The next manufacturing revolution is here | Olivier Scalabre

499,118 views ・ 2016-09-13

TED


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Prevoditelj: Sandra Sabic Recezent: Ivan Stamenković
00:13
Guys, we have an issue.
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Ljudi, imamo problem.
00:16
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:17
Growth is fading away, and it's a big deal.
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Razvoj usporava, i to je bitno.
00:21
Our global economy stops growing.
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Naša globalna ekonomija prestaje rasti.
00:24
And it's not new.
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I to nije novost.
00:25
Growth has actually declined for the last 50 years.
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Razvoj zapravo opada zadnjih 50 godina.
00:29
If we continue like this, we need to learn
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Ako nastavimo ovako, moramo naučiti
00:31
how to live in a world with no growth in the next decade.
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kako živjeti u svijetu bez razvoja tijekom sljedećeg desetljeća.
00:36
This is scary because when the economy doesn't grow,
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Ovo je zastrašujuće jer, kada ekonomija ne raste,
00:39
our children don't get better lives.
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naša djeca nemaju bolji život.
00:42
What's even scarier is that when the pie does not grow,
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Još je strašnije to što, ukoliko kolač ne raste,
00:45
each of us get a smaller piece.
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svatko od nas dobija manji komad
00:47
We're then ready to fight for a bigger one.
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Tada smo se spremni boriti za veći.
00:50
This creates tensions and serious conflicts.
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To uzrokuje napetosti i ozbiljne sukobe.
00:53
Growth matters a lot.
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Rast je jako bitan.
00:57
If we look at the history of growth,
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Ako pogledamo povijest rasta,
00:59
times of big growth have always been fueled
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razdoblja velikog rasta su uvijek bila potaknuta
01:02
by big manufacturing revolutions.
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velikim proizvodnim revolucijama.
01:04
It happened three times, every 50-60 years.
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Dogodilo se tri puta, svakih 50-60 godina.
01:08
The steam engine in the middle of the 19th century,
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Parni stroj sredinom 19. stoljeća,
01:12
the mass-production model in the beginning of the 20th century --
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model masovne proizvodnje početkom 20. stoljeća --
01:16
thanks, Mr. Ford.
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hvala, gospodine Ford,
01:18
And the first automation wave in the 1970s.
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I prvi automatizacijski val u 1970-ima.
01:22
Why did these manufacturing revolutions
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Zašto su ove revolucije u proizvodnji
01:24
create huge growth in our economies?
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uzrokovale ogroman rast naših ekonomija?
01:27
Because they have injected huge productivity improvement.
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Zato što su ubacile ogromno poboljšanje proizvodnosti.
01:31
It's rather simple:
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Prilično je jednostavno:
01:33
in order to grow, you need to be producing more,
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da bi došlo do rasta, mora se više proizvoditi,
01:36
putting more into our economy.
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dodavati više u ekonomiju.
01:39
This means either more labor or more capital or more productivity.
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To znači ili više rada ili više kapitala ili više proizvodnosti.
01:44
Each time, productivity has been the growth lever.
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Svaki puta, proizvodnost je bila poluga rasta.
01:49
I'm here today to tell you
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Ja sam ovdje danas da vam kažem
01:52
that we are on the verge of another huge change,
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da smo na rubu još jedne velike promjene,
01:56
and that this change, surprisingly enough,
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koja, za čudo,
01:59
is going to come from manufacturing, again.
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opet dolazi iz proizvodnje.
02:03
It will get us out of our growth slump
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Ona će nas izvesti iz krize rasta
02:06
and it will change radically the way globalization has been shaped
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i radikalno promijeniti način na koji je globalizacija oblikovana.
02:10
over the last decade.
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tijekom zadnjeg desetljeća.
02:11
I'm here to tell you about the amazing fourth manufacturing revolution
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Ovdje sam da vam ispričam o zapanjujućoj četvrtoj proizvodnoj revoluciji
02:17
that is currently underway.
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koja je u tijeku.
02:19
It's not as if we've done nothing with manufacturing
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Nije da smo završili sa proizvodnjom
02:21
since the last revolution.
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od zadnje revolucije.
02:23
Actually, we've made some pretty lame attempts
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Zapravo, već smo imali neke jadne pokušaje
02:25
to try to revitalize it.
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da ju oživimo.
02:27
But none of them have been the big overhaul
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Ali niti jedan nije bio veliki remont
02:30
we really need to get us growing again.
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potreban da bi opet rasli.
02:32
For example, we've tried to relocate our factories offshore
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Npr., pokušali smo ih premjestiti offshore
02:37
in order to reduce cost and take advantage of cheap labor.
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kako bi smanjili troškove i iskoristili jeftini rad
02:41
Not only did this not inspire productivity,
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Ne samo da ovo nije dovelo do proizvodnosti.
02:44
but it only saved money for a short period of time,
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već je samo kratkoročno uštedjelo novac,
02:47
because cheap labor didn't stay cheap for long.
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jer jeftini rad nije ostao jeftinim za dugo.
02:50
Then, we've tried to make our factories larger
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Nakon toga, pokušali smo sa većim tvornicama
02:54
and we specialized them by product.
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I specijalizacijom proizvoda.
02:57
The idea was that we can make a lot of one product
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Ideja je bila da možemo dobiti puno jedne vrste prozvoda
03:00
and stockpile it to be sold with demand.
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i imati zalihu za prodati sa potražnjom.
03:04
This did help productivity for a while.
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To je pomoglo proizvodnosti, neko vrijeme.
03:06
But it introduced a lot of rigidities in our supply chain.
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Ali je uvelo puno rigidnosti u opskrbni lanac.
03:11
Let's take fashion retail.
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Uznimo modnu maloprodaju kao primjer.
03:13
Traditional clothing companies
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Tradicionalne tvrtke koje se bave odjećom
03:15
have built offshore, global, rigid supply chains.
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su izgradile offshore, globalne, rigidne lance opskrbe.
03:20
When fast-fashion competitors like Zara
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Kada su tvrtke brze mode, poput Zare
03:23
started replenishing their stocks faster
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počele nadomjestati svoje zalihe brže
03:26
from two collections a year to one collection a month,
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od dvije kolekcije u godini do jedne u mjesecu,
03:29
none of them have been able to keep up with the pace.
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nitko nije mogao držati taj tempo.
03:32
Most of them are in great difficulties today.
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Većina njih danas su u velikim problemima.
03:36
Yet, with all of their shortcomings,
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No, unatoč svim nedostatcima,
03:39
those are the factories we know today.
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to su tvornice kakve znamo danas.
03:41
When you open the doors,
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Kada se otvore vrata,
03:43
they look the same as they did 50 years ago.
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izgledaju isto kao prije 50 godina.
03:46
We've just changed the location, the size, the way they operate.
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Samo smo promijenili položaj, veličinu i način poslovanja.
03:52
Can you name anything else that looks the same
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Možete li navesti još nešto što izgleda isto
03:54
as it did 50 years ago?
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kao i prije 50 godina?
03:56
It's crazy.
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To je suludo.
03:57
We've made all the tweaks to the model that we could,
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Prilagodili smo model koliko smo mogli,
04:00
and now we hit its limits.
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ali sada smo došli do granice.
04:05
After all of our attempts to fix the manufacturing model failed,
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Nakon svih propalih pokušaja popravka proizvodnog modela,
04:09
we thought growth could come from elsewhere.
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misilili smo da će razvoj doći od negdje drugdje.
04:12
We turned to the tech sector --
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Okrenuli smo se tehnološkom području --
04:14
there's been quite a lot of innovations there.
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tamo je bilo poprilično puno inovacija.
04:17
Just to name one: the Internet.
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Samo da imenujem jednu: internet.
04:19
We hoped it could produce growth.
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Nadali smo se da će dovesta do rasta.
04:21
And indeed, it changed our lives.
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I stvarno, promijenio nam je živote.
04:24
It made big waves in the media, the service, the entertainment spaces.
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Napravio je velike valove u medijima, usluzi, zabavi
04:29
But it hasn't done much for productivity.
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Ali nije napravio puno za proizvodnost.
04:32
Actually, what's surprising is that productivity is on the decline
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Zapravo, iznenađujuće je da proizvodnost pada
04:36
despite all of those innovation efforts.
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unatoč svim ovim inovacijskim naporima.
04:39
Imagine that -- sitting at work, scrolling through Facebook,
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Zamislite, pregledavanje Facebooka na poslu,
04:43
watching videos on YouTube has made us less productive.
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gledanje Youtube videa nas je napravilo manje produktivnim.
04:47
Weird.
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Čudno.
04:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:49
This is why we are not growing.
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Ovo je zašto nema rasta.
04:52
We failed at reinventing the manufacturing space,
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Nismo uspjeli obnoviti prostor proizvodnje,
04:55
and large technological innovations have played away from it.
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i velike tehnološke inovacije su se odigrale mimo njega.
05:01
But what if we could combine those forces?
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Ali što ako možemo ujediniti te sile?
05:03
What if the existing manufacturing and large technological innovation
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Što ako se postojeća proizvodnja i velika tehnološka inovacija
05:08
came together to create the next big manufacturing reinvention.
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spoje kako bi stvorile novu proizvodnju?
05:13
Bingo!
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Pogodak!
05:14
This is the fourth manufacturing revolution,
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Ovo je četvrta revolucija u proizvodnji
05:17
and it's happening right now.
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i događa se sada.
05:19
Major technologies are entering the manufacturing space,
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Značajne tehnologije ulaze u proizvodni prostor,
05:22
big time.
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i to naveliko.
05:24
They will boost industrial productivity by more than a third.
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To će unaprijediti industrijsku proizvodnost za više od trećine
05:28
This is massive, and it will do a lot in creating growth.
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Ovo je značajno, i dovesti će do rasta.
05:33
Let me tell you about some of them.
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Dopustite da vam spomenem nekoliko.
05:36
Have you already met advanced manufacturing robots?
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Jeste li se već susreli sa naprednim robotima u proizvodnji?
05:39
They are the size of humans,
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Veliki su kao ljudi,
05:41
they actually collaborate with them,
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zapravo surađuju sa njma.
05:43
and they can be programmed
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mogu se programirati
05:45
in order to perform complex, non-repetitive tasks.
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kako bi izveli složene zadatke koje se ne ponavljaju.
05:49
Today in our factories, only 8 percent of the tasks are automated.
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U današnjim tvornicama, samo 8% zadataka je automatizirano.
05:54
The less complex, the more repetitive ones.
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Manje složeni i oni koji se više ponavljaju.
05:58
It will be 25 percent in 10 years.
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To će biti 25% za 10 godina.
06:01
It means that by 2025,
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Znači, do 2025.,
06:04
advanced robots will complement workers
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napredni roboti će nadopunjavati radnike
06:06
to be, together, 20 percent more productive,
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da bi, zajedno, bili 20% produktivniji,
06:09
to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,
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da bi imali 20% veći proizvodni output,
06:11
to achieve 20 percent additional growth.
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da bi postigli 20-postotni dodatni rast.
06:15
This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.
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Ovo nije neka zamišljena ideja iz budućnosti.
06:18
These robots are working for us right now.
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Ti roboti rade za nas upravo sada.
06:21
Last year in the US, they helped Amazon prepare and ship all the products
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Prošle godine u SAD-u, pomogli su Amazonu da pripremi i pošalje sve proizvode
06:27
required for Cyber Monday,
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za Cyber Monday,
06:29
the annual peak of online retail.
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godišnji vrhunac online prodaje.
06:32
Last year in the US,
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Prošle godine u SAD-u
06:34
it was the biggest online shopping day of the year and of history.
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to je bio najveći dan u godini i povijesti za online kupovinu
06:40
Consumers spent 3 billion dollars on electronics that day.
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Potrošači su potrošili 3 milijarde dolara na elektroniku.
06:44
That's real economic growth.
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To je stvarni ekonomski rast.
06:47
Then there's additive manufacturing, 3D printing.
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A tu je i aditivna proizvodnja, 3D printanje.
06:51
3D printing has already improved plastic manufacturing
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3D printanje je već unaprijedilo proizvodnju plastike.
06:55
and it's now making its way through metal.
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A sada to isto radi sa metalom.
06:58
Those are not small industries.
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To nisu zanemarive industrije.
07:00
Plastic and metals represent 25 percent
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Plastika i metal predstavljaju 25 posto
07:03
of global manufacturing production.
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svjetskog procesa proizvodnje.
07:06
Let's take a real example.
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Uzmimo primjer iz života.
07:09
In the aerospace industry,
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Unutar zračne industrije,
07:11
fuel nozzles are some of the most complex parts to manufacture,
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mlaznice za gorivo su među složenijim dijelovima za proizvesti
07:16
for one reason:
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iz jednog razloga:
07:17
they are made up of 20 different parts
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sastoje se od dvadeset različitih dijelova
07:21
that need to be separately produced
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koji se moraju odvojeno proizvesti
07:23
and then painstakingly assembled.
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a onda pomno sastaviti.
07:27
Aerospace companies are now using 3D printing,
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Zračne kompanije sada koriste 3D printanje
07:30
which allows them to turn those 20 different parts
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pomoću kojega mogu tih 20 različitih dijelova
07:33
into just one.
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zamijeniti za samo jedan.
07:35
The results?
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Rezultati?
07:36
40 percent more productivity,
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Produktivnost je viša za 40 posto.
07:39
40 percent more output produced, 40 percent more growth
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40 posto više outputa, 40 posto viša stopa rasta
07:42
for this specific industry.
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za ovu industriju.
07:45
But actually, the most exciting part of this new manufacturing revolution
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Ali, najuzbudljiviji dio ove nove proizvodne revolucije
07:51
goes much beyond productivity.
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leži izvan same proizvodnosti.
07:54
It's about producing better, smarter products.
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Riječ je o proizvodnji boljih, pametnijih proizvoda.
07:58
It's about scale customization.
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Riječ je o mogućnosti prilagodbe.
08:01
Imagine a world where you can buy the exact products you want
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Zamislite svijet u kojem možete kupiti proizvod kakkvog baš želite
08:05
with the functionalities you need,
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sa funkcionalnostima koje vam trebaju,
08:08
with the design you want,
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dizajnom kakvog želite
08:10
with the same cost and lead time
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sa istom cijenom i rokom
08:11
as a product that's been mass produced,
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koji ima proizvod koji je masovno proizveden.
08:13
like your car, or your clothes or your cell phone.
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kao što je vaš auto, odjeća ili mobilni telefon.
08:17
The new manufacturing revolution makes it possible.
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Nova revolucija u proizvodnji to čini mogućim.
08:20
Advanced robots can be programmed
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Napredni roboti mogu biti programirani
08:23
in order to perform any product configuration
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kako bi izveli bilo koju konfiguraciju proizvoda
08:26
without any setup time or ramp up.
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bez čekanja na pripremu ili početak rada.
08:29
3D printers instantaneously produce any customized design.
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3D printeri odmah proizvode svaki dizajn prilagođen korisniku.
08:35
We are now able to produce a batch of one product, your product,
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Sada možemo proizvesti jednu grupu proizvoda, vašeg proizvoda
08:41
at the same cost and lead time as a batch of many.
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po istoj cijeni i unutar istog intervala kao grupu različitih.
08:45
Those are only a few examples of the manufacturing revolution at play.
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To je samo par primjera revolucije u proizvodnji koja je na djelu.
08:50
Not only will manufacturing become more productive,
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Ne samo da će prozivodnja postati produktivnija,
08:54
it will also become more flexible,
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nego i fleksibilnija,
08:57
and those were exactly the elements of growth that we are missing.
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a upravo to su elementi rasta koji su nedostajali.
09:03
But actually, there are even some bigger implications
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Ali postoje i značajnije posljedice.
09:06
for all of us when manufacturing will find its way back into the limelight.
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za sve nas, kada se proizvodnja vrati u centar pažnje
09:12
It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.
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to će stvoriti veliki makroekonomski pomak.
09:16
First, our factories will be relocated into our home markets.
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Prvo, tvornice će biti premještene na domaća tržišta.
09:21
In the world of scale customization,
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U svijetu prilagođenosti korisniku
09:24
consumer proximity is the new norm.
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blizina potrošača je novo pravilo.
09:27
Then, our factories will be smaller, agile.
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Nakon toga, naše tvornice će biti manje, agilne.
09:31
Scale does not matter anymore, flexibility does.
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Opseg više nije bitan, bitna je fleksibilnost.
09:35
They will be operating on a multi-product, made-to-order basis.
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Raditi će na bazi izrađenog po mjeri multi proizvoda.
09:39
The change will be drastic.
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Promjena će biti korjenita.
09:42
Globalization will enter a new era.
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Globalizacija će ući u novo doba.
09:47
The East-to-West trade flows
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Istok prema Zapadu tijek trgovine
09:50
will be replaced by regional trade flows.
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biti će zamijenjen regionalnim tijekom trgovine.
09:52
East for East, West for West.
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Istok za Istok, Zapad za Zapad.
09:55
When you think about that,
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Kada malo razmislite,
09:57
the old model was pretty much insane.
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stari model je sulud.
10:01
Piling up stocks, making products travel the whole world
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Gomilanje zaliha, izrada proizvoda koji putuju preko cijelog svijeta
10:04
before they reach their end consumers.
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prije nego dosegnu krajnjeg korisnika
10:06
The new model, producing just next to the consumer market,
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U novom modelu, proizvodnja odmah pored potrošačkog tržišta
10:11
will be much cleaner, much better for our environment.
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biti će puno čišća, puno bolja za naš okoliš.
10:16
In mature economies, manufacturing will be back home,
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U zrelim ekonomijama, proizvodnja će se vratiti kući,
10:20
creating more employment,
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stvarajući nova zaposlenja,
10:22
more productivity and more growth.
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više proizvodnosti i više rasta.
10:25
Good news, isn't it?
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Dobre vijesti, zar ne?
10:28
But here's the thing with growth --
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Ali ima jedna kvaka sa rastom - -
10:30
it does not come automatically.
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ne dolazi sam po sebi.
10:32
Mature economies will have to seize it.
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Zrele ekonomije ga moraju dosegnuti.
10:35
We'll have to massively re-train our workforce.
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Morati ćemo znatno preškolovati svoju radnu snagu.
10:38
In most countries, like in my country, France,
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U većini zemalja, kao u mojoj zemlji, Francuskoj,
10:41
we've told our children that manufacturing had no future.
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rekli smo svojoj djeci da proizvodnja nema budućnosti.
10:44
That it was something happening far away.
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Da je to nešto što se događa daleko.
10:46
We need to reverse that
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Sada to moramo ispraviti
10:48
and teach manufacturing again at university.
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i opet podučavati proizvodnju na sveučilištima.
10:51
Only the countries that will boldly transform
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Samo će zemlje koje se hrabro preoblikuju
10:54
will be able to seize this growth.
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moći uhvatiti ovaj rast.
10:58
It's also a chance for developing economies.
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To je ujedno i šansa za nerazvijene zemlje.
11:02
Of course China and other emerging economies
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Naravno da Kina i druge ekonomije u nastajanju
11:06
won't be the factory of the world anymore.
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više neće biti tvornicom svijeta.
11:09
Actually, it was not a sustainable model in the long term,
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Dugoročno, to nije bio održiv model,
11:14
as those countries are becoming richer.
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kako te zemlje postaju sve bogatije.
11:17
Last year, it was already as expensive to produce in Brazil
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Prošle godine, bilo je skoro jednako skupo proizvoditi u Brazilu
11:22
as to produce in France.
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kao u Francuskoj.
11:26
By 2018, manufacturing costs in China will be on par with the US.
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Do 2018, troškovi proizvodnje u Kini bit će jednaki onima u SAD-u.
11:33
The new manufacturing revolution
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Nova revolucija proizvodnje
11:35
will accelerate the transition of those emerging economies
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će ubrzati prijelaz tih ekonomija u nastajanju
11:40
towards a model driven by domestic consumption.
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prema modelu domaće potrošnje.
11:43
And this is good,
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I to je dobro,
11:44
because this is where growth will be created.
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jer će stvoriti rast.
11:47
In the next five years,
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U sljedećih pet godina,
11:49
the next billion consumers in China will inject more growth in our economies
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sljedećih milijarda potrošača u Kini će ubrizgati više rasta u naše ekonomije
11:54
than the top five European markets together.
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nego top 5 euro-tržišta zajedno.
11:59
This fourth manufacturing revolution is a chance for all of us.
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Četvrta proizvodna revolucija je prilika za sve nas.
12:05
If we play it right,
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Ako to odigramo kako treba,
12:07
we'll see sustainable growth in all of our economies.
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vidjeti ćemo održiv rast u svim našim ekonomijama.
12:10
This means more wealth distributed to all of us
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To znači više blagostanja, razdijeljenog među nama
12:14
and a better future for our children.
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i bolju budućnost za našu djecu.
12:17
Thank you.
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Hvala.
12:18
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
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