Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

Prevodilac: Sandrina Dimitrijevic Lektor: Ana Zivanovic-Nenadovic

I didn't always love unintended consequences,

Nisam uvek voleo nenamerne posledice,

but I've really learned to appreciate them.

ali naučio sam da ih cenim.

I've learned that they're really the essence

Naučio sam da one predstavljaju suštinu

of what makes for progress,

progresa,

even when they seem to be terrible.

čak i kada se čine užasnim.

And I'd like to review

I ja želim da ocenim

just how unintended consequences

kako nenameravane posledice

play the part that they do.

igraju svoju ulogu.

Let's go to 40,000 years before the present,

Hajde da se vratimo u period pre 40 hiljada godina,

to the time of the cultural explosion,

u vreme kulturne ekspolozije,

when music, art, technology,

kada su muzika, umetnost, tehnologija,

so many of the things that we're enjoying today,

mnoge stvare u kojima danas uživamo,

so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED

mnoge od stvari koje se prikazuju na TED-u,

were born.

bile stvorene.

And the anthropologist Randall White

Antropolog, Randal Vajt, je

has made a very interesting observation:

zapazio nešto veoma zanimljivo:

that if our ancestors

da su naši preci

40,000 years ago

pre 40 hiljada godina

had been able to see

mogli da vide

what they had done,

šta su učinili,

they wouldn't have really understood it.

ne bi to stvarno razumeli.

They were responding

Oni su reagovali

to immediate concerns.

na trenutne potrebe.

They were making it possible for us

Oni su nama omogućavali

to do what they do,

da radimo ono što oni rade,

and yet, they didn't really understand

ali ipak, nisu zapravo razumevali

how they did it.

kako su to uradili.

Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present.

Sada idemo u period 10 hiljada godina pre sadašnjosti.

And this is when it really gets interesting.

I tada stvaru postaju interesantne.

What about the domestication of grains?

Šta je sa odomaćivanjem žitarica?

What about the origins of agriculture?

Šta je sa nastankom poljoprivrede?

What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago

Šta bi naši preci pre 10 hiljada godina

have said

rekli

if they really had technology assessment?

da su zaista imali pomoć tehnologije?

And I could just imagine the committees

I ja sada mogu da zamislim odbore

reporting back to them

koji podnose izveštaje

on where agriculture was going to take humanity,

da će poljoprivreda da preovlada čovečanstvom,

at least in the next few hundred years.

barem u narednih nekoliko stotina godina.

It was really bad news.

To je zaista bila loša vest

First of all, worse nutrition,

Pre svega, lošija ishrana

maybe shorter life spans.

možda kraći životni vek.

It was simply awful for women.

To je bilo naprosto užasno za žene.

The skeletal remains from that period

Ostaci skeleta iz tog perioda

have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night.

pokazuju da su one mlele žito, od jutra do sutra.

And politically, it was awful.

Politički je takođe bilo loše.

It was the beginning of a much higher degree

To je bio početak mnogo višeg stepena

of inequality among people.

nejednakosti među ljudima.

If there had been rational technology assessment then,

Da je tada bilo racionalnog vrednovanja tehnologije,

I think they very well might have said,

ja mislim da bi oni verovatno rekli,

"Let's call the whole thing off."

"Hajde da odustanemo od cele ove ideje."

Even now, our choices are having unintended effects.

Čak i danas, naši izbori imaju neočekivane posledice.

Historically, for example,

Istorijski, na primer,

chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist

štapići za jelo - sudeći po japanskom antropologu

who wrote a dissertation about it

koji je o tome napisao disertaciju

at the University of Michigan --

na Mičigen Univerzitetu -

resulted in long-term changes

su doveli do dugoročnih promena

in the dentition, in the teeth,

u nicanju zuba, u zubima

of the Japanese public.

kod japanske populacije.

And we are also changing our teeth right now.

I mi danas takođe menjamo svoje zube.

There is evidence

Postoje dokazi

that the human mouth and teeth

da se ljudska usta i zubi

are growing smaller all the time.

vremenom sve više smanjuju.

That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence.

To nije naročito loša nenameravana posledica.

But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal,

Ali ja mislim da bi sa tačke gledišta Neandertalca,

there would have been a lot of disapproval

bilo mnogo nezadovoljstva

of the wimpish choppers that we now have.

zbog ovih slabih zubića koje sada imamo.

So these things are kind of relative

Dakle, sve ove stvari zavise

to where you or your ancestors happen to stand.

od toga gde mi ili naši preci, stojimo.

In the ancient world

U drevnom svetu

there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences,

bilo je veoma mnogo poštovanja za nenameravane posledice,

and there was a very healthy sense of caution,

i postojala je jedna zdrava doza opreza,

reflected in the Tree of Knowledge,

koja se ogledala u Drvetu Znanja,

in Pandora's Box,

u Pandorinoj kutiji

and especially in the myth of Prometheus

i naročito u mitu o Prometeju

that's been so important

koji je bio veoma važan

in recent metaphors about technology.

u nedavnim metaforama o tehnologiji.

And that's all very true.

I sve je to veoma tačno.

The physicians of the ancient world --

Lekari drevnog sveta -

especially the Egyptians,

naročito Egipćani,

who started medicine as we know it --

koji su i osnovali modernu medicinu -

were very conscious

su bili veoma svesni

of what they could and couldn't treat.

onoga što mogu i ne mogu da leče.

And the translations of the surviving texts say,

Prevodi očuvanih tekstova govore,

"This I will not treat. This I cannot treat."

"Ovo neću da lečim. Ovo ne mogu da lečim."

They were very conscious.

Bili su veoma svesni.

So were the followers of Hippocrates.

Isto tako su bili svesni i Hipokratovi sledbenici.

The Hippocratic manuscripts also --

Hipokratovi spisi takođe -

repeatedly, according to recent studies --

u više navrata, sudeći po nedavnim studijama -

show how important it is not to do harm.

pokazuju kako je važno ne nanositi štetu.

More recently,

U novije vreme,

Harvey Cushing,

Harvi Kušing,

who really developed neurosurgery as we know it,

koji je razvio modernu neurohirugiju,

who changed it from a field of medicine

i promenio je iz područja medicine

that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery

koje je imalo najveći procenat smrti od operacija

to one in which there was a hopeful outlook,

u područje gde postoje pozitivni izgledi,

he was very conscious

je bio veoma svestan

that he was not always going to do the right thing.

da neće uvek činiti ono što je ispravno.

But he did his best,

Ali je davao sve od sebe

and he kept meticulous records

i vodio je detaljne beleške

that let him transform that branch of medicine.

koje su mu pomogle da promeni tu oblast medicine.

Now if we look forward a bit

Sada ako malo pogledamo još unapred

to the 19th century,

u 19. vek,

we find a new style of technology.

naći ćemo novu vrstu tehnologije.

What we find is,

Ono što nalazimo,

no longer simple tools,

nisu više jednostavni alati,

but systems.

već sistemi.

We find more and more

Nalazimo sve više i više

complex arrangements of machines

kompleksnih postrojenja

that make it harder and harder

koja nam sve više otežavaju

to diagnose what's going on.

da ustanovimo šta se stvarno dešava.

And the first people who saw that

Prvi ljudi koji su to primetili

were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century,

su bili telegrafisti sredine 19. veka,

who were the original hackers.

koji su bili prvobitni hakeri.

Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable

Tomas Edison bi se osećao veoma udobno

in the atmosphere of a software firm today.

u atmosferi današnje softverske firme.

And these hackers had a word

Tadašnji hakeri su imali reč

for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems

za misteriozne greške u telegrafskom sistemu

that they called bugs.

koje su zvali bube (bagovi).

That was the origin of the word "bug."

Tako je nastala reč "bag".

This consciousness, though,

Ova svest je, ipak,

was a little slow to seep through the general population,

sporo dopirala do opšte populacije,

even people who were very, very well informed.

čak i do ljudi, koji su bili veoma dobro informisani.

Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain,

Semjuel Klemens, odnosno Mark Tven,

was a big investor

je bio veliki investitor

in the most complex machine of all times --

u najsloženiju mašinu svih vremena -

at least until 1918 --

barem do 1918. -

registered with the U.S. Patent Office.

registrovane u Kancelariji za patente SAD-a.

That was the Paige typesetter.

To je bio Pejdž slovoslagač.

The Paige typesetter

Pejdž slovoslagač

had 18,000 parts.

je imao 18 hiljada delova.

The patent had 64 pages of text

Patent je sadržao 64 stranice teksta

and 271 figures.

i 271 grafikon.

It was such a beautiful machine

Bila je to prekrasna mašina

because it did everything that a human being did

zato što je radila sve što je i čovek radio

in setting type --

dok je slagao slova -

including returning the type to its place,

uključujući i vraćanje tipki na svoje mesto,

which was a very difficult thing.

što je bilo veoma teško.

And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting,

I Mark Tven, koji je znao sve o slaganju slova,

really was smitten by this machine.

je bio oboren s nogu ovom mašinom.

Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one,

Nažalost, bio je oboren na više načina,

because it made him bankrupt,

zato što je zbog nje bankrotirao

and he had to tour the world speaking

i morao je da putuje svetom i drži govore

to recoup his money.

kako bi povratio novac.

And this was an important thing

I to je bila važna stvar

about 19th century technology,

kod tehnologije u 19. veku,

that all these relationships among parts

da zbog velikog broja odnosa između delova

could make the most brilliant idea fall apart,

i najbolje ideje mogu propasti,

even when judged by the most expert people.

čak i kada su ih procenili najveći eksperati.

Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century

Međutim, početkom 20. veka još nešto je

that made things even more complicated.

dodatno zakomplikovalo stvari.

And that was that safety technology itself

To je činjenica da bi i sama tehnologija zaštite

could be a source of danger.

mogla predstavljati izvor opasnosti.

The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries,

Lekcija koju su mnogi savremenici naučili od Titanika,

was that you must have enough lifeboats

bila je da morate imati dovoljno čamaca za spasavanje

for everyone on the ship.

za sve ljude na brodu.

And this was the result

To je bio uzrok

of the tragic loss of lives

tragičnog gubitka života

of people who could not get into them.

ljudi koji nisu mogli da stanu u čamce.

However, there was another case, the Eastland,

Međutim, postojao je još jedan slučaj, Istlend,

a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915,

brod koji je potonuo u luci Čikago 1915.,

and it killed 841 people --

kada je poginula 841 osoba -

that was 14 more

to je 14 ljudi više

than the passenger toll of the Titanic.

od žrtava na Titaniku.

The reason for it, in part, was

Uzrok su delimično bili

the extra life boats that were added

dodatni čamci za spasavanje

that made this already unstable ship

koji su već nestabilan brod

even more unstable.

učinili dodatno nestabilnim.

And that again proves

I to opet dokazuje

that when you're talking about unintended consequences,

da kada govorimo o nenameravanim posledicama,

it's not that easy to know

nije lako znati

the right lessons to draw.

koje su prave lekcije koje treba izvući.

It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded,

To je više pitanje sistema, kako je brod napunjen,

the ballast and many other things.

teret, i mnoge druge stvari.

So the 20th century, then,

Dakle, 20. vek je,

saw how much more complex reality was,

pokazao kako je realnost dosta složenija,

but it also saw a positive side.

ali to ima i pozitivnu stranu.

It saw that invention

Vidimo da inovativnost

could actually benefit from emergencies.

može napredovati u hitnim situacijama.

It could benefit

Može napredovati

from tragedies.

u tragedijama.

And my favorite example of that --

Moj omiljeni primer toga -

which is not really widely known

što zapravo nije mnogo poznato

as a technological miracle,

kao čudo tehnologije,

but it may be one of the greatest of all times,

ali može biti najveće čudo svih vremena,

was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War.

je porast korišćenja penicilina u Drugom svetskom ratu.

Penicillin was discovered in 1928,

Penicilin je otkriven 1928.

but even by 1940,

komercijalno i medicinski upotrebljive količine

no commercially and medically useful quantities of it

se nisu proizvodile

were being produced.

čak do 1940.

A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it.

Veliki broj farmaceutskih kuća je radio na tome.

They were working on it independently,

Radile su nezavisno jedna od druge,

and they weren't getting anywhere.

a ništa nisu postizale.

And the Government Research Bureau

Tako je vladina Kancelarija za istraživanje

brought representatives together

sakupila sve predstavnike na jednom mestu

and told them that this is something

i rekla im da je to nešto

that has to be done.

što mora da se uradi.

And not only did they do it,

I ne samo da su to učinili,

but within two years,

već su za dve godine,

they scaled up penicillin

unapredili penicilin

from preparation in one-liter flasks

od pripreme u litarskim posudama

to 10,000-gallon vats.

do buradi od 38 hiljada litara.

That was how quickly penicillin was produced

Tako se penicilin brzo proizvodio

and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time.

i postao jedan od najvećih medicinskih dostignuća svih vremena.

In the Second World War, too,

U Drugom svetskom ratu,

the existence

pojava

of solar radiation

sunčevog zračenja

was demonstrated by studies of interference

je bila dokazana izučavanjem ometanja

that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain.

koje su zabeležile radarske stanice u Veliko Britaniji.

So there were benefits in calamities --

Dakle neke su koristi proizašle iz nevolja -

benefits to pure science,

koristi za čistu nauku,

as well as to applied science

kao i za primenjenu nauku

and medicine.

i medicinu.

Now when we come to the period after the Second World War,

Kada dođemo do perioda posle Drugog svetskog rata,

unintended consequences get even more interesting.

nenameravane posledice postaju sve interesantnije.

And my favorite example of that

Moj omiljeni primer toga

occurred beginning in 1976,

se desio početkom 1976.

when it was discovered

kada je bilo otkriveno

that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease

da je bakterija koja je uzrok Legionarske bolesti

had always been present in natural waters,

uvek bila pristuna u prirodnim vodama,

but it was the precise temperature of the water

ali da je upravo temperatura vode

in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems

u sistemima za grejanje, ventilaciju i klimatizaciju

that raised the right temperature

dovela do tačne temperature

for the maximum reproduction

za maksimalnu reprodukciju

of Legionella bacillus.

Legionela bakterije.

Well, technology to the rescue.

Dakle, zovemo tehnologiju upomoć.

So chemists got to work,

Hemičari su se bacili na posao,

and they developed a bactericide

i razvili baktericid

that became widely used in those systems.

koje je postao naširoko korišćen u tim sistemima.

But something else happened in the early 1980s,

Ali još nešto se desilo u ranim osamdesetim,

and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic

a to je bila misteriozna epidemija

of failures of tape drives

neuspeha čitača kartica

all over the United States.

širom Sjedinjenih Američkih Država.

And IBM, which made them,

Kompanija IBM, koja ih je proizvodila,

just didn't know what to do.

nije znala šta da radi.

They commissioned a group of their best scientists

Sazvali su grupu najboljih naučnika

to investigate,

da istraže situaciju

and what they found was

i ono što su pronašli je

that all these tape drives

da su svi čitači kartica

were located near ventilation ducts.

bili smešteni pored ventilacionih kanala.

What happened was the bactericide was formulated

Baktericid se mešao

with minute traces of tin.

sa sitnim česticama kalaja.

And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads

Ovi delovi kalaja su se formirali pored glave čitača

and were crashing the tape heads.

uzrokujući njihov kvar.

So they reformulated the bactericide.

Zato su oni reformulisali baktericid.

But what's interesting to me

Ali ono što je meni bilo zanimljivo

is that this was the first case

je da je to bio prvi slučaj

of a mechanical device

gde je mehanički uređaj

suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease.

oboleo, barem indirektno, od ljudske bolesti.

So it shows that we're really all in this together.

To, dakle, pokazuje da smo svi u ovome zajedno.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

In fact, it also shows something interesting,

U stvari, takođe pokazuje nešto zanimljivo,

that although our capabilities and technology

da iako naše sposobonosti i tehnologija

have been expanding geometrically,

napreduju geometrijskom progresijom,

unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior,

nažalost, naša sposobnost da na njih dugoročno utičemo

which has also been increasing,

se takođe povećava,

has been increasing only arithmetically.

ali samo aritmetičkom progresijom.

So one of the characteristic problems of our time

Dakle jedan od karakterističnih problema našeg vremena

is how to close this gap

je kako premostiti jaz

between capabilities and foresight.

između sposobnosti i predviđanja.

One other very positive consequence

Druga, veoma pozitivna posledica,

of 20th century technology, though,

tehnologije 20. veka,

was the way in which other kinds of calamities

je način na koji druge vrste katastrofa

could lead to positive advances.

mogu da dovedu do pozitivnog napretka.

There are two historians of business

Postoje dva istoričara poslovanja

at the University of Maryland,

na Univerzitetu Merilend,

Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch,

Brent Goldfarb i Dejvid Kirš,

who have done some extremely interesting work,

koji su uradili izuzetno zanimljive radove,

much of it still unpublished,

delom još uvek neobjavljene,

on the history of major innovations.

o istoriji značajnih inovacija.

They have combined the list of major innovations,

Sastavili su listu velikih inovacija,

and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade,

i otkrili su da najveći broj, najbolja decenija,

for fundamental innovations,

za temeljne inovacije,

as reflected in all of the lists that others have made --

kao što se vidi na listama koje su napravili drugi -

a number of lists that they have merged --

listama koje su sjedinili -

was the Great Depression.

je bio period Velike Depresije.

And nobody knows just why this was so,

Niko ne zna zašto je to bilo tako,

but one story can reflect something of it.

ali jedna priča može da odrazi nešto od toga.

It was the origin of the Xerox copier,

To je bio začetak "Xerox" fotokopir-aparata,

which celebrated its 50th anniversary

koji je proslavio pedesetogodišnjicu

last year.

proše godine.

And Chester Carlson, the inventor,

Čester Karlson, izumitelj,

was a patent attorney.

je bio advokat za patente.

He really was not intending

On nije zaista nameravao

to work in patent research,

da radi na istraživanju patenata,

but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job.

ali nije mogao da nađe drugi tehnički posao.

So this was the best job he could get.

Dakle, ovo je bio najbolji posao koji je mogao da nađe.

He was upset by the low quality and high cost

Bio je uznemirem zbog lošeg kvaliteta i visokih troškova

of existing patent reproductions,

postojeće reprodukcije patenata,

and so he started to develop

i zato je počeo da razvija

a system of dry photocopying,

sistem suvog fotokopiranja,

which he patented in the late 1930s --

koji je patentirao krajem '30-ih godina -

and which became the first dry photocopier

i koji ie je postao prvi suvi fotokopir

that was commercially practical

komercijalno korišćen

in 1960.

u 1960. godini.

So we see that sometimes,

Dakle vidimo da ponekad,

as a result of these dislocations,

kao rezultat ovih dislokacija,

as a result of people

kao rezultat toga da ljudi

leaving their original intended career

napuštaju svoje prvobitne karijere

and going into something else

i počinju se baviti nečim drugim

where their creativity could make a difference,

gde njihova kreativnost može imati značaja,

that depressions

da depresije

and all kinds of other unfortunate events

i svi drugi nesrećni događaji

can have a paradoxically stimulating effect

mogu imati paradoskalan stimulativan efekat

on creativity.

na kreativnost.

What does this mean?

Šta to znači?

It means, I think,

To znači, ja mislim,

that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities.

da živimo u vremenima neočekivanih mogućnosti.

Think of the financial world, for example.

Pomislite na svet finansija, na primer.

The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham,

Mentor Vorena Bafeta, Benjamin Grejem,

developed his system of value investing

je razvio svoj sistem vrednovanja investicija

as a result of his own losses

nakon što je sam pretrpeo gubitke

in the 1929 crash.

u velikom krahu 1929. godine.

And he published that book

I on je objavio knjigu

in the early 1930s,

ranih 1930-ih godina,

and the book still exists in further editions

i ta knjiga još uvek postoji u daljim izdanjima

and is still a fundamental textbook.

i predstavlja osnovni udžebnik.

So many important creative things can happen

Toliko mnogo važnih stvari može da se desi

when people learn from disasters.

kada ljudi uče iz katastrofa.

Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now --

Sada pomislite o velikim i malih epidemijama koje sada imamo -

bed bugs, killer bees, spam --

grinje, pčele ubice, spam -

and it's very possible that the solutions to those

i veoma je moguće da će se rešenja za njih

will really extend well beyond the immediate question.

proširiti dalje od osnovnih pitanja.

If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur,

Ako na primer, pomislimo na Luja Pastera,

who in the 1860s

koji je u 1860-im

was asked to study

bio zamoljen da prouči

the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry,

bolesti svilenih crva u industriji svile,

and his discoveries were really the beginning

i da su njegova otkrića zaista bila početak

of the germ theory of disease.

teorija klica bolesti.

So very often, some kind of disaster --

Dakle veoma često, neki oblik katastrofe

sometimes the consequence, for example,

ponekad i posledice, na primer

of over-cultivation of silk worms,

preterano uzgajanje svilenih crva,

which was a problem in Europe at the time --

koji je bio problem u tadašnjoj Evropi -

can be the key to something much bigger.

mogao je biti odgovor za nešto veće.

So this means

Dakle, ovo znači

that we need to take a different view

da moramo da imamo drugačiji pogled

of unintended consequences.

na nenameravane posledice.

We need to take a really positive view.

Moramo da gledamo pozitivno.

We need to see what they can do for us.

Moramo da vidimo šta one mogu da urade za nas.

We need to learn

Moramo da naučimo

from those figures that I mentioned.

iz ovih podataka koje sam pomenuo.

We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing,

Moramo da naučimo, od, na primer, doktora Kušinga,

who killed patients

koji je ubijao pacijente

in the course of his early operations.

tokom njegovih prvih operacija.

He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes.

Morao je pravi greške. Morao je da ih ima.

And he learned meticulously from his mistakes.

I učio je pedantno iz svojih grešaka.

And as a result,

Kao rezultat,

when we say, "This isn't brain surgery,"

kada kažemo: "Ovo nije operacija mozga,"

that pays tribute to how difficult it was

odajemo počast koliko je bilo teško

for anyone to learn from their mistakes

za nekoga da nauči iz svojih grešaka

in a field of medicine

u oblasti medicine

that was considered so discouraging in its prospects.

koja nije imala dobre izgleda za razvoj.

And we can also remember

Takođe možemo da se setimo

how the pharmaceutical companies

kako su farmacetuske kompanije

were willing to pool their knowledge,

bile voljne da udruže svoje znanje,

to share their knowledge,

da dele svoje znanje,

in the face of an emergency,

u hitnoj situaciji,

which they hadn't really been for years and years.

što zapravo godinama nisu radile.

They might have been able to do it earlier.

Mogle su da to urade ranije.

The message, then, for me,

Poruka, stoga, za mene,

about unintended consequences

o nenameravanim posledicama

is chaos happens;

je da se haos dešava;

let's make better use of it.

hajde da ga iskoristimo na najbolji mogući način.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)