Charles Robertson: Africa's next boom

Prevodilac: Tamara Djordjevic Lektor: Mile Živković

Africa is booming.

Afrika je u usponu.

Per capita incomes since the year 2000

Prihod po glavi stanovnika se udvostručio

have doubled,

od 2000.

and this boom is impacting on everyone.

i ovaj uspon utiče na sve.

Life expectancy has increased by one year

Životni vek se produžio za po godinu dana

every three years for the last decade.

svake treće godine tokom ove poslednje decenije.

That means if an African child is born today,

To znači da dete rođeno u Africi danas

rather than three days ago,

u odnosu na dete rođeno pre 3 dana

they will get an extra day of life

dobija jedan dodatni dan

at the end of their lifespan.

u svom životnom veku.

It's that quick.

To se odvija neverovatnom brzinom.

And HIV infection rates are down 27 percent:

I HIV infekcije su se smanjile za 27%.

600,000 less people a year are getting HIV

Svake godine se zarazi 600 000

in sub-Saharan Africa.

manje ljudi ovim virusom u podsaharskoj Africi.

The battle against malaria is being won,

Pobeda protiv malarije je na vidiku,

with deaths from malaria down 27 percent,

sa 27% pada stope smrtnosti,

according to the latest World Bank data.

prema poslednjim podacima Svetske banke.

And malaria nets actually are playing a role in that.

Mreže protiv malarije igraju bitnu ulogu u tome.

This shouldn't surprise us,

Ovo ne bi trebalo da nas iznenadi,

because actually, everybody grows.

jer, u stvari, svi rastu.

If you go back to Imperial Rome

Ukoliko se vratimo u stari Rim

in the Year 1 A.D.,

u prvoj godini Nove ere,

there was admittedly about 1,800 years

mora se priznati da za oko 1 800 godina od tada

where there wasn't an awful lot of growth.

nije bilo previše rasta.

But then the people that the Romans

Ali, moji preci, koje bi Rimljani

would have called Scottish barbarians, my ancestors,

nazvali škotskim varvarima,

were actually part of the Industrial Revolution,

su u stvari bili deo industrijske revolucije.

and in the 19th century, growth began to accelerate,

I u 19. veku, razvoj je počeo da se ubrzava

and you saw that get quicker and quicker,

i videli ste da je bio sve brži i brži

and it's been impacting everyone.

i da je uticao na sve.

It doesn't matter if this is the jungles of Singapore

Nije bitno da li su to džungle u Singapuru

or the tundra of northern Finland.

ili tundre u severnoj Finskoj.

Everybody gets involved. It's just a matter of when

Svi su uključeni. Samo je pitanje vremena

the inevitable happens.

kada će se neizbežno desiti.

Among the reasons I think it's happening right now

Jedan od razloga što se to dešava baš sada

is the quality of the leadership across Africa.

je kvalitet vladavine širom Afrike.

I think most of us would agree that in the 1990s,

Mislim da bi se većina sa mnom složila da je tokom '90-ih

the greatest politician in the world was African,

najgenijalniji političar na svetu bio Afrikanac.

but I'm meeting brilliant people

Ali ja srećem brilijantne ljude

across the continent the entire time,

uzduž i popreko čitavog kontinenta sve vreme,

and they're doing the reforms

i oni rade na reformama

which have transformed the economic situation

koje su transformisale ekonomsku situaciju

for their countries.

u njihovim zemljama.

And the West is engaging with that.

Zapadni svet je uključen u to.

The West has given debt forgiveness programs

Zapad je pružio programe oproštaja duga

which have halved sub-Saharan debt

koji su prepolovili podsaharski dug

from about 70 percent of GDP down to about 40.

od oko 70% nacionalnih BDP-a na oko 40%.

At the same time, our debt level's gone up to 120

U isto vreme, nivo našeg duga se popeo na 120%

and we're all feeling slightly miserable

i svi mi se osećamo pomalo bedno

as a result.

kao rezultat toga.

Politics gets weaker when debt is high.

Politika države oslabi kada je dug visok.

When public sector debt is low,

Kada je dug javnog sektora nizak,

governments don't have to choose

vlade ne moraju da biraju

between investing in education and health

između ulaganja u obrazovanje i zdravstvo

and paying interest on that debt you owe.

i plaćanja kamate na državne dugove.

And it's not just the public sector which is looking so good.

Nije samo javni sektor koji je dobrostojeći,

The private sector as well.

već i privatni sektor.

Again, in the West, we have private sector debt

Da napomenem, na Zapadu, mi imamo dug privatnog sektora

of 200 percent of GDP in Spain,

na nivou od 200% BDP-a u Španiji,

the U.K., and the U.S.

Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu i Sjedinjenim državama.

That's an awful lot of debt.

To su jako velika dugovanja.

Africa, many African countries,

Afrika, mnoge afričke zemlje,

are sitting at 10 to 30 percent of GDP.

imaju 10% do 30% duga od ukupnog BDP-a.

If there's any continent that can do what China has done --

Ukoliko postoji neki kontinent koji može da učini ono sto je Kina učinila -

China's at about 130 percent of GDP on that chart --

Kina je na 130% BDP-a na ovom grafikonu -

if anyone can do what China has done

ako neko može da učini ono što je Kina učinila

in the last 30 years,

tokom poslednjih 30 godina

it'll be Africa in the next 30.

to bi bila Afrika u narednih 30.

So they've got great government finances, great private sector debt.

Oni imaju fantastične državne budžete i jako dobar dug privatnog sektora.

Does anyone recognize this? In fact, they do.

Da li neko prepoznaje ovo? Prepoznaje.

Foreign direct investment

Direktne strane investicije

has poured into Africa in the last 15 years.

se slivaju u Afriku tokom poslednjih 15 godina.

Back in the '70s,

Tokom '70-ih godina, nikome nije

no one touched the continent with a barge pole.

padalo na pamet da se dotakne kontinenta.

And this investment is actually Western-led.

A ove investicije su predvođene Zapadom.

We hear a lot about China,

Mi čujemo dosta o Kini,

and they do lend a lot of money,

i oni pozajmljuju dosta novca,

but 60 percent of the FDI in the last couple of years

ali 60% stranih investicija poslednjih nekoliko godina

has come from Europe, America, Australia, Canada.

je došlo iz Evrope, Amerike, Australije, Kanade.

Ten percent's come from India.

10% je prispelo iz Indije.

And they're investing in energy.

I oni ulažu u energiju.

Africa produces 10 million barrels a day of oil now.

Afrika prozvodi 10 miliona barela nafte dnevno.

It's the same as Saudi Arabia or Russia.

To je isto kao i Saudijska Arabija ili Rusija.

And they're investing in telecoms,

I oni ulažu u telekomunikacije,

shopping malls.

tržne centre.

And this very encouraging story, I think,

Ova jako ohrabrujuća priča je

is partly demographic-led.

delimično predvođena demografijom.

And it's not just about African demographics.

I nije samo reč o afričkoj demografiji.

I'm showing you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds

Pogledajte broj mladih, raspon godina 15 do 24,

in various parts of the world,

u različitim delovima sveta,

and the blue line is the one I want you to focus on for a second.

i želim da se fokusirate na plavu liniju za trenutak.

Ten years ago, say you're Foxconn

Pre 10 godina, recimo vi ste Fokskon kompanija

setting up an iPhone factory, by chance.

koja postavlja jednu fabriku ajfona, na primer.

You might choose China,

Vi možda izaberete Kinu,

which is the bulk of that East Asian blue line,

koja predstavlja najveći procenat istočno-azijske plave linije,

where there's 200 million young people,

gde postoji 200 miliona mladih ljudi,

and every year until 2010 that's getting bigger.

i svake godine do 2010., taj broj je bivao veći.

Which means you're going to have new guys

To znači da ćete imati mlade koji će

knocking on the door saying, "Give us a job,"

kucati na vaša vrata i govoriti: "Dajte nam posao," i:

and, "I don't need a big pay rise, just please give me a job."

"Meni ne treba velika povišica, samo mi dajte posao".

Now, that's completely changed now.

Sada se to potpuno promenilo.

This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent

Ove decenije, videćemo pad od 20-30%

fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China.

u broju mladih od 15-24 godina u Kini.

So where do you set up your new factory?

Onda gde da postavite vašu novu fabriku?

You look at South Asia, and people are.

Razmatrate južnu Aziju, kao i drugi ljudi.

They're looking at Pakistan and Bangladesh,

Oni razmatraju Pakistan i Bangladeš,

and they're also looking at Africa.

i isto tako Afriku.

And they're looking at Africa

I oni razmatraju Afriku

because that yellow line is showing you

jer žuta linija vam pokazuje

that the number of young Africans

da će broj mladih Afrikanaca

is going to continue to get bigger

nastaviti da raste,

decade after decade after decade out to 2050.

deceniju za decenijom sve do 2050.

Now, there's a problem with lots of young people

Postoji problem kada mnogo mladih

coming into any market,

stigne na tržište rada u isto vreme,

particularly when they're young men.

naročito kada su to mladići.

A bit dangerous, sometimes.

Ponekad malo i opasno.

I think one of the crucial factors

Po mom mišljenju, jedan od presudnih faktora

is how educated is that demographic?

je nivo obrazovanja te demografske grupacije.

If you look at the red line here,

Ako pogledate ovu crvenu liniju

what you're going to see is that in 1975,

videćete da je 1975.

just nine percent of kids

samo 9% mladih

were in secondary school education

pohađalo srednju školu

in sub-Saharan Africa.

u podsaharskoj Africi.

Would you set up a factory

Da li biste izgradili fabriku

in sub-Sahara in the mid-1970s?

u podsaharskoj oblasti sredinom 1970-ih?

Nobody else did.

Niko nije.

They chose instead Turkey and Mexico

Oni su izabrali Tursku i Meksiko

to set up the textiles factories,

da izgrade fabrike tekstilnih proizvoda,

because their education levels

zato što je nivo obrazovanja u tim zemljama

were 25 to 30 percent.

bio 25-30% populacije.

Today, sub-Sahara is at the levels

Danas, podsaharaska Afrika je na tom nivou

that Turkey and Mexico were at in 1975.

gde su Turska i Meksiko bili 1975.

They will get the textiles jobs

Mladi u Africi će dobiti poslove u tekstilnim fabrikama

that will take people out of rural poverty

koji će izbaviti ljude iz ruralnog siromaštva

and put them on the road to industrialization and wealth.

i usmeriti ih na put ka industrijalizaciji i bogatstvu.

So what's Africa looking like today?

Kako izgleda Afrika danas?

This is how I look at Africa.

Ja ovako gledam na Afriku.

It's a bit odd, because I'm an economist.

Malo je čudno, jer sam ja ekonomista.

Each little box is about a billion dollars,

Svaka mala kutija vredi milijardu dolara,

and you see that I pay an awful lot of attention

i vidite da ja usmeravam mnogo pažnje

to Nigeria sitting there in the middle.

na Nigeriju koja je u sredini.

South Africa is playing a role.

Juznoafrička republika igra značajnu ulogu.

But when I'm thinking about the future,

Ali kad razmišljam o budućnosti,

I'm actually most interested

ja sam najviše zainteresovan

in Central, Western and Southern Africa.

za centralni, zapadni i južni deo Afrike.

If I look at Africa by population,

Ako gledam na Afriku iz ugla broja stanovnika,

East Africa stands out

istočna Afrika se ističe

as so much potential.

sa velikim potencijalom.

And I'm showing you something else with these maps.

Ja vam pokazujem nešto drugo na ovim mapama.

I'm showing you democracy versus autocracy.

Pokazujem vam demokratiju protiv autokratije.

Fragile democracies is the beige color.

Krhke demokratije su u bež boji.

Strong democracies are the orange color.

Jake demokratije su u narandžastoj boji.

And what you'll see here is that most Africans

Vi vidite ovde da većina Afrikanaca

are now living in democracies.

danas živi u demokratijama.

Why does that matter?

Zašto je to bitno?

Because what people want

Zato što ono što ljudi žele

is what politicians try,

je to što političari pokušavaju.

they don't always succeed, but they try and deliver.

Oni ne uspevaju uvek, ali pokušaju i isporuče.

And what you've got is a reinforcing positive circle going on.

Ono što se dešava je da se pozitivni krug ojačava.

In Ghana in the elections, in December 2012,

Decembra 2012. na izborima u Gani,

the battle between the two candidates

borba između dva kandidata

was over education.

se vodila na polju obrazovanja.

One guy offered free secondary school education

Jedan kandidat je nudio besplatno srednjoškolsko

to all, not just 30 percent.

obrazovanje za sve, ne samo za 30%.

The other guy had to say,

Drugi kandidat je rekao:

I'm going to build 50 new schools.

"Ja ću da izgradim 50 novih škola".

He won by a margin.

Pobedio je sa malom razlikom.

So democracy is encouraging governments

Demokratija podrazumeva ohrabrivanje vlada

to invest in education.

da ulažu u obrazovanje.

Education is helping growth and investment,

Obrazovanje pomaže privrednom rastu i investicijama

and that's giving budget revenues,

i to povećava budžetske prihode,

which is giving governments more money,

samim tim vlade raspolažu sa više para,

which is helping growth through education.

i samim tim potpomažu rast kroz obrazovanje.

It's a positive, virtuous circle.

To je pozitivni, začarani krug.

But I get asked this question,

Ali stalno me pitaju,

and this particular question makes me quite sad:

i ovo specifično pitanje me čini izuzetno tužnim:

It's, "But what about corruption?

"A šta sa korupcijom?

How can you invest in Africa when there's corruption?"

Kako da investiramo u Afriku pored korupcije?"

And what makes me sad about it

I ono sto me čini tužnim u vezi sa tim

is that this graph here is showing you

je to što vam ovaj grafikon pokazuje -

that the biggest correlation with corruption is wealth.

da bogatstvo i korupcija imaju najveću korelaciju.

When you're poor, corruption is not your biggest priority.

Kad si siromašan, korupcija ti nije najveći prioritet.

And the countries on the right hand side,

Zemlje sa desne strane,

you'll see the per capita GDP,

videćete BDP po glavi stanovnika,

basically every country

u suštini svaka zemlja

with a per capita GDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars,

sa BDP-om po glavi stanovnika, recimo, manjim od 5000 američkih dolara,

has got a corruption score

ima nivo korupcije od otprilike

of roughly, what's that, about three?

šta je to, tri?

Three out of 10. That's not good.

Tri na skali od deset. To nije dobro.

Every poor country is corrupt.

Svaka siromašna zemlja je korumpirana.

Every rich country is relatively uncorrupt.

Svaka bogata zemlja je relativno nekorumpirana.

How do you get from poverty and corruption

Kako da se pređe od siromaštva i korupcije

to wealth and less corruption?

na bogatstvo i manje korupcije?

You see the middle class grow.

Videćete jačanje srednje klase.

And the way to do that is to invest,

I način da se to desi su investicije,

not to say I'm not investing in that continent

a ne reći da ja ne investiram u taj kontinent

because there's too much corruption.

zato što je korupcija suviše rasprostranjena.

Now, I don't want to be an apologist for corruption.

Ja nemam nameru da stanem u odbranu korupcije.

I've been arrested because I refused to pay a bribe --

Bio sam uhapšen zato što sam odbio da dam mito -

not in Africa, actually.

zapravo ne u Africi.

But what I'm saying here is that

Ali ono što podvlačim ovde je da

we can make a difference

mi možemo da napravimo razliku

and we can do that by investing.

i to možemo da uradimo kroz investicije.

Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret.

Sada ću da vam otkrijem jednu malu ne baš toliku tajnu.

Economists aren't great at forecasting.

Ekonomisti nisu baš tako dobri u prognozama.

Because the question really is, what happens next?

Zato je je u stvari pitanje, šta se dešava sledeće?

And if you go back to the year 2000,

I ako se vratite u 2000.,

what you'll find is The Economist

naći ćete veoma slavnu naslovnu stranu

had a very famous cover, "The Hopeless Continent,"

magazina "Ekonomist", "Beznadežni kontinent."

and what they'd done is they'd looked at growth

Oni su gledali na rast

in Africa over the previous 10 years -- two percent --

u Africi tokom prethodnih10 godina, koji je 2%,

and they said,

i pitali su se,

what's going to happen in the next 10 years?

šta će se desiti u narednih deset godina?

They assumed two percent,

"Ekonomist" je pretpostavio 2% rasta,

and that made it a pretty hopeless story,

i tako je nastala beznadežna priča,

because population growth was two and a half.

zato što je rast stanovništva bio na 2,5%.

People got poorer in Africa in the 1990s.

Ljudi u Africi su osiromašili tokom '90-ih.

Now 2012, The Economist has a new cover,

U 2012. "Ekonomist" ima novu naslovnu stranu,

and what does that new cover show?

i šta ta nova naslovna strana pokazuje?

That new cover shows, well, Africa rising,

Pokazuje da se Afrika uzdiže,

because the growth over the last 10 years

zato što je rast u poslednjih 10 godina

has been about five and a half percent.

bio negde oko 5,5%.

I would like to see if you can all now become economists,

Želeo bih da vidim ako svi vi sada možete da postanete ekonomisti.

because if growth for the last 10 years

Ako je rast za poslednjih 10 godina

has been five and a half percent,

bio na 5,5%,

what do you think the IMF is forecasting

šta mislite da MMF predviđa

for the next five years of growth in Africa?

za narednih pet godina rasta u Africi?

Very good. I think you're secretly saying

Vrlo dobro. Mislim da sami sebi

to your head, probably five and a half percent.

priznajete, verovatno 5,5%.

You're all economists, and I think,

Vi ste svi ekonomisti, i ja mislim

like most economists, wrong.

kao većina ekonomista, niste u pravu.

No offense.

Bez uvrede.

What I like to do is try and find the countries

Ono što želim da uradim je da pokušam da nađem zemlje

that are doing exactly what Africa has already done,

koje rade isto što je Afrika već uradila,

and it means that jump from 1,800 years of nothing

i to znači da preskoče 1800 godina ničega

to whoof, suddenly shooting through the roof.

do odjednom neviđenog uspeha.

India is one of those examples.

Indija je jedan od tih primera.

This is Indian growth from 1960 to 2010.

Ovo je indijski rast od 1960 do 2010.

Ignore the scale on the bottom for a second.

Zanemarite skalu na dnu za sekund.

Actually, for the first 20 years,

U stvari, za prvih 20 godina,

the '60s and '70s, India didn't really grow.

'60-ih i '70-ih, Indija nije u stvari ostvarivala rast.

It grew at two percent

Rast je bio 2%

when population growth was about two and a half.

dok je rast stanovništva bio na 2,5%.

If that's familiar, that's exactly what happened

Ukoliko vam je to poznato, to je ono što se desilo

in sub-Sahara in the '80s and the '90s.

u podsaharskoj Africi '80-ih i '90-ih godina.

And then something happened in 1980.

I onda se nešto desilo 1980.

Boom! India began to explode.

Bum! Indija je eksplodirala.

It wasn't a "Hindu rate of growth,"

To nije bila "Hindu stopa rasta",

"democracies can't grow." Actually India could.

"demokratije ne mogu da se razvijaju". Zapravo, Indija je mogla.

And if I lay sub-Saharan growth

I ako izložim podsaharski rast

on top of the Indian growth story,

preko priče o indijskom razvoju,

it's remarkably similar.

neverovatno je sličan.

Twenty years of not much growth

Dvadeset godina ne baš prevelikog rasta

and a trend line which is actually telling you

i trend koji vam zapravo govori

that sub-Saharan African growth is

da je podsaharski rast

slightly better than India.

malo bolji od indijskog.

And if I then lay developing Asia on top of this,

I ako onda izložim azijski rast preko ovog,

I'm saying India is 20 years ahead of Africa,

ja kažem da je Indija 20 godina ispred Afrike.

I'm saying developing Asia is 10 years ahead of India,

kažem da je Azija u razvoju 10 godina ispred Indije.

I can draw out some forecasts

Mogu da dođem do nekih zaključaka

for the next 30 to 40 years

za narednih 30 do 40 godina

which I think are better

koji mislim da su bolji

than the ones where you're looking backwards.

od onih gde se gleda unazad.

And that tells me this:

I to mi govori sledeće:

that Africa is going to go

da će Afrika narasti

from a $2 trillion economy today

od ekonomije od 2 biliona danas

to a $29 trillion economy by 2050.

do ekonomije od 29 biliona do 2050.

Now that's bigger than Europe and America

To je veća ekonomija od Evrope i Amerike

put together in today's money.

zajedno u današnjim novcima.

Life expectancy is going to go up by 13 years.

Životni vek će porasti za 13 godina.

The population's going to double

Stanovništvo će se udvostručiti

from one billion to two billion,

od jedne milijarde na dve,

so household incomes are going to go up sevenfold

tako da će prihodi domaćinstava da se usedmostruče

in the next 35 years.

u narednih 35 godina.

And when I present this in Africa --

I kad ovo prezentujem u Africi -

Nairobi, Lagos, Accra -- I get one question.

Najrobi, Lagos, Akra - postave mi jedno pitanje:

"Charlie, why are you so pessimistic?"

"Čarli, zašto si tako pesimističan?"

And you know what?

I znate šta?

Actually, I think they've got a point.

U stvari, mislim da su u pravu.

Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned,

Da li ja zaista kažem da ništa ne može da se nauči,

yes from the positives in Asia and India,

od svega pozitivnog u Aziji i Indiji,

but also the negatives?

ali isto tako svega negativnog?

Perhaps Africa can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made.

Možda Afrika može da izbegne neke od grešaka koje su već načinjene.

Surely, the technologies that we're talking about here

Svakako, tehnologije o kojima pričamo ovde

this last week,

tokom protekle nedelje,

surely some of these can perhaps

svakako neke od njih verovatno mogu da

help Africa grow even faster?

pomognu Africi da raste i brže?

And I think here we can play a role.

I mislim da mi možemo da odigramo ulogu ovde.

Because technology does let you help.

Zato što vam tehnologija zaista dozvoljava da pomognete.

You can go and download

Možete ići i skinuti s interneta

some of the great African literature

neke od najvećih dela

from the Internet now.

afričke književnosti.

No, not right now, just 30 seconds.

Ne, baš sada, samo za 30 sekundi.

You can go and buy some of the great tunes.

Možete da kupite neku fantastičnu kompoziciju.

My iPod's full of them.

Moj ajpod je ispunjen njima.

Buy African products.

Kupite afričke proizvode.

Go on holiday and see for yourself

Idite na odmor i upoznajte se sami

the change that's happening.

sa promenama koje se dešavaju.

Invest.

Investirajte.

Perhaps hire people, give them the skills

Možda da zaposlite ljude, omogućite im da nauče veštine

that they can take back to Africa,

koje će oni poneti sa sobom nazad u Afriku,

and their companies will grow an awful lot faster

i njihove kompanije će rasti mnogo brže

than most of ours here in the West.

nego većina naših na Zapadu.

And then you and I can help make sure

I onda vi i ja možemo da učinimo

that for Africa, the 21st century is their century.

da 21. vek bude vek Afrike.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)