Don't fear intelligent machines. Work with them | Garry Kasparov

Prevoditelj: Ivan Stamenković Recezent: TED Translators admin

This story begins in 1985,

Priča počinje 1985.,

when at age 22,

kada sam sa 22 godine,

I became the World Chess Champion

postao svjetski prvak u šahu

after beating Anatoly Karpov.

nakon što sam pobijedio Anatolya Karpova.

Earlier that year,

Ranije te godine,

I played what is called simultaneous exhibition

igrao sam nešto što se zove simultanka

against 32 of the world's best chess-playing machines

protiv 32 najbolja stroja na svijetu koji igraju šah

in Hamburg, Germany.

u Hamburgu, Njemačkoj.

Pobijedio sam,

I won all the games,

and then it was not considered much of a surprise

i tada to nije bilo neko iznenađenje

that I could beat 32 computers at the same time.

da sam uspio pobijediti 32 računala u isto vrijeme.

To me, that was the golden age.

Za mene, to je bilo zlatno doba.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

Machines were weak,

Strojevi su bili slabi,

and my hair was strong.

a moja kosa bila je jaka.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

Just 12 years later,

Samo 12 godina kasnije,

I was fighting for my life against just one computer

borio sam se za život protiv samo jednog računala

in a match

u partiji

called by the cover of "Newsweek"

koje prema naslovnici "Newsweeka"

"The Brain's Last Stand."

bila "Posljednje uporište mozga."

No pressure.

Bez pritiska.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Od mitologije do znanstvene fantastike,

From mythology to science fiction,

human versus machine

borba čovjeka protiv stroja

has been often portrayed as a matter of life and death.

prikazivana je kao stvar života i smrti.

John Henry,

John Henry,

called the steel-driving man

čovjek poznat kao tjerač čelika

in the 19th century African American folk legend,

u 19. stoljeću Afro Američka narodna legenda,

stavljen je u utrku

was pitted in a race

against a steam-powered hammer

protiv čekića pogonjenog parnim strojem

bashing a tunnel through mountain rock.

probijajući tunel kroz planinsku stijenu.

John Henry's legend is a part of a long historical narrative

Legenda Johna Henrya je dio dugog povijesnog narativa

pitting humanity versus technology.

koji stavlja čovječanstvo protiv strojeva.

And this competitive rhetoric is standard now.

I ta natjecateljska retorika je sada standardna.

We are in a race against the machines,

U utrci smo protiv strojeva,

in a fight or even in a war.

u borbi ili čak i ratu.

Jobs are being killed off.

Poslovi nestaju.

People are being replaced as if they had vanished from the Earth.

Ljude zamjenjuju kao da su nestali s lica Zemlje.

It's enough to think that the movies like "The Terminator" or "The Matrix"

Dovoljno je pomisliti na to da filmovi poput "Terminatora" ili "Matrixa"

are nonfiction.

nisu fikcija.

There are very few instances of an arena

Postoji samo nekoliko područja u areni

where the human body and mind can compete on equal terms

gdje se ljudski tijelo i um mogu natjecati pod istim uvjetima

with a computer or a robot.

sa računalom ili robotom.

Actually, I wish there were a few more.

Zapravo, volio bih da ih ima više.

Instead,

Umjesto toga,

it was my blessing and my curse

moj blagoslov i prokletstvo

to literally become the proverbial man

bilo je postati čovjekom

in the man versus machine competition

u natjecanju između čovjeka i stroja

that everybody is still talking about.

o kojem svi još uvijek pričaju.

U najslavnijem srazu čovjeka i stroja od doba Johna Henrya,

In the most famous human-machine competition since John Henry,

odigrao sam dvije partije

I played two matches

against the IBM supercomputer, Deep Blue.

protiv IBM superračunala, Deep Blue.

Ali ne sjećate se da sam prvi put pobijedio --

Nobody remembers that I won the first match --

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

In Philadelphia, before losing the rematch the following year in New York.

U Philadelphiji, prije nego sam izgubio revanš sljedeće godine u New Yorku.

But I guess that's fair.

Ali mislim da je to pošteno.

There is no day in history, special calendar entry

Ne postoji dan u povijesti, poseban unos na kalendaru

for all the people who failed to climb Mt. Everest

za sve ljude koji se nisu uspeli na Mt. Everest

before Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay

prije nego su Sir Edmund Hillary i Tenzing Norgay

made it to the top.

došli do vrha.

And in 1997, I was still the world champion

A 1997., ja sam i dalje bio svjetski prvak

when chess computers finally came of age.

kada su računala za šah sazrijela.

I was Mt. Everest,

Bio sam Mt. Everest,

and Deep Blue reached the summit.

i Deep Blue je došao do vrha.

I should say of course, not that Deep Blue did it,

Trebao bih naravno reći, ne da je Deep Blue to postigao,

but its human creators --

već njegovi ljudski tvorci --

Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu.

Anantharaman, Campbell, Hoane, Hsu.

Hats off to them.

Skidam im kapu.

As always, machine's triumph was a human triumph,

Kao i uvijek, uspjeh stroja bio je ljudski uspjeh,

something we tend to forget when humans are surpassed by our own creations.

nešto što često zaboravljamo kada ljude prestignu vlastite kreacije.

Deep Blue was victorious,

Deep Blue je pobijedio,

but was it intelligent?

ali da li je bio inteligentan?

No, no it wasn't,

Ne, nije,

at least not in the way Alan Turing and other founders of computer science

bar ne onako kako su Alan Turing i osnivači znanosti o računalima

had hoped.

se nadali.

It turned out that chess could be crunched by brute force,

Ispalo je da se šah može računati silom,

jednom kada je hardware postao dovoljno brz

once hardware got fast enough

and algorithms got smart enough.

i algoritmi dovoljno pametni.

Although by the definition of the output,

Iako po definiciji rezultata,

grandmaster-level chess,

velemajstorska razina šaha,

Deep Blue was intelligent.

Deep Blue bio je inteligentan.

But even at the incredible speed,

Ali čak i pri nevjerojatnoj brzini,

200 million positions per second,

od 200 milijuna pozicija u sekundi,

Deep Blue's method

metoda Deep Bluea

provided little of the dreamed-of insight into the mysteries of human intelligence.

davala je malo željenog uvida u misterije ljudske inteligencije.

Soon,

Uskoro,

machines will be taxi drivers

strojevi će voziti taksije

and doctors and professors,

i biti liječnici i profesori,

but will they be "intelligent?"

ali hoće li biti "inteligentni?"

I would rather leave these definitions

Rađe bih ostavio ove definicije

to the philosophers and to the dictionary.

filozofima i riječniku.

What really matters is how we humans

Ono što je zaista važno je kako se mi ljudi

feel about living and working with these machines.

osjećamo vezano uz rad i život s tim strojevima.

Kada sam upoznao Deep Blue 1996. u veljači,

When I first met Deep Blue in 1996 in February,

I had been the world champion for more than 10 years,

bio sam svjetski prvak više od 10 godina,

i odigrao sam 182 partije za svjetsko prvenstvo

and I had played 182 world championship games

i stotine partija protiv vrhunskih igrača u drugim natjecanjima.

and hundreds of games against other top players in other competitions.

I knew what to expect from my opponents

I znao sam što očekivati od protivnika

and what to expect from myself.

i od sebe.

I was used to measure their moves

Navikao sam mjeriti njihove poteze

and to gauge their emotional state

i pratiti njihovo emocionalno stanje

by watching their body language and looking into their eyes.

gledajući govor tijela i gledajući ih u oči.

And then I sat across the chessboard from Deep Blue.

Tada sam sjeo za šahovsku ploču prekoputa Deep Bluea.

I immediately sensed something new,

Odmah sam osjetio nešto novo,

something unsettling.

nešto uznemirujuće.

You might experience a similar feeling

Možda ste iskusili sličan osjećaj

the first time you ride in a driverless car

prvi puta kada ste sjedili u autu bez vozača

or the first time your new computer manager issues an order at work.

ili prvi put kad vam vaš računalni nadzornik izda zadatke na poslu

But when I sat at that first game,

Ali kada sam sjeo za tu prvu partiju,

nisam bio siguran

I couldn't be sure

what is this thing capable of.

što je ta stvar sposobna učiniti.

Technology can advance in leaps, and IBM had invested heavily.

Tehnologija može napredovati skokovito, i IBM je puno investirao.

I lost that game.

Izgubio sam tu partiju.

And I couldn't help wondering,

I nisam se mogao ne zapitati

da li je možda nepobjediv?

might it be invincible?

Was my beloved game of chess over?

Je li moja ljubljena igra šaha gotova?

These were human doubts, human fears,

Ovo su bile ljudske sumnje, ljudski strahovi,

and the only thing I knew for sure

i jedino što sam zasigurno znao

was that my opponent Deep Blue had no such worries at all.

je da moj protivnik, Deep Blue nema takve brige.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I fought back

Uzvratio sam mu

after this devastating blow

nakon ovog razarajućeg udarca

da pobijedim prvu partiju,

to win the first match,

but the writing was on the wall.

ali rezultat je bio zapisan.

I eventually lost to the machine

Na kraju sam izgubio od stroja

but I didn't suffer the fate of John Henry

ali nisam doživio istu sudbinu kao John Henry

who won but died with his hammer in his hand.

koji je pobijedio ali umro s čekićem u rukama.

[John Henry Died with a Hammer in His Hand Palmer C. Hayden]

[The Museum of African American Art, Los Angeles]

It turned out that the world of chess

Ispalo je da svijet šaha

still wanted to have a human chess champion.

i dalje želi imati ljudskog prvaka.

And even today,

I čak i danas,

kada je besplatna aplikacija za šah na najnovijem mobitelu

when a free chess app on the latest mobile phone

is stronger than Deep Blue,

jača od Deep Bluea,

people are still playing chess,

ljudi i dalje igraju šah,

even more than ever before.

čak i više nego ikad prije.

Doomsayers predicted that nobody would touch the game

Proricatelji kraja predvidjeli su da nitko neće dirnuti igru

koju može svladati stroj,

that could be conquered by the machine,

and they were wrong, proven wrong,

i bili su u krivu, dokazano je da su u krivu,

but doomsaying has always been a popular pastime

ali proricanje kraja je uvijek bila popularna razbibriga

kada je riječ o tehnologiji.

when it comes to technology.

What I learned from my own experience

Ono što sam naučio iz vlastita iskustva

je da se moramo suočiti sa strahovima

is that we must face our fears

if we want to get the most out of our technology,

ako želimo izvući najviše iz naše tehnologije,

and we must conquer those fears

i moramo svladati te strahove

if we want to get the best out of our humanity.

ako želimo izvući najbolje iz naše čovječnosti.

Dok sam si vidao rane,

While licking my wounds,

I got a lot of inspiration

dobio sam puno inspiracije

za svoje borbe protiv Deep Bluea.

from my battles against Deep Blue.

As the old Russian saying goes, if you can't beat them, join them.

Stara ruska izreka kaže ako ne možeš pobijediti, pridruži im se.

Then I thought,

Onda sam pomislio,

what if I could play with a computer --

što ako mogu igrati s računalom --

together with a computer at my side, combining our strengths,

zajedno s računalom na mojoj strani, udružujući naše snage,

ljudsku intuiciju i računalne kalkulacije,

human intuition plus machine's calculation,

human strategy, machine tactics,

ljudsku strategiju, računalnu taktiku,

human experience, machine's memory.

ljudsko iskustvo, pamćenje računala.

Bi li to bila savršeno odigrana igra?

Could it be the perfect game ever played?

Moja ideja je zaživjela

My idea came to life

in 1998 under the name of Advanced Chess

1988. pod imenom Napredni Šah

when I played this human-plus-machine competition against another elite player.

kad sam igrao čovjek-plus-stroj natjecanje protiv još jednog elitnog igrača.

But in this first experiment,

Ali u prvom eksperimentu,

we both failed to combine human and machine skills effectively.

nismo uspjeli učinkovito spojiti ljudske i strojne vještine.

Advanced Chess found its home on the internet,

Napredni Šah našao je svoj dom na Internetu,

i 2005. šah turnir odigran slobodnim stilom

and in 2005, a so-called freestyle chess tournament

doveo je do otkrića.

produced a revelation.

A team of grandmasters and top machines participated,

Tim velemajstora i vrhunskih strojeva sudjelovao je

but the winners were not grandmasters,

ali pobjednici nisu bili velemajstori,

not a supercomputer.

niti superračunalo.

The winners were a pair of amateur American chess players

Pobjednik je bio par američkih amatera

sa tri obična računala koja su radila u isto vrijeme.

operating three ordinary PCs at the same time.

Their skill of coaching their machines

Njihove vještine u treniranju svojih strojeva

effectively counteracted the superior chess knowledge

učinkovito je poništila napredno znanje šaha

of their grandmaster opponents

velemajstorskih protivnika

i puno veću računalnu snagu drugih.

and much greater computational power of others.

And I reached this formulation.

I došao sam do ovog zaključka.

A weak human player plus a machine

Slab ljudski igrač i stroj

plus a better process is superior

sa boljim procesom je superiorniji

to a very powerful machine alone,

od samostalnog moćnog stroja,

but more remarkably, is superior to a strong human player

ali još upečatljivije, superiorniji je od jakog ljudskog igrača

plus machine

i stroja

i lošijeg procesa.

and an inferior process.

This convinced me that we would need

Ovo me uvjerilo da trebamo

bolja sučelja kojima bismo trenirali naše strojeve

better interfaces to help us coach our machines

towards more useful intelligence.

prema korisnijoj inteligenciji.

Human plus machine isn't the future,

Čovjek i stroj nisu budućnost,

it's the present.

to je sadašnjost.

Everybody that's used online translation

Svi koji koriste online prijevode

kako bi dobili srž članka iz stranih novina,

to get the gist of a news article from a foreign newspaper,

knowing its far from perfect.

znaju da je daleko od savršenog.

Then we use our human experience

Onda koristimo naše ljudsko iskustvo

to make sense out of that,

da bismo to razumjeli,

and then the machine learns from our corrections.

i onda stroj uči iz naših ispravaka.

This model is spreading and investing in medical diagnosis, security analysis.

Ovaj model se širi i ulaže u medicinske dijagnoze, sigurnosne analie.

The machine crunches data,

Stroj obrađuje podatke,

calculates probabilities,

računa vjerojatnost,

dođe na 80 posto puta, 90 posto,

gets 80 percent of the way, 90 percent,

making it easier for analysis

omogućujući lakšu analizu

i donošenje odluke od strane ljudi.

and decision-making of the human party.

But you are not going to send your kids

Ali nećete poslati djecu

u školu sa autom bez vozača sa 90 postotnom točnošću,

to school in a self-driving car with 90 percent accuracy,

even with 99 percent.

čak ni sa 99 postotnom.

So we need a leap forward

Tako da moramo skočiti naprijed

to add a few more crucial decimal places.

da bismo dodali nekoliko ključnih decimalnih mjesta.

Dvadeset godina nakon moje partije s Deep Blueom,

Twenty years after my match with Deep Blue,

second match,

druga partija,

this sensational "The Brain's Last Stand" headline

senzacionalni naslov "Posljednje uporište mozga"

postao je uobičajen

has become commonplace

as intelligent machines

dok inteligentni strojevi

move

napreduju

in every sector, seemingly every day.

u svakom sektoru, čini se svakog dana.

Ali nasuprot prošlosti

But unlike in the past,

when machines replaced

kada su strojevi zamjenjivali

farm animals, manual labor,

životinje, manualni rad,

now they are coming after people with college degrees

sada dolaze po ljude s fakultetskim obrazovanjem

and political influence.

i političkim utjecajem.

Kao netko tko se borio protiv strojeva i izgubio,

And as someone who fought machines and lost,

I am here to tell you this is excellent, excellent news.

tu sam da vam kažem kako su to izvrsne vijesti.

U jednom trenutku svaka profesija

Eventually, every profession

will have to feel these pressures

će morati osjetiti ove pritiske

or else it will mean humanity has ceased to make progress.

ili će to značiti da je čovječanstvo prestalo napredovati.

We don't

Mi ne možemo

get to choose

birati

when and where technological progress stops.

kada i kako staje tehnološki napredak.

Ne možemo ga

We cannot

slow down.

usporiti.

In fact,

Zapravo,

we have to speed up.

moramo ubrzati.

Our technology excels at removing

Naša tehnologija izvrsna je u uklanjanju

difficulties and uncertainties from our lives,

poteškoća i nesigurnosti iz našeg života

tako da moramo tražiti

and so we must seek out

ever more difficult,

uvijek teže,

ever more uncertain challenges.

uvijek nesigurnije izazove.

Machines have

Strojevi imaju

calculations.

kalkulacije.

We have understanding.

Mi imamo shvaćanje.

Machines have instructions.

Strojevi imaju upute.

We have purpose.

Mi imamo svrhu.

Machines have

Strojevi imaju

objektivnost.

objectivity.

We have passion.

Mi imamo strast.

We should not worry about what our machines can do today.

Ne bi se trebali brinuti o tome što strojevi mogu napraviti danas.

Instead, we should worry about what they still cannot do today,

Trebali bismo se brinuti o onome što još ne mogu napraviti danas,

because we will need the help of the new, intelligent machines

jer ćemo trebati pomoć novih, inteligentnihstrojeva

to turn our grandest dreams into reality.

da naše najveće snove pretvorimo u stvarnost.

i ako ne uspijemo,

And if we fail,

if we fail, it's not because our machines are too intelligent,

ako ne uspijemo, nije to zato što u naši strojevi previše

or not intelligent enough.

ili nedovoljno inteligentni.

If we fail, it's because we grew complacent

Ako ne uspijemo, to je zato što smo postali nemarni

and limited our ambitions.

i ograničili naše ambicije.

Our humanity is not defined by any skill,

Naša čovječnost nije definirana vještinom

like swinging a hammer or even playing chess.

kao što je zamah čekića ili čak igranje šaha.

There's one thing only a human can do.

Postoji samo jedna stvar koju samo ljudi mogu činiti.

That's dream.

A to je sanjati.

Zato sanjajmo velike snove.

So let us dream big.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)