Charles Robertson: Africa's next boom

翻译人员: xuan wang 校对人员: Peipei Xiang

Africa is booming.

非洲正在蓬勃发展。

Per capita incomes since the year 2000

人均收入自2000年以来

have doubled,

已经翻了一番，

and this boom is impacting on everyone.

而这种发展正在影响着所有人。

Life expectancy has increased by one year

在过去的十年里，人均寿命 以每三年增加一年的速度递增着。

every three years for the last decade.

在过去的十年里，人均寿命 以每三年增加一年的速度递增着。

That means if an African child is born today,

这意味着今天出生的一个非洲孩子，

rather than three days ago,

比起三天前出生的，

they will get an extra day of life

会最终多活一天。

at the end of their lifespan.

会最终多活一天。

It's that quick.

就是这么快。

And HIV infection rates are down 27 percent:

艾滋病的感染率也下降了27％：

600,000 less people a year are getting HIV

在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，每年得病的人数减少了60万。

in sub-Saharan Africa.

在撒哈拉以南非洲地区，每年得病的人数减少了60万。

The battle against malaria is being won,

与疟疾的战斗正在取得胜利，

with deaths from malaria down 27 percent,

根据最新的世界银行的数据， 得疟疾的人数已经下降了27％。

according to the latest World Bank data.

根据最新的世界银行的数据， 得疟疾的人数已经下降了27％。

And malaria nets actually are playing a role in that.

而用于防止疟疾的蚊帐起到了很大的作用。

This shouldn't surprise us,

我们不应该对此感到惊讶，

because actually, everybody grows.

因为，实际上，所有人都在发展。

If you go back to Imperial Rome

如果大家回顾公元一年的罗马帝国，

in the Year 1 A.D.,

如果大家回顾公元一年的罗马帝国，

there was admittedly about 1,800 years

在大概1800年的时间里

where there wasn't an awful lot of growth.

世界经济并没有什么突飞猛进的发展。

But then the people that the Romans

但是此后，那些会被罗马人叫做

would have called Scottish barbarians, my ancestors,

苏格兰野蛮人的民族，我的祖先们，

were actually part of the Industrial Revolution,

实际上加入了工业革命的时代，

and in the 19th century, growth began to accelerate,

而在19世纪，经济发展开始加速，

and you saw that get quicker and quicker,

然后大家看到它变得越来越快，

and it's been impacting everyone.

而这对每个人都有影响。

It doesn't matter if this is the jungles of Singapore

不管是新加坡的丛林

or the tundra of northern Finland.

还是芬兰北部的苔原。

Everybody gets involved. It's just a matter of when

每个人都参与其中。这是不可避免的， 它的发生只是一个时间问题。

the inevitable happens.

每个人都参与其中。这是不可避免的， 它的发生只是一个时间问题。

Among the reasons I think it's happening right now

我认为之所以现在发生的原因之一是

is the quality of the leadership across Africa.

非洲整体的领导素质。

I think most of us would agree that in the 1990s,

我想在座的大多数会同意早在1990年代，

the greatest politician in the world was African,

世界上最伟大的政治家是非洲人，

but I'm meeting brilliant people

但是我在这片大陆上一直都在

across the continent the entire time,

和非常聪明的人打交道，

and they're doing the reforms

而他们正在进行着

which have transformed the economic situation

扭转整个国家经济形式的改革。

for their countries.

扭转整个国家经济形式的改革。

And the West is engaging with that.

而西方国家也投入其中。

The West has given debt forgiveness programs

西方国家已经给予了债务减免计划，

which have halved sub-Saharan debt

这使得撒哈拉以南的债务

from about 70 percent of GDP down to about 40.

从占GDP总数的70％降到40％。

At the same time, our debt level's gone up to 120

与此同时，我们自己的债务水平上涨到了120％

and we're all feeling slightly miserable

而我们都对此感到些许悲愁。

as a result.

而我们都对此感到些许悲愁。

Politics gets weaker when debt is high.

政治会因债务过高而变得软弱。

When public sector debt is low,

当公共债务水平低的时候，

governments don't have to choose

政府无需在

between investing in education and health

投资教育和健康，

and paying interest on that debt you owe.

还是为自己的债务付利息之间作选择。

And it's not just the public sector which is looking so good.

不仅仅是公共部门前景看好，

The private sector as well.

私营部门也一样。

Again, in the West, we have private sector debt

再次，在西方，我们有私营部门债务占到

of 200 percent of GDP in Spain,

GDP 200％的西班牙，

the U.K., and the U.S.

英国和美国。

That's an awful lot of debt.

这简直是太可怕的债务了。

Africa, many African countries,

大多数的非洲国家，

are sitting at 10 to 30 percent of GDP.

这种债务只占GDP的10％到30％。

If there's any continent that can do what China has done --

如果有哪个大陆可以取得中国已经取得的成绩－

China's at about 130 percent of GDP on that chart --

在那张图上，中国大概在GDP的130％－

if anyone can do what China has done

如果有人可以做到中国

in the last 30 years,

在过去30年取得的成绩，

it'll be Africa in the next 30.

这就是未来三十年的非洲。

So they've got great government finances, great private sector debt.

他们有很好的政府经济条件和健康的私营部门债务。

Does anyone recognize this? In fact, they do.

有人认识到这一点了吗？实际上，有的。

Foreign direct investment

外商直接投资

has poured into Africa in the last 15 years.

在过去的15年间源源不断的涌入非洲。

Back in the '70s,

在上世纪70年代，

no one touched the continent with a barge pole.

还没有人染指这片大陆。

And this investment is actually Western-led.

而现在这些投资实际上是由西方领导的。

We hear a lot about China,

我们大多数听到的是中国，

and they do lend a lot of money,

他们确实是借给了很多钱，

but 60 percent of the FDI in the last couple of years

但在过去几年60％的外国直接投资

has come from Europe, America, Australia, Canada.

来自于欧洲、美国、澳大利亚、加拿大。

Ten percent's come from India.

10％来自印度。

And they're investing in energy.

他们在投资能源。

Africa produces 10 million barrels a day of oil now.

非洲每天生产一千万桶的原油，

It's the same as Saudi Arabia or Russia.

与沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯相当。

And they're investing in telecoms,

他们在投资通信，

shopping malls.

购物中心。

And this very encouraging story, I think,

而这个非常鼓舞人心的现象，我认为，

is partly demographic-led.

部分是由人口因素主导的。

And it's not just about African demographics.

而这不仅是非洲的人口。

I'm showing you the number of 15- to 24-year-olds

现在大家看到的是世界不同地区的 年纪在15－24岁之间的人口数，

in various parts of the world,

现在大家看到的是世界不同地区的 年纪在15－24岁之间的人口数，

and the blue line is the one I want you to focus on for a second.

而我想让大家注意看一下那条蓝线。

Ten years ago, say you're Foxconn

10年前，比如说富士康想要

setting up an iPhone factory, by chance.

建一座苹果手机生产工厂。

You might choose China,

你可能会选中国，

which is the bulk of that East Asian blue line,

这就是那条代表东亚的蓝线，

where there's 200 million young people,

这里有2亿年轻人，

and every year until 2010 that's getting bigger.

这个数字每年都在增加直到2010年。

Which means you're going to have new guys

这意味着你会有源源不断的新的年轻人

knocking on the door saying, "Give us a job,"

找上门来说，“请给我们工作，”

and, "I don't need a big pay rise, just please give me a job."

和“我不需要大幅度地加工资，只要给我一份工作就行。”

Now, that's completely changed now.

现在呢，这种情况彻底不同了。

This decade, we're going to see a 20- to 30-percent

这个10年，在中国15到24岁之间的 年轻人比例会下降20％到30％。

fall in the number of 15- to 24-year-olds in China.

这个10年，在中国15到24岁之间的 年轻人比例会下降20％到30％。

So where do you set up your new factory?

那么你会在哪里设立自己的新工厂呢？

You look at South Asia, and people are.

你会想到南亚，确实人们在这么做。

They're looking at Pakistan and Bangladesh,

人们在考虑巴基斯坦和孟加拉国，

and they're also looking at Africa.

同时也在考虑非洲。

And they're looking at Africa

而考虑非洲的原因是

because that yellow line is showing you

那条黄线正在告诉我们

that the number of young Africans

非洲的年轻人数量

is going to continue to get bigger

会持续的增加，

decade after decade after decade out to 2050.

一个十年接着一个十年一直到2050年。

Now, there's a problem with lots of young people

而有这么多年轻人加入到任何市场 都会产生一个问题，

coming into any market,

而有这么多年轻人加入到任何市场 都会产生一个问题，

particularly when they're young men.

特别是当他们是年轻男性的时候。

A bit dangerous, sometimes.

有时候是有些危险的。

I think one of the crucial factors

我认为一个非常关键的问题是

is how educated is that demographic?

那部分人口的教育程度如何？

If you look at the red line here,

如果大家看看这条红线，

what you're going to see is that in 1975,

你会看到在1975年，

just nine percent of kids

在撒哈拉以南的非洲 只有9％的孩子接受了中学教育。

were in secondary school education

在撒哈拉以南的非洲 只有9％的孩子接受了中学教育。

in sub-Saharan Africa.

在撒哈拉以南的非洲 只有9％的孩子接受了中学教育。

Would you set up a factory

你会在70年代中期在撒哈拉以南开设工厂吗？

in sub-Sahara in the mid-1970s?

你会在70年代中期在撒哈拉以南开设工厂吗？

Nobody else did.

没有人这么做。

They chose instead Turkey and Mexico

他们选择了土耳其和墨西哥

to set up the textiles factories,

开设纺织工厂，

because their education levels

因为他们的教育水平是

were 25 to 30 percent.

25％到30％之间。

Today, sub-Sahara is at the levels

今天，撒哈拉以南的教育水平已经达到

that Turkey and Mexico were at in 1975.

土耳其和墨西哥在1975年的水平。

They will get the textiles jobs

他们会得到纺织工作

that will take people out of rural poverty

这会让人们远离贫困，

and put them on the road to industrialization and wealth.

走上通往工业化和小康之路。

So what's Africa looking like today?

那么非洲现在是什么样子呢？

This is how I look at Africa.

我是这么看非洲的。

It's a bit odd, because I'm an economist.

看上去有点奇怪，因为我是一个经济学家。

Each little box is about a billion dollars,

每个小盒子大概是10亿美金，

and you see that I pay an awful lot of attention

大家可以看到我对中间的

to Nigeria sitting there in the middle.

尼日利亚非常关注。

South Africa is playing a role.

南非起着很大的作用。

But when I'm thinking about the future,

但当我想到未来的时候，

I'm actually most interested

实际上我最感兴趣的是

in Central, Western and Southern Africa.

中部、西部和南部非洲。

If I look at Africa by population,

如果按人口来看非洲，

East Africa stands out

东非显得非常突出，

as so much potential.

潜力巨大。

And I'm showing you something else with these maps.

我用这些地图给大家展示些其他的。

I'm showing you democracy versus autocracy.

这里显示着民主和专制制度的对比图。

Fragile democracies is the beige color.

脆弱的民主是米色。

Strong democracies are the orange color.

强大的民主是橙色。

And what you'll see here is that most Africans

大家可以看到的是大部分的非洲人

are now living in democracies.

都生活在民主制度中。

Why does that matter?

这有什么关系么？

Because what people want

因为人民想要的是

is what politicians try,

政治家们争取实现的，

they don't always succeed, but they try and deliver.

他们并不总是成功，但是他们会努力。

And what you've got is a reinforcing positive circle going on.

因此你就会有一个持续的良性循环。

In Ghana in the elections, in December 2012,

在2012年12月的加纳大选上，

the battle between the two candidates

两个候选人之间的较量是

was over education.

关于教育。

One guy offered free secondary school education

一个人提出全民免费中学教育，

to all, not just 30 percent.

而不是仅仅30％。

The other guy had to say,

另一个人则说，

I'm going to build 50 new schools.

我要建50座新学校。

He won by a margin.

他最后险胜。

So democracy is encouraging governments

因此民主鼓励政府

to invest in education.

投资教育。

Education is helping growth and investment,

教育可以促进经济增长和投资，

and that's giving budget revenues,

而这又增加了预算收入，

which is giving governments more money,

使得政府有更多的资金

which is helping growth through education.

通过投资教育来促进经济增长。

It's a positive, virtuous circle.

这就是一个积极的良性的循环。

But I get asked this question,

但是我又被问到这个问题，

and this particular question makes me quite sad:

而这个问题让我感觉很悲伤：

It's, "But what about corruption?

那就是，“但是贪污腐败呢？

How can you invest in Africa when there's corruption?"

你怎么能在非洲有腐败的时候投资呢？“

And what makes me sad about it

之所以让我感到悲伤的因为

is that this graph here is showing you

这张图告诉我们

that the biggest correlation with corruption is wealth.

和腐败关系最紧密的是财富。

When you're poor, corruption is not your biggest priority.

当你很穷的时候，腐败问题不是你首先考虑的。

And the countries on the right hand side,

而在右边的国家里，

you'll see the per capita GDP,

你会看到人均生产总值，

basically every country

基本上每个人均GDP少于5000美金的国家，

with a per capita GDP of, say, less than 5,000 dollars,

基本上每个人均GDP少于5000美金的国家，

has got a corruption score

对应的腐败值

of roughly, what's that, about three?

大概是3？

Three out of 10. That's not good.

10个人里有3个人。这不乐观。

Every poor country is corrupt.

每个贫穷国家都受腐败之苦。

Every rich country is relatively uncorrupt.

每个富裕国家相对来说更清廉。

How do you get from poverty and corruption

你怎样才能从贫穷和腐败

to wealth and less corruption?

过渡到富裕和清廉？

You see the middle class grow.

大家看到中产阶级的发展壮大。

And the way to do that is to invest,

而这需要的就是投资，

not to say I'm not investing in that continent

而不是不投资那个大陆

because there's too much corruption.

因为有太多的贪污腐败。

Now, I don't want to be an apologist for corruption.

我不想做为腐败开脱的人。

I've been arrested because I refused to pay a bribe --

我曾经因为拒绝行贿而被抓过－

not in Africa, actually.

实际上不在非洲。

But what I'm saying here is that

但是我想说的是

we can make a difference

我们可以通过投资而有所作为。

and we can do that by investing.

我们可以通过投资而有所作为。

Now I'm going to let you in on a little not-so-secret.

现在我告诉大家一个不是秘密的秘密。

Economists aren't great at forecasting.

经济学家对预测未来并不很在行。

Because the question really is, what happens next?

因为问题是，未来会怎样？

And if you go back to the year 2000,

如果大家回看2000年，

what you'll find is The Economist

你会发现《经济学人》杂志

had a very famous cover, "The Hopeless Continent,"

有一个非常有名的封面，“无望的大陆，”

and what they'd done is they'd looked at growth

他们回顾了非洲在过去十年的

in Africa over the previous 10 years -- two percent --

发展曲线－只有2％－

and they said,

然后他们说，

what's going to happen in the next 10 years?

下一个十年会是怎样的呢？

They assumed two percent,

他们认为还是只有2％，

and that made it a pretty hopeless story,

这就造成了一个非常无望的前景，

because population growth was two and a half.

因为人口增长是2.5％。

People got poorer in Africa in the 1990s.

非洲人在1990年代变得更穷了。

Now 2012, The Economist has a new cover,

现在2012年，《经济学人》有了一个新封面，

and what does that new cover show?

而这个新封面透露了什么信息？

That new cover shows, well, Africa rising,

它显示了，相反地，非洲在腾飞，

because the growth over the last 10 years

因为过去十年的经济增长变成了

has been about five and a half percent.

5.5%.

I would like to see if you can all now become economists,

我想看看大家现在能不能都变成经济学家，

because if growth for the last 10 years

因为如果过去的经济增长是

has been five and a half percent,

5.5%,

what do you think the IMF is forecasting

你认为国际货币基金组织

for the next five years of growth in Africa?

对未来5年的非洲经济发展的预测是多少？

Very good. I think you're secretly saying

非常好。我想你们都在暗自算着，

to your head, probably five and a half percent.

大概还是5.5%.

You're all economists, and I think,

你们都是经济学家了，而我认为，

like most economists, wrong.

就像许多经济学家一样，大家都错了。

No offense.

我没有恶意哈。

What I like to do is try and find the countries

我喜欢做的是尝试找到那些

that are doing exactly what Africa has already done,

经历过和非洲一样情况的国家，

and it means that jump from 1,800 years of nothing

就是经过了1800年的无所作为，

to whoof, suddenly shooting through the roof.

突然之间，势如破竹般的增长。

India is one of those examples.

印度就是其中的一个例子。

This is Indian growth from 1960 to 2010.

这是印度1960年到2010年之间的经济增长情况。

Ignore the scale on the bottom for a second.

请暂时忽略底部的比例。

Actually, for the first 20 years,

实际上，在最初的20年，

the '60s and '70s, India didn't really grow.

60和70年代，印度的经济实际上没有增长。

It grew at two percent

经济增长了2％，

when population growth was about two and a half.

而人口的增速是2.5%。

If that's familiar, that's exactly what happened

看上去有些熟悉吧，这就是

in sub-Sahara in the '80s and the '90s.

撒哈拉以南地区在80到90年代的情况。

And then something happened in 1980.

在1980年奇迹发生了。

Boom! India began to explode.

突然！印度经济蓬勃发展。

It wasn't a "Hindu rate of growth,"

它不再是一个“印度式经济增长率，”

"democracies can't grow." Actually India could.

“民主不可能增长。”实际上印度做到了。

And if I lay sub-Saharan growth

如果我把撒哈拉以南地区的经济增长图

on top of the Indian growth story,

放在印度的发展图上，

it's remarkably similar.

两者是惊人的相似。

Twenty years of not much growth

20年的默默无闻，

and a trend line which is actually telling you

然后一条未来的走势曲线实际上告诉大家

that sub-Saharan African growth is

撒哈拉以南的非洲经济增长

slightly better than India.

比印度似乎还稍微好些。

And if I then lay developing Asia on top of this,

如果和发展中的亚洲做一个比较，

I'm saying India is 20 years ahead of Africa,

我会说印度比非洲发达20年，

I'm saying developing Asia is 10 years ahead of India,

而发展中的亚洲又比印度发达10年，

I can draw out some forecasts

我可以因此预测到

for the next 30 to 40 years

未来30到40年的情况，

which I think are better

我认为这比

than the ones where you're looking backwards.

往回看更好些。

And that tells me this:

我的结论是：

that Africa is going to go

非洲会从

from a $2 trillion economy today

今天的2万亿的经济体

to a $29 trillion economy by 2050.

变成2050年的29万亿经济体。

Now that's bigger than Europe and America

那比今天欧洲和美国的总和

put together in today's money.

还要多。

Life expectancy is going to go up by 13 years.

人均寿命会延长13年。

The population's going to double

人口会翻番

from one billion to two billion,

从10亿到20亿，

so household incomes are going to go up sevenfold

家庭收入在未来的35年会增长7倍。

in the next 35 years.

家庭收入在未来的35年会增长7倍。

And when I present this in Africa --

当我在非洲做这个预测的时候－

Nairobi, Lagos, Accra -- I get one question.

内罗毕，拉各斯，阿克拉－我被问到一个问题。

"Charlie, why are you so pessimistic?"

“查理，你为什么这么悲观呢？”

And you know what?

大家知道吗？

Actually, I think they've got a point.

实际上，我认为他们是对的。

Am I really saying that there can be nothing learned,

难道我的意思是不管是好的

yes from the positives in Asia and India,

还是坏的方面，非洲就不能从亚洲和印度

but also the negatives?

身上学到什么吗？

Perhaps Africa can avoid some of the mistakes that have been made.

也许非洲可以避免一些它们犯过的错误。

Surely, the technologies that we're talking about here

上周我们在这里讨论的科技发展，

this last week,

上周我们在这里讨论的科技发展，

surely some of these can perhaps

它们中的一些肯定也可以

help Africa grow even faster?

帮助非洲发展得更快吧？

And I think here we can play a role.

而我认为我们也可以扮演一定的角色。

Because technology does let you help.

因为科技让你有能力帮助。

You can go and download

你现在可以从网上下载一些伟大的非洲文学书籍。

some of the great African literature

你现在可以从网上下载一些伟大的非洲文学书籍。

from the Internet now.

你现在可以从网上下载一些伟大的非洲文学书籍。

No, not right now, just 30 seconds.

不，不是现在，还有30秒就好了。

You can go and buy some of the great tunes.

你可以购买一些非常棒的音乐。

My iPod's full of them.

我的iPod里面有很多。

Buy African products.

购买非洲产品。

Go on holiday and see for yourself

去非洲度假，亲眼看看

the change that's happening.

那里的变化。

Invest.

投资。

Perhaps hire people, give them the skills

或者雇人，培养他们以后可以在非洲使用的技能，

that they can take back to Africa,

或者雇人，培养他们以后可以在非洲使用的技能，

and their companies will grow an awful lot faster

他们的公司比我们西方的公司

than most of ours here in the West.

会发展得快得多得多。

And then you and I can help make sure

这样你们和我可以帮助确保

that for Africa, the 21st century is their century.

21世纪是非洲的世纪。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）