David Deutsch: A new way to explain explanation

209,167 views ・ 2009-10-26

TED


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Prevoditelj: Zvonimir Mimica Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:18
I'm sure that,
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Siguran sam da, kroz sto tisuća neobičnih godina
00:20
throughout the 100,000-odd years of our species' existence
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postojanja naše vrste,
00:26
and even before,
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a čak i prije toga,
00:29
our ancestors looked up at the night sky and wondered what stars are --
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naši preci su gledali prema noćnom nebu
i pitali se što su to zvijezde.
00:34
wondering, therefore,
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Pitali su se, stoga,
kako objasniti ono što su vidjeli
00:37
how to explain what they saw
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00:40
in terms of things unseen.
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koristeći pojmove neviđenoga.
Naravno, većina ljudi
00:47
OK, so, most people only wondered that occasionally, like today,
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se samo pitala o tome povremeno, kao i danas,
00:52
in breaks from whatever normally preoccupied them.
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u stankama između onoga
što ih je uobičajeno zaokupljalo.
00:56
But what normally preoccupied them also involved yearning to know.
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Ali, ono što ih je obično zaokupljalo
također je uključivalo i žudnju za znanjem.
01:03
They wished they knew
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Oni su željeli znati
01:06
how to prevent their food supply from sometimes failing,
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kako spriječiti da im opskrba hrane
povremeno zakaže,
01:10
and how they could rest when they were tired
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kako bi se mogli odmarati kad su bili umorni,
01:13
without risking starvation,
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bez preuzimanja rizika gladovanja,
01:17
be warmer, cooler, safer,
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kako biti toplijim, hladnijim, sigurnijim,
01:21
in less pain.
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s manje bola.
01:23
I bet those prehistoric cave artists would have loved to know
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Kladim se da su oni prapovijesni špiljski umjetnici
željeli zbilja znati
01:28
how to draw better.
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kako bolje crtati.
U svakom aspektu njihovih života,
01:31
(Laughter)
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01:32
In every aspect of their lives,
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01:35
they wished for progress, just as we do.
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željeli su napredovati, kao što i mi želimo.
01:40
But they failed, almost completely, to make any.
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Međutim, nisu uspjeli, gotovo u potpunosti, ostvariti bilo kakav napredak.
01:46
They didn't know how to.
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Nisu znali kako.
01:49
Discoveries like fire happened so rarely
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Otkrića, kao što je vatra,
su se događala tako rijetko, da s gledišta pojedinca,
01:55
that, from an individual's point of view,
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01:57
the world never improved.
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svijet nije nikako napredovao.
02:00
Nothing new was learned.
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Ništa novo nije naučeno.
02:04
The first clue to the origin of starlight
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Prva indicija o porijeklu zvjezdanog svjetla
02:07
happened as recently as 1899:
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dogodila se 1899., zapravo nedavno: radioaktivnost.
02:12
radioactivity.
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02:14
And within 40 years,
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Unutar 40 godina,
02:16
physicists discovered the whole explanation,
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fizičari su otkrili cjelovito objašnjenje,
02:20
expressed, as usual, in elegant symbols.
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prikazano, kao i obično, u obliku elegantnih simbola.
02:25
But never mind the symbols.
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Ali, ostavimo po strani simbole.
02:27
Think how many discoveries they represent.
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Razmislite, koliko mnogo otkrića
oni predstavljaju.
02:33
Nuclei and nuclear reactions, of course.
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Jezgru i nuklearne reakcije, naravno.
02:36
But isotopes,
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Ali i izotope, čestice elektriciteta,
02:39
particles of electricity,
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02:43
antimatter,
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antimateriju,
02:47
neutrinos,
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neutrine,
02:49
the conversion of mass to energy -- that's E=mc2 --
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pretvaranje mase u energiju -- odnosno E=mc^2 --
02:53
gamma rays,
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gama zrake,
02:55
transmutation.
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transmutaciju.
02:59
That ancient dream that had always eluded the alchemists
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Taj drevni san, koji je oduvijek izluđivao alkemičare,
03:04
was achieved through these same theories
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postignut je posredstvom istih ovih teorija
03:06
that explained starlight and other ancient mysteries
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koje su objasnile i zvjezdani sjaj,
kao i druge drevne misterije,
03:11
and new, unexpected phenomena.
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a i nove, neočekivane fenomene.
03:14
That all that, discovered in 40 years,
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Sve to, otkriveno u 40 godina,
03:18
had not been in the previous hundred thousand
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nije bilo [otkriveno] u prethodnih sto tisuća godina,
03:21
was not for lack of thinking
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ne zbog izostanka razmišljanja
03:25
about stars and all those other urgent problems they had.
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o zvijezdama i svim onim drugim gorućim problemima koje su imali.
Čak su i došli do odgovora,
03:30
They even arrived at answers, such as myths,
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poput mitova,
03:34
that dominated their lives,
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koji su dominirali njihovim životima,
03:36
yet bore almost no resemblance to the truth.
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mada, bez skoro ikakve sličnosti
s istinom.
03:42
The tragedy of that protracted stagnation
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Tragedija toga, produžila je stagnaciju,
03:47
isn't sufficiently recognized, I think.
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a čini mi se da to nije dovoljno prepoznato.
03:49
These were people with brains of essentially the same design
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To su bili ljudi s mozgovima,
suštinski iste strukture,
03:54
that eventually did discover all those things.
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koji su u konačnici i otkrili sve one stvari.
03:59
But that ability to make progress
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Ali sposobnost postizanja napretka
04:03
remained almost unused,
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ostala je skoro neiskorištena,
04:06
until the event that revolutionized the human condition
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sve do događaja koji je
preinačio ljudske potencijale
i promijenio svijet.
04:12
and changed the universe.
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04:13
Or so we should hope,
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Ili se barem nadamo da jest.
04:15
because that event was the scientific revolution,
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A taj događaj bila je
znanstvena revolucija,
04:19
ever since which our knowledge of the physical world
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sve od kada je naše poznavanje
fizičkog svijeta
04:23
and of how to adapt it to our wishes
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i načina kako ga prilagoditi našim željama
04:27
has been growing relentlessly.
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neumorno raslo.
04:29
Now, what had changed?
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I sad, što se promijenilo?
04:32
What were people now doing for the first time
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Što su tada ljudi po prvi put radili,
04:34
that made that difference between stagnation
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što je napravilo tu razliku
između stagnacije
04:38
and rapid, open-ended discovery?
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i brzog, neograničenog otkrivanja?
04:42
How to make that difference
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Kako napraviti tu razliku
04:44
is surely the most important universal truth
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je zasigurno najvažnija univerzalna istina
04:48
that it's possible to know.
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koju se može spoznati.
04:50
And worryingly, there's no consensus about what it is.
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Zabrinjavajuće je da nema konsenzusa o tome koja je to istina.
04:55
So, I'll tell you.
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Pa, reći ću vam.
04:57
(Laughter)
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Ali, morat ću se vratiti malo unatrag.
04:58
But I'll have to backtrack a little first.
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05:01
Before the scientific revolution,
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Prije znanstvene revolucije,
05:04
they believed that everything important, knowable,
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vjerovali su da je sve važno, spoznatljivo,
05:07
was already known,
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već poznato,
05:09
enshrined in ancient writings, institutions
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sadržano u drevnim napisima, institucijama,
05:12
and in some genuinely useful rules of thumb --
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kao i u nekim istinski korisnim pravilima --
05:15
which were, however, entrenched as dogmas,
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koja su bila, ipak, ukorijenjena kao dogme,
05:19
along with many falsehoods.
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zajedno s mnogim neistinama.
05:21
So, they believed that knowledge came from authorities
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Tako su vjerovali da je znanje dolazilo od autoriteta,
05:25
that actually knew very little.
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koji su u biti vrlo malo znali.
05:28
And therefore,
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I stoga je napredak
05:30
progress depended on learning how to reject
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ovisio o učenju kako odbaciti
05:34
the authority of learned men, the priests, traditions and rulers,
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autoritet učenih ljudi,
svećenika, tradicija i vladara.
05:41
which is why the scientific revolution had to have a wider context:
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To je razlog zbog kojeg je znanstvena revolucija
morala imati širi kontekts:
05:46
the Enlightenment, a revolution in how people sought knowledge,
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prosvjetiteljstvo, revolucija u okviru koje su
ljudi tražili znanje,
05:53
trying not to rely on authority.
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pokušavajući se ne oslanjati na autoritet.
05:56
"Take no one's word for it."
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"Nikome nemojte vjerovati na riječ."
05:58
But that can't be what made the difference.
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Ali to ne može biti ono što je napravilo razliku.
06:02
Authorities had been rejected before, many times.
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Autoriteti su bili odbacivani i prije, mnogo puta.
06:04
And that rarely, if ever,
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I to je rijetko, ako i ikad,
prouzročilo nešto poput znanstvene revolucije.
06:07
caused anything like the scientific revolution.
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06:10
At the time, what they thought distinguished science
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U to vrijeme, ono što su mislili
da razlikuje znanost
06:14
was a radical idea about things unseen,
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bila je radikalna ideja o neviđenim stvarima,
06:18
known as empiricism --
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poznata kao empirizam.
06:21
all knowledge derives from the senses.
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Svo znanje prozlazi iz osjetila.
06:26
Well, we've seen that that can't be true.
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Pa, vidjeli smo da to ne može biti istina.
06:29
It did help by promoting observation and experiment.
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Pomoglo je u promicanju
opažanja i eksperimenta.
06:35
But, from the outset,
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Ali, od početka je bilo očigledno
06:36
it was obvious that there was something horribly wrong with it.
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da je bilo nešto užasno pogrešno u tome.
06:40
Knowledge comes from the senses?
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Znanje dolazi od osjetila.
06:42
In what language?
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U kojem jeziku? Zasigurno ne u jeziku matematike,
06:43
Certainly not the language of mathematics, in which, Galileo rightly said,
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u kojem je, kako je Galileo ispravno rekao,
06:48
the book of nature is written.
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napisana knjiga prirode.
06:51
Look at the world.
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Pogledajte svijet. Ne vidite jednadžbe
06:52
You don't see equations carved on the mountainsides.
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isklesane na obroncima planina.
06:57
If you did, it would be because people had carved them.
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Kad biste ih vidjeli, to bi bilo stoga jer su ih ljudi
isklesali.
07:00
By the way, why don't we do that?
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Usput rečeno, zašto to ne radimo?
07:03
(Laughter)
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07:04
What's wrong with us?
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Što nije u redu s nama?
07:05
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:07
Empiricism is inadequate
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Empirizam je nedovoljan,
07:09
because, well, scientific theories explain the seen in terms of the unseen.
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jer, pa,
znanstvene teorije objašnjavaju viđeno u terminima neviđenoga.
07:16
And the unseen, you have to admit,
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A neviđeno, morate priznati,
07:18
doesn't come to us through the senses.
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ne dolazi do nas putem osjetila.
07:20
We don't see those nuclear reactions in stars.
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Mi ne vidimo one nuklearne reakcije u zvijezdama.
07:24
We don't see the origin of species.
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Ne vidimo porijeklo vrsta.
07:27
We don't see the curvature of space-time,
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Ne vidimo zakrivljenost prostor-vremena,
07:31
and other universes.
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niti druge svemire.
07:33
But we know about those things.
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Ali znamo o tim stvarima.
07:36
How?
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Kako?
07:38
Well, the classic empiricist answer is induction --
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Pa, klasični odgovor empirista je indukcija.
07:43
the unseen resembles the seen.
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Neviđeno je slično viđenom.
07:47
But it doesn't.
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Ali, zapravo, nije.
07:49
You know what the clinching evidence was that space-time is curved?
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Znate što je bio ključni dokaz
da je prostor-vrijeme zakrivljeno.
07:54
It was a photograph -- not of space-time,
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To je bila fotografija, ne prostor-vremena,
07:57
but of an eclipse, with a dot there rather than there.
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već pomrčina, s točkom tamo, umjesto onamo.
08:01
And the evidence for evolution?
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A dokaz evolucije?
08:03
Some rocks and some finches.
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Nekoliko stijena i nekoliko zeba.
08:06
And parallel universes?
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A paralelni svemiri? Ponovo: točke tamo,
08:08
Again: dots there rather than there, on a screen.
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umjesto onamo, na ekranu.
08:11
What we see in all these cases
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Ono što vidimo, u svim ovim slučajevima,
08:14
bears no resemblance to the reality that we conclude is responsible --
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nema nikakve sličnosti s realnošću
za koju zaključujemo da je odgovorna --
samo dugi niz teoretskog rezoniranja
08:21
only a long chain of theoretical reasoning and interpretation connects them.
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i interpretiranja, ono je što ih spaja.
"Ah", kažu kreacionisti,
08:27
"Ah!" say creationists.
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08:29
"So you admit it's all interpretation.
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"Dakle, priznajete da je sve interpretacija.
08:31
No one's ever seen evolution.
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Nitko nikada nije vidio evoluciju.
08:34
We see rocks.
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Vidimo stijene.
08:36
You have your interpretation. We have ours.
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Vi imate svoje interpretacije. Mi imamo svoje.
08:39
Yours comes from guesswork; ours, from the Bible."
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Vaše proizlaze iz nagađanja;
naše, iz Biblije."
08:43
But what creationist and empiricists both ignore
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Ali, ono što i kreacionisti i empiristi ignoriraju
08:49
is that, in that sense,
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jest da, u tom smislu,
08:51
no one's ever seen a Bible either,
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nitko, također, ni Bibliju nije vidio,
08:54
that the eye only detects light, which we don't perceive.
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da oko samo detektira svjetlo, kojeg ne shvaćamo.
08:58
Brains only detect nerve impulses.
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Mozgovi samo detektiraju impulse živaca.
09:01
And they don't perceive even those as what they really are,
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I ne shvaćaju čak ni one kakvi u biti jesu,
09:04
namely electrical crackles.
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odnosno električne praskove.
Dakle, ništa ne shvaćamo onako kakvo u stvarnosti jest.
09:07
So we perceive nothing as what it really is.
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09:11
Our connection to reality is never just perception.
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Naša veza s realnošću
nikada nije samo percepcija.
09:16
It's always, as Karl Popper put it,
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Uvijek je, kako kaže Karl Popper,
09:20
theory-laden.
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natovarena teorijom.
09:23
Scientific knowledge isn't derived from anything.
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Znanstveno znanje ne proizlazi iz bilo čega.
09:25
Like all knowledge, it's conjectural, guesswork,
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Kao i svo znanje. Ono je pretpostavljeno, nagađajuće,
09:31
tested by observation,
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provjeravano opažanjem,
09:33
not derived from it.
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a ne izvedeno iz njega.
09:37
So, were testable conjectures the great innovation
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Dakle, jesu li provjerljive pretpostavke bile
09:40
that opened the intellectual prison gates?
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velika inovacija koja je otvorila vrata intelektualnog zatvora?
09:44
No, contrary to what's usually said, testability is common
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Ne. Suprotno od onoga što se obično govori,
provjerljivost je uobičajena
09:49
in myths and all sorts of other irrational modes of thinking.
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u mitovima i svim vrstama drugih iracionalnih načina razmišljanja.
09:53
Any crank claiming the sun will go out next Tuesday
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Svaki osobenjak koji tvrdi da će se sunce ugasiti slijedećeg utorka
09:57
has got a testable prediction.
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ima provjerljivo predviđanje.
10:00
Consider the ancient Greek myth explaining seasons.
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Uzmite u obzir drevni grčki mit
koji objašnjava godišnja doba.
10:06
Hades, god of the underworld,
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Had, Bog podzemlja,
oteo je Perseponu, Boginju proljeća,
10:09
kidnaps Persephone, the goddess of spring,
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10:11
and negotiates a forced marriage contract, requiring her to return regularly,
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i pregovara o ugovoranju prisilnog braka,
tražeći od nje da se redovito vraća, a zatim je pušta.
10:17
and lets her go.
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10:18
And each year,
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I svake godine,
10:20
she is magically compelled to return.
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ona je magično primorana vraćati se.
10:23
And her mother, Demeter,
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A njena majka, Demetra,
10:25
goddess of the earth,
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Boginja Zemlje,
10:27
is sad, and makes it cold and barren.
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je tužna, te stvara hladnoću i pustoš.
10:32
That myth is testable.
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Taj mit je provjerljiv.
10:35
If winter is caused by Demeter's sadness,
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Ukoliko je zima prouzročena Demetrinom tugom,
10:39
then it must happen everywhere on earth simultaneously.
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onda se to mora događati svugdje na Zemlji, u isto vrijeme.
10:43
So if the ancient Greeks had only known
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Tako, da su drevni Grci samo znali da je Australija
10:45
that Australia is at its warmest when Demeter is at her saddest ...
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najtoplija kad je Demetra najtužnija,
10:49
(Laughter)
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10:50
they'd have known that their theory is false.
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tada bi znali da je njihova teorija pogrešna.
10:53
(Laughter)
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Dakle, što je bilo pogrešno s tim mitom,
10:54
So, what was wrong with that myth
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10:56
and with all prescientific thinking?
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kao i sa svim predznanstvenim razmišljanjem,
10:59
And what, then, made that momentous difference?
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i što je, onda, napravilo trenutnu razliku?
11:04
I think there's one thing you have to care about
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Mislim da ima jedna stvar do koje bi vam trebalo biti stalo.
A iz nje proizlazi
11:09
and that implies testability, the scientific method,
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provjerljivost, znanstvena metoda,
11:13
the Enlightenment and everything.
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prosvjetiteljstvo i sve ostalo.
11:15
And here's the crucial thing:
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I sad dolazimo do ključne stvari.
11:17
there is such a thing as a defect in a story.
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Postoji nešto kao manjkavost priče.
11:20
I don't just mean a logical defect.
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Ne mislim samo na logičku manjkavost. Mislim na loše objašnjenje.
11:21
I mean a bad explanation.
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11:25
What does that mean?
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Što to znači? Pa, objašnjenje
11:26
Well, an explanation is an assertion about what's there, unseen,
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je tvrdnja o onome što je tamo, o neviđenom,
11:31
that accounts for what's seen;
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koja uzima u obzir ono što je viđeno.
11:34
because the explanatory role of Persephone's marriage contract
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Jer, uloga objašnjavanja
bračnog ugovora Persepone
11:39
could be played equally well
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mogla bi se odigravati podjednako dobro
11:41
by infinitely many other ad hoc entities.
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putem beskonačno mnogo drugih
ad hoc cjelina.
11:45
Why a marriage contract and not any other reason
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Zašto bračni ugovor, a ne neki drugi razlog
11:48
for regular annual action?
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za redovito godišnje djelovanje?
11:52
Here's one: Persephone wasn't released.
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Evo jednog. Persepona nije otpuštena.
11:55
She escaped, and returns every spring to take revenge on Hades,
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Pobjegla je i vraća se svakog proljeća
kako bi se osvetila Hadu,
12:01
with her spring powers.
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sa svojim proljetnim moćima.
12:03
She cools his domain with spring air,
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Ona hladi njegov utjecaj proljetnim zrakom,
12:08
venting heat up to the surface, creating summer.
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propuhivajući toplinu gore do površine, stvarajući ljeto.
12:12
That accounts for the same phenomena as the original myth.
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To će dovesti do istog fenomena kao i izvorni mit.
12:16
It's equally testable.
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I jednako je provjerljivo.
12:19
Yet what it asserts about reality is, in many ways, the opposite.
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Ipak, ono što tvrdi o realnosti
jest, na mnoge načine, suprotno.
12:24
And that's possible
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A to je moguće zbog toga što
12:26
because the details of the original myth are unrelated to seasons,
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detalji izvornog mita
nisu u svezi s godišnjim dobima,
12:31
except via the myth itself.
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osim posredstvom samog mita.
12:35
This easy variability
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Ova laka varijabilnost
12:38
is the sign of a bad explanation,
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je znak lošeg objašnjenja.
12:42
because, without a functional reason
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Jer, bez funkcionalnog razloga za preferenciju
12:45
to prefer one of countless variants,
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jedne od bezbrojnih varijanti,
12:51
advocating one of them in preference to the others
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braniti jednu od njih, pretpostavljati je drugima,
12:53
is irrational.
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je iracionalno.
12:55
So, for the essence of what makes the difference to enable progress,
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Tako, radi biti onoga
što čini razliku koja omogućuje napredak,
13:00
seek good explanations,
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tražite dobra objašnjenja,
13:02
the ones that can't be easily varied,
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ona koja nije jednostavno mijenjati,
13:05
while still explaining the phenomena.
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dok u isto vrijeme objašnjavaju fenomen.
13:10
Now our current explanation of seasons
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I sad, naše trenutno objašnjenje godišnjih doba
13:13
is that the Earth's axis is tilted like that,
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jest da se Zemljine osi naginju tako
13:17
so each hemisphere tilts towards the sun for half the year,
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da se svaka hemisfera naginje prema suncu polovicu godine,
13:20
and away for the other half.
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a od sunca drugu polovicu.
13:23
[Not to scale!]
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Najbolje da to razglasite.
13:24
Better put that up.
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13:25
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
13:26
That's a good explanation:
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To je dobro objašnjenje: teško ga je mijenjati,
13:30
hard to vary,
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13:31
because every detail plays a functional role.
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jer svaki detalj igra funkcionalnu ulogu.
13:34
For instance, we know, independently of seasons,
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Primjerice, znamo, neovisno o godišnjim dobima,
13:37
that surfaces tilted away from radiant heat are heated less,
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da se površine koje su udaljeno nagnute
od toplinskog zračenja manje zagrijavaju,
13:42
and that a spinning sphere, in space,
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a da okrećuća kugla, u prostoru,
13:45
points in a constant direction.
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pokazuje stalno u istom pravcu.
13:48
And the tilt also explains
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A naginjanje također objašnjava
13:51
the sun's angle of elevation at different times of year,
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kut nagiba sunca u različitim djelovima godine,
13:55
and predicts that the seasons will be out of phase in the two hemispheres.
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te predviđa da će godišnja doba
biti izvan faze u dvjema hemisferama.
14:00
If they'd been observed in phase,
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Da su bile opažene u fazi,
14:02
the theory would have been refuted.
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teorija bi bila odbačena.
14:04
But now, the fact that it's also a good explanation, hard to vary,
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Ali ovako, činjenica da je to također dobro objašnjenje,
teško promjenjivo, čini ključnu razliku.
14:10
makes the crucial difference.
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14:14
If the ancient Greeks had found out about seasons in Australia,
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Da su drevni Grci otkrili podatak
o godišnjim dobima u Australiji,
14:19
they could have easily varied their myth to predict that.
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mogli su lako promijeniti svoj mit
kako bi to predvidjeli.
14:23
For instance, when Demeter's upset,
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Primjerice, kad je Demetra uznemirena,
14:25
she banishes heat from her vicinity into the other hemisphere,
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ona protjera vrućinu iz svoje blizine
u drugu hemisferu, gdje to stvara ljeto.
14:30
where it makes summer.
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14:31
So, being proved wrong by observation
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I tako, kad bi im se opažanjem dokazalo da su u krivu,
14:34
and changing their theory accordingly
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te kada bi sukladno tome promijenili teoriju,
14:36
still wouldn't have got the ancient Greeks one jot closer to understanding seasons,
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to drevne Grge još uvijek ne bi
ni milimetar približilo razumijevanju godišnjih doba,
14:42
because their explanation was bad -- easy to vary.
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jer je njihovo objašnjenje bilo loše: jednostavno za mijenjanje.
14:45
And it's only when an explanation is good
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I samo je onda kad je objašnjenje dobro
14:48
that it even matters whether it's testable.
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uopće i bitno što je provjerljivo.
Da je teorija o naginjanju osi odbačena,
14:51
If the axis-tilt theory had been refuted,
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14:53
its defenders would have had nowhere to go.
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njeni branitelji ne bi znali kamo dalje krenuti.
14:55
No easily implemented change
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Nijedna jednostavno primijenjena promjena
14:58
could make that tilt cause the same seasons in both hemispheres.
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ne bi mogla učiniti da naginjanje
prouzroči ista godišnja doba u obje hemisfere.
15:05
The search for hard-to-vary explanations is the origin of all progress.
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Potraga za teško promjenjivim objašnjenjima
je ishodište svekolikog napretka.
15:11
It's the basic regulating principle of the Enlightenment.
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To je osnovni regulatorni princip
prosvjetiteljstva.
15:16
So, in science, two false approaches blight progress.
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I tako, u znanosti, dva pogrešna pristupa štete napretku.
15:20
One's well-known: untestable theories.
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Jedan je dobro poznat: neprovjerljive teorije.
15:23
But the more important one is explanationless theories.
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Ali još važniji pristup su neobjašnjive teorije.
15:27
Whenever you're told that some existing statistical trend will continue
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Kad god vam kažu da će se neki postojeći statistički trend nastaviti,
15:31
but you aren't given a hard-to-vary account of what causes that trend,
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ali vam nije dat i teško promjenjiv razlog
promjene toga trenda,
15:37
you're being told a wizard did it.
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govori vam se, zapravo, da je to djelo čarobnjaka.
15:39
When you are told that carrots have human rights
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Kad vam kažu da mrkve imaju ljudska prava,
15:42
because they share half our genes,
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jer dijele polovicu naših gena --
15:44
but not how gene percentages confer rights -- wizard.
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ali sada, kako postoci gena daju prava -- čarobnjak.
15:50
When someone announces that the nature-nurture debate
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Kad netko objavi da je rasprava "priroda-odgoj"
15:54
has been settled
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riješena, jer postoje dokazi
15:55
because there's evidence that a given percentage of our political opinions
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da je određeni postotak naših
političkih mišljenja genetski naslijeđen,
16:00
are genetically inherited,
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16:02
but they don't explain how genes cause opinions,
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ali ne objašnjavaju kako geni prouzrokuju mišljenja,
16:06
they've settled nothing.
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zapravo nisu riješili ništa. Oni govore da su naša
16:07
They're saying that our opinions are caused by wizards,
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mišljenja prouzrokovana čarobnjacima,
a pretpostavljeno i njihova vlastita.
16:11
and presumably, so are their own.
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16:12
(Laughter)
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16:13
That the truth consists of hard-to-vary assertions about reality
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Da se istina sastoji od
teško promjenjivih tvrdnji o realnosti
16:20
is the most important fact about the physical world.
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je najvažnija činjenica
o fizičkom svijetu.
16:25
It's a fact that is itself unseen,
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Činjenica je da je i ona, sama po sebi, neviđena,
16:28
yet impossible to vary.
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a ipak, nemoguće ju je mijenjati. Hvala vam.
16:31
Thank you.
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16:32
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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