Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

翻译人员: Jiwei Qu 校对人员: Chunxiang Qian

I didn't always love unintended consequences,

我不总是喜欢无意识的后果

but I've really learned to appreciate them.

但是我真正的学会了去欣赏它们

I've learned that they're really the essence

我了解到它们是推动我们

of what makes for progress,

进步的本质

even when they seem to be terrible.

即便在它们看起来不招人喜欢的时候

And I'd like to review

我想回顾一下

just how unintended consequences

无意识后果

play the part that they do.

是如何起做到作用的

Let's go to 40,000 years before the present,

让我们追溯到距今40,000年前

to the time of the cultural explosion,

文化大爆炸时期

when music, art, technology,

回到当音乐，艺术，科技这类

so many of the things that we're enjoying today,

我们今天享用着的众多事物

so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED

我们在TED展示着的众多事物

were born.

诞生之时

And the anthropologist Randall White

人类学家 兰德尔·怀特

has made a very interesting observation:

有一个非常有趣的评论

that if our ancestors

如果我们的祖先

40,000 years ago

在40,000年前

had been able to see

就可以看到

what they had done,

他们做了什么

they wouldn't have really understood it.

他们不会真正理解

They were responding

他们只会对应对

to immediate concerns.

眼前之急

They were making it possible for us

他们为我们创造了继承发扬

to do what they do,

的可能性

and yet, they didn't really understand

可是，他们其实并不知道

how they did it.

是如何做的

Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present.

现在让我们回到距今10,000年前

And this is when it really gets interesting.

这是变得有趣的时期

What about the domestication of grains?

庄稼的规模种植？

What about the origins of agriculture?

农业的起源？

What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago

一万年前如果我们的祖先们有技术评估

have said

的能力

if they really had technology assessment?

他们会怎么说？

And I could just imagine the committees

我可以想象委员会

reporting back to them

会向他们汇报

on where agriculture was going to take humanity,

农业将把人类引向何处

at least in the next few hundred years.

至少在未来的几百年期间

It was really bad news.

那可是个坏消息

First of all, worse nutrition,

首先，更糟的营养

maybe shorter life spans.

也许更短的生命

It was simply awful for women.

农业规模化对于女性来说非常糟糕

The skeletal remains from that period

存留下来的当时人类骨骼显示

have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night.

他们当时日以继夜的碾磨谷物

And politically, it was awful.

从政治上看，这是糟糕的

It was the beginning of a much higher degree

这是更严重的人与人之间

of inequality among people.

不平等的开始

If there had been rational technology assessment then,

如果那时有一种理性的技术进行评估

I think they very well might have said,

我想他们很可能会说

"Let's call the whole thing off."

“这事儿还是算了吧”

Even now, our choices are having unintended effects.

即便现在，我们的选择都存在着无意识的效果

Historically, for example,

从历史角度看，举个例子

chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist

筷子--根据一位密西根大学

who wrote a dissertation about it

发表过相关论文的

at the University of Michigan --

日本人类学家的观点--

resulted in long-term changes

筷子导致了日本公众的

in the dentition, in the teeth,

齿系，牙齿

of the Japanese public.

发生了长期的变化

And we are also changing our teeth right now.

我们现在也在改变着我们的牙齿

There is evidence

有个证据显示

that the human mouth and teeth

人类的嘴和牙齿

are growing smaller all the time.

正在不断的变小

That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence.

这未必就是不好的无意识后果

But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal,

但是我认为站在尼安德特人的角度

there would have been a lot of disapproval

对我们不成大器的牙齿

of the wimpish choppers that we now have.

也许会有很多异议

So these things are kind of relative

因此这些事情是相对的

to where you or your ancestors happen to stand.

是基于你或你的祖先当时所处的位置所决定的

In the ancient world

在远古世界

there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences,

对无意识后果抱有很强的尊重感

and there was a very healthy sense of caution,

并且有一种非常健康的谨慎感

reflected in the Tree of Knowledge,

体现在智慧树上

in Pandora's Box,

体现潘多拉盒上

and especially in the myth of Prometheus

特别体现在普罗米修斯神话中

that's been so important

在近代关于科学的比喻中

in recent metaphors about technology.

是非常重要的

And that's all very true.

那都是非常真实的

The physicians of the ancient world --

古代的医生们--

especially the Egyptians,

特别是那些我们所了解的

who started medicine as we know it --

开始研究医学的埃及医生--

were very conscious

对于什么病能医治

of what they could and couldn't treat.

什么病不能治头脑是非常清醒的

And the translations of the surviving texts say,

保留下来的文字资料上写着

"This I will not treat. This I cannot treat."

“这我不能治，这个我不会治”

They were very conscious.

他们都非常明了

So were the followers of Hippocrates.

因此他们都是希波克拉底的追随者

The Hippocratic manuscripts also --

希波克拉底的手稿同样--

repeatedly, according to recent studies --

根据最近的研究，反复的--

show how important it is not to do harm.

说明不造成伤害是多么重要

More recently,

最近

Harvey Cushing,

哈维·库欣

who really developed neurosurgery as we know it,

他对神经外科起到了重大的推动作用

who changed it from a field of medicine

他把神经外科从一个会因为手术导致很多人

that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery

死亡的医学领域改变成为了一个

to one in which there was a hopeful outlook,

拥有着光明希望前景的领域

he was very conscious

他非常清楚

that he was not always going to do the right thing.

他不可能永远是正确的

But he did his best,

但是他尽了全力

and he kept meticulous records

并且总是一丝不苟

that let him transform that branch of medicine.

正是这些使他改变了这个医学分支

Now if we look forward a bit

现在如果我们在向前看一下

to the 19th century,

来到19世纪

we find a new style of technology.

我们会发现科技的新类型

What we find is,

那就是

no longer simple tools,

不再是单一工具

but systems.

而是系统

We find more and more

我们发现越来越多

complex arrangements of machines

机器复杂的结构

that make it harder and harder

从而越来越难去

to diagnose what's going on.

判断发生了什么

And the first people who saw that

首先体会到这些的人

were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century,

是19世纪中期的电报员

who were the original hackers.

他们是黑客的鼻祖

Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable

托马斯·爱迪生如果生活在当今软件公司的氛围中

in the atmosphere of a software firm today.

将会非常非常舒服

And these hackers had a word

这些黑客们有一个词

for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems

形容那些很离奇的电报系统错误

that they called bugs.

他们称其为 “bugs”

That was the origin of the word "bug."

那就是现在说的“故障”这个词的原型

This consciousness, though,

这个有意识的命名于是就

was a little slow to seep through the general population,

慢慢地传到了民间

even people who were very, very well informed.

特别是消息灵通人士那里

Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain,

萨缪尔·克莱门斯，马克·吐温

was a big investor

是个大发明家

in the most complex machine of all times --

发明了最复杂的机器--

at least until 1918 --

至少在1918年前是的--

registered with the U.S. Patent Office.

在美国专利局注册

That was the Paige typesetter.

那就是佩奇排字机

The Paige typesetter

佩奇排字机

had 18,000 parts.

有一万八千个部件

The patent had 64 pages of text

专利有64页文字

and 271 figures.

和271张图表

It was such a beautiful machine

那是如此棒的一台机器

because it did everything that a human being did

因为它可以胜任排字员的

in setting type --

所有工作--

including returning the type to its place,

包括排字机归位

which was a very difficult thing.

这是非常困难的事

And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting,

对排版了如指掌的马克·吐温

really was smitten by this machine.

却因为这台机器受到沉重打击

Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one,

不幸的是，他受的打击还不止于此

because it made him bankrupt,

他因此破产了

and he had to tour the world speaking

不得不靠世界巡回演讲

to recoup his money.

偿还负债

And this was an important thing

这件事对于19世纪的科技

about 19th century technology,

意义重大

that all these relationships among parts

组件之间的相互联系

could make the most brilliant idea fall apart,

有可能使得最好的点子付之东流

even when judged by the most expert people.

即使它得到了顶级专家的认可

Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century

20世纪早期，还有一些事件

that made things even more complicated.

使得情况变得更加复杂

And that was that safety technology itself

那就是安全技术本身

could be a source of danger.

就可能成为危险源

The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries,

对于很多同龄人来说，泰坦尼克就是一个教训

was that you must have enough lifeboats

那就是你必须保证为乘客准备

for everyone on the ship.

足够的救生船

And this was the result

这场悲剧的后果就是

of the tragic loss of lives

众多乘客因为没有

of people who could not get into them.

足够的救生船逃生而失去了生命

However, there was another case, the Eastland,

但是，还有一个案例，在伊斯特兰

a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915,

1915年有一艘船在芝加哥港沉没

and it killed 841 people --

841人遇难--

that was 14 more

比泰坦尼克号

than the passenger toll of the Titanic.

遇难人数还多14名乘客

The reason for it, in part, was

究其原因，某种程度上说

the extra life boats that were added

是因为船上增加了额外的救生船

that made this already unstable ship

使得原本平衡性就很差的船

even more unstable.

更加不稳

And that again proves

这再次证明

that when you're talking about unintended consequences,

当我们谈论无意识后果的时候

it's not that easy to know

从中找出教训并不是

the right lessons to draw.

一件简单的事情

It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded,

这实际上是个系统问题，船是如何装载的

the ballast and many other things.

压舱物和许多其他东西

So the 20th century, then,

接着在20世纪

saw how much more complex reality was,

我们见识了现实是多么的复杂

but it also saw a positive side.

同时也看到了其积极的一面

It saw that invention

那就是发明创造

could actually benefit from emergencies.

可以切实地从突发事件中受益

It could benefit

从灾难中

from tragedies.

受益

And my favorite example of that --

我最喜欢的案例--

which is not really widely known

作为一个技术革新的奇迹

as a technological miracle,

却并不广为人知

but it may be one of the greatest of all times,

但是它可能是最伟大的发明之一

was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War.

那就是二次大战中青霉素的广泛使用

Penicillin was discovered in 1928,

青霉素诞生于1928年

but even by 1940,

但直到1940年

no commercially and medically useful quantities of it

不论是在商业上或者医学上都没有

were being produced.

大量生产

A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it.

当时的许多制药厂都在生产

They were working on it independently,

他们都在独立生产

and they weren't getting anywhere.

产量很有限

And the Government Research Bureau

政府研究部门

brought representatives together

把制药厂代表召集在一起

and told them that this is something

告知他们必须要生产

that has to be done.

青霉素

And not only did they do it,

他们不仅仅按要求做了

but within two years,

而且在两年内

they scaled up penicillin

增加了青霉素产量

from preparation in one-liter flasks

从预先的一公升烧瓶

to 10,000-gallon vats.

增加到一万加仑的大桶

That was how quickly penicillin was produced

这就是青霉素如何短期内迅速制造的

and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time.

并成为有史以来最伟大的医学进步之一

In the Second World War, too,

还是在二战期间

the existence

太阳能辐射

of solar radiation

的存在

was demonstrated by studies of interference

通过英国雷达站进行探测的

that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain.

干扰研究而发现

So there were benefits in calamities --

这就从灾难中的受益--

benefits to pure science,

对纯粹科学研究有益

as well as to applied science

同时应用科学和医学都

and medicine.

从中受益

Now when we come to the period after the Second World War,

现在当我们来到后二战时期

unintended consequences get even more interesting.

无意识后果变得更加有趣

And my favorite example of that

我最喜欢的案例

occurred beginning in 1976,

发生在1976年

when it was discovered

军团病致病病菌

that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease

被研究发现

had always been present in natural waters,

一直存在与天然水中

but it was the precise temperature of the water

但是供热，通风和空气流通条件下

in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems

水的温度

that raised the right temperature

能升高到

for the maximum reproduction

有利于军团杆菌繁殖的

of Legionella bacillus.

最大化的温度

Well, technology to the rescue.

科学技术开始进行补救

So chemists got to work,

于是药剂师们开始了研究

and they developed a bactericide

他们发明了一种杀菌剂

that became widely used in those systems.

可以广泛地用于上述系统中

But something else happened in the early 1980s,

但是19世纪80年代早期发生了一件事

and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic

全美国的磁带播放器就像患上

of failures of tape drives

流行病一样

all over the United States.

出了故障

And IBM, which made them,

播放器生产商IBM

just didn't know what to do.

也不清楚应该如何应对

They commissioned a group of their best scientists

他们委任其最好的科研团队

to investigate,

进行调查

and what they found was

他们发现

that all these tape drives

所有出现故障的播放器

were located near ventilation ducts.

都接近通风口

What happened was the bactericide was formulated

原因就是这种杀菌药物

with minute traces of tin.

含有微量锡

And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads

这些锡微粒落在磁带的磁头部位

and were crashing the tape heads.

损坏了磁头

So they reformulated the bactericide.

于是他们重新制造了杀菌剂

But what's interesting to me

但是让我感兴趣的是

is that this was the first case

这是第一个致使

of a mechanical device

机械设备受损的案例

suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease.

至少是间接由人类疾病引起的设备受损

So it shows that we're really all in this together.

因此这表明我们其实都已经卷入其中了

(Laughter)

（笑声）

In fact, it also shows something interesting,

实际上它还反映了一些有意思的事情

that although our capabilities and technology

那就是虽然我们的能力和科技水平

have been expanding geometrically,

成几何级数的增长

unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior,

遗憾的是，我们模仿它们的同样不断增长的

which has also been increasing,

长期习性的能力

has been increasing only arithmetically.

仅仅以算术级增长

So one of the characteristic problems of our time

因此在我们的时代，一个典型的问题就是

is how to close this gap

如何消除

between capabilities and foresight.

能力增长和预见性之间的差距

One other very positive consequence

20世纪科技发展

of 20th century technology, though,

导致了另一个正面结果

was the way in which other kinds of calamities

虽然形式上是通过各种灾难

could lead to positive advances.

但却产生了积极的影响

There are two historians of business

马里兰大学的

at the University of Maryland,

两位企业史学家

Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch,

布伦特·戈德法布 和 大卫·基尔希

who have done some extremely interesting work,

做了一些关于人类发明史的

much of it still unpublished,

非常有趣的工作

on the history of major innovations.

大部分还尚未发表

They have combined the list of major innovations,

他们列出了重大的发明创造

and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade,

发现那些能在其它发明中体现出来的基础性发明

for fundamental innovations,

产生数量最多

as reflected in all of the lists that others have made --

最伟大的十年--

a number of lists that they have merged --

他们对发明目录进行了合并--

was the Great Depression.

是大萧条时期

And nobody knows just why this was so,

没有人知道为什么是这样

but one story can reflect something of it.

但是有件事反映出一些问题

It was the origin of the Xerox copier,

那就是施乐复印机的诞生

which celebrated its 50th anniversary

他们去年刚刚进行了50周年

last year.

庆祝

And Chester Carlson, the inventor,

它的发明者 切斯特·卡尔森

was a patent attorney.

曾是一位专利代理人

He really was not intending

他其实并没有打算

to work in patent research,

致力于专利研究

but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job.

但是他找不到其他的技术性工作

So this was the best job he could get.

所以这是他能找到的最好的工作

He was upset by the low quality and high cost

他对于当时低质量高成本的

of existing patent reproductions,

复印技术专利很失望

and so he started to develop

于是他开始发明一套

a system of dry photocopying,

干法复印系统

which he patented in the late 1930s --

并在19实际30年代后期申请了专利--

and which became the first dry photocopier

于1960年成为了第一个

that was commercially practical

用于商业用途的

in 1960.

干式复印机

So we see that sometimes,

因此我们看到

as a result of these dislocations,

由于这些阴错阳差

as a result of people

由于人们

leaving their original intended career

改变了他们了原有的职业方向

and going into something else

进入到一个

where their creativity could make a difference,

可以通过他们的创造力带来改变的领域

that depressions

沮丧

and all kinds of other unfortunate events

以及其它各种不如意

can have a paradoxically stimulating effect

反而可以对他们的创造力有刺激的

on creativity.

效果

What does this mean?

这意味这什么？

It means, I think,

我认为它表明

that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities.

我们生活在一个存在着意外可能性的时代

Think of the financial world, for example.

想一下金融圈的例子

The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham,

金融巨鳄沃伦·巴菲特，本杰明·格拉汉姆

developed his system of value investing

开发了价值投资系统

as a result of his own losses

正由于他自己在1929年

in the 1929 crash.

的破产

And he published that book

接着又于19世纪30年代初期

in the early 1930s,

出版了那本书

and the book still exists in further editions

现在依然再版发行着

and is still a fundamental textbook.

并且依旧作为基础教材

So many important creative things can happen

因此许多重要的发明都源于

when people learn from disasters.

人类从灾难中汲取经验

Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now --

想想我们现在大大小小的麻烦--

bed bugs, killer bees, spam --

臭虫 杀人蜂 垃圾邮件--

and it's very possible that the solutions to those

那些原本用来解决上述麻烦的技术

will really extend well beyond the immediate question.

很可能在其它领域得到更大应用

If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur,

我们想一下，比如路易斯·巴斯德

who in the 1860s

18世纪60年代

was asked to study

被要求对

the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry,

丝绸行业中的蚕的疾病进行研究

and his discoveries were really the beginning

他的发现却成为了疾病细菌理论的

of the germ theory of disease.

开山之作

So very often, some kind of disaster --

这不少见，有些灾害--

sometimes the consequence, for example,

有些后果，比如

of over-cultivation of silk worms,

过度种植蚕

which was a problem in Europe at the time --

成为了当时欧洲的问题--

can be the key to something much bigger.

可能比一些事情的意义更大

So this means

因此这意味着

that we need to take a different view

我们需要换个角度看

of unintended consequences.

无意识的后果

We need to take a really positive view.

我们需要一个非常积极的态度

We need to see what they can do for us.

我们要看到他可以为我们做什么

We need to learn

我们需要从

from those figures that I mentioned.

我提到的那些图表中学习

We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing,

我们需要，比如 从库欣博士身上学习

who killed patients

在早期的手术中

in the course of his early operations.

他使得病人丧失了生命

He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes.

他犯了些错误，是他的过失

And he learned meticulously from his mistakes.

然后他非常仔细的从错误中吸取经验

And as a result,

因此

when we say, "This isn't brain surgery,"

当我们说“这不是一个简单的脑外科手术”

that pays tribute to how difficult it was

它不是用来被证明有多么困难

for anyone to learn from their mistakes

然后被大家当作医疗领域失败案例

in a field of medicine

来借鉴的脑外科手术

that was considered so discouraging in its prospects.

它被认为是使其所在医疗领域前景变得堪忧的手术

And we can also remember

我们同样记得

how the pharmaceutical companies

医药公司

were willing to pool their knowledge,

是如何汇集他们的知识

to share their knowledge,

去共享他们的知识

in the face of an emergency,

在面对危急时刻之时

which they hadn't really been for years and years.

他们也许并不是总这样做

They might have been able to do it earlier.

也许可以做的更早一些

The message, then, for me,

对于我来说

about unintended consequences

无意识后果的主旨

is chaos happens;

是混乱的产物

let's make better use of it.

让我们更好的去运用它

Thank you very much.

非常感谢

(Applause)

（掌声）