Vicki Arroyo: Let's prepare for our new climate

Translator: Thu-Huong Ha Reviewer: Morton Bast

譯者: Ting-Ying Tsai 審譯者: Yuguo Zhang

This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans.

這是我家鄉紐奧良（New Orleans）的天際

It was a great place to grow up,

曾幾何時它是一個很適合小孩長大的地方

but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world.

但是它卻是個世界上很容易受到天然災害的地方其中之一

Half the city is already below sea level.

這城市已有一半已經低與於海平面

In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans

2005年紐奧良在全世界的關注下

and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina.

整個海岸線被卡崔娜(Katrina)颶風摧殘的體無完膚

One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost.

總共有多達一千八百三十六人罹難，幾近300,000個家庭失去家園

These are my mother's, at the top --

這也包含我媽媽的家，在圖片的上方就是被摧殘後的摸樣

although that's not her car,

雖然圖中那台車不是她的

it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof --

但在當時整台車被洪水沖到屋頂

and that's my sister's, below.

在圖片的下方是我姐姐的家

Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time,

不幸中的大幸當時她們都及時逃出去

but they lost their homes, and as you can see,

但是就如同你們所看到她失去了她的家

just about everything in them.

還有所有在裡面的東西

Other parts of the world have been hit by storms

也有其它遭受到風災殘害的地方遍佈在世界各個角落

in even more devastating ways.

遠比卡翠娜所帶來的傷亡還要更加嚴重

In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath

例如在2008年的颶風納格斯(Nargis)當下重創及風災後在緬甸所造成的總傷亡人數

killed 138,000 in Myanmar.

高達138,000人

Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities,

氣侯變遷正在影響著我們的家，我們的社區，

our way of life. We should be preparing

我們生活的方式。我們應該要更加的未雨綢繆

at every scale and at every opportunity.

把握每一個機會並且以更嚴警周全的態度來準備對抗這些天然災害

This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to

這演講的主題是有關如何準備並且以更積極正向的態度

the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes

來面對這些接踵而來的氣候變遷。這些改變將會影響我們的家園

and our collective home, the Earth.

，所有人的家園，甚至地球。

The changes in these times won't affect us all equally.

也許現階段而言，這些環境變化對大家所造成的影響不一

There are important distributional consequences,

但是它所造成的後果是分佈在世界各個角落

and they're not what you always might think.

並且跟你原本想的也許不太一樣

In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households

在紐奧良，那些較年長的或是母系家庭

were among the most vulnerable.

是最脆弱的

For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations,

對那些較貧乏、地勢低窪的國家

how do you put a dollar value on losing your country

如何只為了一美元價值的東西而失去你的國家

where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go?

你的祖先要埋在哪？你的人民要往哪裡去？

And how will they cope in a foreign land?

他們將如何面對這些問題在其它國家

Will there be tensions over immigration,

會不會造成移民族群的緊張情勢

or conflicts over competition for limited resources?

或是因為爭奪有限的資源而造成彼此間的衝突

It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur.

在查德(Chad)和達爾富爾(Darfur)已經為了爭搶石油而鬧的不可開交

Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future.

不管你喜歡不喜歡或是準備好了沒，這就是我們的未來

Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world.

當然，有些人正在找尋機會開拓新世界

That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom

俄羅斯人在海底插了他們的國旗

to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice.

證明那些在融化的北極冰海底的礦產是屬於他們的

But while there might be some short-term individual winners,

也許有些個別得利的短期贏家們

our collective losses will far outweigh them.

但是我們總合起來所失去的會遠遠超過他們所獲得的

Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle

就拿最近的例子來說，現在保險公司正在死命的掙扎著

to cope with mounting catastrophic losses

面對處理著堆積如山的天災保險損失

from extreme weather events.

來自於極端氣侯所帶來的損失

The military gets it. They call climate change

軍方了解其重要性。他們將稱氣侯變遷

a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security,

稱之為威脅加成製造機且可能破壞國家的穩定及安全

while governments around the world are evaluating

當世界各地的政府機關正在評估著

how to respond.

如何回應

So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt?

那我們可以做些什麼？我們如何準備跟適應？

I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with

我在這邊呢想分享三個範例給大家，我們就從

adapting to violent storms and floods.

如何適應兇猛風災跟洪水來開始吧

In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans,

在紐奧良，I-10 土恩(Twin Spans)跨海大橋

with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt

某些橋段在卡翠娜來襲時遭到破壞搗毀已經重建

21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge.

並且比先前還要高出21呎為的就是能夠承受更強大的洪水衝擊

And these raised and energy-efficient homes

還有圖中這些新建的高起及高效節能的房子

were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right

是由布萊德比特（Brad Pitt）與扭轉劣勢(Make it Right)組織協助遭受到

for the hard-hit Ninth Ward.

重創的第九區（Ninth Ward）

The devastated church my mom attends has been

我媽所參與但被風災搗毀的教堂

not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become

不但重建的更高，更被認定為

the first Energy Star church in the country.

美國第一個能源之星（Energy Star）教堂

They're selling electricity back to the grid

他們將所儲存獲取的電力回存到電網

thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more.

感謝太陽能源板、反光漆，還有其它更多的能源科技

Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars.

他們那個三月的電費只有48塊美金

Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way,

現在這只是些例子紐奧良的重建計劃的方式

but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind.

但如果其他人可以將這些方法考慮進去並且更加積極的行動會更好

For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home

舉例來說，在加爾維斯頓（Galveston），有個充滿活力的家庭

that survived Hurricane Ike,

在颶風艾克(Ike)的侵襲下存活下來

when others on neighboring lots clearly did not.

而其它鄰居很明顯的並沒有

And around the world, satellites and warning systems

在世界各地人們利用衛星和警報系統

are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh.

的幫助下拯救了很多居住在洪水氾濫地方的居民像是孟加拉

But as important as technology and infrastructure are,

在面對氣候變遷上，雖然科技與基礎建設都扮演著重要的角色

perhaps the human element is even more critical.

但也許更加重要的是人的因素

We need better planning and systems for evacuation.

我們需要更好的撤離計劃與系統

We need to better understand how people make decisions

我們需要更加的暸解人們如何做決策

in times of crisis, and why.

在危機之中，並且知道為什麼

While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation,

的確有很多在卡翠娜來襲時，多數人是因為無法使用大眾運輸工具而身亡

others who did refused to leave as the storm approached,

但也有些人是因為拒絕離開自己的家園而身亡

often because available transportation and shelters

其原因往往是因為那些大眾運輸工具和避難所

refused to allow them to take their pets.

拒絕也不允許他們帶寵物一起避難

Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue.

想像一下在救難或是撤離行動中丟下你們的寵物自行避難的樣子

Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed

幸運的是在2006年，國會通過了

the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter)

寵物撤離及運輸標準法(Pet Evauation and Transpotation Standards Act)（笑聲）

— it spells "PETS" — to change that.

修正一下-是複數不是只有一隻(PETS, not PET)

Second, preparing for heat and drought.

第二個分享案例為，做好萬全的準備熱浪及乾旱的來襲

Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia

從亞洲到非洲、澳洲到奧克拉馬

to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma,

所有的農夫現正面對著乾旱的挑戰

while heat waves linked with climate change

當熱浪與氣候變遷連合總計

have killed tens of thousands of people

造成數以萬計傷亡人數

in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010.

一次在2003年西歐，另一次在2010年俄羅斯

In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population,

在衣索比亞（Ethiopia）有70%的人仰賴雨水來

depends on rainfall for its livelihood.

生活，沒錯，佔總人口數的“70%”

Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation,

歐克斯范恩(Oxfam)與蘇唯士黎(Swiss Re)，結合羅克費勒(Rockefeller)基金會

are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces

正在幫助那些農夫們建築如圖中的這個山坡露台來儲存雨水

and find other ways to conserve water,

以及尋求其它保存水源的方式

but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come.

當乾旱來襲時,他們也提供農業風災險給農夫們

The stability this provides is giving the farmers

這個保障給予農夫們更多的

the confidence to invest.

自信去投入更多作物

It's giving them access to affordable credit.

它給予他們負擔的起的貸款

It's allowing them to become more productive so that

讓他們能夠更有效率

they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance.

經過一段時間之後，他們可以在不依靠外力的幫助下自行負擔的起農業風災險

It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated

這是一個良性循環，且成功的經驗是可以被複製到

throughout the developing world.

所有發展中的國家

After a lethal 1995 heat wave

在歷經了1995年致命熱浪侵襲後

turned refrigerator trucks from the popular

它將那些在芝加哥美食慶典的冷藏車

Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues,

轉換成臨時搭建的停屍間

Chicago became a recognized leader,

芝加哥成為大家公認的綠能都市的領導者

tamping down on the urban heat island impact

將原本熱浪對衝擊現代都市

through opening cooling centers,

藉由開放的冷卻中心

outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees,

延伸到較易受到熱害影響的社區，藉由種植樹木

creating cool white or vegetated green roofs.

建造不易吸收熱的冷白屋頂及散熱較佳植物綠化能屋頂

This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof,

照片上是市政府的綠能屋頂旁邊這張圖則是庫克（Cook）郡市府[一部分]的屋頂

which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface.

沒覆蓋到綠化屋頂的表面溫度相較之下高了華氏77度

Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation

華府在去年帶領全國打頭陣安裝了

in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part

新綠化屋頂並且投入政府資金在安裝綠化屋頂上

thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags.

感謝五美分塑膠袋稅政策

They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs

它們分擔了住戶及建商安裝綠化屋頂的

with home and building owners.

部分成本

The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact

綠化屋頂不只緩和熱島效應的衝擊

but they save energy, and therefore money,

並且節能、節約

the emissions that cause climate change,

減少造成氣候變遷二氧化碳排放量

and they also reduce stormwater runoff.

它們也降低了雨水的流失

So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins.

所以那些用來解決熱島效應的方法達成了三贏局面

Third, adapting to rising seas.

最後一個範例，如何適應持續上升的海平面

Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture,

海平面的升起威脅到沿岸的生態系統、農業、

even major cities. This is what one to two meters

甚至一些沿岸主要城市。照片裡的是媚公河三角洲在海平面

of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta.

從一公尺上升到兩公尺後的樣貌

That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown.

那個區域也就是半數越南米的來源

Infrastructure is going to be affected.

基礎建設也將受到影響

Airports around the world are located on the coast.

在世界上大多數的機場都遍佈在沿海都市

It makes sense, right? There's open space,

這樣也應該是合理的吧？ 在那邊有很多空曠的空間

the planes can take off and land without worrying about

利於飛機的起降

creating noise or avoiding tall buildings.

不用擔心製造噪音或是撞到高樓大廈

Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport,

我來給大家舉個例子，在舊金山機場

with 16 inches or more of flooding.

海平面上升了16吋或是有更多的洪水來襲

Imagine the staggering cost of protecting

請各位想像一下為了保護這重要的設施而建造

this vital infrastructure with levees.

堤防在它周遭那成本是多麼駭人

But there might be some changes in store

但除此之外，還有一些你無法想像

that you might not imagine. For example,

的改變在發生。舉例來說，

planes require more runway for takeoff

飛機起飛時需要更多的跑道來起飛

because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift.

因為熱空氣造成空氣密度下降提供較少的爬升空間進而需要更多的跑道空間

San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars

舊金山市花了4000萬美金

to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment,

在重新思考與建設新的下水道系統

as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater,

就如同圖中這個會被海水倒灌而淹沒的排水口一樣

causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria

造成抽水系統的啟動，破壞到可被用來

that are needed to treat the waste.

分解廢料的益菌

So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted

所以我們重新打造這些出水口管

to shut seawater off from entering the system.

讓它們可以被用來阻隔海水倒灌到其它下水道系統

Beyond these technical solutions, our work

除了這些技術上的解決之道外，我們也鼓勵在

at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities

喬治城氣象中心(Georgetown Climate Center)的人員

encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available

去檢閱現有的法律及政策

and to consider how they can accommodate change.

是否能夠加入新的法規及條例

For example, in land use, which areas do you want

舉例來說，在沿岸土地的使用上哪些部份可以

to protect, through adding a seawall, for example,

加蓋防波堤又或者是

alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from,

藉由改建增高原本的建築物或是

to allow the migration of important natural systems,

將原本的建築物撤出重要的自然生態環境

such as wetlands or beaches?

像是濕地跟海灘

Other examples to consider. In the U.K.,

來看看其他的例子。在英國，

the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge.

泰唔士水閘保護倫敦免於暴風潮的迫害

The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network

亞洲氣候[變遷]適應脈絡網（The Asian Cites Climate [Change] Ressilience Network）

is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves.

正在回復那些重要的生態環境像是紅樹雨林

These are not only important ecosystems in their own right,

那些不單單只是對它們自身重要的生態系統

but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities.

但也是可以用做保護島嶼群的緩衝區

New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms,

紐約市是非常容易受暴風侵襲的都市

as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise,

你可以從圖中發現很明顯的當海平面的上升

and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding.

及暴風潮來襲時造成地下鐵淹水

But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates

從地面上，這些突起的地下鐵通風口

for the subway system show that solutions can be both

不只可以達到通風舒緩淹水還非常美觀

事實上呢在紐約，

functional and attractive. In fact, in New York,

San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned

舊金山和倫敦，有些設計師已經想像在未來

ways to better integrate the natural and built environments

將氣候變遷的因子納入設計考量的一部分

with climate change in mind.

將設計跟自然生態做更佳的結合

I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible

我覺得這些有啟發性的範例告訴我們是有能力可以讓這個世界不一樣

when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different.

當我們帶著使命感去面對這些氣候的變遷

But now, a word of caution.

但是現在我想給大家一個警訊

Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts.

關於適應氣候變遷，它實在太重要不能只靠專家來解決問題

Why? Well, there are no experts.

為什麼呢？是的，因為專家根本不存在

We're entering uncharted territory, and yet

我們正在進入一個未知的領域，而目前我們

our expertise and our systems are based on the past.

所謂的專長與系統都是建構在已知得過去

"Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future

"平穩性概念" 可以讓我們根據過往的經驗

based on the past, and plan accordingly,

來預測未來且根據不同的預測結果來計劃準備

and this principle governs much of our engineering,

在使用上我們應用了很多在我們的工程學上

包含了重要的基礎建設、都市水道系統、

our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems,

建築物法規，甚至連用水權及其它已知法律先例

building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents.

But we can simply no longer rely on established norms.

但我們不能夠僅僅依靠著那些已建立的規範

We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations

我們所面臨的情況是當CO2濃度遠遠超出

that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years.

地球幾十萬年前的數值

The larger point I'm trying to make is this.

我在這邊想強調的是

It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities,

我們自己才是最了解自己的人

our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk,

我們知道我們的家園及社區哪裡最脆弱最需要被保護

and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive,

進而對症下藥，不只是求生存而是要鞏固它

and it's up to us to plan and to prepare

事在人為，全看我們要如何計劃跟準備

and to call on our government leaders and require them

並且我們要呼籲政府要求他們

to do the same, even while they address

也要做好萬全的準備，雖然現階段他們

the underlying causes of climate change.

還停留在強調造成氣侯變遷的原因

There are no quick fixes.

解決氣候變遷沒有速解法

There are no one-size-fits-all solutions.

也沒有絕對解

We're all learning by doing.

我們只能在行動中學

But the operative word is doing.

但開始做就是好的開始

Thank you.

謝謝（鼓掌聲）

(Applause)