How to change your behavior for the better | Dan Ariely

571,763 views ・ 2019-12-17

TED


Videoni ijro etish uchun quyidagi inglizcha subtitrlarga ikki marta bosing.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Camille Martínez
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Translator: Dilora Yusupova Reviewer: Nazarbek Nazarov
00:12
Hi.
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Barchaga salom.
00:14
You might have noticed that I have half a beard.
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Yuzimning yarmida soqol yoʻqligini sezgandirsiz-a?
00:17
It's not because I lost a bet.
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Yoʻq, bu bahsni boy berganimdan emas.
00:19
Many years ago, I was badly burned.
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Ancha yillar oldin juda jiddiy kuyishni boshdan kechirganman.
00:22
Most of my body is covered with scars,
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Natija:butun tanam chandiqlar bilan qoplandi
00:24
including the right side of my face.
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jumladan, yuzimning oʻng tarafi ham.
00:26
I just don't have hair. That's just how it happened.
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Shu sababli, yuzimning yarmida teri tuklari oʻsmaydi.
00:29
It looks symmetrical, but almost.
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Bu deyarli simmetrik koʻrinadi shundaymi?
00:31
Anyway, now that we discussed facial hair,
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Xullas, yuz tuklarini muhokama qilib boʻldig-a?
00:35
let's move to social science.
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Keling, endi ijtimoiy fanlarga oʻtamiz.
00:37
And in particular, I want us to think about where is the potential for humanity
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Ayniqsa, insoniyatning imkoniyat chegarasi va u hozirgacha erisha olgan nuqta farqiga
eʼtibor qaratishni istardim.
00:44
and where we are now.
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00:45
And if you think about it, there's a big gap
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Ahamiyat bersak, ular oʻrtasidagi tafovvut katta.
00:47
between where we think we could be and where we are,
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Qanday sohada boʻlmasin, biz erisha oladigan narsalar va
00:50
and it's in all kinds of areas.
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erishganimiz oʻrtasida juda katta boʻshliq bor.
00:52
So let me ask you:
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Sizga bir savolim bor:
00:54
How many of you in the last month have eaten more than you think you should?
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orangizda qanchangiz avvalgi oyda oʻz meʼyoringizdan ortiq ovqatlandingiz?
00:58
Just kind of general. OK.
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Shunchaki oʻrtacha qilib olganimizda. Yaxshi.
01:00
How many of you in the last month have exercised less than you think you should?
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Orangizdan qanchangiz oʻtgan oy keragidan kam jismoniy mashq bajardingiz?
01:05
OK, and for how many of you has raising your hands twice
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Xoʻp. Orangizdan qanchangiz uchun hozirgi qoʻl koʻtarish mashqlari
01:08
been the most exercise you got today?
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bugun uchun yagona badantarbiya boʻldi?
01:10
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
01:13
How many of you have ever texted while driving?
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Orangizda mashina haydayotib bir marta boʻlsa ham xabar yozishganlar bormi?
01:18
OK, we're getting honest. Let's test your honesty.
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Yaxshi, vijdonan javob berishga oʻtdik. Keling, vijdoningizni sinaymiz.
01:21
How many people here in the last month
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Shu yerdagilarning qanchasi oʻtgan oy davomida
01:23
have not always washed your hands when you left the bathroom?
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xojatxonadan chiqayotib doim ham qoʻlini yuvmagan?
01:26
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
Ha, vijdon biroz pand berdi.
01:28
A little less honest.
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01:29
By the way, it's interesting how we're willing to admit texting and driving
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Aytgancha, biz mashina haydab, telefon ishlatganimizni oson tan oldik.
01:33
but not washing our hands, that's difficult.
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Lekin qoʻlimizni yuvmaslikka kelganda esa...
01:35
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
01:37
We can go on and on.
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Bunday misollar juda koʻp
01:38
The problem, the topic is that there's lots of things
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Muammo shundaki, biz qila olishimizga imonimiz komil boʻlgan
01:41
when we know what we could do --
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narsalar, vaziyatlar juda koʻp.
01:43
we could be very, very different, but we're acting in a very different way.
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Biz umuman boshqa odam boʻlishimiz mumkin, biroq harakatlarimiz boshqacha.
01:47
And when we think how do we bridge that gap,
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Oʻrtadagi tafovvutni qanday yengish mumkin?
01:49
the usual answer is, "Just tell people."
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Javobi oddiy: "Boshqalarni xabardor qiling"
Masalan, atrofingizdagilarga rulda telefon ishlatish xatarliligi ayting
01:52
For example, just tell people that texting and driving is dangerous.
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01:55
Did you know it's dangerous? You should stop doing it.
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"Bu xavfli ekanligini bilmaysanmi? Boshqa bunday qilma"
Odamlarga nimadir xatarli ekanligini aytsangiz, ular buni toʻxtatadi.
01:58
You tell people something is dangerous, and they will stop.
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02:01
Texting and driving is one example.
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Rulda telefon ishlatish bir misol.
02:02
Another very sad example is that in the US,
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Yana bir achinarli misol:
AQSh yiliga
02:05
we spend between seven and eight hundred million dollars a year
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700-800 million dollarni "moliyaviy savodxonlik" yoʻlida sarflaydi
02:08
on what's called "financial literacy."
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02:11
And what do we get as a consequence of that?
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Bundan natija nima?
02:13
There was recently a study that looked at all the research ever to be conducted
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Yaqinda moliyaviy savodxonlikka oid barcha tadqiqotlar
02:17
on financial literacy -- what's called a meta-analysis.
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oʻrganib chiqildi. Jarayon "meta-analiz" deyiladi.
02:20
And what they found is that when you tell people,
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Ularning aniqlashlariga koʻra, insonlarga moliyaviy savodxonlikdan
02:23
you teach them financial literacy,
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dars oʻtilayotganini aytsangiz,
02:25
they learn and they remember.
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ular maʼlumotlarni oʻrganib, yaxshi eslab qoladilar
02:27
But do people execute? Not so much.
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Biroq oʻrganganlarini amalda qoʻllashadimi? Yoʻq, kamdan-kam.
02:30
The improvement is about three or four percent
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Oʻquv dasturi yakunidagi hisoblashlar
savodxonlik 3-4% ga oshganini koʻrsatdi
02:33
immediately after the course,
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Biroz oʻtib koʻrsatkich yana pasaydi
02:35
and then it goes down.
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02:36
And at the end of the day,
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Qarabsizki,
02:38
the improvement is about 0.1 percent --
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yakuniy oʻsish – 0,1%.
Ha, 0 emas, lekin shunda ham 0 ga juda-juda yaqin.
02:42
not zero, but as humanly close to zero as possible.
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02:45
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
Mana shu holat men uchun achinarli.
02:48
So that's the sad news.
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02:49
The sad news is, giving information to people
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Gap shundaki, odamlarga shunchaki maʼlumotni yetkazish
doim ham ularning harakatlarini yaxshi tomonga oʻzgartira olmaskan
02:52
is just not a good recipe to change behavior.
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02:55
What is?
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Unda nima qilish kerak?
02:56
Well, social science has made lots of strides,
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Bu borada ijtimoiy fanlar bir necha yechim bera oladi.
02:59
and the basic insight is that if we want to change behavior,
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Eng birinchi qadam shuki, kishining harakatlarini oʻzgartirish uchun
03:02
we have to change the environment.
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dastlab uning muhitini oʻzgartirish lozim
03:05
The right way is not to change people, it's to change the environment.
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Demak, insonni emas, muhitni oʻzgartirish kerak
03:08
And I want to present a very simpleminded model of how to think about it:
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Keling, sizga buni oddiy soʻzlar bilan tushuntiraman.
03:12
it's to think about behavioral change
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Buning uchun xulq-atvorni oʻzgartirishni
03:14
in the same way that we think about sending a rocket to space.
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fazoga raketa joʻnatishga qiyoslaylik.
03:17
When we think about sending a rocket to space,
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Fazoga raketa uchirish paytida ikki narsani
03:20
we want to do two main things.
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esda saqlashimiz lozim.
03:21
The first one is to reduce friction.
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Birinchisi – qarshilikni kamaytirish.
03:24
We want to take the rocket and have as little friction as possible
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Raketaning aerodinamikasini taʼminlash uchun
03:27
so it's the most aerodynamic possible.
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uning qarshilik kuchi kichik boʻlishi kerak.
03:29
And the second thing is we want to load as much fuel as possible,
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Ikkinchi vazifamiz – unga koʻp miqdorda yoqilgʻilarni joylashdir.
03:32
to give it the most amount of motivation, energy to do its task.
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Shunda u vazifalarni bajarish uchun yetarli quvvatga ega boʻladi.
03:37
And behavior change is the same thing.
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Xulq-atvorni oʻzgartirish ham shunday.
03:39
So let's first talk about friction.
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Muhokamani qarshilikdan boshlaylik
03:43
In this particular case study I'll tell you about,
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Sizga aytib bermoqchi boʻlgan bir tadqiqotimizda
03:46
there's a pharmacy, an online pharmacy.
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onlayn dorixona bilan ish olib bordik.
03:49
Imagine you go to your doctor.
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Tasavvur qiling, doktor huzuriga bordingiz
03:51
You have a long-term illness,
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Muolajangiz uzoq davom etarkan.
03:53
your doctor prescribes to you a medication,
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Shifokor sizga zarur dorilarni yozib berdi.
03:55
you sign up for this online pharmacy
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Siz yuqoridagi onlayn dorixona bilan
03:58
and you get your medication in the mail every 90 days.
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shartnoma tuzdingiz va har 90 kunda pochta orqali dorilarni oldingiz.
04:01
Every 90 days, medication, medication, medication.
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Har 90 kunda dori, dori, dori.
04:04
And this online pharmacy wants to switch people
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Onlayn dorixona oʻz mijozlariga
04:07
from branded medication to generic medication.
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brend dorilardan arzonroqiga oʻtishni taklif qilishmoqchi.
Ular email orqali mijozlarga shunday xat yozishadi:
04:11
So they send people letters, and they say,
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04:13
"Please, please, please, switch to generics.
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"Iltimos, arzonroq dorilarga oʻting.
04:15
You will save money, we will save money, your employer will save money."
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Bunda siz ham, biz ham, sizning boshligʻingiz ham pul tejaydi".
04:19
And what do people do?
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Xoʻsh, odamlar nima qilarkan?
04:20
Nothing.
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Hech nima.
04:21
So they try all kinds of things and nothing happens.
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Dorixonadagilar turli usullarni qoʻllab koʻrishdi.
04:24
So for one year, they give people an amazing offer.
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Natija boʻlmagach, bir ajoyib taklif eʼlon qilishdi.
04:27
They send people a letter, and they say,
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Unda yozilishicha:
04:29
"If you switch to generics now, it will be free for a whole year."
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"Agar arzonroq dorilarga oʻtsangiz, 1 yil davomida ular tekin boʻladi".
04:33
Free for a whole year. Amazing!
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1 yil tekin. Bu ajoyibku!
04:35
What percentage of people do you think switched?
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Mijozlarning necha foizi taklifni qabul qildi deb oʻylaysiz?
04:39
Less than 10 percent.
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10% dan kami.
04:41
At this point, they show up to my office.
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Shunda dorixona xodimlari oldimga keldi.
04:43
And they come to complain.
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Ular norozi edilar.
04:45
Why did they pick me?
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Mening aybim nima deysizmi?
04:46
I wrote a couple of papers on the "allure of free."
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Men "oʻziga tortuvchi tekin narsa" mavzularida koʻp yozgandim.
04:49
In those papers, we showed that if you reduce the price of something
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Ularda shunday deyilgandi, agar biror narsaning narxini
04:52
for, let's say, 10 cents to one cent, nothing much happens.
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10 sentdan 1 sentga tushursangiz, savdoda katta oʻzgarish boʻlmaydi
04:55
You reduce it from one cent to zero, now people get excited.
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Uni 1 sentdan 0 sentga oʻzgartirsangiz esa odamlar xursand.
04:58
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
05:00
And they said, "Look, we read these papers on 'free,' we gave 'free.'
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Dorixona xodimlari: "Qara, sening gapingga kirib, tekin qildik.
05:03
Not working as we expected.
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Nega bu ish bermayapti?
05:04
What's going on?"
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Gap nimada?" – deyishdi.
05:06
I said, "You know, maybe it's a question of friction."
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"Balki gap qarshilik kuchidadir",– dedim men.
05:09
They said, "What do you mean?"
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Ular tushunmadi. Ularga tushuntirdim:
05:11
I said, "People are starting with branded.
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"Odamlar brend dorilarga yozilishgan.
05:13
They can do nothing and end with branded.
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Ular hech narsa qilishmasa ham, shu dorilarni olaverishadi
05:15
To move to generic, they have to choose generic over branded,
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Oddiy dorilarga oʻtish uchun ular bu haqida xabar berishlari lozim.
05:19
but they also have to do something.
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Buning uchun esa,
ular sizga javob xati yozishlari kerak".
05:21
They have to return the letter."
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05:22
So this is what we call a "confounded design."
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Buni "hayratlantiruvchi dizayn" deb nomlaymiz.
Bu yerda ikki xil jarayon bir vaqtda sodir boʻlyapti
05:25
Two things are happening at the same time.
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05:27
It's branded versus generic,
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Brend vs oddiy
05:29
but it's doing nothing versus doing something.
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hamda hech nima qilmaslik vs harakat.
Shunda ularning joyini almashtirishni taklif qildim
05:32
So I said, "Why don't we switch it?
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05:34
Why don't we send people a letter and say, 'We're switching you to generics.
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Mijozlarga: "Biz sizlarni arzon dorilarga aʼzo qilmoqchimiz.
Sizdan hech narsa talab qilinmaydi
05:38
You don't need to do anything.
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05:39
If you want to stay with branded, please return the letter.'"
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brend dorilar bilan qolmoqchi boʻlsangiz, xabar bering", desakchi?
05:42
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
05:43
Right?
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Toʻgʻrimi?
05:45
What do you think happened?
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Nima boʻldi deb oʻylaysiz?
05:48
Lawyers, lawyers happened.
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Advokatlar, advokatlar murojaat qilishdi
05:50
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
Maʼlum boʻlishicha, bu qonunga zid ekan.
05:56
It turns out, this is illegal.
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05:57
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
06:03
By the way, for brainstorming and creativity,
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Aytgancha, ijodkorlik va gʻoyalarni rivojlantirish uchun
06:06
doing things that are illegal and immoral, it's fine,
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noqonuniy yoki nojoiz ishlar haqida oʻylash yaxshi.
06:08
as long as it's just in the brainstorming phase.
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Agar u amalga koʻchmay, faqat miyada qolsa.
06:12
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
06:13
But this was the purity of the idea,
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Biroq masalaning negiziga qarasak,
06:15
because the initial design was the branded had the no-action benefit.
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chindan ham, brendli dorilarni olish uchun mijoz hech qanday ish qilishi kerak emas.
06:19
In my illegal, immoral design, generic had the no-action benefit.
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Men taklif qilgan noqonuniy gʻoyada esa, aksi– arzon dorini shundoq ham olaverasiz
06:23
But they agreed to give people a T-intersection:
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Mening gʻoyam ish bermagach,biz ikki taraf ham birlashgan nuqtani topdik
06:26
send people a letter and say,
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E-mailda shunday yozdik:
06:28
"If you don't return this letter,
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Agar xabarga javob yozmasangiz,
06:30
we will be forced to stop your medications.
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dori yetkazishni toʻxtatishga majbur boʻlamiz.
06:33
But when you return the letter, you could choose branded at this price,
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Javob xatingizda n narxli brend yoki m narxli oddiy dorini tanlaganingizni
06:36
generic at this price."
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yozib joʻnatishingizni soʻraymiz.
06:38
Now people had to take an action.
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Ana endi ular bir nima qilmasa boʻlmaydi
06:40
They were on even footing. Right?
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Ikki tomonda ham bir xil shart shundaymi?
06:42
It wasn't that one had the no-action benefit.
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Hech nima qilmasdan biriga erishishning iloji yoʻq vaziyat
06:44
What percentage do you think switched?
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Necha foiz odatiy dorilarga oʻtdi deysiz?
06:48
The vast majority switched.
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Aksariyat odamlar.
06:50
So what does it tell us?
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Xoʻsh, bu nimani anglatadi?
06:51
Do people like generics, or do we like branded?
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Kishilar oddiy dorilarni afzal koʻradimi yo brendni?
Bir narsa aniq:
06:54
We hate returning letters.
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xatlarga javob berishni yomon koʻramiz. (kulgu)
06:56
(Laughter)
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06:58
This is the story of friction: small things really matter.
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Mana shu birinchi xulosamiz boʻldi: kichik narsalar muhim ahamiyatga ega.
07:02
And friction is about taking the desired behavior
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Demak, qarama-qarshilikni aniqlash uchun istalgan vazifani olib,
07:06
and saying: Where do we have too much friction
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uning qaysi qismida qarama-qarshilik koʻpligini aniqlang
07:08
so it's slowing people down from acting on it?
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Aynan shu istalgan harakatni bajarishdan ushlab turibdi
07:11
And every time you see that the desired behavior
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Istalgan harakat va bajarilishi oson boʻlgan harakat
07:13
and the easy behavior are not aligned,
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bir-biriga toʻgʻri kelmagan holda
07:15
it means we want to try and realign them.
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ularni qayta koʻrib chiqib, bir-birga moslash kerak.
07:18
That's the first part. We talked about friction.
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Birinchi qismda qarama-qarshilik haqida gaplashdik.
07:20
Now let's talk about motivation.
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Keling endi motivatsiyani koʻrib chiqamiz
07:22
In this particular study,
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Bir tadqiqotimizda
07:24
we were trying to get very poor people in a slum called Kibera in Kenya
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Biz Keniyaning Kibera nomli xarobalaridagi odamlarni qora kunga pul saqlab qoʻyishga
07:28
to save a little bit of money for a rainy day.
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koʻndirmoqchi boʻldik.
Bilamizki, kambagʻallikda ortiqcha pul saqlab qoʻyish qiyin.
07:31
You know, if you're very, very poor, you have no extra money,
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Kuningiz har kuni topayotgan pulingiz hisobiga oʻtadi
07:34
you live hand to mouth,
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07:35
and from time to time, bad things happen.
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baʼzan kutilmagan muammolar chiqadi.
07:37
And when something bad happens, you have nothing to draw on, you borrow.
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Ana shunda, sizning ortiqcha xarajatga pulingiz boʻlmaydi – qarz olasiz.
07:42
The Kibera people can borrow at sometimes up to 10 percent interest a week.
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Kibera aholisi esa, baʼzan haftasiga 10% qoʻshimcha toʻlab ham qarz olishadi.
07:48
And then, of course, it's really hard to get out of it.
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Qarabsizki, qarz botqogʻidan chiqish qiyinlashib boradi.
Bazoʻr kun kechirayotgandingiz, bir koʻrgilik boʻldi.
07:51
You live hand to mouth, something bad happens,
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07:53
you borrow, things get worse and worse and worse.
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Qarz oldingiz, vaziyat kundan kunga yanada ogʻirlashdi.
07:56
So we wanted people to keep a little bit of money for a rainy day.
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Shuning uchun ham,ularga qora kunga pul saqlab qoʻyishni uqtirdik.
08:00
And we thought about what is the motivation,
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Shunda ularni bu ishga qanday ruhlantirish,
08:02
what is the fuel that we need to add?
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qaysi yoqilgʻi qoʻshish haqida oʻylay boshladik.
08:05
And we tried all kinds of things.
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Biz har narsa qilib koʻrdik.
08:07
Some people, we texted them once a week and said,
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Baʼzilariga har hafta xabar yozib,
08:09
"Please try to save 100 shillings" -- about a dollar -- "this week."
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shu hafta 100 shilling (taxminan 1 dollar) saqlab qoʻyishni soʻradik.
08:14
Some people, we sent a text message as if it came from their kids.
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Baʼzilariga bu xat goʻyoki oʻz bolalaridan kelgandek qilib yozdik:
08:19
So it said, "Hi Mom, hi Dad, this is little Joey" --
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"Otajon, oyijon, bu men Joey" –
08:22
whatever the name of the kid was --
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farzandining ismi
08:24
"Try and save 100 shillings this week for the future of our family."
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"Oilamiz kelajagi uchun bu hafta 100 shiling saqlab qoʻyaylik"
08:28
Right? I'm Jewish, a little bit of guilt always works.
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Qalay? Men yahudiyman. Bizning falasafada biroz aybdorlik hissi foyda keltiradi.
08:32
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
08:33
Some people got 10 percent.
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Baʼzilarga 10% qoʻshimcha pul taklif qildik.
08:35
"Save up to a hundred shillings, we'll give you 10 percent."
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"100 shilling saqlab qoʻying va biz sizga uning 10% ini qoʻshamiz"
08:38
Some people got 20 percent.
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Baʼzilarga 20% dedik.
08:40
Some people got also 10 percent and 20 percent,
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Baʼzilarga ham 10%, ham 20% foyda taklif qilindi.
08:42
but they got it with loss aversion.
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Biroq unda yoʻqotishdan qoʻrquv holati aralashgandi.
08:45
What is loss aversion?
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Bu nima degani?
Yoʻqotishdan qoʻrqish nazariyasiga koʻra, bizning yoʻqotishdan qoʻrquvimiz
08:46
Loss aversion is the idea that we hate losing
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08:48
more than we enjoy gaining.
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foydadan oladigan zavqdan kuchliroq.
08:50
Now, think about somebody who is in a 10-percent condition
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Keling, 10% foyda belgilangan bir kishini tasavvur qilamiz
08:53
and they put 40 shillings in.
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U 40 shilling saqlab qoʻydi.
08:55
They put 40 shillings, we give them four more,
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Qoidaga muvofiq, unga yana 4 shilling beramiz
08:57
they say thank you very much.
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U katta rahmat aytadi.
08:59
That person gave up six.
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Biroq u 6 shilling yoʻqotdi.
09:00
They could have gotten six more if they gave a hundred,
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Agar u 100 shilling saqlab qoʻyganida, yana 6 shilling olardi
09:03
but they don't see it.
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Biroq u buni anglab yetmadi.
Endi biz foizni oldindan berib qoʻyadigan boʻldik.
09:05
So we created what we call pre-match.
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09:07
We put the 10 shillings in at the beginning of the week.
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Haftaning boshida unga 10 shilling koʻrsatamiz va
"bular seni kutayapti" deb aytamiz.
09:10
We said, "It's waiting for you!"
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09:11
And then if somebody puts 40 in, we say, "Oh, you put 40 in,
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Agar ular 40 shilling saqlaganini koʻrsak, aytamiz:
"Voy atigi 40 shillingmi? Unda faqat 4 shilling berib, 6 tasini qaytaramiz"
09:14
we're leaving four, and we're taking six back."
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09:17
So in both cases, pre-match or post-match,
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Foizni oldin yo keyin berganimizda ham
09:20
people get 10 percent.
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ular 10% foyda olishyapti.
09:22
But in the pre-match,
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Biroq foyda boshida koʻrsatilsa,
09:23
they see the money they did not match leaving their account.
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ular oʻzlari olishi mumkin boʻlgan, ammo yoʻqotgan pulni koʻrishadi.
Xoʻsh, biz xat joʻnatishni, uni bolalari yozgandek yozishni, boshda yo oxirida
09:27
So we have text, text from kids, 10 percent, 20 percent,
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09:30
pre-match, post-match.
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10-20% foyda berishni sinab koʻrdik.
09:32
And we had one more condition.
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Bizda yana bir usul bor edi.
09:34
It was a coin about this size,
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Bu mana shunday kattalikdagi tanga edi.
09:36
with 24 numbers written on it.
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Unda 24gacha raqamlar bor edi.
09:39
And we asked them to put the coin somewhere in their hut,
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Ularga tangani kulbasining bir chetiga qoʻyishni aytdik.
09:42
and every week, take a knife and scratch the number for that week --
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Har hafta tangadagi sonlardan birining ustidan chizib borishdi.
09:46
week one, two, three, four --
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1-hafta, 2-hafta, 3-hafta, 4
09:48
scratch it like a minus if they didn't save
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Agar shu hafta pul saqlab qoʻyishmasa, "-" belgisi,
09:50
and scratch it up and down if they saved.
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agar pul saqlab qoʻyishsa, "/" belgisini qoʻyishlari kerak edi
09:53
Now, think to yourself:
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Endi taxmin qiling:
09:55
Which one of those methods do you think worked the best?
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qay bir usul koʻproq samara berdi?
09:58
Text, text from the kids, 10 percent, 20 percent,
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Xat, bolalardan xat, 10%, 20%
10:00
beginning of the week, end of the week, and the coin?
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hafta boshi, hafta oxiri yo tanga?
10:03
I'll tell you what the average people think.
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Sizga oʻrtacha odam qanday fikrdaligini aytaman.
10:05
We've done these studies of prediction,
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Biz AQSh va Keniyaliklar ichida
10:07
both in the US and in Kenya.
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shu borada soʻrovnoma oʻtkazdik.
10:09
People think that 20 percent will get a lot of action,
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Ularga koʻra, 20% ning taʼsiri 10% dan koʻra
10:12
10 percent less,
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koʻproq boʻladi.
10:13
the rest of it will do nothing --
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Qolganlarining foydasi yoʻq:
10:15
kids, coin, doesn't matter.
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bolalar, tanga – foydasiz.
10:19
People think loss aversion will have a small effect.
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Odamlarning fikricha, yoʻqotishdan qoʻrqishning ham taʼsiri kam
10:22
What actually happened?
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Aslida nima boʻldi?
10:24
Sending a text reminder once a week
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Haftada bir marta xat joʻnatish
10:27
helps a lot.
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ancha foyda berdi.
10:28
Good news!
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Yaxshi-a!
10:30
This program lasted six months. People forget. Reminding people is great.
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Dastur 6 oy davom etdi. Odamlarga eslatib turishning foydasi bor.
Haftaning oxirida 10% qoʻshimcha berish undan sal samaraliroq boʻldi.
10:34
Ten percent at the end of the week helped some more.
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10:37
Financial incentives work.
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Demak, moliyaviy ragʻbat ham ish berdi.
10:39
Twenty percent at the end of the week -- just like 10 percent, no difference.
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Hafta oxirida 20% berishning 10% dan farqi yoʻq.
10:43
Ten percent in the beginning of the week
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Haftaning boshida 10% berish
10:45
helps some more.
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avvalgilaridan samaraliroq.
10:46
Loss aversion works.
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Yoʻqotish qoʻrquvi ishlaydi.
10:48
Twenty percent in the beginning of the week,
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Hafta boshida 20% bersakchi?
10:50
just like 10 percent in the beginning of the week, no difference.
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Farqi yoʻq: natija oʻsha-oʻsha
10:53
And the text message from the kids was just as effective
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Bolalar nomidan xat yozish
10:56
as 20 percent plus loss aversion --
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20% li yoʻqotish xavfidan ham samaraliroq chiqdi.
10:59
which is amazing, right?
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Ajoyib-a?
11:01
It's amazing how motivating messages from kids were.
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Bolalardan xatlarning qanchalik ruhlantiruvchi ekanligi hayratlanarli.
11:04
And one conclusion is we don't use kids enough.
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Bundan xulosa: biz bolalarimizdan yetarlicha foydalanmaymiz.
11:07
(Laughter)
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(Kulgu)
11:09
And, of course, I don't mean in a child labor sense.
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Albatta, bolalar mehnatini nazarda tutmayabman.
Biroq ota-ona va farzand munosabatlarini koʻrsangiz,
11:16
But if you think about parents and their kids,
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11:18
we are the best that we can for our kids,
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biz bolalarimiz uchun hamma narsa qilamiz,
ularning kelajagi haqida oʻylaymiz.
11:21
and we think about the future,
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11:22
and I think we should think
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Oʻylashimcha,
11:24
about how to use that amazing source of motivation
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biz kerakli maqsadga erishish uchun bolalarimizdan
11:27
to get parents to behave in a better way.
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ruhlantiruvchi vosita sifatida foydalanishimiz mumkin.
11:30
But the big surprise of this study was the coin.
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Biroq tadqiqotning eng ajablanarli jihati tanga bilan bogʻliq.
11:33
The coin basically doubled savings compared to everything else.
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Tanga boshqa usullardan ikki baravar koʻproq pul asrashga undadi.
11:37
And now the question is: Why? What was it about the coin?
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Endi savol:nega? Tanganing nimasi bor edi?
11:41
So I'll tell you how I started thinking about the coin,
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Tanga haqida qanday oʻylay boshlaganimni aytaman,
11:43
and then we'll come back to it.
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keyin yana shu joyga qaytamiz.
11:45
So you know, when I do research on, let's say, buying coffee,
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Men, aytaylik, kofe sotib olish haqida izlanish qilsam,
11:48
I don't need to go anywhere. I can sit in my office.
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hech qayerga chiqishim shartmas– ofisimda oʻtiraveraman.
11:50
I've bought enough coffee. I know how it works.
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Koʻp marta kofe sotib olganman, qanday ishlashini bilaman.
11:52
The details, I'm familiar with.
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1936
Vaziyat bilan tanishman.
11:54
When you do research in some of the poorest places in the world,
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Dunyodagi eng qashshoq joylar haqida izlanish oʻtkazganda esa,
11:58
you have to go and visit and see what's going on
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u yerga borib, nimalar boʻlayotganini oʻrganish kerak.
12:00
and get some insight about how the system works.
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U yerda tizim qanday ishlashini bilish kerak.
12:03
And on that particular day,
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Bir kuni
12:04
I'm in a place called Soweto in South Africa,
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Janubiy Afrikaning Soveto nomli joyida edim.
12:07
and I'm sitting in a place that sells funeral insurance.
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3623
Janoza sugʻurtasi sotiladigan joyda edim.
12:11
You know, in the US people spend crazy amounts of money on weddings?
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AQShdagi aholi toʻylar uchun juda koʻp sarflashini bilamiz-a?
12:15
In South Africa, it's funerals.
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2007
Janubiy Afrikada, bu – janozalar.
12:18
People spend up to a year or two years of income on funerals.
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4984
Odamlar 1-2 yillik daromadini janozalar uchun sarflashadi.
12:23
And I sit in this place --
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U yerda oʻtirar ekanman...
12:26
by the way, before you judge the South Africans as being irrational with this,
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aytgancha, Janubiy Afrikaliklarni irratsional deyishingizdan oldin
12:31
I just want to remind you
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sizlarga shuni eslatib oʻtmoqchiman:
12:32
that spending a lot of money on funerals compared to weddings,
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3304
ha,toʻyga nisbatan janozaga koʻproq pul sarflashar,
lekin ular hayotida 1 marta janozasi boʻlishini aniq bilishadi.
12:36
at least you know for sure you only have one.
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12:38
(Laughter)
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3043
(Kulgu)
12:48
OK, so I sit in this place that sells funeral insurance.
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Xoʻsh, janoza sugʻurtasi sotadigan joyda oʻtiribman-a?
12:53
And this guy comes in with his son -- his son is about 12 --
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3971
Bir kishi oʻzining 12 yashar bolasi bilan kelib qoldi.
12:57
and he buys funeral insurance for a week.
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3259
U 1 haftalik janoza sugʻurtasini sotib oldi.
13:00
It will cover 90 percent of his funeral expense
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Agar u kelasi 7 kun ichida vafot etsa,
13:03
only if he dies in the next seven days.
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2156
sugʻurta janozasining 90%ini qoplab beradi.
13:06
Right? These are very poor people, they buy small amounts of insurance
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Odamlar kambagʼalliklari uchun kam miqdorda sugʻurta,
13:09
and small amount of soap and such.
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1661
kam miqdorda sovun v.b sotib olishadi.
13:11
And he gets that certificate,
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1803
U sugʻurtani oldi va
13:13
and in a very ceremonious way, he gives it to his son.
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oʻta tantanavor harakatlar bilan uni bolasiga berdi.
13:16
And as he gives it to his son, I think to myself, why the ceremony?
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Ularni kuzatar ekanman, "bu tantanavorlik nimaga ekan" dedim.
13:19
What is this father doing?
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Bu ota nima qilyapti?
13:21
Now, think about the breadwinner that decides on that particular day
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Tasavvur qiling, oila boquvchisi pulning
13:25
to direct some money into insurance or savings.
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2420
bir qismini sugʻurta uchun sarfladi.
13:28
What is the family going to see tonight?
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2341
Bugun kechasi oilada nima boʻladi?
13:31
They're going to see less.
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1570
Ovqat odatdagidan kam boʻladi.
13:33
Right? At that level of poverty, there'll be less food, less kerosene, less water --
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4058
Kambagʻallikning bu darajasida,ular kam ovqat, kam kerosin, kam suv koʻrishadi
13:37
something less tonight.
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1855
Demak, shu kuni nimadir kam.
13:39
And what his father was doing and what our coin was trying to do
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3263
Bu ota va bizning tanga bir narsani aytmoqchi edi:
13:42
is to say, yes, there's less food on the table,
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2568
ha, bugun stolda ovqat kamdir.
13:45
but there's another activity.
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1647
Lekin, bu yerda boshqa vaziyat ham bor.
13:47
You see, what happened is, there are many good, important economic activities,
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3790
Koʻrib turganingizdek, iqtisodiyotda saqlab qoʻyish va sugʻurtaga oʻxshash
13:51
like savings and insurance, that are invisible.
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2528
muhim, samarali, ammo koʻzga koʻrinmas vaziyatlar bor.
13:54
And now the question is: How do we make them visible?
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2879
Muammo ularni qanday qilib koʻrinarli qilishda.
13:58
So let's go back to our rocket model.
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3732
Keling, raketamiz modeliga qaytamiz.
14:02
We have to, first of all, look at the system
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2274
Dastlab, tizimni koʻzdan kechirib,
14:04
and see where there's little things we can fix, with friction,
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3699
muvozanatsizlik tugʻdirayotgan qismlarni qidirib chiqamiz.
14:08
where is there that we can remove friction?
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2356
Agar boʻlsa, bu tengsizlikni tuzatamiz.
14:10
And then the next thing we want to do is to think broadly about the system,
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3852
Keyingi ishimiz tizimning kattaroq rasmini tasavvur qilishdir.
14:14
and say: What other motivations can we bring in?
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3383
Savol beramiz: "Qanday yoqilgʻi quyib, quvvatni oshirishimiz mumkin?
14:18
And that's a much more difficult exercise,
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2022
Bu esa eng qiyin masalalardan biri.
Biz nima eng koʻp samara berishini har doim ham topa olmaymiz.
14:20
and we don't always know what would work best.
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2522
14:22
Is it going to be money? Is it going to be loss aversion?
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Bu pulmi? Yoʻqotishdan qoʻrqish nazariyasimi?
14:25
Is it going to be something that is visible?
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2079
Bu koʻzga koʻrinarli boshqa omilmi?
14:27
We don't know, and we have to try different things.
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Aniq bilmaymiz. Shuning uchun ham hammasini sinab koʻramiz.
14:30
We also have to realize that our intuition sometimes misleads us.
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3066
Shuni ham inobatga olish kerakki, baʼzan intuitsiyamiz bizni aldashi mumkin.
14:33
We don't always necessarily know what would work the best.
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3377
Biz har doim ham qaysi yoʻl yaxshi ishlashini bila olmaymiz.
14:37
So if we think about this gap
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Bizning imkoniyatlarimiz chegarasi va
hozir kimligimizning orasidagi farqqa eʼtibor qaratar ekanmiz,
14:39
between where we could be and where we are,
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14:41
it's a really sad thing to see this gap and to think about it.
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bu farqni koʻrib turib, u haqida oʻylash juda tushkunli.
14:44
But the good news is, there's lots we can do.
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Lekin yaxshi xabar ham bor: biz koʻp narsa qila olamiz.
14:47
Some of the changes are easy, some of the changes are more complex.
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Baʼzi oʻzgarishlar oson, baʼzilari mushkulroq.
Ammo har bir muammoni birma-bir yengib oʻta olamiz.
14:51
But if we'll attack each problem directly,
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14:53
not by just providing more information to people
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Shunchaki odamlarni bundan xabardor qilib emas,
14:57
but trying to change the friction,
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qarama-qarshilikni kamaytirish,
14:59
add motivation,
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motivatsiya qoʻshish bilan.
15:00
I think we can ...
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Menimcha, bu qoʻlimizdan keladi.
15:01
Can we close the gap? No.
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Oradagi farqni yoʻqotishning iloji bormi? Yoʻq.
15:03
But can we get much better? Absolutely, yes.
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Lekin biz yaxshiroq boʻla olamizmi? Ha.
15:06
Thank you very much.
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Eʼtiboringiz uchun katta rahmat
15:07
(Applause)
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(Qarsaklar)
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