When you're making a deal, what's going on in your brain? | Colin Camerer

Transcriber: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Thu-Huong Ha

Prevoditelj: Maja Budišin Lukin Recezent: Senzos Osijek

I'm going to talk about the strategizing brain.

Govorit ću o strategijama mozga.

Koristit ćemo neobičnu kombinaciju instrumenata

We're going to use an unusual combination of tools

from game theory and neuroscience

iz teorije igara i neuroznanosti

to understand how people interact socially when value is on the line.

da biste razumjeli kako ljudi komuniciraju kada je u pitanju vrijednost.

So game theory is a branch of, originally, applied mathematics,

Izvorno, teorija igara je grana primijenjene matematike,

used mostly in economics and political science, a little bit in biology,

korištena uglavnom u ekonomiji, političkim znanostima i malo u biologiji,

daje nam matematičku taksonomiju drušštvenog žživota

that gives us a mathematical taxonomy of social life,

and it predicts what people are likely to do

i predviđa što ljudi obično čine

and believe others will do

i ššto vjeruju da će drugi učiniti

u slučajevima gdje postupci svakoga utječu na sve ostale.

in cases where everyone's actions affect everyone else.

Tu su mnoge stvari: natjecanje, suradnja, pogađanje,

That's a lot of things: competition, cooperation, bargaining,

games like hide-and-seek and poker.

igre poput skrivača i poker.

Here's a simple game to get us started.

Evo jednostavne igre za početak.

Everyone chooses a number from zero to 100.

Svatko bira broj od 0 do 100,

We're going to compute the average of those numbers,

izračunat ćemo prosjek tih brojeva

and whoever's closest to two-thirds of the average wins a fixed prize.

i tko bude najbližže dvotrećinskom prosjeku osvojit će nagradu.

So you want to be a little bit below the average number

Dakle, žželite biti malo ispod prosječnog broja,

but not too far below,

ali ne previšše, jednako kao ššto i svi drugi žžele biti

and everyone else wants to be a little bit below the average number as well.

malo ispod prosječnog broja.

Razmislite ššto biste mogli odabrati.

Think about what you might pick.

Dok razmišljate, ovo je pojednostavljeni model nalik

As you're thinking,

this is a toy model of something like selling in the stock market

prodaji na burzi tijekom rastućeg tržižššta. Zar ne?

during a rising market:

Ne žželite prodati prerano, jer gubite na profitu,

You don't want to sell too early, because you miss out on profits,

ali ne žželite ni previšše čekati

but you don't want to wait too late, to when everyone else sells,

dok svi drugi ne prodaju, jer biste propali.

triggering a crash.

ŽŽelite biti malo ispred konkurencije, ali ne previšše.

You want to be a little bit ahead of the competition, but not too far ahead.

Ok, evo dvije teorije kako bi ljudi o tome mogli razmiššljati,

OK, here's two theories about how people might think about this,

a potom ćemo vidjeti neke podatke.

then we'll see some data.

Dio toga zvučat će poznato, jer ste vjerojatno

Some of these will sound familiar

razmiššljali na takav način. Koristim se vlastitim mozgom za poimanje.

because you probably are thinking that way.

I'm using my brain theory to see.

A lot of people say, "I really don't know what people are going to pick,

Mnogi ljudi kažžu: "Doista ne znam ššto će ljudi odabrati,

zato mislim da će prosjek biti 50."

so I think the average will be 50" -- they're not being strategic at all --

Oni se uopšće ne koriste strategijom.

and "I'll pick two-thirds of 50, that's 33."

" I izabrat ću dvije trećine od 50, ššto je 33." To je početak.

That's a start.

Ostali ljudi koji su malo sofisticiraniji,

Other people, who are a little more sophisticated,

i koriste višše radne memorije,

using more working memory,

say, "I think people will pick 33,

kažžu: "Mislim da će ljudi odabrati 33, jer će birati odgovor na 50,

because they're going to pick a response to 50,

i zato ću odabrati 22, što je dvije trećine od 33."

and so I'll pick 22, which is two-thirds of 33."

They're doing one extra step of thinking, two steps.

Oni čine jošš jedan dodatan korak dok razmišljaju, dva koraka.

That's better.

To je bolje. I dakako, u principu,

Of course, in principle, you could do three, four or more,

možžete činiti tri, četiri ili višše,

but it starts to get very difficult.

ali počinje bivati veoma naporno.

Just like in language and other domains,

Bašš kao u jeziku i u drugim oblastima, znamo da je ljudima tešško raščlaniti

we know that it's hard for people to parse very complex sentences

veoma složžene rečenice rekurzivne strukture.

with a recursive structure.

Uzgred, to se naziva kognitivna hijerarhijska teorija.

This is called the cognitive hierarchy theory,

Na njoj sam radio sa jošš nekoliko drugih ljudi.

something I've worked on and a few other people,

and it indicates a kind of hierarchy,

Teorija upućuje na neku vrstu hijerarhije

along with some assumptions about how many people stop at different steps

s pretpostavkama o broju ljudi koji zastaju na različitim koracima

i kako na njih utječu

and how the steps of thinking are affected

mnoge zanimljive varijable i vrste ljudi, kao ššto ćemo vidjeti za minutu.

by lots of interesting variables and variant people,

as we'll see in a minute.

Vrlo različita teorija, mnogo popularnija i starija,

A very different theory, a much more popular one and an older one,

uglavnom zahvaljujući Johnu Nash-u iz znamenitog "Blistavog uma",

due largely to John Nash of "A Beautiful Mind" fame,

is what's called "equilibrium analysis."

naziva se ekvilibrijum analiza.

So if you've ever taken a game theory course at any level,

Ako ste ikad pohađali tečaj teorije igara na bilo kojoj razini,

naučili biste malo o tome.

you'll have learned a bit about this.

Ekvilibrijum je matematičko stanje u kome su svi

An equilibrium is a mathematical state

in which everybody has figured out exactly what everyone else will do.

točno shvatili ššto će svatko učiniti.

Vrlo koristan koncept, ali bihevioralno,

It is a very useful concept,

but behaviorally, it may not exactly explain

ne može točno razjasniti ššto ljudi rade

what people do the first time they play these types of economic games

kad po prvi put igraju ove ekonomske igre

or in situations in the outside world.

ili u situacijama u vanjskom svijetu.

In this case, the equilibrium makes a very bold prediction,

U ovom primjeru, teorija ekvilibrijuma vrlo smjelo predviđa

which is: everyone wants to be below everyone else,

da svatko žželi biti ispod svih ostalih,

therefore, they'll play zero.

te će zato odigrati igru ​​sa nultom sumom.

Let's see what happens.

Pogledajmo ššto se događa. Ovaj eksperiment je izveden mnogo puta.

This experiment's been done many, many times.

Neke od najranijih eksperimenata u 90-tim izveli smo

Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s

ja i Rosemarie Nagel i drugi.

by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others.

Ovo su krasni podaci o 9.000 ljudi koji su se javili

This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 people

who wrote in to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest.

na tri natječaja u novinama i časopisima.

The contest said, send in your numbers,

U natječaju je rečeno: "Poššaljite svoje brojeve

and whoever is close to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize.

i tkogod bude blizu dvotrećinskom prosjeku osvojit će veliku nagradu."

Kao ššto vidite, ovdje je mnogo podataka, ali skokovii se dobro vide.

As you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the spikes very visibly.

Postoji skok na 33. To su ljudi koji čine jedan korak.

There's a spike at 33 -- those are people doing one step.

There is another spike visible at 22.

Postoji jošš jedan skok vidljiv na 22.

Uzgred, pogledajte kako većina ljudi odabira brojeve upravo tu negdje.

Notice, by the way, most people pick numbers right around there;

Ne odaberu uvjek baš točno 33. i 22.

they don't necessarily pick exactly 33 and 22.

Ovdje okolo je malo življe.

There's something a bit noisy around it.

Ali, možžete vidjeti i skokove ondje.

But you can see those spikes on that end.

Postoji jošš jedna grupa ljudi koja se izgleda

There's another group of people

čvrsto držži ekvilibrijum analiza,

who seem to have a firm grip on equilibrium analysis,

jer su odabrali nulu ili jedan.

because they're picking zero or one.

But they lose, right?

Ali oni gube, zar ne?

Because picking a number that low is actually a bad choice

Zato ššto je odabir tako niskog broja doista lošš odabir

ukoliko se i svi drugi ljudi ne pozabave ekvilibrijum analizom.

if other people aren't doing equilibrium analysis as well.

So they're smart, but poor.

Dakle, oni su pametni, ali siromaššni.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Where are these things happening in the brain?

Gdje se to događa u mozgu?

Istražživanje Coricellija i Nagelove daje vrlo jasan, zanimljiv odgovor.

One study by Coricelli and Nagel gives a really sharp, interesting answer.

They had people play this game while they were being scanned in an fMRI,

Kod njih su ljudi igrali ovu igru

dok su ih skenirali u fMRI,

and two conditions:

u dvostrukim uvjetima. U nekim ispitivanjima,

in some trials, they're told,

rečeno im je: "Igrate s drugom osobom

"You're playing another person who's playing right now.

koja upravo sada igra i mi ćemo vas na koncu

We'll match up your behavior at the end and pay you if you win."

usporediti i platiti vam ako pobijedite."

U drugim ispitivanjima, rečeno im je: "Igrate s računalom."

In other trials, they're told, "You're playing a computer,

Odabir su pravili nasumično.

they're just choosing randomly."

Ono ššto se ovdje vidi je oduzimanje

So what you see here is a subtraction of areas

područja u kojima postoji višše možždane aktivnosti

in which there's more brain activity when you're playing people

kada igrate s ljudima u usporedbi na igru s računalom.

compared to playing the computer.

And you see activity in some regions we've seen today,

I vidite aktivnost u nekim područjima koju smo danas vidjeli,

u medijalnom prefrontalnom korteksu, dorzomedijalnom, ovdje gore je

medial prefrontal cortex, dorsomedial, up here,

ventromedial prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate,

ventromedijalni prefrontalni korteks,

prednja cingularna vijuga, područje koje uključuje

an area that's involved in lots of types of conflict resolution,

razne vrste rješšavanja konflikata, kao kada se igra "Simon Kaže,"

like if you're playing "Simon Says,"

i također desno i lijevo temporoparietalni spoj.

and also the right and left temporoparietal junction.

And these are all areas which are fairly reliably known to be

To su sve područja za koja se prilično pouzdano zna

da su dio onoga ššto se naziva kružžni tok "teorije uma",

part of what's called a "theory of mind" circuit

ili "mentalni sklop."

or "mentalizing circuit."

That is, it's a circuit that's used to imagine what other people might do.

Taj se sklop koristi da se zamisli što bi drugi ljudi mogli učiniti.

These were some of the first studies to see this tied in to game theory.

Ovo su neke od prvih studija koje su uočile

tu povezanost s teorijom igara.

What happens with these one- and two-step types?

ŠŠto se događa s ovim jedan i dva-koraka tipovima?

Tako klasificiramo ljude po tome ššto su odabrali,

So, we classify people by what they picked,

a onda pogledamo na različitosti između

and then we look at the difference between playing humans versus computers,

njihovih igara s ljudima naspram njihovih igara s računalima

which brain areas are differentially active.

i koja su područja mozga različito aktivna.

On the top, you see the one-step players.

Na vrhu vidite jedan-korak igrače.

Gotovo da nema razlike.

There's almost no difference.

To je zato ššto oni tretiraju druge ljude kao računala, te to radi i mozak.

The reason is, they're treating other people like a computer,

Kod donjih igrača vidite sve aktivnosti u dorzomedijalnom prefrontalnom korteksu.

and the brain is too.

The bottom players, you see all the activity in dorsomedial PFC.

Dakle, mi znamo da ti dva- koraka igrači rade nešto što je drukčije.

So we know the two-step players are doing something differently.

Ako biste se vratili korak natrag i rekli: "ŠŠto ćemo s tim informacijama?"

Now, what can we do with this information?

Možžda biste mogli pogledati na možždane aktivnosti i reći:

You might be able to look at brain activity and say,

"Ova će osoba biti dobar igrač pokera,"

"This person will be a good poker player," or "This person's socially naive."

ili "Ovaj je čovjek drušštveno naivan"

i možžda bi također mogli proučavati stvari

We might also be able to study things like development of adolescent brains

kao što bi bio razvoj adolescentnih mozgova

jednom kada saznamo gdje ovaj sklop postoji.

once we have an idea of where this circuitry exists.

Ok. Spremite se.

OK. Get ready.

I'm saving you some brain activity,

Ušštedet ću vam malo možždane aktivnosti,

because you don't need to use your hair detector cells.

jer ne morate koristiti svoje stanice vlasi za detekciju.

You should use those cells to think carefully about this game.

Trebali biste koristiti one stanice da bi pažžljivo razmislili o ovoj igri.

Ovo je igra međusobnog pogađanja.

This is a bargaining game.

Two players who are being scanned using EEG electrodes

Dva igrača koja će biti skenirana pomoću EEG elektroda

are going to bargain over one to six dollars.

pogađat će se oko svote od jednog do ššest dolara.

If they can do it in 10 seconds, they'll earn that money.

Ako im uspije pogoditi se za 10 sekundi, oni će zapravo zaraditi taj novac.

Ako 10 sekundi prođe, a ne dogovore se, neće dobiti niššta.

If 10 seconds go by and they haven't made a deal, they get nothing.

To je neka vrsta uzajamne pogrešške.

That's kind of a mistake together.

The twist is that one player, on the left,

Trik je u tome što je jedan igrač, s lijeve strane,

is informed about how much on each trial there is.

informiran kolika je svota svaki put u igri.

They play lots of trials with different amounts each time.

Igraju mnogo puta i svaki put su iznosi drukčiji.

In this case, they know there's four dollars.

U ovom slučaju znaju da su tu četiri dolara.

The uninformed player doesn't know, but they know the informed player knows.

Neinformiran igrač ne zna,

ali oboje znaju da informiran igrač zna.

So the uninformed player's challenge is to say,

Tako je neinformiran igrač na kušnji reći:

"Is this guy being fair,

"Da li je ovaj tip doista fer

or are they giving me a very low offer

ili mi daju veoma nisku ponudu

in order to get me to think there's only one or two dollars available to split?"

kako bi me naveli na pomisao da postoje samo jedan ili dva dolara za podijeliti? "

U tom bi slučaju mogli odbaciti pregovore i ne dogovoriti se.

in which case they might reject it and not come to a deal.

Ovdje između postoji neka tenzija u pokuššaju da se pridobije najvišše novca

So there's some tension here between trying to get the most money

nagovorom drugog igrača da vam da više.

but trying to goad the other player into giving you more.

Pogađaju se tako ššto pokazuju broj reda

And the way they bargain is to point on a number line

koji se kreće od nula do ššest dolara

that goes from zero to six dollars.

i pogađaju se oko toga koliko će neinformiran igrač dobiti,

They're bargaining over how much the uninformed player gets,

s tim da će informiranom igraču pripasti ostatak.

and the informed player will get the rest.

Dakle, ovo je kao pregovor između rukovodstva i radnika

So this is like a management-labor negotiation

u kome radnici ne znaju koliki profit

in which the workers don't know

how much profits the privately held company has,

privatna tvrtka ima, zar ne?

and they want to maybe hold out for more money,

I oni bi se htjeli po mogućnosti domognuti čim višše novca,

but the company might want to create the impression

ali tvrtka bi htjela stvoriti dojam

da je vrlo malo za podijeliti: "Dajem vam najvišše ššto mogu"

that there's very little to split: "I'm giving the most I can."

Prvo malo o ponaššanju. Gomila parova, koji igraju licem u lice.

First, some behavior: a bunch of the subject pairs play face-to-face.

We have other data where they play across computers.

Mi imamo neke druge podatke gdje igraju putem računala.

To je zanimljiva razlika, ššto možžete i zamisliti.

That's an interesting difference, as you might imagine.

Ali gomila licem-u-lice parova

But a bunch of the face-to-face pairs

je suglasna i dijeli novac ravnomjerno odista svaki put.

agree to divide the money evenly every single time.

Dosadno. To je jednostavno neuralno nezanimljivo.

Boring. It's just not interesting neurally.

Za njih je dobro, jer zarade mnogo novaca.

It's good for them -- they make a lot of money.

But we're interested in:

Ali nas interesira možžemo li što reći o tome

Can we say something about when disagreements occur versus don't occur?

kad se nesuglasice događaju, a kad ne?

So this is the other group of subjects, who often disagree.

Ovo je druga grupa ispitanika koji se često ne složže.

Dakle, oni imaju ššansu - prepucavaju se i ne slažžu se-

They bicker and disagree and end up with less money.

okončati s manje novca.

They might be eligible to be on "Real Housewives," the TV show.

Mogu možda biti prikladni za nastup u TV ššou "Prave kućanice."

(Laughter)

Na lijevoj strani vidite -

You see on the left,

when the amount to divide is one, two or three dollars,

kad je iznos za podjelu jedan, dva ili tri dolara,

they disagree about half the time;

ne slože se približžno polovinu puta,

when it's four, five, six, they agree quite often.

a kada je iznos četiri, pet, ššest, često se slože.

This turns out to be something that's predicted

Ispostavlja se da je to predvidljivo

by a very complicated type of game theory

vrlo kompliciranim tipom teorije igara,

you should come to graduate school at CalTech and learn about.

morali biste završiti studije na CalTech-u da biste o tome naučili.

Odviše je komplicirano za objasniti sada ovdje,

It's a little too complicated to explain right now,

ali teorija govori da bi se ovaj oblik na neki način trebao dogoditi.

but the theory tells you that this shape should occur.

To bi vam također mogla reći vašša intuicija.

Your intuition might tell you that, too.

Now I'm going to show you the results from the EEG recording.

Sada ću vam pokazati rezultate EEG snimanja.

Vrlo komplicirano. Na shemi je desni mozak

Very complicated.

The right brain schematic is the uninformed person,

od neinformirane osobe, a lijevi je od informirane.

and the left is the informed.

Zapamtite da smo skenirali oba mozga u isto vrijeme,

Remember that we scanned both brains at the same time,

so we can ask about time-synced activity

te možžemo iskati vremenski sinkronizirane aktivnosti

u sličnim ili različitim područjima istovremeno,

in similar or different areas simultaneously,

bašš kao kad biste žželjeli proučiti razgovor

just like if you wanted to study a conversation,

and you were scanning two people talking to each other.

te skenirali razgovor dvoje ljudi

i vi biste očekivali zajedničku aktivnost u jezičkom području

You'd expect common activity in language regions

dok oni zapravo sluššaju i komuniciraju.

when they're listening and communicating.

Strelice povezuju područja koja su aktivna u isto vrijeme,

So the arrows connect regions that are active at the same time.

a tok strelica pokazuje smjer

The direction of the arrows

flows from the region that's active first in time,

od područja koje se prvo aktivira

and the arrowhead goes to the region that's active later.

do vrha strelica, kasnije aktiviranog područja.

Tako se u ovom slučaju, ako pozorno pogledate,

So in this case, if you look carefully,

most of the arrows flow from right to left.

većina strelica kreće s desna na lijevo.

Dakle, izgleda kao da se aktivnosti neinformiranog mozga

That is, it looks as if the uninformed brain activity

is happening first,

prvo događaju,

and then it's followed by activity in the informed brain.

a potom su pak praćene aktivnošću u informiranom mozgu.

I uzgred, to su pokusi gdje su se uspjeli dogovoriti.

And by the way, these are trials where their deals were made.

This is from the first two seconds.

Ovo su prve dvije sekunde.

We haven't finished analyzing this data, so we're still peeking in,

Nismo okončali s analizom ovih podataka,

te i dalje virimo, ali u nadi

but the hope is that we can say something in the first couple of seconds

da ćemo poneššto moći reći o vjerojatnom ishodu dogovora

about whether they'll make a deal or not,

u prvih nekoliko sekundi,

which could be very useful in thinking about avoiding litigation

ššto bi moglo biti vrlo korisno za izbjegavanje parnice,

ružžnih razvoda i sličnog.

and ugly divorces and things like that.

To su sve slučajevi u kojima se gubi mnogo vrijednosti

Those are all cases in which a lot of value is lost by delay and strikes.

zbog zakaššnjenja i protesta.

Here's the case where the disagreements occur.

Evo slučaja gdje se nesuglasice pojavljuju.

You can see it looks different than the one before.

Vidi se već po izgledu da je drukčiji od prethodnog.

Mnogo je višše strelica.

There's a lot more arrows.

That means that the brains are synced up more closely

To znači da se mozak sinkronizira

bliže u smislu simultane aktivnosti,

in terms of simultaneous activity,

and the arrows flow clearly from left to right.

i strelice jasno prelaze s lijeva na desno.

To znači kao da se informiran mozak odlučuje:

That is, the informed brain seems to be deciding,

"ovdje se vjerojatno nećemo dogovoriti."

"We're probably not going to make a deal here."

And then later, there's activity in the uninformed brain.

A tek potom ta je aktivnost u neinformiranom mozgu.

Next, I'm going to introduce you to some relatives.

Nadalje ću vas upoznati s nekim srodnicima.

Dlakavi su, smrdljivi, brzi i jaki.

They're hairy, smelly, fast and strong.

You might be thinking back to your last Thanksgiving.

Pomislit ćete možžda na vašš posljednji Dan zahvalnosti.

(Laughter)

Maybe, if you had a chimpanzee with you.

Možžda, ako su sa vama bile čimpanze.

Charles Darwin and I and you broke off from the family tree from chimpanzees

Charles Darwin, ja i vi smo prekinuli to obiteljsko stablo

s čimpanzama prije oko pet milijuna godina.

about five million years ago.

They're still our closest genetic kin.

I dalje su to našši genetski najbližži srodnici.

We share 98.8 percent of the genes.

Dijelimo 98,8 posto gena.

We share more genes with them than zebras do with horses.

Dijelimo višše gena sa njima nego zebre sa konjima.

And we're also their closest cousin.

I mi smo također njihovi najbližži srodnici.

They have more genetic relation to us than to gorillas.

Višše su genetski povezani s nama nego s gorilama.

So, how humans and chimpanzees behave differently

Različito ponaššanje ljudi i čimpanza

might tell us a lot about brain evolution.

moglo bi nam reći mnogo o evoluciji mozga.

This is an amazing memory test

Ovo je nevjerojatan test pamćenja

from [Kyoto], Japan, the Primate Research Institute,

Instituta za istražživanje primata iz Nagoje u Japanu,

where they've done a lot of this research.

gdje su napravili mnoga istražživanja.

This goes back a ways. They're interested in working memory.

Ovo ide daleko unatrag. Zainteresirani su za radnu memoriju.

Čimpanza će opaziti, gledajte pozorno,

The chimp will see, watch carefully,

ugledat će ekspoziciju od 200 milisekundi

they'll see 200 milliseconds' exposure -- that's fast, eight movie frames --

- to je brzo, to je osam filmskih kadrova -

of numbers one, two, three, four, five.

brojeve jedan, dva, tri, četiri, pet.

Then they disappear and are replaced by squares,

Zatim oni nestaju i zamijenjeni su praznim kvadratima

and they have to press the squares

koje je potrebno pritisnuti odgovarajuće

that correspond to the numbers from low to high

nestalim brojevima od niskog do visokog

to get an apple reward.

da bi se dobila nagrada u vidu jabuke.

Pogledajmo kako to oni rade.

Let's see how they can do it.

This is a young chimp.

Ovo je mlad čimpanza. Mladi

The young ones are better than the old ones, just like humans.

su bolji od starih, bašš kao i kod ljudi.

(Laughter)

I imaju veliko iskustvo, jer su ovo radili

And they're highly experienced,

tisućama i tisućama puta.

they've done this thousands of times.

Očito vježba ima veliki učinak, ššto možžete zamisliti.

Obviously there's a big training effect, as you can imagine.

(Smijeh)

(Laughter)

You can see they're very blasé and effortless.

Vidi se da su vrlo ravnodušni i to rade bez napora.

Not only can they do it very well, they do it in a sort of lazy way.

Ne samo da to rade jako dobro, već i na neki lijeni način.

(Laughter)

Who thinks you could beat the chimps?

Zar ne? Tko misli da možže pobijediti čimpanze?

(Laughter)

Wrong. (Laughter)

Pogreššno. (Smijeh)

We can try. We'll try. Maybe we'll try.

Možžemo pokuššati. Pokuššat ćemo. Možžda ćemo pokuššati.

OK, so the next part of the study I'm going to go quickly through

Ok, sljedeći dio ove studije

kroz koju ću preletjeti

is based on an idea of Tetsuro Matsuzawa.

zasnovan je na ideji Tetsuro Matsuzawa.

He had a bold idea he called the "cognitive trade-off hypothesis."

On je imao smjelu ideju koju je nazvao kognitivna hipoteza razmjene.

Znamo da su čimpanze hitrije i jače.

We know chimps are faster and stronger; they're also obsessed with status.

Također su vrlo opsjednute statusom.

Njegova ideja je bila da su oni možžda očuvali možždane aktivnosti

His thought was, maybe they've preserved brain activities

koje kroz praksu razvijaju,

and practice them in development

that are really, really important to them to negotiate status and to win,

jer je za njih doista, doista važno

pregovarati se o statusu i pobijediti,

which is something like strategic thinking during competition.

ššto je nalik strategijskom razmiššljanju tijekom natjecanja.

So we're going to check that out

To ćemo provjeriti

by having the chimps actually play a game

tako ššto će čimpanze odigrati igru

by touching two touch screens.

dodirivanjem dva na dodir osjetljiva ekrana.

The chimps are interacting with each other through the computers.

Čimpanze zapravo međusobno komuniciraju preko kompjutera.

Pritiskat će lijevo ili desno.

They'll press left or right.

One chimp is called a matcher; they win if they press left-left,

Jedan čimpanza se zove mečer.

Oni pobjeđuju ako pritisnu lijevo, lijevo,

like a seeker finding someone in hide-and-seek, or right-right.

kao onaj ššto pronalazi u igri skrivača, ili desno, desno.

The mismatcher wants to mismatch;

Kontramečer žželi oponirati.

Oni žžele pritisnuti suprotni ekran od čimpanza.

they want to press the opposite screen of the chimp.

And the rewards are apple cube rewards.

Nagrade su kocke jabuke.

So here's how game theorists look at these data.

Evo kako teoretičari igara gledaju na ove podatke.

This is a graph of the percentage of times

Ovo je grafikon postotka koliko je puta

the matcher picked right on the x-axis

mečer izabrao desno na x-osi

and the percentage of times they picked right

i postotak koliko je puta predvidio desno

kontramečer na y-osi.

by the mismatcher on the y-axis.

So a point here is the behavior by a pair of players,

Poenta je ovdje ponaššanje para igrača,

one trying to match, one trying to mismatch.

jedan pokuššava odigrati, drugi pokuššava odgovoriti.

The NE square in the middle -- actually, NE, CH and QRE --

"NE" kvadrat u sredini - u stvari "NE, CH" i "QRE" -

those are three different theories of Nash equilibrium and others,

to su tri različite teorije Neššovog ekvilibrijuma i drugih,

koje vam govore ššto teorija predviđa,

tells you what the theory predicts,

which is that they should match 50-50,

a to je da bi oni trebali odigrati 50-50,

because if you play left too much, for example,

jer, primjerice, ako odigrate previšše puta lijevo,

I can exploit that if I'm the mismatcher by then playing right.

ja to mogu iskoristiti, ako sam kontramečer, igrajući desno.

And as you can see, the chimps -- each chimp is one triangle --

I kao ššto vidite, čimpanze, svaki od njih je jedan trokut,

are circled around, hovering around that prediction.

zaokružžene su, kreću se oko te prognoze.

Sada ćemo prijeći na naplatu.

Now we move the payoffs.

We're going to make the left-left payoff for the matcher a little higher.

Mi ćemo zapravo za lijevo-lijevo malo povisiti mečeru isplatu.

Now they get three apple cubes.

Sada su dobili tri kocke jabuke.

Game theoretically, that should make the mismatcher's behavior shift:

Po teoriji igara to bi trebalo da napravi zaokret u ponaššanju kontramečera,

jer ono ššto se događa jest da će on pomisliti:

the mismatcher will think, "Oh, this guy's going to go for the big reward,

oh, ovaj tip pretendira na veliku nagradu,

te ću zato ići desno, ne bi li bio siguran da je neće dobiti.

so I'll go to the right, make sure he doesn't get it."

I kao ššto vidite, njihovo ponaššanje se pomiče

And as you can see, their behavior moves up

u pravcu ove promjene u Neššovom ekvilibrijumu.

in the direction of this change in the Nash equilibrium.

Finally, we changed the payoffs one more time.

Na koncu smo jošš jednom promijenili isplate.

Now it's four apple cubes,

Sada su četiri kocke jabuke

and their behavior again moves towards the Nash equilibrium.

i njihovo ponaššanje se ponovo kreće ka Neššovom ekvilibrijumu.

To je rasprššeno okolo, ali ako gledate prosjek,

It's sprinkled around, but if you average the chimps out,

oni su doista vrlo blizu, unutar 0.01.

they're really close, within .01.

Oni su zapravo bližži od bilo koje vrste koju smo promatrali.

They're actually closer than any species we've observed.

What about humans? You think you're smarter than a chimpanzee?

Kako je s ljudima? Mislite da ste pametniji od čimpanza?

Evo dvije grupe ljudi u zelenom i plavom.

Here's two human groups in green and blue.

Oni su bliže 50-50. Ne reagiraju na isplate bašš toliko,

They're closer to 50-50; they're not responding to payoffs as closely.

And also if you study their learning in the game,

i također ako proučavate njihovo učenje u igri,

nisu toliko osjetljivi na prethodne nagrade.

they aren't as sensitive to previous rewards.

Čimpanze igraju bolje od ljudi,

The chimps play better than the humans, in terms of adhering to game theory.

bolje u smislu pridržavanja teoriji igara.

Radi se o dvije različite grupe ljudi

And these are two different groups of humans, from Japan and Africa;

iz Japana i iz Afrike. Oni ponavljaju posve lijepo.

they replicate quite nicely.

Nitko od njih nije ni blizu čimpanzama.

None of them are close to where the chimps are.

Dakle, evo nekoliko stvari koje smo danas naučili.

So, some things we learned:

people seem to do a limited amount of strategic thinking using theory of mind.

Ljudi se izgleda ograničeno koriste strategijskim razmiššljanjem

koristeći teoriju uma.

We have preliminary evidence from bargaining

Imamo neke preliminarne dokaze kada se radi o pogađanju

that early warning signs in the brain might be used to predict

da bi se rani znaci upozorenja u mozgu mogli koristiti za predviđanje

da li će doći do ne slaganja koje je loše i povlači troškove

whether there'll be a bad disagreement that costs money,

i da su čimpanze bolji natjecatelji od ljudi,

and chimps are "better" competitors than humans,

sudeći po teoriji igara.

as judged by game theory.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)