David Deutsch: A new way to explain explanation

209,537 views ・ 2009-10-26

TED


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00:18
I'm sure that,
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throughout the 100,000-odd years of our species' existence
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and even before,
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our ancestors looked up at the night sky and wondered what stars are --
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wondering, therefore,
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how to explain what they saw
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in terms of things unseen.
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OK, so, most people only wondered that occasionally, like today,
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in breaks from whatever normally preoccupied them.
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But what normally preoccupied them also involved yearning to know.
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They wished they knew
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how to prevent their food supply from sometimes failing,
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and how they could rest when they were tired
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without risking starvation,
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be warmer, cooler, safer,
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in less pain.
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I bet those prehistoric cave artists would have loved to know
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how to draw better.
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(Laughter)
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In every aspect of their lives,
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they wished for progress, just as we do.
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But they failed, almost completely, to make any.
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They didn't know how to.
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Discoveries like fire happened so rarely
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that, from an individual's point of view,
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the world never improved.
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Nothing new was learned.
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The first clue to the origin of starlight
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happened as recently as 1899:
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radioactivity.
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And within 40 years,
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physicists discovered the whole explanation,
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expressed, as usual, in elegant symbols.
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But never mind the symbols.
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Think how many discoveries they represent.
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Nuclei and nuclear reactions, of course.
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But isotopes,
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particles of electricity,
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antimatter,
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neutrinos,
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the conversion of mass to energy -- that's E=mc2 --
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gamma rays,
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transmutation.
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That ancient dream that had always eluded the alchemists
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was achieved through these same theories
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that explained starlight and other ancient mysteries
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and new, unexpected phenomena.
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That all that, discovered in 40 years,
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had not been in the previous hundred thousand
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was not for lack of thinking
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about stars and all those other urgent problems they had.
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They even arrived at answers, such as myths,
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that dominated their lives,
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yet bore almost no resemblance to the truth.
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The tragedy of that protracted stagnation
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isn't sufficiently recognized, I think.
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These were people with brains of essentially the same design
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that eventually did discover all those things.
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But that ability to make progress
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remained almost unused,
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until the event that revolutionized the human condition
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and changed the universe.
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Or so we should hope,
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because that event was the scientific revolution,
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ever since which our knowledge of the physical world
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and of how to adapt it to our wishes
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has been growing relentlessly.
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Now, what had changed?
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What were people now doing for the first time
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that made that difference between stagnation
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and rapid, open-ended discovery?
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How to make that difference
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is surely the most important universal truth
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that it's possible to know.
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And worryingly, there's no consensus about what it is.
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So, I'll tell you.
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(Laughter)
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But I'll have to backtrack a little first.
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Before the scientific revolution,
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they believed that everything important, knowable,
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was already known,
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enshrined in ancient writings, institutions
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and in some genuinely useful rules of thumb --
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which were, however, entrenched as dogmas,
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along with many falsehoods.
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So, they believed that knowledge came from authorities
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that actually knew very little.
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And therefore,
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progress depended on learning how to reject
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the authority of learned men, the priests, traditions and rulers,
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which is why the scientific revolution had to have a wider context:
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the Enlightenment, a revolution in how people sought knowledge,
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trying not to rely on authority.
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"Take no one's word for it."
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But that can't be what made the difference.
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Authorities had been rejected before, many times.
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And that rarely, if ever,
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caused anything like the scientific revolution.
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At the time, what they thought distinguished science
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was a radical idea about things unseen,
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known as empiricism --
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all knowledge derives from the senses.
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Well, we've seen that that can't be true.
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It did help by promoting observation and experiment.
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But, from the outset,
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it was obvious that there was something horribly wrong with it.
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Knowledge comes from the senses?
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In what language?
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Certainly not the language of mathematics, in which, Galileo rightly said,
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the book of nature is written.
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Look at the world.
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You don't see equations carved on the mountainsides.
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If you did, it would be because people had carved them.
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By the way, why don't we do that?
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(Laughter)
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What's wrong with us?
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(Laughter)
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Empiricism is inadequate
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because, well, scientific theories explain the seen in terms of the unseen.
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And the unseen, you have to admit,
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doesn't come to us through the senses.
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We don't see those nuclear reactions in stars.
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We don't see the origin of species.
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We don't see the curvature of space-time,
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and other universes.
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But we know about those things.
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How?
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Well, the classic empiricist answer is induction --
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the unseen resembles the seen.
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But it doesn't.
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You know what the clinching evidence was that space-time is curved?
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It was a photograph -- not of space-time,
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but of an eclipse, with a dot there rather than there.
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And the evidence for evolution?
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Some rocks and some finches.
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And parallel universes?
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Again: dots there rather than there, on a screen.
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What we see in all these cases
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bears no resemblance to the reality that we conclude is responsible --
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only a long chain of theoretical reasoning and interpretation connects them.
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"Ah!" say creationists.
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"So you admit it's all interpretation.
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No one's ever seen evolution.
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We see rocks.
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You have your interpretation. We have ours.
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Yours comes from guesswork; ours, from the Bible."
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But what creationist and empiricists both ignore
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is that, in that sense,
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no one's ever seen a Bible either,
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that the eye only detects light, which we don't perceive.
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Brains only detect nerve impulses.
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And they don't perceive even those as what they really are,
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namely electrical crackles.
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So we perceive nothing as what it really is.
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Our connection to reality is never just perception.
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It's always, as Karl Popper put it,
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theory-laden.
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Scientific knowledge isn't derived from anything.
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Like all knowledge, it's conjectural, guesswork,
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tested by observation,
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not derived from it.
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So, were testable conjectures the great innovation
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that opened the intellectual prison gates?
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No, contrary to what's usually said, testability is common
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in myths and all sorts of other irrational modes of thinking.
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Any crank claiming the sun will go out next Tuesday
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has got a testable prediction.
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Consider the ancient Greek myth explaining seasons.
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Hades, god of the underworld,
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kidnaps Persephone, the goddess of spring,
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and negotiates a forced marriage contract, requiring her to return regularly,
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and lets her go.
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And each year,
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she is magically compelled to return.
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And her mother, Demeter,
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goddess of the earth,
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is sad, and makes it cold and barren.
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That myth is testable.
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If winter is caused by Demeter's sadness,
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then it must happen everywhere on earth simultaneously.
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So if the ancient Greeks had only known
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that Australia is at its warmest when Demeter is at her saddest ...
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(Laughter)
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they'd have known that their theory is false.
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(Laughter)
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So, what was wrong with that myth
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and with all prescientific thinking?
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And what, then, made that momentous difference?
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I think there's one thing you have to care about
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and that implies testability, the scientific method,
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the Enlightenment and everything.
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And here's the crucial thing:
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there is such a thing as a defect in a story.
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I don't just mean a logical defect.
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I mean a bad explanation.
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What does that mean?
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Well, an explanation is an assertion about what's there, unseen,
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that accounts for what's seen;
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because the explanatory role of Persephone's marriage contract
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could be played equally well
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by infinitely many other ad hoc entities.
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Why a marriage contract and not any other reason
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for regular annual action?
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Here's one: Persephone wasn't released.
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She escaped, and returns every spring to take revenge on Hades,
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with her spring powers.
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She cools his domain with spring air,
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venting heat up to the surface, creating summer.
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That accounts for the same phenomena as the original myth.
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It's equally testable.
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Yet what it asserts about reality is, in many ways, the opposite.
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And that's possible
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because the details of the original myth are unrelated to seasons,
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except via the myth itself.
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This easy variability
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is the sign of a bad explanation,
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because, without a functional reason
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to prefer one of countless variants,
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advocating one of them in preference to the others
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is irrational.
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So, for the essence of what makes the difference to enable progress,
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seek good explanations,
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the ones that can't be easily varied,
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while still explaining the phenomena.
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Now our current explanation of seasons
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is that the Earth's axis is tilted like that,
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so each hemisphere tilts towards the sun for half the year,
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and away for the other half.
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[Not to scale!]
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Better put that up.
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(Laughter)
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That's a good explanation:
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hard to vary,
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because every detail plays a functional role.
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For instance, we know, independently of seasons,
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that surfaces tilted away from radiant heat are heated less,
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and that a spinning sphere, in space,
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points in a constant direction.
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And the tilt also explains
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the sun's angle of elevation at different times of year,
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and predicts that the seasons will be out of phase in the two hemispheres.
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If they'd been observed in phase,
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the theory would have been refuted.
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But now, the fact that it's also a good explanation, hard to vary,
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makes the crucial difference.
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If the ancient Greeks had found out about seasons in Australia,
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they could have easily varied their myth to predict that.
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For instance, when Demeter's upset,
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she banishes heat from her vicinity into the other hemisphere,
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where it makes summer.
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So, being proved wrong by observation
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and changing their theory accordingly
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still wouldn't have got the ancient Greeks one jot closer to understanding seasons,
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because their explanation was bad -- easy to vary.
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And it's only when an explanation is good
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that it even matters whether it's testable.
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If the axis-tilt theory had been refuted,
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its defenders would have had nowhere to go.
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No easily implemented change
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could make that tilt cause the same seasons in both hemispheres.
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The search for hard-to-vary explanations is the origin of all progress.
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It's the basic regulating principle of the Enlightenment.
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So, in science, two false approaches blight progress.
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One's well-known: untestable theories.
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But the more important one is explanationless theories.
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Whenever you're told that some existing statistical trend will continue
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but you aren't given a hard-to-vary account of what causes that trend,
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you're being told a wizard did it.
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When you are told that carrots have human rights
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because they share half our genes,
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but not how gene percentages confer rights -- wizard.
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When someone announces that the nature-nurture debate
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has been settled
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because there's evidence that a given percentage of our political opinions
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are genetically inherited,
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but they don't explain how genes cause opinions,
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they've settled nothing.
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They're saying that our opinions are caused by wizards,
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and presumably, so are their own.
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(Laughter)
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That the truth consists of hard-to-vary assertions about reality
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is the most important fact about the physical world.
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It's a fact that is itself unseen,
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yet impossible to vary.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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