Rory Sutherland: Sweat the small stuff

翻译人员: Lan Xu 校对人员: HUI YU

Those of you who may remember me from TEDGlobal

对我在TEDGlobal（TED全球会议）有印象的观众们

remember me asking a few questions

大概会记得我曾经提出过一些问题

which still preoccupy me.

直到现在仍然困扰着我。

One of them was: Why is it necessary to spend

有一个问题是这样的:为何政府要花费

six billion pounds

60亿英镑

speeding up the Eurostar train

来提速欧洲之星列车

when, for about 10 percent of that money,

而仅仅花费十分之一的预算

you could have top supermodels, male and female,

就可以请到顶级名模们

serving free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers

为乘客们免费提供波得路堡红葡萄酒

for the entire duration of the journey?

让旅客们享受整个旅程

You'd still have five billion left in change,

这样政府能省下50亿

and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.

乘客们还会要求火车减速

Now, you may remember me asking the question as well,

你大概也记得我的另一个问题

a very interesting observation,

一个很有趣的观察

that actually those strange little signs

那些公路上奇怪的小标示牌

that actually flash "35" at you,

持续闪烁着“35“

occasionally accompanying a little smiley face

偶尔伴随着一个笑脸

or a frown,

或者愁脸

according to whether you're within or outside the speed limit --

取决于你是否超速

those are actually more effective

它们其实比测速机

at preventing road accidents than speed cameras,

更有效地预防了车祸的发生

which come with the actual threat

尽管后者以实施惩罚

of real punishment.

来警戒驾驶人

So there seems to be a strange disproportionality at work,

因此这里有一种奇怪的失衡

I think, in many areas of human problem solving,

在我们解决各种问题的时候

particularly those which involve human psychology,

特别涉及到人类心理方面时

which is: The tendency

那即是各种组织和机构

of the organization or the institution

往往倾向于

is to deploy as much force as possible,

尽可能布置多的财力物力

as much compulsion as possible,

施加压力

whereas actually, the tendency of the person

然而，最终人们的选择倾向

is to be almost influenced

所受的影响

in absolute reverse proportion

往往与其投入

to the amount of force being applied.

成反比

So there seems to be a complete disconnect here.

这里就出现了一个完全的脱节

So what I'm asking for is the creation of a new job title --

我认为应该出现一种新型的职业

I'll come to this a little later --

我稍后会谈到

and perhaps the addition of a new word

并且很有可能引出一个新的

into the English language.

英文名词

Because it does seem to me that large organizations

在我看来，众多大型组织

including government, which is, of course, the largest organization of all,

包括政府，这一最大的组织在内

have actually become

都变得

completely disconnected

与群众的实际需要

with what actually matters to people.

完全脱节了

Let me give you one example of this.

就此举一个例吧

You may remember this as the AOL-Time Warner merger, okay,

还记得美国在线与时代华纳的合并吧

heralded at the time as the largest

它当时被称为有史以来最大的

single deal of all time.

单笔交易

It may still be, for all I know.

据我所知，很有可能现在仍是

Now, all of you in this room, in one form or other,

我想在座的各位，以这样或那样的途径，

are probably customers of one or both

都有可能是

of those organizations that merged.

两家合并公司（之一）的客户

Just interested, did anybody notice anything different

那么，是否有人注意到

as a result of this at all?

合并带来的任何变化？

So unless you happened to be a shareholder

所以除非你恰好是

of one or the other organizations

两公司中某一个的持股者

or one of the dealmakers or lawyers involved in the no-doubt lucrative activity,

或者是参与到这次“高利润活动”中的交易者或律师

you're actually engaging in a huge piece of activity

否则实际上你根本没有体验到任何变化

that meant absolutely bugger-all to anybody, okay?

其实这对所有人都毫无意义

By contrast, years of marketing have taught me

与之相反的是，多年来的市场策划让我意识到

that if you actually want people to remember you

如果你要让别人记住

and to appreciate what you do,

并感激你的所作所为

the most potent things are actually very, very small.

最有用的其实是那些非常非常小的事

This is from Virgin Atlantic upper-class,

这是在维珍大西洋航班的头等舱里

it's the cruet salt and pepper set.

这是盐和胡椒调味瓶

Quite nice in itself, they're little, sort of, airplane things.

他们看起来十分可爱，又无足轻重，类似于飞机上的免费用品

What's really, really sweet is every single person looking at these things

有趣的是每个人看到它们

has exactly the same mischievous thought,

心里都会偷偷地想

which is, "I reckon I can heist these."

说不定我可以把它们带走

However, you pick them up and underneath,

然而，当你拿起它们时

actually engraved in the metal, are the words,

会发现底座刻着这样的话

"Stolen from Virgin Atlantic Airways upper-class."

盗于维珍大西洋航班头等舱

(Laughter)

笑声

Now, years after

多年以后

you remember the strategic question

当你早已忘记

of whether you're flying in a 777 or an Airbus,

当年坐的是波音777还是空中客机时

you remember those words and that experience.

你会记得那段有趣的话和那次经历

Similarly, this is from a hotel in Stockholm, the Lydmar.

同样的，这是在斯德克尔摩一个名为Lydmar的宾馆电梯里

Has anybody stayed there?

有人住过那里吗

It's the lift, it's a series of buttons in the lift.

电梯里有一串按钮

Nothing unusual about that at all,

看似平常

except that these are actually not the buttons that take you to an individual floor.

然而它们代表的并不是各个楼层

It starts with garage at the bottom, I suppose, appropriately,

最下面的按钮是garage，没什么奇怪的

but it doesn't go up garage, grand floor, mezzanine, one, two, three, four.

然而再往上却不是底层，中层楼，一，二，三，四

It actually says garage, funk, rhythm and blues.

这些按钮上其实写着车库，朋克，蓝调

You have a series of buttons. You actually choose your lift music.

它们是供你选择电梯的音乐风格

My guess is that the cost of installing this in the lift

我猜想在Lydmar酒店的电梯里

in the Lydmar Hotel in Stockholm

安装一个这样的系统

is probably 500 to 1,000 pounds max.

花费至多在500到1000镑

It's frankly more memorable

但说实话

than all those millions of hotels we've all stayed at

这比绝大多数我们曾住过的酒店更让人印象深刻

that tell you that your room has actually been recently renovated

尽管在那些酒店你常常被告知所住的房间才被装修过

at a cost of 500,000 dollars,

耗资50万美元

in order to make it resemble every other hotel room you've ever stayed in

但那不过使它显得

in the entire course of your life.

和你住过的其他酒店客房一个样

Now, these are trivial marketing examples, I accept.

是的，这些都是微小的市场策划的案例。

But I was at a TED event recently and Esther Duflo,

在我最近参与的一次TED活动中, 杜芙洛（法国经济学家）

probably one of the leading experts in,

很可能是消除发展中国家贫困现状这一领域的

effectively, the eradication of poverty in the developing world,

领头专家之一

actually spoke.

也谈到了这样的案例

And she came across a similar example

她提出了一个类似的方案

of something that fascinated me

我对此很感兴趣

as being something which, in a business context or a government context,

然而在商界和政界看来

would simply be so trivial a solution

这个方案是如此的微不足道

as to seem embarrassing.

以至提出它显得让人尴尬

It was simply to encourage the inoculation of children

这个方案就是提倡孩子的疫苗接种

by, not only making it a social event --

首先让它一种社会性活动

I think good use of behavioral economics in that,

我认为这是对行为经济学很好的应用

if you turn up with several other mothers

如果你与另外几个母亲一起

to have your child inoculated,

带着孩子去接种

your sense of confidence is much greater than if you turn up alone.

你将比独自去更有信心

But secondly, to incentivize that inoculation

更重要的是，为了鼓励接种

by giving a kilo of lentils to everybody who participated.

政府应给每个参与接种的人一公斤扁豆

It's a tiny, tiny thing.

这是一件很小很小的事

If you're a senior person at UNESCO

如果你是联合国科教文组织的一个高级官员

and someone says, "So what are you doing

当某人问起：“那你要怎么

to eradicate world poverty?"

消除当今世界的贫困问题呢？“

you're not really confident standing up there

你不可能自信满满地回答

saying, "I've got it cracked; it's the lentils," are you?

”我搞定了，就用扁豆。“ 不是么？

Our own sense of self-aggrandizement

自夸的心理让我们总觉得

feels that big important problems

重要的问题

need to have big important, and most of all, expensive

要用看起来重大且十分昂贵的方式

solutions attached to them.

来解决

And yet, what behavioral economics shows time after time after time

其实不然，行为经济学一再而再地表明

is in human behavioral and behavioral change

在人类干预和行为改变之间

there's a very, very strong disproportionality at work,

其实存在着严重的比例失调

that actually what changes our behavior

那些能够真正改变我们行为

and what changes our attitude to things

和态度的事

is not actually proportionate to the degree

其实不需要花费

of expense entailed,

其看似所需的财力

or the degree of force that's applied.

或物力

But everything about institutions

但机构的本身

makes them uncomfortable

决定了它无法习惯

with that disproportionality.

这种不成比例

So what happens in an institution

于是便造成机构中

is the very person who has the power to solve the problem

负责解决问题的人

also has a very, very large budget.

往往拥有巨额的预算

And once you have a very, very large budget,

而一旦有了巨额预算

you actually look for expensive things to spend it on.

人们便不由自主地寻找费钱的方式去解决问题

What is completely lacking is a class of people

当今我们缺乏的正是那些有

who have immense amounts of power, but no money at all.

着巨大权利却分文没有的人

(Laughter)

笑声

It's those people I'd quite like to create

我希望在这日新月异的世界中

in the world going forward.

能出现这样的人才

Now, here's another thing that happens,

还有一个现象

which is what I call sometimes "Terminal 5 syndrome,"

我有时把它称之为“第五航站楼综合症”

which is that big, expensive things

它是指：要完成耗资巨大的重要事件

get big, highly-intelligent attention,

需要人们集中才智和精力

and they're great, and Terminal 5 is absolutely magnificent,

人们会取得很不错的成果，比如5号航站楼是绝对的宏伟摩登

until you get down to the small detail, the usability,

然而直到你注意到一些小细节的实用性，就会发现

which is the signage,

比如它的指示牌

which is catastrophic.

其实是相当糟糕的

You come out of "Arrive" at the airport, and you follow

走出机场的“抵达”口后

a big yellow sign that says "Trains" and it's in front of you.

你看到面前一个黄色的指示牌上写着“火车”

So you walk for another hundred yards,

于是你跟随指示走上几百码

expecting perhaps another sign,

搜寻着新的指示牌

that might courteously be yellow, in front of you and saying "Trains."

期待着黄色的“火车”标志

No, no, no, the next one is actually blue, to your left,

然而下一个却是蓝色的，在你的左方

and says "Heathrow Express."

上面写着“希斯罗高速”

I mean, it could almost be rather like that scene from the film "Airplane."

这简直太像电影“飞机”里的搞笑场景了

A yellow sign? That's exactly what they'll be expecting.

黄色的指示牌？那正是他们所期待的。

Actually, what happens in the world increasingly --

实际上，当今世界越来越多地出现这种情况

now, all credit to the British Airport Authority.

全归功于英国机场当局（对细节的忽略）

I spoke about this before,

我曾经也谈到过这个问题

and a brilliant person got in touch with me and said, "Okay, what can you do?"

当时一个睿智的人后来问我"好吧，那你说应该怎么办？“

So I did come up with five suggestions, which they are actually actioning.

我给了他五个建议，而我的建议竟然被采纳了。

One of them also being,

但是其中的一个建议

although logically it's quite a good idea

尽管逻辑上讲是不错的

to have a lift with no up and down button in it,

即是电梯里不安上下键

if it only serves two floors,

但如果电梯只在两层楼间运作的话

it's actually bloody terrifying, okay?

那样其实是很恐怖的一件事

Because when the door closes

因为当门关上后

and there's nothing for you to do,

你什么都不用做了

you've actually just stepped into a Hammer film.

仿佛此刻你一脚踏进了恐怖电影的场景里

(Laughter)

笑声

So these questions ... what is happening in the world

这种种的问题都说明了，当今世界

is the big stuff, actually,

重大的问题

is done magnificently well.

被解决得很好

But the small stuff, what you might call the user interface,

而细节问题，类似于用户连接口的问题

is done spectacularly badly.

却解决得十分糟糕

But also, there seems to be a complete sort of gridlock

同时，在解决这些细节问题时

in terms of solving these small solutions.

人们往往陷入一种僵局

Because the people who can actually solve them

因为那些真正能够解决问题的人

actually are too powerful and too preoccupied

往往权高位重，整天忙于

with something they think of as "strategy" to actually solve them.

思考“战略性”的问题而不是实际地去解决

I tried this exercise recently, talking about banking.

说到银行业，我最近遇到了这样一件事

They said, "Can we do an advertising campaign?

一些银行业人士向我咨询“我们能够以广告来竞争吗？

What can we do and encourage more online banking?"

我们怎样能推广银行在线业务呢

I said, "It's really, really easy."

我说，“这其实相当简单。“

I said, "When people login to their online bank

比如，“当人们登陆到他们的网上银行里

there are lots and lots of things they'd probably quite like to look at.

是为了查看各种信息

The last thing in the world you ever want to see is your balance."

而最不愿意看到的就是自己的结余。

I've got friends who actually

我有一些朋友

never use their own bank cash machines

从来没有用过自己银行的现金取款机

because there's the risk that it might display

仅仅因为怕在屏幕上

their balance on the screen.

看到自己的结余。

Why would you willingly expose yourself to bad news?

谁愿意让自己得知坏消息呢？

Okay, you simply wouldn't.

我才不呢

I said, "If you make, actually, 'Tell me my balance.'

我告诉他们，“如果你们把“显示我的结余”改为可选

If you make that an option rather than the default,

而不是让它自动显示

you'll find twice as many people log on to online banking,

那么你登陆网上银行的客户将会翻一番

and they do it three times as often."

并且登陆频率增加两倍

Let's face it, most of us -- how many of you

说实话，我们在座有多少人

actually check your balance before you remove cash from a cash machine?

会在取现后查看自己的收支状况？

And you're pretty rich by the standards of the world at large.

还不用说按世界平均水平来看你们大多属于有钱人

Now, interesting that no single person does that,

看吧，一个也没有

or at least can admit to being so anal as to do it.

或者说即使有也不愿承认自己会那样做

But what's interesting about that suggestion

关于这些提议，有趣的是

was that, to implement that suggestion wouldn't cost 10 million pounds;

要实行它花不了一千英镑

it wouldn't involve large amounts of expenditure;

实际花得挺少

it would actually cost about 50 quid.

不过50磅左右

And yet, it never happens.

然而它至今没有被实行

Because there's a fundamental disconnect, as I said,

这就回到了我所说的严重脱节问题上

that actually, the people with the power

即有权的人

want to do big expensive things.

想做费钱的事

And there's to some extent a big strategy myth

现在有一种策略误解现象

that's prevalent in business now.

在商界很普遍

And if you think about it, it's very, very important

如果多加思考便会发现，其实是非常有必要

that the strategy myth is maintained.

维持这种现状的

Because, if the board of directors convince everybody

因为董事会得说服公司成员

that the success of any organization

任何集体的成功

is almost entirely dependent on the decisions made by the board of directors,

都几乎完全归功于董事会所作的决策

it makes the disparity in salaries

这才能使薪水上巨大的差异

slightly more justifiable

显得更加合理

than if you actually acknowledge that quite a lot of the credit for a company's success

而不是去承认公司的成功

might actually lie somewhere else,

其实在于许多别的方面

in small pieces of tactical activity.

比如那些微不足道的战略性活动

But what is happening is that effectively --

然而，现在的实际情况是——

and the invention of the spreadsheet hasn't helped this;

电子表格并没有促成这一状况

lots of things haven't helped this --

很多事情也与此无关——

business and government suffers from a kind of physics envy.

在商界和政界都有一种妒忌心理

It wants the world to be the kind of place where

它们希望这在个世界里

the input and the change are proportionate.

投入与产出是成正比的

It's a kind of mechanistic world

我们都喜欢生活在一个

that we'd all love to live in

符合机械理论的世界里

where, effectively, it sits very nicely on spreadsheets,

所有的事物都可以通过数据

everything is numerically expressible,

清晰地在电子表格上表示出来

and the amount you spend on something is proportionate

而你在事物上所花的时间

to the scale of your success.

将与你的收效成正比

That's the world people actually want.

这样的世界大家都渴望

In truth, we do live in a world that science can understand.

而我们也的确生活在一个以科学为基调的世界

Unfortunately, the science is probably closer to being climatology

不幸的是，这里科学可能更接近于气象学

in that in many cases,

在很多情况下

very, very small changes

微小的改变

can have disproportionately huge effects,

也可能带来天翻地覆的变化

and equally, vast areas of activity, enormous mergers,

而恰恰相反，大范围的运作，巨大的公司合并

can actually accomplish absolutely bugger-all.

到头来却没有带来任何改变

But it's very, very uncomfortable for us

但要我们承认这一点

to actually acknowledge that we're living in such a world.

是十分困难的

But what I'm saying is we could just make things

我想说的是，许多事情

a little bit better for ourselves

将会变得更加容易

if we looked at it in this very simple four-way approach.

如果我们把问题分成这样四大类

That is actually strategy, and I'm not denying that strategy has a role.

这才是一种策略，当然不否认每种策略都有它的适用性

You know, there are cases where you spend quite a lot of money

要知道，毕竟也有的事情是需要花费大量财力

and you accomplish quite a lot.

才能取得大的成果

And I'd be wrong to dis that completely.

我不否认这一点

Moving over, we come, of course, to consultancy.

接下来我们就来说一下咨询方面

(Laughter)

笑声

I thought it was very indecent of Accenture

在我看来，埃森哲（一家咨询公司，主要提供管理咨询，技术咨询和外包服务）

to ditch Tiger Woods in such

这样草率地抛弃泰格伍兹

a sort of hurried and hasty way.

是一件很不光彩的事

I mean, Tiger surely was actually obeying the Accenture model.

因为泰格实际上是遵循了埃森哲服务模式的

He developed an interesting outsourcing model for sexual services,

他为性服务建立起一个有趣的外包模式

(Laughter)

笑声

no longer tied to a single monopoly provider,

不再被单一的供货商垄断(婚外性行为）

in many cases, sourcing things locally,

在很多情况下本地采购（性伴侣）

and of course, the ability to have between one and three girls delivered at any time

同时，在任何时候都能保证一到三个女孩供应

led for better load-balancing.

使得负载更加平衡

So what Accenture suddenly found so unattractive about that, I'm not sure.

所以我实在搞不懂为什么埃森哲突然不喜欢泰格了

Then there are other things that don't cost much and achieve absolutely nothing.

还有一类事情尽管不需要花费太多，却无法取得任何成效

That's called trivia.

人们称之为琐碎

But there's a fourth thing.

但最后这一类事情，即第四类

And the fundamental problem is we don't actually have a word for this stuff.

我们难以用言语来描述

We don't know what to call it.

我们不知如何指代它

And actually we don't spend nearly enough money

而且我们很少花费资金

looking for those things,

来寻找这类事

looking for those tiny things that may or may not work,

它们尽管微不足道，但却有可能带来大的改变

but which, if they do work,

如果确实起了作用

can have a success absolutely out of proportion

那么它们将取得的成功绝对会远远超出

to their expense, their efforts

当初所投入的人力物力

and the disruption they cause.

和造成的干扰

So the first thing I'd like

因此，首先我希望

is a competition -- to anybody watching this as a film --

每一个看过这次演讲的人都来参与这样一个竞赛

is to come up with a name for that stuff on the bottom right.

即为右下角的这第四种事物命

And the second thing, I think,

其次，我认为

is that the world needs to have people in charge of that.

这个世界需要有人来掌握这种事物

That's why I call for the "Chief Detail Officer."

这就是为什么我呼吁“细节总官员”的设立

Every corporation should have one,

每个公司都应该有一个这样的职位

and every government should have a Ministry of Detail.

而每个政府都应该有一个细节部门

The people who actually have no money,

担任此职的人不应当有钱

who have no extravagant budget,

或者豪华预算

but who realize that actually

并且要能意识这样一点

you might achieve greater success in uptake

付双倍的代价有可能

of a government program

在政府工作中

by actually doubling the level of benefits you pay,

取得更大的政绩

but you'll probably achieve exactly that same effect

但你也往往也能取得同样的效果

simply by redesigning the form

仅仅通过重新设计表格

and writing it in comprehensible English.

并以更易懂的英文表述

And if actually we created a Ministry of Detail

如果我们的政界能设立一个细节部门

and business actually had Chief Detail Officers,

而商界有一个总细节长官

then that fourth quadrant,

那么这第四类

which is so woefully neglected at the moment,

常可悲地被人遗忘的事物

might finally get the attention it deserves.

可能最终将得到其应有的关注

Thank you very much.

非常感谢大家