How to change your behavior for the better | Dan Ariely

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Camille Martínez

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Ivana Krivokuća

Hi.

Zdravo.

You might have noticed that I have half a beard.

Verovatno ste primetili da imam bradu do pola lica.

It's not because I lost a bet.

Nisam izgubio opkladu.

Many years ago, I was badly burned.

Pre mnogo godina, imao sam teške opekotine.

Most of my body is covered with scars,

Veći deo mog tela je prekriven ožiljcima,

including the right side of my face.

uključujući i desnu stranu mog lica.

I just don't have hair. That's just how it happened.

Prosto nemam dlake. Tako se prosto dogodilo.

It looks symmetrical, but almost.

Izgleda simetrično, ali jedva.

Anyway, now that we discussed facial hair,

Kako god, sad kad smo razgovarali o dlakama na licu,

let's move to social science.

pređimo na društvene nauke.

And in particular, I want us to think about where is the potential for humanity

A naročito želim da razmislimo o mogućem potencijalu čovečanstva

and where we are now.

i o tome gde smo sada.

And if you think about it, there's a big gap

A ako razmislite o tome, postoji veliki jaz

between where we think we could be and where we are,

između toga gde mislimo da bismo mogli da budemo i gde jesmo

and it's in all kinds of areas.

i tako je u svim oblastima.

So let me ask you:

Dozvolite da vas upitam:

How many of you in the last month have eaten more than you think you should?

koliko vas je u proteklih mesec dana pojelo više nego što mislite da je dobro?

Just kind of general. OK.

Samo uopšteno. U redu.

How many of you in the last month have exercised less than you think you should?

Koliko vas je u proteklih mesec dana radilo vežbe manje nego što bi trebalo?

OK, and for how many of you has raising your hands twice

U redu. A za koliko vas je podizanje ruku dva puta

been the most exercise you got today?

najveća fizička aktivnost za danas?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

How many of you have ever texted while driving?

Koliko vas je pisalo poruke dok ste vozili?

OK, we're getting honest. Let's test your honesty.

U redu. Postajemo iskreni. Testirajmo vašu iskrenost.

How many people here in the last month

Koliko ljudi ovde u proteklih mesec dana

have not always washed your hands when you left the bathroom?

nije uvek opralo ruke nakon upotrebe kupatila?

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

A little less honest.

Malo manje iskrenosti.

By the way, it's interesting how we're willing to admit texting and driving

Usput, zanimljivo je kako smo voljni da priznamo pisanje poruka tokom vožnje,

but not washing our hands, that's difficult.

ali ne i nepranje ruku, to je teško.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

We can go on and on.

Možemo ovako u beskraj.

The problem, the topic is that there's lots of things

Problem, tema je da postoji mnogo toga

when we know what we could do --

kada znamo kako bismo mogli da postupimo -

we could be very, very different, but we're acting in a very different way.

mogli bismo da budemo veoma drugačiji, ali postupamo veoma drugačije.

And when we think how do we bridge that gap,

A kada razmišljamo o tome kako da premostimo jaz,

the usual answer is, "Just tell people."

uobičajen odgovor glasi: „Samo recite ljudima.”

For example, just tell people that texting and driving is dangerous.

Na primer, samo recite ljudima da je pisanje poruka dok voze opasno.

Did you know it's dangerous? You should stop doing it.

Da li znate da je opasno? Nemojte to više da radite.

You tell people something is dangerous, and they will stop.

Kažete ljudima da je nešto opasno i oni će da prestanu.

Pisanje poruka dok vozite je jedan primer.

Texting and driving is one example.

Another very sad example is that in the US,

Drugi veoma tužan primer je da u SAD-u

we spend between seven and eight hundred million dollars a year

godišnje trošimo između sedam i osam stotina miliona dolara

on what's called "financial literacy."

na ono što nazivamo „finansijskom pismenošću”.

And what do we get as a consequence of that?

A šta dobijamo kao posledicu?

There was recently a study that looked at all the research ever to be conducted

Nedavno je objavljena studija koja je posmatrala sva postojeća istraživanja

on financial literacy -- what's called a meta-analysis.

o finansijskoj pismenosti - nešto što se naziva meta-analizom.

And what they found is that when you tell people,

A otkrili su da kada kažete ljudima,

you teach them financial literacy,

kada ih podučite finansijskoj pismenosti,

they learn and they remember.

oni nauče i zapamte.

But do people execute? Not so much.

Međutim, da li je upražnjavaju? Ne baš.

The improvement is about three or four percent

Napredak je oko tri do četiri procenta

immediately after the course,

neposredno po završetku kursa,

and then it goes down.

a potom opada.

And at the end of the day,

A kad se sve svede,

the improvement is about 0.1 percent --

napredak je oko 0,1 procenat -

not zero, but as humanly close to zero as possible.

nije nula, ali je najbliže nuli što je ljudski moguće.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

So that's the sad news.

Ovo su tužne vesti.

The sad news is, giving information to people

Tužne vesti su da pružanje informacija ljudima

is just not a good recipe to change behavior.

prosto nije dobar recept za izmenu ponašanja.

What is?

Šta jeste?

Well, social science has made lots of strides,

Pa, društvene nauke su napravile više iskoraka,

and the basic insight is that if we want to change behavior,

a osnovni zaključak glasi da, ako želimo da promenimo ponašanje,

we have to change the environment.

moramo da promenimo sredinu.

The right way is not to change people, it's to change the environment.

Ispravan način nije u izmeni ljudi, već u izmeni sredine.

And I want to present a very simpleminded model of how to think about it:

Želim da vam predstavim veoma uprošćen model kako da razmišljate o tome:

it's to think about behavioral change

razmišljajmo o promeni ponašanja

in the same way that we think about sending a rocket to space.

na isti način na koji razmišljamo o slanju rakete u svemir.

When we think about sending a rocket to space,

Kada razmišljamo o slanju rakete u svemir,

važne su dve glavne stvari.

we want to do two main things.

The first one is to reduce friction.

Prva je umanjenje trenja.

We want to take the rocket and have as little friction as possible

Želimo da imamo raketu sa najmanjom mogućom količinom trenja

so it's the most aerodynamic possible.

kako bi bila najaerodinamičnija.

And the second thing is we want to load as much fuel as possible,

A druga stvar je da želimo da utovarimo što je više goriva moguće,

to give it the most amount of motivation, energy to do its task.

kako bi imala najveću količinu motivacije, energije da odradi zadatak.

And behavior change is the same thing.

A isto je i sa promenom ponašanja.

So let's first talk about friction.

Zato prvo razgovarajmo o trenju.

In this particular case study I'll tell you about,

U ovoj naročitoj studiji slučaja o kojoj ću da vam govorim

there's a pharmacy, an online pharmacy.

imamo apoteku, internet apoteku.

Imagine you go to your doctor.

Zamislite da pođete kod izabranog lekara.

You have a long-term illness,

Imate dugoročnu bolest,

your doctor prescribes to you a medication,

doktor vam prepiše lek,

you sign up for this online pharmacy

pretplatite se na internet apoteku

and you get your medication in the mail every 90 days.

i lek vam stiže poštom svakih 90 dana.

Every 90 days, medication, medication, medication.

Svakih 90 dana, lek, lek, lek.

And this online pharmacy wants to switch people

A ova internet apoteka želi da preusmeri ljude

from branded medication to generic medication.

sa leka poznatog proizvođača na generički lek.

So they send people letters, and they say,

Stoga ljudima šalju pisma u kojima kažu:

"Please, please, please, switch to generics.

„Molimo, molimo, molimo vas pređite na generički.

You will save money, we will save money, your employer will save money."

Uštedećete novac, mi ćemo uštedeti novac, vaš poslodavac će uštedeti novac.”

And what do people do?

I šta će ljudi da urade?

Nothing.

Ništa.

So they try all kinds of things and nothing happens.

Pokušavaju razne stvari, ali ništa se ne dešava.

So for one year, they give people an amazing offer.

Zato na godinu dana nude ljudima izvanrednu ponudu.

They send people a letter, and they say,

Šalju ljudima pisma u kojima kažu:

"If you switch to generics now, it will be free for a whole year."

„Ako sada pređete na generički lek, biće besplatan godinu dana.”

Free for a whole year. Amazing!

Besplatan godinu dana. Sjajno!

What percentage of people do you think switched?

Šta mislite, koliki procent ljudi je prešao na novi lek?

Less than 10 percent.

Manje od deset procenata.

At this point, they show up to my office.

U ovom trenutku su došli u moju kancelariju.

And they come to complain.

A došli su da se žale.

Why did they pick me?

Zašto su odabrali mene?

I wrote a couple of papers on the "allure of free."

Napisao sam nekoliko radova o „čarima besplatnog”.

In those papers, we showed that if you reduce the price of something

U tim radovima smo pokazali da, ako umanjite cenu nečega

for, let's say, 10 cents to one cent, nothing much happens.

sa, recimo, deset centi na cent, ništa se značajno neće desiti.

You reduce it from one cent to zero, now people get excited.

Ako je umanjite sa jednog na nula centi, e, tad su ljudi uzbuđeni.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And they said, "Look, we read these papers on 'free,' we gave 'free.'

Rekli su: „Čitali smo radove o 'besplatnom', pa smo davali 'besplatno'.

Not working as we expected.

Ne deluje kako smo očekivali.

What's going on?"

O čemu se radi?”

I said, "You know, maybe it's a question of friction."

Rekao sam: „Znate, možda je trenje u pitanju.”

They said, "What do you mean?"

Upitali su: „Na šta misliš?"

Rekao sam: „Počeli su sa poznatim proizvođačem.

I said, "People are starting with branded.

They can do nothing and end with branded.

Mogu da ne urade ništa i ostanu sa njim.

To move to generic, they have to choose generic over branded,

Kako bi prešli na generički, moraju da odaberu generički naspram brendiranog,

but they also have to do something.

ali takođe moraju i da urade nešto.

They have to return the letter."

Moraju da odgovore na pismo.”

So this is what we call a "confounded design."

Dakle, ovo nazivamo „zbunjujućim dizajnom”.

Two things are happening at the same time.

Dve stvari se dešavaju istovremeno.

It's branded versus generic,

Brendirani lek naspram generičkog,

but it's doing nothing versus doing something.

ali i nedelanje naspram delanja.

So I said, "Why don't we switch it?

Upitao sam: „Zašto ga mi ne zamenimo?

Why don't we send people a letter and say, 'We're switching you to generics.

Zašto ne pošaljemo pismo ljudima i kažemo: 'Prebacujemo vas na generički.

You don't need to do anything.

Ne morate ništa da uradite.

If you want to stay with branded, please return the letter.'"

Ako želite da ostanete na brendiranom, odgovorite na pismo.'"

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Right?

Zar ne?

What do you think happened?

Šta mislite, šta se desilo?

Lawyers, lawyers happened.

Advokati, advokati su se desili.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It turns out, this is illegal.

Ispostavilo se da je ovo nezakonito.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

By the way, for brainstorming and creativity,

Usput, kod mozganja i kreativnosti,

doing things that are illegal and immoral, it's fine,

nezakonito i nemoralno postupanje su sasvim u redu,

as long as it's just in the brainstorming phase.

dokle god ostanu u fazi mozganja.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But this was the purity of the idea,

Međutim, u ovome je suština ideje:

because the initial design was the branded had the no-action benefit.

zato što je u prvobitnom dizajnu brendirani lek imao prednost nedelanja.

In my illegal, immoral design, generic had the no-action benefit.

U mom nezakonitom, nemoralnom dizajnu, generički je imao prednost nedelanja.

But they agreed to give people a T-intersection:

Međutim, pristali su da pruže ljudima trokraku raskrsnicu,

send people a letter and say,

da im pošalju pismo s rečima:

"If you don't return this letter,

„Ako ne odgovorite na ovo pismo,

we will be forced to stop your medications.

bićemo prinuđeni da stopiramo isporuku leka.

But when you return the letter, you could choose branded at this price,

No, kada odgovorite na pismo, možete da birate između brendiranog po ovoj ceni,

generic at this price."

generičkog po ovoj ceni.”

Now people had to take an action.

Sada su ljudi primorani na delanje.

They were on even footing. Right?

Bili su u istoj ravni. Je li tako?

It wasn't that one had the no-action benefit.

Nijedan lek nije imao prednost nedelanja.

What percentage do you think switched?

Šta mislite, koliki procenat se prebacio?

The vast majority switched.

Velika većina se prebacila.

So what does it tell us?

Dakle, šta nam ovo govori?

Do people like generics, or do we like branded?

Da li ljudi vole generičke ili volimo brendirane lekove?

We hate returning letters.

Mrzimo da odgovaramo na pisma.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

This is the story of friction: small things really matter.

Ovo je priča o trenju: zaista su važne male stvari.

And friction is about taking the desired behavior

A kod trenja se radi o uzimanju poželjnog ponašanja

and saying: Where do we have too much friction

i govorenju: gde imamo previše trenja

so it's slowing people down from acting on it?

koje usporava ljude da ga prevaziđu?

And every time you see that the desired behavior

A svaki put kada vidite da poželjno ponašanje

and the easy behavior are not aligned,

i jednostavno ponašanje nisu usklađeni,

it means we want to try and realign them.

to znači da želimo da ih nanovo uskladimo.

That's the first part. We talked about friction.

To je prvi deo. Govorili smo o trenju.

Now let's talk about motivation.

Sad razgovarajmo o motivaciji.

In this particular study,

Baš smo u ovoj studiji

we were trying to get very poor people in a slum called Kibera in Kenya

pokušali da navedemo veoma siromašne ljude iz sirotinjskog kvarta Kibera u Keniji

to save a little bit of money for a rainy day.

da sačuvaju nešto novca za crne dane.

You know, if you're very, very poor, you have no extra money,

Znate, ako ste veoma, veoma siromašni, nemate dodatnog novca,

you live hand to mouth,

živite od danas do sutra,

and from time to time, bad things happen.

a povremeno se dešavaju loše stvari.

And when something bad happens, you have nothing to draw on, you borrow.

A kada se nešto loše desi, nemate zalihe, morate da pozajmljujete.

The Kibera people can borrow at sometimes up to 10 percent interest a week.

Ljudi iz Kibere ponekad mogu da se zaduže i s kamatnim stopama od 10% nedeljno.

And then, of course, it's really hard to get out of it.

A onda, naravno, teško je izvući se iz toga.

You live hand to mouth, something bad happens,

Živite od danas do sutra, nešto loše se desi,

you borrow, things get worse and worse and worse.

zadužite se, stvari postanu samo gore i gore.

So we wanted people to keep a little bit of money for a rainy day.

Pa smo želeli da ljudi uštede malo novca za crne dane.

And we thought about what is the motivation,

Pa smo razmišljali o motivaciji,

what is the fuel that we need to add?

o pokretaču koji moramo da dodamo.

And we tried all kinds of things.

Isprobali smo razne stvari.

Some people, we texted them once a week and said,

Nekim ljudima smo jednom nedeljno slali poruke s rečima:

"Please try to save 100 shillings" -- about a dollar -- "this week."

„Molimo vas, pokušajte da uštedite sto šilinga” - oko dolara - „ove nedelje.”

Some people, we sent a text message as if it came from their kids.

Nekim ljudima smo slali poruku kao da stiže od njihove dece.

So it said, "Hi Mom, hi Dad, this is little Joey" --

Glasila je: „Zdravo, mama i tata, piše vam mali Džoi” -

whatever the name of the kid was --

ili kako se već zvalo dete -

"Try and save 100 shillings this week for the future of our family."

„Pokušajte da uštedite sto šilinga ove nedelje za budućnost naše porodice.”

Right? I'm Jewish, a little bit of guilt always works.

Je li tako? Ja sam Jevrej, malo krivice uvek deluje.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Some people got 10 percent.

Neki ljudi su dobili 10 procenata.

"Save up to a hundred shillings, we'll give you 10 percent."

„Uštedite do sto šilinga, daćemo vam 10 procenata.”

Some people got 20 percent.

Neki ljudi su dobili 20 procenata.

Some people got also 10 percent and 20 percent,

Neki ljudi su dobili i 10 i 20 procenata,

but they got it with loss aversion.

ali uz averziju prema gubitku.

Šta je averzija prema gubitku?

What is loss aversion?

Loss aversion is the idea that we hate losing

Averzija prema gubitku je zamisao da mrzimo da gubimo

more than we enjoy gaining.

više nego što uživamo da dobijamo.

Now, think about somebody who is in a 10-percent condition

Sad zamislite nekoga u slučaju deset procenata

and they put 40 shillings in.

i on uštedi 40 šilinga.

They put 40 shillings, we give them four more,

Odvoji 40 šilinga, mi mu damo dodatna četiri.

they say thank you very much.

On kaže hvala lepo.

That person gave up six.

Ta osoba je izgubila šest.

They could have gotten six more if they gave a hundred,

Mogli su da dobiju još šest, da su dali stotinu,

but they don't see it.

ali oni to ne uviđaju.

So we created what we call pre-match.

Pa smo osmislili nešto što nazivamo početnim bonusom.

We put the 10 shillings in at the beginning of the week.

Odvojili smo deset šilinga na početku nedelje.

Rekli smo, „Čekaju na vas!”

We said, "It's waiting for you!"

And then if somebody puts 40 in, we say, "Oh, you put 40 in,

U tom slučaju, ako neko odvoji 40, kažemo: „Uplatili ste 40,

we're leaving four, and we're taking six back."

ostavljamo četiri, a uzimamo šest.”

So in both cases, pre-match or post-match,

Dakle, u oba slučaja, kod početnog ili krajnjeg bonusa,

people get 10 percent.

ljudi bi dobili 10 procenata.

But in the pre-match,

Međutim, kod početnog bonusa,

they see the money they did not match leaving their account.

videli su mogući bonus kako napušta njihov nalog.

So we have text, text from kids, 10 percent, 20 percent,

Imali smo poruke, poruke od dece, 10 procenata, 20 procenata,

pre-match, post-match.

početni bonus, krajnji bonus.

And we had one more condition.

I imali smo još jednu mogućnost.

It was a coin about this size,

Radilo se o novčiću ove veličine,

with 24 numbers written on it.

sa 24 broja ispisana na njemu.

And we asked them to put the coin somewhere in their hut,

I zatražili smo im da smeste novčić negde u svoju baraku

and every week, take a knife and scratch the number for that week --

i da svake nedelje uzmu nož i ogrebu broj za tu nedelju -

week one, two, three, four --

prva nedelja, druga, treća, četvrta -

scratch it like a minus if they didn't save

da grebu u vidu minusa ako ne uštede,

and scratch it up and down if they saved.

a da grebu u smeru gore-dole, ako uštede.

Now, think to yourself:

Sad, razmislite sami:

Which one of those methods do you think worked the best?

koji metod je najbolje delovao?

Text, text from the kids, 10 percent, 20 percent,

Poruka, poruka od dece, 10 procenata, 20 procenata,

beginning of the week, end of the week, and the coin?

početak nedelje, kraj nedelje i novčić?

Reći ću vam šta prosečni ljudi misle.

I'll tell you what the average people think.

We've done these studies of prediction,

Radili smo studije nagađanja

both in the US and in Kenya.

i u SAD-u i u Keniji.

People think that 20 percent will get a lot of action,

Ljudi su smatrali da će 20 procenata da izazove veliku pažnju,

10 percent less,

10 procenata manju,

the rest of it will do nothing --

a ostatak neće postići ništa -

kids, coin, doesn't matter.

deca i novčić nisu važni.

People think loss aversion will have a small effect.

Ljudi smatraju da će averzija prema gubitku da ima mali uticaj.

What actually happened?

Šta se zapravo desilo?

Sending a text reminder once a week

Nedeljni podsetnik u vidu poruke

helps a lot.

pomaže mnogo.

Good news!

Dobre vesti!

Program je trajao šest meseci. Ljudi zaborave. Podsećanje ljudi je sjajno.

This program lasted six months. People forget. Reminding people is great.

Ten percent at the end of the week helped some more.

Deset procenata na kraju nedelje je pomoglo još više.

Financial incentives work.

Finansijski podsticaji deluju.

Twenty percent at the end of the week -- just like 10 percent, no difference.

Dvadeset procenata na kraju nedelje - isto kao 10 procenata, nema razlike.

Ten percent in the beginning of the week

Deset procenata na početku nedelje

helps some more.

još više pomaže.

Loss aversion works.

Averzija prema gubitku deluje.

Twenty percent in the beginning of the week,

Dvadeset procenata na početku nedelje,

just like 10 percent in the beginning of the week, no difference.

baš kao 10 procenata na početku nedelje, nema razlike.

And the text message from the kids was just as effective

A poruka od dece je bila jednako učinkovita

as 20 percent plus loss aversion --

kao 20 procenata plus averzija prema gubitku -

which is amazing, right?

a to je neverovatno, zar ne?

It's amazing how motivating messages from kids were.

Neverovatno koliko su podsticajne bile poruke od dece.

And one conclusion is we don't use kids enough.

A jedan od zaključaka glasi da ne koristimo dovoljno decu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And, of course, I don't mean in a child labor sense.

I, naravno, ne mislim u smislu dečjeg rada.

But if you think about parents and their kids,

Međutim, ako mislite na roditelje i decu,

we are the best that we can for our kids,

najbolji smo prema našoj deci,

and we think about the future,

razmišljamo o budućnosti,

and I think we should think

i mislim da bi trebalo da mislimo

about how to use that amazing source of motivation

o tome kako da koristimo taj izvanredni izvor motivacije

to get parents to behave in a better way.

da navedemo roditelje da se ponašaju bolje.

But the big surprise of this study was the coin.

Međutim, veliko iznenađenje u ovoj studiji je bio novčić.

The coin basically doubled savings compared to everything else.

Novčić je u suštini udvostručio uštede u poređenju sa svim ostalim.

And now the question is: Why? What was it about the coin?

Što povlači pitanje: zašto? Šta je to u vezi s novčićem?

So I'll tell you how I started thinking about the coin,

Reći ću vam kako sam počeo da razmišljam o novčiću,

and then we'll come back to it.

pa ćemo se vratiti na njega.

So you know, when I do research on, let's say, buying coffee,

Znate, kada radim istraživanje o, recimo, kupovini kafe,

I don't need to go anywhere. I can sit in my office.

ne moram nigde da idem. Mogu da sedim u kancelariji.

I've bought enough coffee. I know how it works.

Dovoljno puta sam kupio kafu. Znam postupak.

The details, I'm familiar with.

Pojedinosti su mi poznate.

When you do research in some of the poorest places in the world,

Kada radite istraživanje u nekim od najsiromašnijih delova sveta,

you have to go and visit and see what's going on

morate da pođete u posetu i vidite šta se dešava

and get some insight about how the system works.

kako biste imali nekakav uvid o tome kako sistem funkcioniše.

And on that particular day,

A baš tog dana,

I'm in a place called Soweto in South Africa,

bio sam u mestu Soveto u Južnoj Africi

and I'm sitting in a place that sells funeral insurance.

i sedeo sam na mestu gde se prodaju osiguranja za sahrane.

You know, in the US people spend crazy amounts of money on weddings?

Znate kako u SAD-u ljudi troše sulude sume novca na venčanja?

In South Africa, it's funerals.

U Južnoj Africi troše na sahrane.

People spend up to a year or two years of income on funerals.

Ljudi troše godišnji ili dvogodišnji prihod na sahrane.

And I sit in this place --

I sedim na ovom mestu -

by the way, before you judge the South Africans as being irrational with this,

usput, pre nego što osudite Južnoafrikance kao iracionalne zbog ovoga,

I just want to remind you

samo želim da vas podsetim

that spending a lot of money on funerals compared to weddings,

da trošenjem velikih suma novca na sahrane u poređenju sa svadbama,

at least you know for sure you only have one.

bar ste sigurni da ćete da imate samo jednu.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

OK, so I sit in this place that sells funeral insurance.

U redu, sedim na tom mestu koje prodaje pogrebna osiguranja.

And this guy comes in with his son -- his son is about 12 --

Dolazi jedan čovek sa sinom - sin mu ima oko 12 godina -

and he buys funeral insurance for a week.

i kupuje pogrebno osiguranje na nedelju dana.

It will cover 90 percent of his funeral expense

Pokriće 90 procenata troškova njegove sahrane,

only if he dies in the next seven days.

samo ako umre u narednih sedam dana.

Right? These are very poor people, they buy small amounts of insurance

Je l' da? Ovo su veoma siromašni ljudi, kupuju osiguranje na malo,

and small amount of soap and such.

male količine sapuna i slično.

And he gets that certificate,

I on prima sertifikat

and in a very ceremonious way, he gives it to his son.

i na veoma svečan način uručuje ga njegovom sinu.

And as he gives it to his son, I think to myself, why the ceremony?

I dok ga pruža sinu, razmišljam u sebi: čemu svečanost?

What is this father doing?

Šta radi ovaj otac?

Now, think about the breadwinner that decides on that particular day

Razmislite o jedinom zaposlenom članu porodice koji odluči da baš taj dan

to direct some money into insurance or savings.

preusmeri nešto novca na osiguranje ili štednju.

What is the family going to see tonight?

Šta će porodica da vidi večeras?

They're going to see less.

Videće manje.

Right? At that level of poverty, there'll be less food, less kerosene, less water --

Tačno? Na tom stadijumu siromaštva biće manje hrane, manje goriva, manje vode -

something less tonight.

biće nečeg manje večeras.

And what his father was doing and what our coin was trying to do

A ono što je njegov otac radio i što je naš novčić pokušao da uradi

is to say, yes, there's less food on the table,

je da kaže, da, biće manje hrane na stolu,

but there's another activity.

ali postoji i druga aktivnost.

You see, what happened is, there are many good, important economic activities,

Vidite, dešava se to da postoje mnoge dobre, važne ekonomske aktivnosti,

like savings and insurance, that are invisible.

poput štednje i osiguranja koje su nevidljive.

And now the question is: How do we make them visible?

Pitanje sada glasi: kako da ih učinimo vidljivim?

So let's go back to our rocket model.

Vratimo se na model rakete.

We have to, first of all, look at the system

Moramo pre svega da posmatramo sistem

and see where there's little things we can fix, with friction,

i uočimo gde su sitnice koje možemo da popravimo, u vezi sa trenjem,

where is there that we can remove friction?

ako je prisutno, kako da ga uklonimo?

And then the next thing we want to do is to think broadly about the system,

A potom, sledeća stvar koju možemo da uradimo je da mislimo šire o sistemu

and say: What other motivations can we bring in?

i da kažemo: koje još motivacije možemo da uvedemo?

And that's a much more difficult exercise,

A to je daleko teža vežba

and we don't always know what would work best.

jer ne znamo uvek šta je najfunkcionalnije.

Is it going to be money? Is it going to be loss aversion?

Da li je to novac? Da li je to averzija prema gubitku?

Is it going to be something that is visible?

Da li je to nešto što je vidljivo?

We don't know, and we have to try different things.

Ne znamo i moramo da isprobamo različite stvari.

We also have to realize that our intuition sometimes misleads us.

Moramo i da uvidimo da nas intuicija ponekad obmanjuje.

We don't always necessarily know what would work the best.

Ne znamo nužno uvek šta bi najbolje funkcionisalo.

So if we think about this gap

Zato, ako razmislimo o ovom jazu

između toga gde bismo mogli da budemo i gde jesmo,

between where we could be and where we are,

it's a really sad thing to see this gap and to think about it.

zaista je tužno videti ovaj jaz i razmišljati o njemu.

But the good news is, there's lots we can do.

No, dobre vesti su da mnogo toga možemo da uradimo.

Some of the changes are easy, some of the changes are more complex.

Neke promene su lake, neke su složenije.

Međutim, ako se direktno suočimo sa svakim problemom,

But if we'll attack each problem directly,

not by just providing more information to people

ne samo pukim pružanjem više informacija ljudima,

but trying to change the friction,

već pokušavanjem da se izmeni trenje,

add motivation,

doda motivacija,

I think we can ...

mislim da možemo...

Can we close the gap? No.

Možemo li da zatvorimo jaz? Ne.

But can we get much better? Absolutely, yes.

Međutim, možemo li da budemo mnogo bolji? Apsolutno, da.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)