The case for optimism on climate change | Al Gore

Prevoditelj: Maja Covic Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

I was excited to be a part of the "Dream" theme,

Bio sam uzbuđen što sam dio tima iz "snova",

and then I found out I'm leading off the "Nightmare?" section of it.

a tada sam saznao da sam započeo dio sna koji je noćna mora.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And certainly there are things about the climate crisis that qualify.

Zasigurno ima aspekata klimatske krize koji ulaze u tu kategoriju.

And I have some bad news,

Imam neke loše vijesti za vas,

but I have a lot more good news.

ali još više je dobrih vijesti.

I'm going to propose three questions

Predložit ću tri pitanja

and the answer to the first one

i odgovor na prvo pitanje

necessarily involves a little bad news.

nužno uključuje malo loših vijesti.

But -- hang on, because the answers to the second and third questions

No -- pričekajte, jer su odgovori na drugo i treće pitanje

really are very positive.

zaista pozitivni.

So the first question is, "Do we really have to change?"

Prvo pitanje je, "Moramo li se doista promijeniti?"

And of course, the Apollo Mission, among other things

Naravno, Misija Apollo je među ostalima,

changed the environmental movement,

promijenila ekološki pokret,

really launched the modern environmental movement.

zaista je pokrenula moderni ekološki pokret.

18 months after this Earthrise picture was first seen on earth,

18 mjeseci nakon što je ova slika po prvi puta viđena na Zemlji,

the first Earth Day was organized.

organizirali smo prvi Dan Planeta Zemlje.

And we learned a lot about ourselves

Naučili smo mnogo o sebi

looking back at our planet from space.

promatrajući naš planet iz svemira.

And one of the things that we learned

Jedna od stvari koje smo naučili

confirmed what the scientists have long told us.

potvrdila je to što su nam znanstvenici dugo govorili.

One of the most essential facts

Jedna od ključnih činjenica

about the climate crisis has to do with the sky.

vezana uz klimatsku krizu tiče se neba.

As this picture illustrates,

Kako ova slika prikazuje,

the sky is not the vast and limitless expanse

nebo nije nepregledan i beskrajan prostor

that appears when we look up from the ground.

koji vidimo kada dignemo pogled s tla.

It is a very thin shell of atmosphere

Ono je vrlo tanki omotač atmosfere

surrounding the planet.

koji okružuje planet.

That right now is the open sewer for our industrial civilization

To je trenutno otvorena kanalizacija naše industrijske civilizacije,

as it's currently organized.

tako je trenutno organizirana.

We are spewing 110 million tons

Svakih 24 sata u nju ubacimo 110 milijuna tona

of heat-trapping global warming pollution into it every 24 hours,

zagađivača koji zadržavaju toplinu i uzrokuju globalno zatopljenje,

free of charge, go ahead.

bez naknade, samo izvolite.

And there are many sources of the greenhouse gases,

Postoji mnogo izvora stakleničkih plinova,

I'm certainly not going to go through them all.

i neću proći kroz sve njih.

I'm going to focus on the main one,

Fokusirat ću se na glavni izvor,

but agriculture is involved, diet is involved, population is involved.

no uključuje poljoprivredu, prehranu i populaciju.

Management of forests, transportation,

Održavanje šuma, prijevoz,

the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.

oceane, otapanje područja vječnog leda.

But I'm going to focus on the heart of the problem,

No, fokusirat ću se na središte problema,

which is the fact that we still rely on dirty, carbon-based fuels

koje je činjenica da se još uvijek oslanjamo na prljava ugljična goriva

for 85 percent of all the energy that our world burns every year.

za 85 posto ukupne energije koju naš svijet sagori svake godine.

And you can see from this image that after World War II,

Ovdje možete vidjeti da se nakon Drugog svjetskog rata

the emission rates started really accelerating.

ispuštanje plinova počelo ubrzavati.

And the accumulated amount of man-made, global warming pollution

Akumulirana količina naših zagađivača koji uzokuju globalno zatopljenje

that is up in the atmosphere now

sada se nalaze u atmosferi

traps as much extra heat energy as would be released

i zadržava istu količinu dodatne toplinske energije koja bi bila oslobođena

by 400,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs exploding

pri eksploziji četiristo tisuća hirošimskih atomskih bombi

every 24 hours, 365 days a year.

svakih 24 sata, 365 dana u godini.

Fact-checked over and over again,

Taj podatak je opetovano

conservative, it's the truth.

bio provjeravan i istinit je.

Now it's a big planet, but --

Imamo veliki planet, ali --

(Explosion sound)

(zvuk eksplozije)

that is a lot of energy,

to je jako puno energije,

particularly when you multiply it 400,000 times per day.

pogotovo kada je pomnožite sa četiristo tisuća puta po danu.

And all that extra heat energy

Sva ta dodatna toplinska energija

is heating up the atmosphere, the whole earth system.

zagrijava atmosferu, cijeli sustav Zemlje.

Let's look at the atmosphere.

Pogledajmo atmosferu.

This is a depiction

Ovo je opis

of what we used to think of as the normal distribution of temperatures.

onoga što smo nekoć smatrali normalnom raspodjelom temperatura.

The white represents normal temperature days;

Bijela boja predstavlja normalne dnevne temperature;

1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.

razdoblje od 1951. do 1980. odabrano je proizvoljno.

The blue are cooler than average days,

Plava su ispodprosječno hladni dani,

the red are warmer than average days.

crvena iznadprosječno topli dani.

But the entire curve has moved to the right in the 1980s.

No cijela se krivulja premjestila udesno u 1980-ima.

And you'll see in the lower right-hand corner

Uočit ćete u donjem desnom kutu

the appearance of statistically significant numbers

pojavu statistički značajnog broja

of extremely hot days.

ekstremno vrućih dana.

In the 90s, the curve shifted further.

U 90-ima se krivulja pomaknula još dalje.

And in the last 10 years, you see the extremely hot days

U zadnjih 10 godina, vidite da su ekstremno vrući dani

are now more numerous than the cooler than average days.

brojniji nego ispodprosječno hladni dani.

In fact, they are 150 times more common on the surface of the earth

Oni su zapravo 150 puta češći na površini Zemlje

than they were just 30 years ago.

nego što su to bili samo 30 godina unazad.

So we're having record-breaking temperatures.

Imamo rekordne temperature.

Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years ever measured with instruments

Četrnaest od petnaest najtoplijih godina ikada zabilježenih instrumentima

have been in this young century.

pripadaju ovome stoljeću.

The hottest of all was last year.

Prošla godina bila je najtoplija od svih.

Last month was the 371st month in a row

Zadnji mjesec bio je 371. mjesec koji je razredom

warmer than the 20th-century average.

bio topliji od prosjeka u 20. stoljeću.

And for the first time, not only the warmest January,

Po prvi puta, nismo imali samo najtopliji siječanj,

but for the first time, it was more than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer

već je bilo više od dva stupnja Fahrenheita toplije

than the average.

od prosjeka.

These higher temperatures are having an effect on animals,

Ove visoke temperature utječu na životinje,

plants, people, ecosystems.

biljke, ljude, ekosustave.

But on a global basis, 93 percent of all the extra heat energy

No na globalnoj osnovi, 93 posto ukupne suvišne toplinske energije

is trapped in the oceans.

zatočeno je u oceanima.

And the scientists can measure the heat buildup

Znanstvenici sada mogu izmjeriti povisivanje topline

much more precisely now

mnogo preciznije

at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,

na svim dubinama: duboko, na polovici dubine,

the first few hundred meters.

u prvih nekoliko stotina metara.

And this, too, is accelerating.

Ovo se također ubrzava.

It goes back more than a century.

Sve je počelo prije više od jednog stoljeća.

And more than half of the increase has been in the last 19 years.

Više od polovice rasta temperature odvilo se u zadnjih 19 godina.

This has consequences.

Ovo dolazi s posljedicama.

The first order of consequence:

Prva posljedica:

the ocean-based storms get stronger.

oluje koje stvaraju oceani se pojačavaju.

Super Typhoon Haiyan went over areas of the Pacific

Super tajfun Haiyan prošao je pacifičkim područjima

five and a half degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal

topliji za pet i pol stupnjeva Fahrenheita nego što je to normalno

before it slammed into Tacloban,

prije nego je pogodio Tacloban,

as the most destructive storm ever to make landfall.

kao najrazornija oluja koja je ikad pogodila kopno.

Pope Francis, who has made such a difference to this whole issue,

Papa Franjo, koji je toliko govorio o ovome problemu,

visited Tacloban right after that.

posjetio je Tacloban odmah nakon oluje.

Superstorm Sandy went over areas of the Atlantic

Superoluja Sandy prešla je područja Atlantika

nine degrees warmer than normal

devet stupnjeva toplija nego što je to normalno

before slamming into New York and New Jersey.

prije nego je pogodila New York i New Jersey.

The second order of consequences are affecting all of us right now.

Druga posljedica trenutno nas sve pogađa.

The warmer oceans are evaporating much more water vapor into the skies.

Topliji oceani isparavaju mnogo više vodene pare u nebo.

Average humidity worldwide has gone up four percent.

Prosječna vlaga diljem svijeta porasla je za četiri posto.

And it creates these atmospheric rivers.

Ona stvara atmosferske rijeke.

The Brazilian scientists call them "flying rivers."

Brazilski znanstvenici nazivaju ih "leteće rijeke."

And they funnel all of that extra water vapor over the land

One slijevaju svu tu suvišnu vodenu paru nad kopno

where storm conditions trigger these massive record-breaking downpours.

gdje uvjeti za oluje uzrokuju te obilne rekordne kiše.

This is from Montana.

Ovo je iz Montane.

Take a look at this storm last August.

Pogledajte ovu oluju iz prošlog kolovoza.

As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.

Kako prelazi preko Tucsona u Arizoni.

It literally splashes off the city.

Doslovno je izbrisala cijeli grad.

These downpours are really unusual.

Ovakve kiše zaista su neuobičajene.

Last July in Houston, Texas,

Prošlog srpnja u Hustonu u Texasu,

it rained for two days, 162 billion gallons.

kiša je padala dva dana, 613 milijardi litara.

That represents more than two days of the full flow of Niagara Falls

To je više nego što u dva dana prođe vode na Nijagarinim slapovima

in the middle of the city,

u središtu grada,

which was, of course, paralyzed.

koji je bio paraliziran.

These record downpours are creating historic floods and mudslides.

Ove rekordne kiše stvaraju povijesne poplave i klizišta.

This one is from Chile last year.

Ovo je bilo prošle godine u Čile.

And you'll see that warehouse going by.

Vidite kako nosi ono skladiše.

There are oil tankers cars going by.

Nosi i cisterne s naftom.

This is from Spain last September,

Ovo je bilo prošlog rujna u Španjolskoj,

you could call this the running of the cars and trucks, I guess.

možete ovo nazvati utrkom auta i kamiona.

Every night on the TV news now is like a nature hike

Svake večeri na vijestima čini nam se da gledamo prizore

through the Book of Revelation.

iz Otkrivenja.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

I mean, really.

Zaista.

The insurance industry has certainly noticed,

Osiguravajuće tvrke nedavno su uočile,

the losses have been mounting up.

porast gubitaka.

They're not under any illusions about what's happening.

Nemaju nikakve sumnje u to što se događa.

And the causality requires a moment of discussion.

Nesreće zahtijevaju diskusiju.

We're used to thinking of linear cause and linear effect --

Navikli smo zamišljati linearnu uzročno-posljedičnu vezu,

one cause, one effect.

jedan uzrok, jedna posljedica.

This is systemic causation.

Ovdje se radi o sistemskoj prouzrokovanosti.

As the great Kevin Trenberth says,

Kako je veliki Kevin Trenberth rekao,

"All storms are different now.

"Sve su oluje sada drukčije.

There's so much extra energy in the atmosphere,

Toliko je dodatne energije u atmosferi,

there's so much extra water vapor.

toliko dodatne vodene pare.

Every storm is different now."

Svaka oluja je sada drukčija."

So, the same extra heat pulls the soil moisture out of the ground

Višak topline izvlači vlagu iz tla

and causes these deeper, longer, more pervasive droughts

i uzrokuje ove dublje, dulje i rasprostranjenije suše,

and many of them are underway right now.

i mnoge od njih događaju se upravo sada.

It dries out the vegetation

To isušuje vegetaciju

and causes more fires in the western part of North America.

i uzrokuje više požara na zapadu Sjeverne Amerike.

There's certainly been evidence of that, a lot of them.

Nesumnjivo je mnogo dokaza o tome.

More lightning,

Više munja,

as the heat energy builds up, there's a considerable amount

kako toplinska energija raste, postoji i značajniji broj

of additional lightning also.

dodatnih munja.

These climate-related disasters also have geopolitical consequences

Ove klimatske katastrofe imaju i geopolitičke posljedice

and create instability.

i uzrokuju nestabilnost.

The climate-related historic drought that started in Syria in 2006

Povijesna suša koju je uzrokovala klima počela je u Siriji 2006. godine,

destroyed 60 percent of the farms in Syria,

uništila je 60 posto farmi u Siriji,

killed 80 percent of the livestock,

ubila 80 posto stoke,

and drove 1.5 million climate refugees into the cities of Syria,

i potjerala 1.5 milijuna klimatskih izbjeglica u gradove,

where they collided with another 1.5 million refugees

gdje su se suočili s drugih 1.5 milijuna izbjeglica

from the Iraq War.

iz Iračkog rata.

And along with other factors, that opened the gates of Hell

Zajedno s ostalim faktorima, to je otvorilo vrata pakla

that people are trying to close now.

koja ljudi sada pokušavaju zatvoriti.

The US Defense Department has long warned

Američko ministarstvo obrane dugo je upozoravalo

of consequences from the climate crisis,

na posljedice klimatskih kriza,

including refugees, food and water shortages

uključujući izbjeglice, nestašicu hrane i vode

and pandemic disease.

i pandemijske bolesti.

Right now we're seeing microbial diseases from the tropics spread

Upravo sada gledamo kako se bolesti koje prenose mikrobi iz tropa šire

to the higher latitudes;

u više geografske širine;

the transportation revolution has had a lot to do with this.

prijevoz ima veliku ulogu u tome.

But the changing conditions change the latitudes and the areas

No uvjeti koji se mijenjaju uzrokuju širenje područja

where these microbial diseases can become endemic

gdje ove bolesti mogu postati endemske

and change the range of the vectors, like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.

i promijeniti vektorski opseg, poput komaraca i krpelja koji ih prenose.

The Zika epidemic now --

Trenutna epidemija Zike --

we're better positioned in North America

bolje smo pozicionirani u Sjevernoj Americi

because it's still a little too cool and we have a better public health system.

jer je ipak hladnije i imamo bolje javno zdravstvo.

But when women in some regions of South and Central America

No kada se preporuča nekim ženama u Južnoj i Srednjoj Americi

are advised not to get pregnant for two years --

da ne zatrudne u periodu od dvije godine,

that's something new, that ought to get our attention.

to je nešto novo i treba privući našu pozornost.

The Lancet, one of the two greatest medical journals in the world,

Lancet, jedan od dva najbolja medicinska časopisa na svijetu,

last summer labeled this a medical emergency now.

prošlog ljeta nazvao je ovo sadašnjim medicinskim izvanrednim stanjem.

And there are many factors because of it.

Mnogo je čimbenika zbog toga.

This is also connected to the extinction crisis.

Ovo je također povezano s krizom izumiranja.

We're in danger of losing 50 percent of all the living species on earth

Prijeti nam gubitak 50 posto svih živih bića na Zemlji

by the end of this century.

do kraja ovog stoljeća.

And already, land-based plants and animals

Već sada se kopnene biljke i životinje

are now moving towards the poles

primiču polovima

at an average rate of 15 feet per day.

u prosjeku 15 stopa dnevno.

Speaking of the North Pole,

Što se tiče Sjevernog pola,

last December 29, the same storm that caused historic flooding

prošlog prosinca, ista oluja koja je uzrokovala povijesne poplave

in the American Midwest,

na američkom Srednjem zapadu,

raised temperatures at the North Pole

povisila je temperaturu na Sjevernom polu

50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,

za 50 stupnjeva Fahrenheit toplije nego normalno,

causing the thawing of the North Pole

uzrokujući otapanje Sjevernog pola

in the middle of the long, dark, winter, polar night.

usred duge, mračne, zimske, polarne noći.

And when the land-based ice of the Arctic melts,

Kada se arktički led otopi,

it raises sea level.

povisuje razinu mora.

Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph from Svalbard illustrates this.

To pokazuje fotografija Paula Nicklena iz Svalbarda.

It's more dangerous coming off Greenland

Najopasnije je otapanje Grenlanda,

and particularly, Antarctica.

a posebno Antarktike.

The 10 largest risk cities for sea-level rise by population

Deset najvećih gradova koje ugrožava podizanje mora uglavnom su

are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.

u Južnoj i Jugoistočnoj Aziji.

When you measure it by assets at risk, number one is Miami:

Kada se mjeri ugroženost imovine, broj jedan je Miami:

three and a half trillion dollars at risk.

tri i pol trilijuna dolara je ugroženo.

Number three: New York and Newark.

Broj tri su New York i Newark.

I was in Miami last fall during the supermoon,

Bio sam u Miamiju prošle jeseni tijekom pojave super mjeseca,

one of the highest high-tide days.

jednog od najjačih dana visoke plime.

And there were fish from the ocean swimming in some of the streets

Oceanske ribe plivale su ulicama

Miami Beacha i Fort Lauderdalea

of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale

i Del Reya.

and Del Rey.

To se sada redovito događa tijekom visokih plima.

And this happens regularly during the highest-tide tides now.

Not with rain -- they call it "sunny-day flooding."

Ne zbog kiše već "poplava sunčanog dana."

Dolazi iz odvodnih kanala za oluje.

It comes up through the storm sewers.

And the Mayor of Miami speaks for many when he says

Gradonačelnik Miamija govori u ime mnogih kada kaže

it is long past time this can be viewed through a partisan lens.

da je prošlo vrijeme kada se ovo moglo promatrati kroz stranačke leće.

This is a crisis that's getting worse day by day.

Ovo je kriza koja svakim danom postaje sve gora.

We have to move beyond partisanship.

Moramo se udaljiti od stranačkih preferencija.

And I want to take a moment to honor these House Republicans --

Htio bih iskazati poštovanje prema ovim republikancima

(Pljesak)

(Applause)

who had the courage last fall

koji su prošle jeseni imali hrabrosti

to step out and take a political risk,

iskoračiti i napraviti politički rizik,

govoreći istinu o klimatskoj krizi.

by telling the truth about the climate crisis.

So the cost of the climate crisis is mounting up,

Cijena klimatske krize raste,

there are many of these aspects I haven't even mentioned.

mnogo je aspekata koje uopće nisam ni spomenuo.

It's an enormous burden.

To je golemi teret.

Spomenut ću još samo jedan,

I'll mention just one more,

because the World Economic Forum last month in Davos,

s obzirom da je Svjetski ekonomski forum prošli mjesec u Davosu,

after their annual survey of 750 economists,

nakon njihovog godišnjeg pregleda koji je vodilo 750 ekonomista,

said the climate crisis is now the number one risk

izjavio da je klimatska kriza sada primarni rizik

to the global economy.

globalnoj ekonomiji.

So you get central bankers

Imate središnje bankare

like Mark Carney, the head of the UK Central Bank,

poput Marka Carneyja, guvernera britanske Središnje banke,

saying the vast majority of the carbon reserves are unburnable.

koji tvrdi da većina zaliha ugljika nesagoriva.

Subprime carbon.

Nelikvidan ugljik.

I'm not going to remind you what happened with subprime mortgages,

Neću vas podsjećati što se dogodilo s nelikvidnim hipotekama,

but it's the same thing.

no situacija je ista.

Ako pogledate sva ugljična goriva koja su sagorena

If you look at all of the carbon fuels that were burned

since the beginning of the industrial revolution,

od početka industrijske revolucije

this is the quantity burned in the last 16 years.

ovo je količina spaljena u zadnjih 16 godina.

Here are all the ones that are proven and left on the books,

Evo svih koji su dokazani i ostavljeni na knjigama,

28 trillion dollars.

28 trilijuna dolara.

The International Energy Agency says only this amount can be burned.

Međunarodna energetska agencija tvrdi da se samo ova količina može sagoriti.

So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --

Ostatak, 22 trilijuna dolara -

unburnable.

nesagorivo.

Risk to the global economy.

Rizik globalnoj ekonomiji.

That's why divestment movement makes practical sense

Zato pokret lišavanja sredstava ima praktičnog smisla

and is not just a moral imperative.

i nije samo moralni imperativ.

So the answer to the first question, "Must we change?"

Odgovor na prvo pitanje, "Moramo li se promijeniti?"

is yes, we have to change.

je potvrdan - moramo se promijeniti.

Second question, "Can we change?"

Drugo pitanje, "Možemo li se promijeniti?"

This is the exciting news!

Ovdje dolazi uzbudljiva vijest!

The best projections in the world 16 years ago

Najbolja predviđanja na svijetu prije 16 godina

were that by 2010, the world would be able to install

bila su da će do 2010. svijet moći postaviti

30 gigavata vjetroelektrana.

30 gigawatts of wind capacity.

Prešli smo tu brojku 14 i pol puta.

We beat that mark by 14 and a half times over.

We see an exponential curve for wind installations now.

Sada vidimo eksponencijalnu krivulju za postavljenje vjetroelektrana.

We see the cost coming down dramatically.

Vidimo da trošak dramatično pada.

Some countries -- take Germany, an industrial powerhouse

Neke zemlje, npr. Njemačka, koja je industrijska sila

with a climate not that different from Vancouver's, by the way --

s klimom ne tako drukčijom od vancouverske,

one day last December,

u jednom danu prošlog prosinca,

got 81 percent of all its energy from renewable resources,

81 posto svoje ukupne energije primila je iz obnovljivih izvora,

većinom solarnih i vjetroelektrana.

mainly solar and wind.

A lot of countries are getting more than half on an average basis.

Mnoge zemlje redovito tako dobivaju više od polovice energije.

More good news:

Još dobrih vijesti:

energy storage, from batteries particularly,

pohrana energije, posebno u baterijama,

is now beginning to take off

dobiva svoj uzlet

because the cost has been coming down very dramatically

jer potrošnja dramatično pada

to solve the intermittency problem.

kako bi se riješio problem intermitentnih izvora energije.

With solar, the news is even more exciting!

Što se tiče solarnih izvora, vijesti postaju uzbudljivije!

The best projections 14 years ago were that we would install

Prema najboljim predviđanjima unazad 14 godina trebali smo postaviti

one gigawatt per year by 2010.

jedan gigavat godišnje do 2010. godine.

When 2010 came around, we beat that mark by 17 times over.

Kada je stigla 2010. godina, prešli smo tu brojku 17 i pol puta.

Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.

Prošle godine, prešli smo je 58 puta.

This year, we're on track to beat it 68 times over.

Ove godine, na putu smo da je prijeđemo 68 puta.

We're going to win this.

Pobijedit ćemo ovo.

Prevladat ćemo.

We are going to prevail.

The exponential curve on solar is even steeper and more dramatic.

Eksponencijalna krivulja za solarne izvore još je strmija i dramatičnija.

When I came to this stage 10 years ago,

Kada sam kročio na ovu pozornicu prije 10 godina,

this is where it was.

nalazila se ovdje.

We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough

Vidjeli smo revolucionarni napredak

in the emergence of these exponential curves.

ovih eksponencijalnih krivulja.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

And the cost has come down 10 percent per year

Trošak se smanjio 10 posto godišnje

for 30 years.

za 30 godina.

And it's continuing to come down.

I nastavlja se smanjivati.

Now, the business community has certainly noticed this,

Poslovna zajednica je ovo svakako uočila,

because it's crossing the grid parity point.

jer prelazi točku pariteta mreže.

Cheaper solar penetration rates are beginning to rise.

Počinju se javljati jeftinije solarne stope.

Grid parity is understood as that line, that threshold,

Paritet mreža shvaćamo kao liniju ili prag,

ispog kojeg je obnovljiva struja jeftinija od struje

below which renewable electricity is cheaper than electricity

from burning fossil fuels.

iz fosilnih goriva.

That threshold is a little bit like the difference

Taj prag pomalo nalikuje razlici

between 32 degrees Fahrenheit and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,

između 32 stupnja Fahrenheita i 33 stupnja Fahrenheita,

or zero and one Celsius.

ili nule i jednog Celzijusa.

It's a difference of more than one degree,

Ta je razlika veća od jednog stupnja,

it's the difference between ice and water.

to je razlika između leda i vode.

And it's the difference between markets that are frozen up,

Razlika između tržišta koja su zamrznuta,

and liquid flows of capital into new opportunities for investment.

i likvidnih protoka kapitala u nove prilike za ulaganja.

Ovo je najveća nova poslovna prilika

This is the biggest new business opportunity

in the history of the world,

u povijesti svijeta,

and two-thirds of it is in the private sector.

a njene dvije trećine su u privatnom sektoru.

We are seeing an explosion of new investment.

Uočavamo eksploziju novih ulaganja.

Starting in 2010, investments globally in renewable electricity generation

Počevši u 2010., globalna ulaganja u obnovljive izvore struje

surpassed fossils.

nadmašila su fosilna goriva.

The gap has been growing ever since.

Taj razmak otada neprekidno raste.

The projections for the future are even more dramatic,

Predviđanja za budućnost još su dramatičnija,

even though fossil energy is now still subsidized

iako se fosilna energija još uvijek subvencionira

at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.

u 40 puta većem omjeru nego obnovljivi izvori.

And by the way, if you add the projections for nuclear on here,

Ako ovome dodamo predviđanja za nuklearnu energiju,

particularly if you assume that the work many are doing

posebno ako pretpostavite da posao koji mnogi rade

kako bi došli do sigurnijih i prihvatljivijih,

to try to break through to safer and more acceptable,

more affordable forms of nuclear,

pristupačnijih oblika nuklearne energije,

this could change even more dramatically.

ovo bi se moglo još dramatičnije promijeniti.

So is there any precedent for such a rapid adoption

Postoji li kakav presedan za takvo brzo usvajanje

of a new technology?

nove tehnologije?

Well, there are many, but let's look at cell phones.

Postoji mnogo, no pogledajmo mobitele.

In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,

Godine 1980. AT&T, potom Ma Bell,

commissioned McKinsey to do a global market survey

platili su McKinseyju da provede istraživanje golobanog tržišta

of those clunky new mobile phones that appeared then.

onih nezgrapnih novih mobitela koji su se tada pojavili.

"How many can we sell by the year 2000?" they asked.

"Koliko možemo prodati do 2000. godine?", pitali su.

McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."

McKinsey im je odgovorio "900.000."

And sure enough, when the year 2000 arrived,

I zaista, do 2000. godine,

they did sell 900,000 -- in the first three days.

zaista su prodali 900.000 - u prvih tri dana.

And for the balance of the year, they sold 120 times more.

Do kraja godine prodali su 120 puta više.

Sada ima više mobitela nego ljudi na svijetu.

And now there are more cell connections than there are people in the world.

So, why were they not only wrong, but way wrong?

Kako to da su toliko pogriješili u procjeni?

I've asked that question myself, "Why?"

Pitao sam samog sebe, "Zašto?"

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And I think the answer is in three parts.

Mislim da se odgovor sastoji od tri dijela.

First, the cost came down much faster than anybody expected,

Prvo, cijena je pala puno brže nego je to itko očekivao,

even as the quality went up.

čak i kada je kvaliteta porasla.

And low-income countries, places that did not have a landline grid --

Siromašne zemlje, u kojima ne postoji fiksna linija,

they leap-frogged to the new technology.

usvojile su novu tehnologiju.

The big expansion has been in the developing counties.

Odvila se velika ekspanzija u zemljama u razvoju.

So what about the electricity grids in the developing world?

Što je onda s električnim mrežama u tim zemljama?

Nema ih baš puno.

Well, not so hot.

U mnogim područjima ni ne postoje.

And in many areas, they don't exist.

There are more people without any electricity at all in India

U Indiji ima više je ljudi bez električne struje

than the entire population of the United States of America.

nego što je ukupna populacija SAD-a.

So now we're getting this:

Tako imamo ovo:

solar panels on grass huts

solarne ploče na slamnatim kolibama

and new business models that make it affordable.

i novi poslovni modeli koji ih čine prihvatljivima.

Muhammad Yunus financed this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.

Ovu u Bangladešu financirao je Muhammad Yunus pomoću mikrokredita.

This is a village market.

Ovo je seoska tržnica.

Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying country in the world:

Bangladeš je trenutno zemlja s najbržom implementacijom na svijetu:

two systems per minute on average, night and day.

u prosjeku dva sustava u minuti, danju i noću.

And we have all we need:

Imamo sve što trebamo:

enough energy from the Sun comes to the earth

dovoljno sunčeve energije dolazi do Zemlje

every hour to supply the full world's energy needs for an entire year.

svakog sata da opskrbi energetske potrebe čitavog svijeta za cijelu godinu.

It's actually a little bit less than an hour.

Zapravo treba malo manje od jednog sata.

So the answer to the second question, "Can we change?"

Odgovor na drugo pitanje, "Možemo li se promijeniti?"

is clearly "Yes."

očigledno je "Da."

And it's an ever-firmer "yes."

I to "da" se sve više utvrđuje.

Last question, "Will we change?"

Posljednje pitanje je "Hoćemo li se promijeniti?"

Paris really was a breakthrough,

Pariz je zaista donio promjene,

some of the provisions are binding

neke mjere su obvezujuće,

and the regular reviews will matter a lot.

a redovne provjere bit će jako bitne.

But nations aren't waiting, they're going ahead.

No nacije ne čekaju već idu naprijed.

Kina je već najavila da će od iduće godine

China has already announced that starting next year,

usvojiti sustav trgovanja emisijskim jedinicama plinova.

they're adopting a nationwide cap and trade system.

They will likely link up with the European Union.

Vjerojatno će se povezati s Europskom unijom.

The United States has already been changing.

SAD se već mijenja.

All of these coal plants were proposed

Sva ova uglična postrojenja bila su predložena

in the next 10 years and canceled.

za sljedećih 10 godina i ukinuta.

All of these existing coal plants were retired.

Sva ova postrojenja su zatvorena.

All of these coal plants have had their retirement announced.

Sva su ova postrojenja najavila svoje zatvaranje.

All of them -- canceled.

I sva su ukinuta.

We are moving forward.

Idemo prema naprijed.

Last year -- if you look at all of the investment

Prošle godine, ako gledate sva ulaganja

in new electricity generation in the United States,

u novu proizvodnju struje u SAD-u,

almost three-quarters was from renewable energy,

skoro tri četvrtine je došlo iz obnovljivih izvora,

mostly wind and solar.

najviše vjetra i solarnih ploča.

We are solving this crisis.

Rješavamo krizu.

The only question is: how long will it take to get there?

Pitanje je samo koliko dugo će nam trebati da uspijemo?

So, it matters that a lot of people are organizing

Bitno je da se mnogo ljudi organizira

to insist on this change.

da vrše pritisak za ovu promjenu.

Almost 400,000 people marched in New York City

Gotovo 400.000 ljudi marširalo je u New Yorku

before the UN special session on this.

prije posebne sjednice UN-a o ovom problemu.

Many thousands, tens of thousands,

Deseci tisuća,

marched in cities around the world.

marširalo je u gradovima diljem svijeta.

And so, I am extremely optimistic.

Zato sam iznimno optimističan.

As I said before, we are going to win this.

Kao što sam već spomenuo, pobjedit ćemo.

I'll finish with this story.

Završit ću ovom pričom.

When I was 13 years old,

Kada mi je bilo 13 godina,

I heard that proposal by President Kennedy

čuo sam onaj prijedlog predsjednika Kennedyja

to land a person on the Moon and bring him back safely

da se pošalje čovjeka na Mjesec i vrati ga se sigurno nazad

in 10 years.

u deset godina.

Čuo sam i kako su odrasli tada govorili,

And I heard adults of that day and time say,

"To je nepromišljeno, skupo, može doživjeti neuspjeh."

"That's reckless, expensive, may well fail."

But eight years and two months later,

No osam godina i dva mjeseca poslije,

in the moment that Neil Armstrong set foot on the Moon,

u trenutku kada je Neil Armstrong zakoračio na Mjesec,

there was great cheer that went up in NASA's mission control in Houston.

čulo se glasno klicanje u NASA-inoj kontrolnoj sobi za misije u Houstonu.

Here's a little-known fact about that:

Evo slabo znane činjenive o tome:

the average age of the systems engineers,

prosječna dob inženjera sustava,

the controllers in the room that day, was 26,

kontrolora u toj sobi tog dana, bila je 26 godina,

which means, among other things,

što, između ostalog, znači da

their age, when they heard that challenge, was 18.

im je bilo 18 kada su čuli za taj izazov.

We now have a moral challenge

Sada imamo moralni izazov

that is in the tradition of others that we have faced.

koji pripada tradiciji izazova s kojima smo se već suočili.

Jedan od najvećih američkih pjesnika 20. stoljeća,

One of the greatest poets of the last century in the US,

Wallace Stevens,

Wallace Stevens,

wrote a line that has stayed with me:

napisao je stih koji sam zapamtio:

"After the final 'no,' there comes a 'yes,'

"Nakon zadnjeg 'ne', dolazi 'da',

and on that 'yes', the future world depends."

i o tome 'da' ovisi svijet budućnosti."

When the abolitionists started their movement,

Kada su abolicionisti započeli svoj pokret

they met with no after no after no.

suočavali su se s opetovanim odbijanjima.

And then came a yes.

A tada su naišli na "da".

The Women's Suffrage and Women's Rights Movement

Pokret za ženska prava kao i Pokret za pravo da glasuju

met endless no's, until finally, there was a yes.

suočavali su se s odbijanjima opet i opet, dok naposljetku nisu dobili "da."

The Civil Rights Movement, the movement against apartheid,

Pokret za građanska prava, pokret protiv apartheida,

and more recently, the movement for gay and lesbian rights

i nešto aktualniji pokret za prava homoseksualaca

here in the United States and elsewhere.

ovdje u SAD-u i u drugim zemljama.

After the final "no" comes a "yes."

Nakon posljednjeg "ne" dolazi "da".

When any great moral challenge is ultimately resolved

Kada se bilo koji veliki moralni izazov napokon svede

into a binary choice between what is right and what is wrong,

na binarni odabir između onoga što je pravo i što krivo,

the outcome is fore-ordained because of who we are as human beings.

rezultat je predodređen zbog naših ljudskih kvaliteta.

Ninety-nine percent of us, that is where we are now

Devedeset i devet posto svih nas, dotle smo stigli

and it is why we're going to win this.

i zato ćemo ovo pobijediti.

We have everything we need.

Imamo sve što nam treba.

Neki još sumnjaju da imamo volju za djelovanje,

Some still doubt that we have the will to act,

but I say the will to act is itself a renewable resource.

ja tvrdim da je volja za djelovanje sama po sebi obnovljivi izvor.

Hvala vam.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible combination of skills.

Chris Anderson: Imate nevjerojatan splet vještina.

You've got this scientist mind that can understand

Imate um znanstvenika koju može razumijeti

the full range of issues,

cijeli opseg problema,

and the ability to turn it into the most vivid language.

i sposobnost da to pretočite u vrlo živopisan jezik.

No one else can do that, that's why you led this thing.

Nitko dugi to ne može, zato ovo vodite.

It was amazing to see it 10 years ago, it was amazing to see it now.

Bilo je nevjerojatno vidjeti to prije 10 godina, kao i sada.

Al Gore: Well, you're nice to say that, Chris.

Al Gore: Lijepo od tebe da to kažeš, Chris.

Iskreno, imam mnogo jako dobrih prijatelja

But honestly, I have a lot of really good friends

in the scientific community who are incredibly patient

u znanstvenoj zajednici koji su nevjerojatno strpljivi

and who will sit there and explain this stuff to me

i koji mi objašnjavanju ovaj problem

over and over and over again

opetovano

until I can get it into simple enough language

sve dok ga ja ne mogu pretočiti u jednostavan jezik

that I can understand it.

koji mogu razumijem.

And that's the key to trying to communicate.

To je ključ komunikacije.

CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,

CA: Prvi dio govora je zastrašujuć,

second part: incredibly hopeful.

drugi dio je pun nade.

How do we know that all those graphs, all that progress, is enough

Kako možemo znati da su svi ti grafovi i razvoj dovoljni

da se riješi ono što ste nam pokazali u prvome dijelu?

to solve what you showed in the first part?

AG: I think that the crossing --

AG: Mislim da je je prijelaz --

you know, I've only been in the business world for 15 years.

znate, u poslovnom sam svijetu tek 15 godina.

But one of the things I've learned is that apparently it matters

No jedna od stvari koje sam naučio jest da je zaista bitno

if a new product or service is more expensive

ako je novi proizvod ili usluga skuplja

than the incumbent, or cheaper than.

ili jeftinija od onoga što je već na tržištu.

Turns out, it makes a difference if it's cheaper than.

Ispostavilo se da je bitno ako je jeftinije.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

And when it crosses that line,

Kad prijeđe tu granicu,

mnogo se stvari tada mijenja.

then a lot of things really change.

We are regularly surprised by these developments.

Redovito nas iznenađuju takve promjene.

The late Rudi Dornbusch, the great economist said,

Pokojni Rudi Dornbusch, veliki ekonomist, rekao je

"Things take longer to happen then you think they will,

"Stvarima treba više vremena da se dogode nego što vi to mislite,

and then they happen much faster than you thought they could."

a tada se dogode mnogo brže nego što ste mislili da mogu."

I really think that's where we are.

Mislim da smo mi u istoj situaciji.

Some people are using the phrase "The Solar Singularity" now,

Neki sada koriste izraz "Solarni singularitet"

meaning when it gets below the grid parity,

što znači da kada padne ispod razine pariteta mreže,

unsubsidized in most places,

koja na većini mjesta nije subvencionirana,

then it's the default choice.

onda je to postaje zadani izbor.

Now, in one of the presentations yesterday, the jitney thing,

U jednoj od jučerašnjih prezentacija, o onoj "jitney" stvari,

there is an effort to use regulations to slow this down.

vidjeli ste da se ulažu napori kako bi se regulativama to usporilo.

And I just don't think it's going to work.

Ja ne vjerujem da će to uspjeti.

There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,

U Atlanti živi jedna žena, Debbie Dooley,

who's the Chairman of the Atlanta Tea Party.

koja je predsjednica Tea Party pokreta u Atlanti.

They enlisted her in this effort to put a tax

Angažirali su je u nastojanju da oporezuju

on solar panels and regulations.

solarne ploče i regulacije.

And she had just put solar panels on her roof

Ona je netom prije toga postavila solarne ploče na svoj kov

and she didn't understand the request.

i nije razumjela što su htjeli od nje.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Tako da se povezala sa Sierra Klubom

And so she went and formed an alliance with the Sierra Club

and they formed a new organization called the Green Tea Party.

i zajedno su osnovali novu organizaciju nazvanu Green Tea Party.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

(Applause)

(Pljesak)

And they defeated the proposal.

I osporili su taj zahtjev.

So, finally, the answer to your question is,

Tako da je odgovor na Vaše pitanje,

this sounds a little corny and maybe it's a cliché,

ovo zvuči malo otrcano i možda je klišej,

but 10 years ago -- and Christiana referred to this --

no prije 10 godina - i Christiana je to spomenula -

there are people in this audience who played an incredibly significant role

u ovoj publici su ljudi koji su imali nevjerojatno značajnu ulogu u

in generating those exponential curves.

stvaranju onih eksponencijalnih krivulja.

And it didn't work out economically for some of them,

Za neke to nije bilo ekonomično isplativo,

but it kick-started this global revolution.

no pokrenulo je ovu globalnu revoluciju.

And what people in this audience do now

I ono što ljudi u publici sada rade

with the knowledge that we are going to win this.

sa znanjem da ćemo pobijediti ovo.

But it matters a lot how fast we win it.

Jako je bitno koliko brzo ćemo pobijediti.

CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.

CA: Al Gore, to je bilo nevjerojatno snažno.

If this turns out to be the year,

Ako se ispostavi da je ovo godina

that the partisan thing changes,

u kojoj se stranačko preferenciranje promijeni,

as you said, it's no longer a partisan issue,

kako ste rekli, to više nije pitanje uzimanja strana,

but you bring along people from the other side together,

nego se ujedini ljude sa suprotnih strana,

backed by science, backed by these kinds of investment opportunities,

koje podupire znanost i mogućnosti za ulaganja,

backed by reason that you win the day --

i misao da treba pobijediti --

boy, that's really exciting.

to je zaista uzbudljivo.

Thank you so much.

AG: Thank you so much for bringing me back to TED.

Hvala Vam puno.

AG: Hvala Vama što ste me ponovo pozvali na TED.

Hvala!

Thank you!

(Pljesak)

(Applause)