Edward Tenner: Unintended consequences

44,108 views ใƒป 2011-09-06

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Jeong-Lan Kinser ๊ฒ€ํ† : Sujin Byeon
00:15
I didn't always love unintended consequences,
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์ €๋Š” ํ•ญ์ƒ ์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ๋ž‘ํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์•˜์ง€๋งŒ,
00:18
but I've really learned to appreciate them.
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์ •๋ง ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๊ฐ€์น˜์žˆ๊ฒŒ ์—ฌ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๋ฒ•์„ ๋ฐฐ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:20
I've learned that they're really the essence
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ๋”์ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋Š๊ปด์ง€๋”๋ผ๋„
00:22
of what makes for progress,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์˜
00:24
even when they seem to be terrible.
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๋ณธ์งˆ์ž„์„ ์•Œ๊ฒŒ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:27
And I'd like to review
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ, ์ €๋Š”
00:29
just how unintended consequences
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์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋“ค์ด ํ•˜๋Š”
00:32
play the part that they do.
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์—ญํ• ์„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๊ณ ์ž ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:35
Let's go to 40,000 years before the present,
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์ง€๊ธˆ์œผ๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ 4๋งŒ๋…„์ „,
00:40
to the time of the cultural explosion,
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์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ฆ๊ฒจํ•˜๋Š”,์Œ์•…๊ณผ ์˜ˆ์ˆ , ํ…Œํฌ๋†€๋กœ์ง€์™€ ๊ฐ™์ด
00:44
when music, art, technology,
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TED๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์ƒ๋‹น์ˆ˜ ์‹œ์—ฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
00:49
so many of the things that we're enjoying today,
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๋ฌธํ™”ํญ๋ฐœ์ด ์‹œ์ž‘๋œ ์‹œ๋Œ€๋กœ
00:51
so many of the things that are being demonstrated at TED
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๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€๋ณด๊ธฐ๋กœ
00:54
were born.
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ํ•˜์ฃ .
00:56
And the anthropologist Randall White
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์ธ๋ฅ˜ํ•™์ž ๋ž€๋Œ ํ™”์ดํŠธ๋Š”
00:59
has made a very interesting observation:
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์กฐ์ƒ๋“ค์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์•„์ฃผ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ๊ด€์ฐฐ์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:02
that if our ancestors
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์ฆ‰, ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์กฐ์ƒ๋“ค์ด
01:04
40,000 years ago
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4๋งŒ๋…„์ „์—
01:06
had been able to see
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ์ด๋ฃจ์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€
01:09
what they had done,
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๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
01:11
they wouldn't have really understood it.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ์ดํ•ดํ•  ์ˆ˜๋„ ์—†์—ˆ์„ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:13
They were responding
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ฆ‰๊ฐ์ ์ธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๋“ค์—
01:15
to immediate concerns.
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๋Œ€์‘ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
01:18
They were making it possible for us
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ํ•˜๋Š”์ผ์„
01:20
to do what they do,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์ฃ .
01:22
and yet, they didn't really understand
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๊ทธ๋Ÿผ์—๋„, ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ
01:24
how they did it.
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์ดํ•ดํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:26
Now let's advance to 10,000 years before the present.
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์ž, ํ˜„์žฌ์—์„œ ๋งŒ๋…„์ „์œผ๋กœ ๋Œ์•„๊ฐ€ ๋ณด๊ธฐ๋กœ ํ•˜์ง€์š”.
01:31
And this is when it really gets interesting.
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์ด๊ฒŒ ์ •๋ง ์žฌ๋ฏธ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๋•Œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:33
What about the domestication of grains?
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๊ณก๋ฌผ ๊ธฐ๋ฅด๊ธฐ๋Š” ์–ด๋–ค๊ฐ€์š”?
01:36
What about the origins of agriculture?
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๋†์—…์˜ ๊ธฐ์›์€ ์–ด๋•Œ์š”?
01:39
What would our ancestors 10,000 years ago
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ํ…Œํฌ๋†€๋กœ์ง€ ํ‰๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด
01:42
have said
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์กฐ์ƒ๋“ค์€
01:44
if they really had technology assessment?
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๋งŒ๋…„์ „์— ๋ญ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ์„๊นŒ์š”?
01:46
And I could just imagine the committees
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ๋‹จ์ง€ ์œ„์›ํšŒ๊ฐ€
01:48
reporting back to them
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์–ด๋””์„œ ๋†์—…์ด ์ธ๋ฅ˜์• ๋ฅผ ์•—์•„๊ฐ€๋ คํ•˜๋Š”์ง€,
01:50
on where agriculture was going to take humanity,
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์ ์–ด๋„ ๋‹ค์Œ ๋ช‡ ๋ฐฑ ๋…„๋™์•ˆ
01:53
at least in the next few hundred years.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ณด๊ณ ๋ฅผ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ์ƒ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:56
It was really bad news.
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๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ •๋ง ๋‚˜์œ ์†Œ์‹์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:58
First of all, worse nutrition,
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๋ฌด์—‡๋ณด๋‹ค๋„, ์˜์–‘์ด ๋‚˜๋นด๊ณ ,
02:00
maybe shorter life spans.
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์ˆ˜๋ช…๋„ ์งง์•˜์„ ๊ฑฐ์˜ˆ์š”.
02:02
It was simply awful for women.
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์—ฌ์„ฑ์„์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ ๋”์ฐ ํ–ˆ์–ด์š”.
02:04
The skeletal remains from that period
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๊ทธ ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ๊ณจ๊ฒฉ ์œ ์ ๋“ค์€
02:06
have shown that they were grinding grain morning, noon and night.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์•„์นจ, ์ •์˜ค ๋ฐ ์ €๋…์œผ๋กœ ๊ณก๋ฌผ์„ ์”น์—ˆ๋˜๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:11
And politically, it was awful.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ •์น˜์ ์œผ๋กœ, ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋”์ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:14
It was the beginning of a much higher degree
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๋ถˆํ‰๋“ฑ์˜
02:17
of inequality among people.
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ค€์˜ ์‹œ์ž‘์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:20
If there had been rational technology assessment then,
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๋‹ค์Œ ํ•ฉ๋ฆฌ์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ํ‰๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ๊ฑฐ๊ธฐ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋‹ค๋ฉด,
02:23
I think they very well might have said,
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์ œ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด, "์ž, ์ „๋ถ€ ์ทจ์†Œํ•˜์ž," ๋ผ๊ณ 
02:25
"Let's call the whole thing off."
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๋งํ–ˆ์„ ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์„๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:28
Even now, our choices are having unintended effects.
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์ง€๊ธˆํ˜„์žฌ๋„, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์„ ํƒ์€ ์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:32
Historically, for example,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด, ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ
02:34
chopsticks -- according to one Japanese anthropologist
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์ “๊ฐ€๋ฝ์€ --
02:37
who wrote a dissertation about it
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๋ฏธ์‹œ๊ฐ„ ๋Œ€ํ•™์—์„œ
02:39
at the University of Michigan --
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์„ ์“ด
02:41
resulted in long-term changes
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ํ•œ ์ผ๋ณธ์–ด ์ธ๋ฅ˜ํ•™์ž์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด
02:44
in the dentition, in the teeth,
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์ผ๋ณธ์ธ๋“ค์˜ ์น˜์•„์—
02:46
of the Japanese public.
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์น˜์—ด์˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์œ ๋ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:48
And we are also changing our teeth right now.
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๋˜ํ•œ ์ง€๊ธˆ ํ˜„์žฌ์—๋„ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์น˜์•„๋ฅผ ๋ณ€๊ฒฝํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ค‘์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:51
There is evidence
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์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ž…๊ณผ ์น˜์•„๋Š”
02:53
that the human mouth and teeth
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ํ•ญ์ƒ ์ž‘์•„์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”
02:55
are growing smaller all the time.
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์ฆ๊ฑฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:57
That's not necessarily a bad unintended consequence.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ผญ ์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๋‚˜์œ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ์•„๋‹ˆ์˜ˆ์š”.
03:00
But I think from the point of view of a Neanderthal,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋„ค์•ˆ๋ฐ๋ฅดํƒˆ์ธ์˜ ๊ด€์ ์—์„œ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋ฉด,
03:02
there would have been a lot of disapproval
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
03:04
of the wimpish choppers that we now have.
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์•ฝํ•œ ์น˜์•„์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋งŽ์€ ๋ฐ˜๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์„ ๊ฑฐ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:07
So these things are kind of relative
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์€
03:10
to where you or your ancestors happen to stand.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์™€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์กฐ์ƒ์ด ์–ด๋””์— ์„œ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์™€ ๊ด€๋ จ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:14
In the ancient world
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๊ณ ๋Œ€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์—์„œ๋Š”
03:16
there was a lot of respect for unintended consequences,
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์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋งŽ์ด ์กด์ค‘ํ–ˆ์—ˆ๊ณ 
03:19
and there was a very healthy sense of caution,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ง€์‹์˜ ๋‚˜๋ฌด์—,
03:22
reflected in the Tree of Knowledge,
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๋˜ ํŒ๋„๋ผ์˜ ์ƒ์ž์—,
03:24
in Pandora's Box,
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ํŠนํžˆ ์ตœ๊ทผ ํ…Œํฌ๋†€๋กœ์ง€์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ์€์œ ์—์„œ
03:26
and especially in the myth of Prometheus
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ์ค‘์š”ํ–ˆ์—ˆ๋˜
03:28
that's been so important
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ํ”„๋กœ๋ฉ”ํ…Œ์šฐ์Šค์˜ ์‹ ํ™”์— ๋ฐ˜์˜๋˜์–ด ์žˆ๋Š”
03:30
in recent metaphors about technology.
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์ฃผ์˜์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์•„์ฃผ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•œ ๋Š๋‚Œ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:32
And that's all very true.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:35
The physicians of the ancient world --
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๊ณ ๋Œ€ ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ์˜์‚ฌ
03:37
especially the Egyptians,
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- ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•Œ๊ณ ์žˆ๋“ฏ์ด
03:39
who started medicine as we know it --
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์˜ํ•™์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ•œ ์ด์ง‘ํŠธ์ธ๋“ค์€
03:41
were very conscious
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฒƒ๊ณผ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†๋Š”๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•˜์—ฌ
03:43
of what they could and couldn't treat.
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์ž˜ ์˜์‹ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:45
And the translations of the surviving texts say,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‚จ์€ ํ…์ŠคํŠธ์˜ ๋ฒˆ์—ญ์€ ์ธ์šฉํ•˜๊ธฐ๋ฅผ,
03:50
"This I will not treat. This I cannot treat."
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โ€œ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด๊ฑด ๋‚ด๊ฐ€ ์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค." ๋ผ๊ณ  ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:52
They were very conscious.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์˜์‹์€ ์•„์ฃผ ๊ฐ•ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:54
So were the followers of Hippocrates.
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ํžˆํฌํฌ๋ผํ…Œ์Šค์˜ ์ถ”์ข…์ž๋“ค ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ทธ๋žฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:56
The Hippocratic manuscripts also --
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ํžˆํฌํฌ๋ผํ…Œ์Šค์˜ ์›๊ณ ๋˜ํ•œ
03:58
repeatedly, according to recent studies --
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์ตœ๊ทผ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ๋”ฐ๋ฅด๋ฉด, ๋ฐ˜๋ณตํ•ด์„œ,
04:01
show how important it is not to do harm.
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ํ•ด๋ฅผ ๋ผ์น˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ์ง€ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:04
More recently,
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๋ณด๋‹ค ์ตœ๊ทผ์—,
04:06
Harvey Cushing,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€
04:08
who really developed neurosurgery as we know it,
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์‹ ๊ฒฝ์™ธ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์ง„์ •์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ „์‹œํ‚ค๊ณ 
04:10
who changed it from a field of medicine
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์˜ํ•™๋ถ„์•ผ์˜ ๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์˜จ ๊ฒƒ์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ํ•˜๋น„์ฟ ์‹ฑ์€
04:13
that had a majority of deaths resulting from surgery
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ํฌ๋ง์ ์ธ ๊ด€์ ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Œ์—๋„
04:17
to one in which there was a hopeful outlook,
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๋Œ€๋‹ค์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ์ˆ˜์ˆ ๋กœ ์ธํ•˜์—ฌ ์‚ฌ๋ง์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์˜ค๊ธฐ๋„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:20
he was very conscious
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๊ทธ๋Š” ํ•ญ์ƒ ๋ฐ”๋ฅธ์ผ์„ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ์˜ˆ์ •์ด๋ผ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์—
04:22
that he was not always going to do the right thing.
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ์˜์‹์ ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:25
But he did his best,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ๊ทธ๋Š” ์ตœ์„ ์„ ๋‹คํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
04:27
and he kept meticulous records
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๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์˜ํ•™์˜ ํŒŒ์ƒ๋ถ„์•ผ๋ฅผ ๋ณ€ํ™˜ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ•œ
04:29
that let him transform that branch of medicine.
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์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ๊ธฐ๋ก์„ ๋‚จ๊ฒผ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:32
Now if we look forward a bit
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์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ์ง„์ „ํ•˜์—ฌ
04:35
to the 19th century,
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19์„ธ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด,
04:37
we find a new style of technology.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์Šคํƒ€์ผ์˜ ํ…Œํฌ๋†€๋กœ์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:39
What we find is,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€,
04:41
no longer simple tools,
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๋” ์ด์ƒ ๋‹จ์ˆœํ•œ ๋„๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
04:44
but systems.
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์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:46
We find more and more
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ
04:48
complex arrangements of machines
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์ง„๋‹จํ•˜๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์ ์  ํž˜๋“ค์–ด์ง€๋Š”
04:50
that make it harder and harder
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๊ธฐ๊ณ„์˜ ๋”์šฑ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ๋ฐฐ์—ด์„
04:52
to diagnose what's going on.
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๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:54
And the first people who saw that
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ฒ˜์Œ ๋ณธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
04:56
were the telegraphers of the mid-19th century,
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์›๋ž˜๋Š” ํ•ด์ปค์˜€๋˜
04:59
who were the original hackers.
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19 ์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ค‘๋ฐ˜์˜ ์ „์‹ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:01
Thomas Edison would have been very, very comfortable
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ํ† ๋งˆ์Šค ์—๋””์Šจ์€ ์˜ค๋Š˜๋‚ ์˜ ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด
05:04
in the atmosphere of a software firm today.
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ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋ถ„์œ„๊ธฐ์—์„œ๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ์•„์ฃผ ํŽธ์•ˆํ•จ์„ ๋Š๊ผˆ์„๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:07
And these hackers had a word
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋“ค ํ•ด์ปค๋“ค์€
05:10
for those mysterious bugs in telegraph systems
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์ „์‹  ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ์˜ค๋ฌ˜ํ•œ ์˜ค๋ฅ˜๋“ค์„
05:13
that they called bugs.
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๋ฒ„๊ทธ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋ถˆ๋ €์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:15
That was the origin of the word "bug."
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด "๋ฒ„๊ทธ" ๋ผ๋Š” ๋‹จ์–ด์˜ ๊ธฐ์›์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:19
This consciousness, though,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜ ์ด ์˜์‹์€
05:21
was a little slow to seep through the general population,
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์ •๋ณด๋ฅผ ์•„์ฃผ ์ž˜ ์•Œ๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋„, ์ผ๋ฐ˜ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ†ตํ•ด ์นจํˆฌํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ๋Š”
05:24
even people who were very, very well informed.
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์•ฝ๊ฐ„ ๋Š๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:27
Samuel Clemens, Mark Twain,
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๋งˆํฌ ํŠธ์›จ์ธ์œผ๋กœ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„ ์‚ฌ๋ฌด์—˜ ํด๋ ˆ๋ฉ˜์Šค๋Š”
05:29
was a big investor
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์ ์–ด๋„ 1918๋…„๊นŒ์ง€๋Š”
05:31
in the most complex machine of all times --
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ ํŠนํ—ˆ์ฒญ์— ๋“ฑ๋กํ–ˆ๋˜
05:34
at least until 1918 --
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์ „์‹œ๋Œ€์—์„œ
05:36
registered with the U.S. Patent Office.
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์˜ ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:38
That was the Paige typesetter.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€ ์‹์ž๊ณต์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:40
The Paige typesetter
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ํŽ˜์ด์ง€ ์‹์ž๊ณต์€
05:42
had 18,000 parts.
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18,000๊ฐœ์˜ ๋ถ€ํ’ˆ์ด ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:44
The patent had 64 pages of text
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ํŠนํ—ˆ๋Š” 64 ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์˜ ๋ณธ๋ฌธ๊ณผ
05:47
and 271 figures.
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271๊ฐœ์˜ ์ˆซ์ž๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:51
It was such a beautiful machine
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„์ฃผ ์•„๋ฆ„๋‹ค์šด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:53
because it did everything that a human being did
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ธ๊ฐ„์ด ํƒ€์ดํ”„ ์„ธํŒ…์—์„œ
05:56
in setting type --
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ํ–ˆ๋˜ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ผ๋“ค-
05:58
including returning the type to its place,
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ํƒ€์ดํ”„๋ฅผ ์ œ์ž๋ฆฌ๋กœ ๋Œ๋ ค๋†“๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜์—ฌ
06:00
which was a very difficult thing.
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๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:02
And Mark Twain, who knew all about typesetting,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํƒ€์ดํ”„์„ธํŒ…์˜ ๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ์•Œ์•˜๋˜ ๋งˆํฌ ํŠธ์›จ์ธ์€
06:04
really was smitten by this machine.
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์ด ๊ธฐ๊ณ„์— ์˜ํ•ด ๋งค๋ฃŒ๋‹นํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:07
Unfortunately, he was smitten in more ways than one,
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๋ถˆํ–‰ํžˆ๋„, ๊ทธ๋Š” ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด์—์„œ ๋งค๋ฃŒ๋‹นํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
06:10
because it made him bankrupt,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ทธ๋ฅผ ํŒŒ์‚ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์—,
06:12
and he had to tour the world speaking
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๊ทธ์˜ ๋ˆ์„ ํšŒ๋ณตํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด ์—ฐ์„คํ•˜๋Š”
06:14
to recoup his money.
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์„ธ๊ณ„ ํˆฌ์–ด๋ฅผ ํ•ด์•ผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:17
And this was an important thing
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€
06:19
about 19th century technology,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ „๋ฌธ์ ์ธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ํŒ๋‹จํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ์—๋„,
06:21
that all these relationships among parts
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๋ถ€๋ถ„๋“ค ์‚ฌ์ด์—์„œ ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ด€๊ณ„๊ฐ€
06:23
could make the most brilliant idea fall apart,
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๊ต‰์žฅํ•œ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ๋ถ„์‚ฐ์‹œํ‚ฌ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ํ•˜๋Š”,
06:27
even when judged by the most expert people.
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19์„ธ๊ธฐ ํ…Œํฌ๋†€๋กœ์ง€์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:29
Now there is something else, though, in the early 20th century
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด์ œ๋Š” ์ƒํ™ฉ์„ ๋”์šฑ ๋ณต์žกํ•˜๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ๋˜
06:32
that made things even more complicated.
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20 ์„ธ๊ธฐ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜์˜ ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:35
And that was that safety technology itself
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์•ˆ์ „ ๊ธฐ์ˆ  ์ž์ฒด๊ฐ€
06:38
could be a source of danger.
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์œ„ํ—˜์˜ ์›์ฒœ์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:40
The lesson of the Titanic, for a lot of the contemporaries,
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ํƒ€์ดํƒ€๋‹‰์ด ๋™์‹œ๋Œ€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ค€ ๊ตํ›ˆ์€
06:43
was that you must have enough lifeboats
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๋ฐฐ์— ๋ชจ๋‘์—๊ฒŒ ์ถฉ๋ถ„ํ•œ ๊ตฌ๋ช…์ •์„
06:45
for everyone on the ship.
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๋ณด์œ ํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:47
And this was the result
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ตฌ๋ช…์ •์— ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐˆ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์—ˆ๋˜
06:50
of the tragic loss of lives
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์ผ์ƒ์˜ ๋น„๊ทน์ ์ธ ์†์‹ค์˜
06:52
of people who could not get into them.
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๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:54
However, there was another case, the Eastland,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋‚˜, 1915๋…„์— ์‹œ์นด๊ณ  ํ•ญ๊ตฌ์— ์ „๋ณตํ•œ
06:57
a ship that capsized in Chicago Harbor in 1915,
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์ด์ŠคํŠธ๋žœ๋“œ์˜ ์‚ฌ๋ก€๋„ ์žˆ๋Š”๋ฐ์š”.
07:01
and it killed 841 people --
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์ด ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์€ ํƒ€์ดํƒ€๋‹‰์˜ ์Šน๊ฐ ์ˆซ์ž๋ณด๋‹ค
07:04
that was 14 more
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14๋ช…์ด ๋งŽ์€
07:06
than the passenger toll of the Titanic.
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841๋ช…์˜ ์ƒ๋ช…์„ ์•—์•„๊ฐ”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:09
The reason for it, in part, was
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๋ถ€๋ถ„์ ์œผ๋กœ, ๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋Š”,
07:11
the extra life boats that were added
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์—ฌ๋ถ„์˜ ๊ตฌ๋ช…์ •์ด ์ถ”๊ฐ€๋˜์–ด
07:14
that made this already unstable ship
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์ด๋ฏธ ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ •ํ•œ ๋ฐฐ๋ฅผ
07:17
even more unstable.
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๋”์šฑ ๋ถˆ์•ˆ์ •ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค์—ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:19
And that again proves
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€
07:21
that when you're talking about unintended consequences,
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์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ•  ๋•Œ,
07:24
it's not that easy to know
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์–ป์„๋งŒํ•œ ๋ฐ”๋ฅธ ๊ตํ›ˆ์„ ์•„๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€
07:26
the right lessons to draw.
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์‰ฝ์ง€ ์•Š๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฑธ ๋‹ค์‹œ ํ•œ๋ฒˆ ์ฆ๋ช…ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:28
It's really a question of the system, how the ship was loaded,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ๋Š” ๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์„ ์ ๋˜์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€,
07:31
the ballast and many other things.
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์•ˆ์ •๊ธฐ ๋ฐ ๊ธฐํƒ€ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ ๊ฐ€์ง€์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:35
So the 20th century, then,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ 20์„ธ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋‹ค์Œ์—,
07:38
saw how much more complex reality was,
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ๋” ๋ณต์žกํ•œ ํ˜„์‹ค์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
07:40
but it also saw a positive side.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋˜ํ•œ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์ธก๋ฉด์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:43
It saw that invention
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ฐœ๋ช…ํ’ˆ์ด
07:46
could actually benefit from emergencies.
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์‘๊ธ‰ ์ƒํ™ฉ์—์„œ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ ๋„์›€์ด ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:48
It could benefit
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋น„๊ทน์— ์˜ํ•ด
07:50
from tragedies.
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ํ˜œํƒ์„ ๋ฐ›์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:53
And my favorite example of that --
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ œ์ผ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜๋Š” ์˜ˆ๋Š”
07:55
which is not really widely known
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๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์ ์œผ๋กœ
07:57
as a technological miracle,
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์ •๋ง ๋„๋ฆฌ ์•Œ๋ ค์ง„ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
07:59
but it may be one of the greatest of all times,
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๋ชจ๋“  ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์œ„๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋กœ์„œ,
08:02
was the scaling up of penicillin in the Second World War.
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2 ์ฐจ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋Œ€์ „์—์„œ ํŽ˜๋‹ˆ์‹ค๋ฆฐ์„ ์ตœ๋Œ€๋กœ ์ฆ๋Œ€์‹œํ‚ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:06
Penicillin was discovered in 1928,
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ํŽ˜๋‹ˆ์‹ค๋ฆฐ์€ 1928 ๋…„์— ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋˜์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
08:09
but even by 1940,
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์‹ฌ์ง€์–ด 1940๊นŒ์ง€,
08:11
no commercially and medically useful quantities of it
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์ƒ์—… ๋ฐ ์˜๋ฃŒ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์œ ์šฉํ•œ ์ˆ˜๋Ÿ‰์ด
08:14
were being produced.
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์ƒ์‚ฐ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:16
A number of pharmaceutical companies were working on it.
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๋งŽ์€ ์ˆ˜์˜ ์ œ์•ฝ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ž‘์—…์„ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:19
They were working on it independently,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋…๋ฆฝ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ทธ ์ž‘์—…์„ํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
08:21
and they weren't getting anywhere.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์–ด๋–ค ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋„ ๊ฐ€์ ธ์˜ค์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:23
And the Government Research Bureau
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ •๋ถ€์˜ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ ๊ด€๋ฆฌ๊ตญ์ด
08:25
brought representatives together
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๋Œ€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ๋ฐ๋ ค์™€์„œ
08:27
and told them that this is something
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๊ทธ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๋ญ”๊ฐ€
08:29
that has to be done.
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์ฒ˜๋ฆฌ๋˜์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:31
And not only did they do it,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ–ˆ์„๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
08:33
but within two years,
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2 ๋…„ ์ด๋‚ด์—,
08:35
they scaled up penicillin
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ค€๋น„ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„
08:37
from preparation in one-liter flasks
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1 ๋ฆฌํ„ฐ ํ”Œ๋ผ์Šคํฌ์—์„œ์—์„œ
08:40
to 10,000-gallon vats.
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1 ๋งŒ ๊ฐค๋Ÿฐ์˜ ํ†ต์œผ๋กœ ์ฆ๋Œ€์‹œ์ผฐ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:44
That was how quickly penicillin was produced
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ํŽ˜๋‹ˆ์‹ค๋ฆฐ์ด ์–ด๋Š์ •๋„๋กœ ์‹ ์†ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ์‚ฐ๋˜๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ๊ณ 
08:48
and became one of the greatest medical advances of all time.
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์‚ฌ์ƒ์œ ๋ก€ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์˜๋ฃŒ ๋ฐœ์ „ ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:52
In the Second World War, too,
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์ œ 2 ์ฐจ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋Œ€์ „์—์„œ๋„
08:54
the existence
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ํƒœ์–‘ ๋ฐฉ์‚ฌ์„ ์˜
08:56
of solar radiation
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์กด์žฌ๋Š”
08:58
was demonstrated by studies of interference
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์˜๊ตญ์˜ ๋ ˆ์ด๋” ๋ฐฉ์†ก๊ตญ์— ์˜ํ•ด
09:01
that was detected by the radar stations of Great Britain.
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๊ฐ์ง€๋œ ์ถ”๋ก  ์—ฐ๊ตฌ์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ž…์ฆ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:05
So there were benefits in calamities --
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์ˆœ์ˆ˜ ๊ณผํ•™์— ์ด๋“์ด ๋ ๋ฟ๋งŒ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ,
09:08
benefits to pure science,
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์‘์šฉ ๊ณผํ•™ ๋ฐ ์˜ํ•™์—๋„
09:10
as well as to applied science
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์žฌ์•™์—๋Š” ์ด๋“์ด
09:12
and medicine.
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์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:15
Now when we come to the period after the Second World War,
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์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ œ 2 ์ฐจ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ๋Œ€์ „ ์ดํ›„์˜ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ์˜ค๊ฒŒ๋˜๋ฉด,
09:18
unintended consequences get even more interesting.
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์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š” ๋” ํฅ๋ฏธ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:22
And my favorite example of that
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1976๋…„์„ ์‹œ์ž‘์œผ๋กœ
09:24
occurred beginning in 1976,
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ข‹์•„ํ•˜๋Š” ์˜ˆ๊ฐ€ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š”๋ฐ,
09:27
when it was discovered
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๋ ˆ์ง€์˜ค๋„ฌ๋ผ ์งˆ๋ณ‘ (์žฌํ–ฅ๊ตฐ์ธ๋ณ‘)์„
09:29
that the bacteria causing Legionnaires disease
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์ผ์œผํ‚ค๋Š” ๋ฐ•ํ…Œ๋ฆฌ์•„๋Š”
09:32
had always been present in natural waters,
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ํ•ญ์ƒ ์ž์—ฐ์˜ ๋ฌผ์— ์กด์žฌํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋˜์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
09:35
but it was the precise temperature of the water
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋ ˆ์ง€์˜ค๋„ฌ๋ผ ์„ธ๊ท ์˜
09:39
in heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems
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์ตœ๋Œ€ ์žฌ์ƒ์‚ฐ์˜ ๊ทน๋Œ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ
09:42
that raised the right temperature
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์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์˜จ๋„๋ฅผ ๋†’์ด๋Š”๊ฒƒ์€
09:46
for the maximum reproduction
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๋‚œ๋ฐฉ, ํ™˜๊ธฐ ๋ฐ ์—์–ด์ปจ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์—์„œ์˜
09:49
of Legionella bacillus.
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๋ฌผ์˜ ์ •ํ™•ํ•œ ์˜จ๋„์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:51
Well, technology to the rescue.
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๊ตฌ์กฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ํ…Œํฌ๋†€๋กœ์ง€์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:53
So chemists got to work,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ํ™”ํ•™์ž๋“ค์€ ์ผ์„ํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
09:55
and they developed a bactericide
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฌํ•œ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์— ๋„๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌ์šฉ๋œ
09:57
that became widely used in those systems.
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๋ฐ•ํ…Œ๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ์ด๋“œ๋ฅผ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:00
But something else happened in the early 1980s,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ 1980 ๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ๋ฐ˜์— ๋ฐœ์ƒํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
10:04
and that was that there was a mysterious epidemic
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ „ ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ํ…Œ์ดํ”„ ๋“œ๋ผ์ด๋ธŒ (์ž๊ธฐ(็ฃๆฐฃ) ํ…Œ์ดํ”„๋กœ ํ…Œ์ดํ”„๋กœ ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ๋ฅผ ํŒ๋…ํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๊ธฐ๋กํ•˜๋Š” ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ ์ œ์–ด ์žฅ์น˜)๊ฐ€
10:06
of failures of tape drives
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์‹คํŒจํ•˜๋Š” ์œ ํ–‰๋ณ‘์ด
10:09
all over the United States.
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๋ฐœ์ƒํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:11
And IBM, which made them,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๋งŒ๋“  IBM์€,
10:14
just didn't know what to do.
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๋‹จ์ง€ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ํ•ด์•ผํ• ์ง€ ๋ชฐ๋ž์–ด์š”.
10:17
They commissioned a group of their best scientists
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์กฐ์‚ฌ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด
10:20
to investigate,
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์ตœ๊ณ  ๊ณผํ•™์ž์˜ ๊ทธ๋ฃน์—๊ฒŒ ์˜๋ขฐํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
10:22
and what they found was
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๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ•œ๊ฒƒ์€
10:24
that all these tape drives
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์ด ํ…Œ์ดํ”„ ๋“œ๋ผ์ด๋ธŒ๋“ค์ด
10:26
were located near ventilation ducts.
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ํ™˜๊ธฐ ๋•ํŠธ ๋ถ€๊ทผ์— ์œ„์น˜ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:29
What happened was the bactericide was formulated
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๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋Š๋ƒ ํ•˜๋ฉด, ๋ฐ•ํ…Œ๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ์ด๊ฐ€ ์ฃผ์„์˜ ํ”์ ์„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ
10:32
with minute traces of tin.
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ํ˜•์„ฑ์ด ๋œ๊ฒƒ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:34
And these tin particles were deposited on the tape heads
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด ์ฃผ์„ ๋ถ„์ž๋“ค์€ ํ…Œ์ดํ”„ ๋จธ๋ฆฌ์— ๋ˆ„์ ์ด ๋˜์–ด
10:37
and were crashing the tape heads.
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ํ…Œ์ดํ”„ ๋จธ๋ฆฌ์— ์ถฉ๋Œํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:40
So they reformulated the bactericide.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋ฐ•ํ…Œ๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ์ด๋“œ๋ฅผ ์žฌํ˜•์„ฑํ™” ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:43
But what's interesting to me
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ œ๊ฒŒ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์› ๋˜๊ฒƒ์€
10:45
is that this was the first case
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์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์—์„œ,
10:47
of a mechanical device
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์ ์–ด๋„ ๊ฐ„์ ‘์ ์œผ๋กœ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„ ์žฅ์น˜๊ฐ€
10:49
suffering, at least indirectly, from a human disease.
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๊ณ ํ†ต์˜ ์ฒซ ๋ฒˆ์งธ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:52
So it shows that we're really all in this together.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์ •๋ง ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์„œ ๋ชจ๋‘ ํ•จ๊ป˜ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:55
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:57
In fact, it also shows something interesting,
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์‚ฌ์‹ค, ๊ทธ๊ฑด ๋˜ํ•œ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ฃผ๋Š”๋ฐ,
11:00
that although our capabilities and technology
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๊ณผ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์€
11:03
have been expanding geometrically,
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๊ธฐํ•˜ํ•™์ ์œผ๋กœ ํ™•๋Œ€๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Œ์— ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ ,
11:05
unfortunately, our ability to model their long-term behavior,
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๋ถˆํ–‰ํ•˜๊ฒŒ๋„ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์˜ ์žฅ๊ธฐ์ ์ธ ํ–‰์œ„๋ฅผ ๋ชจ๋ธํ™”ํ• 
11:08
which has also been increasing,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๋˜ํ•œ ์ฆ๊ฐ€๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ธฐ๋Š” ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ,
11:10
has been increasing only arithmetically.
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๋‹จ์ง€ ์‚ฐ์ˆ ์ ์œผ๋กœ๋งŒ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์„๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:13
So one of the characteristic problems of our time
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์‹œ๋Œ€์˜ ํŠน์„ฑ์˜ ๋ฌธ์ œ์  ์ค‘ ํ•˜๋‚˜๋Š”
11:16
is how to close this gap
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๋Šฅ๋ ฅ๊ณผ ์˜ˆ์ง€๋ ฅ ์‚ฌ์ด์˜ ๊ฐ„๊ฒฉ์„
11:18
between capabilities and foresight.
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ฐ์†Œ์‹œํ‚ค๋Š๋ƒ ํ•˜๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:21
One other very positive consequence
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20์„ธ๊ธฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ค‘
11:24
of 20th century technology, though,
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋Š”
11:27
was the way in which other kinds of calamities
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์ข…๋ฅ˜์˜ ์žฌ๋‚œ์„ ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๋ฐœ์ „์œผ๋กœ
11:31
could lead to positive advances.
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์ด๋Œ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:34
There are two historians of business
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๋ฉ”๋ฆด๋žœ๋“œ ๋Œ€ํ•™๊ต์—
11:37
at the University of Maryland,
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๋ธŒ๋ ŒํŠธ ๊ณจ๋“œํŒŒ๋ธŒ์™€ ๋ฐ์ด๋น„๋“œ ์ปค์‰ฌ๋ผ๋Š”
11:39
Brent Goldfarb and David Kirsch,
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๋‘ ๋น„์ฆˆ๋‹ˆ์Šค ์—ญ์‚ฌ๊ฐ€๋Š”,
11:41
who have done some extremely interesting work,
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๋งŽ์€ ๋ถ„์•ผ๊ฐ€ ์•„์ง ์ถœํŒ์€ ๋˜์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์ง€๋งŒ
11:43
much of it still unpublished,
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์ฃผ์š” ํ˜์‹ ์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์—์„œ
11:46
on the history of major innovations.
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๊ต‰์žฅํžˆ ํฅ๋ฏธ๋กœ์šด ์ž‘์—…์„ ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:48
They have combined the list of major innovations,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ฃผ์š” ํ˜์‹ ์˜ ๋ชฉ๋ก์„ ์ข…ํ•ฉํ–ˆ๊ณ ,
11:51
and they've discovered that the greatest number, the greatest decade,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๊ทผ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ํ˜์‹ ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋งŽ์ดํ•œ ํ•ด๋Š”,
11:54
for fundamental innovations,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ตœ๋Œ€์˜ ์‹ญ๋…„๋™์•ˆ์€
11:56
as reflected in all of the lists that others have made --
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๋ณ‘ํ•ฉ๋œ ๋ฆฌ์ŠคํŠธ์˜ ์ˆซ์ž๋กœ
12:00
a number of lists that they have merged --
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋งŒ๋“  ๋ชฉ๋ก์— ๋ฐ˜์˜๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ฒ˜๋Ÿผ-
12:02
was the Great Depression.
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๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ์ด์—ˆ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:05
And nobody knows just why this was so,
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์•„๋ฌด๋„ ์™œ ์ด๊ฒŒ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋œ์ง€๋Š” ๋ชฐ๋ž์ง€๋งŒ,
12:08
but one story can reflect something of it.
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ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ทธ ์–ด๋–ค์ ์„ ๋ฐ˜์˜ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:11
It was the origin of the Xerox copier,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ž‘๋…„์— ์ฐฝ๋ฆฝ 50 ์ฃผ๋…„์„ ๊ธฐ๋…ํ–ˆ๋˜
12:14
which celebrated its 50th anniversary
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์ œ๋ก์Šค์˜ ๋ณต์‚ฌ๊ธฐ์˜
12:17
last year.
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๊ธฐ์›์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:19
And Chester Carlson, the inventor,
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๋ฐœ๋ช…๊ฐ€์ธ ์ฒด์Šคํ„ฐ ์นผ์Šจ์€
12:24
was a patent attorney.
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๋ณ€๋ฆฌ์‚ฌ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:27
He really was not intending
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๊ทธ๋Š” ์ •๋ง
12:30
to work in patent research,
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ํŠนํ—ˆ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ ์ž‘์—…ํ•˜๋ ค๋Š” ์•„๋‹ˆ์—ˆ์ง€๋งŒ,
12:32
but he couldn't really find an alternative technical job.
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์ •๋ง ๋Œ€์•ˆ์ ์ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ง ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ฐพ์„ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:36
So this was the best job he could get.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ทธ๊ฐ€ ์–ป์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์ง์—… ์ด์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:38
He was upset by the low quality and high cost
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๊ทธ๋Š” ๊ธฐ์กด์˜ ํŠนํ—ˆ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์˜ ๋‚ฎ์€ ํ’ˆ์งˆ๊ณผ ๋†’์€ ๋น„์šฉ์—
12:42
of existing patent reproductions,
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ํ™”๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์žˆ์—ˆ๊ณ ,
12:45
and so he started to develop
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๊ทธ๋Š” ํ›„๋ฐ˜ 1930 ๋…„๋Œ€์—
12:48
a system of dry photocopying,
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ํŠนํ—ˆ๋ฅผ ๋‚ธ ๊ฑด์กฐ ๋ณต์‚ฌ์˜ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์„ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค
12:51
which he patented in the late 1930s --
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-๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ๊ฑด์กฐ๋ณต์‚ฌ๊ธฐ๋Š”
12:54
and which became the first dry photocopier
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1960 ๋…„์—
12:58
that was commercially practical
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์ƒ์—…์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‹ค์šฉํ™”๋œ ์ฒซ๋ฒˆ์งธ
13:00
in 1960.
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๊ฑด์กฐ๋ณต์‚ฌ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:02
So we see that sometimes,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋•Œ๋•Œ๋กœ,
13:04
as a result of these dislocations,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์›๋ž˜
13:06
as a result of people
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์˜๋„ํ•œ ์ง์—…์„ ๋– ๋‚˜
13:08
leaving their original intended career
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋ถ„์•ผ๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด๊ฐ€์„œ
13:11
and going into something else
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์ฐฝ์˜๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ
13:13
where their creativity could make a difference,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์ฐฝ์˜๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ
13:15
that depressions
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๋ณ€ํ™”๋ฅผ ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋กœ,
13:17
and all kinds of other unfortunate events
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์šฐ์šธ์ฆ๊ณผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๋งŽ์€ ๋ถˆํ–‰ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๊ฑด๋“ค๋„
13:20
can have a paradoxically stimulating effect
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์ฐฝ์˜๋ ฅ์—์„œ ์—ญ์„ค์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ž๊ทน์ ์ธ ํšจ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ์–ป์„์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”
13:23
on creativity.
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์ด ์ „์œ„(่ฝ‰ไฝ)์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋ฅผ ๋ด…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:25
What does this mean?
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์ด๊ฑด ๋ฌด์—‡์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ• ๊นŒ์š”?
13:27
It means, I think,
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์€, ์ œ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š”,
13:29
that we're living in a time of unexpected possibilities.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ๊ธฐ์น˜์•Š์€ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์˜ ์‹œ๊ธฐ์— ์‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:31
Think of the financial world, for example.
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด ๊ธˆ์œต ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์„ธ์š”.
13:34
The mentor of Warren Buffett, Benjamin Graham,
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์›Œ๋ Œ ๋ฒ„ํŽซ์˜ ๋ฉ˜ํ† ์ธ, ๋ฒค์ž๋ฏผ ๊ทธ๋ ˆ์ด์—„์€,
13:37
developed his system of value investing
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1,929๋…„์˜ ๋ชฐ๋ฝ์—์„œ ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์†์‹ค์˜ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋กœ์„œ
13:42
as a result of his own losses
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ํˆฌ์ž๊ฐ€์น˜ ์‹œ์Šคํ…œ์„
13:44
in the 1929 crash.
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๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:46
And he published that book
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋Š” 1930 ๋…„๋Œ€ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ์—
13:48
in the early 1930s,
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๊ทธ ๋„์„œ๋ฅผ ์ถœํŒํ•˜๊ณ ,
13:51
and the book still exists in further editions
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๊ทธ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๊ณ„์† ๊ฐœ์ •์ถœํŒ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ 
13:53
and is still a fundamental textbook.
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์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ต๊ณผ์„œ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:55
So many important creative things can happen
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์žฌํ•ด๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐฐ์šธ ๋•Œ
13:59
when people learn from disasters.
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๋งŽ์€ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ฐฝ์˜์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:02
Now think of the large and small plagues that we have now --
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์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์ง„ ํฌ๊ณ  ์ž‘์€ ์žฌ์•™์„ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด์„ธ์š”--
14:06
bed bugs, killer bees, spam --
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์นจ๋Œ€๋ฒŒ๋ ˆ, ํ‚ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ฒŒ, ์ŠคํŒธ โ€“
14:11
and it's very possible that the solutions to those
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ํ•ด๊ฒฐ๋ฐฉ์•ˆ๋Š”
14:14
will really extend well beyond the immediate question.
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์ฆ‰๊ฐ์ ์ธ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์˜ ํ•œ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ฒ—์–ด๋‚˜ ํ™•์žฅ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:17
If we think, for example, of Louis Pasteur,
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด,
14:20
who in the 1860s
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1860๋…„๋Œ€์˜
14:22
was asked to study
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์‹คํฌ์‚ฐ์—…์„ ์œ„ํ•ด
14:24
the diseases of silk worms for the silk industry,
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์‹คํฌ ๋ฒŒ๋ ˆ์˜ ์งˆ๋ณ‘์„ ์—ฐ๊ตฌํ•˜๋„๋ก ์š”์ฒญ๋ฐ›์•˜๋˜ ๋ฃจ์ด ํŒŒ์Šคํ‡ด๋ฅด๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ด๋ณด๋ฉด,
14:28
and his discoveries were really the beginning
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๊ทธ์˜ ๋ฐœ๊ฒฌ๋“ค์€ ์‹ค์ œ๋กœ
14:31
of the germ theory of disease.
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์งˆ๋ณ‘์˜ ์„ธ๊ท ์ด๋ก ์˜ ์‹œ์ž‘์ด ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:33
So very often, some kind of disaster --
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์–ด, ์ข…์ข…
14:36
sometimes the consequence, for example,
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์žฌํ•ด์˜ ์ผ์ข…๊ณผ ๋•Œ๋กœ๋Š” ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ,
14:39
of over-cultivation of silk worms,
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๋‹น์‹œ ์œ ๋Ÿฝ์—์„œ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ–ˆ๋˜
14:42
which was a problem in Europe at the time --
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์‹คํฌ ๋ฒŒ๋ ˆ์˜ ๊ณผ๋‹ค ์žฌ๋ฐฐ๋Š”,
14:44
can be the key to something much bigger.
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ํ›จ์”ฌ ๋” ํฐ ๋ฌด์–ธ๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•œ ์—ด์‡ ๊ฐ€ ๋  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:46
So this means
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๊ฒƒ์€
14:48
that we need to take a different view
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์˜ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒฌํ•ด๋ฅผ
14:50
of unintended consequences.
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์ทจํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š”๊ฒƒ์„ ์˜๋ฏธํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:52
We need to take a really positive view.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ •๋ง ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ์ „๋ง์„ ์ทจํ•ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:55
We need to see what they can do for us.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๊ทธ๋“ค์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ๋ญ˜ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ด์•ผํ•  ํ•„์š”๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
14:58
We need to learn
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ง์”€ ๋“œ๋ฆฐ ๊ทธ ์ˆ˜์น˜์—์„œ
15:00
from those figures that I mentioned.
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๋ฐฐ์šฐ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:02
We need to learn, for example, from Dr. Cushing,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด,
15:05
who killed patients
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๊ทธ์˜ ์ดˆ๊ธฐ ์ž‘์—…์˜ ๊ณผ์ •์—์„œ
15:07
in the course of his early operations.
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ํ™˜์ž๋ฅผ ์ฃฝ์ธ ์ฟ ์‹ฑ๋ฐ•์‚ฌ์—๊ฒŒ์„œ ๋ฐฐ์›Œ์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:09
He had to have some errors. He had to have some mistakes.
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๊ทธ์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๋ช‡ ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์˜ค๋ฅ˜๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ์Œ์— ํ‹€๋ฆผ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ทธ๋Š” ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€ ์‹ค์ˆ˜๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ์Œ์— ํ‹€๋ฆผ์—†์–ด์š”.
15:12
And he learned meticulously from his mistakes.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋Š” ์ž์‹ ์˜ ์‹ค์ˆ˜์—์„œ ๊ผผ๊ผผํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฐฐ์› ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:15
And as a result,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ๋กœ,
15:17
when we say, "This isn't brain surgery,"
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โ€œ์ด๊ฑด ๋‡Œ์ˆ˜์ˆ ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ์•ผ.โ€ ๋ผ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ• ๋•Œ,
15:20
that pays tribute to how difficult it was
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๊ทธ ์ž ์žฌ๋ ฅ์—์„œ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด๋‚˜ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅ์„ฑ์ด ํฌ๋ฐ•ํ•˜๋‹ค๊ณ  ๊ฐ„์ฃผ๋˜์—ˆ๋˜ ์˜ํ•™์˜ ๋ถ„์•ผ์—์„œ
15:23
for anyone to learn from their mistakes
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์‹ค์ˆ˜๋กœ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๋Š”๊ฒƒ์ด
15:25
in a field of medicine
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๋ˆ„๊ตฌ์—๊ฒŒ๋“ ์ง€ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์–ด๋ ค์šด๊ฒƒ๋Š”์ง€์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด
15:27
that was considered so discouraging in its prospects.
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๊ฒฝ์˜๋ฅผ ํ‘œํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:30
And we can also remember
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๋˜ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ œ์•ฝ ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด
15:33
how the pharmaceutical companies
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์˜ค๋žฌ๋™์•ˆ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๋˜ ์‘๊ธ‰์ƒํ™ฉ์˜ ๋ฉด์ „์—์„œ,
15:35
were willing to pool their knowledge,
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๊ทธ๋“ค์˜ ์ง€์‹์„ ๊ณต๋™๊ด€๋ฆฌํ•˜๊ณ ,
15:37
to share their knowledge,
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์ง€์‹์„ ๊ณต์œ ํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ
15:39
in the face of an emergency,
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์–ด๋Š์ •๋„์˜ ์˜์ง€๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์—ˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ
15:41
which they hadn't really been for years and years.
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๊ธฐ์–ตํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:44
They might have been able to do it earlier.
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๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ๋” ์ผ์ฐ ๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ํ• ์ˆ˜๋„ ์žˆ์—ˆ์„๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:47
The message, then, for me,
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฌ๋ฉด ์ œ๊ฒŒ๋Š”
15:50
about unintended consequences
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์˜๋„ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๊ฒฐ๊ณผ์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๊ทธ ๋ฉ”์‹œ์ง€๋Š”,
15:52
is chaos happens;
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ํ˜ผ๋ž€์€ ๋ฐœ์ƒํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค;
15:55
let's make better use of it.
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๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด๋‹ค ํšจ์œจ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜๋„๋ก ํ•ฉ์‹œ๋‹ค.
15:57
Thank you very much.
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๋Œ€๋‹จํžˆ ๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
15:59
(Applause)
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(๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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