The case for optimism on climate change | Al Gore

翻译人员: Leo Wei 校对人员: 易帆 余

I was excited to be a part of the "Dream" theme,

我之前很兴奋能成为“梦想”主题的一员，

and then I found out I'm leading off the "Nightmare?" section of it.

但后来我发现我正在带头发言 “噩梦?”这个章节．．．

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And certainly there are things about the climate crisis that qualify.

当然也有关于气候危机的描述。

And I have some bad news,

我有一些坏消息，

but I have a lot more good news.

但是我有更多的好消息。

I'm going to propose three questions

我会提出三个问题，

and the answer to the first one

而第一个问题的答案

necessarily involves a little bad news.

无可避免的会有一些坏消息。

But -- hang on, because the answers to the second and third questions

但，别气馁，因为第二和第三个问题的答案，

really are very positive.

真的是非常正面的。

So the first question is, "Do we really have to change?"

那么，第一个问题是： ＂我们必须得改变吗？＂

And of course, the Apollo Mission, among other things

当然，阿波罗任务，以及其他事情

changed the environmental movement,

改变了环境运动，

really launched the modern environmental movement.

真正地发起了现代环境运动。

18 months after this Earthrise picture was first seen on earth,

在第一次看到这张地球 升起的照片18个月后，

the first Earth Day was organized.

第一次的世界地球日被组织成立了

And we learned a lot about ourselves

通过从太空中回顾我们的星球，

looking back at our planet from space.

我们学到了很多 关于我们自己的事情。

And one of the things that we learned

而我们所学到的其中一件事，

confirmed what the scientists have long told us.

证实了科学家们很早 就告诉过我们的。

One of the most essential facts

其中一项最重要的事实就是

about the climate crisis has to do with the sky.

气候危机和天空息息相关。

As this picture illustrates,

如这张图片所展示的，

the sky is not the vast and limitless expanse

天空并不是像我们从地上 仰望所看到的那么浩瀚无垠。

that appears when we look up from the ground.

它是由大气所组成，

It is a very thin shell of atmosphere

围绕着地球的一层薄薄的壳。

surrounding the planet.

That right now is the open sewer for our industrial civilization

按照当前的管理形式，

现在它是我们工业文明的

as it's currently organized.

公共排污场。

We are spewing 110 million tons

我们每24小时喷出1.1亿吨

of heat-trapping global warming pollution into it every 24 hours,

导致全球变暖的吸热污染物，

free of charge, go ahead.

免费的，继续吧。

And there are many sources of the greenhouse gases,

温室气体的来源很多，

I'm certainly not going to go through them all.

我当然不会谈及到所有的。

I'm going to focus on the main one,

我会把重点放在主要的上面，

but agriculture is involved, diet is involved, population is involved.

但这与农业有关， 饮食有关，人口有关。

Management of forests, transportation,

与森林、运输

the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.

海洋，永久冻土层融化的管理有关。

But I'm going to focus on the heart of the problem,

但是，我会聚焦在问题的核心。

which is the fact that we still rely on dirty, carbon-based fuels

也就是事实上, 全世界每年有百分之85的能源

for 85 percent of all the energy that our world burns every year.

依然是靠燃烧肮脏的碳基燃料所产生。

And you can see from this image that after World War II,

你们可以从这张图上看到，从二战后，

the emission rates started really accelerating.

碳排放率开始急剧窜升。

And the accumulated amount of man-made, global warming pollution

而人为累积的地球暖化汙染物

that is up in the atmosphere now

现正上升到大气层中。

traps as much extra heat energy as would be released

现在吸收的额外热量，

相当于40万颗广岛级别

by 400,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs exploding

原子弹爆炸所释放的热量，

every 24 hours, 365 days a year.

而且是每24小时，一年365天的释放。

Fact-checked over and over again,

事实被查证了一遍又一遍，

conservative, it's the truth.

保守说，这就是事实。

Now it's a big planet, but --

虽然它是个大星球，不过——

(Explosion sound)

（爆炸声）

that is a lot of energy,

那是很大的能量，

particularly when you multiply it 400,000 times per day.

特别是当你乘以40万倍后， 就是每天的量。

And all that extra heat energy

那些所有的额外热量

is heating up the atmosphere, the whole earth system.

正在加热大气层， 加热整个地球系统。

Let's look at the atmosphere.

让我们看看大气层。

This is a depiction

这张图所描述的

of what we used to think of as the normal distribution of temperatures.

是我们过去常用的气温常态分布图。

The white represents normal temperature days;

白色区域表示正常气温的天数，

1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.

1951-1980年是随机选择的。

The blue are cooler than average days,

蓝色是比一般气温凉快的天数，

the red are warmer than average days.

红色是比一般气温暖和的天数。

But the entire curve has moved to the right in the 1980s.

但是整条曲线在上世纪 80年代向右移动了。

And you'll see in the lower right-hand corner

在右下角你们可以看到，

the appearance of statistically significant numbers

极端炎热的天数

of extremely hot days.

在统计上出现显著的数字。

In the 90s, the curve shifted further.

在90年代，曲线进一步移动。

And in the last 10 years, you see the extremely hot days

在过去10年，你们看到极端炎热的天数

are now more numerous than the cooler than average days.

大大的多于凉爽气温和 一般气温的天数。

In fact, they are 150 times more common on the surface of the earth

实际上，比起30年前， 炎热的日子在地球表面整整多出了150倍。

than they were just 30 years ago.

So we're having record-breaking temperatures.

所以我们正拥有着破纪录的温度，

Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years ever measured with instruments

在有仪表测量以来的最热的15个年份中，

have been in this young century.

有14个是在这个年轻的世纪。

The hottest of all was last year.

其中最热的一年是去年。

Last month was the 371st month in a row

上个月是连续较20世纪

warmer than the 20th-century average.

平均气温暖和的第371个月。

And for the first time, not only the warmest January,

这是第一次，不仅是最温暖的一月，

but for the first time, it was more than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer

也是第一次，比平均高了华氏2度。

than the average.

These higher temperatures are having an effect on animals,

更高的气温正在影响动物，

plants, people, ecosystems.

植物，人，生态系统。

But on a global basis, 93 percent of all the extra heat energy

但在全球基础上，93%的额外热量

is trapped in the oceans.

是被困在海洋中。

And the scientists can measure the heat buildup

如今科学家们可以

更精确地

much more precisely now

at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,

在所有的深度测量热量的形成：

the first few hundred meters.

深海，海洋中间，水下几百米。

And this, too, is accelerating.

同样显示，正在加速。

It goes back more than a century.

这可以追溯到一个世纪以前，

And more than half of the increase has been in the last 19 years.

有超过一半的上升，发生在过去的19年里。

This has consequences.

这是有后果的。

The first order of consequence:

第一个后果：

the ocean-based storms get stronger.

源于海洋的风暴变得更加强烈。

Super Typhoon Haiyan went over areas of the Pacific

超级台风海燕，

在它袭击塔克洛班之前，

five and a half degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal

所经过的太平洋区域

较正常温度高5.5华氏度。

before it slammed into Tacloban,

as the most destructive storm ever to make landfall.

它是有史以来最具破坏性的登陆型风暴。

Pope Francis, who has made such a difference to this whole issue,

教皇弗兰西斯， 使整个事件变得不同寻常，

visited Tacloban right after that.

他在那之后拜访了塔克洛班。

Superstorm Sandy went over areas of the Atlantic

超级风暴桑迪，

在袭击纽约和新泽西之前，

nine degrees warmer than normal

经过的大西洋区域

before slamming into New York and New Jersey.

较正常温度高出了九度。

The second order of consequences are affecting all of us right now.

第二个后果正在影响我们所有人。

The warmer oceans are evaporating much more water vapor into the skies.

升温后的海洋正在蒸发

更多的水蒸汽到天空中。

Average humidity worldwide has gone up four percent.

世界各地的平均湿度 已增加了百分之4，

And it creates these atmospheric rivers.

它创造了这些大气河流。

The Brazilian scientists call them "flying rivers."

巴西科学家称他们为“飞行的河流”。

And they funnel all of that extra water vapor over the land

它们汇集所有的额外水蒸汽到陆地上方。

where storm conditions trigger these massive record-breaking downpours.

触发了暴风雨的条件,

造成这些破纪录的倾盆大雨。

This is from Montana.

这是来自蒙大那州的照片。

Take a look at this storm last August.

看一下这个去年八月的暴风雨。

As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.

当它经过亚利桑那州的图森时，

It literally splashes off the city.

简直可以用倾泻了整座城市来形容。

These downpours are really unusual.

这些倾盆大雨真的非常不寻常。

Last July in Houston, Texas,

去年七月，在德克萨斯州的休斯敦，

it rained for two days, 162 billion gallons.

下了两天的雨, 雨量高达1620亿加仑，

That represents more than two days of the full flow of Niagara Falls

这表示降到城市中心的雨量

超过尼亚加拉大瀑布2天的流量。

in the middle of the city,

which was, of course, paralyzed.

这，当然，造成了城市的瘫痪。

These record downpours are creating historic floods and mudslides.

这些空前的大雨造成了

历史性的洪水和泥石流。

This one is from Chile last year.

这是来自去年智利的影片，

And you'll see that warehouse going by.

你会看到那个仓库被冲走。

There are oil tankers cars going by.

那边是油罐车被冲走。

This is from Spain last September,

这个来自去年九月的西班牙，

you could call this the running of the cars and trucks, I guess.

我猜想，你们或许会称之为 轿车与卡车的「奔牛节」。

Every night on the TV news now is like a nature hike

现在每天晚上的电视新闻就像是在

through the Book of Revelation.

上演《启示录》。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I mean, really.

我是认真的。

The insurance industry has certainly noticed,

保险产业必然已经注意到 ，

the losses have been mounting up.

亏损正在大幅增加。

They're not under any illusions about what's happening.

他们对于正在发生的事 并没有任何的幻觉。

And the causality requires a moment of discussion.

这中间的因果关系需要一段时间的讨论。

We're used to thinking of linear cause and linear effect --

我们习惯于思考线性的因果——

one cause, one effect.

一种原因，一种影响。

This is systemic causation.

这是系统性的因果关系。

As the great Kevin Trenberth says,

如伟大的凯文．特伦伯斯所说，

"All storms are different now.

＂现在所有的风暴都不同。＂

There's so much extra energy in the atmosphere,

在大气中有如此多的额外能量，

there's so much extra water vapor.

有如此多的额外水蒸汽，

Every storm is different now."

现在每个风暴都不同。

So, the same extra heat pulls the soil moisture out of the ground

因此，同样的额外热量从 地面将土壤中的水分吸走，

and causes these deeper, longer, more pervasive droughts

造成更深、更久、更常见的干旱。

and many of them are underway right now.

现在有很多正在持续中。

It dries out the vegetation

它使植被变干，

and causes more fires in the western part of North America.

也在北美洲西部造成更多火灾。

There's certainly been evidence of that, a lot of them.

这当然有很多证据。

More lightning,

更多闪电，

as the heat energy builds up, there's a considerable amount

随着热量积聚， 也产生了相当数量的额外闪电。

of additional lightning also.

These climate-related disasters also have geopolitical consequences

这些与气候有关的灾难 也造成了地缘政治后果，

and create instability.

和产生不稳定性。

The climate-related historic drought that started in Syria in 2006

2006年开始，在叙利亚发生的历史性干旱，

destroyed 60 percent of the farms in Syria,

摧毁了叙利亚60%的农场，

killed 80 percent of the livestock,

造成80%的牲畜死亡，

and drove 1.5 million climate refugees into the cities of Syria,

使150万气候难民逃到叙利亚城。

where they collided with another 1.5 million refugees

在那儿他们遇到了另外150万

from the Iraq War.

来自伊拉克战争的难民。

And along with other factors, that opened the gates of Hell

加上其他因素，开启了地狱之门。

that people are trying to close now.

现在人们正在努力去关上它。

The US Defense Department has long warned

美国国防部很久以前就

of consequences from the climate crisis,

针对气候危机的后果发出过警告，

including refugees, food and water shortages

其中包括难民，食物及饮用水短缺，

and pandemic disease.

和传染病。

Right now we're seeing microbial diseases from the tropics spread

现在我们看到微生物疾病从热带地区

向高纬度地区传播。

to the higher latitudes;

the transportation revolution has had a lot to do with this.

交通运输的革命跟这也有很大关系。

But the changing conditions change the latitudes and the areas

但是，变化的条件改变了

微生物疾病在这些区域的活动范围，

where these microbial diseases can become endemic

使它们变成地方性的。

and change the range of the vectors, like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.

还会改变带菌者的范围，

像蚊子和壁虱这样的携带者。

The Zika epidemic now --

现在流行的寨卡病毒——

we're better positioned in North America

我们位于北美要好一些，

because it's still a little too cool and we have a better public health system.

因为这儿仍然稍微冷一点，

还有我们有更好的公共卫生系统。

But when women in some regions of South and Central America

但在南美和中美洲一些地区的妇女，

are advised not to get pregnant for two years --

被建议在两年内不要怀孕——

that's something new, that ought to get our attention.

我们应当注意這些新的情况。

The Lancet, one of the two greatest medical journals in the world,

《柳叶刀》，世界上最伟大的 两个医学期刊之一，

last summer labeled this a medical emergency now.

去年夏天将这事件 标记为医学紧急事件。

And there are many factors because of it.

因为它有很多因素。

This is also connected to the extinction crisis.

这也和物种灭绝危机有关。

We're in danger of losing 50 percent of all the living species on earth

到本世纪末我们有50% 地球物种消灭的风险。

by the end of this century.

And already, land-based plants and animals

现在，陆生植物和动物

are now moving towards the poles

正以平均每天15英尺的

at an average rate of 15 feet per day.

速度向地球两极移动。

Speaking of the North Pole,

说到北极，

last December 29, the same storm that caused historic flooding

去年12月29号，在美国中西部

造成历史性洪水的同样风暴，

in the American Midwest,

raised temperatures at the North Pole

使北极的气温较平常

50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,

上升了50华氏度。

causing the thawing of the North Pole

导致北极冰川

in the middle of the long, dark, winter, polar night.

在漫长、黑暗、冬季的极夜中融化。

And when the land-based ice of the Arctic melts,

当北极陆地上的冰融化时，

it raises sea level.

它会使海平面上升。

Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph from Svalbard illustrates this.

保罗•尼克伦在斯瓦尔巴特群岛 拍的漂亮照片说明了一切。

It's more dangerous coming off Greenland

更危险的是格陵兰岛和南极洲，

and particularly, Antarctica.

尤其是南极洲。

The 10 largest risk cities for sea-level rise by population

针对海平面上升风险，

以人口数量排序，风险最大的10个城市，

are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.

大多数在南亚和东南亚。

When you measure it by assets at risk, number one is Miami:

当你用财产损失的风险来衡量时，

排第一个是迈阿密：

three and a half trillion dollars at risk.

3.5万亿美元的财产面临风险。

Number three: New York and Newark.

第三：纽约和纽瓦克。

I was in Miami last fall during the supermoon,

去年秋天，超级满月的期间，我在迈阿密，

one of the highest high-tide days.

那几天是潮汐最大的时候。

And there were fish from the ocean swimming in some of the streets

有一些鱼从海里

游到迈阿密海滩、劳德代尔堡

of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale

和玛丽安德尔湾的一些街道上。

and Del Rey.

And this happens regularly during the highest-tide tides now.

在大潮汐期间，这经常发生。

Not with rain -- they call it "sunny-day flooding."

没有下雨—— 他们称之为“晴天洪水”。

It comes up through the storm sewers.

它是通过雨水管道过来的。

And the Mayor of Miami speaks for many when he says

迈阿密市长替很多人发言：

过去有一段很长时间，

it is long past time this can be viewed through a partisan lens.

这件事是透过党派的镜头来看待，

This is a crisis that's getting worse day by day.

这是灾难，它一天比一天糟。

We have to move beyond partisanship.

我们必须超越党派。

And I want to take a moment to honor these House Republicans --

我想花一点时间来感谢这些 众议院的共和党人——

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

who had the courage last fall

那些在去年秋天有勇气，

to step out and take a political risk,

冒着政治风险站出来，

by telling the truth about the climate crisis.

讲述关于气候危机的真相的人。

So the cost of the climate crisis is mounting up,

因此气候危机的成本正在增加。

there are many of these aspects I haven't even mentioned.

有很多方面我还没有提到。

It's an enormous burden.

这是巨大的负担。

I'll mention just one more,

我要再提一项，

because the World Economic Forum last month in Davos,

因为上个月在达沃斯举行 的世界经济论坛，

after their annual survey of 750 economists,

在对750名经济学家进行了年度调查后，

said the climate crisis is now the number one risk

说现在气候危机是

全球经济的头号风险。

to the global economy.

So you get central bankers

因此听到央行行长们，

like Mark Carney, the head of the UK Central Bank,

如马克•卡尼，英国中央银行的头，

saying the vast majority of the carbon reserves are unburnable.

说绝大多数的碳储量是不可燃烧的。

Subprime carbon.

次级碳。

I'm not going to remind you what happened with subprime mortgages,

我不会提醒你们次级抵押贷款导致的后果，

but it's the same thing.

但这是同样的事。

If you look at all of the carbon fuels that were burned

如果你看自从工业革命以来，

since the beginning of the industrial revolution,

燃烧的所有碳燃料。

this is the quantity burned in the last 16 years.

是过去16年燃烧的总量。

Here are all the ones that are proven and left on the books,

这是书上证明并记载下来的，

28 trillion dollars.

28万亿美元。

The International Energy Agency says only this amount can be burned.

国际能源局说只有这部份能被燃烧。

So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --

因此，剩余的22万亿美元——

unburnable.

不能燃烧。

Risk to the global economy.

全球经济的风险。

That's why divestment movement makes practical sense

这也是为什么撤资运动这么有实质意义。

and is not just a moral imperative.

不仅仅是一项道德律令。

So the answer to the first question, "Must we change?"

因此第一个题， “我们必须得改变吗？”的答案是

is yes, we have to change.

“是的”，我们必须得改变。

Second question, "Can we change?"

第二个问题，“我们能改变吗？”

This is the exciting news!

这是令人振奋的消息！

The best projections in the world 16 years ago

16年前，世上最好的预测是

were that by 2010, the world would be able to install

到2010年前，全球将有能力

30 gigawatts of wind capacity.

安装 30 GW的风力发电。

We beat that mark by 14 and a half times over.

我们用了14年半达到了那个目标。

We see an exponential curve for wind installations now.

现在我们看到风力发电的 装机量指数曲线。

We see the cost coming down dramatically.

我们看到成本的急剧下降。

Some countries -- take Germany, an industrial powerhouse

一些国家——比如德国，

一个与温哥华气候相差 无几的工业厂房——

with a climate not that different from Vancouver's, by the way --

one day last December,

去年12月的某一天，

got 81 percent of all its energy from renewable resources,

有81%的能源来自可再生资源，

mainly solar and wind.

大部分是太阳能和风能。

A lot of countries are getting more than half on an average basis.

平均上许多国家，

从可再生资源获得的能源都在一半以上。

More good news:

更多好消息：

energy storage, from batteries particularly,

能源储存，尤其是电池储存，

is now beginning to take off

已经开始腾飞。

because the cost has been coming down very dramatically

因为成本已经在急剧地下降

to solve the intermittency problem.

以解决供能的不连续性问题。

With solar, the news is even more exciting!

对于太阳能，消息更让人振奋！

The best projections 14 years ago were that we would install

14年前最好的预测是到2010年前，

one gigawatt per year by 2010.

我们将每年安装 1 GW。

When 2010 came around, we beat that mark by 17 times over.

当2010年到来时，我们超过了17倍。

Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.

去年，我们超过了58倍。

This year, we're on track to beat it 68 times over.

今年，我们正在超过它68倍的路上。

We're going to win this.

我们正在赢得这场比赛。

We are going to prevail.

我们将获胜。

The exponential curve on solar is even steeper and more dramatic.

太阳能的指数曲线更陡，更急骤。

When I came to this stage 10 years ago,

当10年前我来到这个舞台时，

this is where it was.

它在这个。

We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough

从这个指数曲线上

in the emergence of these exponential curves.

我们已经看到一个革命性的突破。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

And the cost has come down 10 percent per year

成本已经连续30年

for 30 years.

每年下降10%了。

And it's continuing to come down.

它还在继续下降。

Now, the business community has certainly noticed this,

现在，商业界肯定已经注意到了这点，

because it's crossing the grid parity point.

因为它正在突破市电平价 （电网的平价点）。

Cheaper solar penetration rates are beginning to rise.

便宜的太阳能普及率正在开始上升。

Grid parity is understood as that line, that threshold,

电网平价被理解为那条 “界线”，即“门槛”，

below which renewable electricity is cheaper than electricity

低于它的可再生能源电力

from burning fossil fuels.

将比燃烧化石燃料的电力更便宜。

That threshold is a little bit like the difference

这个“界线”有点像

between 32 degrees Fahrenheit and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,

32华氏度与33华氏度之间的区别，

or zero and one Celsius.

或0和1摄氏度。

It's a difference of more than one degree,

它不只是1度的差别，

it's the difference between ice and water.

而是冰和水的差别。

And it's the difference between markets that are frozen up,

这是冻结的市场，

and liquid flows of capital into new opportunities for investment.

与资金不断拥入新的投资机会的差别。

This is the biggest new business opportunity

这是世界上有史以来最大的

in the history of the world,

新的商业机会。

and two-thirds of it is in the private sector.

三分之二是在私营部门。

We are seeing an explosion of new investment.

我们看到暴发性的新投资。

Starting in 2010, investments globally in renewable electricity generation

从2010年开始，全球在 可再生资源发电上的投资

surpassed fossils.

超过了化石能源。

The gap has been growing ever since.

差距还在不断扩大。

The projections for the future are even more dramatic,

对未来的预测更激动人心的，

even though fossil energy is now still subsidized

尽管化石能源的补贴现在仍然

at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.

比可再生能源高40倍。

And by the way, if you add the projections for nuclear on here,

顺便提一下，如果在预测中算上核能，

particularly if you assume that the work many are doing

特别是，如果你假设正在进行的很多工作

to try to break through to safer and more acceptable,

都在努力带来更安全和更可接受

more affordable forms of nuclear,

更便宜的核能，

this could change even more dramatically.

这甚至会改变得更显著。

So is there any precedent for such a rapid adoption

那么有没有这样快速地采用

of a new technology?

新技术的先例呢？

Well, there are many, but let's look at cell phones.

嗯，有很多，让我们看看手机。

In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,

1980年，美国电话电报公司， 然后是马贝尔，

commissioned McKinsey to do a global market survey

委托麦肯锡做一个

of those clunky new mobile phones that appeared then.

关于当时出现的那些笨重的

新手机的全球市场调查。

"How many can we sell by the year 2000?" they asked.

“我们2000年能卖出多少部？”他们问道。

McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."

麦肯锡回来后说道，“90万部。”

And sure enough, when the year 2000 arrived,

那已经够多的了，当2000年到来时，

they did sell 900,000 -- in the first three days.

仅仅在头三天他们就卖出了90万部，

And for the balance of the year, they sold 120 times more.

一年当中，他们多卖了120倍。

And now there are more cell connections than there are people in the world.

现在有更多的手机， 比全世界的人还多。

So, why were they not only wrong, but way wrong?

那么，为什么他们不只是错了， 还大大地错了呢？

I've asked that question myself, "Why?"

我问过我自己，“为什么？”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And I think the answer is in three parts.

我认为答案分三部份。

First, the cost came down much faster than anybody expected,

首先，成本下降得 比任何人预期的都要快，

even as the quality went up.

即使质量上升了。

And low-income countries, places that did not have a landline grid --

低收入国家，那些没有 固定网络的地方——

they leap-frogged to the new technology.

他们直接跨越到新技术。

The big expansion has been in the developing counties.

大扩张已经在发展中国家中进行。

So what about the electricity grids in the developing world?

那么在发展中国家的电网呢？

Well, not so hot.

好吧，沒那么热。

And in many areas, they don't exist.

在很多地区，它们不存在。

There are more people without any electricity at all in India

在印度没有任何电力的人

than the entire population of the United States of America.

比整个美国的人口还多。

So now we're getting this:

我们现在来看这个：

solar panels on grass huts

茅草屋顶上的太阳能板。

and new business models that make it affordable.

新的商业模式使人们负担得起。

Muhammad Yunus financed this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.

穆罕默德•尤努斯

透过孟加拉国的小额贷款买了这个。

This is a village market.

这是个乡村市场。

Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying country in the world:

孟加拉国现在是全世界部署 这种太阳能板最快的国家：

two systems per minute on average, night and day.

不分昼夜，平均每分钟安装两套系统。

And we have all we need:

我们有需要的一切：

enough energy from the Sun comes to the earth

足够的能源，每小时从 太阳到达地球的能量，

every hour to supply the full world's energy needs for an entire year.

能供应全球一整年的能源需求。

It's actually a little bit less than an hour.

实际上稍微低于一小时。

So the answer to the second question, "Can we change?"

因此第二个问题， “我们能改变吗？”的答案

is clearly "Yes."

显然是“是”，

And it's an ever-firmer "yes."

而且是一个更坚定的“是”。

Last question, "Will we change?"

最后一个问题，“我们会改变吗？”

Paris really was a breakthrough,

巴黎峰会真的是一个突破。

some of the provisions are binding

有些规定是有约束力的，

and the regular reviews will matter a lot.

定期回顾将会起重要作用。

But nations aren't waiting, they're going ahead.

但是有些国家没有等待， 他们在继续前进。

China has already announced that starting next year,

中国已经宣布明年开始，

they're adopting a nationwide cap and trade system.

将采取一个全国性的限制及交易体系。

They will likely link up with the European Union.

他们可能会与欧盟联手起来。

The United States has already been changing.

美国已经作出了改变。

All of these coal plants were proposed

所有这些燃煤电厂

都被提议在未来10年内作废。

in the next 10 years and canceled.

All of these existing coal plants were retired.

所有这些现有的燃煤电厂都已经退役了。

All of these coal plants have had their retirement announced.

所有这些燃煤电厂都已经做了退役公布。

All of them -- canceled.

它们全部——作废。

We are moving forward.

我们正在前进。

Last year -- if you look at all of the investment

如果你们看看去年，

in new electricity generation in the United States,

在美国，所有新的电力投资，

almost three-quarters was from renewable energy,

几乎四分之三来自于可再生能源，

mostly wind and solar.

大多数是风能和太阳能。

We are solving this crisis.

我们正在解决这场危机。

The only question is: how long will it take to get there?

唯一的问题是：多久才能到达那一步？

So, it matters that a lot of people are organizing

因此，很多人组织起来

坚持这件事的改变很重要。

to insist on this change.

Almost 400,000 people marched in New York City

就在联合国关于此问题的特别会议前，

before the UN special session on this.

近40万人在纽约进行了游行。

Many thousands, tens of thousands,

成千上万，成千上万的人，

marched in cities around the world.

在世界各地的城市进行了游行。

And so, I am extremely optimistic.

因此，我非常乐观。

As I said before, we are going to win this.

如我前面所说，我们正在赢得这场比赛。

I'll finish with this story.

我将用这个故事来完成演讲。

When I was 13 years old,

当我13岁时，

I heard that proposal by President Kennedy

我听到肯尼迪总统提议，

to land a person on the Moon and bring him back safely

在10年内，要送一个人登上月球，

in 10 years.

然后把他平安地带回来。

And I heard adults of that day and time say,

我听到那时的成年人说，

"That's reckless, expensive, may well fail."

“那是鲁莽的，昂贵的，很可能会失败。”

But eight years and two months later,

但是八年零二个月后，

in the moment that Neil Armstrong set foot on the Moon,

在尼尔•阿姆斯特朗踏上月球的那一刻，

there was great cheer that went up in NASA's mission control in Houston.

休斯敦美国航空航天局的

任务控制室响起了巨大的欢呼声。

Here's a little-known fact about that:

这里有一个鲜为人知的事实：

the average age of the systems engineers,

那天在控制室里的系统工程师的

the controllers in the room that day, was 26,

平均年龄是26岁。

which means, among other things,

这意味着，不管其他的事情，

their age, when they heard that challenge, was 18.

当他们听到那个挑战时， 他们的年龄是18。

We now have a moral challenge

如今我们有一个精神上的挑战，

that is in the tradition of others that we have faced.

这是我们在其他问题上所面对过的传统。

One of the greatest poets of the last century in the US,

上世纪美国最伟大的诗人之一，

Wallace Stevens,

华莱士•史蒂文，

wrote a line that has stayed with me:

写了一首诗，一直留在我的脑海中：

"After the final 'no,' there comes a 'yes,'

＂在最后一个「不行」后，接着的是「行」，

and on that 'yes', the future world depends."

而那个「行」，决定了未来。”

When the abolitionists started their movement,

当废奴主义者发起了他们的运动，

they met with no after no after no.

他们遇到的是「不行」「不行」「不行」

And then came a yes.

然后才是一个「行」。

The Women's Suffrage and Women's Rights Movement

妇女的选举权和女性权利运动

met endless no's, until finally, there was a yes.

遇到无数个「不行」， 直到最后，才有一个「行」。

The Civil Rights Movement, the movement against apartheid,

民权运动，反对种族隔离运动，

and more recently, the movement for gay and lesbian rights

及最近，在美国和其他地方的

here in the United States and elsewhere.

男同性恋和女同性恋权利运动。

After the final "no" comes a "yes."

最后一个「不行」，最终迎来的是「行」。

When any great moral challenge is ultimately resolved

当任何一个伟大的精神挑战，

最终被分解成，什么是对 什么是错的二元选择时，

into a binary choice between what is right and what is wrong,

the outcome is fore-ordained because of who we are as human beings.

结果都是预先注定好的，因为我们是人类。

Ninety-nine percent of us, that is where we are now

百分之九十九的人，是站在我们这边的，

and it is why we're going to win this.

这就是为什么我们会赢得这场比赛的原因。

We have everything we need.

我们已经拥有我们需要的一切。

Some still doubt that we have the will to act,

有些人仍在怀疑 我们是否有意愿去行动，

but I say the will to act is itself a renewable resource.

但我要告诉你，行动意愿的本身 就是可再生资源。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

谢谢。

谢谢。

非常感谢。

Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible combination of skills.

克里斯•安德森：你拥有 诸多令人难以置信的技能。

You've got this scientist mind that can understand

你有科学家的头脑，

能理解问题的所有面向，

the full range of issues,

and the ability to turn it into the most vivid language.

还有一种能将其转化为 生动的语言的能力。

No one else can do that, that's why you led this thing.

没有其他人能做到，

这就是为什么由你来领导这件事。

It was amazing to see it 10 years ago, it was amazing to see it now.

10年前看起来是惊人的， 现在看起来还是惊人的。

Al Gore: Well, you're nice to say that, Chris.

阿尔•戈尔：嗯，你真好， 这样说，克里斯。

But honestly, I have a lot of really good friends

但老实说，在科学界我有 很多真正的非常好朋友，

in the scientific community who are incredibly patient

他们都是难以置信的耐心。

and who will sit there and explain this stuff to me

他们愿意坐下来向我

over and over and over again

一遍又一遍又一遍地讲解，

until I can get it into simple enough language

直到我能把它变成足够简单的,

我能理解的语言。

that I can understand it.

And that's the key to trying to communicate.

这就是尝试沟通的关键。

CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,

克里斯•安德森：那么，你的演讲。

第一部份：很吓人！

second part: incredibly hopeful.

第二部份：难以置信的充满希望。

How do we know that all those graphs, all that progress, is enough

我们如何知道所有这些图表和进展，

足以解决你在第一部分所揭示的问题？

to solve what you showed in the first part?

AG: I think that the crossing --

阿尔•戈尔：我想是跨越——

you know, I've only been in the business world for 15 years.

你知道，我进入商业界只有15年。

But one of the things I've learned is that apparently it matters

但是我学到的，当然是重要的事情之一，

if a new product or service is more expensive

就是如果一个新产品或服务的价格

than the incumbent, or cheaper than.

贵过它应负的义务，或者便宜过它应负的义务，

Turns out, it makes a difference if it's cheaper than.

结果就是，如果它更便宜，它会产生差异化，

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And when it crosses that line,

当它跨越那条界线时，

then a lot of things really change.

然后很多事情真的会改变。

We are regularly surprised by these developments.

我们经常为这些事态发展感到惊讶。

The late Rudi Dornbusch, the great economist said,

伟大的已故经济学家 鲁迪•多恩布施说：

"Things take longer to happen then you think they will,

＂事情会发生的比你想的还要久

and then they happen much faster than you thought they could."

结果它们发生的比你想的快得多。 ”

I really think that's where we are.

我真的认为我们正处在这种情境。

Some people are using the phrase "The Solar Singularity" now,

一些人现在用“太阳能奇点”这句话，

meaning when it gets below the grid parity,

来表示，当它在没有补贴的時候，

unsubsidized in most places,

若低于「市电同价」时，

then it's the default choice.

它將成为默认（最佳）的选择。

Now, in one of the presentations yesterday, the jitney thing,

在昨天的报告中，一件小事，

there is an effort to use regulations to slow this down.

有人想用法规来让整件事慢下来。

And I just don't think it's going to work.

我只是不认为它会奏效。

There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,

在亚特兰大有一个女人，戴比．杜利，

who's the Chairman of the Atlanta Tea Party.

她是亚特兰大的茶党主席。

They enlisted her in this effort to put a tax

他们招募她来试图

on solar panels and regulations.

在太阳能板上加税和加法规。

And she had just put solar panels on her roof

她已经在她的房顶上装上了太阳能板

and she didn't understand the request.

她不懂那个要求。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

因此她离开了茶党，然后和 塞拉利昂俱乐部结成了联盟。

And so she went and formed an alliance with the Sierra Club

and they formed a new organization called the Green Tea Party.

然后他们组成了一个新的 组织，叫做绿色茶党。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

And they defeated the proposal.

然后他们击败了那个提议。

So, finally, the answer to your question is,

因此，最后，你问题的答案是，

this sounds a little corny and maybe it's a cliché,

这听起来也许有些平淡或是陈词滥调，

but 10 years ago -- and Christiana referred to this --

但是10年前——克里斯蒂安娜指出——

there are people in this audience who played an incredibly significant role

听众中有人在创造那些指数曲线中

in generating those exponential curves.

扮演了非常重要的角色。

And it didn't work out economically for some of them,

他们中的一些人， 发电状况虽沒那么地经济效率，

but it kick-started this global revolution.

但是它启动了全球革命。

And what people in this audience do now

现在听众要做的事情，

with the knowledge that we are going to win this.

就是用知识赢得这场比赛。

But it matters a lot how fast we win it.

但我们能多快赢，这非常重要。

CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.

克里斯•安德森：阿尔•戈尔， 这真的很激励人心。

If this turns out to be the year,

如果，党派之间的改变那一年的到来时，

that the partisan thing changes,

as you said, it's no longer a partisan issue,

如你所说的，这不再是党派问题。

but you bring along people from the other side together,

而是，你把不同立场的人

backed by science, backed by these kinds of investment opportunities,

把他们团结拉回来在一起，

到了那一天你就赢了—— 这会支持我再邀请你回来的理由，

backed by reason that you win the day --

boy, that's really exciting.

伙计，这真的令人兴奋。

Thank you so much.

非常感谢你，

AG: Thank you so much for bringing me back to TED.

阿尔•戈尔：感谢。

Thank you!

（鼓掌）

(Applause)