How accurate is the weather forecast? | Am I Normal? With Mona Chalabi

Transcriber:

No one remembers when you're right,

Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Milenka Okuka

Niko ne pamti kada ste u pravu,

but no one forgets when you're wrong.

ali niko ne zaboravlja kada niste.

That's a saying we can all probably relate to.

S tom izrekom verovatno svi možemo da se poistovetimo.

But arguably, no one deals with the backlash of getting things wrong

Ali kladim se da se niko ne suočava sa posledicama grešenja

as regularly as a weather person.

toliko redovno koliko meteorolog.

[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]

[Da li sam ja normalan? sa Monom Šalabi]

From angry Twitter posts to hate mail,

Od ljutih tvitova do mejlova punih mržnje,

people can get really annoyed

ljudi se prilično iznerviraju

when the forecast is nothing like the reality.

kada se prognoza ne slaže sa stvarnošću.

In 1964, the director of the Taiwan provincial weather bureau

Godine 1964, direktor Tajvanskog provincijskog vremeskog biroa

was even indicted for failing to correctly forecast the path of a typhoon.

bio je osuđen za pogrešnu prognozu putanje jednog tajfuna.

So is our anger justified?

Da li je naš bes opravdan?

I decided to find out just how accurate the weatherman really is.

Odlučila sam da saznam koliko je vremenska prognoza tačna.

By comparing forecasts from 2017

Poredeći prognoze iz 2017.

to the actual temperatures that were recorded,

sa stvarnim zabeleženim temperaturama,

I found that, as you'd expect,

otkrila sam da je, kao što biste očekivali,

the forecast gets more accurate the closer you are to the actual date.

prognoza tačnija što ste bliži tačnom datumu.

So, for instance, when the US National Weather Service

Na primer, kada je Nacionalna vremenska služba SAD-a

issued a forecast seven days in advance,

objavila prognozu sedam dana unapred,

it was off by over six degrees Fahrenheit.

ona je bila pogrešna za više od šest stepeni Farenhajta.

At one day in advance,

Jedan dan unapred

their forecast was only off by about three degrees.

njihova prognoza je grešila za samo oko tri stepena.

But even though better modeling

Ali iako bi bolji modeli

and better technology is expected to bring us better forecasts,

i bolja tehnologija trebalo da nam daju bolje prognoze,

we may never be able to predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy.

možda nikada nećemo moći da damo prognozu sa 100 posto tačnosti.

That's because there are more than 100 tredecilion molecules

To je zato što u atmosferi postoji

više od 100 septiliona molekula.

in the atmosphere.

That is the number one, followed by 44 zeros.

To je borj jedan praćen sa 42 nule.

So if we wanted to predict the weather with absolute certainty,

Ako želimo da predvidimo vreme sa apsolutnom sigurnošću,

we would need to know the position and movement

trebalo bi da znamo položaj i kretanje

of all of those particles,

svih tih čestica,

which is basically impossible for even our best computers.

što je u osnovi nemoguće čak i najboljim računarima.

And our drive to know the future isn't limited to the weather.

Naša težnja da znamo budućnost nije ograničena na vreme.

Take elections, for example.

Uzmimo, na primer, izbore.

Despite what some websites or publications may lead you to believe,

Uprkos tome što neki sajtovi i publikacije žele da verujete,

the most accurate election polls

najtačniji rezultati izbora

are the ones that are taken on election day,

su oni koji se beleže na dan izbora,

not the ones that are carried out in advance.

a ne oni koji se mere unapred.

So the lesson here isn't a terribly surprising one.

Ova lekcija nije strašno iznenađujuća.

Accurate predictions depend on accurate information.

Tačna predviđanja zavise od tačnih informacija.

And the further out you are,

Što ste dalje,

the higher the chances that information can change.

veća je šansa da se informacije promene.

So for better accuracy, you just need to be patient.

Dakle za veću preciznost treba samo da budete strpljivi.

Try to hold off as close as you can to the actual event.

Probajte da sačekate što više do određenog događaja.

And for now, go easy on your local weather person.

I za sada, budite blagi prema lokalnom meteorologu.