Seth Berkley: HIV and flu -- the vaccine strategy

Prevodilac: Robert Džudžar Lektor: Ana Zivanovic-Nenadovic

Do you worry about what is going to kill you?

Da li brinete o tome šta će vas ubiti?

Heart disease, cancer,

Srčana bolest, rak,

a car accident?

ili saobraćajna nesreća?

Most of us worry about things we can't control,

Većina nas se brineo stvarima koje su van naše kontrole

like war, terrorism,

kao što su rat, terorizam,

the tragic earthquake that just occurred in Haiti.

ili tragični zemljotres koji se desio na Haitiju.

But what really threatens humanity?

Međutim, šta zapravo preti čovečanstvu?

A few years ago, Professor Vaclav Smil

Pre nekoliko godina, profesor Vaclav Smil

tried to calculate the probability

je pokušao da izračuna verovatnoću

of sudden disasters

iznenadnih katastrofa

large enough to change history.

dovoljno velikih da promene istoriju.

He called these,

Nazvao ih je

"massively fatal discontinuities,"

''masovnim pomorima,''

meaning that they could kill

što bi značilo da mogu ubiti

up to 100 million people

do sto miliona ljudi

in the next 50 years.

u narednih pedeset godina.

He looked at the odds of another world war,

Razmatrao je mogućnosti za još jedan svetsti rat,

of a massive volcanic eruption,

za ogromnu vulkansku erupciju,

even of an asteroid hitting the Earth.

čak i za udar asteroida u Zemlju.

But he placed the likelihood of one such event

Verovatnoću za ozbiljnu pandemiju gripa je stavio

above all others

blizu sto odsto,

at close to 100 percent,

što je iznad

and that is a severe flu pandemic.

do sada svih nabrojanih katastrofa.

Now, you might think of flu

Sada, možete razmišljati o gripu

as just a really bad cold,

kao o stvarno lošoj prehladi.

but it can be a death sentence.

A takodje može biti i smrtna presuda.

Every year, 36,000 people in the United States

Svake godine, 36 hiljada ljudi u Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama

die of seasonal flu.

umre od sezonskog gripa.

In the developing world, the data is much sketchier

U svetu koji se razvija, podaci su mnogo šarolikiji

but the death toll is almost

ali smrtna stopa je skoro

certainly higher.

sigurno viša.

You know, the problem is if

Znate, problem je kada

this virus occasionally mutates

ovaj virus povremeno mutira

so dramatically,

toliko dramatično,

it essentially is a new virus

da je u suštini novi virus

and then we get a pandemic.

pa nas onda zahvati pandemija.

In 1918, a new virus appeared

Novi virus koji se pojavio 1918. godine

that killed some 50 to 100 million people.

ubio je oko pedeset do sto miliona ljudi.

It spread like wildfire

Širio se kao vatra

and some died within hours of developing symptoms.

neki su umirali i nekoliko sati nakon pojava simptoma.

Are we safer today?

Jesmo li sigurniji danas?

Well, we seem to have dodged

Pa, izgleda da smo ove godine

the deadly pandemic this year

izbegli smrtnu pandemiju

that most of us feared,

koje se većina od nas plašila,

but this threat could reappear at any time.

međutim, ova pretnja se može opet pojaviti bilo kada.

The good news is that

Dobre vesti su da

we're at a moment in time

smo u vremenu

when science, technology, globalization is converging

kada nauka, tehnologija, globalizacija teže ka istom

to create an unprecedented possibility:

praveći jedinstvenu mogućnost:

the possibility to make history

mogućnost stvaranja istorije

by preventing infectious diseases

sprečavanjem zaraznih bolesti

that still account for one-fifth of all deaths

koje još uvek obuhvataju jednu petinu svih smrtnih slučajeva

and countless misery on Earth.

i bezbrojnih beda na Zemlji.

We can do this.

Možemo to uraditi.

We're already preventing millions of deaths

Već sprečavamo milione smrtnih slučajeva

with existing vaccines,

sa postojećim vakcinama,

and if we get these to more people,

i ako ih dostavimo do više ljudi,

we can certainly save more lives.

sigurno možemo spasiti više života.

But with new or better vaccines

Sa novim ili boljim vakcinama

for malaria, TB, HIV,

od malarije, TB-a, HIV-a,

pneumonia, diarrhea, flu,

zapaljenja pluća, dijareje, gripa,

we could end suffering

mogli bismo privesti kraju patnji

that has been on the Earth since the beginning of time.

koja je bila prisutna na Zemlji od početka vremena.

So, I'm here to trumpet vaccines for you.

Ovde sam da vam razglasim o vakcinama.

But first, I have to explain why they're important

Prvo, moram objasniti zašto su one važe

because vaccines, the power of them,

jer vakcine, njihova moć,

is really like a whisper.

je zapravo kao šapat.

When they work, they can make history,

Kada rade, mogu stvarati istoriju,

but after a while

dok posle izvesnog vremena

you can barely hear them.

jedva da možete da ih čujete.

Now, some of us are old enough

Sada, neki od nas su dovoljno stari

to have a small, circular scar on our arms

da imaju mali, kružni ožiljak na rukama

from an inoculation we received as children.

od vakcinisanja koje smo primili kao deca.

But when was the last time you worried about smallpox,

A kada ste se zadnji put zabrinuli o malim boginjama,

a disease that killed half a billion people last century

bolesti koja je prošlog veka ubila pola milijarde ljudi,

and no longer is with us?

a koja više nije sa nama?

Or polio? How many of you remember the iron lung?

Ili dečije paralize? Koliko vas pamti gvozdena pluća?

We don't see scenes like this anymore

Više ne vidimo takve situacije

because of vaccines.

zbog vakcina.

Now, it's interesting

Sada, zanimljivo je

because there are 30-odd diseases

pošto postoji tridesetak bolesti

that can be treated with vaccines now,

koje možemo tretirati vakcinama,

but we're still threatened by things like HIV and flu.

a još uvek smo ugroženi stvarima kao što su HIV i grip.

Why is that?

Zbog čega?

Well, here's the dirty little secret.

Evo u čemu je tajna.

Until recently, we haven't had to know

Donedavno, mi nismo tačno znali

exactly how a vaccine worked.

kako su radile vakcine.

We knew they worked through old-fashioned trial and error.

Znali smo da su radile preko staromodnih ispitivanja.

You took a pathogen, you modified it,

Uzmete patogen, izmenite ga,

you injected it into a person or an animal

ubrizgate ga u osobu ili životinju

and you saw what happened.

i gledate šta će se dogoditi.

This worked well for most pathogens,

Ovo je dobro funkcionizalo za većinu patogena,

somewhat well for crafty bugs like flu,

ali manje za lukave bube kao što je grip,

but not at all for HIV,

ali nikako nije za HIV,

for which humans have no natural immunity.

za koji ljudi nemaju prirodni imunitet.

So let's explore how vaccines work.

Istražimo kako vakcine rade.

They basically create a cache

One prvenstveno naprave sklonište oružja

of weapons for your immune system

za vaš imuni sistem

which you can deploy when needed.

koji možete iskoristiti kada je potrebno.

Now, when you get a viral infection,

Sada, kada dobijete virusnu infekciju,

what normally happens is it takes days or weeks

ono što se obično dešava je da su potrebni dani ili nedelje

for your body to fight back

za vaše telo da odreaguje

at full strength,

punom snagom,

and that might be too late.

što može biti prekasno.

When you're pre-immunized,

Kada ste vakcinisani,

what happens is you have forces in your body

dešava se to da imate snage u svom telu

pre-trained to recognize

istrenirane tako da prepoznaju

and defeat specific foes.

i poraze određene uljeze.

So that's really how vaccines work.

Tako zapravo rade vakcine.

Now, let's take a look at a video

Pogledajmo sada snimak

that we're debuting at TED, for the first time,

po prvi put na TED-u

on how an effective HIV vaccine might work.

o tome kako efektivne HIV vakcine mogu raditi.

(Music)

(Muzika)

Narrator: A vaccine trains the body in advance

Pripovedač: vakcina trenira telo unapred

how to recognize and neutralize

kako da prepozna i neutrališe

a specific invader.

određenog napadača.

After HIV penetrates the body's mucosal barriers,

Nakon što HIV probije barijere sluzokože tela,

it infects immune cells to replicate.

on zarazi imune ćelije za obnovu.

The invader draws the attention

Napadač privlači pažnju

of the immune system's front-line troops.

prve linije fronta vojnika imunog sistema.

Dendritic cells, or macrophages,

Dendritske ćelije, ili makrofage,

capture the virus and display pieces of it.

hvataju virus i prikazuju njegove deliće.

Memory cells generated by the HIV vaccine

Memorijske ćelije generisane HIV vakcinom

are activated when they learn

se aktiviraju kada saznaju

HIV is present from the front-line troops.

za prisustvo HIV-a od strane vojnika iz prve linije fronta.

These memory cells immediately deploy

Ove memorijske ćelije odmah isporuče

the exact weapons needed.

oružje koje je potrebno.

Memory B cells turn into plasma cells,

Memorijske B ćelije se pretvore u plazmocite,

which produce wave after wave

koji proizvode talas za talasom

of the specific antibodies

određenih antitela

that latch onto HIV

koji se pričvršćuju na HIV

to prevent it from infecting cells,

i onemogućuju mu inficiranje ćelija,

while squadrons of killer T cells

dok eskadrila ubijačkih T ćelija

seek out and destroy cells

traži i uništava ćelije

that are already HIV infected.

koje su već zaražene HIV-om.

The virus is defeated.

Virus je poražen.

Without a vaccine,

Bez vakcine,

these responses would have taken more than a week.

ovakva reagovanja bi trajala više od nedelju dana.

By that time, the battle against HIV

Za to vreme, bitka protiv HIV-a

would already have been lost.

bi već bila izgubljena.

Seth Berkley: Really cool video, isn't it?

Set Berkli: zaista odličan video, zar ne?

The antibodies you just saw in this video,

Antitela u akciji, koje ste malopre videli na ovom snimku,

in action, are the ones that make most vaccines work.

su upravo ona koja omogućuju rad većini vakcina.

So the real question then is:

Zapravo je pravo pitanje:

How do we ensure that your body makes

kako možemo osigurati da vaše telo proizvodi

the exact ones that we need to protect

tačno ona antitela koja su nam potrebna za zaštitu

against flu and HIV?

protiv gripa i HIV-a?

The principal challenge for both of these viruses

Glavni izazov za oba ova virusa

is that they're always changing.

je taj da se oni uvek menjaju.

So let's take a look at the flu virus.

Pogledajmo na virus gripa.

In this rendering of the flu virus,

U ovom prikazu virusa gripa,

these different colored spikes are what it uses to infect you.

ovi, različito obojeni, šiljci su ti koje koristi da bi vas zarazio.

And also, what the antibodies use is a handle

Takođe i, ono što antitela koriste je ručica

to essentially grab and neutralize the virus.

prvenstveno da uhvate i neutrališu virus.

When these mutate, they change their shape,

Kada oni mutiraju, promene svoj oblik,

and the antibodies don't know what they're looking at anymore.

tako da antitela više ne znaju na šta gledaju.

So that's why every year

Upravo zbog toga svake godine

you can catch a slightly different strain of flu.

možede dobiti malčice drugačiji oblik gripa.

It's also why in the spring,

Takođe zbog toga na proleće,

we have to make a best guess

moramo nagađati

at which three strains are going to prevail the next year,

koji oblici će biti dominantan sledeće godine,

put those into a single vaccine

staviti ih u vakcine

and rush those into production for the fall.

i dati ih u proizvodnju za jesen.

Even worse,

Još gore,

the most common influenza -- influenza A --

najčešći grip -- grip A --

also infects animals

takođe inficira i životinje

that live in close proximity to humans,

koje žive u ljudskoj blizini,

and they can recombine

i koji se mogu rekombinovati

in those particular animals.

u tim određenim životinjama.

In addition, wild aquatic birds

Dodatno, divlje vodene ptice

carry all known strains

nose sve poznate oblike

of influenza.

gripa.

So, you've got this situation:

Tako da imate sledeću situaciju:

In 2003,

imali smo 2003. godine

we had an H5N1 virus

H5N1 virus

that jumped from birds into humans

koji je prešao sa ptica na ljude

in a few isolated cases

u nekoliko izolovanih slučajeva

with an apparent mortality rate of 70 percent.

sa jasnom stopom smrtnosti od sedamdeset odsto.

Now luckily, that particular virus,

Srećom, ovaj poseban virus,

although very scary at the time,

iako jako strašan u to vreme,

did not transmit from person to person

nije se prenosio sa osobe na osobu

very easily.

tako lako.

This year's H1N1 threat

Ovogodišnja pretnja H1N1

was actually a human, avian, swine mixture

je zapravo bila mešavina ljudskog, ptičjeg i svinjskog gripa

that arose in Mexico.

koji je nastao u Meksiku.

It was easily transmitted,

Lako se prenosio,

but, luckily, was pretty mild.

ali, srećom, bio je prilično blag.

And so, in a sense,

Tako, u nekom smislu,

our luck is holding out,

održava nas sreća,

but you know, another wild bird could fly over at anytime.

samo da znate, neka druga divlja ptica može preleteti bilo kada.

Now let's take a look at HIV.

Pogledajmo sada HIV.

As variable as flu is,

Iako promenljiv kao grip,

HIV makes flu

HIV čini da grip

look like the Rock of Gibraltar.

izgleda kao malo ispupčenje.

The virus that causes AIDS

Virus koji uzrokuje SIDU

is the trickiest pathogen

je najprevarljiviji patogen

scientists have ever confronted.

kome su se naučnici ikada suprotstavili.

It mutates furiously,

On opasno mutira,

it has decoys to evade the immune system,

ima mamce za izbegavanje imunog sistema,

it attacks the very cells that are trying to fight it

napada same ćelije koje pokušavaju da se bore sa njim

and it quickly hides itself

i brzo se sakriva

in your genome.

u vašem genomu.

Here's a slide looking at

Evo slajda sa pogledom na

the genetic variation of flu

genetsku varijaciju gripa

and comparing that to HIV,

i upoređujući to sa HIV-om,

a much wilder target.

mnogo divljijom metom.

In the video a moment ago,

U snimku pre nekoliko momenata,

you saw fleets of new viruses launching from infected cells.

videli ste flote novih virusa lansiranih iz zaraženih ćelija.

Now realize that in a recently infected person,

Shvatite sada da u nedavno zaraženoj osobi,

there are millions of these ships;

postoje milioni ovih brodova;

each one is just slightly different.

svaki je samo malčice drugačiji.

Finding a weapon that recognizes

Pronaći oružie koji ih prepoznaje

and sinks all of them

i koje ih sve potapa

makes the job that much harder.

čini posao mnogo težim.

Now, in the 27 years since HIV

Sada, 27 godina nakon identifikacije HIV-a

was identified as the cause of AIDS,

kao uzročnika SIDE,

we've developed more drugs to treat HIV

mi smo razvili više lekova za tretman HIV-a

than all other viruses put together.

nego za sve druge viruse zajedno.

These drugs aren't cures,

Ovi lekovi ne leče,

but they represent a huge triumph of science

već predstavljaju veliki trijumf nauke

because they take away the automatic death sentence

jer oduzimaju automatsku smrtnu kaznu

from a diagnosis of HIV,

od dijagnoze HIV-a,

at least for those who can access them.

bar za one koji mogu doći do njih.

The vaccine effort though is really quite different.

Dejstvo vakcine je zapravo dosta drugačije.

Large companies moved away from it

Velike kompanije su se udaljile od njih

because they thought the science was so difficult

jer su mislile da je nauka jako teška

and vaccines were seen as poor business.

i vakcine su izgledale kao slab biznis.

Many thought that it was just impossible to make an AIDS vaccine,

Mnogi su mislili da je nemoguće proizvesti vakcinu protiv SIDE,

but today, evidence tells us otherwise.

međutim, danas nam dokazi drugačije govore.

In September,

U septembru,

we had surprising but exciting findings

imali smo iznanađujuće i uzbuđujuće zaključke

from a clinical trial that took place in Thailand.

iz kliničkog ispitivanja koje je bilo na Tajlandu.

For the first time, we saw an AIDS vaccine work in humans --

Po prvi put, videli smo rad vakcina protiv SIDE na ljudima --

albeit, quite modestly --

mada, prilično skromno --

and that particular vaccine was made

i baš ta vakcina je napravljena

almost a decade ago.

skoro pre deset godina.

Newer concepts and early testing now

Noviji koncepti i rana testiranja pokazuju sada

show even greater promise in the best of our animal models.

mnogo veća obećanja u našim najboljim životinjskim modelima.

But in the past few months, researchers have also isolated

U proteklih nekoliko meseci, istraživači su takođe izolovali

several new broadly neutralizing antibodies

nekoliko novih, neutralizovanih antitela

from the blood of an HIV infected individual.

iz krvi HIV-pozitivnog pojedinca.

Now, what does this mean?

Sada, što to znači?

We saw earlier that HIV

Videli smo da je HIV

is highly variable,

jako promenjljiv,

that a broad neutralizing antibody

da se široko neutralizujuće antitelo

latches on and disables

zakači i onemogući

multiple variations of the virus.

višestruke promene virusa.

If you take these and you put them

Ako ih stavite

in the best of our monkey models,

na najbolje modele majmuna,

they provide full protection from infection.

oni pružaju potpunu zaštitu od zaraze.

In addition, these researchers found

Pored toga, ovi istraživači su našli

a new site on HIV

novo mesto na HIV-u

where the antibodies can grab onto,

za koje se mogu uhvatiti antitela,

and what's so special about this spot

i ono što je specifično za ovo mesto je

is that it changes very little

da se jako malo menja

as the virus mutates.

pri mutaciji virusa.

It's like, as many times

To je kao, koliko se puta

as the virus changes its clothes,

virus presvuče,

it's still wearing the same socks,

on uvek nosi iste čarape,

and now our job is to make sure

pa je sada naš posao da osiguramo

we get the body to really hate those socks.

da telo zaista zamrzi te čarape.

So what we've got is a situation.

Tako da je to problem.

The Thai results tell us

Rezultati sa Tajlanda nam ukazuju

we can make an AIDS vaccine,

da možemo praviti vakcine protiv SIDE,

and the antibody findings

dok nam pronalasci o antitelima

tell us how we might do that.

govore o tome kako to možemo učiniti.

This strategy, working backwards

Ovakva strategija, radeći unatraške

from an antibody to create a vaccine candidate,

od antitela praviti vakcina,

has never been done before in vaccine research.

nikada ranije nije bila urađena u istraživanju vakcina.

It's called retro-vaccinology,

Zove se retro-vakcinacija,

and its implications extend

i njene primene se protežu

way beyond that of just HIV.

mnogo dalje od HIV-a.

So think of it this way.

Razmišljajte ovako.

We've got these new antibodies we've identified,

Imamo ova nova antitela koje smo identifikovali,

and we know that they latch onto many, many variations of the virus.

i znamo da se ona pričvršćuju na mnoge, mnoge varijacije virusa.

We know that they have to latch onto a specific part,

Znamo da se moraju pričvrstiti na određen deo,

so if we can figure out the precise structure of that part,

ako bi mogli da otkrijemo tačnu strukturu tog dela,

present that through a vaccine,

predstavljenog putem vakcina,

what we hope is we can prompt

ono čemu se nadamo je da možemo brzo navesti

your immune system to make these matching antibodies.

vaš imun sistem da pravi ova odgovarajuća antitela.

And that would create

To bi stvorilo

a universal HIV vaccine.

univerzalnu vakcinu protiv HIV-a.

Now, it sounds easier than it is

Ovo zvuči lakše nego što jeste

because the structure actually looks more like

zato što struktura zapravo izgleda više kao

this blue antibody diagram

ovaj plavi dijagram antitela

attached to its yellow binding site,

zakačen na svoje vezivno žuto mesto,

and as you can imagine, these three-dimensional structures

i kao što možete pretpostaviti, rad na ovim trodimenzionim strukturama

are much harder to work on.

je mnogo teži.

And if you guys have ideas to help us solve this,

Ako neko od vas ima ideje kako bi nam pomogao da rešimo ovo,

we'd love to hear about it.

rado bismo vas saslušali.

But, you know, the research that has occurred from HIV now

Međutim, znate, istraživanje koje se vršilo za HIV sada

has really helped with innovation with other diseases.

je zaista pomoglo i sa inovacijom za druge bolesti.

So for instance, a biotechnology company

Tako na primer, kompanije biotehnologije

has now found broadly neutralizing

su sada pronašla široko neutralizujuća

antibodies to influenza,

antitela od gripa,

as well as a new antibody target on the flu virus.

kao i nove mete antitela na virus gripa.

They're currently making a cocktail --

Oni trenutno prave koktel --

an antibody cocktail -- that can be used to treat

koktel antitela -- koji bi mogao da se koristi

severe, overwhelming cases of flu.

za lečenje ozbiljnih, nadmoćnih slučajeva gripa.

In the longer term, what they can do

Na duži period, oni mogu

is use these tools of retro-vaccinology

da iskoriste alate retro-vakcinacije

to make a preventive flu vaccine.

za pravljenje preventivnih vakcina od gripa.

Now, retro-vaccinology is just one technique

Sada, reto-vakcinacija je samo jedna tehnika

within the ambit of so-called rational vaccine design.

u polju, takozvanih racionalnih dizajna vakcina.

Let me give you another example.

Dozvolite mi da vam dam još jedan primer.

We talked about before the H and N spikes

Ranije smo pričali od H i N šiljcima

on the surface of the flu virus.

na površini virusa gripa.

Notice these other, smaller protuberances.

Primetite ove druge, manje izbočine.

These are largely hidden from the immune system.

One su uglavnom sakrivene od imunog sistema.

Now it turns out that these spots

Ispostavlja se sada da se ove tačke

also don't change much when the virus mutates.

takođe ne menjaju mnogo pri mutaciji virusa.

If you can cripple these with specific antibodies,

Ako bi se one mogle onesposobiti određenim antitelima,

you could cripple all versions of the flu.

mogle bi se onesposobiti sve verzije gripa.

So far, animal tests indicate

Za sada, testiranje na životinjama ukazuje

that such a vaccine could prevent severe disease,

da takve vakcine mogu sprečiti teške bolesti,

although you might get a mild case.

mada se mogu dobiti blaži slučajevi.

So if this works in humans, what we're talking about

Ako ovo funkcioniše za ljude, ono o čemu pričamo je

is a universal flu vaccine,

univerzalna vakcina protiv gripa,

one that doesn't need to change every year

jedna koju ne treba menjati svake godine

and would remove the threat of death.

i koja bi uklonila sve pretnje smrću.

We really could think of flu, then,

Tada bi zaista mogli misliti o gripu,

as just a bad cold.

kao o jednoj lošoj prehladi.

Of course, the best vaccine imaginable

Naravno, najbolje zamišljena vakcina

is only valuable to the extent

je jedino vredna do te mere da je

we get it to everyone who needs it.

damo svima kojima je to potrebno.

So to do that, we have to combine

Da bismo to uradili, moramo kombinovati

smart vaccine design with smart production methods

pametan dizajn vakcine i pametne načine proizvodnje

and, of course, smart delivery methods.

i, naravno, pametne načine dostavljanja.

So I want you to think back a few months ago.

Želim da razmislite unazad par meseci,

In June, the World Health Organization

U junu, Svetska zdravstvena organizacija

declared the first global

je objavila prvu globalnu

flu pandemic in 41 years.

pandemiju gripa u protekle četrdeset jednu godinu.

The U.S. government promised

Vlada SAD-a je obećala

150 million doses of vaccine

sto pedeset miliona doza vakcina

by October 15th for the flu peak.

do petnaestog oktobra, kada je vrhunac gripa.

Vaccines were promised to developing countries.

Vakcine su obećane zemljama u razvoju.

Hundreds of millions of dollars were spent

Potrošeno je stotine miliona dolara

and flowed to accelerating vaccine manufacturing.

i teklo je ubrzavanje proizvodnje vakcina.

So what happened?

Šta se desilo?

Well, we first figured out

Prvo smo shvatili

how to make flu vaccines, how to produce them,

kako napraviti vakcine protiv gripa, kako ih proizvoditi,

in the early 1940s.

ranih 1940-ih godina.

It was a slow, cumbersome process

Bio je to spori, ogroman proces

that depended on chicken eggs,

koji je zavisio od kokošijih jaja,

millions of living chicken eggs.

od miliona živih kokošijih jaja.

Viruses only grow in living things,

Virusi rastu samo u živim stvarima,

and so it turned out that, for flu,

tako da se ispostavilo da su kokošija jaja

chicken eggs worked really well.

za grip, obavljala dobar posao.

For most strains, you could get one to two doses

Za većinu vrsta, mogli ste dobiti jednu do dve doze

of vaccine per egg.

vakcine po jajetu.

Luckily for us,

Srećom po nas,

we live in an era of breathtaking

živimo u eri neverovatnih

biomedical advances.

biomedicinskih napredaka.

So today, we get our flu vaccines from ...

Tako da danas, dobijamo vakcine gipa od ...

chicken eggs,

kokošijih jaja,

(Laughter)

(smeh)

hundreds of millions of chicken eggs.

stotina miliona kokošijih jaja.

Almost nothing has changed.

Skoro se ništa nije promenilo.

The system is reliable

Sistem je pouzdan

but the problem is you never know how well

problem je u tome što nikada ne znate kako će dobro

a strain is going to grow.

vrsta da izraste.

This year's swine flu strain

Ove godine vrsta svinjskog gripa

grew very poorly in early production:

je rasla jako slabo u ranoj proizvodnji:

basically .6 doses per egg.

u osnovi, 6 doza po jajetu.

So, here's an alarming thought.

Evo uznemirujuće pomisli.

What if that wild bird flies by again?

Šta ako ta divlja ptica opry poleti?

You could see an avian strain

Mogli biste videti novu vrstu ptičjeg gripa

that would infect the poultry flocks,

koji bi zarazio živinu,

and then we would have no eggs for our vaccines.

i tada ne bismo imali jaja za naše vakcine.

So, Dan [Barber], if you want

Dakle, Den [berberin], ako želite

billions of chicken pellets

milijarde kokošjih peleta

for your fish farm,

za vaš ribnjak,

I know where to get them.

znam gde ih možete nabaviti.

So right now, the world can produce

Upravo sada, svet može proizvoditi

about 350 million doses

oko 350 miliona doza

of flu vaccine for the three strains,

vakcina od gripa za ove tri vrste,

and we can up that to about 1.2 billion doses

a može se doći do 1.2 milijardi doza

if we want to target a single variant

ako želimo da napadnemo jednu varijantu

like swine flu.

kao što je sivinjski grip-

But this assumes that our factories are humming

Ali ovo pretpostavlja da naše fabrike bruje

because, in 2004,

jer u 2004 godini,

the U.S. supply was cut in half

snabdevanje iz SAD-a je bilo prepolovljeno

by contamination at one single plant.

kontaminacijom jedne biljke.

And the process still takes

Procesu još uvek treba

more than half a year.

više od pola godine.

So are we better prepared

Jesmo li spremniji

than we were in 1918?

nego što smo bili pre 1918.?

Well, with the new technologies emerging now,

Zbog novih tehnologija koje su sada u razvoju,

I hope we can say definitively, "Yes."

nadam se da možemo konačno reći, ''Da.''

Imagine we could produce enough flu vaccine

Zamislite da možemo proizvesti dovoljno vakcina

for everyone in the entire world

sa svakoga na celom svetu

for less than half of what we're currently spending

za upola manje od onoga što sada trošimo

now in the United States.

u SAD-u.

With a range of new technologies, we could.

Uz niz novih tehnologija, mogli bismo.

Here's an example:

Evo primera:

A company I'm engaged with has found

kompanije u kojoj radim je pronašla

a specific piece of the H spike of flu

specifičan deo H šiljka gripa

that sparks the immune system.

koji podstiče imuni sistem.

If you lop this off and attach it

Ako ovo promenite i zakačite

to the tail of a different bacterium,

za kraj različitu bakteriju,

which creates a vigorous immune response,

koja stvara energičan imuni odgovor,

they've created a very powerful flu fighter.

napravili ste veoma moćnog borca protiv gripe.

This vaccine is so small

Ova vakcina je toliko mala

it can be grown in a common bacteria, E. coli.

može se uzgajiti na običnoj bakteriji Ešerihija koli.

Now, as you know, bacteria reproduce quickly --

Kao što znate, bakterije se reprodukuju brže --

it's like making yogurt --

to je kao pravljenje jogurta --

and so we could produce enough swine origin flu

tako da možemo napraviti dovoljno gripa svinjskog porekla

for the entire world in a few factories, in a few weeks,

za ceo svet u novim fabrikama, za nekoliko nedelja,

with no eggs,

bez jaja,

for a fraction of the cost of current methods.

za samo deo troškova od današnjih metoda.

(Applause)

(aplauz)

So here's a comparison of several of these new vaccine technologies.

Evo poređenja nekoliko ovih novih tehnologija vakcina.

And, aside from the radically increased production

Pored radikalno ubrzane proizvodnje

and huge cost savings --

i velike uštede --

for example, the E. coli method I just talked about --

na primer, metodom Ešerihija koli o kojoj sam malo pre pričao --

look at the time saved: this would be lives saved.

pogledajte ušteđeno vreme: ovo bi bili spašeni životi.

The developing world,

Svet u razvitku,

mostly left out of the current response,

uglavnom izostavljen iz trenutne reakcije,

sees the potential of these alternate technologies

vidi potencijal ovih alternativnih tehnologija

and they're leapfrogging the West.

i njihovog skoka na zapad.

India, Mexico and others are already

Indija, Meksiko i drugi, već prave

making experimental flu vaccines,

eksperimentalne vakcine od gripa,

and they may be the first place

i mogu biti prvo mesto

we see these vaccines in use.

gde ćemo videti korišćenje vakcina.

Because these technologies are so efficient

Zbog toga što su ove tehnologije jako efikasne

and relatively cheap,

i relativno jeftine,

billions of people can have access to lifesaving vaccines

milijarde ljudi mogu imati vakcine koje spašavaju život

if we can figure out how to deliver them.

ako smislimo kako da ih razdelimo.

Now think of where this leads us.

Razmislimo o tome gde nas ovo vodi.

New infectious diseases

Javljaju se nove zarazne bolesti

appear or reappear

ili obnavljaju stare

every few years.

svakih nekoliko godina.

Some day, perhaps soon,

Jednog dana, možda uskoro,

we'll have a virus that is going to threaten all of us.

imaćemo virus koji će nam svima zapretiti.

Will we be quick enough to react

Da li ćemo biti dovoljno brzi da reagujemo

before millions die?

pre nego što milioni umru?

Luckily, this year's flu was relatively mild.

Srećom, ovogodišnji grip je bio relativno blag.

I say, "luckily" in part

Kažem ''srećom''

because virtually no one in the developing world

jer praktično niko u državama u razvitku

was vaccinated.

nije bio vakcinisan.

So if we have the political and financial foresight

Tako da ako imamo političko i finansijsko predviđanje

to sustain our investments,

da održimo naše investicije,

we will master these and new tools of vaccinology,

ovladaćemo ovim i novim alatkama vakcinacije

and with these tools we can produce

i sa tim alatima ćemo moći proizvoditi

enough vaccine for everyone at low cost

dovoljno vakcina za sve po maloj ceni

and ensure healthy productive lives.

i osigurati zdrave, produktivne živote.

No longer must flu have to kill half a million people a year.

Grip više ne mora ubiti pola miliona ljudi godišnje.

No longer does AIDS

SIDA više ne mora

need to kill two million a year.

ubiti dva miliona ljudi godišnje.

No longer do the poor and vulnerable

Siromašni i osetljivi više ne moraju

need to be threatened by infectious diseases,

biti ugroženi zaraznim bolestima,

or indeed, anybody.

ili niko, zapravo.

Instead of having Vaclav Smil's

Umesto da imamo Vaclav Smilove

"massively fatal discontinuity" of life,

''masovne pomore'' života,

we can ensure

možemo osigurati

the continuity of life.

kontinuitet života.

What the world needs now are these new vaccines,

Ono što je sada svetu potrebno su ove vakcine,

and we can make it happen.

i mi ih možemo ostvariti.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(aplauz)

Chris Anderson: Thank you.

Kris Anderson: Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(aplauz)

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

So, the science is changing.

Dakle, nauka se menja.

In your mind, Seth -- I mean, you must dream about this --

Po vašem mišljenju, Set -- mislim, mora da sanjate o tome --

what is the kind of time scale

kolika je vremenska skala

on, let's start with HIV,

počnimo od HIV-a,

for a game-changing vaccine that's actually out there and usable?

za preokret vakcina, da su zapravo na tržištu i upotrebljive?

SB: The game change can come at any time,

SB: Preokret može doći bilo kad,

because the problem we have now is

jer smo pokazali da da sa problem koji sada imamo

we've shown we can get a vaccine to work in humans;

možemo naterati vakcine da funkcionišu za ljude:

we just need a better one.

samo su nam potrebne bolje.

And with these types of antibodies, we know humans can make them.

Znamo da ljudi mogu proizvesti ove vrste antitela,

So, if we can figure out how to do that,

Tako da, ako shvatimo kako da to uradimo,

then we have the vaccine,

onda imamo vakcinu,

and what's interesting is there already is

a zanimljivo je da već postoje

some evidence that we're beginning to crack that problem.

neki dokazi da smo na početku rešavanja problema.

So, the challenge is full speed ahead.

Tako da izazov ide punom brzinom napred.

CA: In your gut, do you think it's probably going to be at least another five years?

KA: Po vašem mišljenju, trebaće verovatno najmanje još pet godina?

SB: You know, everybody says it's 10 years,

SB: Znate, svi kažu da treba deset godina,

but it's been 10 years every 10 years.

ali bilo je, na svakih deset godina, deset godina.

So I hate to put a timeline

Tako da mrzim stavljati periode

on scientific innovation,

na naučna otkrića,

but the investments that have occurred are now paying dividends.

ali investicije koje su nastale sada plaćaju dividende.

CA: And that's the same with universal flu vaccine, the same kind of thing?

KA: I isto je sa univerzalnom vakcinom od gripa, ista stvar?

SB: I think flu is different. I think what happened with flu is

SB: Mislim da je sa gripom drugačije. Mislim da je to šta se događa sa gripom

we've got a bunch -- I just showed some of this --

imamo gomilu -- prikazao sam samo nekoliko od njih --

a bunch of really cool and useful technologies that are ready to go now.

gomilu zaista dobrih i korisnih tehnologija koji su spremni za pokretanje.

They look good. The problem has been that,

Izgledaju dobro. Problem je bio što smo mi

what we did is we invested in traditional technologies

ulagali u tradicionalne tehnologije

because that's what we were comfortable with.

jer nam je to odgovaralo.

You also can use adjuvants, which are chemicals you mix.

Možete takođe koristiti adjuvante - hemikalije koje izmešate.

That's what Europe is doing, so we could have diluted out

To je ono što Evropa radi, tako da smo razredili

our supply of flu and made more available,

naše zalihe gripa i omogućili ih više dostupnim,

but, going back to what Michael Specter said,

dok, vraćajući se na ono što je Majkl Spekter rekao,

the anti-vaccine crowd didn't really want that to happen.

grupa koja je protiv vakcina zapravo nije želela da se to desi.

CA: And malaria's even further behind?

KA: A malarija je još dalje?

SB: No, malaria, there is a candidate

SB: Ne, za malariju postoji kandidat

that actually showed efficacy in an earlier trial

koji se pokazao efikasnim u ranom testiranju

and is currently in phase three trials now.

i sada je u fazi tri ispitivanja.

It probably isn't the perfect vaccine, but it's moving along.

Najverovatnije nije savršena vakcina, ali napreduje.

CA: Seth, most of us do work where every month,

KA: Set, većina nas radi posao gde svakog meseca,

we produce something;

napravi nešto;

we get that kind of gratification.

dobijamo zadovoljstvo.

You've been slaving away at this for more than a decade,

Vi se sa time borite više od decenije,

and I salute you and your colleagues for what you do.

i pozdravljam Vas i vaše kolege zbog onoga što radite.

The world needs people like you. Thank you.

Svetu su potrebni ljudi kao što ste vi. Hvala vam.

SB: Thank you.

SB: Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(aplauz)