The next manufacturing revolution is here | Olivier Scalabre

譯者: Jin Wu 審譯者: Kin Ch

Guys, we have an issue.

我們現在有一個問題。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Growth is fading away, and it's a big deal.

增長正在放緩， 這將是一個巨大的問題。

Our global economy stops growing.

全球經濟已經停止增長。

And it's not new.

這不是什麼新消息。

Growth has actually declined for the last 50 years.

經濟增長其實在過去的五十年裡 就已經開始放緩。

If we continue like this, we need to learn

如果我們繼續這樣下去， 我們需要來學習

how to live in a world with no growth in the next decade.

如何在數十年的經濟停滯中生活。

This is scary because when the economy doesn't grow,

這很恐怖，因為當經濟停滯增長時，

our children don't get better lives.

我們的孩子們就沒法有更好的生活。

What's even scarier is that when the pie does not grow,

更恐怖的是，

當經濟成長大餅停止增長時，

each of us get a smaller piece.

每個人可以得到的份量也會減少。

We're then ready to fight for a bigger one.

屆時，我們就會有爭端。

This creates tensions and serious conflicts.

這將會造成嚴重的分歧 以及緊張的局勢。

Growth matters a lot.

經濟增長意義重大。

If we look at the history of growth,

如果我們回顧以前的增長，

times of big growth have always been fueled

那些大型的增長總是

by big manufacturing revolutions.

以大型的製造業革命為動力推動的。

It happened three times, every 50-60 years.

它發生過三次， 每次間隔五到六十年。

The steam engine in the middle of the 19th century,

十九世紀中的蒸汽機，

the mass-production model in the beginning of the 20th century --

二十世紀初的量產化，

thanks, Mr. Ford.

感謝福特先生的貢獻。

And the first automation wave in the 1970s.

另外還有 1970 年代的自動化進程。

Why did these manufacturing revolutions

為什麼這些生產業的革命

create huge growth in our economies?

製造了巨大的經濟增長？

Because they have injected huge productivity improvement.

因為它們令我們的 經濟増加了巨大的生產力。

It's rather simple:

簡單說就是，

in order to grow, you need to be producing more,

要使經濟增長，就要製造更多，

putting more into our economy.

投入更多東西進入我們的經濟。

This means either more labor or more capital or more productivity.

這意味著更多工人， 更多資本，或者更多生產力。

Each time, productivity has been the growth lever.

每一次，生產力都是經濟的推動者。

I'm here today to tell you

今天，我要在這裡向你們講述

that we are on the verge of another huge change,

我們現在站在下一個 巨大變革的邊緣，

and that this change, surprisingly enough,

這個變革，萬萬想不到，

is going to come from manufacturing, again.

將再一次從工業生產發起。

It will get us out of our growth slump

這將扭轉我們經濟的放緩，

and it will change radically the way globalization has been shaped

並從根本上改變 我們過去十年已有的全球化。

over the last decade.

I'm here to tell you about the amazing fourth manufacturing revolution

現在我要講述目前正在發生的

that is currently underway.

第四次工業革命。

It's not as if we've done nothing with manufacturing

這並不意味著自上次工業革命以來

since the last revolution.

我們的工業毫無技術增長。

Actually, we've made some pretty lame attempts

事實上，我們做了幾次嘗試

to try to revitalize it.

企圖重振工業。

But none of them have been the big overhaul

但成效甚微，

we really need to get us growing again.

不足以讓經濟復甦。

For example, we've tried to relocate our factories offshore

比方說 ，我們曾試圖 將工廠遷至海外，

in order to reduce cost and take advantage of cheap labor.

利用當地廉價勞動力從而降低成本。

Not only did this not inspire productivity,

但這卻沒有提高勞動力，

but it only saved money for a short period of time,

反而只在短期內節省了成本，

because cheap labor didn't stay cheap for long.

因為廉價勞動力不會永遠廉價。

Then, we've tried to make our factories larger

此後，我們還企圖擴大工廠，

and we specialized them by product.

對每種產品進行專門化生產。

The idea was that we can make a lot of one product

這個想法基於 我們可以只做一種產品

and stockpile it to be sold with demand.

囤積起來以滿足需求。

This did help productivity for a while.

這個做法確實在 一段時間內提高了產能，

But it introduced a lot of rigidities in our supply chain.

但它讓我們的生產方式非常死板。

Let's take fashion retail.

以服飾時尚零售業為例，

Traditional clothing companies

傳統的服裝企業

have built offshore, global, rigid supply chains.

在海外設立全球化工廠 ， 生產鏈不易變通。

When fast-fashion competitors like Zara

當像颯拉 (Zara) 等快時尚品牌

started replenishing their stocks faster

為加快存貨周轉率，

from two collections a year to one collection a month,

從一年兩個時裝系列 提高到一個月一次。

none of them have been able to keep up with the pace.

傳統的服裝企業都跟不上其節奏，

Most of them are in great difficulties today.

致使它們絶大多數如今都陷入危機。

Yet, with all of their shortcomings,

但是儘管有這些缺點，

those are the factories we know today.

這些企業都依然很有名。

When you open the doors,

當你去看這些品牌與其工廠時，

they look the same as they did 50 years ago.

你會發現它們和 50 年前一模一樣，

We've just changed the location, the size, the way they operate.

僅僅變換了工廠的位置， 大小和運作方式。

Can you name anything else that looks the same

你們還能列舉出其它

as it did 50 years ago?

和 50 年前一樣不變的例子嗎？

It's crazy.

這很瘋狂。

We've made all the tweaks to the model that we could,

我們已盡我們所能對其 模式進行調整，

and now we hit its limits.

目前已經達到了極限，

After all of our attempts to fix the manufacturing model failed,

在對修補工業生產模式 做出的努力都失敗後，

we thought growth could come from elsewhere.

我們猜測經濟增長或許 來自其他地方。

We turned to the tech sector --

我們轉向研究科技行業，

there's been quite a lot of innovations there.

那裡有大量的創新。

Just to name one: the Internet.

比如，網際網路。

We hoped it could produce growth.

我們希望網路能夠帶來增長。

And indeed, it changed our lives.

的確，它改變了我們的生活。

It made big waves in the media, the service, the entertainment spaces.

它對傳媒業，服務業和娛樂產業 都帶來了巨大影響。

But it hasn't done much for productivity.

但是它並未對生產力本身 帶來多大改變。

Actually, what's surprising is that productivity is on the decline

實際上，令人驚異的是 生產力卻一直在下降，

despite all of those innovation efforts.

儘管有這麼多的努力去創新。

Imagine that -- sitting at work, scrolling through Facebook,

想像一下，上班時候看看臉書，

watching videos on YouTube has made us less productive.

在 YouTube 上看看影片， 這些都令生產力下降。

Weird.

奇怪吧？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

This is why we are not growing.

這就是為什麼經濟未能增長。

We failed at reinventing the manufacturing space,

我們未能重新定義製造場所，

and large technological innovations have played away from it.

與此同時大型技術創新卻與之相背。

But what if we could combine those forces?

但如果我們把這些力量 結合起來，會發生什麼？

What if the existing manufacturing and large technological innovation

將當下的製造業 與大型技術創新結合起來，

came together to create the next big manufacturing reinvention.

會不會引發下一次大型工業革命？

Bingo!

就是這樣！

This is the fourth manufacturing revolution,

這就是第四次工業革命，

and it's happening right now.

它正在發生。

Major technologies are entering the manufacturing space,

重大技術革新正在進入製造業領域，

big time.

這是劃時代！

They will boost industrial productivity by more than a third.

它將會使生產力提高超過三分之一。

This is massive, and it will do a lot in creating growth.

這個增長相當大， 並且它將引發經濟的增長。

Let me tell you about some of them.

舉幾個例子，

Have you already met advanced manufacturing robots?

不知在座各位 知不知道高級工業機器人？

They are the size of humans,

它們和人類大小相仿，

they actually collaborate with them,

可以和人合作

and they can be programmed

可以通過設定好的程序

in order to perform complex, non-repetitive tasks.

來執行複雜、非重複性的任務。

Today in our factories, only 8 percent of the tasks are automated.

現在，在我們的工廠裡 只有百分之八的任務是自動化的，

The less complex, the more repetitive ones.

並且是那些不是很複雜、 且重複性很強的任務。

It will be 25 percent in 10 years.

在未來十年內這一數字 會增長百分之二十五。

It means that by 2025,

這意味著到 2025 年，

advanced robots will complement workers

機器人將與工人互補，

to be, together, 20 percent more productive,

生產效率將提升 20%，

to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,

從而生產力也提升 20%，

to achieve 20 percent additional growth.

經濟増長提高 20%。

This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.

這並不是假想。

These robots are working for us right now.

這些機器人現在就在為我們工作。

Last year in the US, they helped Amazon prepare and ship all the products

去年，美國亞馬遜用機器人來發貨。

required for Cyber Monday,

以應對感恩節後的「網路星期一」，

the annual peak of online retail.

年度線上零售消費高峰。

Last year in the US,

那是去年在美國

it was the biggest online shopping day of the year and of history.

有史以來最大的線上購物日。

Consumers spent 3 billion dollars on electronics that day.

消費者那天在網路上 共支出 30 億美元。

That's real economic growth.

那是實實在在的經濟增長。

Then there's additive manufacturing, 3D printing.

此外，還有工業的 3D 列印技術。

3D printing has already improved plastic manufacturing

3D 列印已經改善了塑料製造業，

and it's now making its way through metal.

目前它正向鋼鐵製造業進發。

Those are not small industries.

塑料和鋼鐵都不是小型工業。

Plastic and metals represent 25 percent

它們占全球工業生產的 25%。

of global manufacturing production.

Let's take a real example.

讓我們看一個

In the aerospace industry,

航太領域的真實例子。

fuel nozzles are some of the most complex parts to manufacture,

燃油噴嘴是最難生產的附件之一。

for one reason:

因為，

they are made up of 20 different parts

它由 20 種不同零件組成，

that need to be separately produced

並且它們需要獨立生產，

and then painstakingly assembled.

組裝時也很複雜費時。

Aerospace companies are now using 3D printing,

航太公司現在採用 3D 列印技術，

which allows them to turn those 20 different parts

這類技術可以把 20 種不同的零件

into just one.

變為一種。

The results?

結果呢？

40 percent more productivity,

生產力提高了百分之四十，

40 percent more output produced, 40 percent more growth

出產量提高了百分之四十，

此工業的經濟增長了百分之四十。

for this specific industry.

But actually, the most exciting part of this new manufacturing revolution

但事實上，這次新工業革命 最激動人心的地方，

goes much beyond productivity.

遠不止生產效率的提高。

It's about producing better, smarter products.

還有生產品質更優良、 更為精細的產品。

It's about scale customization.

還有大規模客製。

Imagine a world where you can buy the exact products you want

想像一下，你可以買到 符合你所有需求的產品。

with the functionalities you need,

它有著你所需的功能，

with the design you want,

有你想要的設計，

with the same cost and lead time

但卻和大規模生產出的產品

as a product that's been mass produced,

在價位與訂貨交付時間上相差無幾，

like your car, or your clothes or your cell phone.

你可以買到為你客製的車、 衣服，甚至是手機。

The new manufacturing revolution makes it possible.

這次新工業革命讓這一切變得可能。

Advanced robots can be programmed

我們可以通過對高級機器人程控，

in order to perform any product configuration

去完成任何產品配置，

without any setup time or ramp up.

並無備整時間、增產。

3D printers instantaneously produce any customized design.

3D 列印機可以即刻生產 任何客製的設計品。

We are now able to produce a batch of one product, your product,

我們現在可以生產一批 僅屬於你的產品，

at the same cost and lead time as a batch of many.

跟生產很多批所需的 成本及訂貨交付時間一樣。

Those are only a few examples of the manufacturing revolution at play.

這些僅僅是當下 工業革命的幾個例子。

Not only will manufacturing become more productive,

不僅生產率更高，

it will also become more flexible,

同時製造業還變得更具彈性。

and those were exactly the elements of growth that we are missing.

而這些恰恰是我們缺少的增長要素。

But actually, there are even some bigger implications

但實際上，傳統製造業重回聚光燈下

for all of us when manufacturing will find its way back into the limelight.

對我們所有人而言 還有更深層次的意義。

It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.

它會帶來大型的宏觀經濟轉變。

First, our factories will be relocated into our home markets.

首先，我們的工廠將會遷入國內市場，

In the world of scale customization,

在大規模訂製的情況下，

consumer proximity is the new norm.

小微客戶將會變成新的模式。

Then, our factories will be smaller, agile.

第二，我們的工廠 會變得更小、更靈活，

Scale does not matter anymore, flexibility does.

批量化不再重要，彈性將取而代之。

They will be operating on a multi-product, made-to-order basis.

工廠將會基於多種產品 及訂製的基礎上生產，

The change will be drastic.

這將是個劇變。

Globalization will enter a new era.

全球化將進入一個新紀元。

The East-to-West trade flows

由東至西的貿易流動，

will be replaced by regional trade flows.

將會被本土地區化的貿易往來取代。

East for East, West for West.

東部供給東部，西部供給西部。

When you think about that,

再回首看看過去的生產模式，

the old model was pretty much insane.

就會發現它有些瘋狂。

Piling up stocks, making products travel the whole world

囤積存貨，讓產品繞世界一圈

before they reach their end consumers.

才達到客戶手上。

The new model, producing just next to the consumer market,

這種在客戶市場附近 製造的新生產模式，

will be much cleaner, much better for our environment.

將會更為清潔，對環境影響更小。

In mature economies, manufacturing will be back home,

在成熟經濟裡，製造業將回歸本土。

creating more employment,

這將創造就業機會，

more productivity and more growth.

提高生產率，推動經濟發展。

Good news, isn't it?

好消息，不是嗎？

But here's the thing with growth --

但問題在於，

it does not come automatically.

經濟發展並不是自然而然就有了的。

Mature economies will have to seize it.

成熟經濟體需要抓住經濟發展機遇。

We'll have to massively re-train our workforce.

我們必須對勞動力 進行大規模的再培訓。

In most countries, like in my country, France,

在絶大多數國家， 比如我的國家法國，

we've told our children that manufacturing had no future.

我們這樣告訴孩子們， 製造業是沒有前途的。

That it was something happening far away.

並且很早以前就是這樣了，

We need to reverse that

我們必須改變這一觀念。

and teach manufacturing again at university.

在大學裡重新教授製造業課程，

Only the countries that will boldly transform

只有完成大膽創新的國家，

will be able to seize this growth.

才能夠抓住這次經濟發展機會。

It's also a chance for developing economies.

同時，這對發展中國家而言 也是一個機遇。

Of course China and other emerging economies

中國和其他發展中國家，

won't be the factory of the world anymore.

不再會是世界工廠。

Actually, it was not a sustainable model in the long term,

實際上，從長期來看 這也不是一個永續發展模式，

as those countries are becoming richer.

因為這些國家變得更為富有。

Last year, it was already as expensive to produce in Brazil

去年，巴西的生產成本

as to produce in France.

已經與法國持平。

By 2018, manufacturing costs in China will be on par with the US.

到 2018 年，

中國的生產成本也將追上美國。

The new manufacturing revolution

第四次工業革命

will accelerate the transition of those emerging economies

將會推動發展中國家，

towards a model driven by domestic consumption.

向內生消費導向的經濟體轉變。

And this is good,

這是個好消息，

because this is where growth will be created.

因為這將是未來經濟增長的起點。

In the next five years,

未來五年，

the next billion consumers in China will inject more growth in our economies

中國的十億人消費力市場， 將會與歐洲五大市場加起來

than the top five European markets together.

為我們的經濟發展注入更多動力。

This fourth manufacturing revolution is a chance for all of us.

對我們所有人而言， 第四次工業革命都是一次機遇。

If we play it right,

如果我們正確運用它，

we'll see sustainable growth in all of our economies.

我們將會為我們的經濟 帶來持續發展。

This means more wealth distributed to all of us

這意味著分給我們 所有人的財富會增加，

and a better future for our children.

我們的孩子也將擁有 一個更好的未來。

Thank you.

謝謝！

(Applause)

（掌聲）