The next manufacturing revolution is here | Olivier Scalabre

499,118 views ・ 2016-09-13

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:13
Guys, we have an issue.
0
13734
2536
00:16
(Laughter)
1
16294
1098
00:17
Growth is fading away, and it's a big deal.
2
17416
2794
00:21
Our global economy stops growing.
3
21136
2156
00:24
And it's not new.
4
24018
1399
00:25
Growth has actually declined for the last 50 years.
5
25441
3311
00:29
If we continue like this, we need to learn
6
29213
2540
00:31
how to live in a world with no growth in the next decade.
7
31777
3725
00:36
This is scary because when the economy doesn't grow,
8
36249
3477
00:39
our children don't get better lives.
9
39750
1960
00:42
What's even scarier is that when the pie does not grow,
10
42535
3413
00:45
each of us get a smaller piece.
11
45972
1556
00:47
We're then ready to fight for a bigger one.
12
47552
2115
00:50
This creates tensions and serious conflicts.
13
50070
3140
00:53
Growth matters a lot.
14
53585
1938
00:57
If we look at the history of growth,
15
57350
2288
00:59
times of big growth have always been fueled
16
59662
2512
01:02
by big manufacturing revolutions.
17
62198
2025
01:04
It happened three times, every 50-60 years.
18
64818
2906
01:08
The steam engine in the middle of the 19th century,
19
68419
4024
01:12
the mass-production model in the beginning of the 20th century --
20
72467
3761
01:16
thanks, Mr. Ford.
21
76252
1319
01:18
And the first automation wave in the 1970s.
22
78384
2984
01:22
Why did these manufacturing revolutions
23
82157
2196
01:24
create huge growth in our economies?
24
84377
2225
01:27
Because they have injected huge productivity improvement.
25
87677
3114
01:31
It's rather simple:
26
91591
1150
01:33
in order to grow, you need to be producing more,
27
93080
3235
01:36
putting more into our economy.
28
96339
1968
01:39
This means either more labor or more capital or more productivity.
29
99241
5612
01:44
Each time, productivity has been the growth lever.
30
104877
3015
01:49
I'm here today to tell you
31
109744
2743
01:52
that we are on the verge of another huge change,
32
112511
3710
01:56
and that this change, surprisingly enough,
33
116245
3462
01:59
is going to come from manufacturing, again.
34
119731
2670
02:03
It will get us out of our growth slump
35
123394
3108
02:06
and it will change radically the way globalization has been shaped
36
126526
3844
02:10
over the last decade.
37
130394
1241
02:11
I'm here to tell you about the amazing fourth manufacturing revolution
38
131935
5271
02:17
that is currently underway.
39
137230
1412
02:19
It's not as if we've done nothing with manufacturing
40
139213
2461
02:21
since the last revolution.
41
141698
1289
02:23
Actually, we've made some pretty lame attempts
42
143011
2415
02:25
to try to revitalize it.
43
145450
1601
02:27
But none of them have been the big overhaul
44
147075
2977
02:30
we really need to get us growing again.
45
150076
1889
02:32
For example, we've tried to relocate our factories offshore
46
152384
4594
02:37
in order to reduce cost and take advantage of cheap labor.
47
157002
3023
02:41
Not only did this not inspire productivity,
48
161048
3583
02:44
but it only saved money for a short period of time,
49
164655
2472
02:47
because cheap labor didn't stay cheap for long.
50
167151
2539
02:50
Then, we've tried to make our factories larger
51
170455
3922
02:54
and we specialized them by product.
52
174401
1889
02:57
The idea was that we can make a lot of one product
53
177318
3313
03:00
and stockpile it to be sold with demand.
54
180655
2382
03:04
This did help productivity for a while.
55
184022
2579
03:06
But it introduced a lot of rigidities in our supply chain.
56
186625
3921
03:11
Let's take fashion retail.
57
191432
1396
03:13
Traditional clothing companies
58
193232
2118
03:15
have built offshore, global, rigid supply chains.
59
195374
4647
03:20
When fast-fashion competitors like Zara
60
200787
2751
03:23
started replenishing their stocks faster
61
203562
2511
03:26
from two collections a year to one collection a month,
62
206097
3679
03:29
none of them have been able to keep up with the pace.
63
209800
2544
03:32
Most of them are in great difficulties today.
64
212368
2710
03:36
Yet, with all of their shortcomings,
65
216008
3204
03:39
those are the factories we know today.
66
219236
1945
03:41
When you open the doors,
67
221539
1618
03:43
they look the same as they did 50 years ago.
68
223181
2906
03:46
We've just changed the location, the size, the way they operate.
69
226396
5039
03:52
Can you name anything else that looks the same
70
232273
2344
03:54
as it did 50 years ago?
71
234641
1555
03:56
It's crazy.
72
236220
1155
03:57
We've made all the tweaks to the model that we could,
73
237836
3032
04:00
and now we hit its limits.
74
240892
2998
04:05
After all of our attempts to fix the manufacturing model failed,
75
245032
4837
04:09
we thought growth could come from elsewhere.
76
249893
2805
04:12
We turned to the tech sector --
77
252722
2040
04:14
there's been quite a lot of innovations there.
78
254786
2368
04:17
Just to name one: the Internet.
79
257178
1795
04:19
We hoped it could produce growth.
80
259906
1805
04:21
And indeed, it changed our lives.
81
261735
2492
04:24
It made big waves in the media, the service, the entertainment spaces.
82
264251
4445
04:29
But it hasn't done much for productivity.
83
269081
2076
04:32
Actually, what's surprising is that productivity is on the decline
84
272011
4296
04:36
despite all of those innovation efforts.
85
276331
2529
04:39
Imagine that -- sitting at work, scrolling through Facebook,
86
279523
3758
04:43
watching videos on YouTube has made us less productive.
87
283305
3804
04:47
Weird.
88
287133
1151
04:48
(Laughter)
89
288308
1584
04:49
This is why we are not growing.
90
289916
1781
04:52
We failed at reinventing the manufacturing space,
91
292580
3276
04:55
and large technological innovations have played away from it.
92
295880
3950
05:01
But what if we could combine those forces?
93
301184
2274
05:03
What if the existing manufacturing and large technological innovation
94
303927
4868
05:08
came together to create the next big manufacturing reinvention.
95
308819
4563
05:13
Bingo!
96
313406
1258
05:14
This is the fourth manufacturing revolution,
97
314688
2483
05:17
and it's happening right now.
98
317195
1664
05:19
Major technologies are entering the manufacturing space,
99
319355
3266
05:22
big time.
100
322645
1150
05:24
They will boost industrial productivity by more than a third.
101
324316
3096
05:28
This is massive, and it will do a lot in creating growth.
102
328217
3726
05:33
Let me tell you about some of them.
103
333286
1806
05:36
Have you already met advanced manufacturing robots?
104
336091
2899
05:39
They are the size of humans,
105
339583
2095
05:41
they actually collaborate with them,
106
341702
2021
05:43
and they can be programmed
107
343747
1579
05:45
in order to perform complex, non-repetitive tasks.
108
345350
2912
05:49
Today in our factories, only 8 percent of the tasks are automated.
109
349628
4938
05:54
The less complex, the more repetitive ones.
110
354590
3265
05:58
It will be 25 percent in 10 years.
111
358551
2877
06:01
It means that by 2025,
112
361452
2813
06:04
advanced robots will complement workers
113
364289
2564
06:06
to be, together, 20 percent more productive,
114
366877
2843
06:09
to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,
115
369744
2001
06:11
to achieve 20 percent additional growth.
116
371769
2117
06:15
This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.
117
375118
2924
06:18
These robots are working for us right now.
118
378425
2577
06:21
Last year in the US, they helped Amazon prepare and ship all the products
119
381993
5546
06:27
required for Cyber Monday,
120
387563
2094
06:29
the annual peak of online retail.
121
389681
2022
06:32
Last year in the US,
122
392401
1624
06:34
it was the biggest online shopping day of the year and of history.
123
394049
5898
06:40
Consumers spent 3 billion dollars on electronics that day.
124
400626
3626
06:44
That's real economic growth.
125
404276
2515
06:47
Then there's additive manufacturing, 3D printing.
126
407502
4048
06:51
3D printing has already improved plastic manufacturing
127
411574
4008
06:55
and it's now making its way through metal.
128
415606
2984
06:58
Those are not small industries.
129
418614
1585
07:00
Plastic and metals represent 25 percent
130
420875
3016
07:03
of global manufacturing production.
131
423915
2000
07:06
Let's take a real example.
132
426717
1549
07:09
In the aerospace industry,
133
429005
2938
07:11
fuel nozzles are some of the most complex parts to manufacture,
134
431967
4493
07:16
for one reason:
135
436484
1298
07:17
they are made up of 20 different parts
136
437806
3189
07:21
that need to be separately produced
137
441019
2811
07:23
and then painstakingly assembled.
138
443854
2625
07:27
Aerospace companies are now using 3D printing,
139
447301
3126
07:30
which allows them to turn those 20 different parts
140
450451
3064
07:33
into just one.
141
453539
1310
07:35
The results?
142
455368
1150
07:36
40 percent more productivity,
143
456909
2336
07:39
40 percent more output produced, 40 percent more growth
144
459269
3267
07:42
for this specific industry.
145
462560
1545
07:45
But actually, the most exciting part of this new manufacturing revolution
146
465283
6150
07:51
goes much beyond productivity.
147
471457
2405
07:54
It's about producing better, smarter products.
148
474692
3571
07:58
It's about scale customization.
149
478287
2414
08:01
Imagine a world where you can buy the exact products you want
150
481099
4735
08:05
with the functionalities you need,
151
485858
2210
08:08
with the design you want,
152
488092
1948
08:10
with the same cost and lead time
153
490064
1586
08:11
as a product that's been mass produced,
154
491674
1882
08:13
like your car, or your clothes or your cell phone.
155
493580
2867
08:17
The new manufacturing revolution makes it possible.
156
497113
2677
08:20
Advanced robots can be programmed
157
500577
2821
08:23
in order to perform any product configuration
158
503422
3119
08:26
without any setup time or ramp up.
159
506565
2647
08:29
3D printers instantaneously produce any customized design.
160
509791
5860
08:35
We are now able to produce a batch of one product, your product,
161
515675
5669
08:41
at the same cost and lead time as a batch of many.
162
521368
3234
08:45
Those are only a few examples of the manufacturing revolution at play.
163
525629
3807
08:50
Not only will manufacturing become more productive,
164
530468
4087
08:54
it will also become more flexible,
165
534579
2935
08:57
and those were exactly the elements of growth that we are missing.
166
537538
4531
09:03
But actually, there are even some bigger implications
167
543106
3618
09:06
for all of us when manufacturing will find its way back into the limelight.
168
546748
5006
09:12
It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.
169
552441
3484
09:16
First, our factories will be relocated into our home markets.
170
556683
4437
09:21
In the world of scale customization,
171
561877
2243
09:24
consumer proximity is the new norm.
172
564144
2601
09:27
Then, our factories will be smaller, agile.
173
567722
4172
09:31
Scale does not matter anymore, flexibility does.
174
571918
3109
09:35
They will be operating on a multi-product, made-to-order basis.
175
575802
3593
09:39
The change will be drastic.
176
579859
2208
09:42
Globalization will enter a new era.
177
582590
3515
09:47
The East-to-West trade flows
178
587145
2915
09:50
will be replaced by regional trade flows.
179
590084
2681
09:52
East for East, West for West.
180
592789
2305
09:55
When you think about that,
181
595687
1240
09:57
the old model was pretty much insane.
182
597884
2410
10:01
Piling up stocks, making products travel the whole world
183
601065
3751
10:04
before they reach their end consumers.
184
604840
1879
10:06
The new model, producing just next to the consumer market,
185
606743
4240
10:11
will be much cleaner, much better for our environment.
186
611007
4445
10:16
In mature economies, manufacturing will be back home,
187
616678
3785
10:20
creating more employment,
188
620487
2076
10:22
more productivity and more growth.
189
622587
2367
10:25
Good news, isn't it?
190
625930
1492
10:28
But here's the thing with growth --
191
628541
1805
10:30
it does not come automatically.
192
630370
1655
10:32
Mature economies will have to seize it.
193
632328
2127
10:35
We'll have to massively re-train our workforce.
194
635196
2906
10:38
In most countries, like in my country, France,
195
638547
2660
10:41
we've told our children that manufacturing had no future.
196
641231
3102
10:44
That it was something happening far away.
197
644357
1977
10:46
We need to reverse that
198
646358
1798
10:48
and teach manufacturing again at university.
199
648180
2396
10:51
Only the countries that will boldly transform
200
651203
3485
10:54
will be able to seize this growth.
201
654712
2022
10:58
It's also a chance for developing economies.
202
658640
2867
11:02
Of course China and other emerging economies
203
662461
3633
11:06
won't be the factory of the world anymore.
204
666118
2100
11:09
Actually, it was not a sustainable model in the long term,
205
669545
4618
11:14
as those countries are becoming richer.
206
674187
2398
11:17
Last year, it was already as expensive to produce in Brazil
207
677779
5024
11:22
as to produce in France.
208
682827
1343
11:26
By 2018, manufacturing costs in China will be on par with the US.
209
686184
5757
11:33
The new manufacturing revolution
210
693350
2251
11:35
will accelerate the transition of those emerging economies
211
695625
4780
11:40
towards a model driven by domestic consumption.
212
700429
3222
11:43
And this is good,
213
703675
1177
11:44
because this is where growth will be created.
214
704876
2357
11:47
In the next five years,
215
707915
1604
11:49
the next billion consumers in China will inject more growth in our economies
216
709543
5304
11:54
than the top five European markets together.
217
714871
2414
11:59
This fourth manufacturing revolution is a chance for all of us.
218
719944
4289
12:05
If we play it right,
219
725046
1954
12:07
we'll see sustainable growth in all of our economies.
220
727024
3390
12:10
This means more wealth distributed to all of us
221
730969
3665
12:14
and a better future for our children.
222
734658
2507
12:17
Thank you.
223
737189
1151
12:18
(Applause)
224
738374
7357
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7