Vicki Arroyo: Let's prepare for our new climate

87,349 views ・ 2012-10-01

TED


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00:00
Translator: Thu-Huong Ha Reviewer: Morton Bast
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翻译人员: Chunting Guo 校对人员: Yuguo Zhang
00:15
This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans.
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这是我家乡新奥尔兰的天际线,
00:21
It was a great place to grow up,
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这是一个适合长大的地方。
00:23
but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world.
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但这也是这世上最脆弱的地方之一,
00:27
Half the city is already below sea level.
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一半的城市都已经低于海平面了。
00:30
In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans
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在2005年,全世界目睹了 新奥尔兰
00:33
and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina.
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和墨西哥湾岸区被凯瑟琳台风所摧毁,
00:37
One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost.
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一千八百三十四人不幸丧命,近三十万人流离失所。
00:43
These are my mother's, at the top --
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在那上面,是我妈妈的屋子-
00:45
although that's not her car,
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尽管那不是她的车
00:46
it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof --
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那是被洪水带到上面的。
00:49
and that's my sister's, below.
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而下面的,则是我姐姐的
00:51
Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time,
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万幸的是,她们和其他家庭成员都及时逃生了
00:55
but they lost their homes, and as you can see,
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但是正如您所见,她们失去了自己的家园
00:57
just about everything in them.
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和里面几乎一切
01:00
Other parts of the world have been hit by storms
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这个世界其余地方也遭遇暴风雨
01:02
in even more devastating ways.
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甚至是以一种更毁灭性的方式。
01:04
In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath
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在2008年,飓风纳尔吉斯及其余波
01:07
killed 138,000 in Myanmar.
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使138,000缅甸人遇害。
01:11
Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities,
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气候变化正在影响着我们的家园,及社区
01:14
our way of life. We should be preparing
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和我们的生活方式。我们需要准备好
01:16
at every scale and at every opportunity.
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面对任何规模,任何机会。
01:20
This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to
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这个话题使关于准备好,能时刻适应
01:24
the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes
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即将来临的变化和其将为我们的家
01:27
and our collective home, the Earth.
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和我们共同的家园:地球所带来的影响。
01:29
The changes in these times won't affect us all equally.
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我们将面临的改变不会对每个人造成一样的影响。
01:34
There are important distributional consequences,
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这里有很多重大的次生结果
01:36
and they're not what you always might think.
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并且可能与你一直所想的大相径庭。
01:38
In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households
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在新奥尔兰,老年人和需要支撑起整个家庭的主妇们
01:41
were among the most vulnerable.
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是最脆弱的。
01:44
For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations,
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对于那些脆弱,无依无靠的人,
01:46
how do you put a dollar value on losing your country
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你怎能等同一美元和失去你的国家
01:49
where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go?
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那你祖先所居住的地方?而且你又能去哪儿呢?
01:53
And how will they cope in a foreign land?
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再之他们又怎么适应新的地方?
01:55
Will there be tensions over immigration,
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他们是否会因为移民而焦虑,
01:57
or conflicts over competition for limited resources?
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又或为了争夺匮乏的资源而争吵?
02:01
It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur.
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这已曾在乍得共和国和苏尔富尔(位于苏丹,译者注)引起过冲突
02:06
Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future.
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喜欢或不喜欢,准备好了或是没有,这 就是我们的未来。
02:11
Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world.
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是的,有人在寻找新世界的机遇。
02:14
That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom
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那是俄罗斯在海底插上他们的国旗
02:17
to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice.
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去申明矿物所有权,在北极渐渐退去的冰底中
02:21
But while there might be some short-term individual winners,
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但是当这可能会有一些短期获利的同时
02:24
our collective losses will far outweigh them.
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我们累计起的损失会远远超过这些。
02:27
Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle
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不要舍近求远,就像保险行业挣扎着
02:30
to cope with mounting catastrophic losses
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去赔偿灾难的损失
02:32
from extreme weather events.
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来源于恶劣的天气环境。
02:34
The military gets it. They call climate change
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军队懂得了,他们把气候改变称为
02:37
a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security,
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一个威胁倍增器,它们可以威胁稳定和安全,
02:40
while governments around the world are evaluating
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正当全世界的政府正在评估
02:43
how to respond.
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如何去回应的时候。
02:45
So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt?
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所以,我们能做什么?我们如何准备并去适应?
02:49
I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with
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我想分享三个例子,开始于
02:52
adapting to violent storms and floods.
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适应猛烈的暴风雨和洪水。
02:55
In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans,
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在新奥尔南,1-10双拱桥
02:58
with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt
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因其中一个被击垮,已经重建
03:01
21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge.
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高21码去适应更猛烈的浪潮。
03:05
And these raised and energy-efficient homes
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和这些建得更高且高能效的房屋
03:07
were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right
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是“布拉特皮特”和“使它变得更好”(Make it Right)组织建立
03:10
for the hard-hit Ninth Ward.
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为了有九级防御功能
03:13
The devastated church my mom attends has been
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这个被摧毁了的教堂是我母亲过去常去的一个
03:16
not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become
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不仅仅被建得更高了,而且还被建成了
03:19
the first Energy Star church in the country.
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这个国家的第一个一星能源教堂。
03:22
They're selling electricity back to the grid
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它们运输电源到输电网
03:24
thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more.
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基于太阳能面板和反光漆油以及其余东西。
03:27
Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars.
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他们二月份的电费仅仅是48美金。
03:30
Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way,
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现在这些是新奥尔南重建过程中的案例们
03:34
but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind.
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但是如果别人能够提前设想这些措施就更好了。
03:39
For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home
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举个例子,在加尔维斯顿有一个弹性结构房
03:43
that survived Hurricane Ike,
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从飓风中得以幸存
03:45
when others on neighboring lots clearly did not.
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当它周围的建筑都很明显被摧毁殆尽。
03:48
And around the world, satellites and warning systems
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与此同时在世界各地,卫星和报警系统
03:51
are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh.
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正在从像孟加拉国这样的低洼地区拯救生命
03:56
But as important as technology and infrastructure are,
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但是就像技术和基础设施一样重要
03:59
perhaps the human element is even more critical.
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人为因素可能更为重要。
04:02
We need better planning and systems for evacuation.
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我们需要更好的疏散计划和系统。
04:06
We need to better understand how people make decisions
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我们需要透彻地理解人们如何做决定
04:09
in times of crisis, and why.
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当他们面临危机时刻,而且为什么。
04:11
While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation,
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虽然真相是很多凯瑟琳台风遇害者都未能使用交通工具
04:15
others who did refused to leave as the storm approached,
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而有机会使用交通工具的却在暴风雨来临时拒绝离开
04:18
often because available transportation and shelters
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常常是因为可使用的交通工具和避难所
04:22
refused to allow them to take their pets.
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都拒绝允许他们带上自己的宠物
04:25
Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue.
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想象一下无法撤离和营救你自己的宠物。
04:30
Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed
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但幸运的是在2006年,国会通过了
04:32
the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter)
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宠物撤离及运输标准法案(PETS)
04:36
— it spells "PETS" — to change that.
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-添上了“宠物” -从而改变了之前的情形
04:40
Second, preparing for heat and drought.
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第二点,为和高温和干旱做好准备
04:43
Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia
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农民们正面临着旱灾的挑战,从亚洲
04:46
to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma,
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到非洲,从澳洲到俄克拉荷马州
04:49
while heat waves linked with climate change
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与此同时高温热浪和气候变化紧紧相连
04:51
have killed tens of thousands of people
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已经杀死了成千上万的人
04:54
in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010.
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在2003年在西欧,和2010年的俄罗斯。
05:00
In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population,
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在埃塞俄比亚百分之七十,是百分之七-十的人口
05:05
depends on rainfall for its livelihood.
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依靠降雨来维持他们的生活。
05:07
Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation,
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牛津饥荒救济委员会和瑞士再保险公司与洛克菲勒基金会携手
05:11
are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces
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共同帮助像他一样农民们建造山坡梯田
05:15
and find other ways to conserve water,
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和找寻其余的方法保存用水
05:17
but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come.
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但当旱灾来临的时候他们也提供保险赔偿
05:21
The stability this provides is giving the farmers
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这让那些农民坚定了
05:24
the confidence to invest.
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投资的信心。
05:25
It's giving them access to affordable credit.
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向他们提供可负担的贷款。
05:28
It's allowing them to become more productive so that
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这使他们变得更加多产
05:30
they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance.
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随着时间过去有能力自给自足,从而不需要赞助。
05:34
It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated
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这是一个良性循环,而且是可以在
05:36
throughout the developing world.
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发展中国家广泛使用的。
05:39
After a lethal 1995 heat wave
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在致命的1995热浪中
05:42
turned refrigerator trucks from the popular
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让冷藏车从芝加哥节日流行口味
05:44
Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues,
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变成了停尸房。
05:47
Chicago became a recognized leader,
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芝加哥变成了广为人知的领导者,
05:50
tamping down on the urban heat island impact
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迈出了城市热岛效应
05:52
through opening cooling centers,
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借助于开放避暑中心
05:54
outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees,
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到到脆弱的郊区,种植树木
05:58
creating cool white or vegetated green roofs.
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建立凉爽的或者植物覆盖的屋顶。
06:01
This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof,
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这座市政厅的绿色屋顶,
06:04
which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface.
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较为内部温度,表面温度高77华氏度
06:08
Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation
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华盛顿在去年实际上带领了这个国家
06:12
in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part
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建立绿色屋顶,而他们也通过
06:15
thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags.
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5分钱的塑料袋税收来为这项工程提供资金。
06:19
They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs
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他们同时与家庭和建筑所有者
06:21
with home and building owners.
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共同分担建设绿色屋顶的费用。
06:23
The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact
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这种屋顶不仅能调节城市热岛效应
06:26
but they save energy, and therefore money,
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同时还能节约能源,金钱
06:28
the emissions that cause climate change,
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以及减少温室气体
06:30
and they also reduce stormwater runoff.
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同时也能起到排水效果。
06:33
So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins.
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因此有些解决酷暑的手段能够带来双赢
06:37
Third, adapting to rising seas.
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第三点,适应海平面上升
06:41
Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture,
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海平面上升威胁沿海地区生态,农业系统
06:45
even major cities. This is what one to two meters
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甚至主要城市。这是一 两米左右
06:48
of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta.
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海平面上升在湄公河看起来的样子
06:51
That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown.
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那里是越南一半粮食的产地。
06:54
Infrastructure is going to be affected.
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基础设施将会被影响。
06:57
Airports around the world are located on the coast.
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通往全世界的机场就建立在这里
06:59
It makes sense, right? There's open space,
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这很合理,对吧?因为这里是一片空地
07:01
the planes can take off and land without worrying about
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飞机可以起飞降落而不用担心
07:04
creating noise or avoiding tall buildings.
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产生噪音或去躲避高楼大厦。
07:06
Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport,
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这里只是一个例子,旧金山机场,
07:09
with 16 inches or more of flooding.
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受16英尺左右的洪水泛滥袭击。
07:12
Imagine the staggering cost of protecting
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想像一下用于保护
07:15
this vital infrastructure with levees.
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重要基础设施的堤坝的费用。
07:18
But there might be some changes in store
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但是与此同时可能有
07:20
that you might not imagine. For example,
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你不能预测的变化。比如,
07:23
planes require more runway for takeoff
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飞机需要更多的跑道去起飞,
07:25
because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift.
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因为高温,不稠密的空气,不能提供足够的升力。
07:29
San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars
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旧金山还花费四千万美元
07:32
to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment,
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去反思和重建下水道处理系统。
07:36
as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater,
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因为像这样的排水渠口也可能被海水淹没,
07:39
causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria
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从而危害植物,滋生细菌。
07:42
that are needed to treat the waste.
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需要建立设施来处理这些浪费。
07:44
So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted
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因此需要更新这些排水管道
07:46
to shut seawater off from entering the system.
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防止海水进入排水系统。
07:49
Beyond these technical solutions, our work
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除了这些技术层面的措施意外,我们位于
07:52
at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities
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乔治城气候中心和社区共同工作
07:54
encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available
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鼓励他们参考现存的法律和政策
07:57
and to consider how they can accommodate change.
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并且考虑如何才能适应变化。
08:01
For example, in land use, which areas do you want
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譬如,用地,哪片地区你想要
08:04
to protect, through adding a seawall, for example,
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通过用建设防波堤的方式去保护,再比方
08:07
alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from,
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通过升高建筑,或向后搬迁
08:11
to allow the migration of important natural systems,
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去允许重要的自然系统迁徙
08:13
such as wetlands or beaches?
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比方说湿地或者沙滩?
08:16
Other examples to consider. In the U.K.,
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这里同时有其余的例子,在英国,
08:18
the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge.
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泰晤士河保护伦敦免遭于风暴潮袭击。
08:22
The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network
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亚洲城市气候变迁韧性组织
08:24
is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves.
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正在修复类似于红树林的重要的生态系统。
08:28
These are not only important ecosystems in their own right,
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这些生态系统不仅仅是本身是重要的
08:31
but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities.
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而且同时充当了缓冲区的作用来保护内陆地区。
08:35
New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms,
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纽约在暴风雨面前显得十分脆弱,
08:39
as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise,
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就想你在这块指示牌上看到的一样,纽约同时也经不住海平面上升
08:42
and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding.
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和暴风雨,正如你从这幅纽约地铁涨水图中看见的一样。
08:46
But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates
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但是当我们返回到地面,这些上升的地铁通风格栏
08:49
for the subway system show that solutions can be both
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系统提醒我们措施可以同时
是有功能效应且引人注意的。事实上,纽约
08:52
functional and attractive. In fact, in New York,
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08:54
San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned
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旧金山和伦敦,设计师们已经设想出了
08:57
ways to better integrate the natural and built environments
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能更加契合自然并且
09:00
with climate change in mind.
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兼顾应对自然变化的建设方法。
09:03
I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible
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我认为这些设想都是十分打动人心的例子
09:06
when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different.
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,让我们认为自己有能力去改变这个世界。
09:09
But now, a word of caution.
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但是现在,请谨记着
09:12
Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts.
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对这些专家而言适应也是十分重要的。
09:15
Why? Well, there are no experts.
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为什么?因为就没有所谓的专家。
09:18
We're entering uncharted territory, and yet
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我们正在进入一个全新的领域,而目前为止
09:21
our expertise and our systems are based on the past.
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我们的专长和系统都仅仅是建立于过去的。
09:25
"Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future
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“平稳”是我们将使用于未来的准则
09:28
based on the past, and plan accordingly,
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基于经验,同时随机应变,
09:31
and this principle governs much of our engineering,
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与此同时,这也是一个领导我们当今工程
当今设计核心基础设施,城市排水系统,
09:34
our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems,
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建筑规范,甚至用水权以及其余判例的词。
09:37
building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents.
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09:41
But we can simply no longer rely on established norms.
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但是我们在也不能仅仅依靠建立规范了。
09:44
We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations
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我们已经超如了地球上已经恪守了成千上万年
09:48
that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years.
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的二氧化碳浓度限制。
09:53
The larger point I'm trying to make is this.
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我在这里想说的是
09:56
It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities,
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这是我们的责任去照顾我们的家园和社会
10:00
our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk,
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我们的脆弱且易暴露于危险之中的家园。
10:02
and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive,
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不仅仅是去找寻一个生存的办法,而是一个繁荣兴旺的办法。
10:06
and it's up to us to plan and to prepare
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而且这是我们的责任去规划和准备
10:09
and to call on our government leaders and require them
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和提醒我们的政府领导并且要求他们
10:11
to do the same, even while they address
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去做同样的事,即便与此同时他们正在
10:13
the underlying causes of climate change.
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强调潜伏的气候变化原因。
10:17
There are no quick fixes.
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这没有权宜之计。
10:18
There are no one-size-fits-all solutions.
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这里没有完全之策。
10:21
We're all learning by doing.
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我们只有从实践中学习。
10:23
But the operative word is doing.
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关键词是做去,去实践。
10:28
Thank you.
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谢谢。(掌声)
10:29
(Applause)
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