Seth Shostak: ET is (probably) out there — get ready

Translator: Morton Bast Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha

Prevodilac: Ana Petrovic Lektor: Mile Živković

Is E.T. out there?

Da li su vanzemaljci negde tamo?

Well, I work at the SETI Institute.

Ja radim u SETI institutu.

That's almost my name. SETI:

To mi je drugo ime, SETI:

Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence.

SETI (program potrage za vanzemaljskim životom.)

In other words, I look for aliens,

Ja zapravo tragam za vanzemaljcima.

and when I tell people that at a cocktail party, they usually

Kada to kažem ljudima na zabavi, oni me obično

look at me with a mildly incredulous look on their face.

gledaju sa nevericom,

I try to keep my own face somewhat dispassionate.

ali se ja trudim da ne pokažem da me te reakcije dotiču.

Now, a lot of people think that this is kind of idealistic,

Ovo sto ću vam sada reći zvuči idealistički,

ridiculous, maybe even hopeless,

suludo, možda čak i beznadežno,

but I just want to talk to you a little bit about why I think

ali samo želim da vam pokažem zašto smatram

that the job I have is actually a privilege, okay,

da je posao koji ja radim zapravo privilegija

and give you a little bit of the motivation for my getting into

i da vam predočim šta me je motivisalo

this line of work, if that's what you call it.

da se bavim ovim poslom, ako se to tako može nazvati.

This thing — whoops, can we go back?

Ovaj kadar - ups, može li nazad?

Hello, come in, Earth.

Zdravo, Zemlja zove.

There we go. All right.

Evo ga. Dobro je.

This is the Owens Valley Radio Observatory

Ovo je radio opservatorija u dolini Ovens

behind the Sierra Nevadas, and in 1968,

iza Sijera Nevade. 1968. godine

I was working there collecting data for my thesis.

radio sam tamo i sakupljao podatke za moju tezu.

Now, it's kinda lonely, it's kinda tedious, just collecting data,

Sakupljanje podataka je pomalo samotan i naporan posao,

so I would amuse myself by taking photos at night

pa sam iz zabave često fotografisao

of the telescopes or even of myself,

teleskope ili samog sebe noću,

because, you know, at night, I would be the only hominid

jer sam, tih noći, bio jedino ljudsko biće

within about 30 miles.

u precniku od 48 km.

So here are pictures of myself.

Evo tih mojih fotografija.

The observatory had just acquired a new book,

Upravo smo bili nabavili novu knjigu

written by a Russian cosmologist

ruskog kosmologa

by the name of Joseph Shklovsky, and then expanded

Džozefa Šklofskog, koju je zatim preradio

and translated and edited by a little-known

i preveo manje poznati

Cornell astronomer by the name of Carl Sagan.

astronom sa univerziteta Kornel, Karl Sejgan.

And I remember reading that book,

Sećam se, čitao sam

and at 3 in the morning I was reading this book

tu knjigu u 3 sata jednog ranog jutra

and it was explaining how the antennas I was using

i u njoj je bilo objašnjeno kako se antene koje sam koristio

to measure the spins of galaxies could also be used

za merenje okretanja galaksija mogu koristiti i za

to communicate, to send bits of information

komunikaciju, za slanje informacija

from one star system to another.

od jednog zvezdanog sistema do drugog.

Now, at 3 o'clock in the morning when you're all alone,

U tri sata ujutru, kada ste potpuno sami

haven't had much sleep, that was a very romantic idea,

i neispavani, ova ideja vam se može učiniti jako romantičnom.

but it was that idea -- the fact that you could in fact

Ali sama ideja da se na taj način može dokazati

prove that there's somebody out there

da tamo neko ipak postoji,

just using this same technology --

i to koristeći istu tu tehnologiju -

that appealed to me so much that 20 years later I took a job

to mi se toliko dopalo da sam 20 godina kasnije prihvatio posao

at the SETI Institute. Now, I have to say

na SETI institutu. Moram, ipak priznati

that my memory is notoriously porous, and I've often

da mene sećanje ne služi dobro, pa sam se često

wondered whether there was any truth in this story,

pitao ima li istine u ovoj priči

or I was just, you know, misremembering something,

ili sam je zapravo pogrešno zapamtio.

but I recently just blew up this old negative of mine,

Nedavno sam naišao na ovaj stari negativ na kome se,

and sure enough, there you can see

bez sumnje, može videti

the Shklovsky and Sagan book underneath that

knjiga Šklofskija i Sejgana ispod ovog

analog calculating device.

analognog računara.

So it was true.

All right. Now, the idea for doing this, it wasn't very old

Dakle, istina je.

Dobro. Ideja o prenosu informacija nije bila tako stara

at the time that I made that photo.

u to vreme kada je ova fotografija napravljena.

The idea dates from 1960, when a young astronomer

Ta ideja potiče iz 1960. godine kada je mladi astronom

by the name of Frank Drake used this antenna

Frenk Drejk koristio ovu antenu

in West Virginia, pointed it at a couple of nearby stars

u Zapadnoj Virdžiniji, usmerio je ka bliskim zvezdama

in the hopes of eavesdropping on E.T.

u nadi da će tako moći da prisluškuje vanzemaljce.

Now, Frank didn't hear anything.

Nažalost, Frenk nije čuo ništa.

Actually he did, but it turned out to be the U.S. Air Force,

Zapravo jeste, ali se ispostavilo da ti zvuci dolaze od američkog vazduhoplovstva,

which doesn't count as extraterrestrial intelligence.

koje ne ubrajamo u vanzemaljsku inteligenciju.

But Drake's idea here became very popular

Ali Drejkova ideja je postala jako popularna

because it was very appealing — and I'll get back to that —

jer je bila neodoljivo privlačna, ali ću o tome govoriti nešto kasnije.

and on the basis of this experiment, which didn't succeed,

Na osnovu ovog neuspelog eksperimenta

we have been doing SETI ever since,

od tog trenutka radili smo sa SETI,

not continuously, but ever since.

ne u kontinuitetu, ali od tada.

We still haven't heard anything.

Još uvek nismo ništa čuli.

We still haven't heard anything.

Još uvek nismo ništa čuli.

In fact, we don't know about any life beyond Earth,

Zapravo, ne znamo ništa o postojanju bilo kog oblika života izvan Zemlje,

but I'm going to suggest to you that that's going to change

ali dozvolite mi da kažem da će se to promeniti

rather soon, and part of the reason, in fact,

vrlo skoro. To mogu da tvrdim delimično ili čak,

the majority of the reason why I think that's going to change

potpuno na osnovu činjenice da

is that the equipment's getting better.

oprema brzo napreduje.

This is the Allen Telescope Array, about 350 miles

Ovo je Allen Telescope Array (ATA teleskop), koji se nalazi oko 563 km

from whatever seat you're in right now.

daleko od ove prostorije.

This is something that we're using today

Ovo je tehnika koju danas koristimo

to search for E.T., and the electronics have gotten

u potrazi za vanzemaljskim oblicima života, a elektronika postaje

very much better too.

sve bolja iz dana u dan.

This is Frank Drake's electronics in 1960.

Ovo je elektronika koju je koristio Frenk Drejk 1960. godine.

This is the Allen Telescope Array electronics today.

Ovo je ATA teleskop koji mi koristimo danas.

Some pundit with too much time on his hands

Neki učenjak sa previše slobodnog vremena

has reckoned that the new experiments are approximately

procenio je da su novi eksperimenti

100 trillion times better than they were in 1960,

približno 100 biliona puta bolji nego što su bili 1960.

100 trillion times better.

100 biliona puta bolji.

That's a degree of an improvement that would look good

Ovaj nivo poboljšanja izgleda dobro

on your report card, okay?

u bilo kom izveštaju, zar ne?

But something that's not appreciated by the public is,

Ali javnost nije upoznata sa činjenicom

in fact, that the experiment continues to get better,

da se eksperimenti poboljšavaju

and, consequently, tends to get faster.

i samim tim i ubrzavaju.

This is a little plot, and every time you show a plot,

Ovo je dijagram, a svaki put kada pokažete dijagram,

you lose 10 percent of the audience.

10% publike vas više ne prati.

I have 12 of these. (Laughter)

Imam 12 ovakvih dijagrama. (Smeh)

But what I plotted here is just some metric

Ovo je metrički dijagram

that shows how fast we're searching.

koji pokazuje koliko je brza naša potraga.

In other words, we're looking for a needle in a haystack.

Drugim rečima, mi tražimo iglu u plastu sena.

We know how big the haystack is. It's the galaxy.

Znamo koliko je veliki taj plast sena - to je galaksija.

But we're going through the haystack no longer

Ali, mi za potragu više ne koristimo

with a teaspoon but with a skip loader,

kašicicu već bager

because of this increase in speed.

i to je taj veliki napredak u brzini o kome vam govorim.

In fact, those of you who are still conscious

Oni među vama koji su svesni

and mathematically competent,

i matematički potkovani

will note that this is a semi-log plot.

će primetiti da je ovo semi-logaritamski dijagram.

In other words, the rate of increase is exponential.

Drugim rečima, rast je eksponencijalan.

It's exponentially improving. Now, exponential is an

Eksponencijonalno napreduje. Doduše, reč 'eksponencijalan'

overworked word. You hear it on the media all the time.

je prilično otrcana, svaki dan je čujemo u medijima.

They don't really know what exponential means,

Oni i ne znaju šta je pravo značenje te reči,

but this is exponential.

ali ovo je pravi primer za eksponencijalno.

In fact, it's doubling every 18 months, and, of course,

Zapravo, udvostručuje se svakih 18 meseci,

every card-carrying member of the digerati knows

a svaki vlasnik digerati kartice zna

that that's Moore's Law.

da je to Murov zakon.

So this means that over the course of the next

To znači da ćemo za 24 godine

two dozen years, we'll be able to look at a million star systems,

moći da gledamo milion zvezdanih sistema,

a million star systems, looking for signals

milion zvezdanih sistema i da tragamo za signalima

that would prove somebody's out there.

koji će dokazati da neko tamo postoji.

Well, a million star systems, is that interesting?

Milion zvezdanih sistema - zar to nije interesantno?

I mean, how many of those star systems have planets?

Razmislite, koliko ovih zvezdanih sistema sadrži planete?

And the facts are, we didn't know the answer to that

Činjenica je da nismo znali odgovor na to pitanje

even as recently as 15 years ago, and in fact, we really

pre samo 15 godina i zapravo,

didn't know it even as recently as six months ago.

nismo ga znali ni pre 6 meseci.

But now we do. Recent results suggest

Ali nam je sada poznat. Prema skorašnjim rezultatima

that virtually every star has planets, and more than one.

svaka od zvezda ima svoje planete i to više njih.

They're like, you know, kittens. You get a litter.

Slične su mačićima. Imaju okot.

You don't get one kitten. You get a bunch.

Ne rađaju se pojedinačno, već u grupama.

So in fact, this is a pretty accurate estimate

Znači, ovo je prilično tačna procena

of the number of planets in our galaxy,

broja planeta u nasoj galaksiji;

just in our galaxy, by the way,

samo u našoj galaksiji,

and I remind the non-astronomy majors among you

da podsetim one koji nisu upoznati sa astronomijom -

that our galaxy is only one of 100 billion

naša galaksija je samo jedna od 100 milijardi

that we can see with our telescopes.

koja je vidljiva pomoću teleskopa.

That's a lot of real estate, but of course,

To je ogromna površina, ali naravno,

most of these planets are going to be kind of worthless,

većina ovih planeta je nevažna i beskorisna

like, you know, Mercury, or Neptune.

poput Merkura i Neptuna.

Neptune's probably not very big in your life.

Neptun vam verovatno nije toliko bitan u životu.

So the question is, what fraction of these planets

Pitanje je na koliko ovih planeta

are actually suitable for life?

je moguć život?

We don't know the answer to that either,

Ni na to pitanje ne znamo odgovor,

but we will learn that answer this year, thanks to

ali ćemo ga saznati ove godine zahvaljujući

NASA's Kepler Space Telescope,

NASA-inom Kepler svemirskom teleskopu

and in fact, the smart money, which is to say the people who work on this project,

i ljudima koji ulažu i rade na ovom projektu.

the smart money is suggesting that the fraction of planets

Pretpostavka je da je

that might be suitable for life is maybe one in a thousand,

svaka hiljadita planeta pogodna za život

one in a hundred, something like that.

ili čak svaka stota, tako nešto.

Well, even taking the pessimistic estimate, that it's

Čak i ako uzmemo najnepovoljniju prognozu u obzir, a to je da

one in a thousand, that means that there are

je svaka hiljadita planeta pogodna za život, to bi značilo da postoji

at least a billion cousins of the Earth

najmanje milijarda planeta koje su slične Zemlji

just in our own galaxy.

i to samo u našoj galaksiji.

Okay, now I've given you a lot of numbers here,

U redu. Dao sam vam puno brojki,

but they're mostly big numbers, okay, so, you know,

i to velikih,

keep that in mind. There's plenty of real estate,

mislite o tome. To je puno zemljišta,

plenty of real estate in the universe,

puno zemljišta u kosmosu.

and if we're the only bit of real estate in which there's

Ako je Zemlja jedino zemljište

some interesting occupants, that makes you a miracle,

naseljeno interesantnim stanovništvom - to znači da smo jedno čudo.

and I know you like to think you're a miracle,

Znam da je lepo misliti da smo čudo,

but if you do science, you learn rather quickly that

ali ako bar malo poznajete nauku, znate

every time you think you're a miracle, you're wrong,

da svaki put kada pomislite da ste čudo - grešite.

so probably not the case.

Tako da to verovatno nije slučaj.

All right, so the bottom line is this:

Zaključak je sledeći:

Because of the increase in speed, and because of the

zbog povećanja brzine i zbog

vast amount of habitable real estate in the cosmos, I figure

ogromne količine nenaseljenog zemljišta u kosmosu, procenjujem da

we're going to pick up a signal within two dozen years.

će signal stići do nas u sledeće 24 godine.

And I feel strongly enough about that to make a bet with you:

I verujem u to toliko čvrsto da sam spreman da se opkladim sa vama:

Either we're going to find E.T. in the next two dozen years,

ako ne nađemo vanzemaljce u sledeće 24 godine,

or I'll buy you a cup of coffee.

častiću vas kafom.

So that's not so bad. I mean, even with two dozen years,

To nije tako loše. Ako kroz 24 godine ne naiđete

you open up your browser and there's news of a signal,

na vest koja ovo potvrđuje -

or you get a cup of coffee.

dobijate kafu na moj račun.

Now, let me tell you about some aspect of this that

Sada ću vam govoriti o nečemu o čemu

people don't think about, and that is,

ljudi ne razmišljaju, a to je:

what happens? Suppose that what I say is true.

šta ako se ovo zaista dogodi? Pretpostavimo da sam u pravu.

I mean, who knows, but suppose it happens.

Ko zna, ali, hajde da pretpostavimo da se dogodi -

Suppose some time in the next two dozen years

do nas stigne slabi signal

we pick up a faint line that tells us

koji nam govori

we have some cosmic company.

da nismo sami.

What is the effect? What's the consequence?

Koji efekat bi to proizvelo? Koje bi bile posledice tog saznanja?

Now, I might be at ground zero for this.

Sada, iz ove perspektive, ne bih znao odgovor na to pitanje.

I happen to know what the consequence for me would be,

Znam koje bi to posledice imalo po mene lično,

because we've had false alarms. This is 1997,

jer smo već iskusili lažne uzbune. Ova fotografija je

and this is a photo I made at about 3 o'clock in the morning

iz 1997. godine, nastala u 3 sata ujutru

in Mountain View here, when we were watching

u gradu Mauntin Vju u Kaliforniji, kada smo posmatrali

the computer monitors because we had picked up a signal

kompjuterske monitore jer smo primili signal

that we thought, "This is the real deal." All right?

za koji smo mislili da je autentičan.

And I kept waiting for the Men in Black to show up. Right?

Čekao sam da se pojave "ljudi u crnom".

I kept waiting for -- I kept waiting for my mom to call,

Čekao sam - čekao sam da me majka nazove,

somebody to call, the government to call. Nobody called.

da me neko nazove, da me vlada nazove. Niko nije pozvao.

Nobody called. I was so nervous

Niko nije pozvao. Bio sam toliko nervozan

that I couldn't sit down. I just wandered around

da nisam mogao ni da sedim. Samo sam šetao okolo

taking photos like this one, just for something to do.

i fotografisao, samo da bih radio bilo šta.

Well, at 9:30 in the morning, with my head down

I tako, u 9:30 ujutru, dok mi je glava

on my desk because I obviously hadn't slept all night,

bila na stolu jer nisam spavao celu noć,

the phone rings and it's The New York Times.

telefon je zazvonio i to su bili ljudi iz Njujork Tajmsa.

And I think there's a lesson in that, and that lesson is

Iz tog incidenta sam izvukao zaključak

that if we pick up a signal, the media, the media will be on it

da ako ikada budemo uhvatili taj signal, mediji će nam odmah biti na tragu,

faster than a weasel on ball bearings. It's going to be fast.

brže od vetra. Biće to jako brzo.

You can be sure of that. No secrecy.

U to možete biti sigurni. Nema tajni.

That's what happens to me. It kind of ruins my whole week,

To bi se recimo, desilo meni u tom slučaju. Upropastilo bi mi celu nedelju,

because whatever I've got planned that week is kind of out the window.

jer bi mi svi planovi za tu nedelju bili odloženi do daljnjeg.

But what about you? What's it going to do to you?

Ali šta je sa vama? U kakvu bi situaciju to vas dovelo?

And the answer is that we don't know the answer.

Na to pitanje nemamo odgovor.

We don't know what that's going to do to you,

not in the long term, and not even very much in the short term.

Ne znamo kako bi to uticalo na vas,

dugoročno ni kratkoročno.

I mean, that would be a bit like

To bi bilo kao kada bi pitali

asking Chris Columbus in 1491, "Hey Chris,

Kristofera Kolumba 1491. godine: "Hej, Kris,

you know, what happens if it turns out that there's a

šta bi se dogodilo kad bi saznali da postoji

continent between here and Japan, where you're sailing to,

kontinent između ovog našeg i Japana, tamo gde ti putuješ?

what will be the consequences for humanity

Koje bi bile posledice po čovečanstvo

if that turns out to be the case?"

kada bi se ispostavilo da je tako?"

And I think Chris would probably offer you some answer

Mislim da bi vam Kris dao odgovor

that you might not have understood, but it probably

koji ne biste razumeli i koji verovatno

wouldn't have been right, and I think that to predict

ne bi bio tačan. Mislim da ne možemo

what finding E.T.'s going to mean,

predvideti šta bi nam donelo saznanje

we can't predict that either.

da vanzemaljci zaista postoje.

But here are a couple things I can say.

Ali, ima nekoliko stvari koje vam mogu reći.

To begin with, it's going to be a society that's way in advance of our own.

Prvo, to će sigurno biti društvo koje je isto ili naprednije od našeg.

You're not going to hear from alien Neanderthals.

Jer, vanzemaljci na nivou Neandertalaca nam ne bi mogli ni odgovoriti,

They're not building transmitters.

jer ne poseduju odašiljače.

They're going to be ahead of us, maybe by a few thousand

Biće napredniji od nas, nekoliko hiljada godina

years, maybe by a few millions years, but substantially

ispred, možda čak i nekoliko miliona godina ispred nas, ali sigurno napredniji.

ahead of us, and that means, if you can understand

Znači, ako bismo razumeli

anything that they're going to say, then you might be able

bilo šta što nam oni govore, to bi nam dalo mogućnost

to short-circuit history by getting information from a society

da izmenimo istoriju pomoću informacija koje bismo dobili od društva koje

that's way beyond our own.

je puno ispred našeg.

Now, you might find that a bit hyperbolic, and maybe it is,

Možda vam to deluje preterano, možda i jeste tako,

but nonetheless, it's conceivable that this will happen,

ali uprkos tome, moguće je zamisliti da se to može dogoditi.

and, you know, you could consider this like, I don't know,

To bi bilo kao da recimo,

giving Julius Caesar English lessons and the key

Juliju Cezaru dajete časove engleskog jezika i ključ

to the library of Congress.

Kongresne biblioteke.

It would change his day, all right?

To bi mu izmenilo život, zar ne?

That's one thing. Another thing that's for sure

To je jedno. Druga stvar koja bi se sigurno mogla dogoditi

going to happen is that it will calibrate us.

je da nas to saznanje potpuno izmeni.

We will know that we're not that miracle, right,

Tada bismo zasigurno znali da nismo čudo

that we're just another duck in a row,

već samo jedni u nizu.

we're not the only kids on the block, and I think that that's

Znali bismo da nismo jedini, a to je

philosophically a very profound thing to learn.

duboko filozofsko otkriće.

We're not a miracle, okay?

Nismo nikakvo čudo, u redu?

The third thing that it might tell you is somewhat vague,

Treće, jedna jako bitna i interesantna stvar,

but I think interesting and important,

iako možda nejasna,

and that is, if you find a signal coming from a more

je kada bi do nas došao signal

advanced society, because they will be,

iz naprednijeg društva, što bi oni sigurno bili,

that will tell you something about our own possibilities,

to bi nam otkrilo nešto o našim mogućnostima,

that we're not inevitably doomed to self-destruction.

dalo nam nadu da možda nismo osuđeni na samouništenje.

Because they survived their technology,

Oni su preživeli razvoj svoje tehnologije -

we could do it too.

zašto ne bismo i mi?

Normally when you look out into the universe,

Kada gledate u kosmos

you're looking back in time. All right?

vi zapravo gledate u istoriju, vremenski unazad. Zar ne?

That's interesting to cosmologists.

Ova činjenica je interesantna kosmolozima.

But in this sense, you actually can look into the future,

Ali isto tako možete gledati i u budućnost,

hazily, but you can look into the future.

doduše kroz maglu, ali možete.

So those are all the sorts of things that would come from a detection.

Ovo su neke od posledica koje bi mogle proizići iz saznanja da vanzemaljci postoje.

Now, let me talk a little bit about something that happens

Sada bih vam govorio o nečemu što bi se moglo dogoditi

even in the meantime, and that is,

i u međuvremenu.

SETI, I think, is important, because it's exploration, and

SETI program je važan jer predstavlja istraživanje,

it's not only exploration, it's comprehensible exploration.

i to ne puko istraživanje, već razumljivo istraživanje.

Now, I gotta tell you, I'm always reading books about

Moram vam reći da ja često čitam knjige

explorers. I find exploration very interesting,

o istraživačima. Istraživanje mi je jako zanimljivo.

Arctic exploration, you know, people like Magellan,

Arktička istraživanja, ljudi poput Magelana,

Amundsen, Shackleton, you see Franklin down there,

Amundsena, Šekltona, Frenklina,

Scott, all these guys. It's really nifty, exploration.

Skota i njima slični. Istraživanje je super.

And they're just doing it because they want to explore,

Oni istražuju iz čiste želje za istraživanjem,

and you might say, "Oh, that's kind of a frivolous opportunity,"

pa možete reći: "To je neozbiljno", ali nije neozbiljno.

but that's not frivolous. That's not a frivolous activity,

Istraživanje nije neozbiljna niti bespotrebna aktivnost,

because, I mean, think of ants.

pomislite samo na mrave.

You know, most ants are programmed to follow one another

Mravi su programirani da prate jedan drugog

along in a long line, but there are a couple of ants,

u dugoj koloni. Ali, postoji nekoliko mrava,

maybe one percent of those ants, that are what they call

mozda 1% svih mrava, koji su

pioneer ants, and they're the ones that wander off.

oportunisti koji odlutaju od kolone.

They're the ones you find on the kitchen countertop.

To su oni koje srećete po kuhinji.

You gotta get them with your thumb before they

Pre nego što se dohvate vašeg šećera,

find the sugar or something.

morate ih vi dohvatiti.

But those ants, even though most of them get wiped out,

Ali ti mravi, iako ih većina nastrada,

those ants are the ones that are essential to the survival

su najvažniji za opstanak

of the hive. So exploration is important.

čitave kolonije. Znači, istraživanje je veoma bitno.

I also think that exploration is important in terms of

Takođe smatram da je istraživanje važno

being able to address what I think is a critical

jer može da skrene pažnju na ono što nedostaje našem društvu,

lack in our society, and that is the lack of science literacy,

što je, po mom mišljenju, nedostatak naučne pismenosti,

the lack of the ability to even understand science.

može se čak reći i nedostatak mogućnosti da se nauka shvati.

Now, look, a lot has been written about the

Znam da je već dosta toga napisano

deplorable state of science literacy in this country.

o nezadovoljavajućem nivou naučne pismenosti u ovoj zemlji.

You've heard about it.

Sigurno ste čuli za to.

Well, here's one example, in fact.

Evo jednog primera.

Polls taken, this poll was taken 10 years ago.

Ova anketa je rađena pre 10 godina.

It shows like roughly one third of the public thinks

Pokazuje da približno jedna trećina ispitanika misli

that aliens are not only out there, we're looking for them

da su vanzemaljci,

out there, but they're here, right?

zapravo već tu,

Sailing the skies in their saucers and occasionally

krstare nebom u letećim tanjirima i povremeno

abducting people for experiments their parents wouldn't approve of.

otimaju ljude, na njima vrše eksperimente koje njihovi roditelji ne odobravaju.

Well, that would be interesting if it was true,

To bi bilo interesantno da je istina,

and job security for me, but I don't think the evidence is

a ja bih imao sigurno radno mesto, ali ne mislim da za te tvrdnje

very good. That's more, you know, sad than significant.

postoje dokazi. To je više tužno, nego važno, znate.

But there are other things that people believe

Postoje i druge stvari u koje ljudi veruju,

that are significant, like the efficacy of homeopathy,

kao što je homeopatija

or that evolution is just, you know, sort of a crazy idea

ili da je evolucija samo sumanuta ideja

by scientists without any legs, or, you know, evolution,

naučnika bez nogu

all that sort of thing, or global warming.

i slične stvari, poput globalnog zagrevanja.

These sorts of ideas don't really have any validity,

Ove ideje nemaju

that you can't trust the scientists.

nikakvu naučnu potporu.

Now, we've got to solve that problem, because that's

Taj problem moramo rešiti, jer je on

a critically important problem, and you might say,

od kritičkog značaja, pa se možemo pitati:

"Well, okay, how are we gonna solve that problem with SETI?"

"U redu, kako ćemo rešiti taj problem sa SETI-jem?"

Well, let me suggest to you that SETI obviously can't

Moram vam reći da SETI očigledno ne može rešiti taj problem,

solve the problem, but it can address the problem.

ali može da skrene pažnju na njega.

It can address the problem by getting young people

Može zainteresovati mlade

interested in science. Look, science is hard, it

za nauku. Znate, nauka je teška,

has a reputation of being hard, and the facts are, it is hard,

ima takvu reputaciju, to je činjenica,

and that's the result of 400 years of science, right?

a to je posledica 400 godina nauke, zar ne?

I mean, in the 18th century, in the 18th century

U 18. veku

you could become an expert on any field of science

ste mogli postati ekspert na bilo kom polju nauke

in an afternoon by going to a library,

tokom samo jednog popodneva u biblioteci -

if you could find the library, right?

pod uslovom da nađete biblioteku, zar ne?

In the 19th century, if you had a basement lab,

Ako ste imali laboratoriju u podrumu u 19. veku

you could make major scientific discoveries

mogli ste da dođete do ogromnih naučnih otkrića.

in your own home. Right? Because there was all this

Zar ne? Jer je tada bilo toliko neotkrivenih stvari koje su

science just lying around waiting for somebody to pick it up.

samo čekale na naučnike koji će ih otkriti.

Now, that's not true anymore.

Sada to više nije tako.

Today, you've got to spend years in grad school

Danas moramo da se školujemo godinama,

and post-doc positions just to figure out what

i nakon toga da doktoriramo da bi samo

the important questions are.

saznali koja su to goruća naučna pitanja.

It's hard. There's no doubt about it.

Teško je, nema sumnje.

And in fact, here's an example: the Higgs boson,

Evo primera: Higsov bozon,

finding the Higgs boson.

otkriće Higsovog bozona.

Ask the next 10 people you see on the streets,

Samo upitajte 10 slučajnih prolaznika na ulici:

"Hey, do you think it's worthwhile to spend billions

"Hej, mislite li da je vredno trošiti milijarde švajcarskih

of Swiss francs looking for the Higgs boson?"

franaka u potrazi za Higsovim bozonom?"

And I bet the answer you're going to get, is,

i mislim da biste dobili sledeći odgovor:

"Well, I don't know what the Higgs boson is,

"Ne znam šta je Higsov bozon

and I don't know if it's important."

i ne znam da li je uopšte bitan."

And probably most of the people wouldn't even know

Verujem da većina tih ljudi ne bi znala

the value of a Swiss franc, okay?

ni vrednost švajcarskog franka.

And yet we're spending billions of Swiss francs on this problem.

Uprkos tome, mi trošimo milijarde švajcarskih franaka na ovo otkriće.

Okay? So that doesn't get people interested in science

Ljudi se zbog toga ne interesuju za nauku

because they can't comprehend what it's about.

jer ne shvataju o čemu je reč.

SETI, on the other hand, is really simple.

Nasuprot tome, SETI je jako jednostavan.

We're going to use these big antennas and we're going to

Koristićemo velike antene

try to eavesdrop on signals. Everybody can understand that.

i osluškivaćemo signale. Svi to mogu da razumeju.

Yes, technologically, it's very sophisticated,

Tačno je da je sofisticirana tehnologija u pitanju,

but everybody gets the idea.

ali svako može da zna o čemu je reč.

So that's one thing. The other thing is, it's exciting science.

To je jedno. Drugo, to je uzbudjiva strana nauke

It's exciting because we're naturally interested

zato što smo prirodno zainteresovani

in other intelligent beings, and I think that's

za druge oblike inteligentnog života i mislim

part of our hardwiring.

da smo programirani da razmišljamo na taj način.

I mean, we're hardwired to be interested

Programirani smo da nas interesuju

in beings that might be, if you will, competitors,

bića koja bi mogla biti naši rivali

or if you're the romantic sort, possibly even mates. Okay?

ili ako ste romantični, naši partneri.

I mean, this is analogous to our interest in things that

To je slično našem interesovanju za stvari koje

have big teeth. Right?

imaju velike zube, zar ne?

We're interested in things that have big teeth, and you

Zanimaju nas stvari koje imaju velike zube

can see the evolutionary value of that, and you can also see

i to je uslovljeno evolucijom, gledajući Animal Planet možete videti

the practical consequences by watching Animal Planet.

i praktične posledice tog interesovanja.

You notice they make very few programs about gerbils.

Primetićete da ne prave puno emisija o zamorcima,

It's mostly about things that have big teeth.

već uglavnom o životinjama koje imaju velike zube.

Okay, so we're interested in these sorts of things.

Zanimaju nas takve stvari.

And not just us. It's also kids.

I ne samo nas. Zanimaju i decu.

This allows you to pay it forward by using this subject as a

Ovo saznanje nam omogućava da ovom temom

hook to science, because SETI involves all kinds of science,

privučemo ljude nauci, jer SETI program sadrži sve grane nauke:

obviously biology, obviously astronomy,

biologiju, astronomiju,

but also geology, also chemistry, various scientific

ali i geologiju i hemiju. Mnoge naučne

disciplines all can be presented in the guise of,

discipline se mogu promovisati pomoću rečenice:

"We're looking for E.T."

"Mi tragamo za vanzemaljkskim oblicima života."

So to me this is interesting and important, and in fact,

Meni je ovo jako interesantno i važno, jer sam primetio

it's my policy, even though I give a lot of talks to adults,

da kada držim predavanja odraslima

you give talks to adults, and two days later they're back where they were.

kroz par dana su na istom nivou znanja na kome su bili pre predavanja.

But if you give talks to kids, you know,

Ali, kada držim predavanja deci, znate,

one in 50 of them, some light bulb goes off, and they think,

bar jednom od pedeset se rodi neka ideja i pomisle:

"Gee, I'd never thought of that," and then they go,

"Bože, nikada mi ovo nije palo na pamet." Kada odu, onda

you know, read a book or a magazine or whatever.

čitaju knjige, časopise, bilo šta na tu temu.

They get interested in something.

Njih nešto zaista može da zainteresuje.

Now it's my theory, supported only by anecdotal,

Doduše, ovo je moja lična teorija izvedena

personal anecdotal evidence, but nonetheless,

iz ličnog iskustva, ali ipak,

that kids get interested in something between the ages

u toj deci se rodi interesovanje za nešto u uzrastu između

of eight and 11. You've got to get them there.

osme i jedanaeste godine. Morate im se tada obratiti.

So, all right, I give talks to adults, that's fine, but I try

Ja i dalje držim predavanja odraslima i to je u redu, ali se trudim

and make 10 percent of the talks that I give,

da bar 10% od svih mojih predavanja budu

I try and make those for kids.

za decu.

I remember when a guy came to our high school, actually,

Sećam se kada sam išao u srednju školu i jedan čovek je došao u našu školu.

it was actually my junior high school. I was in sixth grade.

Bio sam tada u šestom razredu.

And he gave some talk. All I remember from it

Taj čovek nam je držao predavanje. Jedina reč koje se sećam iz tog celog

was one word: electronics.

predavanja je bila: elektronika.

It was like Dustin Hoffman in "The Graduate," right,

Bilo je kao u filmu sa Dastinom Hofmanom, "Diplomac"

when he said "plastics," whatever that means, plastics.

kada on kaže "plastika", šta god to značilo - plastika.

All right, so the guy said electronics. I don't remember

Taj čovek je rekao ''elektronika.'' Ne sećam se ničega više

anything else. In fact, I don't remember anything

od te reči. Zapravo, ne sećam se ničega

that my sixth grade teacher said all year,

što je moj učitelj predavao cele godine,

but I remember electronics.

ali se jasno sećam elektronike.

And so I got interested in electronics, and you know,

Tako sam se zainteresovao za elektroniku, pa sam

I studied to get my ham license. I was wiring up stuff.

tako i učio za svoju amatersku radio licencu. Prespajao sam žice i kablove.

Here I am at about 15 or something, doing that sort of stuff.

Imao sam 15 godina i bavio se takvim stvarima.

Okay? That had a big effect on me.

Taj događaj je jako uticao na mene.

So that's my point, that you can have a big effect

To je ono na šta sam želeo da vam skrenem pažnju -

on these kids.

mi možemo uticati na tu decu.

In fact, this reminds me, I don't know, a couple years ago

Ovo me je podsetilo na to kada sam pre par godina

I gave a talk at a school in Palo Alto

držao predavanje u školi u Palo Altu

where there were about a dozen 11-year-olds

pred oko 12 jedanaestogodisnjaka

that had come to this talk.

koji su došli da me slušaju.

I had been brought in to talk to these kids for an hour.

Moje predavanje je trajalo oko sat vremena.

Eleven-year-olds, they're all sitting in a little semi-circle

Jedanaestogodišnjaci sede u polukrugu

looking up at me with big eyes, and I started,

i gledaju me široko otvorenih očiju i ja počinjem svoje predavanje.

there was a white board behind me, and I started off

Tabla je bila iza mene i na njoj sam napisao

by writing a one with 22 zeroes after it, and I said,

jedinicu i 22 nule iza nje i rekao im:

"All right, now look, this is the number of stars

"Gledajte, ovo je broj zvezda

in the visible universe, and this number is so big

u vidljivom delu svemira i taj broj je toliko veliki

there's not even a name for it."

da za njega čak ni ime ne postoji."

And one of these kids shot up his hand, and he said,

Jedno dete je diglo ruku i reklo:

"Well, actually there is a name for it.

"U stvari, ime za taj broj postoji.

It's a sextra-quadra-hexa-something or other." Right?

Zove se sekstra-kvadra-heksa nešto ili nekako drugačije."

Now, that kid was wrong by four orders of magnitude,

Dete je pogrešilo za četiri reda veličine,

but there was no doubt about it, these kids were smart.

ali nije bilo sumnje - ova deca su pametna.

Okay? So I stopped giving the lecture.

Prekinuo sam predavanje.

All they wanted to do was ask questions.

Oni su samo želeli da postavljaju pitanja.

In fact, my last comments to these kids, at the end I said,

Na kraju sam rekao ovoj deci:

"You know, you kids are smarter

"Znate, deco, vi ste pametniji

than the people I work with." Now — (Laughter)

od ljudi sa kojima radim." (Smeh)

They didn't even care about that.

Njih nije ni bilo briga za to.

What they wanted was my email address

Sve sto su mi tražili je bila moja imejl adresa

so they could ask me more questions. (Laughter)

kako bi mogli da mi postavljaju još pitanja. (Smeh)

Let me just say, look, my job is a privilege

Još bih dodao da smatram da je moj posao privilegija

because we're in a special time.

jer živimo u posebnom dobu.

Previous generations couldn't do this experiment at all.

Prethodne generacije nisu nikako mogle da vrše ovaj eksperiment.

In another generation down the line,

Sledeća generacija nakon naše

I think we will have succeeded.

će sigurno uspeti.

So to me, it is a privilege, and when I look in the mirror,

To je za mene privilegija. Kada se pogledam u ogledalo

the facts are that I really don't see myself.

ja zapravo ne vidim sebe.

What I see is the generation behind me.

Vidim buduću generaciju.

These are some kids from the Huff School, fourth graders.

Vidim decu iz četvrtog razreda škole Haf

I talked there, what, two weeks ago, something like that.

kojima sam držao predavanje pre dve nedelje.

I think that if you can instill some interest in science

Mislim da će nam nagrada tek doći ako uspemo

and how it works, well, that's a payoff

da u toj deci probudimo interesovanje za nauku

beyond easy measure. Thank you very much.

i način na koji ona funkcioniše. Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)