Naomi Klein: Addicted to risk

90,053 views ・ 2011-01-18

TED


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翻译人员: Felix Chen 校对人员: Angelia King
00:15
I just did something I've never done before.
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我刚做了些之前从未做过的事。
00:18
I spent a week at sea on a research vessel.
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我随一艘研究船在海上呆了一个礼拜。
00:21
Now I'm not a scientist,
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我不是名科学家,
00:23
but I was accompanying a remarkable scientific team
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但我与一个来自南佛罗里达大学的
00:26
from the University of South Florida
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杰出的科学团队一起
00:28
who have been tracking the travels of BP's oil
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在墨西哥湾工作,这个团队在
00:31
in the Gulf of Mexico.
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跟踪英国石油公司泄漏石油的流向。
00:33
This is the boat we were on, by the way.
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顺便提一下,这是我们乘坐的船。
00:36
The scientists I was with
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与我一起的科学家们
00:38
were not studying the effect of the oil and dispersants on the big stuff --
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不是在研究在大家伙上的石油和化油剂的影响--
00:41
the birds, the turtles,
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比如对鸟类、海龟、
00:43
the dolphins, the glamorous stuff.
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海豚和迷人风景的影响。
00:45
They're looking at the really little stuff
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他们在找些很小的东西
00:48
that gets eaten by the slightly less little stuff
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这些小东西被更小的东西吃掉
00:51
that eventually gets eaten by the big stuff.
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并最终被大家伙所吞食。
00:54
And what they're finding
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他们所研究的是
00:56
is that even trace amounts of oil and dispersants
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跟踪石油和在植物病理学上
00:59
can be highly toxic to phytoplankton,
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有高度毒性的化油剂的数量,
01:01
which is very bad news,
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这是个非常坏的消息,
01:03
because so much life depends on it.
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因为有许多的生命以此为生。
01:06
So contrary to what we heard a few months back
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因此,与我们数月之前听到的相反
01:08
about how 75 percent of that oil
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大约百分之七十五的石油
01:10
sort of magically disappeared
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神奇的消失了,
01:12
and we didn't have to worry about it,
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我们不需要再担心它了,
01:14
this disaster is still unfolding.
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但这场灾难仍然在蔓延。
01:17
It's still working its way up the food chain.
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它仍在不断向食物链上方产生影响。
01:20
Now this shouldn't come as a surprise to us.
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现在我们对这应该不会感到奇怪了。
01:23
Rachel Carson --
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雷切尔·卡森--
01:25
the godmother of modern environmentalism --
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现代环境保护论的教母--
01:27
warned us about this very thing
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早在1962年
01:29
back in 1962.
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就警告过我们。
01:31
She pointed out that the "control men" --
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她指出,控制人员--
01:33
as she called them --
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她这么称呼他们--
01:35
who carpet-bombed towns and fields
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用有毒性的杀虫剂如滴滴涕(DDT),
01:37
with toxic insecticides like DDT,
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对城镇和田野进行地毯式轰炸,
01:40
were only trying to kill the little stuff, the insects,
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仅仅是为了杀死些小东西,昆虫,
01:43
not the birds.
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不是鸟类。
01:45
But they forgot this:
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但他们忘了这些:
01:47
the fact that birds dine on grubs,
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事实上,鸟类外出觅食,
01:49
that robins eat lots of worms
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知更鸟吃掉许多的虫子
01:51
now saturated with DDT.
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而这些虫子体内充满了滴滴涕。
01:54
And so, robin eggs failed to hatch,
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因此,知更鸟的蛋无法孵化,
01:57
songbirds died en masse,
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鸣鸟也一起死去,
01:59
towns fell silent.
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城镇陷入寂静。
02:01
Thus the title "Silent Spring."
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这就是标题的来源“寂静的春天。”
02:05
I've been trying to pinpoint
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我试着找出
02:07
what keeps drawing me back to the Gulf of Mexico,
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是什么不断地把我拉回到墨西哥湾,
02:09
because I'm Canadian,
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因为我是加拿大人,
02:11
and I can draw no ancestral ties.
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我没有什么先祖情结。
02:13
And I think what it is
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并且,我认为把我拉回墨西哥湾
02:15
is I don't think we have fully come to terms
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的是我不认为我们完全达成了共识
02:18
with the meaning of this disaster,
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在这次灾难的意义上,
02:21
with what it meant to witness a hole
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在它证明了我们的世界中有一个
02:24
ripped in our world,
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快速裂开的裂缝上,
02:26
with what it meant to watch the contents of the Earth
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在它意味着数月来的每一天24小时的
02:29
gush forth on live TV,
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电视直播中
02:31
24 hours a day,
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我们观看地球上
02:33
for months.
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喷涌而出的石油。
02:35
After telling ourselves for so long
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长期以来我们告诉自己
02:38
that our tools and technology can control nature,
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我们的工具和技术能够控制自然,
02:41
suddenly we were face-to-face
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我们突然面对
02:43
with our weakness,
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我们的弱点,
02:45
with our lack of control,
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我们的缺乏控制,
02:47
as the oil burst out
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随着石油泄漏,
02:49
of every attempt to contain it --
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每次进行回收的尝试 --
02:52
"top hats," "top kills"
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带帽法,顶部封杀
02:54
and, most memorably, the "junk shot" --
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和,最难忘的,垃圾弹法 --
02:56
the bright idea
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用废旧的轮胎和旧高尔夫球
02:58
of firing old tires and golf balls
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收集泄漏孔中漏出石油
03:01
down that hole in the world.
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的聪明点子。
03:03
But even more striking
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但比起从那口油井中喷发出的力量
03:05
than the ferocious power emanating from that well
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显得更为惊人的凶猛能量
03:08
was the recklessness
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是人们的鲁莽
03:10
with which that power was unleashed --
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所释放出的
03:12
the carelessness, the lack of planning
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如粗心大意,缺少计划,
03:15
that characterized the operation
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从钻孔到清理的
03:17
from drilling to clean-up.
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操作都是如此。
03:20
If there is one thing
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如果有一件事物能让
03:22
BP's watery improv act made clear,
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英国石油公司的改进行动更明确有力,
03:25
it is that, as a culture,
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那就是,作为一种文化,
03:27
we have become far too willing to gamble
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我们变得绝不容忍用这些
03:29
with things that are precious
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珍贵的不可替代的
03:31
and irreplaceable,
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事物作为赌注 --
03:33
and to do so without a back-up plan,
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在没有后备计划,收尾策略的
03:36
without an exit strategy.
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情况下就去做。
03:38
And BP was hardly
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并且英国石油公司的这次泄油事件并不是
03:40
our first experience of this in recent years.
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今年来我们第一次经历这类事件。
03:42
Our leaders barrel into wars,
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我们的领导者卷入战争,
03:44
telling themselves happy stories
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用关于阅兵仪式和欢迎游行的
03:46
about cakewalks and welcome parades.
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美好故事来麻醉自己,
03:49
Then, it is years of deadly damage control,
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而后就持续数年的致命的灾难控制,
03:52
Frankensteins of sieges and surges
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围困和突围,
03:55
and counter-insurgencies,
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还有镇压叛乱,
03:57
and once again, no exit strategy.
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并再一次的,没有收尾策略。
04:00
Our financial wizards routinely fall victim
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我们的金融天才们一再
04:03
to similar overconfidence,
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成为过度自信的牺牲品,
04:05
convincing themselves that the latest bubble
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说服自己这最近出现的泡沫
04:07
is a new kind of market --
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是一种新型的市场 --
04:09
the kind that never goes down.
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是那种绝不会垮掉的市场。
04:11
And when it inevitably does,
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而当这一切不可避免的发生时,
04:13
the best and the brightest
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最优秀的和最聪明的人
04:15
reach for the financial equivalent of the junk shot --
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努力寻求金融中的“垃圾弹”--
04:17
in this case, throwing massive amounts
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在这种情况下,把数量巨大的
04:19
of much-needed public money
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急需的公款投入到
04:21
down a very different kind of hole.
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各种不同类型的漏洞之中。
04:24
As with BP, the hole does get plugged,
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就像英国石油公司那样,漏洞堵住了,
04:26
at least temporarily,
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至少暂时堵住了,
04:28
but not before
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但付出了
04:30
exacting a tremendous price.
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及其巨大的代价。
04:32
We have to figure out
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我们必须弄清楚
04:34
why we keep letting this happen,
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为什么我们一直让这类事情发生,
04:36
because we are in the midst
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因为我们处在一个
04:38
of what may be our highest-stakes gamble of all --
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要赌上全部身家的赌局之中:
04:41
deciding what to do, or not to do,
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关于气候变化,
04:43
about climate change.
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决定做什么,不做什么。
04:45
Now as you know,
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如各位所知,
04:47
a great deal of time is spent,
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在这个国家和世界各国
04:49
in this country and around the world,
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的气候议题上
04:51
inside the climate debate,
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我们花费了许多时间。
04:53
on the question of, "What if the IPC scientists
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关于“如果政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)的科学家全都是
04:56
are all wrong?"
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错误的话怎么办?”的问题。
04:58
Now a far more relevant question --
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现在有个更恰当的问题--
05:00
as MIT physicist Evelyn Fox Keller puts it --
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由麻州理工大学的物理学家伊芙林·福克斯·凯勒提出的--
05:03
is, "What if those scientists are right?"
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“如果这些科学家是正确的呢?”
05:08
Given the stakes, the climate crisis
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由于影响深远,气候危机
05:10
clearly calls for us to act
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无疑需要我们基于
05:12
based on the precautionary principle --
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预防原则上展开行动--
05:15
the theory that holds
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理论表明
05:17
that when human health and the environment
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当人类健康和环境
05:19
are significantly at risk
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处于极度危险
05:21
and when the potential damage is irreversible,
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并且当永久性伤害不可逆转时,
05:24
we cannot afford to wait
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我们不能等待
05:26
for perfect scientific certainty.
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确切的科学确认。
05:28
Better to err on the side of caution.
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谨慎些总是好的。
05:31
More overt, the burden of proving
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更明显的,证明一个方法
05:33
that a practice is safe
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是否是安全的责任,
05:35
should not be placed on the public that would be harmed,
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这不应由公众承担,这样是有害的,
05:38
but rather on the industry that stands to profit.
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它应该由获得利益的行业来承担。
05:42
But climate policy in the wealthy world --
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但发达国家的气候政策--
05:44
to the extent that such a thing exists --
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如果有这样的政策存在的话--
05:47
is not based on precaution,
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并不是基于预防的。
05:49
but rather on cost-benefit analysis --
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而是基于成本收益分析--
05:52
finding the course of action that economists believe
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找出那些经济学家们认为
05:54
will have the least impact
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对我们的GDP影响
05:56
on our GDP.
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最小的行动方式。
05:58
So rather than asking, as precaution would demand,
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而不是依照可能需要的预防问
06:01
what can we do as quickly as possible
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我们需要尽快做些什么
06:03
to avoid potential catastrophe,
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以避免潜在的灾难,
06:06
we ask bizarre questions like this:
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我们问些奇怪的问题,如:
06:09
"What is the latest possible moment we can wait
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“在我们开始真正的降低排放之前,
06:12
before we begin seriously lowering emissions?
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我们能坚持到什么时候?
06:15
Can we put this off till 2020,
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我们能推迟到2020年,
06:17
2030, 2050?"
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2030年,2050年?”
06:20
Or we ask,
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或者我们问,
06:22
"How much hotter can we let the planet get
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“我们能让这个地球再升温多少,
06:24
and still survive?
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而我们还能幸存?
06:26
Can we go with two degrees, three degrees, or --
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再提高两度,三度,或者--
06:28
where we're currently going --
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在现在的基础上--
06:30
four degrees Celsius?"
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再提高四摄氏度?”
06:32
And by the way,
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顺便一提,
06:34
the assumption that we can safely control
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假设我们能安全的控制地球
06:36
the Earth's awesomely complex climate system
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那了不起的复杂的气候系统,
06:39
as if it had a thermostat,
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就像它有了一个自动调温器,
06:41
making the planet not too hot, not too cold,
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让这个星期不太热,也不太冷,
06:44
but just right -- sort of Goldilocks style --
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温度正合适 -- 适合居住的风格 --
06:47
this is pure fantasy,
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这完全是想象,
06:49
and it's not coming from the climate scientists.
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不是来自气候科学家的想象;
06:52
It's coming from the economists
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它来自经济学家把
06:54
imposing their mechanistic thinking
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他们的思考方式强加于
06:56
on the science.
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科学之上。
06:58
The fact is that we simply don't know
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事实上我们并不知道
07:00
when the warming that we create
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在何时地球的循环系统
07:02
will be utterly overwhelmed
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将完全无法承受
07:04
by feedback loops.
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我们制造的全球变暖。
07:06
So once again,
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那么再一次地,
07:08
why do we take these crazy risks
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为什么我们要用我们宝贵的事物
07:10
with the precious?
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来冒如此巨大的风险呢?
07:12
A range of explanations
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现在你脑中也许会蹦出
07:14
may be popping into your mind by now,
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一堆的解释,
07:16
like "greed."
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比如,贪婪。
07:18
This is a popular explanation, and there's lots of truth to it,
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这是个常见的解释,并且也有许多证据表明这点。
07:21
because taking big risks, as we all know,
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因为正如我们所知,承担巨大风险
07:24
pays a lot of money.
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意味着巨大的收益。
07:26
Another explanation that you often hear for recklessness
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另一个大家常听到的对不顾后果的行为的解释
07:28
is hubris.
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是傲慢。
07:30
And greed and hubris
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而贪婪和傲慢
07:32
are intimately intertwined
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紧密的交织在一起,
07:34
when it comes to recklessness.
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尤其是谈到不顾一切时。
07:36
For instance, if you happen to be a 35-year-old banker
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例如,如果你是名35岁的银行家
07:39
taking home 100 times more
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比脑外科医生的收入多
07:41
than a brain surgeon,
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100倍以上,
07:43
then you need a narrative,
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接着你需要一个叙事技巧,
07:45
you need a story
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需要一个故事让
07:47
that makes that disparity okay.
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这一差距合理化。
07:49
And you actually don't have a lot of options.
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实际上你没有太多的选择。
07:52
You're either an incredibly good scammer,
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你不但是个技艺高超的骗子,
07:55
and you're getting away with it -- you gamed the system --
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你能解决问题-- 你瞒天过海 --
07:57
or you're some kind of boy genius,
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你是个天才,
07:59
the likes of which the world has never seen.
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是那种世上绝无仅有的天才。
08:02
Now both of these options -- the boy genius and the scammer --
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这些选项-- 天才和骗子 --
08:05
are going to make you vastly overconfident
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将让你过于自信
08:07
and therefore more prone
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并由此在未来
08:09
to taking even bigger risks in the future.
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更倾向于冒更大的风险。
08:13
By the way, Tony Hayward, the former CEO of BP,
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顺便说一下,托尼·海沃德,英国石油公司的前任CEO,
08:16
had a plaque on his desk
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在他的办公桌上
08:18
inscribed with this inspirational slogan:
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有个雕刻着鼓舞人心的口号标语:
08:20
"What would you attempt to do
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“如果你知道你不会失败,
08:22
if you knew you could not fail?"
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那你会尝试去做什么?”
08:25
Now this is actually a popular plaque,
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目前这是个很受欢迎的标语,
08:28
and this is a crowd of overachievers,
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并且有不少追随者,
08:30
so I'm betting that some of you have this plaque.
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我打赌你们中就有人信奉这一标语。
08:33
Don't feel ashamed.
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别害羞。
08:35
Putting fear of failure out of your mind
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把对失败的恐惧抛到脑后
08:37
can be a very good thing
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是件很好的事,
08:39
if you're training for a triathlon
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如果你进行铁人三项的训练
08:41
or preparing to give a TEDTalk,
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或是准备一个TED演讲时,
08:44
but personally, I think people with the power
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但我个人认为,有能力引爆
08:46
to detonate our economy and ravage our ecology
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我们的经济、破坏我们的生态的人们
08:49
would do better having
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最好还是在墙上挂
08:51
a picture of Icarus hanging from the wall,
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一幅伊卡洛斯的画,
08:53
because -- maybe not that one in particular --
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因为 -- 也许这不是特别的一幅画 --
08:56
but I want them thinking about the possibility of failure
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但我希望永远都考虑到
08:59
all of the time.
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失败的可能性。
09:01
So we have greed,
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目前我们有了贪婪,
09:03
we've got overconfidence/hubris,
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过度自信/傲慢,
09:05
but since we're here at TEDWomen,
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但由于我们来到了TEDWomen,
09:07
let's consider one other factor
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让我们考虑下另一个因素,
09:09
that could be contributing in some small way
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一个能在一些小方面对抗
09:11
to societal recklessness.
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社会上不顾后果的方式。
09:15
Now I'm not going to belabor this point,
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现在我不打算痛斥这一点,
09:17
but studies do show that, as investors,
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但研究显示,作为投资者,
09:19
women are much less prone
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女性冒不顾后果的风险的
09:21
to taking reckless risks than men,
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可能性要小于男性,
09:24
precisely because, as we've already heard,
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正是因为如此,也如我们曾听过的,
09:26
women tend not to suffer from overconfidence
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在同样情况下女性比男性
09:29
in the same way that men do.
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更不易遭遇过度自信的问题。
09:31
So it turns out
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因此我们发现
09:33
that being paid less and praised less
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获得较少的收入和赞美
09:35
has its upsides --
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也有它的优点 --
09:37
for society at least.
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至少对社会来说如此。
09:39
The flipside of this
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与之相反的另一面是
09:41
is that constantly being told
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你不断被告知
09:43
that you are gifted, chosen
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你有天赋,是天定的
09:45
and born to rule
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生下来就注定要统治
09:47
has distinct societal downsides.
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这明显对社会有负面影响。
09:50
And this problem -- call it the "perils of privilege" --
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而这一问题 -- 称之特权的危险 --
09:53
brings us closer, I think,
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我认为,让我们离
09:55
to the root of our collective recklessness.
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我们群体不顾后果的根本原因更近了。
09:58
Because none of us -- at least in the global North --
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因为我们中没人 -- 至少在北半球没有 --
10:00
neither men nor women,
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不论是男性还是女性,
10:02
are fully exempt from this message.
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能完全避免这些信息。
10:05
Here's what I'm talking about.
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这就是我所谈论的。
10:07
Whether we actively believe them
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无论我们是积极的相信它们
10:09
or consciously reject them,
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还是有意识的抵制它们,
10:11
our culture remains in the grips
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我们的文化中保持了
10:13
of certain archetypal stories
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一些典型的故事,
10:15
about our supremacy
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其中讲述了我们是如何的优于
10:17
over others and over nature --
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其他人,优于自然。
10:19
the narrative of the newly discovered frontier
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新发现的前沿和
10:22
and the conquering pioneer,
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征服者先锋的故事,
10:24
the narrative of manifest destiny,
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天命的故事,
10:26
the narrative of apocalypse and salvation.
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和启示录和救赎的故事。
10:28
And just when you think these stories are fading into history,
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并且等你认为这些故事消失在历史长河中,
10:30
and that we've gotten over them,
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我们都已经把它们遗忘了的时候,
10:32
they pop up in the strangest places.
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它们会在最奇特的地方蹦出来。
10:35
For instance, I stumbled across this advertisement
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例如,我在堪萨斯城机场的
10:37
outside the women's washroom
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女洗手间外面
10:39
in the Kansas City airport.
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无意中看到了这个广告。
10:41
It's for Motorola's new Rugged cell phone,
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这是摩托罗拉一款新手机的广告,
10:43
and yes, it really does say,
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是的,上面确实是这样写的,
10:45
"Slap Mother Nature in the face."
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“给自然之母一个耳光。”
10:47
And I'm not just showing it to pick on Motorola --
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我展示这个广告不是为了指责摩托罗拉 --
10:49
that's just a bonus.
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这只是个意外。
10:51
I'm showing it because --
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我展示它是因为 --
10:53
they're not a sponsor, are they? --
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他们不是始作俑者,不是么? --
10:55
because, in its own way,
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因为,以其自己的方式呈现的,
10:57
this is a crass version
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这广告是我们发展史的
10:59
of our founding story.
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一个粗鲁的版本。
11:01
We slapped Mother Nature around and won,
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我们粗暴的对待自然之母,并胜利了。
11:03
and we always win,
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我们总是胜利,
11:05
because dominating nature is our destiny.
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因为支配自然是我们的使命。
11:08
But this is not the only fairytale we tell ourselves about nature.
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但我们关于自然的童话不仅仅只是支配自然。
11:11
There's another one, equally important,
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还有另一个同样重要的,
11:14
about how that very same Mother Nature
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关于自然之母是
11:16
is so nurturing and so resilient
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如此的富饶、如此的富有韧性,
11:19
that we can never make a dent in her abundance.
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以至于我们绝不可能削弱她的富饶。
11:22
Let's hear from Tony Hayward again.
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让我们再听听托尼·海沃德所说的。
11:24
"The Gulf of Mexico is a very big ocean.
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“墨西哥湾是个非常辽阔的海洋。
11:27
The amount of oil and dispersants that we are putting into it
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我们投入其中的石油和化油剂的数量
11:30
is tiny in relation to the total water volume."
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相对于水容量总数来说非常微小。”
11:33
In other words, the ocean is big;
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换句话说,海洋是辽阔的;
11:35
she can take it.
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她能承受这一切。
11:38
It is this underlying assumption of limitlessness
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这是对无限的潜在假设,
11:41
that makes it possible
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这使我们进行不计后果地
11:43
to take the reckless risks that we do.
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冒险成为可能。
11:46
Because this is our real master-narrative:
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因为这是我们实时的主流舆论:
11:49
however much we mess up,
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无论我们陷入怎样的困境,
11:51
there will always be more --
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总会有更多的 --
11:53
more water, more land,
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更多的水源,更多的土地,
11:56
more untapped resources.
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更多的未使用的资源。
11:58
A new bubble will replace the old one.
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新的泡沫会替代旧的泡沫。
12:00
A new technology will come along
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新的科技将会出现,
12:02
to fix the messes we made with the last one.
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收拾我们用上一项科技造成的烂摊子。
12:05
In a way, that is the story
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在某种程度上,这就是
12:07
of the settling of the Americas,
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美洲定居者的故事,
12:09
the supposedly inexhaustible frontier
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美洲拥有无穷尽的疆土
12:11
to which Europeans escaped.
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因此欧洲人逃向这里。
12:14
And it's also the story of modern capitalism,
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这也是现代资本主义的故事。
12:17
because it was the wealth from this land
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因为是来自这片土地的财富
12:19
that gave birth to our economic system,
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成就了我们的经济系统,
12:22
one that cannot survive without perpetual growth
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如果没有不断的成长
12:25
and an unending supply
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无穷尽的新开拓者,
12:27
of new frontiers.
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这一系统则无法幸存。
12:29
Now the problem is
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现在问题是
12:31
that the story was always a lie.
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这类故事总是谎言。
12:33
The Earth always did have limits.
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地球永远都存在极限,
12:35
They were just beyond our sights.
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只是我们看不见它。
12:37
And now we are hitting those limits
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目前我们在许多方面
12:39
on multiple fronts.
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都接近了这些极限。
12:42
I believe that we know this,
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我相信大家都知道这点,
12:44
yet we find ourselves trapped in a kind of narrative loop.
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然而我们发现自己陷入了某种叙事轮回之中。
12:47
Not only do we continue to tell and retell
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我们不仅继续讲述和重述
12:50
the same tired stories,
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同样的老掉牙的故事,
12:52
but we are now doing so
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而且我们现在做的
12:54
with a frenzy and a fury
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更加狂热和疯狂,
12:56
that, frankly, verges on camp.
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说实在的,趋于分裂。
12:59
How else to explain the cultural space
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不然怎么解释莎拉·佩林Sarah Palin
13:02
occupied by Sarah Palin?
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所充斥的文化空间呢?
13:04
Now on the one hand,
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现在一方面,
13:06
exhorting us to "drill, baby, drill,"
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敦促我们“钻油 宝贝 钻油,”
13:08
because God put those resources into the ground
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因为上帝把这些资源埋在地下
13:11
in order for us to exploit them,
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那就是让我们去开采它们,
13:14
and on the other, glorying in the wilderness
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另一方面,在她受欢迎的
13:17
of Alaska's untouched beauty
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真人秀节目中她又赞颂阿拉斯加
13:19
on her hit reality TV show.
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那原始的野性之美。
13:22
The twin message is as comforting as it is mad.
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这矛盾的信息让人欣慰也让人疯狂。
13:25
Ignore those creeping fears
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忽视这些蔓延的恐惧
13:27
that we have finally hit the wall.
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我们终会碰壁。
13:29
There are still no limits.
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这开发仍然没有极限。
13:31
There will always be another frontier.
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总会有另一片新疆土。
13:34
So stop worrying and keep shopping.
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因此停止担忧继续挥霍。
13:37
Now, would that this were just about
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现实要是如这
13:39
Sarah Palin and her reality TV show.
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莎拉·佩林和她的真人秀节目就好了。
13:41
In environmental circles,
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在环保领域内,
13:43
we often hear that, rather than shifting to renewables,
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我们常听到我们继续保持原状,
13:46
we are continuing with business as usual.
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而不是转变为使用可再生能源。
13:49
This assessment, unfortunately,
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不幸的是,这一评估
13:51
is far too optimistic.
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太过乐观了。
13:53
The truth is that we have already exhausted
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事实是,我们已经耗尽了
13:56
so much of the easily accessible fossil fuels
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如此多的易得的矿物燃料
13:59
that we have already entered
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以至于我们已经进入了
14:01
a far riskier business era,
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极具风险的时代,
14:04
the era of extreme energy.
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极端能源的时代。
14:06
So that means drilling for oil in the deepest water,
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因此这意味着在最深的水中钻油,
14:09
including the icy Arctic seas,
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包括冰冷的北冰洋,
14:11
where a clean-up may simply be impossible.
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在那儿清理油污基本上是不可能的。
14:14
It means large-scale hydraulic fracking for gas
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这意味着大型的水力破裂法来开发天然气
14:17
and massive strip-mining operations for coal,
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和大规模的露天开矿采煤,
14:19
the likes of which we haven't yet seen.
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还有其他我们没见过的方法来大力开发。
14:22
And most controversially, it means the tar sands.
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而最具争议的是焦油砂。
14:25
I'm always surprised by how little
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我总是对加拿大之外
14:27
people outside of Canada
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只有非常少的人知道
14:29
know about the Alberta Tar Sands,
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阿尔伯达焦油砂感到惊奇,
14:31
which this year are projected to become
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而在今年从焦油砂提炼出的石油
14:33
the number one source of imported oil
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将成为美国进口石油
14:36
to the United States.
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来源的首位。
14:38
It's worth taking a moment to understand this practice,
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值得花些时间来理解这一开采过程,
14:41
because I believe it speaks to recklessness
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因为我相信从中能看出我们的不计后果
14:43
and the path we're on
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和我们所通行的道路,
14:45
like little else.
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而没有其他的。
14:47
So this is where the tar sands live,
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这就是焦油砂所在的地方,
14:50
under one of the last magnificent
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在最后的富饶的
14:52
Boreal forests.
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北方森林之下。
14:54
The oil is not liquid.
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这石油不是液体;
14:56
You can't just drill a hole and pump it out.
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不能仅仅是钻个空就能把它抽出来。
14:58
Tar sand's oil is solid,
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焦油砂中的石油是固态的,
15:00
mixed in with the soil.
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与土壤混合在一起。
15:02
So to get at it,
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因此要得到其中的石油,
15:04
you first have to get rid of the trees.
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首先要去除那些树木。
15:07
Then, you rip off the topsoil
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然后再移除上层土壤
15:09
and get at that oily sand.
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并得到富含石油的沙粒。
15:12
The process requires a huge amount of water,
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这一过程需要大量的水,
15:15
which is then pumped into massive toxic tailing ponds.
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然后废水被排入大型的有毒矿渣坑。
15:19
That's very bad news for local indigenous people
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这对居住在下游的当地土著居民来说
15:22
living downstream
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是个坏消息,
15:24
who are reporting alarmingly high cancer rates.
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他们有很高的癌症发病率。
15:27
Now looking at these images,
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现在来看看这些图片,
15:29
it's difficult to grasp the scale of this operation,
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很难了解这种作业的规模,
15:32
which can already be seen from space
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这已经可以从太空中看到
15:35
and could grow to an area the size of England.
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并扩展为英格兰大小的区域。
15:38
I find it helps actually
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我发现看看那些运送泥土的
15:40
to look at the dump trucks that move the earth,
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有史以来最大的自动倾卸卡车,
15:42
the largest ever built.
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能帮助了解其规模。
15:44
That's a person down there by the wheel.
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轮子下面是一个人。
15:46
My point is that
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我的观点是
15:48
this is not oil drilling.
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这不是石油开采,
15:50
It's not even mining.
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甚至不是采矿。
15:52
It is terrestrial skinning.
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这是在破坏地表。
15:54
Vast, vivid landscapes
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大量的富有生气的风景
15:56
are being gutted,
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被摧毁,
15:58
left monochromatic gray.
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留下单调的灰色。
16:00
Now I should confess that as [far as] I'm concerned
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现在,我应该承认,在我看来
16:03
this would be an abomination
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这是令人厌恶的,
16:05
if it emitted not one particle of carbon.
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即使它不会有任何碳排放。
16:07
But the truth is that, on average,
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但事实是,平均来说
16:10
turning that gunk into crude oil
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把这黏糊糊的东西变成原油
16:13
produces about three times more greenhouse gas pollution
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会产生比加拿大常规的产油方式
16:16
than it does to produce conventional oil
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三倍以上的温室气体
16:18
in Canada.
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排放。
16:20
How else to describe this,
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不然怎么解释这些,
16:22
but as a form of mass insanity?
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只是一种集体疯狂的方式吗?
16:25
Just when we know we need to be learning
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当我们知道我们需要学习
16:28
to live on the surface of our planet,
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如何居住在我们地球的表面,
16:30
off the power of sun, wind and waves,
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依赖于太阳、风和潮汐的能量时,
16:33
we are frantically digging
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我们正疯狂的挖掘,
16:35
to get at the dirtiest,
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为了得到可想象到的最肮脏
16:37
highest-emitting stuff imaginable.
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最具污染性的东西。
16:40
This is where our story of endless growth
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这就是我们无尽成长的故事
16:42
has taken us,
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带我们所到的地方,
16:44
to this black hole at the center of my country --
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我的国家中心的这个黑洞 --
16:47
a place of such planetary pain
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我们地球的伤痛
16:49
that, like the BP gusher,
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如英石油公司的石油泄漏,
16:51
one can only stand to look at it for so long.
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我们只能站在一旁长久的观看。
16:55
As Jared Diamond and others have shown us,
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如贾德‧戴蒙(Jared Diamond)和其他人展示给我们的,
16:58
this is how civilizations commit suicide,
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这就是文明如何走向自我毁灭,
17:01
by slamming their foot on the accelerator
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在应该踩刹车
17:04
at the exact moment
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的时候
17:06
when they should be putting on the brakes.
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自己却猛踩油门。
17:08
The problem is that our master-narrative
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问题是我们的主流舆论
17:11
has an answer for that too.
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已经对此有了答案。
17:13
At the very last minute, we are going to get saved
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在最后一刻,我们会得到拯救,
17:16
just like in every Hollywood movie,
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就像每个好莱坞电影中那样,
17:18
just like in the Rapture.
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就像电影全神贯注(the Rapture)中那样。
17:21
But, of course, our secular religion is technology.
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当然,我们世俗的信仰是科技。
17:24
Now, you may have noticed
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现在你也许已经注意到
17:27
more and more headlines like these.
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越来越多的这类头条新闻。
17:29
The idea behind this form of "geoengineering" as it's called,
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这种被称为地球工程学的背后的观点
17:32
is that, as the planet heats up,
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是,当地球变暖问题上升时,
17:34
we may be able to shoot sulfates and aluminum particles
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我们应该能发射硫酸盐和铝粒子
17:37
into the stratosphere
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至同温层
17:39
to reflect some of the sun's rays
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并把一些太阳光
17:41
back to space,
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反射回太空,
17:43
thereby cooling the planet.
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以此降低地球的温度。
17:46
The wackiest plan -- and I'm not making this up --
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最疯狂的计划是 -- 这不是我瞎编的 --
17:48
would put what is essentially a garden hose
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将一根橡胶软管放入
17:51
18-and-a-half miles high into the sky,
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十八点五英里长的高空,
17:54
suspended by balloons,
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由气球支撑,
17:56
to spew sulfur dioxide.
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用于排放二氧化硫。
17:58
So, solving the problem of pollution with more pollution.
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这样是用更多的污染来解决污染问题。
18:01
Think of it as the ultimate junk shot.
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把这看作终极垃圾弹。
18:05
The serious scientists involved in this research
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这项研究中的严肃的科学家们
18:07
all stress that these techniques
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都强调这些技术还
18:09
are entirely untested.
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完全没有经过测试。
18:11
They don't know if they'll work,
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他们不知道这是否能起作用,
18:13
and they have no idea
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并且他们也不知道
18:15
what kind of terrifying side effects they could unleash.
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这会产生什么样可怕的副作用。
18:18
Nevertheless, the mere mention of geoengineering
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尽管如此,在某些圈子里一提到
18:21
is being greeted in some circles,
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地球工程学就会获得欢呼 --
18:23
particularly media circles,
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尤其是媒体圈 --
18:25
with a relief tinged with euphoria.
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如释重负似的,还带着陶醉感。
18:27
An escape hatch has been reached.
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我们已经找到一个逃脱方案,
18:29
A new frontier has been found.
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也发现了一个新的领域。
18:31
Most importantly,
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更重要的是,
18:33
we don't have to change our lifestyles after all.
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毕竟我们不需要改变我们的生活方式了。
18:35
You see, for some people,
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对一些人来说,
18:37
their savior is a guy in a flowing robe.
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他们的救世主穿着飘逸的长袍。
18:39
For other people, it's a guy with a garden hose.
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对另一些人而言,他们的救世主则手握着橡皮软管。
18:43
We badly need some new stories.
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我们极度需要些新的故事。
18:46
We need stories that have different kinds of heroes
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我们需要各种各样的英雄故事
18:49
willing to take different kinds of risks --
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这些英雄愿意承担不同类型的风险 --
18:52
risks that confront recklessness head on,
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能够不计后果地应对风险,
18:54
that put the precautionary principle into practice,
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并能把预防原则带入实践之中,
18:57
even if that means through direct action --
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即使这要通过直接行动 --
19:00
like hundreds of young people willing to get arrested,
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比如数百个年轻人由于
19:02
blocking dirty power plants
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围堵高污染电厂或
19:04
or fighting mountaintop-removal coal mining.
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反对山顶开采煤矿而被逮捕。
19:07
We need stories
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我们需要这些故事,
19:09
that replace that linear narrative of endless growth
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它们能用循环叙事来代替
19:12
with circular narratives
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无尽成长的线性叙事,
19:14
that remind us
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这提醒我们
19:16
that what goes around comes around.
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种什么因,得什么果,
19:18
That this is our only home.
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地球是我们唯一的家园;
19:20
There is no escape hatch.
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没有什么逃脱方案。
19:22
Call it karma, call it physics,
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称之为因果报应也好,称之为自然哲学也好,
19:25
action and reaction, call it precaution --
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作用与反作用,称之为预防:
19:28
the principle that reminds us
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这一原则提醒我们
19:30
that life is too precious to be risked
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生命太珍贵了,不能拿它冒险
19:32
for any profit.
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来换取任何利益。
19:34
Thank you.
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谢谢大家。
19:36
(Applause)
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(掌声)

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