David Deutsch: A new way to explain explanation

209,537 views ・ 2009-10-26

TED


Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove ispod za reprodukciju videozapisa.

Prevoditelj: Zvonimir Mimica Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:18
I'm sure that,
0
18917
1543
Siguran sam da, kroz sto tisuća neobičnih godina
00:20
throughout the 100,000-odd years of our species' existence
1
20484
5352
postojanja naše vrste,
00:26
and even before,
2
26789
2421
a čak i prije toga,
00:29
our ancestors looked up at the night sky and wondered what stars are --
3
29234
4705
naši preci su gledali prema noćnom nebu
i pitali se što su to zvijezde.
00:34
wondering, therefore,
4
34471
1782
Pitali su se, stoga,
kako objasniti ono što su vidjeli
00:37
how to explain what they saw
5
37253
3664
00:40
in terms of things unseen.
6
40941
3441
koristeći pojmove neviđenoga.
Naravno, većina ljudi
00:47
OK, so, most people only wondered that occasionally, like today,
7
47184
5246
se samo pitala o tome povremeno, kao i danas,
00:52
in breaks from whatever normally preoccupied them.
8
52454
4476
u stankama između onoga
što ih je uobičajeno zaokupljalo.
00:56
But what normally preoccupied them also involved yearning to know.
9
56954
6862
Ali, ono što ih je obično zaokupljalo
također je uključivalo i žudnju za znanjem.
01:03
They wished they knew
10
63840
2140
Oni su željeli znati
01:06
how to prevent their food supply from sometimes failing,
11
66004
4669
kako spriječiti da im opskrba hrane
povremeno zakaže,
01:10
and how they could rest when they were tired
12
70697
2820
kako bi se mogli odmarati kad su bili umorni,
01:13
without risking starvation,
13
73541
2394
bez preuzimanja rizika gladovanja,
01:17
be warmer, cooler, safer,
14
77330
4193
kako biti toplijim, hladnijim, sigurnijim,
01:21
in less pain.
15
81547
1656
s manje bola.
01:23
I bet those prehistoric cave artists would have loved to know
16
83227
5255
Kladim se da su oni prapovijesni špiljski umjetnici
željeli zbilja znati
01:28
how to draw better.
17
88506
1435
kako bolje crtati.
U svakom aspektu njihovih života,
01:31
(Laughter)
18
91015
1256
01:32
In every aspect of their lives,
19
92295
2080
01:35
they wished for progress, just as we do.
20
95486
4959
željeli su napredovati, kao što i mi želimo.
01:40
But they failed, almost completely, to make any.
21
100469
5708
Međutim, nisu uspjeli, gotovo u potpunosti, ostvariti bilo kakav napredak.
01:46
They didn't know how to.
22
106812
2675
Nisu znali kako.
01:49
Discoveries like fire happened so rarely
23
109511
5755
Otkrića, kao što je vatra,
su se događala tako rijetko, da s gledišta pojedinca,
01:55
that, from an individual's point of view,
24
115290
2342
01:57
the world never improved.
25
117656
2815
svijet nije nikako napredovao.
02:00
Nothing new was learned.
26
120495
2742
Ništa novo nije naučeno.
02:04
The first clue to the origin of starlight
27
124259
3678
Prva indicija o porijeklu zvjezdanog svjetla
02:07
happened as recently as 1899:
28
127961
4454
dogodila se 1899., zapravo nedavno: radioaktivnost.
02:12
radioactivity.
29
132439
1249
02:14
And within 40 years,
30
134426
2064
Unutar 40 godina,
02:16
physicists discovered the whole explanation,
31
136514
3792
fizičari su otkrili cjelovito objašnjenje,
02:20
expressed, as usual, in elegant symbols.
32
140330
4025
prikazano, kao i obično, u obliku elegantnih simbola.
02:25
But never mind the symbols.
33
145212
2433
Ali, ostavimo po strani simbole.
02:27
Think how many discoveries they represent.
34
147669
5337
Razmislite, koliko mnogo otkrića
oni predstavljaju.
02:33
Nuclei and nuclear reactions, of course.
35
153030
3311
Jezgru i nuklearne reakcije, naravno.
02:36
But isotopes,
36
156365
1982
Ali i izotope, čestice elektriciteta,
02:39
particles of electricity,
37
159330
2073
02:43
antimatter,
38
163554
1542
antimateriju,
02:47
neutrinos,
39
167250
1821
neutrine,
02:49
the conversion of mass to energy -- that's E=mc2 --
40
169095
4395
pretvaranje mase u energiju -- odnosno E=mc^2 --
02:53
gamma rays,
41
173514
1236
gama zrake,
02:55
transmutation.
42
175980
1692
transmutaciju.
02:59
That ancient dream that had always eluded the alchemists
43
179330
4976
Taj drevni san, koji je oduvijek izluđivao alkemičare,
03:04
was achieved through these same theories
44
184330
2254
postignut je posredstvom istih ovih teorija
03:06
that explained starlight and other ancient mysteries
45
186608
4698
koje su objasnile i zvjezdani sjaj,
kao i druge drevne misterije,
03:11
and new, unexpected phenomena.
46
191330
3348
a i nove, neočekivane fenomene.
03:14
That all that, discovered in 40 years,
47
194702
3973
Sve to, otkriveno u 40 godina,
03:18
had not been in the previous hundred thousand
48
198699
3208
nije bilo [otkriveno] u prethodnih sto tisuća godina,
03:21
was not for lack of thinking
49
201931
3307
ne zbog izostanka razmišljanja
03:25
about stars and all those other urgent problems they had.
50
205262
4117
o zvijezdama i svim onim drugim gorućim problemima koje su imali.
Čak su i došli do odgovora,
03:30
They even arrived at answers, such as myths,
51
210093
4294
poput mitova,
03:34
that dominated their lives,
52
214411
2152
koji su dominirali njihovim životima,
03:36
yet bore almost no resemblance to the truth.
53
216587
4776
mada, bez skoro ikakve sličnosti
s istinom.
03:42
The tragedy of that protracted stagnation
54
222514
3815
Tragedija toga, produžila je stagnaciju,
03:47
isn't sufficiently recognized, I think.
55
227330
2465
a čini mi se da to nije dovoljno prepoznato.
03:49
These were people with brains of essentially the same design
56
229819
4237
To su bili ljudi s mozgovima,
suštinski iste strukture,
03:54
that eventually did discover all those things.
57
234080
4226
koji su u konačnici i otkrili sve one stvari.
03:59
But that ability to make progress
58
239100
3977
Ali sposobnost postizanja napretka
04:03
remained almost unused,
59
243101
3205
ostala je skoro neiskorištena,
04:06
until the event that revolutionized the human condition
60
246330
5723
sve do događaja koji je
preinačio ljudske potencijale
i promijenio svijet.
04:12
and changed the universe.
61
252077
1626
04:13
Or so we should hope,
62
253727
1333
Ili se barem nadamo da jest.
04:15
because that event was the scientific revolution,
63
255084
4222
A taj događaj bila je
znanstvena revolucija,
04:19
ever since which our knowledge of the physical world
64
259330
3865
sve od kada je naše poznavanje
fizičkog svijeta
04:23
and of how to adapt it to our wishes
65
263219
3855
i načina kako ga prilagoditi našim željama
04:27
has been growing relentlessly.
66
267098
1976
neumorno raslo.
04:29
Now, what had changed?
67
269584
2600
I sad, što se promijenilo?
04:32
What were people now doing for the first time
68
272208
2265
Što su tada ljudi po prvi put radili,
04:34
that made that difference between stagnation
69
274497
4010
što je napravilo tu razliku
između stagnacije
04:38
and rapid, open-ended discovery?
70
278531
3005
i brzog, neograničenog otkrivanja?
04:42
How to make that difference
71
282639
2009
Kako napraviti tu razliku
04:44
is surely the most important universal truth
72
284672
3457
je zasigurno najvažnija univerzalna istina
04:48
that it's possible to know.
73
288153
1644
koju se može spoznati.
04:50
And worryingly, there's no consensus about what it is.
74
290781
4392
Zabrinjavajuće je da nema konsenzusa o tome koja je to istina.
04:55
So, I'll tell you.
75
295562
1443
Pa, reći ću vam.
04:57
(Laughter)
76
297029
1031
Ali, morat ću se vratiti malo unatrag.
04:58
But I'll have to backtrack a little first.
77
298084
2491
05:01
Before the scientific revolution,
78
301376
2023
Prije znanstvene revolucije,
05:04
they believed that everything important, knowable,
79
304447
3012
vjerovali su da je sve važno, spoznatljivo,
05:07
was already known,
80
307483
1494
već poznato,
05:09
enshrined in ancient writings, institutions
81
309001
3683
sadržano u drevnim napisima, institucijama,
05:12
and in some genuinely useful rules of thumb --
82
312708
3036
kao i u nekim istinski korisnim pravilima --
05:15
which were, however, entrenched as dogmas,
83
315768
3242
koja su bila, ipak, ukorijenjena kao dogme,
05:19
along with many falsehoods.
84
319034
2887
zajedno s mnogim neistinama.
05:21
So, they believed that knowledge came from authorities
85
321945
3728
Tako su vjerovali da je znanje dolazilo od autoriteta,
05:25
that actually knew very little.
86
325697
2457
koji su u biti vrlo malo znali.
05:28
And therefore,
87
328178
1948
I stoga je napredak
05:30
progress depended on learning how to reject
88
330150
4634
ovisio o učenju kako odbaciti
05:34
the authority of learned men, the priests, traditions and rulers,
89
334808
6760
autoritet učenih ljudi,
svećenika, tradicija i vladara.
05:41
which is why the scientific revolution had to have a wider context:
90
341592
4714
To je razlog zbog kojeg je znanstvena revolucija
morala imati širi kontekts:
05:46
the Enlightenment, a revolution in how people sought knowledge,
91
346330
6976
prosvjetiteljstvo, revolucija u okviru koje su
ljudi tražili znanje,
05:53
trying not to rely on authority.
92
353330
3528
pokušavajući se ne oslanjati na autoritet.
05:56
"Take no one's word for it."
93
356882
1715
"Nikome nemojte vjerovati na riječ."
05:58
But that can't be what made the difference.
94
358621
3363
Ali to ne može biti ono što je napravilo razliku.
06:02
Authorities had been rejected before, many times.
95
362008
2953
Autoriteti su bili odbacivani i prije, mnogo puta.
06:04
And that rarely, if ever,
96
364985
2024
I to je rijetko, ako i ikad,
prouzročilo nešto poput znanstvene revolucije.
06:07
caused anything like the scientific revolution.
97
367033
3273
06:10
At the time, what they thought distinguished science
98
370330
4010
U to vrijeme, ono što su mislili
da razlikuje znanost
06:14
was a radical idea about things unseen,
99
374364
4432
bila je radikalna ideja o neviđenim stvarima,
06:18
known as empiricism --
100
378820
2613
poznata kao empirizam.
06:21
all knowledge derives from the senses.
101
381457
3337
Svo znanje prozlazi iz osjetila.
06:26
Well, we've seen that that can't be true.
102
386484
3207
Pa, vidjeli smo da to ne može biti istina.
06:29
It did help by promoting observation and experiment.
103
389715
5700
Pomoglo je u promicanju
opažanja i eksperimenta.
06:35
But, from the outset,
104
395439
1259
Ali, od početka je bilo očigledno
06:36
it was obvious that there was something horribly wrong with it.
105
396722
3699
da je bilo nešto užasno pogrešno u tome.
06:40
Knowledge comes from the senses?
106
400445
1955
Znanje dolazi od osjetila.
06:42
In what language?
107
402424
1158
U kojem jeziku? Zasigurno ne u jeziku matematike,
06:43
Certainly not the language of mathematics, in which, Galileo rightly said,
108
403606
4546
u kojem je, kako je Galileo ispravno rekao,
06:48
the book of nature is written.
109
408176
1968
napisana knjiga prirode.
06:51
Look at the world.
110
411553
1157
Pogledajte svijet. Ne vidite jednadžbe
06:52
You don't see equations carved on the mountainsides.
111
412734
3793
isklesane na obroncima planina.
06:57
If you did, it would be because people had carved them.
112
417330
2720
Kad biste ih vidjeli, to bi bilo stoga jer su ih ljudi
isklesali.
07:00
By the way, why don't we do that?
113
420980
2082
Usput rečeno, zašto to ne radimo?
07:03
(Laughter)
114
423086
1076
07:04
What's wrong with us?
115
424186
1509
Što nije u redu s nama?
07:05
(Laughter)
116
425719
1444
(Smijeh)
07:07
Empiricism is inadequate
117
427187
2639
Empirizam je nedovoljan,
07:09
because, well, scientific theories explain the seen in terms of the unseen.
118
429850
6263
jer, pa,
znanstvene teorije objašnjavaju viđeno u terminima neviđenoga.
07:16
And the unseen, you have to admit,
119
436137
2585
A neviđeno, morate priznati,
07:18
doesn't come to us through the senses.
120
438746
1922
ne dolazi do nas putem osjetila.
07:20
We don't see those nuclear reactions in stars.
121
440692
3743
Mi ne vidimo one nuklearne reakcije u zvijezdama.
07:24
We don't see the origin of species.
122
444459
3442
Ne vidimo porijeklo vrsta.
07:27
We don't see the curvature of space-time,
123
447925
3381
Ne vidimo zakrivljenost prostor-vremena,
07:31
and other universes.
124
451330
1919
niti druge svemire.
07:33
But we know about those things.
125
453273
2168
Ali znamo o tim stvarima.
07:36
How?
126
456020
1188
Kako?
07:38
Well, the classic empiricist answer is induction --
127
458131
5816
Pa, klasični odgovor empirista je indukcija.
07:43
the unseen resembles the seen.
128
463971
3335
Neviđeno je slično viđenom.
07:47
But it doesn't.
129
467763
1627
Ali, zapravo, nije.
07:49
You know what the clinching evidence was that space-time is curved?
130
469414
4988
Znate što je bio ključni dokaz
da je prostor-vrijeme zakrivljeno.
07:54
It was a photograph -- not of space-time,
131
474426
3156
To je bila fotografija, ne prostor-vremena,
07:57
but of an eclipse, with a dot there rather than there.
132
477606
4137
već pomrčina, s točkom tamo, umjesto onamo.
08:01
And the evidence for evolution?
133
481767
1831
A dokaz evolucije?
08:03
Some rocks and some finches.
134
483622
2417
Nekoliko stijena i nekoliko zeba.
08:06
And parallel universes?
135
486912
1178
A paralelni svemiri? Ponovo: točke tamo,
08:08
Again: dots there rather than there, on a screen.
136
488114
3656
umjesto onamo, na ekranu.
08:11
What we see in all these cases
137
491794
2610
Ono što vidimo, u svim ovim slučajevima,
08:14
bears no resemblance to the reality that we conclude is responsible --
138
494428
6574
nema nikakve sličnosti s realnošću
za koju zaključujemo da je odgovorna --
samo dugi niz teoretskog rezoniranja
08:21
only a long chain of theoretical reasoning and interpretation connects them.
139
501026
6004
i interpretiranja, ono je što ih spaja.
"Ah", kažu kreacionisti,
08:27
"Ah!" say creationists.
140
507054
2309
08:29
"So you admit it's all interpretation.
141
509387
2400
"Dakle, priznajete da je sve interpretacija.
08:31
No one's ever seen evolution.
142
511811
2459
Nitko nikada nije vidio evoluciju.
08:34
We see rocks.
143
514294
2506
Vidimo stijene.
08:36
You have your interpretation. We have ours.
144
516824
2429
Vi imate svoje interpretacije. Mi imamo svoje.
08:39
Yours comes from guesswork; ours, from the Bible."
145
519277
3647
Vaše proizlaze iz nagađanja;
naše, iz Biblije."
08:43
But what creationist and empiricists both ignore
146
523432
6211
Ali, ono što i kreacionisti i empiristi ignoriraju
08:49
is that, in that sense,
147
529667
1438
jest da, u tom smislu,
08:51
no one's ever seen a Bible either,
148
531129
2724
nitko, također, ni Bibliju nije vidio,
08:54
that the eye only detects light, which we don't perceive.
149
534964
3585
da oko samo detektira svjetlo, kojeg ne shvaćamo.
08:58
Brains only detect nerve impulses.
150
538573
2657
Mozgovi samo detektiraju impulse živaca.
09:01
And they don't perceive even those as what they really are,
151
541780
3091
I ne shvaćaju čak ni one kakvi u biti jesu,
09:04
namely electrical crackles.
152
544895
2200
odnosno električne praskove.
Dakle, ništa ne shvaćamo onako kakvo u stvarnosti jest.
09:07
So we perceive nothing as what it really is.
153
547119
4743
09:11
Our connection to reality is never just perception.
154
551886
4532
Naša veza s realnošću
nikada nije samo percepcija.
09:16
It's always, as Karl Popper put it,
155
556823
3650
Uvijek je, kako kaže Karl Popper,
09:20
theory-laden.
156
560497
1476
natovarena teorijom.
09:23
Scientific knowledge isn't derived from anything.
157
563076
2892
Znanstveno znanje ne proizlazi iz bilo čega.
09:25
Like all knowledge, it's conjectural, guesswork,
158
565992
4089
Kao i svo znanje. Ono je pretpostavljeno, nagađajuće,
09:31
tested by observation,
159
571330
2240
provjeravano opažanjem,
09:33
not derived from it.
160
573594
2071
a ne izvedeno iz njega.
09:37
So, were testable conjectures the great innovation
161
577423
3026
Dakle, jesu li provjerljive pretpostavke bile
09:40
that opened the intellectual prison gates?
162
580473
3833
velika inovacija koja je otvorila vrata intelektualnog zatvora?
09:44
No, contrary to what's usually said, testability is common
163
584330
5086
Ne. Suprotno od onoga što se obično govori,
provjerljivost je uobičajena
09:49
in myths and all sorts of other irrational modes of thinking.
164
589440
4343
u mitovima i svim vrstama drugih iracionalnih načina razmišljanja.
09:53
Any crank claiming the sun will go out next Tuesday
165
593807
3644
Svaki osobenjak koji tvrdi da će se sunce ugasiti slijedećeg utorka
09:57
has got a testable prediction.
166
597475
2547
ima provjerljivo predviđanje.
10:00
Consider the ancient Greek myth explaining seasons.
167
600784
4592
Uzmite u obzir drevni grčki mit
koji objašnjava godišnja doba.
10:06
Hades, god of the underworld,
168
606685
2306
Had, Bog podzemlja,
oteo je Perseponu, Boginju proljeća,
10:09
kidnaps Persephone, the goddess of spring,
169
609015
2364
10:11
and negotiates a forced marriage contract, requiring her to return regularly,
170
611403
5859
i pregovara o ugovoranju prisilnog braka,
tražeći od nje da se redovito vraća, a zatim je pušta.
10:17
and lets her go.
171
617286
1371
10:18
And each year,
172
618681
1625
I svake godine,
10:20
she is magically compelled to return.
173
620330
2929
ona je magično primorana vraćati se.
10:23
And her mother, Demeter,
174
623283
2023
A njena majka, Demetra,
10:25
goddess of the earth,
175
625330
1976
Boginja Zemlje,
10:27
is sad, and makes it cold and barren.
176
627330
3786
je tužna, te stvara hladnoću i pustoš.
10:32
That myth is testable.
177
632330
2925
Taj mit je provjerljiv.
10:35
If winter is caused by Demeter's sadness,
178
635279
3991
Ukoliko je zima prouzročena Demetrinom tugom,
10:39
then it must happen everywhere on earth simultaneously.
179
639294
4012
onda se to mora događati svugdje na Zemlji, u isto vrijeme.
10:43
So if the ancient Greeks had only known
180
643330
2077
Tako, da su drevni Grci samo znali da je Australija
10:45
that Australia is at its warmest when Demeter is at her saddest ...
181
645431
4380
najtoplija kad je Demetra najtužnija,
10:49
(Laughter)
182
649835
1015
10:50
they'd have known that their theory is false.
183
650874
2177
tada bi znali da je njihova teorija pogrešna.
10:53
(Laughter)
184
653075
1032
Dakle, što je bilo pogrešno s tim mitom,
10:54
So, what was wrong with that myth
185
654131
2620
10:56
and with all prescientific thinking?
186
656775
2725
kao i sa svim predznanstvenim razmišljanjem,
10:59
And what, then, made that momentous difference?
187
659524
4056
i što je, onda, napravilo trenutnu razliku?
11:04
I think there's one thing you have to care about
188
664330
4688
Mislim da ima jedna stvar do koje bi vam trebalo biti stalo.
A iz nje proizlazi
11:09
and that implies testability, the scientific method,
189
669042
4063
provjerljivost, znanstvena metoda,
11:13
the Enlightenment and everything.
190
673129
1887
prosvjetiteljstvo i sve ostalo.
11:15
And here's the crucial thing:
191
675040
2143
I sad dolazimo do ključne stvari.
11:17
there is such a thing as a defect in a story.
192
677207
2913
Postoji nešto kao manjkavost priče.
11:20
I don't just mean a logical defect.
193
680144
1784
Ne mislim samo na logičku manjkavost. Mislim na loše objašnjenje.
11:21
I mean a bad explanation.
194
681952
3231
11:25
What does that mean?
195
685207
1402
Što to znači? Pa, objašnjenje
11:26
Well, an explanation is an assertion about what's there, unseen,
196
686633
4874
je tvrdnja o onome što je tamo, o neviđenom,
11:31
that accounts for what's seen;
197
691531
2775
koja uzima u obzir ono što je viđeno.
11:34
because the explanatory role of Persephone's marriage contract
198
694330
5470
Jer, uloga objašnjavanja
bračnog ugovora Persepone
11:39
could be played equally well
199
699824
1379
mogla bi se odigravati podjednako dobro
11:41
by infinitely many other ad hoc entities.
200
701227
4053
putem beskonačno mnogo drugih
ad hoc cjelina.
11:45
Why a marriage contract and not any other reason
201
705304
3571
Zašto bračni ugovor, a ne neki drugi razlog
11:48
for regular annual action?
202
708899
3191
za redovito godišnje djelovanje?
11:52
Here's one: Persephone wasn't released.
203
712114
3192
Evo jednog. Persepona nije otpuštena.
11:55
She escaped, and returns every spring to take revenge on Hades,
204
715330
6301
Pobjegla je i vraća se svakog proljeća
kako bi se osvetila Hadu,
12:01
with her spring powers.
205
721655
1651
sa svojim proljetnim moćima.
12:03
She cools his domain with spring air,
206
723799
4358
Ona hladi njegov utjecaj proljetnim zrakom,
12:08
venting heat up to the surface, creating summer.
207
728181
4125
propuhivajući toplinu gore do površine, stvarajući ljeto.
12:12
That accounts for the same phenomena as the original myth.
208
732718
4085
To će dovesti do istog fenomena kao i izvorni mit.
12:16
It's equally testable.
209
736827
1757
I jednako je provjerljivo.
12:19
Yet what it asserts about reality is, in many ways, the opposite.
210
739282
5454
Ipak, ono što tvrdi o realnosti
jest, na mnoge načine, suprotno.
12:24
And that's possible
211
744760
1463
A to je moguće zbog toga što
12:26
because the details of the original myth are unrelated to seasons,
212
746247
4996
detalji izvornog mita
nisu u svezi s godišnjim dobima,
12:31
except via the myth itself.
213
751267
2739
osim posredstvom samog mita.
12:35
This easy variability
214
755083
3119
Ova laka varijabilnost
12:38
is the sign of a bad explanation,
215
758226
3317
je znak lošeg objašnjenja.
12:42
because, without a functional reason
216
762194
3675
Jer, bez funkcionalnog razloga za preferenciju
12:45
to prefer one of countless variants,
217
765893
4421
jedne od bezbrojnih varijanti,
12:51
advocating one of them in preference to the others
218
771372
2435
braniti jednu od njih, pretpostavljati je drugima,
12:53
is irrational.
219
773831
1574
je iracionalno.
12:55
So, for the essence of what makes the difference to enable progress,
220
775429
5141
Tako, radi biti onoga
što čini razliku koja omogućuje napredak,
13:00
seek good explanations,
221
780594
2335
tražite dobra objašnjenja,
13:02
the ones that can't be easily varied,
222
782953
2449
ona koja nije jednostavno mijenjati,
13:05
while still explaining the phenomena.
223
785426
3079
dok u isto vrijeme objašnjavaju fenomen.
13:10
Now our current explanation of seasons
224
790076
2506
I sad, naše trenutno objašnjenje godišnjih doba
13:13
is that the Earth's axis is tilted like that,
225
793693
3340
jest da se Zemljine osi naginju tako
13:17
so each hemisphere tilts towards the sun for half the year,
226
797057
3634
da se svaka hemisfera naginje prema suncu polovicu godine,
13:20
and away for the other half.
227
800715
1924
a od sunca drugu polovicu.
13:23
[Not to scale!]
228
803060
1154
Najbolje da to razglasite.
13:24
Better put that up.
229
804238
1166
13:25
(Laughter)
230
805428
1286
(Smijeh)
13:26
That's a good explanation:
231
806738
3240
To je dobro objašnjenje: teško ga je mijenjati,
13:30
hard to vary,
232
810002
1422
13:31
because every detail plays a functional role.
233
811448
3090
jer svaki detalj igra funkcionalnu ulogu.
13:34
For instance, we know, independently of seasons,
234
814562
2852
Primjerice, znamo, neovisno o godišnjim dobima,
13:37
that surfaces tilted away from radiant heat are heated less,
235
817438
5052
da se površine koje su udaljeno nagnute
od toplinskog zračenja manje zagrijavaju,
13:42
and that a spinning sphere, in space,
236
822514
2966
a da okrećuća kugla, u prostoru,
13:45
points in a constant direction.
237
825504
2295
pokazuje stalno u istom pravcu.
13:48
And the tilt also explains
238
828250
3382
A naginjanje također objašnjava
13:51
the sun's angle of elevation at different times of year,
239
831656
3429
kut nagiba sunca u različitim djelovima godine,
13:55
and predicts that the seasons will be out of phase in the two hemispheres.
240
835109
5016
te predviđa da će godišnja doba
biti izvan faze u dvjema hemisferama.
14:00
If they'd been observed in phase,
241
840149
2316
Da su bile opažene u fazi,
14:02
the theory would have been refuted.
242
842489
1986
teorija bi bila odbačena.
14:04
But now, the fact that it's also a good explanation, hard to vary,
243
844499
6229
Ali ovako, činjenica da je to također dobro objašnjenje,
teško promjenjivo, čini ključnu razliku.
14:10
makes the crucial difference.
244
850752
2210
14:14
If the ancient Greeks had found out about seasons in Australia,
245
854067
5396
Da su drevni Grci otkrili podatak
o godišnjim dobima u Australiji,
14:19
they could have easily varied their myth to predict that.
246
859487
3900
mogli su lako promijeniti svoj mit
kako bi to predvidjeli.
14:23
For instance, when Demeter's upset,
247
863411
2161
Primjerice, kad je Demetra uznemirena,
14:25
she banishes heat from her vicinity into the other hemisphere,
248
865596
4444
ona protjera vrućinu iz svoje blizine
u drugu hemisferu, gdje to stvara ljeto.
14:30
where it makes summer.
249
870064
1383
14:31
So, being proved wrong by observation
250
871471
2835
I tako, kad bi im se opažanjem dokazalo da su u krivu,
14:34
and changing their theory accordingly
251
874330
2543
te kada bi sukladno tome promijenili teoriju,
14:36
still wouldn't have got the ancient Greeks one jot closer to understanding seasons,
252
876897
5194
to drevne Grge još uvijek ne bi
ni milimetar približilo razumijevanju godišnjih doba,
14:42
because their explanation was bad -- easy to vary.
253
882115
3766
jer je njihovo objašnjenje bilo loše: jednostavno za mijenjanje.
14:45
And it's only when an explanation is good
254
885905
2814
I samo je onda kad je objašnjenje dobro
14:48
that it even matters whether it's testable.
255
888743
2493
uopće i bitno što je provjerljivo.
Da je teorija o naginjanju osi odbačena,
14:51
If the axis-tilt theory had been refuted,
256
891260
2231
14:53
its defenders would have had nowhere to go.
257
893515
2356
njeni branitelji ne bi znali kamo dalje krenuti.
14:55
No easily implemented change
258
895895
2726
Nijedna jednostavno primijenjena promjena
14:58
could make that tilt cause the same seasons in both hemispheres.
259
898645
5108
ne bi mogla učiniti da naginjanje
prouzroči ista godišnja doba u obje hemisfere.
15:05
The search for hard-to-vary explanations is the origin of all progress.
260
905210
6281
Potraga za teško promjenjivim objašnjenjima
je ishodište svekolikog napretka.
15:11
It's the basic regulating principle of the Enlightenment.
261
911515
4513
To je osnovni regulatorni princip
prosvjetiteljstva.
15:16
So, in science, two false approaches blight progress.
262
916052
4366
I tako, u znanosti, dva pogrešna pristupa štete napretku.
15:20
One's well-known: untestable theories.
263
920442
2864
Jedan je dobro poznat: neprovjerljive teorije.
15:23
But the more important one is explanationless theories.
264
923330
3902
Ali još važniji pristup su neobjašnjive teorije.
15:27
Whenever you're told that some existing statistical trend will continue
265
927256
4556
Kad god vam kažu da će se neki postojeći statistički trend nastaviti,
15:31
but you aren't given a hard-to-vary account of what causes that trend,
266
931836
5240
ali vam nije dat i teško promjenjiv razlog
promjene toga trenda,
15:37
you're being told a wizard did it.
267
937100
2117
govori vam se, zapravo, da je to djelo čarobnjaka.
15:39
When you are told that carrots have human rights
268
939241
2820
Kad vam kažu da mrkve imaju ljudska prava,
15:42
because they share half our genes,
269
942085
2098
jer dijele polovicu naših gena --
15:44
but not how gene percentages confer rights -- wizard.
270
944207
5317
ali sada, kako postoci gena daju prava -- čarobnjak.
15:50
When someone announces that the nature-nurture debate
271
950023
4335
Kad netko objavi da je rasprava "priroda-odgoj"
15:54
has been settled
272
954382
1213
riješena, jer postoje dokazi
15:55
because there's evidence that a given percentage of our political opinions
273
955619
4485
da je određeni postotak naših
političkih mišljenja genetski naslijeđen,
16:00
are genetically inherited,
274
960128
2178
16:02
but they don't explain how genes cause opinions,
275
962330
3976
ali ne objašnjavaju kako geni prouzrokuju mišljenja,
16:06
they've settled nothing.
276
966330
1170
zapravo nisu riješili ništa. Oni govore da su naša
16:07
They're saying that our opinions are caused by wizards,
277
967524
3491
mišljenja prouzrokovana čarobnjacima,
a pretpostavljeno i njihova vlastita.
16:11
and presumably, so are their own.
278
971039
1724
16:12
(Laughter)
279
972787
1150
16:13
That the truth consists of hard-to-vary assertions about reality
280
973961
6901
Da se istina sastoji od
teško promjenjivih tvrdnji o realnosti
16:20
is the most important fact about the physical world.
281
980886
3840
je najvažnija činjenica
o fizičkom svijetu.
16:25
It's a fact that is itself unseen,
282
985330
3640
Činjenica je da je i ona, sama po sebi, neviđena,
16:28
yet impossible to vary.
283
988994
2694
a ipak, nemoguće ju je mijenjati. Hvala vam.
16:31
Thank you.
284
991712
1189
16:32
(Applause)
285
992925
3405
(Pljesak)
O ovoj web stranici

Ova stranica će vas upoznati s YouTube videozapisima koji su korisni za učenje engleskog jezika. Vidjet ćete lekcije engleskog koje vode vrhunski profesori iz cijelog svijeta. Dvaput kliknite na engleske titlove prikazane na svakoj video stranici da biste reproducirali video s tog mjesta. Titlovi se pomiču sinkronizirano s reprodukcijom videozapisa. Ako imate bilo kakvih komentara ili zahtjeva, obratite nam se putem ovog obrasca za kontakt.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7