Laurie Santos: How monkeys mirror human irrationality

Translator: Katarina Kesselova Reviewer: Roman Studenic

I want to start my talk today with two observations

Na úvod chcem začať dvoma postrehmi

about the human species.

o ľudskom druhu.

The first observation is something that you might think is quite obvious,

Prvá poznámka, o ktorej si môžte myslieť, že je celkom očividná

and that's that our species, Homo sapiens,

je, že náš druh Homo sapiens,

is actually really, really smart --

je veľmi, veľmi chytrý -

like, ridiculously smart --

priam neuveriteľne chytrý.

like you're all doing things

Robíme všetky tie veci,

that no other species on the planet does right now.

ktoré žiaden iný druh na planéte nedokáže.

And this is, of course,

Pochopiteľne toto nie je

not the first time you've probably recognized this.

prvýkrát, čo ste si to uvedomili.

Of course, in addition to being smart, we're also an extremely vain species.

Popritom že sme chytrí, sme aj neuveriteľne namyslený druh.

So we like pointing out the fact that we're smart.

Radi zdôrazňujeme, že sme chytrí.

You know, so I could turn to pretty much any sage

Môžem sa obrátiť na ktorékoľvek mudrca,

from Shakespeare to Stephen Colbert

od Shakespeara po Stephena Colberta

to point out things like the fact that

aby som ukázala,

we're noble in reason and infinite in faculties

že sme výborní v úsudku a máme neohraničené schopnosti,

and just kind of awesome-er than anything else on the planet

a že sme lepší než čokoľvek iné na planéte,

when it comes to all things cerebral.

keď príde na racionalitu.

But of course, there's a second observation about the human species

Ale druhý postreh o ľudskom druhu,

that I want to focus on a little bit more,

ktorému sa chcem venovať o niečo viac

and that's the fact that

je fakt, že

even though we're actually really smart, sometimes uniquely smart,

aj keď sme skutočne veľmi chytrí, niekedy jedinečne chytrí,

we can also be incredibly, incredibly dumb

dokážeme byť neuveriteľne hlúpi

when it comes to some aspects of our decision making.

v určitých aspektoch rozhodovania.

Now I'm seeing lots of smirks out there.

Teraz na vás vidím, že sa uškŕňate.

Don't worry, I'm not going to call anyone in particular out

Nebojte sa, nevyvolám nikoho z vás,

on any aspects of your own mistakes.

aby sme si tie chyby ukázali.

But of course, just in the last two years

Práve z posledných dvoch rokoch

we see these unprecedented examples of human ineptitude.

máme nebývalé dôkazy o ľudskej neobratnosti.

And we've watched as the tools we uniquely make

Keď nástroje, ktoré vyrábame,

to pull the resources out of our environment

aby sme získali prírodné zdroje,

kind of just blow up in our face.

spôsobujú katastrofy.

We've watched the financial markets that we uniquely create --

Keď finančné trhy, ktoré sme vytvorili,

these markets that were supposed to be foolproof --

trhy, ktoré mali byť spoľahlivé,

we've watched them kind of collapse before our eyes.

sa nám pred očami zrútili.

But both of these two embarrassing examples, I think,

Ale tieto dva zahanbujúce príklady,

don't highlight what I think is most embarrassing

nezvýrazňujú dostatočne, čo je najtrápnejšie

about the mistakes that humans make,

na chybách, ktoré ľudia robia

which is that we'd like to think that the mistakes we make

čo je, že si myslíme, že chyby, ktoré robíme

are really just the result of a couple bad apples

sú len výsledkom zopár zlých rozhodnutí

or a couple really sort of FAIL Blog-worthy decisions.

zopár zlyhaní hodných "FAIL blogov".

But it turns out, what social scientists are actually learning

Ale sociálni vedci zisťujú,

is that most of us, when put in certain contexts,

že väčšina z nás, v určitých situáciách

will actually make very specific mistakes.

bude robiť veľmi špecifické typy chýb.

The errors we make are actually predictable.

Chyby, ktoré robíme sú dokonca predpovedateľné.

We make them again and again.

Robíme ich znova a znova.

And they're actually immune to lots of evidence.

A sú imúnne voči dôkazom.

When we get negative feedback,

Aj keď dostaneme negatívnu spätnú väzbu,

we still, the next time we're face with a certain context,

opäť v podobnej situácii

tend to make the same errors.

zvykneme robiť rovnaké chyby.

And so this has been a real puzzle to me

Toto bolo pre mňa

as a sort of scholar of human nature.

ako výskumníčku ľudskej povahy záhadou.

What I'm most curious about is,

Čo ma zaujíma je to,

how is a species that's as smart as we are

ako je druh, ktorý je tak chytrý ako my,

capable of such bad

schopný takých zlých

and such consistent errors all the time?

a takých konzistentných chýb?

You know, we're the smartest thing out there, why can't we figure this out?

Sme to najchytrejšie, čo poznáme, prečo na to nevieme prísť?

In some sense, where do our mistakes really come from?

Z čoho pramenia naše chyby?

And having thought about this a little bit, I see a couple different possibilities.

Keď som o tom uvažovala, napadlo ma zopár možností.

One possibility is, in some sense, it's not really our fault.

Jedna možnosť je, že to nie je v skutočnosti naša chyba.

Because we're a smart species,

Pretože sme chytrým druhom,

we can actually create all kinds of environments

vytvárame rôzne druhy prostredí,

that are super, super complicated,

ktoré sú super komplikované,

sometimes too complicated for us to even actually understand,

niekedy tak komplikované, že im nerozumieme ani my,

even though we've actually created them.

ktorí sme ich vytvorili.

We create financial markets that are super complex.

Vytvárame super zložité finančné trhy.

We create mortgage terms that we can't actually deal with.

Vytvárame hypotekárne podmienky, s ktorými si nevieme rady.

And of course, if we are put in environments where we can't deal with it,

A keď sa v týchto situáciách ocitneme, nevieme si poradiť,

in some sense makes sense that we actually

v podstate to dáva zmysel,

might mess certain things up.

že určité veci popletieme.

If this was the case, we'd have a really easy solution

Ak by to bolo takto, mali by sme jednoduché riešenie

to the problem of human error.

problému ľudskej omylnosti.

We'd actually just say, okay, let's figure out

Len by sme mali určiť,

the kinds of technologies we can't deal with,

s ktorými technológiami si nevieme rady,

the kinds of environments that are bad --

tie situácie, ktoré sú zlé

get rid of those, design things better,

a zbaviť sa ich, spraviť ich lepšie

and we should be the noble species

a boli by sme vznešeným druhom,

that we expect ourselves to be.

ktorým chceme byť.

But there's another possibility that I find a little bit more worrying,

Ale druhá možnosť, ktorá ma viac znepokojuje

which is, maybe it's not our environments that are messed up.

je, že to nie je prostredie, ktoré nás mýli.

Maybe it's actually us that's designed badly.

Možno sme to my, kto je zle navrhnutí.

This is a hint that I've gotten

Toto ma napadlo pri pozeraní

from watching the ways that social scientists have learned about human errors.

na výskumy sociálnych vedcov študujúcich ľudské chyby.

And what we see is that people tend to keep making errors

Čo vidíme je, že ľudia zvyknú robiť rovnaké chyby

exactly the same way, over and over again.

stále dookola.

It feels like we might almost just be built

Akoby sme boli už tak nastavení,

to make errors in certain ways.

robiť chyby určitým spôsobom.

This is a possibility that I worry a little bit more about,

Táto možnosť ma znepokojuje viac,

because, if it's us that's messed up,

lebo ak je problém v nás,

it's not actually clear how we go about dealing with it.

nezdá sa, že s tým môžme niečo urobiť.

We might just have to accept the fact that we're error prone

Mohli by sme to akceptovať, že sme náchylní robiť chyby

and try to design things around it.

a všetko tomu prispôsobiť.

So this is the question my students and I wanted to get at.

S mojimi študentami sa snažíme dopátrať odpovede.

How can we tell the difference between possibility one and possibility two?

Ako rozoznáme prvú a druhú možnosť?

What we need is a population

Potrebujeme populáciu,

that's basically smart, can make lots of decisions,

ktorá je síce chytrá, robí rozhodnutia

but doesn't have access to any of the systems we have,

ale nemá prístup k systémom, ktoré máme my,

any of the things that might mess us up --

ktoré nás môžu zmiasť,

no human technology, human culture,

žiadne ľudské technológie, kultúra,

maybe even not human language.

možno dokonca ani jazyk.

And so this is why we turned to these guys here.

Preto sme sa obrátili na týchto tu.

These are one of the guys I work with. This is a brown capuchin monkey.

Toto je jeden z nich. Toto je hnedá kapucínska opica.

These guys are New World primates,

Sú to primáty Nového Sveta,

which means they broke off from the human branch

čo znamená, že sa odklonili od ľudskej vetvy

about 35 million years ago.

pred 36 miliónmi rokov.

This means that your great, great, great great, great, great --

To znamená, že vaša pra, pra, pra, pra, pra, pra

with about five million "greats" in there --

za tým asi päť miliónov "pra-"

grandmother was probably the same great, great, great, great

babka bola pravdepodobne tá istá pra, pra, pra, pra, pra

grandmother with five million "greats" in there

babka s piatimi miliónmi "pra"

as Holly up here.

ako má Holly, ktorú máme tu.

You know, so you can take comfort in the fact that this guy up here is a really really distant,

Takže môžete sa utešovať, že tieto tvory sú síce veľmi vzdialenými,

but albeit evolutionary, relative.

ale evolučnými príbuznými.

The good news about Holly though is that

Dobrá vec na Holly je,

she doesn't actually have the same kinds of technologies we do.

že nemá také technológie ako my.

You know, she's a smart, very cut creature, a primate as well,

Je to chytrý, rozkošný primát

but she lacks all the stuff we think might be messing us up.

ale nestretáva sa s ničím, čo nás dokáže popliesť.

So she's the perfect test case.

Skvele sa hodí do výskumu.

What if we put Holly into the same context as humans?

Čo ak dáme Holly do rovnakého kontextu ako ľudí?

Does she make the same mistakes as us?

Bude robiť rovnaké chyby ako my?

Does she not learn from them? And so on.

Nebude sa z nich učiť? A tak ďalej.

And so this is the kind of thing we decided to do.

Takže takto sme sa rozhodli.

My students and I got very excited about this a few years ago.

Mňa a mojich študentov to pred pár rokmi veľmi nadchlo.

We said, all right, let's, you know, throw so problems at Holly,

Povedali sme si, dajme Holly problémy,

see if she messes these things up.

uvidíme, či ich popletie.

First problem is just, well, where should we start?

Prvý problém bol, nuž, ako začať?

Because, you know, it's great for us, but bad for humans.

Pre nás je to skvelé ale pre ľudí nie.

We make a lot of mistakes in a lot of different contexts.

Robíme veľa chýb v rôznych kontextoch.

You know, where are we actually going to start with this?

Takže, kde máme v skutočnosti začať?

And because we started this work around the time of the financial collapse,

A keďže sme sa tomu začali venovať v období finančnej krízy,

around the time when foreclosures were hitting the news,

keď sa zabavovali hypotéky,

we said, hhmm, maybe we should

povedali sme si, že by sme mali

actually start in the financial domain.

začať vo finančnej oblasti.

Maybe we should look at monkey's economic decisions

Mali by sme sa pozrieť na ekonomické rozhodovanie opíc

and try to see if they do the same kinds of dumb things that we do.

a pokúsiť sa zistiť, či robia rovnko hlúpe chyby ako my.

Of course, that's when we hit a sort second problem --

Narazili sme na technický problém

a little bit more methodological --

a trochu metodologický

which is that, maybe you guys don't know,

a to, možno o tom neviete

but monkeys don't actually use money. I know, you haven't met them.

ale opice nepoužívaú peniaze. Viem, že ste sa s nimi ešte nestretli.

But this is why, you know, they're not in the queue behind you

To preto nestoja za vami v rade pri pokladni

at the grocery store or the ATM -- you know, they don't do this stuff.

alebo pri bankomate, oni toto nerobia.

So now we faced, you know, a little bit of a problem here.

Takže sme narazili na maličký problém.

How are we actually going to ask monkeys about money

Ako sa môžme opíc pýtať na peniaze,

if they don't actually use it?

keď ich nepoužívajú?

So we said, well, maybe we should just, actually just suck it up

Museli sme sa s tým zmieriť

and teach monkeys how to use money.

a naučiť opice používať peniaze.

So that's just what we did.

Takže sme to urobili.

What you're looking at over here is actually the first unit that I know of

Práve sa pozeráte na prvú jednotku, o ktorej viem,

of non-human currency.

nehumánnej meny.

We weren't very creative at the time we started these studies,

Neboli sme nijak kreatívni, keď sme s tým začali

so we just called it a token.

nazvali sme ich žetón.

But this is the unit of currency that we've taught our monkeys at Yale

Toto platidlo sme naučili opice na Yale

to actually use with humans,

používať, kupovať si

to actually buy different pieces of food.

od ľudí rozličné kúsky jedla.

It doesn't look like much -- in fact, it isn't like much.

Nevyzerá, že by to malo veľkú hodnotu, ani nemá.

Like most of our money, it's just a piece of metal.

Tak ako naše mince, aj táto je z kovu.

As those of you who've taken currencies home from your trip know,

Ako tí z vás, ktorí si beriete mince z dovolenky domov,

once you get home, it's actually pretty useless.

doma sú bezcenné.

It was useless to the monkeys at first

Spočiatku boli bezcenné i pre opice.

before they realized what they could do with it.

Kým si neuvedomili, čo s nimi dokážu.

When we first gave it to them in their enclosures,

Keď sme ich im dali prvýkrát,

they actually kind of picked them up, looked at them.

zdvihli ich, poprezerali.

They were these kind of weird things.

Boli to len čudné veci.

But very quickly, the monkeys realized

Ale opice si rýchlo uvedomili,

that they could actually hand these tokens over

že keď žetón odovzdajú

to different humans in the lab for some food.

ľuďom v labáku, dostajú jedlo.

And so you see one of our monkeys, Mayday, up here doing this.

Tu práve vidíte jednu z našich opíc, Mayday.

This is A and B are kind of the points where she's sort of a little bit

Tu je ešte trochu

curious about these things -- doesn't know.

zvedavá, nevie, čo sú to za veci.

There's this waiting hand from a human experimenter,

A tu ich vymieňa s experimentátorom.

and Mayday quickly figures out, apparently the human wants this.

Mayday rýchlo pochopila, že človek ich chce.

Hands it over, and then gets some food.

Odovzdá žetón a potom dostane jedlo.

It turns out not just Mayday, all of our monkeys get good

Ukázalo sa, že nielen Mayday ale všetky naše opice

at trading tokens with human salesman.

dokázali meniť žetóny s ľudskými predavačmi.

So here's just a quick video of what this looks like.

Tu je krátke video, ako to vyzeralo.

Here's Mayday. She's going to be trading a token for some food

Tu je Mayday, vymieňa žetón za jedlo

and waiting happily and getting her food.

a veselo čaká na svoje jedlo.

Here's Felix, I think. He's our alpha male; he's a kind of big guy.

Tu je Felix, náš alfa samec, je to veľký chlapík.

But he too waits patiently, gets his food and goes on.

Ale tiež trpezlivo čaká na svoje jedlo.

So the monkeys get really good at this.

Takže opice sú v tom naozaj dobré.

They're surprisingly good at this with very little training.

Po malom tréningu prekvapujúco dobré.

We just allowed them to pick this up on their own.

Len sme im umožnili naučiť sa to.

The question is: is this anything like human money?

Otázkou je, dá sa to vôbec porovnať s ľudskými peniazmi?

Is this a market at all,

Je toto vôbec trh

or did we just do a weird psychologist's trick

alebo sme spravili len divný psychologický trik,

by getting monkeys to do something,

že opice niečo robia,

looking smart, but not really being smart.

vyzerajú chytro ale v skutočnosti nie sú.

And so we said, well, what would the monkeys spontaneously do

Čo by opice robili spontánne,

if this was really their currency, if they were really using it like money?

keby toto bolo ich platidlo, keby ho naozaj používali ako peniaze?

Well, you might actually imagine them

Dokážete si ich predstaviť,

to do all the kinds of smart things

že robia všelijaké chytré veci

that humans do when they start exchanging money with each other.

ako ľudia, keď si peniaze vymieňajú.

You might have them start paying attention to price,

Začnú dávať pozor na cenu,

paying attention to how much they buy --

na to, koľko kupujú

sort of keeping track of their monkey token, as it were.

proste dávať si na svoje žetóny pozor.

Do the monkeys do anything like this?

Robia niečo také aj opice?

And so our monkey marketplace was born.

Tak sa zrodil náš trh pre opice.

The way this works is that

Funguje to tak,

our monkeys normally live in a kind of big zoo social enclosure.

že naše opice žijú akoby v zoologickom výbehu.

When they get a hankering for some treats,

Keď dostanú chuť na pochúťky,

we actually allowed them a way out

umožníme im vyjsť

into a little smaller enclosure where they could enter the market.

do menšej ohrady, kde majú trh.

Upon entering the market --

Keď prídu na trh,

it was actually a much more fun market for the monkeys than most human markets

trh bol oveľa zábavnejší pre opice ako pre ľudí,

because, as the monkeys entered the door of the market,

lebo keď opice prišli k dverám trhu

a human would give them a big wallet full of tokens

dostali plnú peňaženku žetónov

so they could actually trade the tokens

a mohli si ich vymeniť

with one of these two guys here --

u dvoch chlapíkov,

two different possible human salesmen

dvoch možných ľudských predavačov,

that they could actually buy stuff from.

od ktorých mohli kupovať.

The salesmen were students from my lab.

Predavačmi boli študenti z môjho laboratória.

They dressed differently; they were different people.

Mali odlišné oblečenie, boli to rôzni ľudia.

And over time, they did basically the same thing

A celý čas robili to isté,

so the monkeys could learn, you know,

aby sa opice mohli učiť,

who sold what at what price -- you know, who was reliable, who wasn't, and so on.

čo kto predáva a za akú cenu, viete, kto je spoľahlivý a kto nie atď.

And you can see that each of the experimenters

Vidíte, že každý z experimentátorov

is actually holding up a little, yellow food dish.

drží malý žltý podnos s jedlom.

and that's what the monkey can for a single token.

Ten opica dostane za jeden žetón.

So everything costs one token,

Takže všetko stojí jeden žetón,

but as you can see, sometimes tokens buy more than others,

ale ako vidíte, niekedy za jeden dostanete viac,

sometimes more grapes than others.

viac hrozna.

So I'll show you a quick video of what this marketplace actually looks like.

Ukážem vám krátke video, ako to na trhu vyzerá.

Here's a monkey-eye-view. Monkeys are shorter, so it's a little short.

Z pohľadu opce. Keďže sú nižšie, je to nízko.

But here's Honey.

Tu je Honey.

She's waiting for the market to open a little impatiently.

Netrpezlivo čaká, kým sa otvorí trh.

All of a sudden the market opens. Here's her choice: one grapes or two grapes.

A zrazu sa otvorí. Jej možnosti: jedno hrozno alebo dve.

You can see Honey, very good market economist,

Ako vidíte, Honey je dobrá ekonómka,

goes with the guy who gives more.

ide k tomu, kto dá viac.

She could teach our financial advisers a few things or two.

Aj našich finančných poradcov by mohla učiť.

So not just Honey,

Nielen Honey,

most of the monkeys went with guys who had more.

väčšina z našich opíc pôjde za tým, kto dáva viac.

Most of the monkeys went with guys who had better food.

Väčšina opíc pôjde za tým, kto dáva lepšie jedlo.

When we introduced sales, we saw the monkeys paid attention to that.

Keď sme prišli so zľavami, opice to zaujalo.

They really cared about their monkey token dollar.

Starali sa o svoje žetóny.

The more surprising thing was that when we collaborated with economists

Prekvapujúcejšie bolo, keď sme spolupracovali s ekonómami,

to actually look at the monkeys' data using economic tools,

ktorí keď na údaje od opíc použili ekonomické nástroje,

they basically matched, not just qualitatively,

zhodovali sa, nielen kvalitatívne

but quantitatively with what we saw

ale kvantitatívne s tým,

humans doing in a real market.

čo robia ľudia na reálnom trhu.

So much so that, if you saw the monkeys' numbers,

Dokonca tak, že ak by ste videli údaje,

you couldn't tell whether they came from a monkey or a human in the same market.

nerozoznali by ste, či sú od opíc alebo ľudí.

And what we'd really thought we'd done

Takže sme si mysleli,

is like we'd actually introduced something

že sme zaviedli niečo,

that, at least for the monkeys and us,

čo aspoň pre opice a nás

works like a real financial currency.

fungovalo ako peňažné platidlo.

Question is: do the monkeys start messing up in the same ways we do?

Otázkou je, či sa opice nechajú tak popliesť ako my.

Well, we already saw anecdotally a couple of signs that they might.

Zaznamenali sme niekoľko znakov, že by to tak mohlo byť.

One thing we never saw in the monkey marketplace

Jednu z vecí, ktorú sme si u opíc nikdy nevšimli

was any evidence of saving --

bol akýkoľvek náznak šetrenia,

you know, just like our own species.

tak ako i náš vlastný druh.

The monkeys entered the market, spent their entire budget

Keď prišli opice na trh, minuli celý svoj rozpočet

and then went back to everyone else.

a tak sa vrátili za ostatnými.

The other thing we also spontaneously saw,

Čo sme tiež spozorovali,

embarrassingly enough,

a je to zahanbujúce,

is spontaneous evidence of larceny.

je spontánny výskyt krádeží.

The monkeys would rip-off the tokens at every available opportunity --

Opice si kradli žetóny pri každej príležitosti.

from each other, often from us --

Navzájom i od nás,

you know, things we didn't necessarily think we were introducing,

ani nás nenapadlo, že to spôsobíme

but things we spontaneously saw.

ale spontánne to vzniklo.

So we said, this looks bad.

Povedali sme si, že to vyzerá zle.

Can we actually see if the monkeys

Uvidíme teda, či opice

are doing exactly the same dumb things as humans do?

robia rovnako hlúpe veci ako ľudia?

One possibility is just kind of let

Jednou možnosťou je nechať

the monkey financial system play out,

finančný systém opíc rozvíjať sa,

you know, see if they start calling us for bailouts in a few years.

viete, či nás o pár rokov začnú žiadať o finančné injekcie.

We were a little impatient so we wanted

Ale boli sme netrpezliví a chceli sme

to sort of speed things up a bit.

to trochu urýchliť.

So we said, let's actually give the monkeys

Tak sme opiciam dali

the same kinds of problems

rovnaké problémy,

that humans tend to get wrong

ktoré mýlia i ľudí,

in certain kinds of economic challenges,

určité ekonomické výzvy,

or certain kinds of economic experiments.

určité ekonomické experimenty.

And so, since the best way to see how people go wrong

Keďže najlepším spôsobom ako zistiť v čom sa ľudia mýlia,

is to actually do it yourself,

je vyskúšať si to,

I'm going to give you guys a quick experiment

dám vám rýchly experiment

to sort of watch your own financial intuitions in action.

zisťujúci vaše finančné intuície v akcii.

So imagine that right now

Predstavte si,

I handed each and every one of you

že každému z vás dám

a thousand U.S. dollars -- so 10 crisp hundred dollar bills.

tisíc dolárov, desať novučkých stodolároviek.

Take these, put it in your wallet

Zoberte si ich, dajte si ich do peňaženky

and spend a second thinking about what you're going to do with it.

a popremýšľajte, čo s nimi urobíte.

Because it's yours now; you can buy whatever you want.

Lebo už sú vaše, môžete s nimi robiť čokoľvek.

Donate it, take it, and so on.

Venuje ich, miňte atď.

Sounds great, but you get one more choice to earn a little bit more money.

Znie to skvele ale máte ešte jednu možnosť, ako si zarobiť.

And here's your choice: you can either be risky,

Tu je: môžete buď zariskovať

in which case I'm going to flip one of these monkey tokens.

v tom prípade hodím týmto žetónom.

If it comes up heads, you're going to get a thousand dollars more.

Keď padne hlava, dostanete o tisíc viac.

If it comes up tails, you get nothing.

Ak znak, nedostanete nič.

So it's a chance to get more, but it's pretty risky.

Je šanca na viac ale dosť riskantná.

Your other option is a bit safe. Your just going to get some money for sure.

Druhá možnosť je istejšia. Istotne dostanete viac.

I'm just going to give you 500 bucks.

Dám vám ešte päťsto.

You can stick it in your wallet and use it immediately.

Môžete si ich dať do peňaženky a hneď použiť.

So see what your intuition is here.

Aká je vaša intuícia?

Most people actually go with the play-it-safe option.

Väčšina ľudí pôjde na istotu.

Most people say, why should I be risky when I can get 1,500 dollars for sure?

Prečo riskovať, keď môžem s istotou dostať 1500 dolárov?

This seems like a good bet. I'm going to go with that.

Vyzerá to ako dobrá stávka.

You might say, eh, that's not really irrational.

Môžete si povedať, to nie je veľmi racionálne.

People are a little risk-averse. So what?

Ľudia sa vyhýbajú riziku. No a čo?

Well, the "so what?" comes when start thinking

"No a čo" sa objaví,

about the same problem

keď rovnaký problém

set up just a little bit differently.

postavíme odlišne.

So now imagine that I give each and every one of you

Teraz si predstavte, že každému z vás

2,000 dollars -- 20 crisp hundred dollar bills.

dám dvetisíc dolárov, dvadsať stodolároviek.

Now you can buy double to stuff you were going to get before.

Teraz si môžte kúpiť dvojnások toho, čo ste si predtým želali.

Think about how you'd feel sticking it in your wallet.

Porozmýšľajte, aké by to bolo dávať si ich do peňaženky.

And now imagine that I have you make another choice

A teraz sa musíte rozhodnúť.

But this time, it's a little bit worse.

Ale tentokrát je to horšie.

Now, you're going to be deciding how you're going to lose money,

Budete sa rozhodovať o tom, ako prídete o peniaze

but you're going to get the same choice.

ale možnosti sú rovnaké.

You can either take a risky loss --

Môžete úplne riskovať,

so I'll flip a coin. If it comes up heads, you're going to actually lose a lot.

takže hodím mincou. Ak padne hlava, prídete o všetko.

If it comes up tails, you lose nothing, you're fine, get to keep the whole thing --

Keď znak, neprídete o nič, môžete si nechať všetko.

or you could play it safe, which means you have to reach back into your wallet

Alebo pôjdete na istotu, čo znamená, že siahnete do peňaženky

and give me five of those $100 bills, for certain.

a vrátite mi päť stodolároviek.

And I'm seeing a lot of furrowed brows out there.

Vidím v hľadisku zvraštené čelá.

So maybe you're having the same intuitions

Možno máte rovnaké intuície

as the subjects that were actually tested in this,

ako subjekty, ktoré sme tým už testovali,

which is when presented with these options,

keď sme im predložili tieto možnosti,

people don't choose to play it safe.

ľudia neradi idú na istotu.

They actually tend to go a little risky.

Zvyknú riskovať.

The reason this is irrational is that we've given people in both situations

Dôvod je iracionálny, v oboch prípadoch

the same choice.

ide o rovnaké možnosti.

It's a 50/50 shot of a thousand or 2,000,

Je to 50:50 šanca na tisíc alebo dvetisíc

or just 1,500 dollars with certainty.

alebo s istotou 1500.

But people's intuitions about how much risk to take

Ale ochota ľudí riskovať

varies depending on where they started with.

sa mení v závislosti od toho, s čím začali.

So what's going on?

O čo tu ide?

Well, it turns out that this seems to be the result

Ukázalo sa, že je to dôsledok

of at least two biases that we have at the psychological level.

aspoň dvoch systematických chýb na psychologickej úrovni.

One is that we have a really hard time thinking in absolute terms.

Po prvé, veľmi ťažko sa nám rozmýšľa v absolútnych pojmoch.

You really have to do work to figure out,

Musíte sa posnažiť, aby ste zistili,

well, one option's a thousand, 2,000;

jedna možnosť je 2000

one is 1,500.

druhá 1500.

Instead, we find it very easy to think in very relative terms

namiesto toho sa nám ľahko rozmýšľa v relatívnych pojmoch,

as options change from one time to another.

keď sa možnosti menia.

So we think of things as, "Oh, I'm going to get more," or "Oh, I'm going to get less."

Rozmýšľame o veciach ako "Ó, tu dostanem viac" či "ˇÓ tu dostanem menej"

This is all well and good, except that

To je v poriadku lenže

changes in different directions

zmeny v rozličných smeroch

actually effect whether or not we think

ovplyvňujú, či si myslíme alebo nie,

options are good or not.

že možnosť je dobrá.

And this leads to the second bias,

A to nás vedie k druhej chybe,

which economists have called loss aversion.

ktorú ekonómovia nazývajú averzia k strate.

The idea is that we really hate it when things go into the red.

Nenávidíme, keď ideme do mínusu.

We really hate it when we have to lose out on some money.

Nenávidíme, keď máme prísť o peniaze.

And this means that sometimes we'll actually

A to spôsobuje, že niekedy

switch our preferences to avoid this.

zmeníme svoje preferencie, aby sme sa tomu vyhli.

What you saw in that last scenario is that

V poslednej ukážke ste videli,

subjects get risky

že subjekty riskujú,

because they want the small shot that there won't be any loss.

lebo chcú tú malú šancu, že nedôjde k žiadnej strate.

That means when we're in a risk mindset --

Keď sme nastavení na riziko,

excuse me, when we're in a loss mindset,

prepáčte, keď sme nastavení na stratu,

we actually become more risky,

začneme viac riskovať,

which can actually be really worrying.

čo môže byť znepokojujúce.

These kinds of things play out in lots of bad ways in humans.

Takéto veci môžu pre ľudí dopadnúť zle.

They're why stock investors hold onto losing stocks longer --

Preto sa investori nezbavia klesajúcich akcií

because they're evaluating them in relative terms.

lebo ich hodnotia v relatívnych pojomoch.

They're why people in the housing market refused to sell their house --

Preto ľudia odmietajú predať svoj dom,

because they don't want to sell at a loss.

lebo nechcú predať so stratou.

The question we were interested in

To, čo zaujíma nás, je,

is whether the monkeys show the same biases.

či sú opice rovnako predpojaté.

If we set up those same scenarios in our little monkey market,

Ak vytvoríme rovnaké scenáre na trhu opíc,

would they do the same thing as people?

budú robiť to isté čo ľudia?

And so this is what we did, we gave the monkeys choices

Urobili sme to, dali sme opiciam na výber

between guys who were safe -- they did the same thing every time --

medzi chalanmi, čo boli bezpeční, robili vždy rovnaké veci

or guys who were risky --

a chalanmi riskantnými,

they did things differently half the time.

ktorí robili spolovice veci inak.

And then we gave them options that were bonuses --

A potom sme im dali bonusové možnosti

like you guys did in the first scenario --

ako vy v tom prvom prípade,

so they actually have a chance more,

mali šancu na viac

or pieces where they were experiencing losses --

alebo zažívali stratu,

they actually thought they were going to get more than they really got.

keď si mysleli, že dostanú viac, než naozaj dostali.

And so this is what this looks like.

Vyzeralo to takto.

We introduced the monkeys to two new monkey salesmen.

Opiciam sme predstavili dvoch nových predavačov.

The guy on the left and right both start with one piece of grape,

Chalan vľavo i vpravo začali s jedným kúskom hrozna,

so it looks pretty good.

vyzerá to celkom dobre.

But they're going to give the monkeys bonuses.

Ale začali im dávať bonusy.

The guy on the left is a safe bonus.

Chalan vľavo je istý bonus.

All the time, he adds one, to give the monkeys two.

Zakaždým pridá jedno hrozno.

The guy on the right is actually a risky bonus.

Chalan naľavo je riskantný bonus.

Sometimes the monkeys get no bonus -- so this is a bonus of zero.

Niekedy nedá nič, nulový bonus.

Sometimes the monkeys get two extra.

Niekedy dá dve hrozná extra.

For a big bonus, now they get three.

Je to veľký bonus, teraz majú tri bobule.

But this is the same choice you guys just faced.

Je to ten istý výber, ktorý ste robili vy,

Do the monkeys actually want to play it safe

Opice môžu ísť na istotu

and then go with the guy who's going to do the same thing on every trial,

a ísť k predavačovi, čo dá vždy rovnako

or do they want to be risky

alebo budú riskovať

and try to get a risky, but big, bonus,

a pokúsia sa o riskantný veľký bonus,

but risk the possibility of getting no bonus.

a riskujú možnosť, že nedostanú nič.

People here played it safe.

Ľudia v tomto prípade stavili na istotu.

Turns out, the monkeys play it safe too.

Ukázalo sa, že opice tiež.

Qualitatively and quantitatively,

Kvalitatívne i kvantitatívne,

they choose exactly the same way as people,

sa rozhodujú tak ako ľudia,

when tested in the same thing.

keď sú testovaní v rovnakých podmienkach.

You might say, well, maybe the monkeys just don't like risk.

Poviete si, možno len opice nerady riskujú.

Maybe we should see how they do with losses.

Mali by sme sa pozrieť, ako si poradia pri stratách.

And so we ran a second version of this.

Tak sme spustili druhú verziu experimentu.

Now, the monkeys meet two guys

Teraz opice stretnú dvoch chalanov,

who aren't giving them bonuses;

ktorí nedávajú bonusy,

they're actually giving them less than they expect.

ale dajú im menej, než čakali.

So they look like they're starting out with a big amount.

Vyzerajú, že ponúkajú veľa.

These are three grapes; the monkey's really psyched for this.

Majú tri bobule, opice sú vytešené.

But now they learn these guys are going to give them less than they expect.

Ale teraz zistia, že im dajú menej, než čakali.

They guy on the left is a safe loss.

Chalan naľavo je istou stratou.

Every single time, he's going to take one of these away

Zakaždým odoberie jednu bobuľu

and give the monkeys just two.

a dá opice len dve-

the guy on the right is the risky loss.

Chalan vpravo je riskantnou stratou.

Sometimes he gives no loss, so the monkeys are really psyched,

Niekedy neprídu o nič, opice sú nadšené.

but sometimes he actually gives a big loss,

ale niekedy je uňho veľká strata,

taking away two to give the monkeys only one.

odoberie dve bobule a opici dá len jednu.

And so what do the monkeys do?

A čo spravili opice?

Again, same choice; they can play it safe

Opäť, rovnaké možnosti, ísť na istotu

for always getting two grapes every single time,

a vždy zobrať dve hrozná

or they can take a risky bet and choose between one and three.

alebo riskovať medzi jedným a troma.

The remarkable thing to us is that, when you give monkeys this choice,

Pozoruhodné bolo, že keď dáte opici túto možnosť,

they do the same irrational thing that people do.

robia tú istú iracionálnu vec, čo ľudia.

They actually become more risky

Začnú viac riskovať,

depending on how the experimenters started.

podľa toho, ako experiment začal.

This is crazy because it suggests that the monkeys too

To je šialené, lebo to naznačuje, že opice

are evaluating things in relative terms

tiež hodnotia veci v relatívnych pojmoch

and actually treating losses differently than they treat gains.

a pristupujú k stratám inak než k ziskom.

So what does all of this mean?

Čo to všetko znamená?

Well, what we've shown is that, first of all,

Nuž, čo sme tým ukázali je, poprvé,

we can actually give the monkeys a financial currency,

že sme opiciam dali finančné platidlo

and they do very similar things with it.

a oni robili veľmi podobné veci ako my.

They do some of the smart things we do,

Robili niektoré chytré veci ako my,

some of the kind of not so nice things we do,

nejaké nepekné veci, ktoré robíme i my,

like steal it and so on.

ako kradnutie a tak.

But they also do some of the irrational things we do.

Ale rovnako robia i niektoré neracionálne veci ako my.

They systematically get things wrong

Robia systematické chyby

and in the same ways that we do.

rovnakým spôsobom ako my.

This is the first take-home message of the Talk,

Toto by ste si mali z prednášky vziať za svoje,

which is that if you saw the beginning of this and you thought,

ak ste si na začiatku mysleli,

oh, I'm totally going to go home and hire a capuchin monkey financial adviser.

ó, zamestnám kapucínsku opicu ako svojho finančného poradcu.

They're way cuter than the one at ... you know --

Sú zlatučké, ale viete,

Don't do that; they're probably going to be just as dumb

nerobte to, budú pravdepodobne rovnako hlúpe

as the human one you already have.

ako človek, ktorého už zamestnávate.

So, you know, a little bad -- Sorry, sorry, sorry.

Trochu kruté. Prepáčte, prepáčte, prepáčte.

A little bad for monkey investors.

Dosť zlé pre opice investorov.

But of course, you know, the reason you're laughing is bad for humans too.

Ale jasné, to, že sa smejete je zlé i pre ľudí.

Because we've answered the question we started out with.

Lebo sme zodpovedali otázku, s ktorou sme začali.

We wanted to know where these kinds of errors came from.

Chceli sme vedieť, odkiaľ pochádzajú tieto chyby,

And we started with the hope that maybe we can

A začali sme s nádejou, že by sme mohli

sort of tweak our financial institutions,

vylepšiť naše finančné inštitúcie

tweak our technologies to make ourselves better.

vylepšiť naše technológie k lepšiemu.

But what we've learn is that these biases might be a deeper part of us than that.

Ale zistili sme, že tieto chyby sú v nás zakorenené hlbšie.

In fact, they might be due to the very nature

V skutočnosti možno sú súčasťou

of our evolutionary history.

našej evolučnej histórie.

You know, maybe it's not just humans

Asi to nie sú len hlúpi ľudia

at the right side of this chain that's duncey.

na konci reťazca.

Maybe it's sort of duncey all the way back.

Tú hlúposť sme zdedili.

And this, if we believe the capuchin monkey results,

Ak veríme výsledkom od kapucínskych opíc,

means that these duncey strategies

znamená to, že hlúpe stratégie

might be 35 million years old.

môžu byť už 35 miliónov rokov staré.

That's a long time for a strategy

To je dosť dlho pre stratégiu,

to potentially get changed around -- really, really old.

aby sa potenciálne zmenila, veľmi, veľmi veľa.

What do we know about other old strategies like this?

Čo vieme o iných rovnako starých stratégiách?

Well, one thing we know is that they tend to be really hard to overcome.

Vieme jedno, je ich veľmi ťažko prekonať.

You know, think of our evolutionary predilection

Pomyslite na našu evolučnú slabosť

for eating sweet things, fatty things like cheesecake.

pre sladké, tučné veci ako syrové koláče.

You can't just shut that off.

Nedá sa tomu len tak odolať.

You can't just look at the dessert cart as say, "No, no, no. That looks disgusting to me."

Nedokážete sa pozrieť na dezert a povedať: "Fuj vyzerá to nechutne."

We're just built differently.

Sme nastavení inak.

We're going to perceive it as a good thing to go after.

Budeme to vnímať ako niečo, čo chceme.

My guess is that the same thing is going to be true

Podľa mňa je to rovnaké,

when humans are perceiving

keď ľudia vnímajú

different financial decisions.

rozličné finančné rozhodnutia.

When you're watching your stocks plummet into the red,

Keď vidíte, že idete do červených čísel,

when you're watching your house price go down,

keď vidíte, že cena vášho domu klesá,

you're not going to be able to see that

neuvidíte to inak,

in anything but old evolutionary terms.

než v starých evolučných pojmoch.

This means that the biases

To znamená, že chyby,

that lead investors to do badly,

pre ktoré investori zlyhali,

that lead to the foreclosure crisis

ktoré viedli k hypotekárnej kríze

are going to be really hard to overcome.

bude veľmi ťažké prekonať.

So that's the bad news. The question is: is there any good news?

To je zlá správa. Je tu nejaká dobrá?

I'm supposed to be up here telling you the good news.

Mala by som vám rozprávať o dobrých správach.

Well, the good news, I think,

Nuž, dobrou správou, myslím si,

is what I started with at the beginning of the Talk,

je s čím som začala túto prednášku,

which is that humans are not only smart;

že ľudia sú nielen chytrí,

we're really inspirationally smart

sme v skutočnosti inšpirujúco chytrí

to the rest of the animals in the biological kingdom.

v porovnaní so zvyškom zvieracieho kráľovstva.

We're so good at overcoming our biological limitations --

Sme dobrí v prekonávaní našich biologických limitov,

you know, I flew over here in an airplane.

priletela som sem lietadlom,

I didn't have to try to flap my wings.

nemusela som mávať krídlami.

I'm wearing contact lenses now so that I can see all of you.

Mám kontaktné šošovky, aby som vás všetkých videla.

I don't have to rely on my own near-sightedness.

Nemusím sa spoliehať na svoju krátkozrakosť.

We actually have all of these cases

Je mnoho príkladov toho,

where we overcome our biological limitations

ako sme prekonali svoje biologické možnosti

through technology and other means, seemingly pretty easily.

pomocou technológie či inak, zdanlivo jednoducho.

But we have to recognize that we have those limitations.

Ale musíme si tieto limity uvedomiť.

And here's the rub.

A tu je pes zakopaný.

It was Camus who once said that, "Man is the only species

Bol to Camus, ktorý povedal: "Človek je jediný druh,

who refuses to be what he really is."

ktorý odmieta byť tým, čím je."

But the irony is that

Iróniou je, že

it might only be in recognizing our limitations

len pochopením našich limitov,

that we can really actually overcome them.

ich môžeme prekonať.

The hope is that you all will think about your limitations,

Dúfam, že budete o svojich limitoch premýšľať

not necessarily as unovercomable,

nie nutne ako o neprekonateľných,

but to recognize them, accept them

ale prijmete ich

and then use the world of design to actually figure them out.

a vyznáte sa v nich.

That might be the only way that we will really be able

Toto je asi jedný spôsob,

to achieve our own human potential

ako dosiahnuť náš ľudský potenciál

and really be the noble species we hope to all be.

a byť skutočne tým vznešeným druhom, ktorým chceme byť.

Thank you.

Ďakujem.

(Applause)

(Potlesk)