Don't fear intelligent machines. Work with them | Garry Kasparov

Translator: Crtomir Erzen Reviewer: Matej Divjak

This story begins in 1985,

Zgodba se začne leta 1985,

when at age 22,

ko sem pri 22 letih

I became the World Chess Champion

postal Svetovni šahovski prvak,

after beating Anatoly Karpov.

s tem ko sem premagal Anatolija Karpova.

Earlier that year,

Prej tega leta,

I played what is called simultaneous exhibition

sem igral tako imenovano ekshibicijsko simultanko

against 32 of the world's best chess-playing machines

proti 32 najboljšim strojem za igranje šaha na svetu

in Hamburg, Germany.

v nemškem Hamburgu.

I won all the games,

Zmagal sem vse igre

and then it was not considered much of a surprise

in tedaj ni bilo prav veliko presenečenje,

that I could beat 32 computers at the same time.

da sem lahko hkrati premagal 32 računalnikov.

To me, that was the golden age.

Zame je bila to zlata doba.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Machines were weak,

Stroji so bili šibki

and my hair was strong.

in moji lasje so bili močni.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Just 12 years later,

Samo 12 let kasneje

I was fighting for my life against just one computer

sem se boril za svoje življenje proti samo enemu računalniku

in a match

v dvoboju,

called by the cover of "Newsweek"

ki so ga na naslovnici tednika "Newsweek"

"The Brain's Last Stand."

poimenovali "Zadnja utrdba možganov."

No pressure.

Nobenega pritiska.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

From mythology to science fiction,

Od mitologije do znanstvene fantastike

human versus machine

je bil boj med strojem in človekom

has been often portrayed as a matter of life and death.

pogosto prikazan kot boj za življenje ali smrt.

John Henry,

John Henry,

called the steel-driving man

človek, ki je z jeklom vrtal luknje

in the 19th century African American folk legend,

v afriško-ameriški ljudski legendi iz 19. stoletja,

was pitted in a race

je tekmoval proti

against a steam-powered hammer

parno gnanemu kladivu

bashing a tunnel through mountain rock.

v kopanju tunela skozi kamnito goro.

John Henry's legend is a part of a long historical narrative

Legenda o Johnu Henryju je del dolgega zgodovinskega nareka,

pitting humanity versus technology.

ki podpihuje boj človeka s tehnologijo.

And this competitive rhetoric is standard now.

In ta tekmovalna retorika je sedaj čisto normalna.

We are in a race against the machines,

Nahajamo se v tekmi proti strojem,

in a fight or even in a war.

v boju, če ne celo vojni.

Jobs are being killed off.

Ukinjajo se službe.

People are being replaced as if they had vanished from the Earth.

Ljudi se menja, kot da bi izginili iz obličja Zemlje.

It's enough to think that the movies like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix"

Dovolj je že razmišljati o tem, da filmi kot so "Terminator" ali "Matrica"

are nonfiction.

niso izmišljeni.

There are very few instances of an arena

Obstaja zelo malo področij,

where the human body and mind can compete on equal terms

kjer lahko človeško telo in možgani tekmujejo pod enakimi pogoji

with a computer or a robot.

proti računalniku ali robotu.

Actually, I wish there were a few more.

Pravzaprav, želim si, da bi jih bilo več.

Instead,

Namesto tega

it was my blessing and my curse

je bil moj privilegij in moje prekletstvo,

to literally become the proverbial man

da sem dejansko postal pregovorna oseba

in the man versus machine competition

v boju med človekom in strojem,

that everybody is still talking about.

o katerem še danes vsi govorijo.

In the most famous human-machine competition since John Henry,

V najbolj slavnem tekmovanju med človekom in strojem od Johna Henryja dalje,

I played two matches

sem igral dva dvoboja

against the IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue.

proti IBM-ovem super-računalniku, Deep Blue.

Nobody remembers that I won the first match --

Nihče se ne spomni, da sem zmagal v prvem dvoboju -

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplavz)

In Philadelphia, before losing the rematch the following year in New York.

v Filadelfiji, preden sem naslednje leto izgubil revanšo v New Yorku.

But I guess that's fair.

Ampak verjetno je to pošteno.

There is no day in history, special calendar entry

Ne obstaja dan v zgodovini, poseben praznik na koledarju

for all the people who failed to climb Mt. Everest

za vse ljudi, ki niso priplezali na Mt. Everest,

before Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay

preden Sir Edmund Hillary in Tenzing Norgay

made it to the top.

nista osvojila vrha.

And in 1997, I was still the world champion

In leta 1997 sem bil še vedno svetovni prvak,

when chess computers finally came of age.

ko so šahovski računalniki končno odrasli.

I was Mt. Everest,

Jaz sem bil Mt. Everest

and Deep Blue reached the summit.

in Deep Blue se je povzpel na vrh.

I should say of course, not that Deep Blue did it,

Moral bi seveda reči, da ni bil Deep Blue tisti,

but its human creators --

ampak njegovi človeški stvaritelji -

Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu.

Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu.

Hats off to them.

Kapo dol pred njimi.

As always, machine's triumph was a human triumph,

Kot vedno, strojeva zmaga je bila človeška zmaga,

something we tend to forget when humans are surpassed by our own creations.

nekaj, kar radi pozabljamo, ko ljudi prehitijo njihove lastne kreacije.

Deep Blue was victorious,

Deep Blue je zmagal,

but was it intelligent?

pa je bil inteligenten?

No, no it wasn't,

Ne, ni bil,

at least not in the way Alan Turing and other founders of computer science

vsaj ne na način kot so upali Alan Turing in drugi ustanovitelji računalništva.

had hoped.

It turned out that chess could be crunched by brute force,

Izkazalo se je, da je mogoče šah obvladati s surovo močjo,

once hardware got fast enough

ko je enkrat strojna oprema postala dovolj hitra

and algorithms got smart enough.

in so algoritmi postali dovolj pametni.

Although by the definition of the output,

Vendar po definiciji rezultata,

grandmaster-level chess,

šahovski velemojster,

Deep Blue was intelligent.

je bil Deep Blue inteligenten.

But even at the incredible speed,

Ampak celo pri neverjetni hitrosti,

200 million positions per second,

200 milijonov pozicij na sekundo,

Deep Blue's method

je njegova metoda

provided little of the dreamed-of insight into the mysteries of human intelligence.

zelo malo prispevala k vpogledu v skrivnosti človeške inteligence.

Soon,

Kmalu

machines will be taxi drivers

bodo stroji postali taksisti

and doctors and professors,

in zdravniki in profesorji,

but will they be "intelligent?"

ampak ali bodo "inteligentni?"

I would rather leave these definitions

Te definicije bi raje prepustil

to the philosophers and to the dictionary.

filozofom in slovarju.

What really matters is how we humans

Kar je resnično pomembno, je, kako se mi ljudje

feel about living and working with these machines.

počutimo ob bivanju in delu skupaj s temi stroji.

When I first met Deep Blue in 1996 in February,

Ko sem prvič spoznal Deep Blue, februarja leta 1996,

I had been the world champion for more than 10 years,

sem bil svetovni prvak že več kot 10 let,

and I had played 182 world championship games

odigral sem 182 iger za svetovno prvenstvo

and hundreds of games against other top players in other competitions.

in stotine iger proti drugim velemojstrom v drugih tekmovanjih.

I knew what to expect from my opponents

Vedel sem, kaj pričakovati od svojih nasprotnikov

and what to expect from myself.

in kaj pričakovati od sebe.

I was used to measure their moves

Navajen sem bil vrednotiti njihove poteze

and to gauge their emotional state

in ocenjevati njihovo čustveno stanje

by watching their body language and looking into their eyes.

z opazovanjem njihove telesne govorice in gledanjem v njihove oči.

And then I sat across the chessboard from Deep Blue.

In potem sem sedel za šahovnico nasproti Deep Blue.

I immediately sensed something new,

Takoj sem zaznal nekaj novega,

something unsettling.

nekaj vznemirjajočega.

You might experience a similar feeling

Nekaj podobnega lahko doživite,

the first time you ride in a driverless car

ko se prvič peljete v avtu brez voznika,

or the first time your new computer manager issues an order at work.

ali ko vaš računalniški delovodja prvič izda delovni nalog.

But when I sat at that first game,

Ampak ko sem sedel k tej prvi igri,

I couldn't be sure

nisem mogel biti prepričan,

what is this thing capable of.

česa je ta stvar zmožna.

Technology can advance in leaps, and IBM had invested heavily.

Tehnologija se lahko razvija v skokih in IBM je veliko vložil.

I lost that game.

Izgubil sem to igro.

And I couldn't help wondering,

In neizbežno sem se spraševal,

might it be invincible?

je možno, da je nepremagljiv?

Was my beloved game of chess over?

Pomeni to konec za mojo ljubo igro šaha?

These were human doubts, human fears,

Porajala se mi je človeška negotovost, človeški strah,

and the only thing I knew for sure

in edina stvar, o kateri sem bil prepričan,

was that my opponent Deep Blue had no such worries at all.

je bila, da moj nasprotnik Deep Blue nima takih skrbi.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I fought back

Boril sem se nazaj

after this devastating blow

po tem uničujočem udarcu,

to win the first match,

da bi zmagal prvo igro,

but the writing was on the wall.

ampak rezultat je bil že znan.

I eventually lost to the machine

Na koncu sem izgubil proti stroju,

but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry

ampak ni me doletela usoda Johna Henryja,

who won but died with his hammer in his hand.

ki je zmagal, a umrl s kladivom v roki.

[John Henry Died with a Hammer in His Hand Palmer C. Hayden]

[The Museum of African American Art, Los Angeles]

It turned out that the world of chess

Izkazalo se je, da je svet šaha

still wanted to have a human chess champion.

še vedno želel imeti človeškega prvaka.

And even today,

In celo danes,

when a free chess app on the latest mobile phone

ko je brezplačna aplikacija na najnovejšem mobilniku

is stronger than Deep Blue,

močnejša od Deep Blue,

people are still playing chess,

ljudje še vedno igrajo šah,

even more than ever before.

in celo več kot kdajkoli prej.

Doomsayers predicted that nobody would touch the game

Ciniki so napovedali, da se igre po tem ne bo nihče več dotaknil,

that could be conquered by the machine,

ko jo bo lahko osvojil stroj,

and they were wrong, proven wrong,

a motili so se, dokazano motili,

but doomsaying has always been a popular pastime

a napovedovanje konca je bilo vedno popularen hobi,

when it comes to technology.

ko govorimo o tehnologiji.

What I learned from my own experience

Iz svoje izkušnje sem se naučil,

is that we must face our fears

da se moramo soočiti s svojimi strahovi,

if we want to get the most out of our technology,

če želimo kar najbolje izkoristiti našo tehnologijo,

and we must conquer those fears

in te strahove moramo premagati,

if we want to get the best out of our humanity.

če želimo kar najbolje izkoristiti našo humanost.

While licking my wounds,

Med tem ko sem si lizal rane,

I got a lot of inspiration

sem dobil veliko navdiha

from my battles against Deep Blue.

iz mojih bojev proti Deep Blue.

As the old Russian saying goes, if you can't beat them, join them.

Kot pravi stari ruski pregovor, če jih ne moreš premagati, se jim pridruži.

Then I thought,

Potem sem pomislil,

what if I could play with a computer --

kaj če bi lahko igral skupaj z računalnikom -

together with a computer at my side, combining our strengths,

z njim ob mojem boku, z združenimi močmi,

human intuition plus machine's calculation,

človeška intuicija in strojna kalkulacija,

human strategy, machine tactics,

človeška strategija, strojna taktika,

human experience, machine's memory.

človeške izkušnje, strojni spomin.

Could it be the perfect game ever played?

Bi lahko odigrala popolno igro?

My idea came to life

Moja ideja se je uresničila

in 1998 under the name of Advanced Chess

leta 1998 pod imenom Napredni šah,

when I played this human-plus-machine competition against another elite player.

ko sem igral kot človek-plus-stroj proti drugemu elitnemu igralcu.

But in this first experiment,

Vendar v tem prvem eksperimentu,

we both failed to combine human and machine skills effectively.

je obema spodletelo učinkovito združiti človeške in strojne spretnosti.

Advanced Chess found its home on the internet,

Napredni šah je našel svoj dom na internetu

and in 2005, a so-called freestyle chess tournament

in leta 2005 je tako imenovani freestyle šahovski turnir

produced a revelation.

prinesel razodetje.

A team of grandmasters and top machines participated,

Ekipa velemojstrov in najboljših strojev je sodelovala na njem,

but the winners were not grandmasters,

vendar zmagovalci niso bili velemojstri,

not a supercomputer.

niti super-računalnik.

The winners were a pair of amateur American chess players

Zmagovalca sta bila dva Ameriška amaterska igralca šaha,

operating three ordinary PCs at the same time.

ki sta delala s tremi navadnimi osebnimi računalniki naenkrat.

Their skill of coaching their machines

Njuna spretnost, kako učiti njune stroje,

effectively counteracted the superior chess knowledge

je dejansko prevladala nad superiornim znanjem šaha

of their grandmaster opponents

njunih velemojstrskih nasprotnikov

and much greater computational power of others.

in veliko večjo računsko močjo drugih.

And I reached this formulation.

In prišel sem do sledeče formulacije.

A weak human player plus a machine

Šibak človeški igralec plus stroj

plus a better process is superior

plus boljši proces je močnejši

to a very powerful machine alone,

od samostojnega zelo močnega stroja,

but more remarkably, is superior to a strong human player

a še bolj neverjetno, je močnejši od močnega človeškega igralca

plus machine

plus stroj

and an inferior process.

in slabšega procesa.

This convinced me that we would need

To me je prepričalo, da bomo potrebovali

better interfaces to help us coach our machines

boljše vmesnike, s katerimi bomo učili naše stroje

towards more useful intelligence.

za dosego bolj uporabne inteligence.

Human plus machine isn't the future,

Človek plus stroj ni prihodnost,

it's the present.

to je sedanjost.

Everybody that's used online translation

Vsak, ki je uporabil spletni prevajalnik,

to get the gist of a news article from a foreign newspaper,

da bi izluščil, kaj piše v časopisnem članku iz tujega časopisa,

knowing its far from perfect.

vedoč, da je daleč od popolnega.

Then we use our human experience

Potem uporabimo človeške izkušnje,

to make sense out of that,

da stvari povežemo v smisel

and then the machine learns from our corrections.

in potem se stroj uči iz naših popravkov.

This model is spreading and investing in medical diagnosis, security analysis.

Ta model se širi v medicinsko diagnostiko, varnostno analitiko.

The machine crunches data,

Stroj melje podatke,

calculates probabilities,

izračunava verjetnosti,

gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent,

opravi delo do 80 %, 90 %,

making it easier for analysis

olajša analizo

and decision-making of the human party.

in odločanje človeškemu sodelavcu.

But you are not going to send your kids

Ampak svojih otrok ne boste poslali v šolo

to school in a self-driving car with 90 percent accuracy,

s samovozečim avtomobilom, ki je 90 odstotkov natančen,

even with 99 percent.

ali celo 99 odstotkov.

So we need a leap forward

Zato potrebujemo skok naprej,

to add a few more crucial decimal places.

da dodamo še nekaj ključnih decimalk.

Twenty years after my match with Deep Blue,

Dvajset let po mojem obračunu z Deep Blue,

second match,

drugem obračunu,

this sensational "The Brain's Last Stand" headline

je naslovnica "Zadnja utrdba možganov"

has become commonplace

postala nekaj vsakdanjega,

as intelligent machines

ko inteligentni stroji vdirajo

move

in every sector, seemingly every day.

v vse sektorje, praktično vsak dan.

But unlike in the past,

Vendar v nasprotju z zgodovino,

when machines replaced

ko so stroji zamenjali

farm animals, manual labor,

domače živali, ročno delo,

now they are coming after people with college degrees

se sedaj lotevajo ljudi z univerzitetno izobrazbo

and political influence.

in političnim vplivom.

In kot nekdo, ki se je boril proti strojem in izgubil,

And as someone who fought machines and lost,

I am here to tell you this is excellent, excellent news.

sem tu, da vam povem, da je to odlična, odlična novica.

Eventually, every profession

Sčasoma bo vsak poklic

will have to feel these pressures

občutil ta pritisk,

or else it will mean humanity has ceased to make progress.

v nasprotnem primeru pomeni, da je človeštvo prenehalo napredovati.

We don't

Nimamo

get to choose

vpliva na to,

when and where technological progress stops.

kdaj in kje se tehnološki napredek ustavi.

We cannot

Ne moremo

slow down.

ga upočasniti.

In fact,

Pravzaprav

we have to speed up.

ga moramo pospešiti.

Our technology excels at removing

Naša tehnologija blesti pri zmanjševanju

difficulties and uncertainties from our lives,

težavnosti in negotovosti v naših življenjih,

and so we must seek out

zato moramo poiskati

ever more difficult,

še bolj zahtevne,

ever more uncertain challenges.

še bolj tvegane izzive.

Machines have

Stroji imajo

calculations.

kalkulacije.

We have understanding.

Mi imamo razumevanje.

Machines have instructions.

Stroji imajo navodila.

We have purpose.

Mi imamo namen.

Machines have

Stroji imajo

objectivity.

objektivnost.

We have passion.

Mi imamo strast.

We should not worry about what our machines can do today.

Ne sme nas skrbeti, kaj lahko naši stroji naredijo danes.

Instead, we should worry about what they still cannot do today,

Namesto tega nas mora skrbeti, česa danes še ne zmorejo narediti,

because we will need the help of the new, intelligent machines

ker bomo potrebovali pomoč novih, inteligentnih strojev,

to turn our grandest dreams into reality.

da uresničimo naše največje sanje.

And if we fail,

In če nam spodleti,

if we fail, it's not because our machines are too intelligent,

če nam spodleti, nam ne bo zato, ker so naši stroji preveč pametni,

or not intelligent enough.

ali ker niso dovolj pametni.

If we fail, it's because we grew complacent

Če nam spodleti, bo to zato, ker smo postali samozadovoljni

and limited our ambitions.

in omejili naše ambicije.

Our humanity is not defined by any skill,

Naša človeškost ni definirana s katerokoli veščino,

like swinging a hammer or even playing chess.

kot je vihtenje kladiva ali celo igranje šaha.

There's one thing only a human can do.

Le eno stvar lahko naredi le človek.

That's dream.

Da sanja.

So let us dream big.

Torej sanjajmo velike sanje.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplavz)