Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

Prevoditelj: Katarina Smetko Recezent: Zlatko Smetisko

I didn't always love unintended consequences,

Nisam uvijek volio nenamjerne posljedice,

but I've really learned to appreciate them.

ali naučio sam ih zaista cijeniti.

I've learned that they're really the essence

Naučio sam da su one

of what makes for progress,

bit napretka,

even when they seem to be terrible.

čak i kad se čine strašnima.

And I'd like to review

Volio bih dati pregled

just how unintended consequences

načina na koji nenamjerne posljedice

play the part that they do.

igraju svoju ulogu.

Let's go to 40,000 years before the present,

Vratimo se u vrijeme prije 40.000 godina,

to the time of the cultural explosion,

u vrijeme kulturne eksplozije

when music, art, technology,

kad su glazba, umjetnost, tehnologija,

so many of the things that we're enjoying today,

tolike stvari u kojima danas uživamo,

so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED

tolike stvari koje se predstavljaju na TED-u

were born.

nastale.

And the anthropologist Randall White

Antropolog Randall White

has made a very interesting observation:

primijetio je nešto zanimljivo:

that if our ancestors

da su naši preci

40,000 years ago

prije 40.000 godina

had been able to see

mogli vidjeti

what they had done,

što su učinili,

they wouldn't have really understood it.

ne bi to zapravo razumjeli.

They were responding

Oni su reagirali

to immediate concerns.

na trenutne potrebe.

They were making it possible for us

Omogućavali su nama

to do what they do,

da radimo što oni rade,

and yet, they didn't really understand

a ipak nisu zapravo shvaćali

how they did it.

kako su to učinili.

Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present.

Pomaknimo se sada na 10.000 godina prije sadašnjosti.

And this is when it really gets interesting.

Sada postaje stvarno zanimljivo.

What about the domestication of grains?

Što je s kultivacijom žitarica?

What about the origins of agriculture?

Što je s nastankom poljoprivrede?

What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago

Što bi naši preci prije 10.000 godina

have said

rekli

if they really had technology assessment?

da su imali procjenu tehnologije?

And I could just imagine the committees

Već zamišljam odbore

reporting back to them

koji podnose izvješća

on where agriculture was going to take humanity,

o tome kamo će poljoprivreda odvesti čovječanstvo,

at least in the next few hundred years.

barem u narednih nekoliko stotina godina.

It was really bad news.

Bile su to zaista loše vijesti.

First of all, worse nutrition,

Prvo, lošija prehrana,

maybe shorter life spans.

možda kraći životni vijek.

It was simply awful for women.

Za žene je bilo jednostavno grozno.

The skeletal remains from that period

Ostaci kostura iz tog doba

have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night.

pokazali su da su cijele dane mljele žito.

And politically, it was awful.

Bilo je grozno i u političkom smislu.

It was the beginning of a much higher degree

Bio je to početak mnogo višeg stupnja

of inequality among people.

nejednakosti među ljudima.

If there had been rational technology assessment then,

Da je tada postojalo racionalno procjenjivanje tehnologije,

I think they very well might have said,

mislim da bi bili rekli:

"Let's call the whole thing off."

"Hajdemo radije odustati od svega."

Even now, our choices are having unintended effects.

Čak i danas naši izbori imaju nenamjerne posljedice.

Historically, for example,

Povijesno gledano, primjerice,

chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist

štapići za jelo -- prema jednom japanskom antropologu

who wrote a dissertation about it

koji je o tome napisao disertaciju

at the University of Michigan --

pri Sveučilištu u Michiganu --

resulted in long-term changes

rezultirali su dugoročnim promjenama

in the dentition, in the teeth,

na zubalu, na zubima

of the Japanese public.

Japanaca.

And we are also changing our teeth right now.

A naši se zubi i sada mijenjaju.

There is evidence

Postoje dokazi

that the human mouth and teeth

da ljudska usta i zubi

are growing smaller all the time.

postaju sve manji.

That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence.

To nije nužno loša nenamjerna posljedica.

But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal,

Ali mislim da jedan neandertalac

there would have been a lot of disapproval

ne bi nikako bio zadovoljan

of the wimpish choppers that we now have.

jadnim zubićima koje sada imamo.

So these things are kind of relative

Tako da te stvari uvelike ovise

to where you or your ancestors happen to stand.

o tome gdje se nalazite vi ili vaši pretci.

In the ancient world

U drevnom svijetu

there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences,

nenamjerne su se posljedice duboko poštovale

and there was a very healthy sense of caution,

i postojala je zdrava doza opreza,

reflected in the Tree of Knowledge,

koja se očituje u Drvu znanja,

in Pandora's Box,

u Pandorinoj kutiji,

and especially in the myth of Prometheus

i naročito u mitu o Prometeju

that's been so important

koji je bio vrlo bitan

in recent metaphors about technology.

u novijim metaforama o tehnologiji.

And that's all very true.

I to je vrlo istinito.

The physicians of the ancient world --

Liječnici drevnog svijeta --

especially the Egyptians,

naročito Egipćani,

who started medicine as we know it --

koji su osnovali medicinu kakvu danas poznajemo --

were very conscious

bili su vrlo svjesni

of what they could and couldn't treat.

što mogu, a što ne mogu izliječiti.

And the translations of the surviving texts say,

U prijevodima pronađenih tekstova stoji:

"This I will not treat. This I cannot treat."

"Ovo neću liječiti. Ovo ne mogu izliječiti."

They were very conscious.

Bili su vrlo svjesni.

So were the followers of Hippocrates.

Kao i Hipokratovi sljedbenici.

The Hippocratic manuscripts also --

Hipokratovi rukopisi također --

repeatedly, according to recent studies --

i opet, na temelju novijih istraživanja --

show how important it is not to do harm.

pokazuju koliko je bilo bitno ne nanositi štetu.

More recently,

U novije vrijeme,

Harvey Cushing,

Harvey Cushing,

who really developed neurosurgery as we know it,

koji je stvarno razvio neurokirurgiju kakvu danas poznajemo,

who changed it from a field of medicine

koji ju je pretvorio iz područja medicine

that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery

na koje je otpadala većina smrti uzrokovanih operacijom

to one in which there was a hopeful outlook,

u područje koje je pružalo nadu,

he was very conscious

on je bio vrlo svjestan

that he was not always going to do the right thing.

da neće uvijek učiniti ono što je ispravno.

But he did his best,

No, davao je sve od sebe

and he kept meticulous records

i vodio je detaljne bilješke

that let him transform that branch of medicine.

koje su mu omogućile da transformira tu granu medicine.

Now if we look forward a bit

Ako pogledamo još malo prema naprijed,

to the 19th century,

u 19. stoljeće,

we find a new style of technology.

pronaći ćemo novu vrstu tehnologije.

What we find is,

Ono što pronalazimo

no longer simple tools,

više nisu jednostavni alati,

but systems.

već sustavi.

We find more and more

Pronalazimo

complex arrangements of machines

sve složenija postrojenja

that make it harder and harder

u kojima je sve teže

to diagnose what's going on.

utvrditi što se događa.

And the first people who saw that

A prvi ljudi koji su to shvatili

were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century,

bili su telegrafisti sredine 19. stoljeća,

who were the original hackers.

koji su bili prvi hakeri.

Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable

Thomas Edison bi se osjećao vrlo, vrlo ugodno

in the atmosphere of a software firm today.

u atmosferi današnje softverske tvrtke.

And these hackers had a word

Ti hakeri imali su riječ

for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems

za zagonetne greške ("bugove") u telegrafskim sustavima

that they called bugs.

i zvali su ih "bugovi" (bube).

That was the origin of the word "bug."

Tako je i nastala riječ "bug".

This consciousness, though,

No, ta je osviještenost

was a little slow to seep through the general population,

prilično sporo dopirala do široke javnosti,

even people who were very, very well informed.

čak i do ljudi koji su bili vrlo dobro obaviješteni.

Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain,

Samuel Clemens, odnosno Mark Twain,

was a big investor

bio je veliki ulagač

in the most complex machine of all times --

u najsloženiji stroj svih vremena --

at least until 1918 --

barem do 1918. --

registered with the U.S. Patent Office.

registriran u Uredu za patente u SAD-u.

That was the Paige typesetter.

Bio je to Paigeov stroj za tiskanje.

The Paige typesetter

Paigeov stroj za tiskanje

had 18,000 parts.

imao je 18.000 dijelova.

The patent had 64 pages of text

Patent je imao 64 stranice teksta

and 271 figures.

i 271 sliku.

It was such a beautiful machine

Bio je to prekrasan stroj

because it did everything that a human being did

jer je radio sve što je radio čovjek

in setting type --

pri pripremanju tiska --

including returning the type to its place,

uključujući i povratak tipke na njezinu mjesto,

which was a very difficult thing.

što je bilo vrlo teško.

And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting,

Marka Twaina, koji je znao sve o tiskanju,

really was smitten by this machine.

taj je stroj oborio s nogu.

Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one,

Nažalost, oborio ga je na više načina,

because it made him bankrupt,

jer je zbog njega bankrotirao

and he had to tour the world speaking

te je morao putovati svijetom i držati govore

to recoup his money.

kako bi ponovno prikupio novac.

And this was an important thing

To je bilo bitno

about 19th century technology,

za tehnologiju 19. stoljeća --

that all these relationships among parts

zbog svih tih veza između dijelova

could make the most brilliant idea fall apart,

i najbolja bi ideja mogla propasti,

even when judged by the most expert people.

čak i kad je procjenjuju najstručniji ljudi.

Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century

Početkom 20. stoljeća postojalo je nešto drugo

that made things even more complicated.

što je stvari dodatno zakompliciralo,

And that was that safety technology itself

a to je činjenica da bi sigurnost same tehnologije

could be a source of danger.

mogla biti izvor opasnosti.

The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries,

Lekcija koju su brojni suvremenici naučili od Titanica

was that you must have enough lifeboats

bila je da mora biti dovoljno čamaca za spašavanje

for everyone on the ship.

za sve na brodu.

And this was the result

A to je bio rezultat

of the tragic loss of lives

tragičnog gubitka života

of people who could not get into them.

ljudi koji nisu mogli ući u čamce.

However, there was another case, the Eastland,

No, bio je još jedan slučaj, s Eastlandom,

a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915,

brodom koji se prevrnuo u luci u Chicagu 1915. godine.

and it killed 841 people --

Pritom je poginula 841 osoba --

that was 14 more

to je 14 više

than the passenger toll of the Titanic.

nego što je bilo putnika na Titanicu.

The reason for it, in part, was

Uzrok su, djelomično,

the extra life boats that were added

bili dodatni čamci za spašavanje

that made this already unstable ship

koji su ionako nestabilan brod

even more unstable.

učinili još nestabilnijim.

And that again proves

To ponovno dokazuje

that when you're talking about unintended consequences,

da kad govorite o nenamjernim posljedicama

it's not that easy to know

nije tako lako znati

the right lessons to draw.

koje su prave pouke koje treba izvući.

It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded,

Ovo je zapravo bilo pitanje sustava, tereta na brodu,

the ballast and many other things.

balasta i mnogih drugih stvari.

So the 20th century, then,

U 20. stoljeću, dakle,

saw how much more complex reality was,

vidjeli smo koliko je stvarnost složenija,

but it also saw a positive side.

ali to ima i pozitivnu stranu.

It saw that invention

Vidjeli smo da inovativnost

could actually benefit from emergencies.

može imati koristi od hitnih situacija.

It could benefit

Može imati koristi

from tragedies.

od tragedija.

And my favorite example of that --

Moj najdraži primjer toga --

which is not really widely known

što zapravo nije baš poznato

as a technological miracle,

kao tehnološko čudo,

but it may be one of the greatest of all times,

ali moglo bi biti među najvećima svih vremena,

was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War.

bio je porast korištenja penicililna u Drugom svjetskom ratu.

Penicillin was discovered in 1928,

Penicilin je otkriven 1928. godine,

but even by 1940,

ali čak ni do 1940. godine

no commercially and medically useful quantities of it

komercijalno i medicinski upotrebljive količine

were being produced.

nisu se proizvodile.

A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it.

Nekoliko farmaceutskih tvrtki radilo je na tome.

They were working on it independently,

Radile su na tom nezavisno jedna od druge,

and they weren't getting anywhere.

i nisu postizale nikakav napredak.

And the Government Research Bureau

Tada je vladin Ured za istraživanje

brought representatives together

okupio predstavnike tih tvrtki

and told them that this is something

i rekli su im da se to

that has to be done.

jednostavno mora učiniti.

And not only did they do it,

I ne samo da su to učinili,

but within two years,

nego su u dvije godine

they scaled up penicillin

unaprijedili penicilin

from preparation in one-liter flasks

od preparata u litrenim posudama

to 10,000-gallon vats.

do spremnika od 10.000 galona.

That was how quickly penicillin was produced

Tako se brzo penicilin proizvodio

and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time.

i postao je jedno od najvećih medicinskih dostignuća svih vremena.

In the Second World War, too,

Također u Drugom svjetskom ratu,

the existence

postojanje

of solar radiation

sunčevog zračenja

was demonstrated by studies of interference

dokazano je studijama interferencije

that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain.

koju su otkrile radarske stanice u Velikoj Britaniji.

So there were benefits in calamities --

Dakle, nesreće su imale i pozitivnih posljedica --

benefits to pure science,

koristi za čistu znanost,

as well as to applied science

kao i za primijenjenu znanost

and medicine.

i medicinu.

Now when we come to the period after the Second World War,

Kad dođemo do razdoblja nakon Drugog svjetskog rata,

unintended consequences get even more interesting.

nenamjerne posljedice postaju još zanimljivije.

And my favorite example of that

Moj najdraži primjer toga

occurred beginning in 1976,

pojavio se početkom 1976. godine,

when it was discovered

kad je otkriveno

that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease

da je bakterija koja uzrokuje legionarsku bolest

had always been present in natural waters,

oduvijek prisutna u vodama u prirodi,

but it was the precise temperature of the water

ali upravo temperatura vode

in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems

u sustavima za grijanje, ventilaciju i klimatizaciju

that raised the right temperature

dovela do pogodne temperature

for the maximum reproduction

za maksimalno množenje

of Legionella bacillus.

bakterije Legionella bacillus.

Well, technology to the rescue.

Tehnologija nam dolazi u pomoć!

So chemists got to work,

Kemičari su se bacili na posao

and they developed a bactericide

i razvili su baktericid

that became widely used in those systems.

koji se počeo široko primjenjivati u tim sustavima.

But something else happened in the early 1980s,

No, nešto se drugo dogodilo početkom 80-ih,

and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic

a to je da je naišla tajanstvena epidemija

of failures of tape drives

kvarova čitača disketa

all over the United States.

u cijelom SAD-u.

And IBM, which made them,

IBM, koji ih je proizvodio,

just didn't know what to do.

nije znao što da učini.

They commissioned a group of their best scientists

Okupili su skupinu svojih najboljih znanstvenika

to investigate,

kako bi to istražili.

and what they found was

Otkrili su

that all these tape drives

da su svi ti čitači

were located near ventilation ducts.

bili smješteni u blizini ventilacijskih cijevi.

What happened was the bactericide was formulated

Spomenuti je baktericid sadržavao

with minute traces of tin.

male količine kositra.

And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads

Čestice kositra hvatale su se na glave traka

and were crashing the tape heads.

i uništavale su ih.

So they reformulated the bactericide.

Na kraju su osmislili novu formulu baktericida.

But what's interesting to me

Ono što mi je zanimljivo

is that this was the first case

jest da je to bio prvi slučaj

of a mechanical device

da je mehanički uređaj

suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease.

patio, barem neizravno, od ljudske bolesti.

So it shows that we're really all in this together.

Vidimo da smo svi zajedno u ovome.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

In fact, it also shows something interesting,

Vidimo, zapravo, nešto zanimljivo,

that although our capabilities and technology

da iako su se naše sposobnosti i tehnologija

have been expanding geometrically,

geometrijski širile,

unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior,

nažalost, naša sposobnost da na njih dugoročno utječemo,

which has also been increasing,

koja se također povećava,

has been increasing only arithmetically.

povećava se samo aritmetički.

So one of the characteristic problems of our time

Jedan od karakterističnih problema našeg vremena

is how to close this gap

jest kako da popunimo tu prazninu

between capabilities and foresight.

između sposobnosti i predviđanja.

One other very positive consequence

No, druga vrlo pozitivna posljedica

of 20th century technology, though,

tehnologije 20. stoljeća

was the way in which other kinds of calamities

bio je način na koji su druge nesreće

could lead to positive advances.

mogle dovesti do pozitivnih pomaka.

There are two historians of business

Postoje dva povjesničara poslovanja

at the University of Maryland,

na Sveučilištu u Marylandu,

Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch,

Brent Goldfarb i David Kirsch,

who have done some extremely interesting work,

koji imaju iznimno zanimljive radove,

much of it still unpublished,

mahom još neobjavljene,

on the history of major innovations.

o povijesti velikih inovacija.

They have combined the list of major innovations,

Sastavili su popis najvećih inovacija

and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade,

i otkrili su da je najveći broj, najveće desetljeće,

for fundamental innovations,

za temeljne inovacije,

as reflected in all of the lists that others have made --

kao što se vidi na svim popisima koje su radili drugi --

a number of lists that they have merged --

popisima koje su sjedinili --

was the Great Depression.

bilo razdoblje Velike depresije.

And nobody knows just why this was so,

Nitko ne zna zašto je to bilo tako,

but one story can reflect something of it.

ali jedna priča može to djelomično objasniti.

It was the origin of the Xerox copier,

Radi se o nastanku fotokopirnog aparata Xerox,

which celebrated its 50th anniversary

koji je prošle godine proslavio

last year.

50. obljetnicu.

And Chester Carlson, the inventor,

Chester Carlson, njegov izumitelj,

was a patent attorney.

bio je odvjetnik za patente.

He really was not intending

Nije imao nikakvu namjeru

to work in patent research,

raditi na istraživanju patenata,

but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job.

ali nije mogao pronaći nikakav drugi tehnički posao.

So this was the best job he could get.

Tako da je to bio najbolji posao koji je mogao dobiti.

He was upset by the low quality and high cost

Uzrujavala ga je slaba kvaliteta i visoke cijene

of existing patent reproductions,

postojećih reprodukcija patenata

and so he started to develop

pa je počeo razvijati

a system of dry photocopying,

sustav suhog fotokopiranja,

which he patented in the late 1930s --

koji je patentirao krajem 1930-ih godina --

and which became the first dry photocopier

i koji je postao prvi suhi fotokopirni aparat

that was commercially practical

koji je bio praktičan za komercijalnu primjenu

in 1960.

1960. godine.

So we see that sometimes,

Vidimo da ponekad,

as a result of these dislocations,

kao posljedica promjene lokacije,

as a result of people

kao posljedica nečijeg

leaving their original intended career

napuštanja prvotnog zanimanja

and going into something else

i početka bavljenjem nečim drugim,

where their creativity could make a difference,

gdje će njihova kreativnost moći imati utjecaja,

that depressions

vidimo da gospodarske krize

and all kinds of other unfortunate events

i razni drugi nesretni događaji

can have a paradoxically stimulating effect

mogu imati paradoksalno stimulativan učinak

on creativity.

na kreativnost.

What does this mean?

Što to znači?

It means, I think,

Znači, mislim,

that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities.

da živimo u vrijeme neočekivanih mogućnosti.

Think of the financial world, for example.

Uzmimo, primjerice, svijet financija.

The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham,

Mentor Warrena Buffeta, Benjamin Graham,

developed his system of value investing

razvio je svoj sustav vrijednosnih ulaganja

as a result of his own losses

nakon što je sam pretrpio neke gubitke

in the 1929 crash.

u krizi 1929. godine.

And he published that book

Objavio je tu knjigu

in the early 1930s,

početkom 1930-ih

and the book still exists in further editions

i knjiga i danas postoji u novim izdanjima

and is still a fundamental textbook.

i još uvijek se smatra osnovnim udžbenikom.

So many important creative things can happen

Toliko se važnih kreativnih stvari može dogoditi

when people learn from disasters.

kad ljudi nešto nauče iz katastrofa.

Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now --

Sjetimo se velikih i malih pošasti koje imamo danas --

bed bugs, killer bees, spam --

stjenice, pčele ubojice, spam --

and it's very possible that the solutions to those

i sasvim je moguće da će se rješenja tih problema

will really extend well beyond the immediate question.

proširiti mnogo dalje od trenutnih problema.

If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur,

Ako se sjetimo, primjerice, Louisa Pasteura,

who in the 1860s

kojeg su 1860-ih

was asked to study

tražili da prouči

the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry,

bolesti dudovih svilaca za industriju svile,

and his discoveries were really the beginning

njegova su otkrića zapravo bila početak

of the germ theory of disease.

teorije klica bolesti.

So very often, some kind of disaster --

Dakle, vrlo često neka katastrofa --

sometimes the consequence, for example,

ponekad posljedica, primjerice,

of over-cultivation of silk worms,

pretjeranog uzgoja dudovih svilaca,

which was a problem in Europe at the time --

što je u to vrijeme bio problem u Europi --

can be the key to something much bigger.

može biti ključ nečeg mnogo većeg.

So this means

To, dakle, znači

that we need to take a different view

da trebamo iz drugog kuta

of unintended consequences.

sagledati nenamjerne posljedice.

We need to take a really positive view.

Moramo imati zaista pozitivnu perspektivu.

We need to see what they can do for us.

Moram vidjeti što one mogu učiniti za nas.

We need to learn

Moramo učiti

from those figures that I mentioned.

iz tih brojeva koje sam spomenuo.

We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing,

Moramo učiti, na primjer, od dr. Cushinga,

who killed patients

koje je ubijao pacijente

in the course of his early operations.

na svojim prvim operacijama.

He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes.

Morao je napraviti neke propuste. Morao je napraviti neke progreške.

And he learned meticulously from his mistakes.

Ali revno je učio iz svojih pogrešaka.

And as a result,

Posljedica toga je da,

when we say, "This isn't brain surgery,"

kad kažemo "Nije to neurokirurgija",

that pays tribute to how difficult it was

time odajemo počast tome koliko je bilo teško

for anyone to learn from their mistakes

učiti iz svojih pogrešaka

in a field of medicine

na području medicine

that was considered so discouraging in its prospects.

koje nije imalo pretjerano dobre izglede za razvoj.

And we can also remember

Možemo se sjetiti

how the pharmaceutical companies

i kako su farmaceutske tvrke

were willing to pool their knowledge,

bile voljne udružiti svoje znanje,

to share their knowledge,

dijeliti svoje znanje,

in the face of an emergency,

u hitnoj situaciji,

which they hadn't really been for years and years.

što zapravo godinama nisu radili.

They might have been able to do it earlier.

Možda su to mogli i ranije učiniti.

The message, then, for me,

Mislim da bi poruka u vezi

about unintended consequences

nenamjernih posljedica bila

is chaos happens;

da se kaos događa;

let's make better use of it.

iskoristimo ga bolje.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam puno.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)