The case for optimism on climate change | Al Gore

譯者: Ya Ju Lee 審譯者: Regina Chu

I was excited to be a part of the "Dream" theme,

我很興奮能參與這次的 主題「夢想」，

and then I found out I'm leading off the "Nightmare?" section of it.

沒想到我卻在「惡夢」 這部分做開場。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And certainly there are things about the climate crisis that qualify.

氣候危機在某些方面 確實是場惡夢，

And I have some bad news,

我有一些壞消息，

but I have a lot more good news.

但我有更多的好消息。

I'm going to propose three questions

我將會提出三個問題，

and the answer to the first one

而第一個問題的答案

necessarily involves a little bad news.

無可避免的帶有一些壞消息。

But -- hang on, because the answers to the second and third questions

但是別喪氣， 因為第二和第三個問題的答案

really are very positive.

都是非常正向的。

So the first question is, "Do we really have to change?"

那麼，第一個問題是 「我們真的需要改變嗎？」

And of course, the Apollo Mission, among other things

當然，阿波羅計畫以及其他事物

changed the environmental movement,

改變了環境運動，

really launched the modern environmental movement.

真正發起了現代環境運動。

18 months after this Earthrise picture was first seen on earth,

在這張地球升起的照片 首次出現在地球上的 18 個月後，

the first Earth Day was organized.

第一次世界地球日（活動） 組織成立了。

And we learned a lot about ourselves

藉由從宇宙回顧我們的星球，

looking back at our planet from space.

我們也更加認識了自己。

And one of the things that we learned

而我們所發現的其中一件事，

confirmed what the scientists have long told us.

證實了長久以來科學家告訴我們的。

One of the most essential facts

其中一項最重要的事實，

about the climate crisis has to do with the sky.

就是氣候危機和天空息息相關。

As this picture illustrates,

如照片所示，

the sky is not the vast and limitless expanse

天空並非像我們 從地上仰望所看到的

that appears when we look up from the ground.

那樣廣大且遼闊無邊。

It is a very thin shell of atmosphere

天空是一層非常薄的大氣層

surrounding the planet.

環繞著地球。

That right now is the open sewer for our industrial civilization

現在它就像是一條 飽受汙染的無蓋下水道，

由目前的工業文明架構所導致。

as it's currently organized.

We are spewing 110 million tons

我們每 24 小時便排放出 １億１千萬噸

of heat-trapping global warming pollution into it every 24 hours,

會暖化地球的汙染物 進入大氣層，

free of charge, go ahead.

免費無負擔，儘管做吧。

And there are many sources of the greenhouse gases,

而溫室氣體的來源有很多，

I'm certainly not going to go through them all.

我當然無法一一敘明。

I'm going to focus on the main one,

我會專注在主要的來源上，

but agriculture is involved, diet is involved, population is involved.

但，農業是其中之一， 飲食也是、人口也是。

Management of forests, transportation,

林業、運輸、

the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.

海洋、永凍土融化統統都是。

But I'm going to focus on the heart of the problem,

不過我會聚焦在問題的核心，

which is the fact that we still rely on dirty, carbon-based fuels

也就是事實上 全世界每年有 85% 的能源

for 85 percent of all the energy that our world burns every year.

依然是靠燃燒骯髒的 碳基燃料所產生。

And you can see from this image that after World War II,

從圖上你們可以看到在二戰後，

碳排放率開始急遽竄升。

the emission rates started really accelerating.

And the accumulated amount of man-made, global warming pollution

而大量累積的 人為地球暖化物染物

that is up in the atmosphere now

現在上升到大氣層中，

困住的多餘熱能，相當於每 24 小時 便引爆 40 萬顆廣島原子彈，

traps as much extra heat energy as would be released

by 400,000 Hiroshima-class atomic bombs exploding

every 24 hours, 365 days a year.

而且持續連爆一年 365 天。

事實查證了一遍又一遍，

Fact-checked over and over again,

保守而言，這是事實。

conservative, it's the truth.

Now it's a big planet, but --

這是一個巨大的星球，但是……

（爆炸聲）

(Explosion sound)

那可是很多的能量。

that is a lot of energy,

particularly when you multiply it 400,000 times per day.

特別是當你把它乘上 每天 40 萬倍。

And all that extra heat energy

並且，所有那些多餘的熱能

is heating up the atmosphere, the whole earth system.

正在把大氣層、 整個地球系統加溫。

Let's look at the atmosphere.

我們來看一下大氣層。

這是我們過去 認為正常的溫度分布圖。

This is a depiction

of what we used to think of as the normal distribution of temperatures.

白色代表正常溫度的日子；

The white represents normal temperature days;

1951-1980 年是隨機選擇的年份。

1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.

The blue are cooler than average days,

藍色是比平均冷的日子，

紅色是比平均熱的日子。

the red are warmer than average days.

但是在 1980 年代 整個曲線移動到了右方。

But the entire curve has moved to the right in the 1980s.

And you'll see in the lower right-hand corner

你們會看到在右下角，

the appearance of statistically significant numbers

在統計上極度炎熱的日子 出現了相當顯著的數字。

of extremely hot days.

In the 90s, the curve shifted further.

在 90 年代 曲線又更進一步往右移。

And in the last 10 years, you see the extremely hot days

在最近的 10 年， 你們看到極度炎熱的日子

are now more numerous than the cooler than average days.

現在比起相對冷的日子 多出了很多天。

In fact, they are 150 times more common on the surface of the earth

事實上，炎熱的天數 在地球表面整整多出了 150 倍，

than they were just 30 years ago.

跟短短 30 年前相比。

So we're having record-breaking temperatures.

所以我們正擁有著破紀錄的溫度，

Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years ever measured with instruments

在 15 個有使用儀器測量 最熱的年份中，

有 14 個是在這個年輕的世紀。

have been in this young century.

The hottest of all was last year.

其中最熱的一年是去年，

Last month was the 371st month in a row

上個月則是 第 371 個連續的月份，

warmer than the 20th-century average.

比 20 世紀的平均溫度還要熱。

And for the first time, not only the warmest January,

並且，上個月不僅是 有始以來最熱的一月，

but for the first time, it was more than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer

還是第一次 比平均高了華氏 2 度。

than the average.

These higher temperatures are having an effect on animals,

較高的溫度對動物、

plants, people, ecosystems.

植物、人類及生態系統都有影響。

But on a global basis, 93 percent of all the extra heat energy

在以全球為基準的情況下， 93% 的多餘熱能

is trapped in the oceans.

是被困在海洋中。

And the scientists can measure the heat buildup

而科學家對於溫度的攀升

much more precisely now

現在有更精準的測量，

at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,

在各種深度：深、中層海洋

the first few hundred meters.

以及僅數百公尺淺層海洋，

And this, too, is accelerating.

溫度都正在加升。

It goes back more than a century.

這可以回溯到一個多世紀以前。

And more than half of the increase has been in the last 19 years.

並且有超過一半的升溫 是發生在過去 19 年。

This has consequences.

這些是有後果的。

The first order of consequence:

第一個後果便是

the ocean-based storms get stronger.

發源於海洋的風暴變得更強烈。

Super Typhoon Haiyan went over areas of the Pacific

超級颱風海燕 在侵襲獨魯萬市之前，

five and a half degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal

經過的太平洋地區 比平常的溫度高了華氏 5.5 度，

before it slammed into Tacloban,

而以有始以來 最具破壞性的颱風姿態登陸。

as the most destructive storm ever to make landfall.

Pope Francis, who has made such a difference to this whole issue,

教宗方濟各 在這整個議題上作了許多努力，

visited Tacloban right after that.

在那之後立刻拜訪了獨魯萬市。

Superstorm Sandy went over areas of the Atlantic

颶風桑迪在侵襲 紐約與紐澤西之前，

nine degrees warmer than normal

行經的大西洋區 比平常溫度高了華氏 9 度。

before slamming into New York and New Jersey.

The second order of consequences are affecting all of us right now.

而第二個後果 現在正影響著我們所有人。

The warmer oceans are evaporating much more water vapor into the skies.

升溫後的海洋 蒸發更多的水蒸氣進入天空。

Average humidity worldwide has gone up four percent.

世界各地的平均濕度 已增加了 4%，

And it creates these atmospheric rivers.

並製造出這些大氣長河。

The Brazilian scientists call them "flying rivers."

巴西的科學家稱它們為 「飛行的河流」。

And they funnel all of that extra water vapor over the land

它們把那些額外的水蒸氣 注入到大地之上，

where storm conditions trigger these massive record-breaking downpours.

觸發暴雨條件造成 這些破紀錄的傾盆大雨。

This is from Montana.

這是來自蒙大那州的照片。

Take a look at this storm last August.

看一下這個去年八月的暴風雨。

As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.

隨著它行經亞利桑那州土桑市，

It literally splashes off the city.

它就如字面上的意思 「倒濕」了整個城市。

These downpours are really unusual.

這些傾盆大雨非常的不尋常。

Last July in Houston, Texas,

去年七月在德州休士頓

it rained for two days, 162 billion gallons.

下了兩天的雨， 雨量高達一千六百二十億加侖。

That represents more than two days of the full flow of Niagara Falls

這比尼加拉瓜瀑布 在此城市之中

以全流量流出兩天的水量還多，

in the middle of the city,

which was, of course, paralyzed.

理所當然地，使之癱瘓。

These record downpours are creating historic floods and mudslides.

這些空前的大雨造成了 歷史性的洪水與土石流。

This one is from Chile last year.

這是去年的智利。

And you'll see that warehouse going by.

你會看到那個倉庫被沖走。

There are oil tankers cars going by.

那邊是油罐車漂過。

This is from Spain last September,

這是來自去年九月的西班牙，

you could call this the running of the cars and trucks, I guess.

我猜你們可以稱這個作 川流不息的汽車與卡車。

Every night on the TV news now is like a nature hike

現在每一晚的電視新聞都像

through the Book of Revelation.

在聖經《啟示錄》裡健行一樣。 （注：世界末日災難不斷）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I mean, really.

我是說真的。

The insurance industry has certainly noticed,

保險產業必然已經注意到

the losses have been mounting up.

虧損正在增長。

They're not under any illusions about what's happening.

他們對於正在發生的事 沒有任何的錯覺。

And the causality requires a moment of discussion.

而因果關係需要花一段時間討論。

We're used to thinking of linear cause and linear effect --

我們習慣於 線性因果關係的思考──

one cause, one effect.

一個原因，一個後果。

This is systemic causation.

然而這是一個系統的因果關係。

As the great Kevin Trenberth says,

如同偉大的氣象學家 凱文‧崔伯斯所說：

"All storms are different now.

「現在所有的暴風雨都是不同的，

There's so much extra energy in the atmosphere,

大氣層中有太多多餘的能量，

there's so much extra water vapor.

有太多額外的水蒸氣，

Every storm is different now."

每個暴風雨現在都是不一樣的。」

So, the same extra heat pulls the soil moisture out of the ground

而，同樣的多餘熱能 把土壤中的水分帶離土地，

and causes these deeper, longer, more pervasive droughts

造成這些更深、更久 更常見的乾旱，

and many of them are underway right now.

現在還有很多也依然在持續。

It dries out the vegetation

乾旱使草木枯萎，

and causes more fires in the western part of North America.

並在北美洲西部造成更多火災。

There's certainly been evidence of that, a lot of them.

很顯然還有其它跡象， 很多的跡象。

More lightning,

更多的閃電，

as the heat energy builds up, there's a considerable amount

隨著熱能的增加，

有相當程度的額外閃電也增加了。

of additional lightning also.

These climate-related disasters also have geopolitical consequences

這些與氣候相關的災難 同時也帶來地緣政治的後果，

and create instability.

並造成動盪。

The climate-related historic drought that started in Syria in 2006

敘利亞自 2006 年開始， 因氣候導致的歷史性乾旱

destroyed 60 percent of the farms in Syria,

摧毀了敘利亞 60% 的農田，

killed 80 percent of the livestock,

導致 80% 的牲畜死亡，

and drove 1.5 million climate refugees into the cities of Syria,

並驅使 150 萬名氣候難民 進入敘利亞的城市，

where they collided with another 1.5 million refugees

在那裡他們還會碰上 另外 150 萬

from the Iraq War.

源自於伊拉克戰爭的難民。

And along with other factors, that opened the gates of Hell

再綜合其他因素， 地獄之門便被開啟了，

that people are trying to close now.

人們現在在試圖關上它。

The US Defense Department has long warned

美國國防部早已警告

of consequences from the climate crisis,

氣候危機會造成的後果，

including refugees, food and water shortages

包括難民、食物以及水源短缺，

and pandemic disease.

還有流行性疾病。

Right now we're seeing microbial diseases from the tropics spread

現在我們看到來自熱帶地區的 微生物傳染疾病

to the higher latitudes;

散播到較高緯度的地區；

the transportation revolution has had a lot to do with this.

交通運輸革新對此有很大的影響。

But the changing conditions change the latitudes and the areas

但改變中的自然條件， 也改變了這些微生物疾病

where these microbial diseases can become endemic

可以傳播的緯度和區域，

and change the range of the vectors, like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.

並改變了傳染媒介的範圍， 像是蚊子與壁蝨等帶原者。

The Zika epidemic now --

現在的茲卡病毒感染症──

we're better positioned in North America

我們很幸運位在北美洲，

because it's still a little too cool and we have a better public health system.

因為這裡還是有點太冷， 而且我們有較佳的公共衛生制度。

But when women in some regions of South and Central America

然而在南美洲和中美洲 某些地區的婦女們，

are advised not to get pregnant for two years --

被建議至少兩年不要懷孕──

that's something new, that ought to get our attention.

這是值得我們關注的新議題。

The Lancet, one of the two greatest medical journals in the world,

《刺絡針》為世界上 最棒的二本醫學期刊之一，

last summer labeled this a medical emergency now.

去年夏天把個議題標記為 一項緊急醫療事件。

And there are many factors because of it.

這個問題還造成了其他許多現象。

This is also connected to the extinction crisis.

這同時也牽涉到滅絕危機。

We're in danger of losing 50 percent of all the living species on earth

我們正處於 地球上 50% 的生物

會在這個世紀末消失的危險之中。

by the end of this century.

And already, land-based plants and animals

並且陸上的植物與動物

are now moving towards the poles

早已開始往極地遷徙，

at an average rate of 15 feet per day.

以平均每天 15 英呎的速度移動。

Speaking of the North Pole,

說到北極，

last December 29, the same storm that caused historic flooding

去年 12 月 29 日，在美國中西部 造成嚴重水災的同一場暴風雨，

in the American Midwest,

raised temperatures at the North Pole

還提高了北極的溫度，

50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,

比平常溫度上升了華氏 50 度，

causing the thawing of the North Pole

造成北極在正值漫長、

in the middle of the long, dark, winter, polar night.

黑暗和寒冷的永夜期間融化。

And when the land-based ice of the Arctic melts,

而當北極的冰層融化，

it raises sea level.

會造成海平面上升。

Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph from Svalbard illustrates this.

保羅‧尼克蘭在斯瓦爾巴 拍攝的美麗照片呈現了這個景象。

It's more dangerous coming off Greenland

融化的現象在格陵蘭更加危急。

and particularly, Antarctica.

還有特別是南極。

The 10 largest risk cities for sea-level rise by population

十個最受海平面上升威脅的城市， 如果以人口來衡量

are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.

大多是位在南亞和東南亞，

When you measure it by assets at risk, number one is Miami:

用受到威脅的資產來衡量時， 首當其衝的是邁阿密：

three and a half trillion dollars at risk.

三兆五千億的美元的風險。

Number three: New York and Newark.

第三名則是紐約和紐華克。

I was in Miami last fall during the supermoon,

去年秋天，我人在邁阿密， 在超級月亮的期間，

one of the highest high-tide days.

也就是會有超級滿潮的日子，

And there were fish from the ocean swimming in some of the streets

來自海洋的魚在街道上游泳，

of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale

在邁阿密海灘、羅德岱堡

and Del Rey.

跟德拉海灘的街道。

And this happens regularly during the highest-tide tides now.

現在這個情況在超級滿潮期間 已成為常態發生的現象。

Not with rain -- they call it "sunny-day flooding."

沒有下雨──他們稱之為 「大晴天的水災」。

It comes up through the storm sewers.

是從雨水下水道冒出來的。

And the Mayor of Miami speaks for many when he says

而邁阿密的市長 說出了很多人的心聲，

it is long past time this can be viewed through a partisan lens.

他說這個問題早已不能 再以黨派的立場看待，

This is a crisis that's getting worse day by day.

這是一個災難， 而且一天比一天嚴重。

We have to move beyond partisanship.

我們必須採取超越黨派的行動。

And I want to take a moment to honor these House Republicans --

我想花一些時間來對這幾位 眾議院共和黨員表示尊敬──

(Applause)

（掌聲）

who had the courage last fall

他們在去年秋天

to step out and take a political risk,

勇敢地站出來並且承擔政治風險，

by telling the truth about the climate crisis.

說出了關於氣候危機的真相。

So the cost of the climate crisis is mounting up,

氣候危機所付出的代價正在攀升，

there are many of these aspects I haven't even mentioned.

還有許多部分是我尚未提到的。

It's an enormous burden.

氣候危機是相當龐大的負擔。

I'll mention just one more,

我只再舉一個例子。

because the World Economic Forum last month in Davos,

上個月在達佛斯的世界經濟論壇，

after their annual survey of 750 economists,

在對 750 位經濟學家 提出的年度調查，

said the climate crisis is now the number one risk

指出氣候危機對於世界經濟 是名列第一的威脅之後，

to the global economy.

So you get central bankers

你發現中央銀行總裁們，

like Mark Carney, the head of the UK Central Bank,

像是馬克·卡尼，英格蘭銀行總裁，

saying the vast majority of the carbon reserves are unburnable.

跳出來說絕大多數蘊藏的碳 是無法開採燃燒的。

Subprime carbon.

是「次級」碳。

I'm not going to remind you what happened with subprime mortgages,

我不是要提醒你們 次級房貸發生了什麼事，

but it's the same thing.

但這是同樣的道理。

If you look at all of the carbon fuels that were burned

如果你們回顧自工業革命開始

since the beginning of the industrial revolution,

所有被燃燒的碳燃料，

this is the quantity burned in the last 16 years.

這是過去 16 年燃燒的量，

Here are all the ones that are proven and left on the books,

而這邊是所有被證實 並且登記在案的量，

28 trillion dollars.

28 兆美元。

The International Energy Agency says only this amount can be burned.

國際能源署表示只有 這麼多的碳燃料可以開採燃燒，

So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --

所以其餘的，22 兆美元──

unburnable.

無法開採燃燒。

Risk to the global economy.

將會對世界經濟造成威脅。

That's why divestment movement makes practical sense

這也是為什麼（化石燃料） 撤資行動顯得很實際，

and is not just a moral imperative.

而不僅僅只是出於道德上的必要。

So the answer to the first question, "Must we change?"

所以第一個問題的答案 「我們一定要改變嗎？」

is yes, we have to change.

是肯定的，我們必須改變。

Second question, "Can we change?"

第二個問題是： 「我們可以改變嗎？」

This is the exciting news!

這是一個讓人興奮的消息！

The best projections in the world 16 years ago

16 年前世界上最樂觀的預測

were that by 2010, the world would be able to install

是在 2010 年時， 全世界將能夠達到

30 gigawatts of wind capacity.

300 億瓦的風力裝置發電容量，

We beat that mark by 14 and a half times over.

但我們以超過 14.5 倍的 實際發展打破了那個目標。

We see an exponential curve for wind installations now.

現在我們看到的是代表 風力發電裝置的指數曲線。

We see the cost coming down dramatically.

我們可以看到成本正在急遽降低。

Some countries -- take Germany, an industrial powerhouse

某些國家──以德國 這樣的工業強國為例，

with a climate not that different from Vancouver's, by the way --

附帶一提，氣候與溫哥華差不多，

one day last December,

去年 12 月的某天，

got 81 percent of all its energy from renewable resources,

81% 的能源是來自 可再生的能源，

mainly solar and wind.

主要是太陽能和風力。

A lot of countries are getting more than half on an average basis.

許多國家平均使用 一半以上的可再生能源。

More good news:

更多的好消息：

energy storage, from batteries particularly,

能量儲存，特別是電池，

is now beginning to take off

正在開始起飛，

because the cost has been coming down very dramatically

因為用來解決間歇性問題的成本 已經急速地下降。

to solve the intermittency problem.

With solar, the news is even more exciting!

關於太陽能的消息更是令人興奮！

The best projections 14 years ago were that we would install

14 年前最佳的預測是 我們能在 2010 年時

one gigawatt per year by 2010.

每年達到 10 億瓦，

When 2010 came around, we beat that mark by 17 times over.

然而當 2010 年到來時，我們以 超越預測的 17 倍，打敗了目標。

Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.

去年，我們超標 58 倍。

This year, we're on track to beat it 68 times over.

今年，我們在朝超標 68 倍前進。

We're going to win this.

我們將會成功。

We are going to prevail.

我們將會獲勝。

The exponential curve on solar is even steeper and more dramatic.

太陽能的指數曲線 甚至更陡峭，更有戲劇性。

When I came to this stage 10 years ago,

我十年前來到這個講台時，

this is where it was.

這是它所在的位置。

We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough

我們在這些指數曲線的激升上 見證了一場革命性的突破。

in the emergence of these exponential curves.

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And the cost has come down 10 percent per year

而成本也以 每年 10% 的速率降低，

for 30 years.

過去 30 年來皆是，

And it's continuing to come down.

並且仍在持續下降。

Now, the business community has certainly noticed this,

現在，商業界 顯然已注意到這件事，

because it's crossing the grid parity point.

因為它正要與市電同價相交了。

Cheaper solar penetration rates are beginning to rise.

較便宜的太陽能 使市場滲透率開始上升，

Grid parity is understood as that line, that threshold,

市電同價可以被理解為 像是一條線、一道門檻，

below which renewable electricity is cheaper than electricity

在那之下是可再生的電力 比燃燒化石燃料的電力

from burning fossil fuels.

還要便宜。

That threshold is a little bit like the difference

這道門檻有點像是

between 32 degrees Fahrenheit and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,

華氏 32 度與華氏 33 度，

or zero and one Celsius.

或者說是攝氏 0 度與 1 度的差別。

It's a difference of more than one degree,

這不只是多出 1 度的差別，

it's the difference between ice and water.

這是介於冰與水的差別。

And it's the difference between markets that are frozen up,

這是將資金 注入邁向冷凍的市場，

and liquid flows of capital into new opportunities for investment.

與將資金注入 新興投資機會的差別。

This is the biggest new business opportunity

這是世界有史以來 最大的新興產業機會，

in the history of the world,

and two-thirds of it is in the private sector.

並且有三分之二都是在民營範疇。

We are seeing an explosion of new investment.

我們在目擊一場新興投資的爆發，

Starting in 2010, investments globally in renewable electricity generation

自 2010 年開始， 全球在可再生能源發電的投資

surpassed fossils.

超過化石燃料，

The gap has been growing ever since.

差距並且自此逐漸拉大。

The projections for the future are even more dramatic,

對於未來的展望也更加令人興奮，

even though fossil energy is now still subsidized

儘管現在化石燃料仍受到

at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.

多過可再生能源 40 倍的資助。

And by the way, if you add the projections for nuclear on here,

順便一提， 如果你加上對核能的預測，

particularly if you assume that the work many are doing

特別是如果你假設 有許多人正在努力

to try to break through to safer and more acceptable,

嘗試去突破， 達成更安全、更能被接受

more affordable forms of nuclear,

以及更能負擔的核能形式時，

this could change even more dramatically.

改變可能會更加激烈。

So is there any precedent for such a rapid adoption

至於過往是否有如此快速 採用一項新科技的先例呢？

of a new technology?

Well, there are many, but let's look at cell phones.

是的，有很多， 讓我們回顧一下手機。

In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,

1980 年， AT&T 電信公司， 那時還叫 Ma Bell，

commissioned McKinsey to do a global market survey

委託麥肯錫公司 對當時新出現的那些笨重手機

of those clunky new mobile phones that appeared then.

做一個全球的市場調查。

"How many can we sell by the year 2000?" they asked.

他們問：「在 2000 年 我們可以賣出多少隻？」

McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."

麥肯錫做了調查並回答說 「90 萬隻。」

And sure enough, when the year 2000 arrived,

果然如此，到了 2000 年時

they did sell 900,000 -- in the first three days.

他們的確賣了 90 萬隻── 在最開始的 3 天。

And for the balance of the year, they sold 120 times more.

而在年度結餘， 他們賣了比預期的多出 120 倍。

And now there are more cell connections than there are people in the world.

而現在，世界上 手機的數量甚至比人還多。

So, why were they not only wrong, but way wrong?

所以為什麼他們不僅錯了， 而且還錯得很離譜呢？

I've asked that question myself, "Why?"

我也問過我自己這個問題： 「為什麼？」

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And I think the answer is in three parts.

我想答案可以分成三個部份。

First, the cost came down much faster than anybody expected,

首先，手機成本下降的速度 快到超過所有人的預期，

even as the quality went up.

儘管品質是提升的。

And low-income countries, places that did not have a landline grid --

而在低收入國家， 在沒有通訊線路的地方──

they leap-frogged to the new technology.

他們直接跳躍到新的科技。

The big expansion has been in the developing counties.

這種龐大的擴張在開發中國家盛行。

So what about the electricity grids in the developing world?

那麼輸電網路 在開發中國家的表現又如何呢？

Well, not so hot.

嗯，沒那麼熱門。

And in many areas, they don't exist.

而且在許多地區 根本沒有輸電網路。

There are more people without any electricity at all in India

在印度，沒有任何電力可用的人

than the entire population of the United States of America.

比起全美國的總人口數還要多。

So now we're getting this:

所以我們得到這個結果：

solar panels on grass huts

太陽能面板裝在茅草屋上，

and new business models that make it affordable.

而新的商業模式使人們能負擔得起。

Muhammad Yunus financed this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.

穆罕默德·尤納斯在孟加拉 提供低息小額貸款安裝這種面板。

This is a village market.

這是某個村莊的市場。

Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying country in the world:

孟加拉現在是世界上 發展最快速的開發中國家：

two systems per minute on average, night and day.

每一天平均每分鐘 便安裝二套太陽能系統。

And we have all we need:

我們擁有我們需要的一切：

enough energy from the Sun comes to the earth

每個小時都有足以 提供全球一整年所需的能源

every hour to supply the full world's energy needs for an entire year.

從太陽進入地球，

It's actually a little bit less than an hour.

事實上甚至是 不到一個小時就夠了。

So the answer to the second question, "Can we change?"

所以回答第二個問題： 「我們可以改變嗎？」

is clearly "Yes."

很明顯地，「可以」。

And it's an ever-firmer "yes."

而且是再堅定不過的「可以」。

Last question, "Will we change?"

最後一個問題： 「我們會改變嗎？」

Paris really was a breakthrough,

巴黎高峰會是一個真正的突破，

some of the provisions are binding

有些條款具有約束力，

and the regular reviews will matter a lot.

而定期的審查將是很重要的。

But nations aren't waiting, they're going ahead.

但各個國家可沒在空等待， 他們已毫不遲疑地開始行動。

China has already announced that starting next year,

中國早就宣佈，明年開始，

they're adopting a nationwide cap and trade system.

他們將要採用一套全國性的 （排放）總量管制與交易制度。

They will likely link up with the European Union.

他們極有可能與歐盟聯手。

The United States has already been changing.

美國也已經在改變。

All of these coal plants were proposed

所有計畫在未來十年內 要建設的燃煤發電廠

in the next 10 years and canceled.

都被取消了。

All of these existing coal plants were retired.

這些現存的燃煤發電廠 也已關廠。

All of these coal plants have had their retirement announced.

而剩下的這些燃煤發電廠 也已受到宣告將要關閉。

All of them -- canceled.

這些全部──都被廢除了。

We are moving forward.

我們在前進。

Last year -- if you look at all of the investment

去年──如果你觀察

in new electricity generation in the United States,

所有在美國的新型發電投資，

almost three-quarters was from renewable energy,

幾乎有四分之三是來自再生能源，

mostly wind and solar.

其中大部分是風力與太陽能。

We are solving this crisis.

我們正在解決這項危機。

The only question is: how long will it take to get there?

唯一的問題是： 「要花多久的時間？」

So, it matters that a lot of people are organizing

所以，人們組織起來 堅持這項改變是相當重要的。

to insist on this change.

Almost 400,000 people marched in New York City

有近乎四十萬人於紐約市遊行，

before the UN special session on this.

在聯合國針對此問題的 特別會議召開前夕。

Many thousands, tens of thousands,

數千人，數萬人

marched in cities around the world.

遊行於世界各個城市。

And so, I am extremely optimistic.

因此，我感到相當樂觀。

As I said before, we are going to win this.

就如同我前面所說的， 我們將會勝利。

I'll finish with this story.

我要以這個故事來做結尾。

When I was 13 years old,

當我 13 歲的時候，

I heard that proposal by President Kennedy

我聽到甘迺迪總統的計畫，

to land a person on the Moon and bring him back safely

要讓人登陸月球 並平安無事地回來，

in 10 years.

在十年之內。

And I heard adults of that day and time say,

我也聽到當時的大人說：

"That's reckless, expensive, may well fail."

「這是魯莽、昂貴、 極可能失敗的。」

But eight years and two months later,

但是八年二個月之後，

in the moment that Neil Armstrong set foot on the Moon,

當尼爾·阿姆斯壯踏上 月球的剎那，

there was great cheer that went up in NASA's mission control in Houston.

在休士頓 NASA 的任務中心 發出了響徹雲霄的歡呼。

Here's a little-known fact about that:

這裡是一些鮮為人知的事實：

the average age of the systems engineers,

當天在那個房間裡的 系統工程師、管制員的

the controllers in the room that day, was 26,

平均年齡是 26 歲。

which means, among other things,

這代表，包括其它事情，

their age, when they heard that challenge, was 18.

他們在聽到那項挑戰時 是 18 歲。

We now have a moral challenge

我們現在則有一個道德挑戰，

that is in the tradition of others that we have faced.

一如我們過往所面臨的挑戰。

One of the greatest poets of the last century in the US,

美國上個世紀一位傑出的詩人，

Wallace Stevens,

華萊士·史蒂文斯，

wrote a line that has stayed with me:

寫了一段我銘記在心的話：

"After the final 'no,' there comes a 'yes,'

「在最終的『不』之後， 將會迎來一個『好』。

and on that 'yes', the future world depends."

而那個『好』， 未來世界取決於上。」

When the abolitionists started their movement,

當廢奴主義者開始他們的運動時，

they met with no after no after no.

他們碰到一個又一個的不，

And then came a yes.

然後是一個好。

The Women's Suffrage and Women's Rights Movement

女性參政權與女權運動

met endless no's, until finally, there was a yes.

碰到無數的不， 直到最後得到了一個好。

The Civil Rights Movement, the movement against apartheid,

黑人民權運動， 即反對種族隔離的運動，

and more recently, the movement for gay and lesbian rights

以及就在最近 關於男女同性戀權利的運動，

here in the United States and elsewhere.

在美國以及世界各地，

After the final "no" comes a "yes."

在最終的「不」之後， 是一個「好」。

When any great moral challenge is ultimately resolved

當任何一個重要的道德挑戰，

最終成為對錯之間的二元選擇時，

into a binary choice between what is right and what is wrong,

the outcome is fore-ordained because of who we are as human beings.

結果是注定的， 因為我們身為人類。

Ninety-nine percent of us, that is where we are now

99% 的我們， 這是我們現在的處境，

and it is why we're going to win this.

這也是我們為什麼會獲勝的原因。

We have everything we need.

我們擁有我們所需要的一切。

Some still doubt that we have the will to act,

有些人仍在懷疑 我們是否有行動的意志。

but I say the will to act is itself a renewable resource.

但我要說行動的意志本身 就是可再生的能源。

Thank you very much.

非常謝謝你們。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible combination of skills.

克里斯·安德森： 你有超乎尋常的結合能力。

You've got this scientist mind that can understand

你有科學家的頭腦可以了解

the full range of issues,

這整個議題，

and the ability to turn it into the most vivid language.

並且有能力將之化成生動的語言。

No one else can do that, that's why you led this thing.

沒有其他人可以做到這一點， 這正是為什麼是由你領導這個行動。

It was amazing to see it 10 years ago, it was amazing to see it now.

十年前聽到令人震撼， 現在依然也是。

Al Gore: Well, you're nice to say that, Chris.

艾爾·高爾： 你太客氣了，克理斯。

But honestly, I have a lot of really good friends

但老實說， 我有很多很棒的朋友

in the scientific community who are incredibly patient

來自於科學界，他們不厭其煩的

and who will sit there and explain this stuff to me

坐在那邊並對我解釋這一切，

over and over and over again

一遍又一遍，

until I can get it into simple enough language

直到我可以理解並能轉化成 我可以了解的簡單語言。

that I can understand it.

And that's the key to trying to communicate.

而這也是去嘗試溝通的要點。

CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,

克理斯：所以，在你的演講中 第一個部分：可怕的。

second part: incredibly hopeful.

第二個部分：充滿無比希望的。

How do we know that all those graphs, all that progress, is enough

我們怎麼知道這邊 所有的圖表、所有的進步，

是足以用來解決 你在第一部分所展示的問題呢？

to solve what you showed in the first part?

AG: I think that the crossing --

高爾：我想在跨越……

you know, I've only been in the business world for 15 years.

你知道，我進入商業界 只有 15 年。

But one of the things I've learned is that apparently it matters

但我學到的其中一件事就是， 很顯然一項新商品或是服務

if a new product or service is more expensive

是否比現有的商品 更貴或更便宜很重要，

than the incumbent, or cheaper than.

Turns out, it makes a difference if it's cheaper than.

而結果是， 更便宜時才會造成改變。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And when it crosses that line,

而當跨越那個標準時，

then a lot of things really change.

很多事情便真正改變了。

We are regularly surprised by these developments.

我們經常對這些發展感到驚訝。

The late Rudi Dornbusch, the great economist said,

已故的偉大經濟學家 魯迪‧登布修曾說：

"Things take longer to happen then you think they will,

「事情發展得比你預期得慢，

and then they happen much faster than you thought they could."

然後又發展得超乎你想像得快。」

I really think that's where we are.

我真的認為那是我們現在的處境。

Some people are using the phrase "The Solar Singularity" now,

有些人現在甚至用 「太陽能唯一」這個詞，

meaning when it gets below the grid parity,

來表示當太陽能下降至 市電平價之下，

unsubsidized in most places,

且在大部分的地區 都不需要受到資助時，

then it's the default choice.

太陽能將成為一個預設的選擇。

Now, in one of the presentations yesterday, the jitney thing,

那麼昨天有一場演說 在談共享計程車，

there is an effort to use regulations to slow this down.

有些人也嘗試用法律規範 來拖延太陽能的發展，

And I just don't think it's going to work.

但我就是認為這不可能成功。

There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,

在亞特蘭大有一位婦女 黛比‧朵莉，

who's the Chairman of the Atlanta Tea Party.

她是亞特蘭大茶黨的主席。

They enlisted her in this effort to put a tax

他們徵召她來為課徵太陽能板稅收 與相關規範出力。

on solar panels and regulations.

And she had just put solar panels on her roof

而她才剛剛將太陽能板裝上屋頂。

and she didn't understand the request.

所以她不太能理解他們的請求。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And so she went and formed an alliance with the Sierra Club

因此，她跑去與環保組織 塞拉俱樂部組織同盟，

and they formed a new organization called the Green Tea Party.

他們成立了一個新的組織 叫綠茶黨。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

And they defeated the proposal.

他們否決了那項提議。

So, finally, the answer to your question is,

所以，最後， 對於你問題的答案是，

this sounds a little corny and maybe it's a cliché,

這可能聽起來有點老掉牙， 而且或許有些陳腔濫調，

but 10 years ago -- and Christiana referred to this --

但是十年前── 克莉斯丁安娜提到──

there are people in this audience who played an incredibly significant role

這群觀眾之中有某些人 扮演了難以言喻的重要角色，

in generating those exponential curves.

貢獻產生那些指數曲線。

And it didn't work out economically for some of them,

他們之中有某些人 經濟上來說並沒有成功，

but it kick-started this global revolution.

但卻為了地球的改革 揭開了序幕。

And what people in this audience do now

而在場的觀眾們現在

with the knowledge that we are going to win this.

有了我們將會勝利的認知。

But it matters a lot how fast we win it.

但是我們能多快成功 將影響重大。

CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.

克里斯：艾爾‧高爾， 那真是撼動人心的回答。

If this turns out to be the year,

如果今年剛巧就是

that the partisan thing changes,

政黨輪替的一年，

as you said, it's no longer a partisan issue,

如你所言， 這不再只是一個黨的問題，

but you bring along people from the other side together,

而你凝聚了雙方人馬，

backed by science, backed by these kinds of investment opportunities,

有科學、各種投資機會背書，

backed by reason that you win the day --

有你說服大家的理由背書，

boy, that's really exciting.

朋友，這真是非常振奮人心，

Thank you so much.

非常謝謝你。

AG: Thank you so much for bringing me back to TED.

高爾：非常感謝你們 邀請我重返 TED。

謝謝！

Thank you!

(Applause)

（掌聲）