Steven Johnson: A guided tour of the Ghost Map

134,736 views ・ 2007-05-18

TED


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Translator: Sandra Petrović Reviewer: Nika Kotnik
00:25
If you haven't ordered yet, I generally find the rigatoni with the spicy tomato sauce
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Če še niste jedli, priporočam rigatone s pekočo paradižnikovo omako,
00:32
goes best with diseases of the small intestine.
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saj gredo najbolje z boleznimi tankega črevesa.
00:35
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:37
So, sorry -- it just feels like I should be doing stand-up up here because of the setting.
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Oprostite, a zaradi postavitve odra se mi zdi, da sem tu za stand up nastop.
00:41
No, what I want to do is take you back to 1854
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Sedaj pa vas bom za nekaj minut popeljal nazaj v leto 1854,
00:46
in London for the next few minutes, and tell the story --
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in sicer v London, da vam na kratko povem zgodbo tega izbruha,
00:50
in brief -- of this outbreak,
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00:53
which in many ways, I think, helped create the world that we live in today,
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ki je po moje na mnoge načine doprinesel k sodobnemu načinu življenja,
00:57
and particularly the kind of city that we live in today.
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predvsem pa sodobnim velemestom.
00:59
This period in 1854, in the middle part of the 19th century,
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To obdobje v letu 1854, sredi 19. stoletja v zgodovini Londona,
01:03
in London's history, is incredibly interesting for a number of reasons.
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je izredno zanimivo iz številnih razlogov.
01:07
But I think the most important one is that
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Menim pa, da je najpomembnejši dejstvo,
01:10
London was this city of 2.5 million people,
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da je bil London velemesto z 2,5 milijona prebivalcev
01:13
and it was the largest city on the face of the planet at that point.
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in je bil tisti trenutek največje mesto na planetu.
Bil pa je tudi največje mesto vseh časov.
01:18
But it was also the largest city that had ever been built.
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01:20
And so the Victorians were trying to live through
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Tako so viktorijanci istočasno skušali preživeti
01:23
and simultaneously invent a whole new scale of living:
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in nekako izumiti novo stopnjo v razvoju življenjskega stila,
01:27
this scale of living that we, you know, now call "metropolitan living."
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stopnjo, ki ji danes rečemo, gotovo veste, "urbani življenjski stil".
01:32
And it was in many ways, at this point in the mid-1850s, a complete disaster.
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Ta je bil takrat, sredi 50-ih let 19. st., v številnih pogledih še popolna polomija.
01:38
They were basically a city living with a modern kind of industrial metropolis
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Dejansko so živeli v prototipu modernega industrijskega velemesta
01:42
with an Elizabethan public infrastructure.
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s srednjeveško infrastrukturo.
01:45
So people, for instance, just to gross you out for a second,
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Tako so ljudje imeli na primer - da vas malce zgrozim -
01:50
had cesspools of human waste in their basement. Like, a foot to two feet deep.
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v kleteh greznice s človeškimi iztrebki. Mislim, globine 30 do 60 cm.
01:56
And they would just kind of throw the buckets down there
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Dejansko so vsebino čebrov nekako zlivali tja dol
01:59
and hope that it would somehow go away,
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in upali, da bo čudežno izginila in seveda nikoli ni povsem izginila.
02:01
and of course it never really would go away.
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02:04
And all of this stuff, basically, had accumulated to the point
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Vse te tegobe so se nabirale do točke,
02:07
where the city was incredibly offensive to just walk around in.
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da je bilo skrajno neprijetno že samo hoditi po mestu.
02:11
It was an amazingly smelly city. Not just because of the cesspools,
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Mesto je imelo neverjetno neprijeten vonj. Pa ne samo zaradi greznic,
02:15
but also the sheer number of livestock in the city would shock people.
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ampak že število glav živine v mestu bi vas presenetilo.
02:18
Not just the horses, but people had cows in their attics that they would use for milk,
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Ne samo konji, na podstrešju so imeli tudi krave za mleko,
02:22
that they would hoist up there and keep them in the attic
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s škripci so jih dvignili tja in jih vzdrževali tam,
02:25
until literally their milk ran out and they died,
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dokler ni zmanjkalo mleka in so poginile.
02:27
and then they would drag them off to the bone boilers down the street.
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Po tem so jih odvlekli do najbližje predelovalnice kosti.
02:33
So, you would just walk around London at this point
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Če bi v tistem času hodili po Londonu,
02:36
and just be overwhelmed with this stench.
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bi vas šokiral neznosen smrad.
02:39
And what ended up happening is that an entire emerging public health system
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Sledilo je to, da je nastajajoči sistem za varovanje javnega zdravstva
02:44
became convinced that it was the smell that was killing everybody,
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kot vzrok za smrtnost meščanov prepoznal smrad
02:48
that was creating these diseases
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in določil, da smrad ustvarja bolezni,
02:50
that would wipe through the city every three or four years.
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ki so vsake tri ali štiri leta povzročile morijo v mestu.
02:53
And cholera was really the great killer of this period.
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Kolera je bila v tem času huda morilka.
02:55
It arrived in London in 1832, and every four or five years
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V Londonu se je pojavila leta 1832 in na vsake štiri ali pet let
03:00
another epidemic would take 10,000, 20,000 people in London
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je epidemija usmrtila 10.000, 20.000 ljudi v Londonu,
03:04
and throughout the U.K.
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pa tudi v celotnem Združenem kraljestvu.
03:06
And so the authorities became convinced that this smell was this problem.
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Oblasti so bile torej prepričane, da je vzrok problema smrad.
03:10
We had to get rid of the smell.
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Iskali so način, da se znebijo smrada.
03:12
And so, in fact, they concocted a couple of early, you know,
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Tako so zasnovali nekaj zgodnjih ukrepov
03:15
founding public-health interventions in the system of the city,
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za varstvo javnega zdravja v mestnem sistemu,
03:19
one of which was called the "Nuisances Act,"
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eden od teh se je imenoval "Zakon o javnem redu",
03:21
which they got everybody as far as they could
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ki je - kolikor je lahko - ljudi prisilil,
03:23
to empty out their cesspools and just pour all that waste into the river.
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da so vsebino svojih greznic izpraznili v reko.
03:28
Because if we get it out of the streets, it'll smell much better,
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Ker: če jih odmaknemo z ulic, bo vonj znosnejši
03:32
and -- oh right, we drink from the river.
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in ... Saj res! Mi vendar pijemo iz reke.
03:36
So what ended up happening, actually,
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Posledično se je pravzaprav zgodilo, da se je število obolelih zvišalo,
03:38
is they ended up increasing the outbreaks of cholera
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03:40
because, as we now know, cholera is actually in the water.
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ker, kot sedaj vemo, je kolera v vodi.
To je bolezen, ki se prenaša z vodo, ne preko zraka.
03:44
It's a waterborne disease, not something that's in the air.
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Je ne vohamo in ne vdahnemo, v resnici jo zaužijemo.
03:47
It's not something you smell or inhale; it's something you ingest.
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03:50
And so one of the founding moments of public health in the 19th century
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Tako so začetki javnega zdravja v 19. st.
03:54
effectively poisoned the water supply of London much more effectively
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dejansko zastrupili pitno vodo v Londonu s takšnim uspehom,
da lahko o tem kateri koli sodobni bioterorist samo sanja.
03:58
than any modern day bioterrorist could have ever dreamed of doing.
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04:01
So this was the state of London in 1854,
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Takšna je bila torej situacija v Londonu leta 1854
04:05
and in the middle of all this carnage and offensive conditions,
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in sredi tega masakra in obupnih razmer
04:11
and in the midst of all this scientific confusion
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in sredi te znanstvene zmede o vzroku smrtnosti ljudi
04:14
about what was actually killing people,
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04:17
it was a very talented classic 19th century multi-disciplinarian named John Snow,
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je bil nadarjen multidisciplinaren znanstvenik 19. st. po imenu John Snow,
04:23
who was a local doctor in Soho in London,
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sicer lokalni zdravnik v predelu Soho v Londonu,
04:26
who had been arguing for about four or five years
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ki je že štiri ali pet let zagovarjal, da se kolera prenaša z vodo,
04:28
that cholera was, in fact, a waterborne disease,
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04:31
and had basically convinced nobody of this.
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o čemer ni uspel prepričati še nikogar.
04:34
The public health authorities had largely ignored what he had to say.
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Snovalci politike javnega zdravja so preslišali njegove argumente.
04:38
And he'd made the case in a number of papers and done a number of studies,
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O tem je napisal veliko tehtnih člankov in izvedel precej raziskav,
04:42
but nothing had really stuck.
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vendar ni šlo nič skozi.
Del tega, zakaj mi je ta zgodba všeč, je,
04:44
And part of -- what's so interesting about this story to me
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04:46
is that in some ways, it's a great case study in how cultural change happens,
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da na nek način predstavlja učni primer poteka kulturnih sprememb,
04:51
how a good idea eventually comes to win out over much worse ideas.
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kako dobra zamisel premaga precej slabše.
04:56
And Snow labored for a long time with this great insight that everybody ignored.
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Snow je dolgo garal s tem uvidom pred očmi, ki so ga drugi ignorirali.
05:00
And then on one day, August 28th of 1854,
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Nato pa se je nekega dne, in sicer 28. avgusta 1854,
05:05
a young child, a five-month-old girl whose first name we don't know,
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majhen otrok, petmesečna deklica, katere niti imena ne vemo,
poznamo jo kot Lewisovega dojenčka, se je nekako okužila s kolero
05:09
we know her only as Baby Lewis, somehow contracted cholera,
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05:13
came down with cholera at 40 Broad Street.
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in zbolela za to boleznijo na naslovu Broad Street 40.
05:16
You can't really see it in this map, but this is the map
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Na tem zemljevidu se ne vidi, toda ta zemljevid
05:19
that becomes the central focus in the second half of my book.
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postane osrednji fokus v drugi polovici moje knjige.
Torej v Sohu, soseski delavskega razreda,
05:24
It's in the middle of Soho, in this working class neighborhood,
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05:26
this little girl becomes sick and it turns out that the cesspool,
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to dekletce zboli in izkaže se, da greznica,
05:30
that they still continue to have, despite the Nuisances Act,
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ki jo še vedno imajo, navkljub "Zakonu o javnem redu",
05:33
bordered on an extremely popular water pump,
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meji na izredno priljubljeno vodno črpalko.
05:37
local watering hole that was well known for the best water in all of Soho,
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Lokalni vodnjak, ki je slovel po najboljši vodi v celotnem Sohu
05:41
that all the residents from Soho and the surrounding neighborhoods would go to.
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in h kateremu so hodili vsi prebivalci Soha in okoliških sosesk.
05:45
And so this little girl inadvertently ended up
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Tako je to dekletce nehote pomagalo
05:48
contaminating the water in this popular pump,
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kontaminirati vodo v tej črpalki
05:50
and one of the most terrifying outbreaks in the history of England
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in eden najbolj grozljivih izbruhov kolere v angleški zgodovini
je sledil dva ali tri dni pozneje.
05:56
erupted about two or three days later.
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05:58
Literally, 10 percent of the neighborhood died in seven days,
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Resnično, 10 odstotkov soseščine je umrlo v sedmih dneh
in verjetno bi je še več, če ljudje ne bi zbežali po začetku izbruha.
06:02
and much more would have died if people hadn't fled
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06:04
after the initial outbreak kicked in.
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06:07
So it was this incredibly terrifying event.
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Dogodek je bil izredno grotesken.
06:09
You had these scenes of entire families dying
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Predstavljajte si, kako v roku 48 ur od izbruha kolere umirajo celotne družine,
06:12
over the course of 48 hours of cholera,
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06:14
alone in their one-room apartments, in their little flats.
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sami v svojih garsonjerah, v svojih malih stanovanjih.
06:19
Just an extraordinary, terrifying scene.
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Neverjetna, grozljiva slika.
06:22
Snow lived near there, heard about the outbreak,
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Snow, ki je stanoval v bližini, je slišal za izbruh,
in pogumno odbrzel v epicenter izbruha,
06:26
and in this amazing act of courage went directly into the belly of the beast
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06:29
because he thought an outbreak that concentrated
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ker je ocenil, da bi lahko tako koncentriran izbruh
06:32
could actually potentially end up convincing people that,
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morda ljudi vendarle prepričal,
da je resnična nevarnost kolere v pitni vodi in ne v zraku.
06:36
in fact, the real menace of cholera was in the water supply and not in the air.
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Domneval je, da bi tako koncentriran izbruh
06:42
He suspected an outbreak that concentrated
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06:44
would probably involve a single point source.
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lahko imel eno samo točko izvora.
En sam kraj, h kateremu so vsi hodili,
06:48
One single thing that everybody was going to
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ker ni prišlo do tipičnega počasnega načina okužbe.
06:50
because it didn't have the traditional slower path
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06:53
of infections that you might expect.
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Odšel je torej naravnost tja in začel ljudi spraševati.
06:56
And so he went right in there and started interviewing people.
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06:59
He eventually enlisted the help of this amazing other figure,
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Priskrbel si je tudi pomoč še ene izjemne osebnosti,
07:03
who's kind of the other protagonist of the book --
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nekako drugega protagonista knjige -
07:05
this guy, Henry Whitehead, who was a local minister,
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Henryja Whiteheada, okoliškega duhovnika,
07:08
who was not at all a man of science, but was incredibly socially connected;
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sicer ne znanstvenika, vendar zelo socialno povezanega
07:11
he knew everybody in the neighborhood.
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in je poznal vse v soseski.
07:13
And he managed to track down, Whitehead did,
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In ravno Whiteheadu je uspelo izslediti
07:15
many of the cases of people who had drunk water from the pump,
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večino, ki so pili vodo iz črpalke,
07:18
or who hadn't drunk water from the pump.
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in tiste, ki tam niso pili.
07:20
And eventually Snow made a map of the outbreak.
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Tako je Snow naredil "zemljevid izbruha".
Kazalo je, da so tisti, ki so tam pili, večinoma zboleli,
07:25
He found increasingly that people who drank from the pump were getting sick.
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07:28
People who hadn't drunk from the pump were not getting sick.
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tisti, ki pa niso pili, niso zboleli.
07:31
And he thought about representing that
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Premišljeval je, da bi to predstavil
kot nekakšno statistično preglednico prebivalcev različnih sosesk,
07:33
as a kind of a table of statistics of people living in different neighborhoods,
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ljudi, ki niso, oz. delež ljudi, ki niso,
07:36
people who hadn't, you know, percentages of people who hadn't,
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07:38
but eventually he hit upon the idea
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naposled pa se je domislil, da bi potreboval nekaj bolj očitnega.
07:40
that what he needed was something that you could see.
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Nekaj, kar bi nazorno prikazalo
07:42
Something that would take in a sense a higher-level view
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07:44
of all this activity that had been happening in the neighborhood.
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dogajanje v soseski.
07:47
And so he created this map,
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Tako je ustvaril ta zemljevid,
ki število smrti v soseski dejansko prikazuje
07:50
which basically ended up representing all the deaths in the neighborhoods
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07:54
as black bars at each address.
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kot črni stolpec na vsakem naslovu.
07:57
And you can see in this map, the pump right at the center of it
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Na zemljevidu lahko vidimo, da se črpalka nahaja v središču
08:00
and you can see that one of the residences down the way
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in da je hiša v neposredni bližini izgubila približno 15 stanovalcev.
08:02
had about 15 people dead.
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08:04
And the map is actually a little bit bigger.
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Ta zemljevid je v resnici nekoliko večji.
Bolj ko se oddaljujete od črpalke,
08:06
As you get further and further away from the pump,
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08:08
the deaths begin to grow less and less frequent.
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bolj se število smrti znižuje.
08:11
And so you can see this something poisonous
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Tako lahko vidimo, da se nekaj strupenega širi iz vodnjaka, že na prvi pogled.
08:14
emanating out of this pump that you could see in a glance.
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08:18
And so, with the help of this map,
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Tako so se s pomočjo tega zemljevida in nekaj prepričevanja,
08:20
and with the help of more evangelizing
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08:22
that he did over the next few years
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ki ga je izvajal v naslednjih letih skupaj z Whiteheadom,
08:24
and that Whitehead did, eventually, actually,
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mestne oblasti na koncu dejansko spreobrnile.
08:26
the authorities slowly started to come around.
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08:28
It took much longer than sometimes we like to think in this story,
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Sicer je trajalo dlje, kot bi si mi danes želeli predstavljati,
08:31
but by 1866, when the next big cholera outbreak came to London,
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toda do leta 1866, ko je v Londonu vnovič prišlo do velikega izbruha kolere,
08:36
the authorities had been convinced -- in part because of this story,
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so bile mestne oblasti spreobrnjene - delno zaradi tega primera,
delno zaradi tega zemljevida - da je bil izvor pravzaprav v vodi.
08:40
in part because of this map -- that in fact the water was the problem.
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08:44
And they had already started building the sewers in London,
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Gradnja kanalizacije v Londonu je že potekala
08:46
and they immediately went to this outbreak
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in takoj so se lotili izbruha in ljudem rekli, naj vodo prekuhavajo.
08:48
and they told everybody to start boiling their water.
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08:50
And that was the last time that London has seen a cholera outbreak since.
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In to je bilo zadnjikrat, da je v Londonu prišlo do izbruha kolere.
08:55
So, part of this story, I think -- well, it's a terrifying story,
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Tako mislim, da del te zgodbe - v bistvu je strašljiva,
08:58
it's a very dark story and it's a story
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je zelo temačna zgodba in je zgodba, ki se še vedno dogaja
09:00
that continues on in many of the developing cities of the world.
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v številnih mestih tretjega sveta.
09:04
It's also a story really that is fundamentally optimistic,
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V resnici gre tudi za zgodbo, ki je v osnovi optimistična,
09:07
which is to say that it's possible to solve these problems
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ki kaže, da je mogoče rešiti te probleme,
09:10
if we listen to reason, if we listen to the kind of wisdom of these kinds of maps,
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če sledimo razumu, če sledimo modrosti takšnih zemljevidov,
09:14
if we listen to people like Snow and Whitehead,
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če sledimo ljudem kot Snow in Whitehead
09:16
if we listen to the locals who understand
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in sledimo krajanom, ki razumejo, kaj se dogaja v takšnih primerih.
09:18
what's going on in these kinds of situations.
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09:21
And what it ended up doing is making the idea
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Kar se je na koncu zgodilo,
je ohranitev ideje velemestnega "urbanega načina življenja" kot vzdržnega.
09:24
of large-scale metropolitan living a sustainable one.
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09:28
When people were looking at 10 percent of their neighborhoods dying
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Ko so ljudje opazovali, kako desetina njihovih sosedov umira v roku sedmih dni,
09:31
in the space of seven days,
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09:33
there was a widespread consensus that this couldn't go on,
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je obstajalo soglasje, da tako ne gre naprej,
09:36
that people weren't meant to live in cities of 2.5 million people.
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da ljudje niso bili ustvarjeni za življenje v mestih z 2,5 milijona ljudi.
A zaradi Snowovih dejanj, zemljevida,
09:40
But because of what Snow did, because of this map,
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09:42
because of the whole series of reforms
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zaradi vrste reform, ki so sledile zemljevidu,
09:44
that happened in the wake of this map,
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09:46
we now take for granted that cities have 10 million people,
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so nam danes samoumevna mesta tudi z 10 milijoni ljudi,
mesta, kot je tudi to, so obstojna.
09:50
cities like this one are in fact sustainable things.
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09:52
We don't worry that New York City is going to collapse in on itself
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Niti za sekundo nas ne skrbi, da bi New York propadel,
09:55
quite the way that, you know, Rome did,
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kot je, vemo, razpadel stari Rim,
09:57
and be 10 percent of its size in 100 years or 200 years.
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in se zmanjšal na desetino velikosti v stoletju ali dveh.
10:00
And so that in a way is the ultimate legacy of this map.
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Na nek način je to glavna zapuščina tega zemljevida.
10:03
It's a map of deaths that ended up creating a whole new way of life,
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Zemljevid smrti, ki je na koncu ustvaril nov način življenja,
10:08
the life that we're enjoying here today. Thank you very much.
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življenje, ki ga uživamo tudi mi danes tu. Najlepša hvala.
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