Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

譯者: Joan Liu 審譯者: Oliver Hsieh

I didn't always love unintended consequences,

我並不是一直很喜歡始料未及的後果，

but I've really learned to appreciate them.

但我已經學著欣賞他們了。

I've learned that they're really the essence

我已經學到這是

of what makes for progress,

我們進步的原動力，

even when they seem to be terrible.

就算這些後果可能是很可怕的

And I'd like to review

所以我想要談談

just how unintended consequences

這些始料未及的後果

play the part that they do.

是如何扮演它們的角色的。

Let's go to 40,000 years before the present,

讓我們回到四萬年前，

to the time of the cultural explosion,

一段文明爆炸的時間，

when music, art, technology,

一段音樂、藝術、科技，

so many of the things that we're enjoying today,

這些我們現在所享受的東西，

so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED

很多在TED被展示的東西

were born.

開始的時代。

And the anthropologist Randall White

人類學家Randall White

has made a very interesting observation:

觀察到一個很有趣的現象：

that if our ancestors

就是就算我們的祖先

40,000 years ago

在四萬年前

had been able to see

已經可以看到

what they had done,

他們做了什麼，

they wouldn't have really understood it.

他們仍然沒有辦法完全瞭解。

They were responding

他們只是對著

to immediate concerns.

當下的問題做反應。

They were making it possible for us

他們只是想要讓我們

to do what they do,

可以做到他們所做的，

and yet, they didn't really understand

但他們不完全瞭解

how they did it.

他們是如何辦到的。

Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present.

現在，讓我們來到一萬年前。

And this is when it really gets interesting.

而這會變得很有趣。

What about the domestication of grains?

穀類是如何被馴化的？

What about the origins of agriculture?

農業是如何開始的？

What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago

一萬年前的人

have said

如果有科技評估報告的話

if they really had technology assessment?

他們會怎麼說？

And I could just imagine the committees

我可以想像

reporting back to them

委員會向他們報告

on where agriculture was going to take humanity,

至少在接下來的幾百年間，

at least in the next few hundred years.

農業如何影響人類

It was really bad news.

這真的是壞消息。

First of all, worse nutrition,

第一，較差的營養，

maybe shorter life spans.

有可能會造成較短的生命。

It was simply awful for women.

對女人來說更是糟糕。

The skeletal remains from that period

從那段時間留下的骨骸

have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night.

告訴我們他們從早到晚都在磨穀子。

And politically, it was awful.

政治上也很糟糕。

It was the beginning of a much higher degree

那是人群間更加不平等

of inequality among people.

的開始。

If there had been rational technology assessment then,

如果當時有很理性的科技評估報告，

I think they very well might have said,

我認為他們很有可能說：

"Let's call the whole thing off."

「讓我們中止這個案子吧。」

Even now, our choices are having unintended effects.

就算是現在，我們的選擇仍然有很始料未及的後果。

Historically, for example,

歷史上，舉例來說，

chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist

筷子--根據日本人類學家

who wrote a dissertation about it

在密西根大學

at the University of Michigan --

寫的研究報告--

resulted in long-term changes

已長期性地造成

in the dentition, in the teeth,

日本大眾牙齒中牙列

of the Japanese public.

的改變。

And we are also changing our teeth right now.

而且我們現在也正在改變我們的牙齒。

There is evidence

這是人類

that the human mouth and teeth

嘴巴和牙齒正在

are growing smaller all the time.

越長越小的證據。

That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence.

那並不表示這個始料未及的後果一定是不好的。

But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal,

但我認為以尼安德塔人的觀點來看，

there would have been a lot of disapproval

他們對於我們現在擁有的切菜器

of the wimpish choppers that we now have.

會有很多不贊成的聲音。

So these things are kind of relative

所以這些事其實是相對的，

to where you or your ancestors happen to stand.

與你和你的祖先間的關係有關。

In the ancient world

在古早時代，

there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences,

大家很尊重這些始料未及的後果，

and there was a very healthy sense of caution,

且也有很健康的謹慎感，

reflected in the Tree of Knowledge,

像是智慧樹，

in Pandora's Box,

像是潘朵拉的盒子；

and especially in the myth of Prometheus

尤其體現在普羅米修斯的神話中，

that's been so important

亦是近幾年來

in recent metaphors about technology.

常被用在科技的隱喻。

And that's all very true.

而這些都是真的。

The physicians of the ancient world --

遠古時代的醫生--

especially the Egyptians,

尤其是埃及人--

who started medicine as we know it --

近代醫學的開創者--

were very conscious

是非常謹慎地對待

of what they could and couldn't treat.

可以治及不可以治的課題。

And the translations of the surviving texts say,

而在現存的文本上說到：

"This I will not treat. This I cannot treat."

「這個我可以治。這個我不能治。」

They were very conscious.

他們是非常謹慎的。

So were the followers of Hippocrates.

希波克拉底斯的跟隨者也是如此。

The Hippocratic manuscripts also --

根據現今的研究，

repeatedly, according to recent studies --

希波克拉底斯的手稿一再地提到

show how important it is not to do harm.

不造成傷害是多麼重要的。

More recently,

更近一點，

Harvey Cushing,

哈維庫欣，

who really developed neurosurgery as we know it,

也就是讓神經外科手術發展成現今樣子的人，

who changed it from a field of medicine

一個完全改寫此一醫學領域的人，

that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery

亦是一個從一開始大部份手術失敗

to one in which there was a hopeful outlook,

到後來成為執行手術最有希望成功的人，

he was very conscious

他是非常謹慎的，

that he was not always going to do the right thing.

但他不見得每一次都做對了。

But he did his best,

但他已經盡力了，

and he kept meticulous records

他做了非常精細的紀錄，

that let him transform that branch of medicine.

讓他改寫了醫學中的這個領域。

Now if we look forward a bit

讓我們再往前看一點

to the 19th century,

來到十九世紀，

we find a new style of technology.

我們找到科技的新面貌。

What we find is,

我們找到的是，

no longer simple tools,

不再使用簡單的器具，

but systems.

而改使用系統。

We find more and more

我們找到愈來愈多

complex arrangements of machines

以複雜的組合而成的機器，

that make it harder and harder

讓我們愈來愈難察覺

to diagnose what's going on.

到底發生了什麼事情。

And the first people who saw that

第一個發現這個問題的人是

were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century,

是十九世紀中葉的電報員，

who were the original hackers.

也是最早的駭客。

Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable

愛迪生在現今的軟體公司

in the atmosphere of a software firm today.

應該會過得非常非常好。

And these hackers had a word

而這些駭客

for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems

給那些電報系統中的錯誤取了名字，

that they called bugs.

就叫作蟲子。

That was the origin of the word "bug."

這就是為什麼現在叫這些錯誤「蟲子」。

This consciousness, though,

這樣的想法

was a little slow to seep through the general population,

並沒有很快的滲入大眾，

even people who were very, very well informed.

就算是那些很有知識的人也沒有特別瞭解到這點。

Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain,

Samuel Clemens也就是馬克吐溫

was a big investor

是至少到1918年

in the most complex machine of all times --

是美國專利局當中

at least until 1918 --

最複雜的機器

registered with the U.S. Patent Office.

的大投資者。

That was the Paige typesetter.

那就是派及打字機。

The Paige typesetter

派及打字機

had 18,000 parts.

總共有一萬八千個零件。

The patent had 64 pages of text

專利總共有64頁文字

and 271 figures.

和271張圖。

It was such a beautiful machine

那是個非常棒的機器，

because it did everything that a human being did

因為它做到一個人在準備模板時做的

in setting type --

所有事情，

including returning the type to its place,

包括把模板回覆原樣，

which was a very difficult thing.

這是件非常難的事。

And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting,

馬克吐溫，這個瞭解所有關於字體模板的人，

really was smitten by this machine.

非常迷戀這部機器。

Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one,

不幸的，他不止在一方面的痴戀著這部機器，

because it made him bankrupt,

因為這讓他破產了，

and he had to tour the world speaking

所以他需要到處去演講

to recoup his money.

才能賺回些錢。

And this was an important thing

這對十九世紀的科技來說，

about 19th century technology,

是件重要的事，

that all these relationships among parts

這些不同零件間的關係

could make the most brilliant idea fall apart,

可以讓最傑出的想法崩壞，

even when judged by the most expert people.

就算是最專業的人士來看亦是如此。

Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century

在二十世紀有件事發生了，

that made things even more complicated.

讓整件事變得更複雜了。

And that was that safety technology itself

就算是在安全技術上

could be a source of danger.

都有可能有危險。

The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries,

鐵達尼號的教訓是

was that you must have enough lifeboats

你一定要有足夠載

for everyone on the ship.

全船所有人的救生艇。

And this was the result

而這是透過

of the tragic loss of lives

犧牲那些無法做到救生艇的人

of people who could not get into them.

才得到的結果。

However, there was another case, the Eastland,

但是，也有另外一個例子。在Eastland，

a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915,

1915年在芝加哥海灣有個滿載的船

and it killed 841 people --

犧牲了841條人命，

that was 14 more

比鐵達尼號

than the passenger toll of the Titanic.

的總人數還多14人。

The reason for it, in part, was

這個意外的部份原因是

the extra life boats that were added

船上載了太多救生艇，

that made this already unstable ship

讓這艘不穩定的船

even more unstable.

更加的不穩定。

And that again proves

這再次證明了

that when you're talking about unintended consequences,

在討論始料未及的後果時，

it's not that easy to know

很難確切知道

the right lessons to draw.

到底應該要學到什麼。

It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded,

在這個案例上最重要的是船如何裝載貨物的，

the ballast and many other things.

壓載量和其他東西的配合。

So the 20th century, then,

所以在二十世紀，

saw how much more complex reality was,

我們看到現實是多麼複雜的，

but it also saw a positive side.

但是以一個好的方面來看的。

It saw that invention

我們看到許多發明

could actually benefit from emergencies.

可以在災難中受益。

It could benefit

也可以在

from tragedies.

悲劇事件中受益。

And my favorite example of that --

而我最喜歡的例子是--

which is not really widely known

並不是大眾所認為的

as a technological miracle,

科技奇蹟，

but it may be one of the greatest of all times,

但有可能是古今最棒的發明之一，

was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War.

就是在第二次世界大戰盤尼西林的大量生產。

Penicillin was discovered in 1928,

盤尼西林在1928年被發現，

but even by 1940,

但一直到1940年

no commercially and medically useful quantities of it

仍然沒有達成任何商業上或是醫學上

were being produced.

的實用量產階段。

A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it.

有一些藥廠正在研究這個。

They were working on it independently,

他們各自對它做研究，

and they weren't getting anywhere.

但他們並沒有發現什麼。

And the Government Research Bureau

然後國家研究組織

brought representatives together

將這些藥廠的代表們集合起來

and told them that this is something

跟他們說他們

that has to be done.

必須做些什麼。

And not only did they do it,

他們不但做到了，

but within two years,

且在兩年內，

they scaled up penicillin

將盤尼西林從

from preparation in one-liter flasks

一公升燒瓶製備的規模

to 10,000-gallon vats.

量產成一萬加侖大桶子的量。

That was how quickly penicillin was produced

盤尼西林可以這麼快地被生產，

and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time.

而且成為醫學上一個無法取代的進展。

In the Second World War, too,

同樣在第二次世界大戰，

the existence

英國輻射測量中心

of solar radiation

測量到

was demonstrated by studies of interference

輻射干擾而證明了

that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain.

太陽輻射的存在。

So there were benefits in calamities --

這對災害研究是有益的--

benefits to pure science,

對純科學有益，

as well as to applied science

對應用科學有益，

and medicine.

對醫學有益。

Now when we come to the period after the Second World War,

現在當我們來到第二次世界大戰之後的時代，

unintended consequences get even more interesting.

無心的後果變得越來越有趣了。

And my favorite example of that

而我最喜歡的例子是

occurred beginning in 1976,

在1976年初發生的事情。

when it was discovered

在那年初

that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease

造成發現退伍軍人病的細菌

had always been present in natural waters,

一直都存在於自然水中，

but it was the precise temperature of the water

但在通風、空調系統中，

in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems

水溫剛好被

that raised the right temperature

加熱至

for the maximum reproduction

適合讓退伍軍人病菌

of Legionella bacillus.

可以大量繁殖的溫度。

Well, technology to the rescue.

當然，科技來解決問題。

So chemists got to work,

所以化學家研究了一下，

and they developed a bactericide

他們發明了一種殺菌劑，

that became widely used in those systems.

後來在空調系統中被廣泛使用。

But something else happened in the early 1980s,

但在1980年代也發生了一些事情，

and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic

就是全美國的磁帶播放器

of failures of tape drives

都莫名其妙地

all over the United States.

突然不能用了。

And IBM, which made them,

製造廠商ＩＢＭ

just didn't know what to do.

完全不知道該怎麼辦。

They commissioned a group of their best scientists

他們帶來了一組最好的科學家

to investigate,

來研究這個問題，

and what they found was

然後發現

that all these tape drives

這些磁帶播放器

were located near ventilation ducts.

都放在通風口附近。

What happened was the bactericide was formulated

事實上是上述殺菌劑

with minute traces of tin.

會製造微量的錫。

And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads

而且這些錫粒子會附著在播放器的磁頭上

and were crashing the tape heads.

讓整個磁頭壞掉。

So they reformulated the bactericide.

所以他們更改了殺菌劑的配方。

But what's interesting to me

但我覺得這個例子有趣的是

is that this was the first case

這大概是第一次

of a mechanical device

機械儀器

suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease.

因為人類疾病而受到損壞。

So it shows that we're really all in this together.

所以這告訴我們我們跟這一切都有關。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

In fact, it also shows something interesting,

事實上，這也告訴我們另一件有趣的事，

that although our capabilities and technology

就是雖然我們的科技

have been expanding geometrically,

正在以指數成長，

unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior,

但不幸的，我們預測長期結果的能力

which has also been increasing,

卻僅僅以

has been increasing only arithmetically.

線性成長罷了。

So one of the characteristic problems of our time

所以我們現今面臨的大問題是

is how to close this gap

要如何縮小

between capabilities and foresight.

這兩者中間的差距。

One other very positive consequence

另外一個二十世紀科技

of 20th century technology, though,

的重要正面結果是

was the way in which other kinds of calamities

這些災難可以

could lead to positive advances.

增進正面的發展。

There are two historians of business

在馬里蘭大學的兩個

at the University of Maryland,

商業歷史學家

Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch,

Brent Goldfarb和David Kirsch

who have done some extremely interesting work,

對歷史上重要的發明

much of it still unpublished,

做了一些

on the history of major innovations.

大部份尚未發表的研究。

They have combined the list of major innovations,

他們將史上重要的發明排成一個清單，

and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade,

然後從他們的清單中，

for fundamental innovations,

他們發現最多東西

as reflected in all of the lists that others have made --

被發明的時代，

a number of lists that they have merged --

就是在他們清單中最常出現的時代

was the Great Depression.

是大蕭條時期。

And nobody knows just why this was so,

沒有人知道為什麼，

but one story can reflect something of it.

但以下這個故事可以反映這個事實。

It was the origin of the Xerox copier,

就是全錄影印機發明者，

which celebrated its 50th anniversary

就是去年慶祝了50週年慶

last year.

的那個。

And Chester Carlson, the inventor,

Chester Carlson，一個發明家，

was a patent attorney.

也是一個專利律師。

He really was not intending

他事實上沒有很想要

to work in patent research,

做專利研究，

but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job.

但他找不到其他的工作。

So this was the best job he could get.

這是他能找到最好的工作。

He was upset by the low quality and high cost

他對現有的影印複製

of existing patent reproductions,

的低品質及高成本感到不滿，

and so he started to develop

所以他開始開發一種新的

a system of dry photocopying,

影印辦法，

which he patented in the late 1930s --

後來他在1930年代得到了專利，

and which became the first dry photocopier

也成為1960年

that was commercially practical

第一個有商業價值的

in 1960.

影印機。

So we see that sometimes,

所以我們看到，有時候

as a result of these dislocations,

是一些不合適的事情

as a result of people

一些人

leaving their original intended career

沒有做他們原本想做的工作

and going into something else

而轉到另外一個領域，

where their creativity could make a difference,

讓他們的創造力可以飛馳。

that depressions

也就是說挫折

and all kinds of other unfortunate events

或是其它不幸的事件，

can have a paradoxically stimulating effect

可能會有對創造力

on creativity.

有一些前所未有的啓發。

What does this mean?

這是什麼意思呢？

It means, I think,

我覺得我的意思是

that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities.

我們正生活在一個有許多事無法預測的時代。

Think of the financial world, for example.

看看現在的金融界。

The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham,

Benjamin Graham也就是巴菲特的導師

developed his system of value investing

是從1929年經濟危機的損失中

as a result of his own losses

發展出他的

in the 1929 crash.

價值投資理論。

And he published that book

而且他在1930年代早期

in the early 1930s,

發表了這本書，

and the book still exists in further editions

這本書到目前仍然持續改版

and is still a fundamental textbook.

成為重要的教科書。

So many important creative things can happen

所以說很多的重大創意

when people learn from disasters.

可以在人們碰到災難的時候被啓發。

Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now --

現在想想我們遇到的大大小小的災難--

bed bugs, killer bees, spam --

塵蟎、虎頭蜂、垃圾郵件--

and it's very possible that the solutions to those

很有可能這些事情的解決辦法的價值

will really extend well beyond the immediate question.

遠超過問題本身。

If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur,

舉例來說，如果我們說Louis Pasteur

who in the 1860s

在1860年代

was asked to study

被要求

the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry,

為了絲綢工業研究蠶疾病。

and his discoveries were really the beginning

而他的發現事實上是

of the germ theory of disease.

細菌疾病理論的開端。

So very often, some kind of disaster --

所以很多時候，有些災難--

sometimes the consequence, for example,

有時候它們的後果，像是

of over-cultivation of silk worms,

大量繁殖家蠶，

which was a problem in Europe at the time --

也正是那時歐洲的問題--

can be the key to something much bigger.

可以是開啟另外一件更重要的事情的鑰匙。

So this means

也就是說，

that we need to take a different view

我們需要以不同的角度

of unintended consequences.

來看始料未及的後果。

We need to take a really positive view.

我們需要以一個很正面的態度來看。

We need to see what they can do for us.

我們需要看到他們可以為我們做什麼。

We need to learn

我們需要向

from those figures that I mentioned.

我剛剛提到的那些人們學習。

We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing,

我們需要學習庫欣醫生，

who killed patients

就是那個在早期

in the course of his early operations.

失手殺死病人的醫生。

He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes.

他必須要犯過錯。他必須有這些失誤。

And he learned meticulously from his mistakes.

他很細心地從這些錯誤中學習。

And as a result,

結果，

when we say, "This isn't brain surgery,"

當我們說：「這不是腦部手術」時，

that pays tribute to how difficult it was

那告訴我們一個人

for anyone to learn from their mistakes

要在一個被認為很沒希望

in a field of medicine

的醫學領域中

that was considered so discouraging in its prospects.

從自我錯誤中學習有多困難。

And we can also remember

且我們需要記得

how the pharmaceutical companies

藥廠如何

were willing to pool their knowledge,

在緊急事件發生時，

to share their knowledge,

將他們所知道的知識

in the face of an emergency,

分享給大家，

which they hadn't really been for years and years.

一件他們幾年來一直沒有做的事。

They might have been able to do it earlier.

他們有可能可以更早做的。

The message, then, for me,

對我來說，

about unintended consequences

始料未及的後果的意義是

is chaos happens;

混亂是會發生的，

let's make better use of it.

我們只是要更妥善地運用他。

Thank you very much.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）