Charles Robertson: Africa's next boom

101,278 views ・ 2013-10-22

TED


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譯者: Ron Chao 審譯者: Yi-Ting Chung
00:12
Africa is booming.
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非洲正欣欣向榮
00:14
Per capita incomes since the year 2000
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人均所得自2000年以來
00:16
have doubled,
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已倍增
00:18
and this boom is impacting on everyone.
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這樣的繁榮影響所有人民
00:21
Life expectancy has increased by one year
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過去十年以來,平均壽命
00:24
every three years for the last decade.
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每三年增加一歲
00:27
That means if an African child is born today,
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就是說今天誕生的非洲嬰兒
00:30
rather than three days ago,
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比三天前出生的
00:32
they will get an extra day of life
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會多增加一天
00:34
at the end of their lifespan.
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的壽命預期
00:36
It's that quick.
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變化就是那麼快
00:38
And HIV infection rates are down 27 percent:
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愛滋病毒的感染率下降了27%
00:42
600,000 less people a year are getting HIV
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每年感染的人數減少60萬
00:46
in sub-Saharan Africa.
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這是漠南非洲的數據
00:49
The battle against malaria is being won,
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對抗瘧疾也漸入佳境
00:52
with deaths from malaria down 27 percent,
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死亡率降低27%
00:55
according to the latest World Bank data.
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這是世界銀行的數據
00:56
And malaria nets actually are playing a role in that.
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抗瘧疾蚊帳其實是功臣之一
00:59
This shouldn't surprise us,
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非洲的進步不足為奇
01:02
because actually, everybody grows.
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因為事實上成長屢見不鮮
01:04
If you go back to Imperial Rome
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回顧羅馬帝國時期
01:06
in the Year 1 A.D.,
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從西元一年開始
01:09
there was admittedly about 1,800 years
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一般公認大約有一千八百年
01:11
where there wasn't an awful lot of growth.
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不見巨幅的成長
01:13
But then the people that the Romans
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然後我的祖先蘇格蘭人
01:15
would have called Scottish barbarians, my ancestors,
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那個會被羅馬人視為野蠻的族群
01:19
were actually part of the Industrial Revolution,
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事實上卻參與了工業革命
01:21
and in the 19th century, growth began to accelerate,
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19世紀,成長開始加速
01:24
and you saw that get quicker and quicker,
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速度節節上升
01:27
and it's been impacting everyone.
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並且影響無遠弗屆
01:30
It doesn't matter if this is the jungles of Singapore
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不論是雨林區的新加坡
01:32
or the tundra of northern Finland.
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還是凍原區的北國芬蘭
01:34
Everybody gets involved. It's just a matter of when
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都參與其中,這只是遲早的問題
01:37
the inevitable happens.
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是必然的結果
01:40
Among the reasons I think it's happening right now
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非洲現在成功的原因之一
01:42
is the quality of the leadership across Africa.
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我認為是非洲領袖的才能
01:46
I think most of us would agree that in the 1990s,
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我相信多數人會同意,1990年代
01:49
the greatest politician in the world was African,
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全球最棒的政治家在非洲
01:53
but I'm meeting brilliant people
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但是我遇到的俊彥
01:55
across the continent the entire time,
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非洲一直都不缺
01:57
and they're doing the reforms
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他們進行改革
01:59
which have transformed the economic situation
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扭轉了經濟情勢
02:01
for their countries.
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改變了自己的國家
02:03
And the West is engaging with that.
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西方國家也有參與
02:05
The West has given debt forgiveness programs
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提出債務減免計畫
02:07
which have halved sub-Saharan debt
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漠南非洲的負債因而減半
02:10
from about 70 percent of GDP down to about 40.
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從GDP的七成降至大約四成
02:14
At the same time, our debt level's gone up to 120
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同時西方的負債升至GDP的120%
02:16
and we're all feeling slightly miserable
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我們的心情
02:18
as a result.
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都因此略為低落
02:20
Politics gets weaker when debt is high.
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負債高,會削弱政治的力道
02:23
When public sector debt is low,
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當公債的負擔低
02:25
governments don't have to choose
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政府就毋須選擇
02:26
between investing in education and health
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投資於教育和健康
02:29
and paying interest on that debt you owe.
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還是繳付欠款的利息
02:31
And it's not just the public sector which is looking so good.
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不只是公共部門看好
02:34
The private sector as well.
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私營企業也不遜色
02:36
Again, in the West, we have private sector debt
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西方的私營企業負債
02:39
of 200 percent of GDP in Spain,
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是GDP的兩倍,這是西班牙
02:42
the U.K., and the U.S.
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英國、美國的數字
02:44
That's an awful lot of debt.
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負債相當高
02:46
Africa, many African countries,
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許多非洲國家的負債
02:49
are sitting at 10 to 30 percent of GDP.
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則是GDP的一成至三成
02:52
If there's any continent that can do what China has done --
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如果有個洲能做到中國已做到的——
02:56
China's at about 130 percent of GDP on that chart --
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中國的負債是GDP的130%——
02:59
if anyone can do what China has done
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如果有區域能達到中國
03:01
in the last 30 years,
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過去30年來的成績
03:03
it'll be Africa in the next 30.
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應該是非洲未來的30年
03:06
So they've got great government finances, great private sector debt.
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既然財政、企業負債狀況都極佳
03:09
Does anyone recognize this? In fact, they do.
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有人慧眼識英雄嗎?確實有
03:11
Foreign direct investment
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外商直接投資
03:13
has poured into Africa in the last 15 years.
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過去15年來已大量湧入
03:17
Back in the '70s,
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回顧1970年代
03:19
no one touched the continent with a barge pole.
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人人避非洲唯恐不及
03:22
And this investment is actually Western-led.
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現在的投資其實是西方主導
03:24
We hear a lot about China,
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中國時常上新聞
03:26
and they do lend a lot of money,
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也確實提供非洲大量的貸款
03:28
but 60 percent of the FDI in the last couple of years
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但是過去幾年,外商直接投資有六成
03:31
has come from Europe, America, Australia, Canada.
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來自歐洲、美國、澳洲、加拿大
03:34
Ten percent's come from India.
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還有一成來自印度
03:36
And they're investing in energy.
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他們正在投資能源
03:39
Africa produces 10 million barrels a day of oil now.
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非洲現在日產一千萬桶石油
03:42
It's the same as Saudi Arabia or Russia.
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不下於沙烏地阿拉伯或俄羅斯
03:45
And they're investing in telecoms,
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他們也在投資電信業
03:47
shopping malls.
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大型購物中心
03:49
And this very encouraging story, I think,
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我認為這個振奮人心的故事
03:53
is partly demographic-led.
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部分是由於人口因素
03:54
And it's not just about African demographics.
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而且不僅僅是非洲的人口
03:58
I'm showing you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds
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圖上顯示的是15至24歲人口
04:01
in various parts of the world,
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在世界各區域的分佈統計
04:03
and the blue line is the one I want you to focus on for a second.
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請注意藍色的線
04:06
Ten years ago, say you're Foxconn
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十年前,如果你是富士康
04:09
setting up an iPhone factory, by chance.
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假定要設立iPhone工廠
04:12
You might choose China,
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中國可能會入選
04:13
which is the bulk of that East Asian blue line,
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中國佔東亞藍線人口的大宗
04:15
where there's 200 million young people,
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有兩億的年輕人
04:17
and every year until 2010 that's getting bigger.
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而且在2010年以前,人口年年上升
04:22
Which means you're going to have new guys
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意味著新的年輕人
04:24
knocking on the door saying, "Give us a job,"
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會找上門來乞求工作
04:27
and, "I don't need a big pay rise, just please give me a job."
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會說「加薪不重要,給我工作就好」
04:30
Now, that's completely changed now.
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現在情況則完全不同
04:33
This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent
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2010年以後的十年
04:36
fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China.
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中國15至24歲人口將減少兩到三成
04:40
So where do you set up your new factory?
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所以你該在哪裡設新工廠?
04:43
You look at South Asia, and people are.
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大家開始注視南亞
04:45
They're looking at Pakistan and Bangladesh,
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轉向巴基斯坦和孟加拉
04:47
and they're also looking at Africa.
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也在轉向非洲
04:49
And they're looking at Africa
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他們注視非洲
04:51
because that yellow line is showing you
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因為圖上的黃線顯示
04:54
that the number of young Africans
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非洲的青年人口
04:55
is going to continue to get bigger
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將持續增長
04:57
decade after decade after decade out to 2050.
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年復一年直到2050年
05:02
Now, there's a problem with lots of young people
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不過大量年輕人進入任何市場
05:05
coming into any market,
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都會產生問題
05:07
particularly when they're young men.
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尤其是年輕男性
05:09
A bit dangerous, sometimes.
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有時候會有點危險
05:11
I think one of the crucial factors
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我認為要素之一
05:13
is how educated is that demographic?
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是年輕人的教育程度
05:16
If you look at the red line here,
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請觀察紅線
05:18
what you're going to see is that in 1975,
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可以看到1975年
05:20
just nine percent of kids
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青少年只有9%
05:22
were in secondary school education
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接受中學教育
05:24
in sub-Saharan Africa.
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這是漠南非洲的數據
05:27
Would you set up a factory
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如果想設立工廠
05:29
in sub-Sahara in the mid-1970s?
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1970年代中期,會選漠南吗?
05:31
Nobody else did.
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沒有人這麼做
05:32
They chose instead Turkey and Mexico
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他們選的是土耳其和墨西哥
05:35
to set up the textiles factories,
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在那裡設立紡織廠
05:37
because their education levels
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因為中等學歷的青年
05:39
were 25 to 30 percent.
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佔人口的25%到30%
05:42
Today, sub-Sahara is at the levels
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如今漠南人口的教育程度
05:45
that Turkey and Mexico were at in 1975.
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已達土耳其和墨西哥1975年的水準
05:49
They will get the textiles jobs
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漠南非洲會迎來紡織工作
05:52
that will take people out of rural poverty
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鄉下人會因而脫貧
05:55
and put them on the road to industrialization and wealth.
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並且邁向工業化和富裕之路
05:59
So what's Africa looking like today?
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所以非洲現況如何?
06:02
This is how I look at Africa.
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這是我的觀點
06:04
It's a bit odd, because I'm an economist.
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看起來有點怪,因為我是經濟學家
06:06
Each little box is about a billion dollars,
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每個小方格代表大約十億美元
06:08
and you see that I pay an awful lot of attention
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可以看得出來,我極為看重
06:10
to Nigeria sitting there in the middle.
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居中的奈及利亞
06:12
South Africa is playing a role.
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南非現在有一定分量
06:14
But when I'm thinking about the future,
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但是放眼未來
06:16
I'm actually most interested
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其實我最感興趣的是
06:19
in Central, Western and Southern Africa.
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非洲中部、西部、和南部
06:21
If I look at Africa by population,
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如果從人口的角度
06:24
East Africa stands out
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東非鶴立雞群
06:25
as so much potential.
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非常有潛力
06:27
And I'm showing you something else with these maps.
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這張圖還顯示了其他資訊
06:30
I'm showing you democracy versus autocracy.
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顯示出民主和專制
06:33
Fragile democracies is the beige color.
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米黃色代表脆弱的民主
06:36
Strong democracies are the orange color.
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橘色代表穩定的民主
06:39
And what you'll see here is that most Africans
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看得出來,大多數非洲人
06:42
are now living in democracies.
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生活在民主社會
06:46
Why does that matter?
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這有什麼重要?
06:48
Because what people want
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因為民之所欲
06:50
is what politicians try,
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政客必從之
06:52
they don't always succeed, but they try and deliver.
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他們未必成功,但是會嘗試、會履行
06:55
And what you've got is a reinforcing positive circle going on.
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結果會形成良性循環
06:58
In Ghana in the elections, in December 2012,
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2012年12月在迦納的選舉
07:01
the battle between the two candidates
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兩位候選人對決
07:03
was over education.
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議題是教育
07:06
One guy offered free secondary school education
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一位候選人承諾中學免費
07:08
to all, not just 30 percent.
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全民免費,不只是適齡人口的三成
07:11
The other guy had to say,
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對手只得表示
07:12
I'm going to build 50 new schools.
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將會興建50所新學校
07:14
He won by a margin.
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他後來險勝
07:17
So democracy is encouraging governments
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所以民主制度鼓勵政府
07:20
to invest in education.
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投資於教育
07:22
Education is helping growth and investment,
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教育有助於成長和投資
07:24
and that's giving budget revenues,
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從而提高稅收
07:25
which is giving governments more money,
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政府因此有更多經費
07:27
which is helping growth through education.
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這就是借助教育促進成長
07:30
It's a positive, virtuous circle.
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這就是良性循環
07:33
But I get asked this question,
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但是有人會問一個問題
07:35
and this particular question makes me quite sad:
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這個問題讓我非常難過
07:38
It's, "But what about corruption?
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他們問「腐敗怎麼辦?
07:41
How can you invest in Africa when there's corruption?"
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非洲腐敗,我們怎麼投資?」
07:45
And what makes me sad about it
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讓我難過的
07:47
is that this graph here is showing you
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是這個圖所顯示的
07:49
that the biggest correlation with corruption is wealth.
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腐敗最大的相關因素是富裕
07:53
When you're poor, corruption is not your biggest priority.
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貧窮的地方,不會急於解決腐敗
07:57
And the countries on the right hand side,
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右邊的國家
07:59
you'll see the per capita GDP,
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請注意其人均GDP
08:01
basically every country
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幾乎每個國家
08:03
with a per capita GDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars,
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如果人均GDP低於五千美元
08:06
has got a corruption score
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其腐敗分數
08:09
of roughly, what's that, about three?
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大概是,是三吧?
08:12
Three out of 10. That's not good.
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十分只得三分。成績不佳
08:14
Every poor country is corrupt.
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貧窮國家都是腐敗的
08:16
Every rich country is relatively uncorrupt.
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富裕國家相對比較不腐敗
08:20
How do you get from poverty and corruption
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怎樣才能從貧窮和腐敗
08:24
to wealth and less corruption?
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變成富裕和較不腐敗?
08:27
You see the middle class grow.
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擴大中產階級是答案
08:29
And the way to do that is to invest,
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擴大之道則是投資
08:32
not to say I'm not investing in that continent
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不要拒絕投資非洲
08:36
because there's too much corruption.
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只是因為腐敗猖獗
08:38
Now, I don't want to be an apologist for corruption.
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我倒不是要替腐敗辯護
08:41
I've been arrested because I refused to pay a bribe --
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我曾因為拒絕行賄而被捕
08:44
not in Africa, actually.
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那次其實不是在非洲
08:46
But what I'm saying here is that
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但是我要講的是
08:47
we can make a difference
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我們可以發揮影響力
08:49
and we can do that by investing.
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可以用投資達到目的
08:52
Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret.
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我要透露一個不算秘密的小秘密
08:56
Economists aren't great at forecasting.
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經濟學家的預測不是很準
08:58
Because the question really is, what happens next?
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因為牽涉到預知未來
09:01
And if you go back to the year 2000,
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如果回顧2000年
09:03
what you'll find is The Economist
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當年的《經濟學人》雜誌
09:05
had a very famous cover, "The Hopeless Continent,"
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有個著名的封面「無望之洲」
09:08
and what they'd done is they'd looked at growth
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他們檢視了
09:10
in Africa over the previous 10 years -- two percent --
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非洲前十年的成長紀錄:2%
09:14
and they said,
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他們自問
09:16
what's going to happen in the next 10 years?
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非洲下個十年的展望如何?
09:19
They assumed two percent,
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他們假設還是2%
09:21
and that made it a pretty hopeless story,
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前途因此看來無望
09:23
because population growth was two and a half.
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因為人口的增長是2.5%
09:26
People got poorer in Africa in the 1990s.
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1990年代非洲人變得更窮
09:29
Now 2012, The Economist has a new cover,
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到了2012年,《經濟學人》有了新封面
09:33
and what does that new cover show?
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什麼樣的新封面?
09:34
That new cover shows, well, Africa rising,
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新封面顯示了非洲興起
09:37
because the growth over the last 10 years
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因為過去十年的成長率
09:39
has been about five and a half percent.
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大約是5.5%
09:42
I would like to see if you can all now become economists,
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看看你們現在能否變成經濟學家
09:45
because if growth for the last 10 years
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如果過去十年的成長率
09:48
has been five and a half percent,
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是5.5%
09:50
what do you think the IMF is forecasting
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你們猜國際貨幣基金組織預測
09:52
for the next five years of growth in Africa?
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非洲下個五年的成長率為何?
09:55
Very good. I think you're secretly saying
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很好。我想你們在默想
09:57
to your head, probably five and a half percent.
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大概也是5.5%
10:00
You're all economists, and I think,
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你們都成了經濟學家,而我認為
10:02
like most economists, wrong.
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像多數經濟學家一樣,你們錯了
10:04
No offense.
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請別介意
10:06
What I like to do is try and find the countries
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我的目的是要找出一些國家
10:09
that are doing exactly what Africa has already done,
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他們也走過非洲走過的路
10:13
and it means that jump from 1,800 years of nothing
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就是歷經了1800年的沉寂
10:17
to whoof, suddenly shooting through the roof.
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突然一飛沖天
10:20
India is one of those examples.
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印度就是這種國家
10:22
This is Indian growth from 1960 to 2010.
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這是印度1960年到2010年的成長圖
10:26
Ignore the scale on the bottom for a second.
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請暫時忽略下方的標示
10:29
Actually, for the first 20 years,
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其實開始的20年
10:32
the '60s and '70s, India didn't really grow.
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1960-70年代,印度成長平平
10:35
It grew at two percent
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只成長了2%
10:37
when population growth was about two and a half.
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其人口增長率則是2.5%
10:40
If that's familiar, that's exactly what happened
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如果似曾相識,因為這完全像
10:42
in sub-Sahara in the '80s and the '90s.
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非洲漠南1980-90年代
10:44
And then something happened in 1980.
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然後1980年出現變化
10:46
Boom! India began to explode.
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轟隆一聲,印度爆發了
10:48
It wasn't a "Hindu rate of growth,"
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這不是所謂的「印度式成長」
10:51
"democracies can't grow." Actually India could.
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「民主國家無法成長」。印度真的成長了
10:54
And if I lay sub-Saharan growth
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如果我把漠南的成長圖
10:57
on top of the Indian growth story,
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重疊在印度的成長圖上面
10:59
it's remarkably similar.
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二者非常相似
11:01
Twenty years of not much growth
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都有二十年的滯怠期
11:04
and a trend line which is actually telling you
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其實趨勢線顯示
11:05
that sub-Saharan African growth is
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漠南非洲的成長率
11:07
slightly better than India.
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會略優於印度
11:10
And if I then lay developing Asia on top of this,
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如果再加上亞洲發展中國家
11:13
I'm saying India is 20 years ahead of Africa,
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看得出來印度比非洲早發展20年
11:16
I'm saying developing Asia is 10 years ahead of India,
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亞洲發展中國家又比印度早十年
11:20
I can draw out some forecasts
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我能以此做出預測
11:22
for the next 30 to 40 years
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未來30到40年的預測
11:25
which I think are better
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我認為準確度會超過
11:27
than the ones where you're looking backwards.
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只根據非洲過去紀錄的預測
11:30
And that tells me this:
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我的預測顯示
11:32
that Africa is going to go
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非洲將從
11:34
from a $2 trillion economy today
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現在兩兆美元的經濟體
11:37
to a $29 trillion economy by 2050.
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躍升為2050年29兆美元的經濟體
11:41
Now that's bigger than Europe and America
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這個數字大於歐洲和美國
11:43
put together in today's money.
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現值的總和
11:46
Life expectancy is going to go up by 13 years.
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平均壽命將增加13歲
11:50
The population's going to double
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人口將倍增
11:52
from one billion to two billion,
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從十億變成20億
11:54
so household incomes are going to go up sevenfold
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家戶所得將成長七倍
11:57
in the next 35 years.
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再過35年這些均可實現
12:00
And when I present this in Africa --
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我在非洲提出這些數據時
12:03
Nairobi, Lagos, Accra -- I get one question.
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在奈洛比、拉哥斯、阿克拉,我聽到一種質疑
12:07
"Charlie, why are you so pessimistic?"
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「查理,你的預測為什麼那麼悲觀?」
12:12
And you know what?
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老實說
12:13
Actually, I think they've got a point.
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我還真覺得他們有點道理
12:16
Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned,
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我難道真的認定非洲
12:18
yes from the positives in Asia and India,
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不能汲取亞洲和印度的優點
12:22
but also the negatives?
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以及失敗的經驗?
12:23
Perhaps Africa can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made.
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或許非洲能避免重蹈一些覆轍
12:26
Surely, the technologies that we're talking about here
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當然,在這裡討論過的科技
12:29
this last week,
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上周討論過的科技
12:31
surely some of these can perhaps
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其中總有一些
12:32
help Africa grow even faster?
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或許能幫助非洲成長更快?
12:35
And I think here we can play a role.
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我相信在場的都可以參與
12:38
Because technology does let you help.
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因為可以藉由科技幫上忙
12:40
You can go and download
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你現在就可以下載
12:43
some of the great African literature
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一些非洲文學巨著
12:45
from the Internet now.
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這些都在網上
12:46
No, not right now, just 30 seconds.
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別現在下載,我再30秒就會講完
12:49
You can go and buy some of the great tunes.
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你可以買些很棒的非洲音樂
12:51
My iPod's full of them.
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我的iPod裡面有很多
12:53
Buy African products.
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購買非洲產品
12:55
Go on holiday and see for yourself
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去非洲度假,親眼觀察
12:57
the change that's happening.
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日新月異的非洲
12:58
Invest.
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投資
12:59
Perhaps hire people, give them the skills
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或許聘用非洲人,傳授技能
13:02
that they can take back to Africa,
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他們學成後返回非洲
13:04
and their companies will grow an awful lot faster
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其公司的成長速度會遠高於
13:06
than most of ours here in the West.
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大多數西方公司
13:09
And then you and I can help make sure
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然後你我可以幫忙成全一件事:
13:13
that for Africa, the 21st century is their century.
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讓21世紀成為非洲的世紀
13:17
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝
13:19
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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