The next manufacturing revolution is here | Olivier Scalabre

翻译人员: Chen Wang 校对人员: Zhiting Chen

Guys, we have an issue.

各位，我们遇到问题了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Growth is fading away, and it's a big deal.

经济增长逐渐放缓， 这可是个大问题。

Our global economy stops growing.

全球经济停止增长。

And it's not new.

这已经不是什么新闻了。

Growth has actually declined for the last 50 years.

事实上过去50年来 增速一直在逐渐放缓。

If we continue like this, we need to learn

如果这一态势延续下去， 我们就必须学习

how to live in a world with no growth in the next decade.

如何在无经济增长的情况下生存。

This is scary because when the economy doesn't grow,

这听起来很恐怖， 因为一旦经济发展停滞，

our children don't get better lives.

我们的孩子就无法拥有更好的生活。

What's even scarier is that when the pie does not grow,

更加可怕的是一旦馅饼不再变大，

each of us get a smaller piece.

每个人分到的份额就会更小，

We're then ready to fight for a bigger one.

要随时备战以争取更大的馅饼。

This creates tensions and serious conflicts.

形势就会紧张，出现严重的冲突。

Growth matters a lot.

经济增长事关重大。

If we look at the history of growth,

如果我们回顾经济增长史，

times of big growth have always been fueled

就会发现高速增长往往都由

by big manufacturing revolutions.

大型工业革命带动。

It happened three times, every 50-60 years.

这在历史上一共发生了三次， 每50到60年一次。

The steam engine in the middle of the 19th century,

它们分别是： 19世纪中叶的蒸汽机，

the mass-production model in the beginning of the 20th century --

20世纪早期的大规模生产模型——

thanks, Mr. Ford.

这要感谢福特先生。

And the first automation wave in the 1970s.

和20世纪70年代的 第一次自动化浪潮。

Why did these manufacturing revolutions

为什么这些工业革命

create huge growth in our economies?

会引发经济高速增长呢？

Because they have injected huge productivity improvement.

因为他们显著提高了生产效率。

It's rather simple:

这其实很简单：

in order to grow, you need to be producing more,

为了实现增长， 人们需要生产更多的产品，

putting more into our economy.

为我们的经济投入更多的资源。

This means either more labor or more capital or more productivity.

这就意味着需要更多劳动力， 更多资本，或更高的生产力。

Each time, productivity has been the growth lever.

每次，生产力都是 经济增长的杠杆因素。

I'm here today to tell you

我今天想要告诉各位

that we are on the verge of another huge change,

我们即将经历另一次剧变，

and that this change, surprisingly enough,

这次改变，出乎意料的是，

is going to come from manufacturing, again.

也再次会从制造业开始。

It will get us out of our growth slump

它将使我们走出经济的萧条期，

and it will change radically the way globalization has been shaped

会从根本上改变过去十年

over the last decade.

全球化塑造的状况。

I'm here to tell you about the amazing fourth manufacturing revolution

现在我要告诉大家，第四次工业革命

that is currently underway.

已经在发生了。

It's not as if we've done nothing with manufacturing

这并不意味着 自上次工业革命以来

since the last revolution.

我们没有任何进步。

Actually, we've made some pretty lame attempts

事实上，我们做了几次努力

to try to revitalize it.

试图重振工业经济。

But none of them have been the big overhaul

但成效甚微，

we really need to get us growing again.

不足以让经济恢复增长。

For example, we've tried to relocate our factories offshore

比如说，我们曾试图将工厂迁至海外，

in order to reduce cost and take advantage of cheap labor.

利用当地廉价劳动力， 从而降低成本。

Not only did this not inspire productivity,

但这不仅没有提高生产力，

but it only saved money for a short period of time,

还只是在短期内节省了成本，

because cheap labor didn't stay cheap for long.

因为廉价劳动力不会永远廉价。

Then, we've tried to make our factories larger

之后，我们还试图把工厂做大，

and we specialized them by product.

对每种产品进行专门化生产。

The idea was that we can make a lot of one product

这个想法是基于 如果我们可以只做一种产品

and stockpile it to be sold with demand.

囤积起来以根据需求售卖。

这个做法确实 在一段时间内提高了生产力。

This did help productivity for a while.

But it introduced a lot of rigidities in our supply chain.

但它让我们的供应链非常死板。

Let's take fashion retail.

让我们以服饰时尚零售业为例。

Traditional clothing companies

传统的服装企业

have built offshore, global, rigid supply chains.

建立了位于海外的，全球化的 僵化的供应链。

When fast-fashion competitors like Zara

当像Zara等“快速时尚”竞争者

started replenishing their stocks faster

加快存货周转率，

from two collections a year to one collection a month,

从一年两个时装系列 提高到一个月一个时装系列，

none of them have been able to keep up with the pace.

传统的服装企业 就都跟不上其节奏了。

Most of them are in great difficulties today.

它们中的绝大多数如今都陷入了危机。

Yet, with all of their shortcomings,

但是，尽管有这些缺点，

those are the factories we know today.

这些企业都依然很知名。

When you open the doors,

当你打开门出去看看时，

they look the same as they did 50 years ago.

你会发现这些工厂 和50年前一模一样。

We've just changed the location, the size, the way they operate.

我们仅仅变换了工厂的位置、 大小和运作方式。

Can you name anything else that looks the same

你们还能列举出任何

五十年没有改变的例子吗？

as it did 50 years ago?

It's crazy.

这太难以置信了。

We've made all the tweaks to the model that we could,

我们已尽我们所能 对该模型进行调整，

and now we hit its limits.

但目前已经达到了极限。

After all of our attempts to fix the manufacturing model failed,

在对修补工业模型做出的 全部尝试都失败后，

we thought growth could come from elsewhere.

我们猜测经济增长 或许可以来自其他领域。

We turned to the tech sector --

我们转向科技行业——

there's been quite a lot of innovations there.

那里有相当多的创新活动。

Just to name one: the Internet.

举一个例子：因特网。

We hoped it could produce growth.

我们希望网络能够带来增长。

And indeed, it changed our lives.

事实上，它改变了我们的生活。

It made big waves in the media, the service, the entertainment spaces.

它对传媒业、服务业 和娱乐产业都带来了极大影响。

But it hasn't done much for productivity.

但是它并未对生产力带来多大改变。

Actually, what's surprising is that productivity is on the decline

实际上，令人惊讶的是， 尽管有这么多的创新的尝试，

despite all of those innovation efforts.

生产力却一直在下降。

Imagine that -- sitting at work, scrolling through Facebook,

想象一下——上班的时候， 刷刷Facebook，

watching videos on YouTube has made us less productive.

在YouTube上看看视频， 这都让我们的生产效率降低了。

Weird.

很奇怪吧。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

This is why we are not growing.

这就是为什么经济未能增长。

We failed at reinventing the manufacturing space,

我们未能重新创造工业生产活动，

and large technological innovations have played away from it.

与此同时大型技术创新却与之相背。

But what if we could combine those forces?

但如果我们把这些结合起来 会发生什么？

What if the existing manufacturing and large technological innovation

将当下的制造业与 大型技术创新结合起来，

came together to create the next big manufacturing reinvention.

也许会引发下一次大型工业革命。

Bingo!

没错！

This is the fourth manufacturing revolution,

这就是第四次工业革命，

and it's happening right now.

而它此时此刻正在发生。

Major technologies are entering the manufacturing space,

重大技术革新正在进入制造业领域，

big time.

这是个重大时刻。

They will boost industrial productivity by more than a third.

它将会使生产力提高超过三分之一。

This is massive, and it will do a lot in creating growth.

这个巨大的改变，将引发经济的增长。

Let me tell you about some of them.

让我来向各位举几个例子。

Have you already met advanced manufacturing robots?

不知在座各位知不知道 高级工业机器人？

They are the size of humans,

它们和人类大小相仿，

they actually collaborate with them,

可以和人类合作，

and they can be programmed

可以通过设定好的程序

in order to perform complex, non-repetitive tasks.

来执行复杂的、非重复性的任务。

Today in our factories, only 8 percent of the tasks are automated.

当今，在我们的工厂里 只有百分之八的任务是自动化的。

The less complex, the more repetitive ones.

尤其是那些不是很复杂， 且重复性更强的任务。

It will be 25 percent in 10 years.

在未来十年内这一数字 会增长到百分之二十五。

It means that by 2025,

这意味着到2025年，

advanced robots will complement workers

高级机器人将与工人合作，

to be, together, 20 percent more productive,

将生产率将提升20%，

to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,

产出量也将提升20%，

to achieve 20 percent additional growth.

从而实现20%的经济增长。

This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.

这并不是对未来的幻想。

These robots are working for us right now.

这些机器人现在就在为我们工作。

Last year in the US, they helped Amazon prepare and ship all the products

去年在美国， 机器人帮助亚马逊发货

required for Cyber Monday,

以应对网络星期一带来的

the annual peak of online retail.

年度线上零售消费高峰。

Last year in the US,

那是去年在美国的，

it was the biggest online shopping day of the year and of history.

有史以来最大的线上购物日。

Consumers spent 3 billion dollars on electronics that day.

消费者那天在网络上 共支出30亿美元。

That's real economic growth.

那是实实在在的经济增长。

Then there's additive manufacturing, 3D printing.

此外，还有积层制造，即3D打印技术。

3D printing has already improved plastic manufacturing

3D打印已经提升了塑料制造行业。

and it's now making its way through metal.

目前它正向钢铁行业进发。

Those are not small industries.

它们可不是小型行业。

Plastic and metals represent 25 percent

塑料和钢铁占全球

of global manufacturing production.

制造业生产的25%

Let's take a real example.

让我们看一个具体例子。

在航空航天产业，

In the aerospace industry,

fuel nozzles are some of the most complex parts to manufacture,

燃油喷嘴是最难生产的部件之一，

for one reason:

就因为一个原因：

they are made up of 20 different parts

它由20种不同部件组成，

that need to be separately produced

并且它们需要独立生产，

and then painstakingly assembled.

组装过程也极其复杂。

Aerospace companies are now using 3D printing,

航空公司现在正在采用3D打印技术，

which allows them to turn those 20 different parts

这类技术可以让它们从 需要生产20种不同部件，

into just one.

变为只生产一种。

The results?

结果呢？

40 percent more productivity,

生产力提高了百分之四十，

40 percent more output produced, 40 percent more growth

产量提高了百分之四十， 经济增长加快了百分之四十，

for this specific industry.

仅仅就在这一特定的领域。

But actually, the most exciting part of this new manufacturing revolution

但事实上，这次新工业革命 最激动人心的地方

goes much beyond productivity.

远不止生产率的提高。

It's about producing better, smarter products.

还有生产质量更优、 更为精细的产品，

It's about scale customization.

还有批量定制。

Imagine a world where you can buy the exact products you want

想象一下，你可以买到 符合你所有需求的产品，

with the functionalities you need,

具备你需要的所有功能，

with the design you want,

有你想要的设计，

with the same cost and lead time

但却和大规模生产出的产品

as a product that's been mass produced,

在价位与交付时间上相差无几，

like your car, or your clothes or your cell phone.

你可以买到你所定制的 车、衣服，甚至是手机。

The new manufacturing revolution makes it possible.

这次新工业革命让这一切变得可能。

Advanced robots can be programmed

我们可以通过对高级机器人编程，

in order to perform any product configuration

使其无须安装时间、无须缓冲

without any setup time or ramp up.

便可以完成任何产品装配。

3D printers instantaneously produce any customized design.

3D打印机可以即刻生产 任何定做的设计品。

We are now able to produce a batch of one product, your product,

现如今我们可以用大批量生产所需 同样的成本及订货交付时间

at the same cost and lead time as a batch of many.

来生产一个仅属于你的产品。

Those are only a few examples of the manufacturing revolution at play.

这些仅仅是当下工业革命的 几个例子。

Not only will manufacturing become more productive,

不仅生产率更高，

it will also become more flexible,

同时制造业还变得更具弹性，

and those were exactly the elements of growth that we are missing.

而这些恰恰是我们缺少的增长要素。

But actually, there are even some bigger implications

但实际上，制造业重回聚光灯下

for all of us when manufacturing will find its way back into the limelight.

对我们所有人而言 还有更深层次的意义。

It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.

它会带来巨大的宏观经济转变。

First, our factories will be relocated into our home markets.

首先，我们的工厂将会迁回国内市场。

In the world of scale customization,

在大规模订制的情况下，

consumer proximity is the new norm.

亲近客户将会变成新的模式。

Then, our factories will be smaller, agile.

而且，我们的工厂会变得 更小、更灵活。

Scale does not matter anymore, flexibility does.

批量化不再重要， 弹性化取而代之。

They will be operating on a multi-product, made-to-order basis.

工厂将会基于多种类产品 及订制的基础上生产。

The change will be drastic.

这将是个剧变。

Globalization will enter a new era.

全球化将进入一个新纪元。

The East-to-West trade flows

由东至西的贸易流动

will be replaced by regional trade flows.

将会被区域化贸易往来取缔。

East for East, West for West.

东部供给东部，西部供给西部。

When you think about that,

再回首看看过去的生产模式，

the old model was pretty much insane.

就会发现它有多么不切实际。

Piling up stocks, making products travel the whole world

囤积存货，在产品达到客户手上之前

before they reach their end consumers.

让它们经历一次世界旅行。

The new model, producing just next to the consumer market,

这种在客户市场附近 生产销售的新生产模式，

将会更为清洁，对环境更好。

will be much cleaner, much better for our environment.

In mature economies, manufacturing will be back home,

在成熟经济体中， 制造业将回归本国，

creating more employment,

这将创造更多就业，

more productivity and more growth.

提高生产率并且推动经济发展。

Good news, isn't it?

好消息，不是吗？

But here's the thing with growth --

但问题在于——

it does not come automatically.

经济发展并不是自然而然就会发生的。

Mature economies will have to seize it.

成熟经济体需要抓住经济发展机遇。

We'll have to massively re-train our workforce.

我们必须对劳动力 进行大规模的再培训。

In most countries, like in my country, France,

在绝大多数国家， 比如我的祖国，法国，

we've told our children that manufacturing had no future.

我们曾经告诉孩子们： 制造业是没有前途的。

That it was something happening far away.

而且很早以前就是这样了。

We need to reverse that

我们必须改变这一观点，

and teach manufacturing again at university.

在大学里重新教授制造业课程。

Only the countries that will boldly transform

只有大胆变革的国家

will be able to seize this growth.

才能够抓住这次经济发展机会。

It's also a chance for developing economies.

这对发展中国家而言 也是一个机遇。

Of course China and other emerging economies

诚然，中国和其他发展中国家

不再会是世界工厂。

won't be the factory of the world anymore.

Actually, it was not a sustainable model in the long term,

实际上，随着这些国家变得更为富有，

as those countries are becoming richer.

作为世界工厂长期来看 也不是一个可持续发展方式。

Last year, it was already as expensive to produce in Brazil

去年，巴西的生产成本

as to produce in France.

已经与法国持平。

By 2018, manufacturing costs in China will be on par with the US.

到2018年，中国的 生产成本也将追上美国。

The new manufacturing revolution

这次全新的工业革命

will accelerate the transition of those emerging economies

将会推动新兴经济体

towards a model driven by domestic consumption.

转变为以国内消费主导的发展模型。

And this is good,

这是个好消息，

because this is where growth will be created.

因为这将是未来经济增长的源泉。

In the next five years,

未来五年，

the next billion consumers in China will inject more growth in our economies

中国数十亿消费者将会为 我们的经济发展注入更多动力，

than the top five European markets together.

比欧洲内五大市场加起来还要多。

This fourth manufacturing revolution is a chance for all of us.

对我们所有人而言， 第四次工业革命都是一次机遇。

If we play it right,

如果我们正确运用它，

we'll see sustainable growth in all of our economies.

我们将会看到我们的经济持续发展。

This means more wealth distributed to all of us

这意味着分给我们 所有人的财富会增加，

and a better future for our children.

我们的孩子们也将 拥有一个更好的未来。

Thank you.

感谢各位！

(Applause)

（掌声）