Vicki Arroyo: Let's prepare for our new climate

Translator: Thu-Huong Ha Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans.

Ovo je linija horizonta mog rodnog grada, Nju Orleansa.

It was a great place to grow up,

To je bilo sjajno mesto za odrastanje,

but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world.

ali to je jedno od najranjivijih mesta na svetu.

Half the city is already below sea level.

Pola grada je već ispod nivoa mora.

In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans

2005. svet je posmatrao kako uragan Katrina

and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

razara Nju Orleans i Meksički zaliv.

One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost.

1836 ljudi je umrlo. Nestalo je skoro 300 000 kuća.

These are my mother's, at the top --

Ovo na vrhu je kuća moje majke -

although that's not her car,

iako to nije njen automobil,

it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof --

do krova ga je donela voda od poplave -

and that's my sister's, below.

a ispod je kuća moje sestre.

Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time,

Srećom, njih dve i ostali članovi porodice su se izvukli na vreme,

but they lost their homes, and as you can see,

ali izgubili su svoje domove, i kao što možete da vidite,

just about everything in them.

otprilike sve što je u njima bilo.

Other parts of the world have been hit by storms

Oluje su pogodile i druge delove sveta

in even more devastating ways.

na još razornije načine.

In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath

2008. ciklon Nargis i njegove posledice

killed 138,000 in Myanmar.

ubili su 138 000 ljudi u Mjanmaru.

Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities,

Promena klime utiče na naše domove, naša društva, naš način života.

our way of life. We should be preparing

at every scale and at every opportunity.

Treba da se pripremamo na svakom nivou i u svakoj prilici.

This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to

Ovaj govor priča o pripremljenosti i otpornosti na promene

the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes

koje nailaze i koje će pogoditi naše domove

and our collective home, the Earth.

i naš zajednički dom, Zemlju.

The changes in these times won't affect us all equally.

Promene u ovim vremenima neće nas sve pogoditi podjednako.

There are important distributional consequences,

Postoje važne distributivne posledice

and they're not what you always might think.

koje nisu uvek ono što mislite.

In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households

U Nju Orleansu, domaćinstva koja vode stariji i domaćice

were among the most vulnerable.

bila su među najranjivijim.

For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations,

Za one u ranjivim, niskim zemljama,

how do you put a dollar value on losing your country

kako staviti cenu za gubitak one zemlje gde su vam sahranjeni preci?

where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go?

I kuda će ići vaš narod?

And how will they cope in a foreign land?

I kako će se snaći u stranoj zemlji?

Will there be tensions over immigration,

Da li će biti tenzija zbog imigracija

or conflicts over competition for limited resources?

ili sukoba zbog takmičenja za ograničene resurse?

It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur.

To je već pokrenulo konflikte u Čadu i Darfuru.

Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future.

Voleli to ili ne, spremni ili ne, ovo je naša budućnost.

Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world.

Naravno, neki u ovom novom svetu traže mogućnosti.

That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom

Ovo su Rusi koji stavljaju zastavu na dno okeana kako bi položili pravo

to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice.

na minerale ispod leda Severnog ledenog mora koje se povlači.

But while there might be some short-term individual winners,

Iako možda postoje neki kratkotrajni pobednici,

our collective losses will far outweigh them.

naši zajednički gubici će biti daleko veći.

Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle

Ne treba otići dalje od osiguravajućih kompanija koje se muče da se izbore

to cope with mounting catastrophic losses

sa sve većim katastrofalnim gubicima zbog ekstremnog nevremena.

from extreme weather events.

The military gets it. They call climate change

Vojsci je jasno. Oni promenu klime nazivaju

a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security,

faktorom koji uvećava pretnju i može da ugrozi stabilnost i bezbednost,

while governments around the world are evaluating

dok vlade širom sveta procenjuju kako da odgovore na to.

how to respond.

So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt?

Šta možemo da uradimo? Kako da se pripremimo i prilagodimo?

I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with

Želela bih da navedem tri grupe primera,

adapting to violent storms and floods.

počevši sa prilagođavanjem na jake oluje i poplave.

In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans,

Delovi mosta I-10 Nju Orleansu

with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt

koji su uništeni u Katrini, ponovo su sagrađeni

21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge.

6 metara više kako bi izdržali veće nalete oluja.

And these raised and energy-efficient homes

Ove energetski efikasne, uzdignute domove

were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right

razvili su Bred Pit i organizacija Make it Right

for the hard-hit Ninth Ward.

za teško pogođeno Deveto odeljenje grada.

The devastated church my mom attends has been

Razorena crkva koju posećuje moja majka

not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become

ne samo da je obnovljena da bude viša,

već je i spremna da postane prva Energy Star crkva u zemlji.

the first Energy Star church in the country.

They're selling electricity back to the grid

Oni ponovo prodaju struju distribuciji

thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more.

zahvaljujući solarnim pločama, reflektivnoj boji i ostalom.

Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars.

Njihov račun za struju za mart je bio samo 48 dolara.

Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way,

Ovo su primeri Nju Orleansa koji ovako obnavlja sebe,

but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind.

ali bilo bi bolje kada bi drugi unapred delovali sa ovim na umu.

For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home

Na primer, ovaj otporni dom u Galvestonu

that survived Hurricane Ike,

pretrpeo je uragan Ajk,

when others on neighboring lots clearly did not.

dok drugi na susednim imanjima očigledno nisu.

And around the world, satellites and warning systems

Širom sveta, sateliti i sistemi za uzbune

are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh.

spašavaju živote u okolinama koje su sklone poplavama, poput Bangladeša.

But as important as technology and infrastructure are,

Ali koliko god su bitne tehnologija i infrastruktura,

perhaps the human element is even more critical.

možda je ljudski element još bitniji.

We need better planning and systems for evacuation.

Potrebno nam je bolje planiranje i sistemi za evakuaciju.

We need to better understand how people make decisions

Potrebno nam je da bolje razumemo kako i zašto ljudi odlučuju

in times of crisis, and why.

u kriznim situacijama.

While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation,

Iako je istina da mnogi koji su umrli u Katrini nisu imali pristup transportu,

others who did refused to leave as the storm approached,

drugi koji su ga imali, odbili su da odu kako se oluja približavala,

often because available transportation and shelters

često zbog toga što im dostupni prevoz i skloništa

refused to allow them to take their pets.

nisu dozvoljavali da povedu svoje ljubimce.

Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue.

Zamislite da tokom evakuacije ili spašavanja ostavljate svog ljubimca.

Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed

Srećom, Kongres je 2006. izglasao

the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter)

član o evakuaciji ljubimaca i standardima u transportu. (Smeh)

— it spells "PETS" — to change that.

- skraćenica je "PETS" - kako bi to promenili.

Second, preparing for heat and drought.

Drugo, priprema za vrućinu i sušu.

Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia

Poljoprivrednici su suočeni sa izazovima suše, od Azije

to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma,

do Afrike, od Australije do Oklahome,

while heat waves linked with climate change

dok su talasi vrućina povezani sa promenom klime,

have killed tens of thousands of people

odneli desetine hiljada života

in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010.

u zapadnoj Evropi 2003. i ponovo 2010. u Rusiji.

In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population,

U Etiopiji, 70% populacije, to je sedam-deset,

depends on rainfall for its livelihood.

preživljava od kišnih padavina.

Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation,

Oxfam i Swiss Re, zajedno sa fondacijom Rokfeler

are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces

pomažu zemljoradnicima poput ovog da sagrade terase na padinama

and find other ways to conserve water,

i nađu druge načine da sačuvaju vodu,

but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come.

ali takođe pružaju osiguranje kada dođu suše.

The stability this provides is giving the farmers

Stabilnost koju pruža ovaj potez daje zemljoradnicima pouzdanost da investiraju.

the confidence to invest.

It's giving them access to affordable credit.

Daje im mogućnost pristupačnog kredita.

It's allowing them to become more productive so that

Omogućava im da postanu produktivniji tako da mogu

they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance.

tokom vremena da sami sebi priušte osiguranje, bez pomoći.

It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated

To je pozitivan ciklus koji može da se ponavlja širom sveta u razvoju.

throughout the developing world.

After a lethal 1995 heat wave

Nakon smrtonosnog talasa vrućine 1995.

turned refrigerator trucks from the popular

koji je pretvorio hladnjače čuvenog festivala Taste of Chicago

Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues,

u improvizovane mrtvačnice,

Chicago became a recognized leader,

Čikago je postao prepoznatljivi lider,

tamping down on the urban heat island impact

suzbijajući uticaj urbanih ostrva vrućine

through opening cooling centers,

otvaranjem centara za hlađenje,

outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees,

pomaganjem ugroženih delova grada, sadnjom drveća,

creating cool white or vegetated green roofs.

stvaranjem krovova sa hladno belim ili biljnim pokrivačima.

This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof,

Ovo je zeleni krov gradske većnice, pored dela krova okruga Kuk,

which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface.

koji je 25 stepeni topliji na površini.

Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation

Prošle godine Vašington je poveo naciju

in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part

u instalaciju novih zelenih krovova i ovo delom finansiraju

thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags.

iz poreza od pet centi na plastične kese.

They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs

Troškove ugradnje ovih zelenih krovova dele

with home and building owners.

sa vlasnicima zgrada i kuća.

The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact

Krovovi ne samo da smiruju uticaj urbanog toplotnog ostrva

but they save energy, and therefore money,

nego i štede energiju, a samim tim i novac,

the emissions that cause climate change,

emisije koje izazivaju promenu klime

and they also reduce stormwater runoff.

i takođe smanjuju oticanje kišnice.

So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins.

Tako neka rešenja za vrućinu mogu da pruže dobra rešenja za sve.

Third, adapting to rising seas.

Treće, prilagođavanje morima koja rastu.

Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture,

Porast nivoa mora preti obalskim ekosistemima, poljoprivredi,

even major cities. This is what one to two meters

čak i velikim gradovima. Ovako izgleda podizanje nivoa mora

of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta.

od jednog do dva metra u delti Mekonga.

That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown.

Tu se uzgaja polovina pirinča u Vijetnamu.

Infrastructure is going to be affected.

Infrastruktura će biti pogođena.

Airports around the world are located on the coast.

Aerodromi širom sveta se nalaze na obalama.

It makes sense, right? There's open space,

Ima smisla, zar ne? Tu je otvoreni prostor,

the planes can take off and land without worrying about

avioni mogu da uzleću i sleću, a da ne brinu da li će

creating noise or avoiding tall buildings.

stvarati buku ili izbegavati visoke zgrade.

Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport,

Evo samo jednog primera, aerodrom u San Francisku,

with 16 inches or more of flooding.

gde je 40 cm ili više poplavljeno.

Imagine the staggering cost of protecting

Zamislite neverovatne troškove za zaštitu ove ključne infrastrukture nasipima.

this vital infrastructure with levees.

But there might be some changes in store

Ali možda se pripremaju neke promene koje niste zamišljali

that you might not imagine. For example,

planes require more runway for takeoff

Na primer, avionima je potrebna duža pista za uzletanje,

because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift.

jer zagrejani, ređi vazduh obezbežuje manji uzlet.

San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars

San Francisko takođe troši 40 miliona dolara

to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment,

da ponovo osmisli i dizajnira svoju kanalizaciju i snabdevanje vodom,

as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater,

jer cevi za ispust vode poput ove mogu da se poplave morskom vodom

causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria

i izazovu zapušenje u postrojenju i naškode bakterijama

that are needed to treat the waste.

koje su potrebne za obradu otpada.

So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted

Ove cevi za ispust su nadograđene

to shut seawater off from entering the system.

kako bi sprečile da morska voda uđe u sistem.

Beyond these technical solutions, our work

Pored ovih tehničkih rešenja, naš rad sa udruženjima

at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities

u Centru za promenu klime u Džordžtaunu

encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available

ohrabruje ih da vide koji su to dostupni legalni i politički alati

and to consider how they can accommodate change.

i da razmotre kako oni mogu da omoguće promenu.

For example, in land use, which areas do you want

Na primer, kod primene na kopnu, koja područja želite da zaštitite

to protect, through adding a seawall, for example,

dodavanjem valobrana, na primer,

alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from,

da ih promenite, podizanjem zgrada, ili da pobegnete iz njih

to allow the migration of important natural systems,

kako biste dozvolili migraciju bitnih prirodnih sistema,

such as wetlands or beaches?

poput močvara i plaža?

Other examples to consider. In the U.K.,

Drugi primeri koje treba uzeti u obzir.

the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge.

U Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu, brana na Temzi štiti London od talasa od oluja.

The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network

Mreža azijatskih gradova za otpornost na promenu klime,

is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves.

vraća u život vitalne ekosisteme, poput šumskih mangrova.

These are not only important ecosystems in their own right,

Ovo nisu samo bitni ekosistemi sami po sebi,

but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities.

već su i zaštita zajednica na kopnu.

New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms,

Njujork je neverovatno osetljiv na oluje,

as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise,

kao što možete videti iz ovog dovitljivog znaka, i na porast nivoa mora,

and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding.

kao i na talase od oluja, kao što možete videti iz poplavljenog metroa.

But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates

Ali gore na zemlji, ove izdignute rešetke za ventilaciju metroa

for the subway system show that solutions can be both

pokazuju da rešenja mogu da budu funkcionalna i privlačna.

functional and attractive. In fact, in New York,

Zapravo, u Njujorku, San Francisku i Londonu,

San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned

dizajneri su zamislili načine

ways to better integrate the natural and built environments

da bolje integrišu prirodna i veštačka okruženja

with climate change in mind.

koja se tiču promene kilme.

I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible

Mislim da su ovo inspirativni primeri toga šta je moguće

when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different.

kada osetimo sposobnost da planiramo svet koji će biti drugačiji.

But now, a word of caution.

Ali sada, reč opreza.

Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts.

Prilagođavanje je previše bitno da ga ostavimo stručnjacima.

Why? Well, there are no experts.

Zašto? Pa, stručnjaci ne postoje.

We're entering uncharted territory, and yet

Ulazimo u nove teritorije,

our expertise and our systems are based on the past.

a naše iskustvo i sistemi zasnovani su na prošlosti.

"Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future

Stacionarnost je zamisao da možemo da naslutimo budućnost

based on the past, and plan accordingly,

na osnovu prošlosti i da planiramo s tim na umu

and this principle governs much of our engineering,

i ovim principom se vodi dosta našeg inženjerstva,

našeg dizajna bitne infrastrukture, gradskih sistema snabdevanja vode,

our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems,

pravila građenja, čak i prava na vodu i drugih pravnih presedana.

building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents.

But we can simply no longer rely on established norms.

Ali jednostavno više ne možemo da se oslanjamo na utvrđene norme.

We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations

Funkcionišemo van normi koncentracija ugljen dioksida

that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years.

koje je ova planeta gledala stotinama hiljada godina.

The larger point I'm trying to make is this.

Ovo je šira slika na koju želim da ukažem.

It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities,

Na nama je da pogledamo na naše domove i zajednice,

our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk,

naše slabosti i izloženost riziku

and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive,

i da nađemo način ne samo da preživimo, već i da uspemo

and it's up to us to plan and to prepare

i na nama je da planiramo i pripremimo se

and to call on our government leaders and require them

i pozovemo vođe svojih vlada i od njih zahtevamo

to do the same, even while they address

da urade isto, čak i kada govore o osnovnim uzrocima promene klime.

the underlying causes of climate change.

There are no quick fixes.

Nema brzih popravki.

There are no one-size-fits-all solutions.

Ne postoje jednaka rešenja za sve.

We're all learning by doing.

Svi mi učimo kroz rad.

But the operative word is doing.

Ali ključna reč je rad.

Thank you.

Hvala vam. (Aplauz)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)