The case for optimism on climate change | Al Gore

Prevodilac: Aleksandar Korom Lektor: Ivana Korom

I was excited to be a part of the "Dream" theme,

Bio sam uzbuđen što ću biti deo teme "Sanjaj",

and then I found out I'm leading off the "Nightmare?" section of it.

a onda sam saznao da otvaram njenu sekciju "Košmar?"

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And certainly there are things about the climate crisis that qualify.

I zasigurno postoje stvari oko klimatske krize koje se tu mogu svrstati.

And I have some bad news,

I imam neke loše vesti

but I have a lot more good news.

međutim imam mnogo više dobrih vesti.

I'm going to propose three questions

Postaviću tri pitanja,

and the answer to the first one

a odgovor na prvo

necessarily involves a little bad news.

nužno uključuje malo loših vesti.

But -- hang on, because the answers to the second and third questions

Ali - sačekajte, jer su odgovori na drugo i treće pitanje

really are very positive.

zaista veoma pozitivni.

So the first question is, "Do we really have to change?"

Dakle, prvo pitanje je: "Da li zaista moramo da se menjamo?"

And of course, the Apollo Mission, among other things

I naravno, Apolo misija je, između ostalog,

changed the environmental movement,

promenila ekološki pokret,

really launched the modern environmental movement.

zaista lansirala moderan ekološki pokret

18 months after this Earthrise picture was first seen on earth,

18 meseci nakon što je ova fotografija izlaska Zemlje prvi put viđena

the first Earth Day was organized.

prvi Dan Zemlje je organizovan.

And we learned a lot about ourselves

I naučili smo mnogo toga o nama samima

looking back at our planet from space.

gledajući nazad na našu planetu iz svemira.

And one of the things that we learned

I jedna od stvari koje smo naučili

confirmed what the scientists have long told us.

potvrdila je ono što su nam naučnici davno rekli.

One of the most essential facts

Jedna od osvnovnih činjenica

about the climate crisis has to do with the sky.

o klimatskoj krizi ima veze sa nebom.

As this picture illustrates,

Kao što ova slika to ilustruje,

the sky is not the vast and limitless expanse

nebo nije ogroman i bezgraničan prostor

that appears when we look up from the ground.

koji nam se ukazuje kada dignemo pogled od tla.

It is a very thin shell of atmosphere

To je veoma tanak omotač atmosfere

surrounding the planet.

koji obmotava našu planetu.

That right now is the open sewer for our industrial civilization

I to je sada otvorena kanalizacija za našu industrijsku civilizaciju

as it's currently organized.

u ovoj sadašnjoj organizaciji.

We are spewing 110 million tons

Svakih 24 časa izbacujemo 110 miliona tona

of heat-trapping global warming pollution into it every 24 hours,

zagađenja od zadržavanja toplote globalnog zagrevanja

free of charge, go ahead.

u atmosferu, potpuno besplatno.

And there are many sources of the greenhouse gases,

I postoje mnogi izvori gasova staklenih bašti,

I'm certainly not going to go through them all.

i neću prolaziti kroz sve njih.

I'm going to focus on the main one,

Fokusiraću se na glavni,

but agriculture is involved, diet is involved, population is involved.

ali poljoprivreda, ishrana i stanovništvo je uključeno.

Management of forests, transportation,

Upravljanje šumama, saobraćaj,

the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.

okeani, topljenje permafrosta.

But I'm going to focus on the heart of the problem,

Ali fokusiraću se na srž problema, a to je činjenica

which is the fact that we still rely on dirty, carbon-based fuels

da se i dalje oslanjamo na prljavo gorivo na bazi ugljenika

for 85 percent of all the energy that our world burns every year.

za 85% ukupne energije koju sagorimo svake godine.

And you can see from this image that after World War II,

I možete videti na ovoj slici da, nakon II svetskog rata,

the emission rates started really accelerating.

stope emisije su počele zaista da ubrzavaju.

And the accumulated amount of man-made, global warming pollution

I nagomilane količine zagađenja globalnog zagrevanja,

that is up in the atmosphere now

koje je čovek napravio i nalaze se u atmosferi

traps as much extra heat energy as would be released

zadržavaju toliku dodatnu količinu toplotne energije kao kada bi

by 400,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs exploding

400.000 atomskih bombi, kao u Hirošimi,

eksplodiralo svaka 24 sata 365 dana u toku godine.

every 24 hours, 365 days a year.

Fact-checked over and over again,

Ovo je iznova i iznova

conservative, it's the truth.

proverena činjenica i to je istina.

Now it's a big planet, but --

Ovo je velika planeta ali -

(Explosion sound)

(Zvuk eksplozije)

that is a lot of energy,

to je mnogo energije,

particularly when you multiply it 400,000 times per day.

naročito kada se pomnoži 400.000 puta svakog dana.

And all that extra heat energy

I sva ta dodatna količina

is heating up the atmosphere, the whole earth system.

toplotne energije zagreva atmosferu i ceo zemljin sistem.

Let's look at the atmosphere.

Pogledajmo atmosferu.

This is a depiction

Ovo je prikaz

of what we used to think of as the normal distribution of temperatures.

našeg nekadašnjeg shvatanja normalne distribucije temperatura.

The white represents normal temperature days;

Belo predstavlja dane normalnih temperatura;

1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.

period od 1951 do 1980 je proizvoljno izabran.

The blue are cooler than average days,

Plavo su dani hladniji od prosečnih,

the red are warmer than average days.

crveni su dani topliji od prosečnih.

But the entire curve has moved to the right in the 1980s.

Ali cela kriva se pomerila u desno u osamdesetim godinama.

And you'll see in the lower right-hand corner

I videćete u donjem desnom uglu

the appearance of statistically significant numbers

pojavu statistički značajnih brojeva

of extremely hot days.

ekstremno toplih dana.

In the 90s, the curve shifted further.

Devedesetih godina kriva se još pomerila.

And in the last 10 years, you see the extremely hot days

A u poslednjih 10 godina, vidimo ekstremno tople dane

are now more numerous than the cooler than average days.

sada mnogo brojnije u odnosu na dane hladnije od prosečnih.

In fact, they are 150 times more common on the surface of the earth

Zapravo, sada su 150 puta učestaliji na Zemlji

than they were just 30 years ago.

nego što su bili pre 30 godina.

So we're having record-breaking temperatures.

Tako da imamo temperature koje obaraju rekorde.

Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years ever measured with instruments

14 od 15 najtoplijih godina do sada, izmerene pomoću instrumenata,

have been in this young century.

su bile u ovom veku.

The hottest of all was last year.

Najtoplija od svih bila je prošla godina.

Last month was the 371st month in a row

Prošli mesec je bio 371. mesec zaredom

warmer than the 20th-century average.

koji je topliji od prosečnih u 20. veku.

And for the first time, not only the warmest January,

I prvi put, ne samo najtopliji januar,

but for the first time, it was more than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer

već je bilo više od jednog stepena Celzijusa toplije

than the average.

nego prosečno.

These higher temperatures are having an effect on animals,

Ove visoke temperature imaju uticaja na životinje,

plants, people, ecosystems.

biljke, ljude, ekosisteme.

But on a global basis, 93 percent of all the extra heat energy

Ali na globalnom nivou, 93% ukupne dodatne toplotne energije

is trapped in the oceans.

se zadržava u okeanima.

And the scientists can measure the heat buildup

I naučnici mogu da izmere gomilanje toplote

much more precisely now

mnogo preciznije sada

at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,

na svim dubinama: duboko, na sredini okeana

the first few hundred meters.

i na prvih nekoliko stotina metara.

And this, too, is accelerating.

I ovo se, takođe, ubrzava.

It goes back more than a century.

I to ide unazad više od veka.

And more than half of the increase has been in the last 19 years.

Više od polovine tog povećanja se desilo u poslednjih 19 godina.

This has consequences.

Ovo ostavlja posledice.

The first order of consequence:

Prvi stepen posledica:

the ocean-based storms get stronger.

okeanske oluje postaju snažnije.

Super Typhoon Haiyan went over areas of the Pacific

Super tajfun Haijan otišao je preko oblasti Pacifika,

five and a half degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal

skoro 15 stepeni Celzijusa topliji nego što je inače,

before it slammed into Tacloban,

pre nego što se srušio u Takloban

as the most destructive storm ever to make landfall.

i to je bila najrazornija oluja do sada koja je stigla do kopna.

Pope Francis, who has made such a difference to this whole issue,

Papa Franja, koji je imao značajan uticaj na ovu temu,

visited Tacloban right after that.

posetio je Takloban ubrzo posle toga.

Superstorm Sandy went over areas of the Atlantic

Superoluja Sendi otišla je preko oblasti Atlantika,

nine degrees warmer than normal

dvanaest stepeni toplija nego što je inače,

before slamming into New York and New Jersey.

pre nego što se srušila u Njujork i Nju Džerzi.

The second order of consequences are affecting all of us right now.

Drugi stepen posledica utiče na sve nas upravo sada.

The warmer oceans are evaporating much more water vapor into the skies.

Topliji okeani isparavaju mnogo više vodene pare u nebo.

Average humidity worldwide has gone up four percent.

Prosečna vlažnost na svetu se popela više od 4%.

And it creates these atmospheric rivers.

I stvara ove atmosferske reke.

The Brazilian scientists call them "flying rivers."

Brazilski naučnici ih zovu "leteće reke".

And they funnel all of that extra water vapor over the land

One preusmeravaju svu tu dodatnu vodenu paru preko zemlje

where storm conditions trigger these massive record-breaking downpours.

gde uslovi za oluju pokreću ove masivne rekordne pljuskove.

This is from Montana.

Ovo je bilo u Montani.

Take a look at this storm last August.

Pogledajte ovu oluju od prošlog avgusta

As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.

kako se kreće preko Tusona u Arizoni.

It literally splashes off the city.

Bukvalno prska grad.

These downpours are really unusual.

Ovakvi pljuskovi su zaista neuobičajeni.

Last July in Houston, Texas,

Prošlog jula u Hjustonu u Teksasu,

it rained for two days, 162 billion gallons.

ispljuštalo je 613 milijardi litara u dva dana.

That represents more than two days of the full flow of Niagara Falls

To predstavlja više od dva dana Nijagarinih vodopada pod punim pritiskom

in the middle of the city,

u centru grada,

which was, of course, paralyzed.

koji se, naravno, tako paralizovao.

These record downpours are creating historic floods and mudslides.

Ovi rekordni pljuskovi stvaraju istorijske poplave i klizišta.

This one is from Chile last year.

Ovo je iz Čilea, prošle godine.

And you'll see that warehouse going by.

Vidite kako skladište prolazi pored.

There are oil tankers cars going by.

Cisterne naftnih vozila takođe prolaze.

This is from Spain last September,

Ovo je iz Španije, prošlog septembra.

you could call this the running of the cars and trucks, I guess.

Ovo možemo nazvati kretanjem automobila i kamiona, pretpostavljam.

Every night on the TV news now is like a nature hike

TV vesti su sada svake večeri kao šetnja prirodom

through the Book of Revelation.

kroz knjigu Otkrovenja.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I mean, really.

Mislim, zaista.

The insurance industry has certainly noticed,

Industrija osiguranja je svakako zabeležila

the losses have been mounting up.

kako se gubici gomilaju.

They're not under any illusions about what's happening.

Nemaju nikakve iluzije o tome šta se dešava.

And the causality requires a moment of discussion.

A uzročnost zahteva trenutak diskusije.

We're used to thinking of linear cause and linear effect --

Naviknuti smo da razmišljamo - linearni uzrok i linearna posledica:

one cause, one effect.

jedan uzrok, jedna posledica.

This is systemic causation.

Ovo je prouzrokovano sistemski.

As the great Kevin Trenberth says,

Kao što veliki Kevin Trenbert kaže:

"All storms are different now.

"Sve oluje su sada drugačije.

There's so much extra energy in the atmosphere,

Toliko se dodatne energije nalazi u atmosferi,

there's so much extra water vapor.

da ima toliko dodatne vodene pare.

Every storm is different now."

Svaka oluja je sada drugačija."

So, the same extra heat pulls the soil moisture out of the ground

Tako da, ista dodatna toplota izvlači vlažnost iz zemljišta

and causes these deeper, longer, more pervasive droughts

i prouzrokuje ove dublje, duže i obuhvatnije suše

and many of them are underway right now.

i mnoge od njih su u toku sada.

It dries out the vegetation

Isušuju vegetaciju

and causes more fires in the western part of North America.

i izazivaju više požara u zapadnom delu severne Amerike.

There's certainly been evidence of that, a lot of them.

Svakako postoje mnogobrojni dokazi o tome.

More lightning,

Više munja,

as the heat energy builds up, there's a considerable amount

kako se toplotna energija gomila, pojavljuje se

of additional lightning also.

znatna količina dodatnih munja, takođe.

These climate-related disasters also have geopolitical consequences

Ove klimatske katastrofe takođe ostavljaju geopoličitke posledice

and create instability.

i stvaraju nestabilnost.

The climate-related historic drought that started in Syria in 2006

Klimatska istorijska suša koja je počela u Siriji 2006.

destroyed 60 percent of the farms in Syria,

uništila je 60% farmi u Siriji,

killed 80 percent of the livestock,

ubila 80% stoke,

and drove 1.5 million climate refugees into the cities of Syria,

i dovela 1,5 miliona klimatskih izbeglica u gradove Sirije,

where they collided with another 1.5 million refugees

koji su se sudarili sa drugih 1,5 miliona izbeglica

from the Iraq War.

iz rata u Iraku.

And along with other factors, that opened the gates of Hell

Zajedno sa drugim faktorima, to je otvorilo vrata Pakla

that people are trying to close now.

koja ljudi sada pokušavaju da zatvore.

The US Defense Department has long warned

Američko ministarstvo za odbranu je davno upozorilo

of consequences from the climate crisis,

na posledice klimatske krize,

including refugees, food and water shortages

kao što su izbeglice, nedostatak hrane i vode

and pandemic disease.

i pandemije bolesti.

Right now we're seeing microbial diseases from the tropics spread

Sada vidimo bolesti mikroba koje se iz tropskih krajeva

to the higher latitudes;

šire na više visine;

the transportation revolution has had a lot to do with this.

revolucija u transportu ima mnogo veze sa ovim.

But the changing conditions change the latitudes and the areas

Ali promenljivi uslovi menjaju opseg u oblastima

where these microbial diseases can become endemic

gde mikrobijalne bolesti mogu postati endemske

and change the range of the vectors, like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.

i promeniti vektorski opseg, kao i komarci i krpelji koji ih prenose.

The Zika epidemic now --

Kada govorimo o Zika epidemiji -

mi smo bolje pozicionirani ovde u severnoj Americi

we're better positioned in North America

because it's still a little too cool and we have a better public health system.

zato što je još uvek malo hladnije i imamo bolji javni zdravstveni sistem.

But when women in some regions of South and Central America

Ali kada se žene u nekim oblastima južne i centralne Amerike

are advised not to get pregnant for two years --

savetuju da ne zatrudne dve godine -

that's something new, that ought to get our attention.

to je nešto novo, i trebalo bi da dobije našu pažnju.

The Lancet, one of the two greatest medical journals in the world,

"Lanset", jedan od dva najveća medicinska žurnala na svetu,

last summer labeled this a medical emergency now.

prošlog leta je ovo obeležio kao medicinsko vanredno stanje.

And there are many factors because of it.

I postoje mnogi faktori usled toga.

This is also connected to the extinction crisis.

To je takođe povezano sa krizom izumiranja.

We're in danger of losing 50 percent of all the living species on earth

U opasnosti smo da izgubimo 50% svih živih vrsta na Zemlji

by the end of this century.

do kraja ovog veka.

And already, land-based plants and animals

I kopnene biljke i životinje

are now moving towards the poles

se već sele prema polovima

at an average rate of 15 feet per day.

u prosečnoj stopi od 5 metara u toku dana.

Speaking of the North Pole,

Kada već govorimo o severnom polu,

last December 29, the same storm that caused historic flooding

29. decembra prošle godine, ista oluja koja je prouzrokovala

istorijske poplave na američkom srednjem zapadu

in the American Midwest,

raised temperatures at the North Pole

podigla je temperature na severnom polu

50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,

10 stepeni Celzijusa toplije nego što je normalno,

causing the thawing of the North Pole

i time prouzrokovala odmrzavanje severnog pola

in the middle of the long, dark, winter, polar night.

usred duge, mračne, zimske, polarne noći.

And when the land-based ice of the Arctic melts,

A kada se kopneni led Artkika topi,

it raises sea level.

podiže nivo mora.

Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph from Svalbard illustrates this.

Predivna fotografija Pola Niklena iz Svalbarda ilustruje ovo.

It's more dangerous coming off Greenland

Opasnije je kada dolazi sa Grinlenda,

and particularly, Antarctica.

a naročito Antarktika.

The 10 largest risk cities for sea-level rise by population

Deset najvećih rizičnih gradova od podizanja nivoa mora, za stanovništvo,

are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.

su uglavnom na jugu i jugoistoku Azije.

When you measure it by assets at risk, number one is Miami:

Kada se mere po riziku imovine, na prvom mestu je Majami:

three and a half trillion dollars at risk.

tri ipo biliona dolara u riziku.

Number three: New York and Newark.

Na trećem mestu: Njujork i Nevark.

I was in Miami last fall during the supermoon,

Bio sam u Majamiju prošle jeseni za vreme supermeseca,

one of the highest high-tide days.

jednog od najjačih dana visoke plime.

And there were fish from the ocean swimming in some of the streets

I ribe iz okeana su plivale ulicama

of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale

Majami Biča i Fort Loderdejla

and Del Rey.

i Del Reja.

And this happens regularly during the highest-tide tides now.

I ovo se sada dešava redovno za vreme najviših plima.

Not with rain -- they call it "sunny-day flooding."

Ali ne sa kišom - zovu je "sunčana poplava."

It comes up through the storm sewers.

penje se iz olujne kanalizacije.

And the Mayor of Miami speaks for many when he says

I gradonačelnik Majamija govori u ime mnogih kada kaže

it is long past time this can be viewed through a partisan lens.

davno je prošlo vreme kada se ovo može gledati kroz stranačka sočiva.

This is a crisis that's getting worse day by day.

Ovo je kriza koja se pogoršava iz dana u dan.

We have to move beyond partisanship.

Moramo da se odmaknemo od političkih stranaka.

And I want to take a moment to honor these House Republicans --

Želim na trenutak da odam počast ovim vladajućim republikancima -

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

who had the courage last fall

koji su prošle jeseni imali hrabrosti

to step out and take a political risk,

da iskoraknu i naprave politički rizik

by telling the truth about the climate crisis.

rekavši istinu o klimatskoj krizi.

So the cost of the climate crisis is mounting up,

I troškovi klimatske krize se nagomilavaju,

there are many of these aspects I haven't even mentioned.

postoje mnogi ovi aspekti koje nisam ni spomenuo.

It's an enormous burden.

To je ogroman teret.

I'll mention just one more,

Spomenuću samo još jedan

because the World Economic Forum last month in Davos,

jer je svetski ekonomski forum prošlog meseca u Davosu,

after their annual survey of 750 economists,

posle godišnje ankete 750 ekonomista,

said the climate crisis is now the number one risk

rekao da je klimatska kriza sada rizik br. 1

to the global economy.

za globalnu ekonomiju.

So you get central bankers

Tako imate centralne bankare

like Mark Carney, the head of the UK Central Bank,

kao što je Mark Karni, rukovodilac Centralne Banke UK

saying the vast majority of the carbon reserves are unburnable.

koji govori kako je ogromna količina rezervi ugljenika nesagoriva.

Subprime carbon.

Nelikvidan ugljenik.

I'm not going to remind you what happened with subprime mortgages,

Neću vas podsećati šta se desilo sa nelikvidnim hipotekama,

but it's the same thing.

ali isto je.

If you look at all of the carbon fuels that were burned

Ako pogledate svo ugljenikovo gorivo koje je sagorelo

since the beginning of the industrial revolution,

od početka industrijske revolucije,

this is the quantity burned in the last 16 years.

ovo je količina koja je sagorela u poslednjih 16 godina.

Here are all the ones that are proven and left on the books,

Ovde su svi koji su dokazani a levo, po podacima,

28 trillion dollars.

28 biliona dolara.

The International Energy Agency says only this amount can be burned.

Internacionalna Energetska Agencija kaže da samo ova količina može da sagori.

So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --

Tako da je ostatak, 22 biliona dolara -

unburnable.

nesagorivo.

Risk to the global economy.

Rizik za globalnu ekonomiju.

That's why divestment movement makes practical sense

Zato pokret lišavanja ima praktičnog smisla

and is not just a moral imperative.

i nije samo moralno važan.

So the answer to the first question, "Must we change?"

Pa je odgovor na prvo pitanje, "Moramo li se menjati?"

is yes, we have to change.

da, moramo se menjati.

Second question, "Can we change?"

Drugo pitanje: "Možemo li se menjati?"

This is the exciting news!

Ovo je uzbudljiva vest!

The best projections in the world 16 years ago

Pre 16 godina, najbolja predviđanja na svetu

were that by 2010, the world would be able to install

su bila da će svet do 2010 biti u mogućnosti da uvede

30 gigawatts of wind capacity.

30 gigavati vetrovog kapaciteta.

We beat that mark by 14 and a half times over.

Prestigli smo tu oznaku 14 ipo puta.

We see an exponential curve for wind installations now.

Vidimo eksponencijalnu krivu za vetrane instalacije sada.

We see the cost coming down dramatically.

Vidimo da se troškovi dramatično smanjuju.

Some countries -- take Germany, an industrial powerhouse

Neke države - kao npr. Nemačka, industrijska sila

with a climate not that different from Vancouver's, by the way --

sa klimom, ne toliko drugačijom od ove u Vankuveru,

one day last December,

jednog dana prošlog decembra,

got 81 percent of all its energy from renewable resources,

imala je 81% ukupne energije iz obnovljivih izvora

mainly solar and wind.

uglavnom sunca i vetra.

A lot of countries are getting more than half on an average basis.

I mnoge države dobijaju više od pola u proseku.

More good news:

Još dobrih vesti:

energy storage, from batteries particularly,

skladištenje energije, naročito iz akumulatora,

is now beginning to take off

počinje da uzima maha

because the cost has been coming down very dramatically

jer su se troškovi dramatično smanjivali

to solve the intermittency problem.

kako bi rešili problem isprekidanosti.

With solar, the news is even more exciting!

Što se tiče sunčeve energije, vesti su još uzbudljivije!

The best projections 14 years ago were that we would install

Pre 14 godina, najbolja predviđanja su bila da ćemo sprovesti

one gigawatt per year by 2010.

jedan gigavat po godini do 2010.

When 2010 came around, we beat that mark by 17 times over.

Kada je došla 2010. prestigli smo tu cifru 17 puta.

Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.

Prošle godine, prestigli smo je 58 puta.

This year, we're on track to beat it 68 times over.

Ove godine smo na putu da je prestignemo 68 puta.

We're going to win this.

I uspećemo u tome.

We are going to prevail.

Preovladaćemo.

The exponential curve on solar is even steeper and more dramatic.

Ova eksponencijalna kriva kod solarne energije

je još strmija i dramatičnija.

When I came to this stage 10 years ago,

Kada sam došao na ovu binu pre 10 godina,

this is where it was.

kriva je bila ovde.

We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough

Bili smo svedoci revolucionarnog otkrića

in the emergence of these exponential curves.

pojave ovih eksponencijalnih krivih.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And the cost has come down 10 percent per year

I trošak se smanjio 10% godišnje

for 30 years.

za 30 godina.

And it's continuing to come down.

I nastavlja da se smanjuje.

Now, the business community has certainly noticed this,

I poslovna zajednica je ovo svakako primetila,

because it's crossing the grid parity point.

jer prelazi tačku na mreži pariteta.

Cheaper solar penetration rates are beginning to rise.

Prodor jeftinijih solarnih stopa počinju da se pojavljuju.

Grid parity is understood as that line, that threshold,

Mreža pariteta se objašnjava kao ta linija, taj prag

below which renewable electricity is cheaper than electricity

ispod kojeg je obnovljiva struja jeftinija od struje koja se dobija

from burning fossil fuels.

sagorevanjem fosilnih goriva.

That threshold is a little bit like the difference

Taj prag je otprilike kao razlika

between 32 degrees Fahrenheit and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,

između 32 i 33 stepeni Farenhajta,

or zero and one Celsius.

ili nula i 1 stepen Celzijusa.

It's a difference of more than one degree,

To je razlika veća od jednog stepena,

it's the difference between ice and water.

to je razlika između leda i vode.

And it's the difference between markets that are frozen up,

To je razlika između tržišta koje je zamrznuto,

and liquid flows of capital into new opportunities for investment.

i protoka kapitala u nove prilike za investicije.

This is the biggest new business opportunity

Ovo je najveća nova poslovna prilika

in the history of the world,

u istoriji sveta,

and two-thirds of it is in the private sector.

i njene dve trećine su u privatnom sektoru.

We are seeing an explosion of new investment.

Vidimo eksploziju novih investicija.

Starting in 2010, investments globally in renewable electricity generation

Od 2010. godine investicije, globalno, u obnovljive električne generacije

surpassed fossils.

prestigle su fosilne.

The gap has been growing ever since.

I raskorak od tada raste.

The projections for the future are even more dramatic,

Predviđanja za budućnost su još dramatičnija,

even though fossil energy is now still subsidized

iako je fosilna energija još uvek subvencionisana

at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.

u meri 40 puta većoj od obnovljive.

And by the way, if you add the projections for nuclear on here,

Inače, ako biste ovde dodali predviđanja i za nuklearnu energiju,

particularly if you assume that the work many are doing

naročito ako pretpostavimo posao koji mnogi rade

to try to break through to safer and more acceptable,

u pokušajima da se probiju do bezbednije i prihvatljivije

more affordable forms of nuclear,

i dostupnije oblike nuklearne energije,

this could change even more dramatically.

ovo bi moglo da se promeni još dramatičnije.

So is there any precedent for such a rapid adoption

Dakle, da li postoji ikakav presedan za tako brzo usvajanje

of a new technology?

nove tehnologije?

Well, there are many, but let's look at cell phones.

Postoje mnogi, ali hajde da pogledamo mobilne telefone.

In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,

Godine 1980. AT&T pa onda Ma Bell, angažovali su MekKinsija

commissioned McKinsey to do a global market survey

da uradi globalno marketinško istraživanje

of those clunky new mobile phones that appeared then.

onih budžastih novih mobilnih telefona koji su se tada pojavili.

"How many can we sell by the year 2000?" they asked.

"Koliko možemo da ih prodamo do 2000. godine?" pitali su.

McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."

MekKinsi im je odgovorio "900.000".

And sure enough, when the year 2000 arrived,

I svakako, kad je došla 2000. godina,

they did sell 900,000 -- in the first three days.

oni jesu prodali 900.000 - u prva tri dana.

And for the balance of the year, they sold 120 times more.

Na godišnjem bilansu, prodali su 120 puta više.

And now there are more cell connections than there are people in the world.

I sada postoji više mobilnih veza nego što postoji ljudi na svetu.

So, why were they not only wrong, but way wrong?

Zašto su, ne samo pogrešili, nego toliko pogrešili?

I've asked that question myself, "Why?"

Pita sam se i sam, "Zašto?"

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And I think the answer is in three parts.

I mislim da je odgovor u tri dela.

First, the cost came down much faster than anybody expected,

Prvo, troškovi su se smanjili mnogo više nego što je bilo ko očekivao,

even as the quality went up.

čak i kada je kvalitet rastao.

And low-income countries, places that did not have a landline grid --

I države sa niskim prihodom, mesta koja nisu imala

pokrivenost fiksne telefonije - preskočila su na novu tehnologiju.

they leap-frogged to the new technology.

The big expansion has been in the developing counties.

Velika ekspanzija je bila u zemljama u razvoju.

So what about the electricity grids in the developing world?

Pa šta je onda sa električnom pokrivenošću u zemljama u razvoju?

Well, not so hot.

Pa, nije baš aktuelna.

And in many areas, they don't exist.

I u mnogim oblastima, ne postoji.

There are more people without any electricity at all in India

U Indiji postoji više ljudi bez ikakve električne energije

than the entire population of the United States of America.

nego cela populacija Sjedinjenih Američkih Država.

So now we're getting this:

I tako dobijamo ovo:

solar panels on grass huts

solarne panele na kolibama od trske

and new business models that make it affordable.

i nove poslovne modele kojima su one dostupne.

Muhammad Yunus financed this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.

Muhamed Junus je finansirao ovu u Bangladešu sa mikro-kreditom.

This is a village market.

Ovo je seoska pijaca.

Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying country in the world:

Bangladeš je sada država najbržeg razvitka u svetu:

two systems per minute on average, night and day.

dva sistema u minuti, u proseku, noć i dan.

And we have all we need:

I imamo sve što nam je potrebno:

enough energy from the Sun comes to the earth

dovoljno sunčane energije dolazi do Zemlje

every hour to supply the full world's energy needs for an entire year.

svakog sata, da snabde celokupnu energiju sveta za jednu celu godinu.

It's actually a little bit less than an hour.

Zapravo je malo manje od jednog sata.

So the answer to the second question, "Can we change?"

Tako da odgovor na drugo pitanje "Da li možemo da se menjamo?"

is clearly "Yes."

je očigledno "Da".

And it's an ever-firmer "yes."

I to je najjače do sada "Da".

Last question, "Will we change?"

Poslednje pitanje, "Da li ćemo se promeniti?"

Paris really was a breakthrough,

Pariz je zaista bio prodor,

some of the provisions are binding

neke od odredbi su obavezujuće

and the regular reviews will matter a lot.

i redovni izveštaji će mnogo značiti.

But nations aren't waiting, they're going ahead.

Ali nacije ne čekaju, one idu napred.

China has already announced that starting next year,

Kina je već najavila da će od početka sledeće godine

they're adopting a nationwide cap and trade system.

usvojiti sistem "trgovine zagađenjem" širom države.

They will likely link up with the European Union.

Verovatno će se spojiti sa Evropskom Unijom.

The United States has already been changing.

Sjedinjene Države se već menjaju.

All of these coal plants were proposed

Sve ove fabrike na ugalj koje su bile predviđene

in the next 10 years and canceled.

u narednih 10 godina su otkazane.

All of these existing coal plants were retired.

Sve ove postojeće fabrike na ugalj su se povukle.

All of these coal plants have had their retirement announced.

Sve ove fabrike na ugalj su najavile povlačenje.

All of them -- canceled.

Sve - otkazane.

We are moving forward.

Idemo napred.

Last year -- if you look at all of the investment

Ako pogledate sve prošlogodišnje investicije

in new electricity generation in the United States,

u nove električne generacije u Sjedinjenim Državama,

almost three-quarters was from renewable energy,

skoro tri četvrtine su bile u obnovljive energije,

mostly wind and solar.

uglavnom vetar i sunce.

We are solving this crisis.

Rešavamo krizu.

The only question is: how long will it take to get there?

Jedino je pitanje: koliko će nam trebati da dođemo do toga?

So, it matters that a lot of people are organizing

Stoga je veoma važno što se ljudi organizuju

to insist on this change.

da insistiraju na ovoj promeni.

Almost 400,000 people marched in New York City

Skoro 400.000 ljudi je marširalo gradom Njujorka

before the UN special session on this.

pre nego što je počela specijalna sesija UN-a o ovome.

Many thousands, tens of thousands,

Mnogo stotina, desetine stotina,

marched in cities around the world.

marširali su gradovima širom sveta.

And so, I am extremely optimistic.

I zato sam ekstremno optimističan.

As I said before, we are going to win this.

Kao što sam rekao ranije, uspećemo u tome.

I'll finish with this story.

Završiću ovom pričom.

When I was 13 years old,

Kada sam imao 13 godina,

I heard that proposal by President Kennedy

čuo sam predlog predsednika Kenedija

to land a person on the Moon and bring him back safely

da iskrcaju osobu na Mesec i da je bezbedno vrate,

in 10 years.

kroz 10 godina.

And I heard adults of that day and time say,

I čuo sam odrasle u to vreme kako govore,

"That's reckless, expensive, may well fail."

"To je nesmotreno, skupo, verovatno će propasti."

But eight years and two months later,

Ali osam godina i dva meseca kasnije,

in the moment that Neil Armstrong set foot on the Moon,

u trenutku kada je Nil Armstrong zakoračio na Mesec,

there was great cheer that went up in NASA's mission control in Houston.

bilo je veliko klicanje u Nasinom kontrolnom centru u Hjustonu.

Here's a little-known fact about that:

Evo jedne manje poznate činjenice u vezi sa tim:

the average age of the systems engineers,

prosečna starost sistemskih inženjera,

the controllers in the room that day, was 26,

kontrolora u toj prostoriji tog dana, je bila 26,

which means, among other things,

što znači da, između ostalog,

their age, when they heard that challenge, was 18.

kada su čuli taj izazov, imali su 18 godina.

We now have a moral challenge

Sada imamo moralni izazov

that is in the tradition of others that we have faced.

koji je u tradiciji sa ostalima sa kojima smo se susreli.

One of the greatest poets of the last century in the US,

Jedan od najvećih pesnika prošlog veka u Sjedinjenim Državama

Wallace Stevens,

Volas Stivens,

wrote a line that has stayed with me:

napisao je stih koji je i dalje u meni:

"After the final 'no,' there comes a 'yes,'

"Nakon konačnog "ne", dolazi "da",

and on that 'yes', the future world depends."

i od tog "da", budući svet zavisi."

When the abolitionists started their movement,

Kada su abolicionisti osnovali svoj pokret,

they met with no after no after no.

susreli su se sa ne nakon ne nakon ne.

And then came a yes.

I onda je došlo da.

The Women's Suffrage and Women's Rights Movement

Pravo glasa žena i Desničarski pokret žena

met endless no's, until finally, there was a yes.

beskrajno se sreo sa ne dok konačno nije bilo da.

The Civil Rights Movement, the movement against apartheid,

Pokret prava građana, pokret protiv rasne diskriminacije,

and more recently, the movement for gay and lesbian rights

i skorašnji, pokret za prava gejeva i lezbejki

here in the United States and elsewhere.

ovde u Sjedinjenim Državama i drugde.

After the final "no" comes a "yes."

Posle konačnog "ne" dolazi "da".

When any great moral challenge is ultimately resolved

Kada se bilo koji moralni izazov na kraju razloži

into a binary choice between what is right and what is wrong,

u binarni izbor između toga šta je ispravno, a šta pogrešno

the outcome is fore-ordained because of who we are as human beings.

rezultat je predodređen zbog toga ko smo mi kao ljudska bića.

Ninety-nine percent of us, that is where we are now

Nas 99%; zato smo tu gde smo sada

and it is why we're going to win this.

i zato ćemo uspeti u tome.

We have everything we need.

Imamo sve što nam je potrebno.

Some still doubt that we have the will to act,

Neki još uvek sumnjaju da imamo volje da delamo,

but I say the will to act is itself a renewable resource.

ali ja kažem da je sama volja za delovanjem obnovljiv izvor.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible combination of skills.

Kris Anderson: Imate neverovatnu kombinaciju veština.

You've got this scientist mind that can understand

Imate um naučnika za razumevanje

the full range of issues,

celog spektra problema,

and the ability to turn it into the most vivid language.

i sposobnost da ih pretvorite u najživopisniji jezik.

No one else can do that, that's why you led this thing.

Niko drugi to ne može, zato vi to predvodite.

It was amazing to see it 10 years ago, it was amazing to see it now.

Bilo je neverovatno videti to pre 10 godina, a i sada.

Al Gore: Well, you're nice to say that, Chris.

Al Gor: Pa, zaista lepe reči, Kris.

But honestly, I have a lot of really good friends

Ali iskreno, imam mnogo zaista dobrih prijatelja

in the scientific community who are incredibly patient

u naučnoj zajednici koji su neverovatno strpljivi

and who will sit there and explain this stuff to me

i koji će sedeti tu i objasniti mi te stvari

over and over and over again

iznova i iznova

until I can get it into simple enough language

dok ih ne prevedem u dovoljno jednostavan jezik

that I can understand it.

koji mogu da razumem.

And that's the key to trying to communicate.

I to je ključ u pokušavanju komuniciranja.

CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,

KA: Dakle, Vaš govor. Prvi deo: prestravljujući,

second part: incredibly hopeful.

drugi deo: neverovatno obećavajući.

How do we know that all those graphs, all that progress, is enough

Kako da znamo da su svi ti grafikoni, sav taj napredak - dovoljni

to solve what you showed in the first part?

da reše ono što ste pokazali u prvom delu?

AG: I think that the crossing --

AG: Mislim da je ukrštanje -

you know, I've only been in the business world for 15 years.

znate, u poslovnom svetu sam 15 godina.

But one of the things I've learned is that apparently it matters

Ali jedna stvar koju sam naučio je da je očigledno bitno

if a new product or service is more expensive

ako je nov proizvod, ili usluga, skuplji

than the incumbent, or cheaper than.

od zvaničnog, ili jeftiniji od njega.

Turns out, it makes a difference if it's cheaper than.

Ispostavilo se da ima razlike ako je jeftiniji.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And when it crosses that line,

I kada pređe tu granicu,

then a lot of things really change.

onda se mnoge stvari promene.

We are regularly surprised by these developments.

Redovno se iznenađujemo ovakvim razvojima.

The late Rudi Dornbusch, the great economist said,

Pokojni Rudi Dornbuš, veliki ekonomista, je rekao:

"Things take longer to happen then you think they will,

"Stvarima je potrebno više vremena da se dese, nego što mislite,

and then they happen much faster than you thought they could."

a onda se dese mnogo brže nego što ste mislili da mogu."

I really think that's where we are.

Zaista mislim da smo i mi tu.

Some people are using the phrase "The Solar Singularity" now,

Neki ljudi sada koriste frazu "solarna jedinstvenost"

meaning when it gets below the grid parity,

misleći da, kada dospemo ispod mrežnog pariteta,

unsubsidized in most places,

nesubvencionisani u većini mesta,

then it's the default choice.

to je jedini izbor.

Now, in one of the presentations yesterday, the jitney thing,

U jednoj prezentaciji juče, priča oko taksista,

there is an effort to use regulations to slow this down.

postoje napori da se koriste propisi kako bi se ovo usporilo.

And I just don't think it's going to work.

Ali ja mislim da to neće uspeti.

There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,

Jedna žena u Atlanti, Debi Duli,

who's the Chairman of the Atlanta Tea Party.

je predsedavajuća partije "Atlanta Tea".

They enlisted her in this effort to put a tax

Nju su zadužili, u tim naporima,

on solar panels and regulations.

da uvede takse i propise na solarne panele.

And she had just put solar panels on her roof

Pri tom je i sama postavila solarne panele na svoj krov

and she didn't understand the request.

i nije razumela šta se od nje traži.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And so she went and formed an alliance with the Sierra Club

Pa je tako formirala udruženje sa klubom Siera

and they formed a new organization called the Green Tea Party.

i oni su osnovali novu organizaciju pod nazivom "Green Tea".

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

And they defeated the proposal.

I oni su poništili predlog.

So, finally, the answer to your question is,

I konačno, odgovor na Vaše pitanje je,

this sounds a little corny and maybe it's a cliché,

ovo zvuči malo otrcano i možda je i kliše,

but 10 years ago -- and Christiana referred to this --

ali pre 10 godina - i Kristijana je ovo spomenula -

there are people in this audience who played an incredibly significant role

bilo je ljudi u ovoj publici koji su imali neverovatno značajnu ulogu

in generating those exponential curves.

u dobijanju onih eksponencijalnih krivih.

And it didn't work out economically for some of them,

I nekima nije uspelo ekonomski,

but it kick-started this global revolution.

ali se pokrenula globalna revolucija.

And what people in this audience do now

Ali šta će ljudi u ovoj publici

with the knowledge that we are going to win this.

uraditi sada sa saznanjem da ćemo uspeti u tome.

But it matters a lot how fast we win it.

Ali veoma je važno koliko brzo ćemo uspeti.

CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.

KA: Al, ovo je bilo izuzetno jako.

If this turns out to be the year,

Ako se ispostavi da je ovo godina

that the partisan thing changes,

kada će se promeniti pitanje stranaka,

as you said, it's no longer a partisan issue,

kao što ste rekli, nije više pitanje stranaka,

but you bring along people from the other side together,

i dovodite ljude sa druge strane, takođe,

backed by science, backed by these kinds of investment opportunities,

sa naučnom potkovanošću,

koji su podržani ovakvim investicionim prilikama,

backed by reason that you win the day --

predznanjem da ćete uspeti -

boy, that's really exciting.

kako je to samo uzbudljivo.

Thank you so much.

Hvala Vam mnogo.

AG: Thank you so much for bringing me back to TED.

AG: Hvala Vama mnogo što ste me doveli ponovo na TED.

Thank you!

Hvala!

(Applause)

(Aplauz)