Steven Johnson: A guided tour of the Ghost Map

スティーブ・ジョンソンの感染地図

翻訳: Takahiro Shimpo 校正: Satoshi Tatsuhara

If you haven't ordered yet, I generally find the rigatoni with the spicy tomato sauce

注文がまだなら、リガトーニのスパイシートマトソースと

goes best with diseases of the small intestine.

小腸の病気は最高にあいますよ

(Laughter)

（笑）

So, sorry -- it just feels like I should be doing stand-up up here because of the setting.

失礼　舞台という設定上、芝居をすべきだと感じまして

No, what I want to do is take you back to 1854

さて 今日はこれから数分間で皆さんに

in London for the next few minutes, and tell the story --

1854年 ロンドンの話をしようと思います

in brief -- of this outbreak,

大流行した疫病にまつわる話です

which in many ways, I think, helped create the world that we live in today,

今日私達が暮らす世界に寄与する出来事で

and particularly the kind of city that we live in today.

特に今日の都市に影響を及ぼしました

This period in 1854, in the middle part of the 19th century,

19世紀の中頃、1854年という時代は

in London's history, is incredibly interesting for a number of reasons.

理由は多々あれ、ロンドン史上かなり興味深い時代でした

But I think the most important one is that

中でも 私の思う最も重要な点は

London was this city of 2.5 million people,

ロンドンは250万の市民を有す都市で

and it was the largest city on the face of the planet at that point.

当時世界中で最大の都市だったことです

But it was also the largest city that had ever been built.

しかも史上最大の都市でした

And so the Victorians were trying to live through

ビクトリア時代の人々はこの時代を生き抜き

and simultaneously invent a whole new scale of living:

同時に新たな住環境の構築を目指していました

this scale of living that we, you know, now call "metropolitan living."

今日この新たな住環境を 俗に大都市と呼んでいます

And it was in many ways, at this point in the mid-1850s, a complete disaster.

1850年当時の住環境づくりは、色々な意味で大失敗でした

They were basically a city living with a modern kind of industrial metropolis

当時の人たちはエリザベス朝の社会インフラと

with an Elizabethan public infrastructure.

今日の様な工業都市機能の下暮らしていました

So people, for instance, just to gross you out for a second,

例えば地下には皆さんの気分を少し害すような

had cesspools of human waste in their basement. Like, a foot to two feet deep.

30cmから60cm程の深さの汚水溜めがありました

And they would just kind of throw the buckets down there

人々は何となくバケツをそこでひっくり返し

and hope that it would somehow go away,

そのうち消えてなくなるだろうと思っていました

and of course it never really would go away.

勿論なくなることはありません

And all of this stuff, basically, had accumulated to the point

この様な習慣が積み重なって

where the city was incredibly offensive to just walk around in.

歩くだけで気分を害す 最悪な街になったのです

It was an amazingly smelly city. Not just because of the cesspools,

とてつもなく臭い街でした　汚水溜めだけでなく

but also the sheer number of livestock in the city would shock people.

おぞましい数の家畜もその原因の一部です

Not just the horses, but people had cows in their attics that they would use for milk,

当時は馬だけでなく乳牛も屋根裏で飼っており

that they would hoist up there and keep them in the attic

まさに牛乳がでなくなって死ぬまで

until literally their milk ran out and they died,

そこに閉じ込めておいて

and then they would drag them off to the bone boilers down the street.

死んだら焼却炉まで道を引きずって行きました

So, you would just walk around London at this point

当時のロンドンを歩こうものなら

and just be overwhelmed with this stench.

その悪臭に驚愕したことでしょう

And what ended up happening is that an entire emerging public health system

最終的には新興の公共保健当局が

became convinced that it was the smell that was killing everybody,

人々の大量死の原因と、3, 4年の周期で

that was creating these diseases

街中に蔓延する病の原因は

that would wipe through the city every three or four years.

この臭いだと確信したのです

And cholera was really the great killer of this period.

コレラは当時最大の死因でした

It arrived in London in 1832, and every four or five years

ロンドンでの1832年のコレラ波及以来

another epidemic would take 10,000, 20,000 people in London

4, 5年ごとに、ロンドンや英国全土で

and throughout the U.K.

1万から2万人規模の大流行が起こりましたから

And so the authorities became convinced that this smell was this problem.

当局は臭いこそが問題だと思い込むようになりました

We had to get rid of the smell.

悪臭を解消しなくてはいけません

And so, in fact, they concocted a couple of early, you know,

そこで実際、都市機能整備の一環として

founding public-health interventions in the system of the city,

公衆衛生策を構想しました

one of which was called the "Nuisances Act,"

その一つが迷惑防止条例で

which they got everybody as far as they could

当局は可能な限り汚水溜めを

to empty out their cesspools and just pour all that waste into the river.

空にする為、川へ流すよう促しました

Because if we get it out of the streets, it'll smell much better,

理由は汚水が路上になければ、悪臭は改善され…

and -- oh right, we drink from the river.

その通り、私達は川の水を飲みます

So what ended up happening, actually,

要するに結果としてコレラの流行を

is they ended up increasing the outbreaks of cholera

助長しただけでした、理由はご存知の通り

because, as we now know, cholera is actually in the water.

コレラ菌は水中に潜んでいるからです

It's a waterborne disease, not something that's in the air.

臭いを感じたり、呼吸時に吸入するタイプではなく

It's not something you smell or inhale; it's something you ingest.

水中に生息し、飲み水を介し進入します

And so one of the founding moments of public health in the 19th century

つまり19世紀の公衆衛生策の1つが

effectively poisoned the water supply of London much more effectively

事実上 今日の生物兵器テロよりも効果的に

than any modern day bioterrorist could have ever dreamed of doing.

ロンドンの水資源に毒を盛ったのです

So this was the state of London in 1854,

これが1854年のロンドンです

and in the middle of all this carnage and offensive conditions,

多数の人が犠牲となり苦難が続く中

and in the midst of all this scientific confusion

本当の死因が何であるか

about what was actually killing people,

科学的にも解明できていない状況でした

it was a very talented classic 19th century multi-disciplinarian named John Snow,

19世紀の高名な学際者、ジョン スノウ

who was a local doctor in Soho in London,

彼はロンドン、ソーホーの医師で

who had been arguing for about four or five years

4, 5年間の間ずっとコレラは

that cholera was, in fact, a waterborne disease,

実は水を通じ感染する、と主張したのですが

and had basically convinced nobody of this.

誰もこれを信じませんでした

The public health authorities had largely ignored what he had to say.

保健当局は往々にして彼の意見を無視しました

And he'd made the case in a number of papers and done a number of studies,

彼はこれについて多く研究を行い、論文をまとめましたが

but nothing had really stuck.

ほとんど効果は上がりませんでした

And part of -- what's so interesting about this story to me

この話で特に興味を引く点は

is that in some ways, it's a great case study in how cultural change happens,

どの様に文化的変革が起こるか示している点です

how a good idea eventually comes to win out over much worse ideas.

優れた意見が劣った意見にどう打ち勝つか示しています

And Snow labored for a long time with this great insight that everybody ignored.

スノウは皆が無視したこの優れた病識に

And then on one day, August 28th of 1854,

更に時間を注ぎました　1854年8月28日

a young child, a five-month-old girl whose first name we don't know,

名前は知られていない、姓をルイスという

we know her only as Baby Lewis, somehow contracted cholera,

生後5か月の赤子がコレラに感染しました

came down with cholera at 40 Broad Street.

ブロードストリートの40番地に住んでいた赤子です

You can't really see it in this map, but this is the map

この地図ではよく見えませんが、この地図が

that becomes the central focus in the second half of my book.

私の著書の後半部で焦点になる部分です

It's in the middle of Soho, in this working class neighborhood,

ソーホーの中心、労働者階級の街です

this little girl becomes sick and it turns out that the cesspool,

この少女が病を患ったことにより発覚したのですが

that they still continue to have, despite the Nuisances Act,

条例に反し続いていた汚水溜めが　実は

bordered on an extremely popular water pump,

頻繁に利用されるポンプに隣接していたのです

local watering hole that was well known for the best water in all of Soho,

このポンプはソーホーで一番きれいな水が出ると評判で

that all the residents from Soho and the surrounding neighborhoods would go to.

ソーホー住人に加えて近隣からも利用者が来ていました

And so this little girl inadvertently ended up

その結果この少女は意図せず

contaminating the water in this popular pump,

この給水所の水を汚染し

and one of the most terrifying outbreaks in the history of England

英国史上最も恐ろしいコレラ大流行を

erupted about two or three days later.

2, 3日の後に引き起こしました

Literally, 10 percent of the neighborhood died in seven days,

文字通り、10%の市民が7日間で命を落としました

and much more would have died if people hadn't fled

大流行勃発時に市民が逃げずにいたら

after the initial outbreak kicked in.

計り知れない数の人が死んでいたでしょう

So it was this incredibly terrifying event.

こんなにも恐ろしい出来事だったのです

You had these scenes of entire families dying

人々は48時間の内に

over the course of 48 hours of cholera,

一部屋しかない家の中で

alone in their one-room apartments, in their little flats.

家族がバタバタと死んでいく光景を目の当たりにしました

Just an extraordinary, terrifying scene.

震えあがるような恐怖体験です

Snow lived near there, heard about the outbreak,

スノウは近くに住んでおり、流行を聞きつけ

and in this amazing act of courage went directly into the belly of the beast

超越した勇気で直接魔物の腹に飛び込みました

because he thought an outbreak that concentrated

彼は局所的な流行であるという観点から

could actually potentially end up convincing people that,

コレラは空気でなく水を介し感染している

in fact, the real menace of cholera was in the water supply and not in the air.

と人々を説得できると考えたのです

He suspected an outbreak that concentrated

彼はこの流行の発端は

would probably involve a single point source.

ある1つの地点だと予想しました

One single thing that everybody was going to

つまり皆が足を運ぶような場所です

because it didn't have the traditional slower path

なぜなら皆さんの想像するような

of infections that you might expect.

低速の感染経路はなかったからです

And so he went right in there and started interviewing people.

彼は実際に足を運び人々に問いました

He eventually enlisted the help of this amazing other figure,

さらにある実力者の協力も取り付けました

who's kind of the other protagonist of the book --

彼もまたこの本の主人公です

this guy, Henry Whitehead, who was a local minister,

ヘンリー ホワイトヘッド、彼は牧師です

who was not at all a man of science, but was incredibly socially connected;

科学は全くでしたが、地域とのつながりは深く

he knew everybody in the neighborhood.

彼は地域の人ならだれでも知っており

And he managed to track down, Whitehead did,

ポンプの水を飲んだ人の状況も

many of the cases of people who had drunk water from the pump,

飲んでいない人の状況も

or who hadn't drunk water from the pump.

つかんでいました

And eventually Snow made a map of the outbreak.

遂にスノウはコレラ流行の地図を完成させて

He found increasingly that people who drank from the pump were getting sick.

ポンプの水を飲んだ人は発症し

People who hadn't drunk from the pump were not getting sick.

飲んでいない人は発症しないことが分かってきました

And he thought about representing that

色々な地域の

as a kind of a table of statistics of people living in different neighborhoods,

水を飲んでいない人の割合を

people who hadn't, you know, percentages of people who hadn't,

表で示そうかと考えましたが

but eventually he hit upon the idea

視覚的に把握できるものが必要と

that what he needed was something that you could see.

考え至りました

Something that would take in a sense a higher-level view

この地域で起きていることが

of all this activity that had been happening in the neighborhood.

視覚的にはっきりと把握できるものです

And so he created this map,

そこで彼はこの地図を作成し

which basically ended up representing all the deaths in the neighborhoods

この地域で死亡した人を全て

as black bars at each address.

住所ごとに黒い印で示しました

And you can see in this map, the pump right at the center of it

ご覧の通り、中心にはポンプがあり

and you can see that one of the residences down the way

その下の区域で15人が亡くなったことが

had about 15 people dead.

この地図から確認できます

And the map is actually a little bit bigger.

実際の地図はもう少し大きめですけどね

As you get further and further away from the pump,

ポンプから離れれば離れるほど

the deaths begin to grow less and less frequent.

死者数の数は減少傾向にあります

And so you can see this something poisonous

一目でこのポンプから何か迫りくる

emanating out of this pump that you could see in a glance.

有毒なものを感じることができます

And so, with the help of this map,

この地図を製作したり

and with the help of more evangelizing

続く2, 3年程

that he did over the next few years

スノウとホワイトヘッドが

and that Whitehead did, eventually, actually,

この考えの普及に努めた結果

the authorities slowly started to come around.

事実 後に当局が少しずつ動き出します

It took much longer than sometimes we like to think in this story,

我々の推測よりだいぶ長くかかりましたが

but by 1866, when the next big cholera outbreak came to London,

次にロンドンでコレラが大流行する1866年までには

the authorities had been convinced -- in part because of this story,

保健当局はこの話や、この地図のおかげもあって

in part because of this map -- that in fact the water was the problem.

実は水に原因があると信じるに至ったのです

And they had already started building the sewers in London,

ロンドンでは下水設備が作られ始め

and they immediately went to this outbreak

第二次コレラ大流行にすぐに対応し

and they told everybody to start boiling their water.

水を熱消毒するよう人々に命じました

And that was the last time that London has seen a cholera outbreak since.

これがロンドン史上最後のコレラ大流行になりました

So, part of this story, I think -- well, it's a terrifying story,

この話はとても恐ろしい面を含んでいます

it's a very dark story and it's a story

とても暗い話ですし、発展途上にある

that continues on in many of the developing cities of the world.

世界中の多くの都市で今なお続く問題でもあります

It's also a story really that is fundamentally optimistic,

しかし本質を見れば実は楽観できる話でもあります

which is to say that it's possible to solve these problems

つまり原因を知り

if we listen to reason, if we listen to the kind of wisdom of these kinds of maps,

地図から情報を読み取り

if we listen to people like Snow and Whitehead,

スノウやホワイトヘッドの話を受け入れ

if we listen to the locals who understand

状況を知る地元住民の話を聞けば

what's going on in these kinds of situations.

解決できる問題だということです

And what it ended up doing is making the idea

こういったことから最終的に

of large-scale metropolitan living a sustainable one.

大規模な都市生活が可能と考えられるようになりました

When people were looking at 10 percent of their neighborhoods dying

7日で10%の隣人が死んでいく光景を見たときには

in the space of seven days,

250万人が大都市に暮らすなんて

there was a widespread consensus that this couldn't go on,

不可能だという共通認識が

that people weren't meant to live in cities of 2.5 million people.

広まっていましたが

But because of what Snow did, because of this map,

しかしスノウの行い、この地図

because of the whole series of reforms

そしてこの地図のおかげで実現した

that happened in the wake of this map,

一連の改革の成果によって

we now take for granted that cities have 10 million people,

人口1000万を有す都市が 今では当たり前になっています

cities like this one are in fact sustainable things.

この様な大規模な都市も存在可能なのです

We don't worry that New York City is going to collapse in on itself

今日、誰もニューヨークがローマみたいに

quite the way that, you know, Rome did,

滅亡するとも、100年後や200年後に

and be 10 percent of its size in 100 years or 200 years.

10%の規模に縮小するとも思っていません

And so that in a way is the ultimate legacy of this map.

これがある意味この地図から得た遺産なのです

It's a map of deaths that ended up creating a whole new way of life,

今私たちが全く新しい生活を満喫できるのは　死者を示した

the life that we're enjoying here today. Thank you very much.

地図のおかげなのです　ご清聴ありがとうございました