refused to sell their house --
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住宅市場の人たちが不動産を売り渋ったのは
14:02
because they don't want to sell at a loss.
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損を承知で売りたくなかったからです
14:04
The question we were interested in
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猿も同じ傾向を示すのか
14:06
is whether the monkeys show the same biases.
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私たちは興味がありました
14:08
If we set up those same scenarios in our little monkey market,
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猿の市場でも同じ状況をつくりだしたら
14:11
would they do the same thing as people?
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人間と同じことをするでしょうか
14:13
And so this is what we did, we gave the monkeys choices
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そこで私たちは猿に選択肢を与え
14:15
between guys who were safe -- they did the same thing every time --
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常に同じことをする安全な人と
14:18
or guys who were risky --
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50%の確率で違う事をする
14:20
they did things differently half the time.
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リスク型の人を用意しました
14:22
And then we gave them options that were bonuses --
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そして初めのシナリオのように
14:24
like you guys did in the first scenario --
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ボーナスがもらえるようにしました
14:26
so they actually have a chance more,
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儲かるチャンスでもあり
14:28
or pieces where they were experiencing losses --
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失う可能性も出てきます
14:31
they actually thought they were going to get more than they really got.
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実際よりも儲けたと思うのです
14:33
And so this is what this looks like.
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このような感じです
14:35
We introduced the monkeys to two new monkey salesmen.
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新しい販売員を紹介します
14:37
The guy on the left and right both start with one piece of grape,
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どちらも持っているのは ぶどう1粒
14:39
so it looks pretty good.
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見た目はいいですが
14:41
But they're going to give the monkeys bonuses.
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ボーナスが出てきます
14:43
The guy on the left is a safe bonus.
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左の人はおまけをくれるので
14:45
All the time, he adds one, to give the monkeys two.
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合計2粒のぶどうがもらえます
14:48
The guy on the right is actually a risky bonus.
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右の人はリスク型で
14:50
Sometimes the monkeys get no bonus -- so this is a bonus of zero.
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何もくれない時がありますが
14:53
Sometimes the monkeys get two extra.
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時々2粒もらえるため
14:56
For a big bonus, now they get three.
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合計3粒のときがあります
14:58
But this is the same choice you guys just faced.
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これは皆さんが直面したものと同じ
15:00
Do the monkeys actually want to play it safe
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猿はリスクを回避して
15:03
and then go with the guy who's going to do the same thing on every trial,
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毎回おまけをくれる人を選ぶのか
15:05
or do they want to be risky
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それとも
15:07
and try to get a risky, but big, bonus,
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何ももらえない時を覚悟して
15:09
but risk the possibility of getting no bonus.
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大きなボーナスを得ようとするでしょうか
15:11
People here played it safe.
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人間は安全な方を選びました
15:13
Turns out, the monkeys play it safe too.
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結果は猿も同じでした
15:15
Qualitatively and quantitatively,
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質的にも量的にも
15:17
they choose exactly the same way as people,
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猿は人間と同じ―
15:19
when tested in the same thing.
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判断を下しました
15:21
You might say, well, maybe the monkeys just don't like risk.
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猿の損失との向き合い方を
15:23
Maybe we should see how they do with losses.
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明らかにするために
15:25
And so we ran a second version of this.
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別の実験を行いました
15:27
Now, the monkeys meet two guys
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ここでは 何もくれない
15:29
who aren't giving them bonuses;
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2人の人に会います
15:31
they're actually giving them less than they expect.
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ぶどうの数が多いので
15:33
So they look like they're starting out with a big amount.
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たくさんもらえる印象を与えます
15:35
These are three grapes; the monkey's really psyched for this.
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3粒のぶどうに猿は大喜び
15:37
But now they learn these guys are going to give them less than they expect.
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でも3粒はもらえないことがわかります
15:40
They guy on the left is a safe loss.
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左の人は安全型で
15:42
Every single time, he's going to take one of these away
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毎度 ぶどう1粒を取り上げて
15:45
and give the monkeys just two.
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猿には2粒だけ渡します
15:47
the guy on the right is the risky loss.
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右の人はリスク型で
15:49
Sometimes he gives no loss, so the monkeys are really psyched,
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3粒くれることもあるため 猿は喜びますが
15:52
but sometimes he actually gives a big loss,
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時々大きな損をする羽目になり
15:54
taking away two to give the monkeys only one.
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1粒しかくれません
15:56
And so what do the monkeys do?
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猿はどうしたでしょうか
15:58
Again, same choice; they can play it safe
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安全型は
16:00
for always getting two grapes every single time,
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毎度2粒もらえます
16:03
or they can take a risky bet and choose between one and three.
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リスク型は3粒の時と1粒の時が混在します
16:06
The remarkable thing to us is that, when you give monkeys this choice,
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私たちが驚いたのは 猿にこの選択をさせたとき
16:09
they do the same irrational thing that people do.
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人間と同様に非合理的な選択をすることです
16:11
They actually become more risky
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実験を どう始めるかによって
16:13
depending on how the experimenters started.
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猿はリスク型を選ぶのです
16:16
This is crazy because it suggests that the monkeys too
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猿も物事を相対的に
16:18
are evaluating things in relative terms
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見ていることを示唆しており
16:20
and actually treating losses differently than they treat gains.
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損失と儲けは同じ方法では扱っていません
16:23
So what does all of this mean?
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これはどういうことでしょうか
16:25
Well, what we've shown is that, first of all,
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第一に 猿に対して
16:27
we can actually give the monkeys a financial currency,
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金融価値のあるお金を与えると
16:29
and they do very similar things with it.
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人間と似たことをします
16:31
They do some of the smart things we do,
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賢い行動もしますが
16:33
some of the kind of not so nice things we do,
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盗みなどの
16:35
like steal it and so on.
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好ましくないことをしたり
16:37
But they also do some of the irrational things we do.
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非合理的なこともするのです
16:39
They systematically get things wrong
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猿は人間と同様に
16:41
and in the same ways that we do.
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体系的な失敗をします
16:43
This is the first take-home message of the Talk,
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これがまず第一に示したい点です
16:45
which is that if you saw the beginning of this and you thought,
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猿の金融アドバイザーを雇おうと
16:47
oh, I'm totally going to go home and hire a capuchin monkey financial adviser.
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考えた方がいると思いますが
16:49
They're way cuter than the one at ... you know --
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猿はかわいいけれど
16:51
Don't do that; they're probably going to be just as dumb
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人間の金融アドバイザー同様に
16:53
as the human one you already have.
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愚かですから お勧めしません
16:56
So, you know, a little bad -- Sorry, sorry, sorry.
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ごめんなさい
16:58
A little bad for monkey investors.
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言い方が悪かったわ
17:00
But of course, you know, the reason you're laughing is bad for humans too.
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皆さんが笑うのも 人間の弱点を知っているからですよね
17:03
Because we've answered the question we started out with.
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初めの質問で答えたからわかりますね
17:06
We wanted to know where these kinds of errors came from.
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このような間違いは どこから始まるのでしょうか
17:08
And we started with the hope that maybe we can
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私たちの願いは
17:10
sort of tweak our financial institutions,
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金融制度や技術に
17:12
tweak our technologies to make ourselves better.
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ひねりを入れて向上させることでした
17:15
But what we've learn is that these biases might be a deeper part of us than that.
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でもわかったのは このような傾向はもっと深い部分から発生していることです
17:18
In fact, they might be due to the very nature
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人間が進化してきた中に
17:20
of our evolutionary history.
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理由が見つけられる可能性もあります
17:22
You know, maybe it's not just humans
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愚かな面が見られるのは
17:24
at the right side of this chain that's duncey.
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人間だけなのではなく
17:26
Maybe it's sort of duncey all the way back.
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大昔から猿にも見られたのかもしれません
17:28
And this, if we believe the capuchin monkey results,
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猿の実験結果を信用するとしたら
17:31
means that these duncey strategies
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この愚かな策略は
17:33
might be 35 million years old.
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3500万年も続いているのかもしれません
17:35
That's a long time for a strategy
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この古くからある策略は
17:37
to potentially get changed around -- really, really old.
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ずっと変わらないままなのです
17:40
What do we know about other old strategies like this?
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他にはどのようなものがあるでしょうか
17:42
Well, one thing we know is that they tend to be really hard to overcome.
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愚かな策略を克服するのは大変なのです
17:45
You know, think of our evolutionary predilection
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人間は進化するうちに
17:47
for eating sweet things, fatty things like cheesecake.
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甘いものや脂肪分の多いものを好むようになりました
17:50
You can't just shut that off.
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美味しさを知っているので
17:52
You can't just look at the dessert cart as say, "No, no, no. That looks disgusting to me."
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デザートを見たときに まずそうとは思わず
17:55
We're just built differently.
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体にはプラスだと
17:57
We're going to perceive it as a good thing to go after.
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思うようになっています
17:59
My guess is that the same thing is going to be true
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経済的な決断に関しても
18:01
when humans are perceiving
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同じことが起こるというのが
18:03
different financial decisions.
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私の推測です
18:05
When you're watching your stocks plummet into the red,
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株が下落したり
18:07
when you're watching your house price go down,
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不動産価値が下がるとき
18:09
you're not going to be able to see that
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進化的な意味で
18:11
in anything but old evolutionary terms.
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解釈してしまいます
18:13
This means that the biases
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投資家を失敗に招いたり
18:15
that lead investors to do badly,
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差し押さえをつくり出す先入観を
18:17
that lead to the foreclosure crisis
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乗り越えるのは
18:19
are going to be really hard to overcome.
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非常に難しいことを指しています
18:21
So that's the bad news. The question is: is there any good news?
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これが悲しい現実ですが
18:23
I'm supposed to be up here telling you the good news.
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喜ばしいことも必要ですね
18:25
Well, the good news, I think,
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肯定的側面は
18:27
is what I started with at the beginning of the Talk,
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冒頭で触れたように
18:29
which is that humans are not only smart;
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人間は賢いだけではなく
18:31
we're really inspirationally smart
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生物界の中でも
18:33
to the rest of the animals in the biological kingdom.
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感動するほどに
18:36
We're so good at overcoming our biological limitations --
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賢いことです
18:39
you know, I flew over here in an airplane.
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羽をバタバタさせなくても
18:41
I didn't have to try to flap my wings.
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ここまで飛行機で来れましたし
18:43
I'm wearing contact lenses now so that I can see all of you.
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今しているように コンタクトを使用すれば
18:46
I don't have to rely on my own near-sightedness.
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近視でも皆さんがちゃんと見えます
18:49
We actually have all of these cases
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このように人間は
18:51
where we overcome our biological limitations
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生まれもった力の限界を
18:54
through technology and other means, seemingly pretty easily.
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技術などを使って容易に乗り越えています
18:57
But we have to recognize that we have those limitations.
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でも限界があることを認識しなければいけません
19:00
And here's the rub.
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厄介なことです
19:02
It was Camus who once said that, "Man is the only species
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作家のカミュは言いました
19:04
who refuses to be what he really is."
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“人間は 本来の姿でいることを拒む唯一の種だ”
19:07
But the irony is that
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限界を知らない限り
19:09
it might only be in recognizing our limitations
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限界を乗り越えることは
19:11
that we can really actually overcome them.
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無理かもしれないのが皮肉ですが
19:13
The hope is that you all will think about your limitations,
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克服できない限界として考えるのではなく
19:16
not necessarily as unovercomable,
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限界を認識して 受け入れて
19:19
but to recognize them, accept them
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デザイン界に答えを
19:21
and then use the world of design to actually figure them out.
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見つけ出せる希望を抱けます
19:24
That might be the only way that we will really be able
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これこそ人間の可能性を最大限にして
19:27
to achieve our own human potential
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立派な種と名乗るための
19:29
and really be the noble species we hope to all be.
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唯一の方法かもしれません
19:32
Thank you.
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ありがとう
19:34
(Applause)
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(拍手)
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