Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

44,129 views ・ 2011-09-06

TED


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00:15
I didn't always love unintended consequences,
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but I've really learned to appreciate them.
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I've learned that they're really the essence
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of what makes for progress,
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even when they seem to be terrible.
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And I'd like to review
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just how unintended consequences
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play the part that they do.
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Let's go to 40,000 years before the present,
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to the time of the cultural explosion,
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when music, art, technology,
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so many of the things that we're enjoying today,
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so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED
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were born.
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And the anthropologist Randall White
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has made a very interesting observation:
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that if our ancestors
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40,000 years ago
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had been able to see
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what they had done,
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they wouldn't have really understood it.
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They were responding
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to immediate concerns.
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They were making it possible for us
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to do what they do,
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and yet, they didn't really understand
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how they did it.
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Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present.
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And this is when it really gets interesting.
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What about the domestication of grains?
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What about the origins of agriculture?
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What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago
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have said
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if they really had technology assessment?
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And I could just imagine the committees
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reporting back to them
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on where agriculture was going to take humanity,
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at least in the next few hundred years.
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It was really bad news.
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First of all, worse nutrition,
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maybe shorter life spans.
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It was simply awful for women.
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The skeletal remains from that period
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have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night.
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And politically, it was awful.
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It was the beginning of a much higher degree
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of inequality among people.
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If there had been rational technology assessment then,
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I think they very well might have said,
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"Let's call the whole thing off."
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Even now, our choices are having unintended effects.
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Historically, for example,
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chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist
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who wrote a dissertation about it
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at the University of Michigan --
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resulted in long-term changes
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in the dentition, in the teeth,
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of the Japanese public.
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And we are also changing our teeth right now.
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There is evidence
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that the human mouth and teeth
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are growing smaller all the time.
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That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence.
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But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal,
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there would have been a lot of disapproval
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of the wimpish choppers that we now have.
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So these things are kind of relative
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to where you or your ancestors happen to stand.
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In the ancient world
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there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences,
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and there was a very healthy sense of caution,
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reflected in the Tree of Knowledge,
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in Pandora's Box,
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and especially in the myth of Prometheus
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that's been so important
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in recent metaphors about technology.
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And that's all very true.
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The physicians of the ancient world --
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especially the Egyptians,
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who started medicine as we know it --
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were very conscious
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of what they could and couldn't treat.
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And the translations of the surviving texts say,
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"This I will not treat. This I cannot treat."
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They were very conscious.
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So were the followers of Hippocrates.
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The Hippocratic manuscripts also --
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repeatedly, according to recent studies --
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show how important it is not to do harm.
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More recently,
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Harvey Cushing,
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who really developed neurosurgery as we know it,
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who changed it from a field of medicine
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that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery
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to one in which there was a hopeful outlook,
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he was very conscious
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that he was not always going to do the right thing.
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But he did his best,
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and he kept meticulous records
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that let him transform that branch of medicine.
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Now if we look forward a bit
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to the 19th century,
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we find a new style of technology.
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What we find is,
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no longer simple tools,
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but systems.
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We find more and more
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complex arrangements of machines
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that make it harder and harder
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to diagnose what's going on.
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And the first people who saw that
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were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century,
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who were the original hackers.
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Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable
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in the atmosphere of a software firm today.
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And these hackers had a word
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for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems
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that they called bugs.
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That was the origin of the word "bug."
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This consciousness, though,
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was a little slow to seep through the general population,
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even people who were very, very well informed.
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Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain,
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was a big investor
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in the most complex machine of all times --
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at least until 1918 --
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registered with the U.S. Patent Office.
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That was the Paige typesetter.
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The Paige typesetter
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had 18,000 parts.
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The patent had 64 pages of text
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and 271 figures.
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It was such a beautiful machine
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because it did everything that a human being did
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in setting type --
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including returning the type to its place,
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which was a very difficult thing.
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And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting,
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really was smitten by this machine.
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Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one,
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because it made him bankrupt,
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and he had to tour the world speaking
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to recoup his money.
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And this was an important thing
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about 19th century technology,
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that all these relationships among parts
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could make the most brilliant idea fall apart,
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even when judged by the most expert people.
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Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century
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that made things even more complicated.
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And that was that safety technology itself
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could be a source of danger.
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The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries,
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was that you must have enough lifeboats
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for everyone on the ship.
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And this was the result
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of the tragic loss of lives
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of people who could not get into them.
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However, there was another case, the Eastland,
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a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915,
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and it killed 841 people --
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that was 14 more
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than the passenger toll of the Titanic.
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The reason for it, in part, was
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the extra life boats that were added
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that made this already unstable ship
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even more unstable.
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And that again proves
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that when you're talking about unintended consequences,
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it's not that easy to know
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the right lessons to draw.
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It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded,
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the ballast and many other things.
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So the 20th century, then,
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saw how much more complex reality was,
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but it also saw a positive side.
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It saw that invention
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could actually benefit from emergencies.
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It could benefit
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from tragedies.
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And my favorite example of that --
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which is not really widely known
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as a technological miracle,
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but it may be one of the greatest of all times,
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was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War.
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Penicillin was discovered in 1928,
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but even by 1940,
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no commercially and medically useful quantities of it
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were being produced.
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A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it.
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They were working on it independently,
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and they weren't getting anywhere.
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And the Government Research Bureau
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brought representatives together
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and told them that this is something
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that has to be done.
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And not only did they do it,
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but within two years,
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they scaled up penicillin
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from preparation in one-liter flasks
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to 10,000-gallon vats.
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That was how quickly penicillin was produced
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and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time.
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In the Second World War, too,
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the existence
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of solar radiation
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was demonstrated by studies of interference
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that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain.
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So there were benefits in calamities --
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benefits to pure science,
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as well as to applied science
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and medicine.
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Now when we come to the period after the Second World War,
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unintended consequences get even more interesting.
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And my favorite example of that
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occurred beginning in 1976,
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when it was discovered
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that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease
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had always been present in natural waters,
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but it was the precise temperature of the water
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in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems
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that raised the right temperature
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for the maximum reproduction
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of Legionella bacillus.
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Well, technology to the rescue.
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So chemists got to work,
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and they developed a bactericide
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that became widely used in those systems.
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But something else happened in the early 1980s,
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and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic
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of failures of tape drives
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all over the United States.
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And IBM, which made them,
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just didn't know what to do.
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They commissioned a group of their best scientists
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to investigate,
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and what they found was
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that all these tape drives
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were located near ventilation ducts.
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What happened was the bactericide was formulated
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with minute traces of tin.
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And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads
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and were crashing the tape heads.
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So they reformulated the bactericide.
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But what's interesting to me
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is that this was the first case
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of a mechanical device
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suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease.
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So it shows that we're really all in this together.
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(Laughter)
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In fact, it also shows something interesting,
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that although our capabilities and technology
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have been expanding geometrically,
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unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior,
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which has also been increasing,
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has been increasing only arithmetically.
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So one of the characteristic problems of our time
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is how to close this gap
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between capabilities and foresight.
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One other very positive consequence
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of 20th century technology, though,
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was the way in which other kinds of calamities
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could lead to positive advances.
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There are two historians of business
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at the University of Maryland,
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Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch,
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who have done some extremely interesting work,
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much of it still unpublished,
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on the history of major innovations.
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They have combined the list of major innovations,
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and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade,
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for fundamental innovations,
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as reflected in all of the lists that others have made --
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a number of lists that they have merged --
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was the Great Depression.
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And nobody knows just why this was so,
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but one story can reflect something of it.
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It was the origin of the Xerox copier,
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which celebrated its 50th anniversary
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last year.
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And Chester Carlson, the inventor,
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was a patent attorney.
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He really was not intending
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to work in patent research,
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but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job.
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So this was the best job he could get.
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He was upset by the low quality and high cost
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of existing patent reproductions,
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and so he started to develop
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a system of dry photocopying,
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which he patented in the late 1930s --
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and which became the first dry photocopier
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that was commercially practical
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in 1960.
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So we see that sometimes,
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as a result of these dislocations,
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as a result of people
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leaving their original intended career
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and going into something else
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where their creativity could make a difference,
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that depressions
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and all kinds of other unfortunate events
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can have a paradoxically stimulating effect
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on creativity.
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What does this mean?
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It means, I think,
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that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities.
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Think of the financial world, for example.
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The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham,
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developed his system of value investing
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as a result of his own losses
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in the 1929 crash.
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And he published that book
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in the early 1930s,
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and the book still exists in further editions
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and is still a fundamental textbook.
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So many important creative things can happen
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when people learn from disasters.
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Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now --
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bed bugs, killer bees, spam --
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and it's very possible that the solutions to those
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will really extend well beyond the immediate question.
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If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur,
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who in the 1860s
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was asked to study
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the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry,
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and his discoveries were really the beginning
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of the germ theory of disease.
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So very often, some kind of disaster --
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sometimes the consequence, for example,
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14:39
of over-cultivation of silk worms,
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which was a problem in Europe at the time --
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can be the key to something much bigger.
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So this means
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that we need to take a different view
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of unintended consequences.
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We need to take a really positive view.
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We need to see what they can do for us.
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We need to learn
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from those figures that I mentioned.
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We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing,
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who killed patients
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in the course of his early operations.
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He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes.
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And he learned meticulously from his mistakes.
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And as a result,
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when we say, "This isn't brain surgery,"
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that pays tribute to how difficult it was
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for anyone to learn from their mistakes
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in a field of medicine
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that was considered so discouraging in its prospects.
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And we can also remember
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how the pharmaceutical companies
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were willing to pool their knowledge,
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to share their knowledge,
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in the face of an emergency,
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which they hadn't really been for years and years.
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They might have been able to do it earlier.
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The message, then, for me,
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about unintended consequences
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is chaos happens;
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let's make better use of it.
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Thank you very much.
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(Applause)
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