Charles Robertson: Africa's next boom

101,437 views ใƒป 2013-10-22

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ืื ื ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ืœืžื˜ื” ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ.

ืžืชืจื’ื: Boaz Hovav ืžื‘ืงืจ: Ido Dekkers
00:12
Africa is booming.
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ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืžืฉื’ืฉื’ืช.
00:14
Per capita incomes since the year 2000
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ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื” ืœื ืคืฉ ืžืื– ืฉื ืช 2000
00:16
have doubled,
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ื”ื•ื›ืคืœื”,
00:18
and this boom is impacting on everyone.
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ื•ื”ืฉื’ืฉื•ื’ ื”ื–ื” ืžืฉืคื™ืข ืขืœ ื›ื•ืœื.
00:21
Life expectancy has increased by one year
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ืชื•ื—ืœืช ื”ื—ื™ื™ื ืขืœืชื” ื‘ืฉื ื” ืื—ืช
00:24
every three years for the last decade.
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ื‘ื›ืœ 3 ืฉื ื™ื ื‘ืขืฉื•ืจ ื”ืื—ืจื•ืŸ.
00:27
That means if an African child is born today,
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ื–ื” ืื•ืžืจ ืฉืื ื™ืœื“ ืืคืจื™ืงืื™ ื ื•ืœื“ ื”ื™ื•ื,
00:30
rather than three days ago,
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ื‘ืžืงื•ื ืœืคื ื™ 3 ื™ืžื™ื,
00:32
they will get an extra day of life
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ื”ื•ื ื™ื–ื›ื” ืœื™ื•ื-ื—ื™ื™ื ื ื•ืกืฃ,
00:34
at the end of their lifespan.
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ื‘ืกื•ืฃ ื—ื™ื™ื•.
00:36
It's that quick.
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ื–ื” ืขื“ ื›ื“ื™ ื›ืš ืžื”ื™ืจ.
00:38
And HIV infection rates are down 27 percent:
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ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ื”ื“ื‘ืงืช ื”ืื™ื™ื“ืก ื™ืจื“ื• ื‘-27%:
00:42
600,000 less people a year are getting HIV
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ืคื—ื•ืช 600,000 ืืœืฃ ื‘ื ื™ ืื“ื ื ื“ื‘ืงื™ื ื‘ืื™ื™ื“ืก ื›ืœ ืฉื ื” ื›ื™ื•ื
00:46
in sub-Saharan Africa.
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ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืฉืœ ืชืช ื”ืกื”ืจื”.
00:49
The battle against malaria is being won,
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ื‘ืžืœื—ืžื” ื ื’ื“ ื”ืžืœืจื™ื” ื™ืฉ ื ืฆื—ื•ื ื•ืช,
00:52
with deaths from malaria down 27 percent,
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ื•ื”ืชืžื•ืชื” ืžืžืœืจื™ื” ื™ืจื“ื” ื‘-27%,
00:55
according to the latest World Bank data.
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ืœืคื ื™ ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ื‘ื ืง ื”ืขื•ืœืžื™.
00:56
And malaria nets actually are playing a role in that.
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ื•ืœืจืฉืชื•ืช ื ื’ื“ ื™ืชื•ืฉื™ื ื™ืฉ ื‘ื”ื—ืœื˜ ื—ืœืง ื‘ื›ืš.
00:59
This shouldn't surprise us,
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ื–ื” ืœื ืฆืจื™ืš ืœื”ืคืชื™ืข ืื•ืชื ื•.
01:02
because actually, everybody grows.
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ื›ื™ ืœืžืขืฉื”, ื›ื•ืœื ืžืชืคืชื—ื™ื.
01:04
If you go back to Imperial Rome
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ืื ืชื—ื–ืจื• ืœืจื•ืžื ื”ืงื™ืกืจื™ืช
01:06
in the Year 1 A.D.,
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ื‘ืฉื ืช 1 ืœืกืคื™ืจื”,
01:09
there was admittedly about 1,800 years
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ื”ื™ื• ืœืœื ืกืคืง ื›-1,800 ืฉื ื™ื
01:11
where there wasn't an awful lot of growth.
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ืฉื‘ื”ืŸ ืœื ื”ื™ืชื” ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ืจื‘ื”.
01:13
But then the people that the Romans
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ืื‘ืœ ืื– ื”ืขืžื™ื, ืฉื”ืจื•ืžืื™ื ื›ื™ื ื•
01:15
would have called Scottish barbarians, my ancestors,
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ื”ื‘ืจื‘ืจื™ื ื”ืกืงื•ื˜ื™ื™ื, ืื‘ื•ืชื™,
01:19
were actually part of the Industrial Revolution,
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ืœืงื—ื• ืœืžืขืฉื” ื—ืœืง ื‘ืžื”ืคื›ื” ื”ืชืขืฉื™ื™ืชื™ืช,
01:21
and in the 19th century, growth began to accelerate,
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ื•ื‘ืžืื” ื”-19, ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื”ื—ืœื” ืœื”ืื™ืฅ,
01:24
and you saw that get quicker and quicker,
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ื•ืจืื™ืชื ืฉื”ื™ื ื ืขืฉื™ืช ืžื”ื™ืจื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ,
01:27
and it's been impacting everyone.
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ื•ื”ื™ื ื”ืฉืคื™ืขื” ืขืœ ื›ื•ืœื.
01:30
It doesn't matter if this is the jungles of Singapore
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ืื ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื’'ื•ื ื’ืœื™ื ืฉืœ ืกื™ื ื’ืคื•ืจ
01:32
or the tundra of northern Finland.
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ืื• ื‘ื˜ื•ื ื“ืจื” ืฉืœ ืฆืคื•ืŸ ืคื™ื ืœื ื“,
01:34
Everybody gets involved. It's just a matter of when
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ื›ื•ืœื ื”ื™ื• ืžืขื•ืจื‘ื™ื ื‘ื›ืš. ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืจืง ืžืชื™
01:37
the inevitable happens.
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ื™ืงืจื” ื”ื‘ืœืชื™-ื ืžื ืข.
01:40
Among the reasons I think it's happening right now
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ืื—ืช ื”ืกื™ื‘ื•ืช ืฉืœื“ืขืชื™ ื–ื” ืงื•ืจื” ืžืžืฉ ืขื›ืฉื™ื•
01:42
is the quality of the leadership across Africa.
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ื”ื™ื ืื™ื›ื•ืช ื”ื”ื ื”ื’ื” ื‘ื›ืœ ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
01:46
I think most of us would agree that in the 1990s,
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืจื•ื‘ื ื• ื ืกื›ื™ื ืฉื‘ืฉื ื•ืช ื”-90,
01:49
the greatest politician in the world was African,
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ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงืื™ ื”ื›ื™ ื’ื“ื•ืœ ื‘ืขื•ืœื ื”ื™ื” ืืคืจื™ืงืื™,
01:53
but I'm meeting brilliant people
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ืื‘ืœ ืื ื™ ื–ื•ื›ื” ืœืคื’ื•ืฉ ืื ืฉื™ื ืžื‘ืจื™ืงื™ื
01:55
across the continent the entire time,
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ื‘ื›ืœ ื”ื™ื‘ืฉืช, ื›ืœ ื”ื–ืžืŸ,
01:57
and they're doing the reforms
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ื•ื”ื ืขื•ืฉื™ื ืืช ื”ืจืคื•ืจืžื•ืช
01:59
which have transformed the economic situation
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ืฉืฉื™ื ื• ืืช ื”ืžืฆื‘ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™
02:01
for their countries.
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ืฉืœ ืืจืฆื•ืชื™ื”ื.
02:03
And the West is engaging with that.
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ื•ื”ืžืขืจื‘ ืžืขื•ืจื‘ ื’ื ื”ื•ื ื‘ื›ืš.
02:05
The West has given debt forgiveness programs
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ื”ืžืขืจื‘ ืขืจืš ืชื›ื ื™ื•ืช ืœืฉืžื™ื˜ืช ื—ื•ื‘ื•ืช
02:07
which have halved sub-Saharan debt
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ืฉื”ืคื—ื™ืชื• ื‘ื—ืฆื™ ืืช ื”ื—ื•ื‘ื•ืช ืฉืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืชืช ื”ืกื”ืจื”
02:10
from about 70 percent of GDP down to about 40.
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ืžื›-70% ื”ืชื•ืฆืจ ื”ืœืื•ืžื™ ื”ื’ื•ืœืžื™ ืœื›-40%.
02:14
At the same time, our debt level's gone up to 120
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ื‘ื”-ื‘ืขืช, ืจืžืช ื”ื—ื•ื‘ ืฉืœื ื• ืขืœืชื” ืœ-120%
02:16
and we're all feeling slightly miserable
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ื•ื›ื•ืœื ื• ืžืจื’ื™ืฉื™ื ืงืฆืช ืžืกื›ื ื™ื
02:18
as a result.
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ื›ืชื•ืฆืื” ืžื›ืš.
02:20
Politics gets weaker when debt is high.
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ื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงื” ื ื—ืœืฉืช ื›ืฉื”ื—ื•ื‘ ื’ื‘ื•ื”.
02:23
When public sector debt is low,
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ื›ืฉื”ื—ื•ื‘ ืฉืœ ื”ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจื™ ื ืžื•ืš,
02:25
governments don't have to choose
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ืžืžืฉืœื•ืช ืœื ื ืืœืฆื•ืช ืœื‘ื—ื•ืจ
02:26
between investing in education and health
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ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ืฉืงืขื” ื‘ื—ื™ื ื•ืš ื•ื‘ื‘ืจื™ืื•ืช
02:29
and paying interest on that debt you owe.
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ืœื‘ื™ืŸ ืชืฉืœื•ื ืฉืœ ืจื™ื‘ื™ืช ืขืœ ื”ื—ื•ื‘.
02:31
And it's not just the public sector which is looking so good.
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ื•ื”ืฉื™ืคื•ืจ ื ื™ื›ืจ ืœื ืจืง ื‘ืกืงื˜ื•ืจ ื”ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืจ.
02:34
The private sector as well.
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ื’ื ื”ืกืงื˜ื•ืจ ื”ืคืจื˜ื™ ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืžืฉืชืคืจ.
02:36
Again, in the West, we have private sector debt
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ืฉื•ื‘, ื‘ืžืขืจื‘, ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ื›ื™ ื”ื—ื•ื‘ ืฉืœ ื”ืžื’ื–ืจ ื”ืคืจื˜ื™
02:39
of 200 percent of GDP in Spain,
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ื›ืคื•ืœ ื‘ื’ื•ื“ืœื• (200%) ืžื”ืชื•ืฆืจ ื”ืžืงื•ืžื™ ื”ื’ื•ืœืžื™ ื‘ืกืคืจื“,
02:42
the U.K., and the U.S.
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ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ื” ื•ื‘ืืจื”"ื‘.
02:44
That's an awful lot of debt.
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ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื—ื•ื‘ ืขืฆื•ื.
02:46
Africa, many African countries,
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ื•ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื”, ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืืคืจื™ืงืื™ื•ืช ืจื‘ื•ืช,
02:49
are sitting at 10 to 30 percent of GDP.
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ื”ื—ื•ื‘ ื ืข ื‘ื™ืŸ 10% ืœ- 30% ืžื”ืชื•ืฆืจ ื”ืžืงื•ืžื™ ื”ื’ื•ืœืžื™.
02:52
If there's any continent that can do what China has done --
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ืื ื™ืฉ ื›ื™ื•ื ื™ื‘ืฉืช ืฉืžืกื•ื’ืœืช ืœืขืฉื•ืช ืžื” ืฉืขืฉื• ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื --
02:56
China's at about 130 percent of GDP on that chart --
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ื”ื˜ื‘ืœื” ืžืจืื” ื›ื™ ืœืกื™ื ื™ื ื—ื•ื‘ ืฉืœ ื›- 130% ืžื”ืชื•ืฆืจ ื”ืžืงื•ืžื™ ื”ื’ื•ืœืžื™ --
02:59
if anyone can do what China has done
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ืื ื™ืฉ ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืฉื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœืขืฉื• ืžื” ืฉืขืฉื• ื”ืกื™ื ื™ื
03:01
in the last 30 years,
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ื‘- 30 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช,
03:03
it'll be Africa in the next 30.
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ื–ื•ื”ื™ ื™ื‘ืฉืช ืืคืจื™ืงื”, ื‘- 30 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื•ืช.
03:06
So they've got great government finances, great private sector debt.
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ื›ืš ืฉื™ืฉ ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” ื ื™ื”ื•ืœ ืžืžืฉืœืชื™ ื ื›ื•ืŸ ืฉืœ ืขื ื™ื™ื ื™ ื”ื›ืกืคื™ื, ื•ื—ื•ื‘ ื ืžื•ืš ืฉืœ ื”ืกืงื˜ื•ืจ ื”ืคืจื˜ื™.
03:09
Does anyone recognize this? In fact, they do.
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ื”ืื ืžื™ืฉื”ื• ืžืชื—ืฉื‘ ื‘ื›ืš? ืœืžืขืŸ ื”ืืžืช, ื›ืŸ.
03:11
Foreign direct investment
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ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช ื–ืจื•ืช
03:13
has poured into Africa in the last 15 years.
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ื–ื•ืจืžื•ืช ืœืืคืจื™ืงื” ื›ื‘ืจ 15 ืฉื ื”.
03:17
Back in the '70s,
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ื‘ืฉื ื•ืช ื”-70,
03:19
no one touched the continent with a barge pole.
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ืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืœื ื”ื™ื” ืžื•ื›ืŸ ืœื”ืชืงืจื‘ ืœื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
03:22
And this investment is actually Western-led.
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ื•ืจื•ื‘ ื”ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช ืžื’ื™ืขื•ืช ืžืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืžืขืจื‘.
03:24
We hear a lot about China,
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ืื ื—ื ื• ืฉื•ืžืขื™ื ื”ืžื•ืŸ ืขืœ ืกื™ืŸ,
03:26
and they do lend a lot of money,
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ื•ื”ื ืื›ืŸ ืžืœื•ื•ื™ื ื”ืจื‘ื” ื›ืกืฃ,
03:28
but 60 percent of the FDI in the last couple of years
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ืื‘ืœ 60% ืžื”ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช ื”ื–ืจื•ืช ื‘ืฉื ืชื™ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช
03:31
has come from Europe, America, Australia, Canada.
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ื”ื’ื™ืขื• ืžืื™ืจื•ืคื”, ืืžืจื™ืงื”, ืื•ืกื˜ืจืœื™ื” ื•ืงื ื“ื”.
03:34
Ten percent's come from India.
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10% ื”ื’ื™ืขื• ืžื”ื•ื“ื•.
03:36
And they're investing in energy.
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ื•ื”ื ืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ื ื‘ื™ืฆื•ืจ ืื ืจื’ื™ื”.
03:39
Africa produces 10 million barrels a day of oil now.
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ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืžื™ื™ืฆืจืช 10 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื—ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื ืคื˜ ื‘ื›ืœ ื™ื•ื.
03:42
It's the same as Saudi Arabia or Russia.
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ืžืžืฉ ื›ืžื• ืขืจื‘ ื”ืกืขื•ื“ื™ืช ื•ืจื•ืกื™ื”.
03:45
And they're investing in telecoms,
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ื•ื”ื ืžืฉืงื™ืขื™ื ื‘ืชืงืฉื•ืจืช,
03:47
shopping malls.
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ื‘ืžืจื›ื–ื™ ืงื ื™ื•ืช.
03:49
And this very encouraging story, I think,
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ื•ื”ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ื”ืžืขื•ื“ื“ ื”ื–ื”, ืœื“ืขืชื™,
03:53
is partly demographic-led.
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ืžื•ืฉืคืข ืžืื“ ืžื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ื”ื“ืžื•ื’ืจืคื™ื™ื.
03:54
And it's not just about African demographics.
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ื•ืœื ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ืจืง ื‘ื“ืžื•ื’ืจืคื™ื” ืฉืœ ืืคืจื™ืงื”,
03:58
I'm showing you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds
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ื”ื’ืจืฃ ืžืฆื™ื’ ืืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ื‘ื™ืŸ ื”ื’ื™ืœืื™ื 15 ืœ- 24
04:01
in various parts of the world,
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ื‘ืื–ื•ืจื™ื ืฉื•ื ื™ื ื‘ืขื•ืœื,
04:03
and the blue line is the one I want you to focus on for a second.
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ื•ืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืฉืชืชืžืงื“ื• ื‘ืงื• ื”ื›ื—ื•ืœ ืœืจื’ืข.
04:06
Ten years ago, say you're Foxconn
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ืœืคื ื™ 10 ืฉื ื™ื, ื—ื‘ืจื” ื›ืžื• ืคื•ืงืกืงื•ืŸ (Foxconn)
04:09
setting up an iPhone factory, by chance.
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ืฉื”ืงื™ืžื” ืžืคืขืœ ืœื™ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ื™ืคื•ื ื™ื, ื‘ืžืงืจื”.
04:12
You might choose China,
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ื ื˜ืชื” ืœื‘ื—ื•ืจ ื‘ืกื™ืŸ,
04:13
which is the bulk of that East Asian blue line,
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ืฉืžื”ื•ื•ื” ืืช ืจื•ื‘ื• ืฉืœ ื”ืงื• ื”ื›ื—ื•ืœ ืฉืœ ืžื–ืจื— ืืกื™ื”,
04:15
where there's 200 million young people,
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ื”ื™ื• ืฉื 200 ืžื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื,
04:17
and every year until 2010 that's getting bigger.
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ื•ืžืกืคืจ ื”ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื ื”ืžืฉื™ืš ืœืขืœื•ืช ืขื“ ืฉื ืช 2010.
04:22
Which means you're going to have new guys
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ื”ืžืฉืžืขื•ืช ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืฉื™ื•ืชืจ ื•ื™ื•ืชืจ ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื
04:24
knocking on the door saying, "Give us a job,"
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ื™ื“ืคืงื• ืขืœ ื“ืœืชื•ืช ื”ืžืคืขืœ ื•ื™ื—ืคืฉื• ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”
04:27
and, "I don't need a big pay rise, just please give me a job."
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ื•ื™ืกืชืคืงื• ื‘ืฉื›ืจ ื ืžื•ืš ืชืžื•ืจืช ืื•ืชื” ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”.
04:30
Now, that's completely changed now.
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ื”ื™ื•ื, ื”ืžื’ืžื” ื”ืชื”ืคื›ื”,
04:33
This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent
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ื‘ืขืฉื•ืจ ื”ื ื•ื›ื—ื™ ื ืจืื” ื™ืจื™ื“ื” ืฉืœ 20% ืขื“ 30%
04:36
fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China.
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ื‘ืžืกืคืจื ืฉืœ ื‘ื ื™ ื”- 15 ืขื“ 24 ื‘ืกื™ืŸ.
04:40
So where do you set up your new factory?
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ืื– ืื™ืคื” ื›ื“ืื™ ืœื”ืงื™ื ืžืคืขืœ ื—ื“ืฉ?
04:43
You look at South Asia, and people are.
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ืืคืฉืจ ืœืฉืงื•ืœ ืืช ื“ืจื•ื ืืกื™ื”, ื•ื”ืจื‘ื” ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืขื•ืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช.
04:45
They're looking at Pakistan and Bangladesh,
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ื”ืŸ ื‘ื•ื“ืงื•ืช ืืช ืคืงื™ืกื˜ืŸ ื•ื‘ื ื’ืœื“ืฉ,
04:47
and they're also looking at Africa.
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ื•ื”ื ื‘ื•ื“ืงื•ืช ื’ื ืืช ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
04:49
And they're looking at Africa
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ื•ื”ืŸ ื‘ื•ื“ืงื•ืช ืืช ืืคืจื™ืงื”
04:51
because that yellow line is showing you
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ื›ื™ ื”ืงื• ื”ืฆื”ื•ื‘ ืžืจืื”
04:54
that the number of young Africans
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ืฉืžืกืคืจ ื”ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื”
04:55
is going to continue to get bigger
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ืขื•ืžื“ ืœื”ืžืฉื™ืš ื•ืœืขืœื•ืช
04:57
decade after decade after decade out to 2050.
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ื‘ืžืฉืš ืขืฉื•ืจื™ื ืœืคื—ื•ืช ืขื“ 2050.
05:02
Now, there's a problem with lots of young people
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ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื™ืฉ ื‘ืขื™ื” ืขื ื›ืžื•ืช ื’ื“ื•ืœื” ืฉืœ ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื
05:05
coming into any market,
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ืฉื ื›ื ืกื™ื ืœืฉื•ืง ื”ืขื‘ื•ื“ื”,
05:07
particularly when they're young men.
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ื‘ืขื™ืงืจ ื›ืฉืžื“ื•ื‘ืจ ื‘ื’ื‘ืจื™ื ืฆืขื™ืจื™ื.
05:09
A bit dangerous, sometimes.
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ืœืขืชื™ื ื–ื” ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื”ื™ื•ืช ืžืกื•ื›ืŸ.
05:11
I think one of the crucial factors
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ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืฉืื—ืช ื”ืฉืืœื•ืช ื”ืžืจื›ื–ื™ื•ืช
05:13
is how educated is that demographic?
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ื”ื™ื ืžื” ืžื™ื“ืช ื”ื”ืฉื›ืœื” ืฉืœ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ื”ืžื“ื•ื‘ืจืช?
05:16
If you look at the red line here,
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ืื ืชื‘ื™ื˜ื• ื‘ืงื• ื”ืื“ื•ื ื›ืืŸ,
05:18
what you're going to see is that in 1975,
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ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉืขื“ ืฉื ืช 1975,
05:20
just nine percent of kids
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ืจืง 9% ืžื”ื™ืœื“ื™ื
05:22
were in secondary school education
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ืงื™ื‘ืœื• ื”ืฉื›ืœื” ื‘ืจืžื” ืชื™ื›ื•ื ื™ืช
05:24
in sub-Saharan Africa.
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ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืชืช ื”ืกื”ืจื”.
05:27
Would you set up a factory
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ื”ืื ื”ื™ื™ืชื ืžืงื™ืžื™ื ืžืคืขืœ
05:29
in sub-Sahara in the mid-1970s?
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ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืชืช ื”ืกื”ืจื” ื‘ืืžืฆืข ืฉื ื•ืช ื”ืฉื‘ืขื™ื?
05:31
Nobody else did.
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ืืฃ ืื—ื“ ืœื ื”ืงื™ื.
05:32
They chose instead Turkey and Mexico
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ื”ื ื‘ื—ืจื• ื‘ื˜ื•ืจืงื™ื” ื•ื‘ืžืงืกื™ืงื• ื‘ืžืงื•ื
05:35
to set up the textiles factories,
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ืœื”ืงืžืช ืžืคืขืœื™ ื˜ืงืกื˜ื™ืœ,
05:37
because their education levels
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ื›ื™ ืฉื™ืขื•ืจ ื”ื”ืฉื›ืœื”
05:39
were 25 to 30 percent.
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ืขืžื“ ืขืœ 25% ืขื“ 30%.
05:42
Today, sub-Sahara is at the levels
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ื›ื™ื•ื, ืฉื™ืขื•ืจ ื”ื”ืฉื›ืœื” ื‘ืชืช ื”ืกื”ืจื” ืžื’ื™ืข ืœืจืžื”
05:45
that Turkey and Mexico were at in 1975.
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ื‘ื• ื”ื™ื• ื˜ื•ืจืงื™ื” ื•ืžืงืกื™ืงื• ื‘ืฉื ืช 1975.
05:49
They will get the textiles jobs
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ื”ื ื™ื–ื›ื• ื‘ืžืฉืจื•ืช ื‘ืชื—ื•ื ื”ื˜ืงืกื˜ื™ืœ
05:52
that will take people out of rural poverty
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ืฉื™ื•ืฆื™ืื• ืื ืฉื™ื ืžืขื•ื ื™ ื›ืคืจื™
05:55
and put them on the road to industrialization and wealth.
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ื•ื™ื•ื‘ื™ืœื• ืื•ืชื ืœืชื™ืขื•ืฉ ื•ืœืขื•ืฉืจ.
05:59
So what's Africa looking like today?
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ืื– ืžื” ืžืฆืคื” ืœืืคืจื™ืงื” ื›ื™ื•ื?
06:02
This is how I look at Africa.
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ื›ืš ืื ื™ ืžืกืชื›ืœ ืขืœ ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
06:04
It's a bit odd, because I'm an economist.
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ื–ื” ืงืฆืช ืžื•ื–ืจ, ื›ื™ ืื ื™ ื›ืœื›ืœืŸ.
06:06
Each little box is about a billion dollars,
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ื›ืœ ืชื™ื‘ื” ืžื™ื™ืฆื’ืช ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ื“ื•ืœืจ,
06:08
and you see that I pay an awful lot of attention
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ื•ืืชื ืจื•ืื™ื ืฉืื ื™ ืžืงื“ื™ืฉ ืชืฉื•ืžืช ืœื‘ ืจื‘ื”
06:10
to Nigeria sitting there in the middle.
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ืœื ื™ื’ืจื™ื” ืฉื ืžืฆืืช ื‘ืžืจื›ื–.
06:12
South Africa is playing a role.
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ื’ื ืœื“ืจื•ื ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืชืคืงื™ื“ ื—ืฉื•ื‘.
06:14
But when I'm thinking about the future,
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ืื‘ืœ ื›ืืฉืจ ืื ื™ ื—ื•ืฉื‘ ืขืœ ื”ืขืชื™ื“,
06:16
I'm actually most interested
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ืื ื™ ืžืชืขื ื™ื™ืŸ ื™ื•ืชืจ
06:19
in Central, Western and Southern Africa.
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ื‘ืžืจื›ื–, ืžืขืจื‘ ื•ื“ืจื•ื ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
06:21
If I look at Africa by population,
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ื›ืฉืื ื™ ืžืกืชื›ืœ ืขืœ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื”
06:24
East Africa stands out
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ืžื–ืจื— ืืคืจื™ืงื” ื‘ื•ืœื˜ืช
06:25
as so much potential.
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ื›ื‘ืขืœืช ืคื•ื˜ื ืฆื™ืืœ ืขืฆื•ื.
06:27
And I'm showing you something else with these maps.
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ื•ืชืจืื• ื“ื‘ืจ ื ื•ืกืฃ ื‘ืžืคื•ืช.
06:30
I'm showing you democracy versus autocracy.
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ื–ื• ืžืคื” ืฉืœ ืฉืœื˜ื•ืŸ ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ ืžื•ืœ ืฉืœื˜ื•ืŸ ื™ื—ื™ื“ (ืžืœื•ื›ื”, ื“ื™ืงื˜ื˜ื•ืจื”...).
06:33
Fragile democracies is the beige color.
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ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื•ืช ืฉื‘ืจื™ืจื™ื•ืช ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื‘ื–'.
06:36
Strong democracies are the orange color.
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ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื•ืช ื™ืฆื™ื‘ื•ืช ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืชื•ื.
06:39
And what you'll see here is that most Africans
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ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉืจื•ื‘ ืชื•ืฉื‘ื™ ืืคืจื™ืงื”
06:42
are now living in democracies.
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ื—ื™ื™ื ื›ื™ื•ื ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื•ืช.
06:46
Why does that matter?
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ืœืžื” ื–ื” ืžืฉื ื”?
06:48
Because what people want
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ื›ื™ ืžื” ืฉื”ืขื ืจื•ืฆื”
06:50
is what politicians try,
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ื–ื” ืžื” ืฉื”ืคื•ืœื™ื˜ื™ืงืื™ื ืžื ืกื™ื ืœืขืฉื•ืช,
06:52
they don't always succeed, but they try and deliver.
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ืœื ืชืžื™ื“ ื”ื ืžืฆืœื™ื—ื™ื, ืื‘ืœ ื”ื ืžื ืกื™ื ืœื‘ืฆืข.
06:55
And what you've got is a reinforcing positive circle going on.
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ื•ื ื•ืฆืจ ืžืขื’ืœ ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™ ืฉืžื—ื–ืง ืืช ืขืฆืžื•.
06:58
In Ghana in the elections, in December 2012,
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ื‘ื’ืื ื”, ื‘ืžืขืจื›ืช ื”ื‘ื—ื™ืจื•ืช ืฉืœ ื“ืฆืžื‘ืจ 2012,
07:01
the battle between the two candidates
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ื”ืžืื‘ืง ื‘ื™ืŸ ืฉื ื™ ื”ืžืชืžื•ื“ื“ื™ื
07:03
was over education.
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ืขืกืง ื‘ืขื ื™ื™ื ื™ ื—ื™ื ื•ืš.
07:06
One guy offered free secondary school education
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ื”ืžืชืžื•ื“ื“ ื”ืจืืฉื•ืŸ ื”ืฆื™ืข ื—ื™ื ื•ืš ืชื™ื›ื•ื ื™ ื—ื™ื ื
07:08
to all, not just 30 percent.
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ืœื›ื•ืœื, ืœื ืจืง ืœ- 30%.
07:11
The other guy had to say,
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ื”ืžืชืžื•ื“ื“ ื”ืฉื ื™ ื ืืœืฅ ืœื”ื’ื™ื“,
07:12
I'm going to build 50 new schools.
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ืฉื”ื•ื ื™ื‘ื ื” 50 ื‘ืชื™ ืกืคืจ ื—ื“ืฉื™ื.
07:14
He won by a margin.
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ื”ื•ื ื–ื›ื” ื‘ื”ืคืจืฉ ื–ืขื•ื.
07:17
So democracy is encouraging governments
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ื›ืš ืฉื”ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื” ืžืขื•ื“ื“ืช ืžืžืฉืœื•ืช
07:20
to invest in education.
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ืœื”ืฉืงื™ืข ื‘ื—ื™ื ื•ืš.
07:22
Education is helping growth and investment,
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ื—ื™ื ื•ืš ืชื•ืžืš ื‘ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื•ื‘ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช,
07:24
and that's giving budget revenues,
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ืฉืžื•ื‘ื™ืœื™ื ืœื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ื‘ื”ื›ื ืกื•ืช ืœืชืงืฆื™ื‘,
07:25
which is giving governments more money,
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ื›ืš ืฉื™ืฉ ืœืžืžืฉืœื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ ื›ืกืฃ,
07:27
which is helping growth through education.
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ืฉืขื•ื–ืจ ืœืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื“ืจืš ื—ื™ื ื•ืš.
07:30
It's a positive, virtuous circle.
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ื–ื” ืžืขื’ืœ ื—ื™ื•ื‘ื™ ื•ืžื•ืกืจื™.
07:33
But I get asked this question,
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ืื‘ืœ ืฉื•ืืœื™ื ืื•ืชื™ ื”ืจื‘ื”,
07:35
and this particular question makes me quite sad:
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ื•ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ื–ื• ืžืขืฆื™ื‘ื” ืื•ืชื™:
07:38
It's, "But what about corruption?
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"ืžื” ืœื’ื‘ื™ ื”ืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช?
07:41
How can you invest in Africa when there's corruption?"
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ืื™ืš ืืคืฉืจ ืœื”ืฉืงื™ืข ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืฉืกื•ื‘ืœืช ืžืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช?"
07:45
And what makes me sad about it
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ื•ืžื” ืฉืžืขืฆื™ื‘ ืื•ืชื™
07:47
is that this graph here is showing you
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ื”ื™ื ื”ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉื›ืคื™ ืฉื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ื‘ื’ืจืฃ
07:49
that the biggest correlation with corruption is wealth.
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ืฉืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช ืžืงื•ืฉืจืช ื‘ืฆื•ืจื” ื—ื–ืงื” ื‘ื™ื•ืชืจ ืœืขื•ืฉืจ.
07:53
When you're poor, corruption is not your biggest priority.
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ื›ืฉืืชื” ืขื ื™, ืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช ื ืžืฆืืช ื ืžื•ืš ื‘ืกื“ืจ ื”ืขื“ื™ืคื•ื™ื•ืช ืฉืœืš.
07:57
And the countries on the right hand side,
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ื•ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื‘ืฆื“ื• ื”ื™ืžื ื™ ืฉืœ ื”ื’ืจืฃ,
07:59
you'll see the per capita GDP,
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ื ื™ืชืŸ ืœืจืื•ืช ืืช ื”ืชื•ืฆืจ ื”ืžืงื•ืžื™ ืœื ืคืฉ,
08:01
basically every country
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ื‘ื›ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื”
08:03
with a per capita GDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars,
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ื‘ื” ื”ืชื•ืฆืจ ื”ืžืงื•ืžื™ ืœื ืคืฉ, ื ืžื•ืš ืž- 5,000 ื“ื•ืœืจ,
08:06
has got a corruption score
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ืฆื™ื•ืŸ ื”ืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช
08:09
of roughly, what's that, about three?
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ื›ืžื” ื”ื•ื ื‘ืขืจืš, ืžืฉื”ื• ื›ืžื• 3?
08:12
Three out of 10. That's not good.
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3 ืžืชื•ืš 10. ื–ื” ืœื ื˜ื•ื‘.
08:14
Every poor country is corrupt.
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ื›ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืขื ื™ื™ื” ืกื•ื‘ืœืช ืžืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช.
08:16
Every rich country is relatively uncorrupt.
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ื›ืœ ืžื“ื™ื ื” ืขืฉื™ืจื” ื”ื™ื ืœื ืžื•ืฉื—ืชืช ื™ื—ืกื™ืช.
08:20
How do you get from poverty and corruption
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ืื™ืš ืžื’ื™ืขื™ื ืžืขื•ื ื™ ื•ืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช
08:24
to wealth and less corruption?
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ืœืขื•ืฉืจ ื•ืคื—ื•ืช ืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช?
08:27
You see the middle class grow.
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ื”ืžืขืžื“ ื”ื‘ื™ื ื•ื ื™ ื’ื“ืœ.
08:29
And the way to do that is to invest,
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ื•ื”ื“ืจืš ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช ื”ื™ื ืœื”ืฉืงื™ืข,
08:32
not to say I'm not investing in that continent
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ืœื ืœื”ื’ื™ื“ "ืื ื™ ืœื ืืฉืงื™ืข ื‘ื™ื‘ืฉืช ื”ื–ื•
08:36
because there's too much corruption.
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ื›ื™ ื™ืฉ ืฉื ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื“ื™ ืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช."
08:38
Now, I don't want to be an apologist for corruption.
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ืื ื™ ืœื ืจื•ืฆื” ืœื”ืชื ืฆืœ ืขืœ ื”ืฉื—ื™ืชื•ืช.
08:41
I've been arrested because I refused to pay a bribe --
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ื›ื‘ืจ ื ืืกืจืชื™ ื‘ืขื‘ืจ ื›ื™ ืกื™ืจื‘ืชื™ ืœืฉืœื ืฉื•ื—ื“ --
08:44
not in Africa, actually.
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ื”ืืžืช ืฉืœื ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
08:46
But what I'm saying here is that
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ืื‘ืœ ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ื˜ื•ืขืŸ ื–ื”
08:47
we can make a difference
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ืฉืื ื—ื ื• ืžืกื•ื’ืœื™ื ืœื”ืฉืคื™ืข
08:49
and we can do that by investing.
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ื•ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ืืช ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื”ืฉืงืขื•ืช.
08:52
Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret.
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ืื ื™ ืื’ืœื” ืœื›ื ืžืฉื”ื• ืงื˜ืŸ ื•ืœื ืžืžืฉ ืกื•ื“ื™.
08:56
Economists aren't great at forecasting.
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ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ื ืœื ืžืฆื˜ื™ื™ื ื™ื ื‘ืชื—ื–ื™ื•ืช.
08:58
Because the question really is, what happens next?
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ื›ื™ ื”ืฉืืœื” ื”ืขืงืจื•ื ื™ืช ื”ื™ื, ืžื” ื™ืงืจื” ื”ืœืื”?
09:01
And if you go back to the year 2000,
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ืื ื ื—ื–ื•ืจ ืœืฉื ืช 2000,
09:03
what you'll find is The Economist
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ื‘ืขื™ืชื•ืŸ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื™ The Economist
09:05
had a very famous cover, "The Hopeless Continent,"
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ื”ืชืคืจืกืžื” ื›ืชื‘ืช ืฉืขืจ ื™ื“ื•ืขื” "ื”ื™ื‘ืฉืช ื—ืกืจืช ื”ื™ืฉืข"
09:08
and what they'd done is they'd looked at growth
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ื•ืžื” ืฉื”ื ืขืฉื• ื”ื™ื” ืœื‘ื“ื•ืง ืืช ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื”
09:10
in Africa over the previous 10 years -- two percent --
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ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” ื‘ืขืฉืจ ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืงื•ื“ืžื•ืช, ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ืฉืœ 2% ืœืฉื ื”,
09:14
and they said,
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ื•ื”ื ืืžืจื•,
09:16
what's going to happen in the next 10 years?
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ืžื” ื™ืงืจื” ื‘- 10 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื•ืช?
09:19
They assumed two percent,
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ื”ื ื”ื ื™ื—ื• ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ืฉืœ 2% ืœืฉื ื”,
09:21
and that made it a pretty hopeless story,
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ื•ื”ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ื ืจืื” ืžืื“ ืขื’ื•ื,
09:23
because population growth was two and a half.
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ื›ื™ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ื’ื“ืœื” ื‘ืงืฆื‘ ืฉืœ 2.5% ืœืฉื ื”.
09:26
People got poorer in Africa in the 1990s.
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ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” ื ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ืขื ื™ื™ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ืฉื ื•ืช ื”- 90.
09:29
Now 2012, The Economist has a new cover,
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ื•ืขื›ืฉื™ื•, ื‘- 2012 ืœืขื™ืชื•ืŸ The Economist ื™ืฉ ื›ื•ืชืจืช ื—ื“ืฉื”,
09:33
and what does that new cover show?
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ื•ืžื” ืžืกืคืจืช ื”ื›ื•ืชืจืช ื”ื—ื“ืฉื”?
09:34
That new cover shows, well, Africa rising,
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ื”ื›ื•ืชืจืช ืžืกืคืจืช, ื•ื‘ื›ืŸ, ืฉืืคืจื™ืงื” ืฆื•ืžื—ืช.
09:37
because the growth over the last 10 years
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ื›ื™ ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ืžื”ืœืš 10 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช
09:39
has been about five and a half percent.
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื” ื‘ืงืฆื‘ ืฉืœ 5.5% ืœืฉื ื”.
09:42
I would like to see if you can all now become economists,
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ื‘ื•ืื• ื ืจืื” ืื ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœื—ืฉื•ื‘ ื›ืžื• ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ื,
09:45
because if growth for the last 10 years
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ืื ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘- 10 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืื—ืจื•ื ื•ืช
09:48
has been five and a half percent,
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ื”ื™ื™ืชื” 5.5%,
09:50
what do you think the IMF is forecasting
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ืžื” ืœื“ืขืชื›ื ื—ื•ื–ื” ืงืจืŸ ื”ืžื˜ื‘ืข ื”ื‘ื™ื "ืœ
09:52
for the next five years of growth in Africa?
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ืœื—ืžืฉ ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื•ืช ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื”?
09:55
Very good. I think you're secretly saying
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ื˜ื•ื‘ ืžืื“. ื ืจืื” ืœื™ ืฉื›ื•ืœื›ื ื—ืฉื‘ืชื
09:57
to your head, probably five and a half percent.
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ื‘ืจืืฉ, ื‘ืขืจืš 5.5%.
10:00
You're all economists, and I think,
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ื›ื•ืœื›ื ื—ื•ืฉื‘ื™ื ื›ืžื• ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ื, ื•ืœื“ืขืชื™,
10:02
like most economists, wrong.
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ื›ืžื• ืจื•ื‘ ื”ื›ืœื›ืœื ื™ื, ืืชื ื˜ื•ืขื™ื.
10:04
No offense.
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ืืœ ืชืขืœื‘ื•.
10:06
What I like to do is try and find the countries
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ืžื” ืฉืื ื™ ืจื•ืฆื” ืœืขืฉื•ืช ื–ื” ืœืืชืจ ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช
10:09
that are doing exactly what Africa has already done,
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ืฉืขื‘ืจื• ืชื”ืœื™ืš ื“ื•ืžื” ืœื–ื” ืฉืขื‘ืจื” ืืคืจื™ืงื”,
10:13
and it means that jump from 1,800 years of nothing
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ื›ืœื•ืžืจ ืœืงืคื•ืฅ ืž- 1,800 ืฉื ื” ืฉืœ ื–ื—ื™ืœื” ืื™ื˜ื™ืช
10:17
to whoof, suddenly shooting through the roof.
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ื•ื‘ื•ื, ืงืคื™ืฆื” ืขืฆื•ืžื” ืืœ ื”ืฉืžื™ื™ื.
10:20
India is one of those examples.
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ื”ื•ื“ื• ื”ื™ื ื“ื•ื’ืžื” ื˜ื•ื‘ื”.
10:22
This is Indian growth from 1960 to 2010.
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ื”ื’ืจืฃ ืžืจืื” ืืช ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ื”ื•ื“ื• ื‘ื™ืŸ 1960 ืœ- 2010.
10:26
Ignore the scale on the bottom for a second.
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ืชืชืขืœืžื• ืžื”ืžืงืจื ื‘ืชื—ืชื™ืช ื”ื’ืจืฃ ืœืจื’ืข.
10:29
Actually, for the first 20 years,
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ื‘ืžืฉืš 20 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื•ืช,
10:32
the '60s and '70s, India didn't really grow.
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ืฉื ื•ืช ื”- 60 ื•ื”- 70, ื”ื•ื“ื• ื›ืžืขื˜ ื•ืœื ืฆืžื—ื”.
10:35
It grew at two percent
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ื”ื™ื ืฆืžื—ื” ื‘ืงืฆื‘ ืฉืœ 2%
10:37
when population growth was about two and a half.
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ื›ืืฉืจ ืงืฆื‘ ื’ื™ื“ื•ืœ ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ืขืžื“ ืขืœ 2.5%.
10:40
If that's familiar, that's exactly what happened
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ืื ื–ื” ื ืฉืžืข ืœื›ื ืžื•ื›ืจ, ื–ื” ื‘ื“ื™ื•ืง ืžื” ืฉืงืจื”
10:42
in sub-Sahara in the '80s and the '90s.
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ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ืชืช-ื”ืกื”ืจื” ื‘ืฉื ื•ืช ื”- 80 ื•ื”- 90.
10:44
And then something happened in 1980.
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ื•ืื– ืงืจื” ืžืฉื”ื• ื‘- 1980.
10:46
Boom! India began to explode.
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ื‘ื•ื! ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ื”ื•ื“ื• ื”ืชืคื•ืฆืฆื”.
10:48
It wasn't a "Hindu rate of growth,"
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ื•ื–ื” ืœื ื”ื™ื” "ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ื”ื•ื“ื™ื™ื",
10:51
"democracies can't grow." Actually India could.
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"ื“ืžื•ืงืจื˜ื™ื•ืช ืœื ืฆื•ืžื—ื•ืช". ืขื•ื‘ื“ื” ืฉื”ื•ื“ื• ืฆืžื—ื”.
10:54
And if I lay sub-Saharan growth
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ื•ืื ื ืฉืœื™ืš ืขืœ ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ืชืช-ื”ืกื”ืจื”
10:57
on top of the Indian growth story,
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ืืช ืกื™ืคื•ืจ ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื”ื”ื•ื“ื™,
10:59
it's remarkably similar.
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ื”ื•ื ื“ื•ืžื” ืžืื“.
11:01
Twenty years of not much growth
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20 ืฉื ื” ืœืœื ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ืืžื™ืชื™ืช
11:04
and a trend line which is actually telling you
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ื•ืงื• ืžื’ืžื” ืฉืžืจืื” ืœื ื•
11:05
that sub-Saharan African growth is
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ืฉื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ืชืช-ื”ืกื”ืจื”
11:07
slightly better than India.
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ืžืขื˜ ื˜ื•ื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื‘ื”ื•ื“ื•.
11:10
And if I then lay developing Asia on top of this,
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ื•ืื ื ืฉืœื™ืš ืขื›ืฉื™ื• ืืช ื ืชื•ื ื™ ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืžืชืคืชื—ื•ืช ื‘ืืกื™ื” ืขืœ ื”ื’ืจืฃ,
11:13
I'm saying India is 20 years ahead of Africa,
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ืื ื™ ื˜ื•ืขืŸ ืฉื”ื•ื“ื• ืžืงื“ื™ืžื” ืืช ืืคืจื™ืงื” ื‘- 20 ืฉื ื”,
11:16
I'm saying developing Asia is 10 years ahead of India,
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ื•ืื ื™ ื˜ื•ืขืŸ ืฉื”ืžื“ื™ื ื•ืช ื”ืžืชืคืชื—ื•ืช ื‘ืืกื™ื” ื ืžืฆืื•ืช 10 ืฉื ื™ื ืœืคื ื™ ื”ื•ื“ื•,
11:20
I can draw out some forecasts
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ื ืจืื” ืœื™ ืฉืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœ ืœื—ื–ื•ืช
11:22
for the next 30 to 40 years
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ืžื” ื™ืงืจื” ื‘- 30 ืขื“ 40 ืฉื ื” ื”ื‘ืื•ืช
11:25
which I think are better
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ืฉื ืจืื” ืœื™ ืฉื™ื”ื™ื• ื˜ื•ื‘ื•ืช ื™ื•ืชืจ
11:27
than the ones where you're looking backwards.
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ืžื”ืฉื ื™ื ืฉืขื‘ืจื ื• ืขื›ืฉื™ื•.
11:30
And that tells me this:
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ื•ืืœื• ื”ืžืกืงื ื•ืช ืฉืœื™:
11:32
that Africa is going to go
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ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืขื•ืžื“ืช ืœืฆืžื•ื—
11:34
from a $2 trillion economy today
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ืžื›ืœื›ืœื” ืฉืœ 2 ื˜ืจื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืœืจ ื›ื™ื•ื
11:37
to a $29 trillion economy by 2050.
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ืœื›ืœื›ืœื” ืฉืœ 29 ื˜ืจื™ืœื™ื•ืŸ ื“ื•ืœืจ ื‘ืฉื ืช 2050.
11:41
Now that's bigger than Europe and America
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ื–ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžืื™ืจื•ืคื” ื•ืืžืจื™ืงื”
11:43
put together in today's money.
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ื™ื—ื“ ื‘ืžื•ื ื—ื™ื ืฉืœ ื”ื™ื•ื.
11:46
Life expectancy is going to go up by 13 years.
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ืชื•ื—ืœืช ื”ื—ื™ื™ื ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืชืขืœื” ื‘- 13 ืฉื ื”.
11:50
The population's going to double
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ื”ืื•ื›ืœื•ืกื™ื™ื” ืชื•ื›ืคืœ
11:52
from one billion to two billion,
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ืžืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“ ืœืฉื ื™ ืžื™ืœื™ืืจื“,
11:54
so household incomes are going to go up sevenfold
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ื”ื”ื›ื ืกื” ืœื‘ื™ืช ืื‘ ืชื’ื“ืœ ืคื™ 7
11:57
in the next 35 years.
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ื‘- 35 ื”ืฉื ื™ื ื”ื‘ืื•ืช.
12:00
And when I present this in Africa --
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ื•ื›ืฉืื ื™ ืžืฆื™ื’ ืืช ื”ื ืชื•ื ื™ื ื”ืืœื• ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื” --
12:03
Nairobi, Lagos, Accra -- I get one question.
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ื ื™ื™ืจื•ื‘ื™, ืœื’ื•ืก, ืืงืจื” -- ืฉื•ืืœื™ื ืื•ืชื™ ืืช ืื•ืชื” ื”ืฉืืœื”:
12:07
"Charlie, why are you so pessimistic?"
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"ืฆ'ืจืœื™, ืœืžื” ืืชื” ื›ืœ ื›ืš ืคืกื™ืžื™?"
12:12
And you know what?
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ื•ืืชื ื™ื•ื“ืขื™ื ืžื”?
12:13
Actually, I think they've got a point.
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ื ืจืื” ืœื™ ืฉื”ื ืฆื•ื“ืงื™ื.
12:16
Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned,
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ื”ืื ืื ื™ ื˜ื•ืขืŸ ืฉืœื ื ืฉืืจ ืžื” ืœืœืžื•ื“
12:18
yes from the positives in Asia and India,
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ื’ื ืžื”ื’ื•ืจืžื™ื ืฉื”ืฉืคื™ืขื• ืœื˜ื•ื‘ื” ืขืœ ื”ืฆืžื™ื—ื” ื‘ืืกื™ื” ื•ื‘ื”ื•ื“ื•,
12:22
but also the negatives?
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ื•ื’ื ืžื”ื’ื•ืจืžื™ื ืฉื”ืฉืคื™ืขื• ืœืจืขื”?
12:23
Perhaps Africa can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made.
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ืื•ืœื™ ืืคืจื™ืงื” ืชืฆืœื™ื— ืœื”ื™ืžื ืข ืžื—ืœืง ืžื”ื˜ืขื•ื™ื•ืช ืฉื ืขืฉื• ื‘ืขื‘ืจ?
12:26
Surely, the technologies that we're talking about here
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ืื™ืŸ ืกืคืง ืฉื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื•ืช ืขืœื™ื”ื ืื ื—ื ื• ืžื“ื‘ืจื™ื ื›ืืŸ
12:29
this last week,
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ื‘ืžื”ืœืš ื”ืฉื‘ืข ื”ืื—ืจื•ืŸ,
12:31
surely some of these can perhaps
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ื•ื“ืื™ ืฉื—ืœืง ืžื”ืŸ ื™ื•ื›ืœื•
12:32
help Africa grow even faster?
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ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ืœืืคืจื™ืงื” ืœื’ื“ื•ืœ ืžื”ืจ ื™ื•ืชืจ.
12:35
And I think here we can play a role.
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ื•ื ืจืื” ืœื™ ืฉื–ื” ื”ืชืคืงื™ื“ ืฉืœื ื•.
12:38
Because technology does let you help.
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ื›ื™ ื”ื˜ื›ื ื•ืœื•ื’ื™ื” ืžืืคืฉืจืช ืœื›ื ืœืขื–ื•ืจ.
12:40
You can go and download
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ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœื”ื•ืจื™ื“
12:43
some of the great African literature
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ืกืคืจื•ืช ืืคืจื™ืงืื™ืช ื ืคืœืื”
12:45
from the Internet now.
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ืžื”ืื™ื ื˜ืจื ื˜ ื›ื™ื•ื.
12:46
No, not right now, just 30 seconds.
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ืœื, ืœื ื›ืจื’ืข, ื—ื›ื• 30 ืฉื ื™ื•ืช.
12:49
You can go and buy some of the great tunes.
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ืืชื ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืงื ื•ืช ืžื ื’ื™ื ื•ืช ื ื”ื“ืจื•ืช.
12:51
My iPod's full of them.
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ื”ืื™ื™ืคื•ื“ ืฉืœื™ ืžืœื ื‘ื”ืŸ.
12:53
Buy African products.
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ืชืงื ื• ืžื•ืฆืจื™ื ืฉื™ื•ืฆืจื• ื‘ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
12:55
Go on holiday and see for yourself
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ืฆืื• ืœื ื•ืคืฉ ื•ืชืจืื• ื‘ืขืฆืžื›ื
12:57
the change that's happening.
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ืืช ื”ืฉื™ื ื•ื™ ืฉืžืชืจื—ืฉ ื›ื™ื•ื.
12:58
Invest.
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ืชืฉืงื™ืขื•.
12:59
Perhaps hire people, give them the skills
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ืื•ืœื™ ืชืขืกื™ืงื• ืื ืฉื™ื, ืชืœืžื“ื• ืื•ืชื ืžื™ื•ืžื ื•ื™ื•ืช
13:02
that they can take back to Africa,
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ืฉื”ื ื™ื•ื›ืœื• ืœืงื—ืช ืืชื ืœืืคืจื™ืงื”,
13:04
and their companies will grow an awful lot faster
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ื›ืš ืฉื”ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉืœื”ื ื™ื’ื“ืœื• ื”ืจื‘ื” ื™ื•ืชืจ ืžื”ืจ
13:06
than most of ours here in the West.
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ืžืจื•ื‘ ื”ื—ื‘ืจื•ืช ืฉืœื ื• ื‘ืžืขืจื‘.
13:09
And then you and I can help make sure
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ื•ื›ืš ืืชื ื•ืื ื™ ื™ื›ื•ืœื™ื ืœืขื–ื•ืจ ืœื”ืคื•ืš
13:13
that for Africa, the 21st century is their century.
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ืืช ื”ืžืื” ื”- 21 ืœืžืื” ืฉืœ ืืคืจื™ืงื”.
13:17
Thank you very much.
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ืชื•ื“ื” ืจื‘ื” ืœื›ื.
13:19
(Applause)
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(ืžื—ื™ืื•ืช ื›ืคื™ื™ื)
ืขืœ ืืชืจ ื–ื”

ืืชืจ ื–ื” ื™ืฆื™ื’ ื‘ืคื ื™ื›ื ืกืจื˜ื•ื ื™ YouTube ื”ืžื•ืขื™ืœื™ื ืœืœื™ืžื•ื“ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช. ืชื•ื›ืœื• ืœืจืื•ืช ืฉื™ืขื•ืจื™ ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืขื‘ืจื™ื ืขืœ ื™ื“ื™ ืžื•ืจื™ื ืžื”ืฉื•ืจื” ื”ืจืืฉื•ื ื” ืžืจื—ื‘ื™ ื”ืขื•ืœื. ืœื—ืฅ ืคืขืžื™ื™ื ืขืœ ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื‘ืื ื’ืœื™ืช ื”ืžื•ืฆื’ื•ืช ื‘ื›ืœ ื“ืฃ ื•ื™ื“ืื• ื›ื“ื™ ืœื”ืคืขื™ืœ ืืช ื”ืกืจื˜ื•ืŸ ืžืฉื. ื”ื›ืชื•ื‘ื™ื•ืช ื’ื•ืœืœื•ืช ื‘ืกื ื›ืจื•ืŸ ืขื ื”ืคืขืœืช ื”ื•ื•ื™ื“ืื•. ืื ื™ืฉ ืœืš ื”ืขืจื•ืช ืื• ื‘ืงืฉื•ืช, ืื ื ืฆื•ืจ ืื™ืชื ื• ืงืฉืจ ื‘ืืžืฆืขื•ืช ื˜ื•ืคืก ื™ืฆื™ืจืช ืงืฉืจ ื–ื”.

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