How accurate is the weather forecast? | Am I Normal? With Mona Chalabi

68,348 views ・ 2021-11-23

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:00
Transcriber:
0
0
7000
00:00
No one remembers when you're right,
1
0
1796
Prevodilac: Ivana Korom Lektor: Milenka Okuka
Niko ne pamti kada ste u pravu,
00:01
but no one forgets when you're wrong.
2
1836
2200
ali niko ne zaboravlja kada niste.
00:04
That's a saying we can all probably relate to.
3
4076
2360
S tom izrekom verovatno svi možemo da se poistovetimo.
00:06
But arguably, no one deals with the backlash of getting things wrong
4
6476
3320
Ali kladim se da se niko ne suočava sa posledicama grešenja
00:09
as regularly as a weather person.
5
9836
1880
toliko redovno koliko meteorolog.
00:11
[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]
6
11756
2600
[Da li sam ja normalan? sa Monom Šalabi]
00:14
From angry Twitter posts to hate mail,
7
14396
1840
Od ljutih tvitova do mejlova punih mržnje,
00:16
people can get really annoyed
8
16276
1400
ljudi se prilično iznerviraju
00:17
when the forecast is nothing like the reality.
9
17716
2920
kada se prognoza ne slaže sa stvarnošću.
00:21
In 1964, the director of the Taiwan provincial weather bureau
10
21236
3360
Godine 1964, direktor Tajvanskog provincijskog vremeskog biroa
00:24
was even indicted for failing to correctly forecast the path of a typhoon.
11
24596
4320
bio je osuđen za pogrešnu prognozu putanje jednog tajfuna.
00:28
So is our anger justified?
12
28956
1800
Da li je naš bes opravdan?
00:30
I decided to find out just how accurate the weatherman really is.
13
30796
3320
Odlučila sam da saznam koliko je vremenska prognoza tačna.
00:34
By comparing forecasts from 2017
14
34156
1960
Poredeći prognoze iz 2017.
00:36
to the actual temperatures that were recorded,
15
36116
2560
sa stvarnim zabeleženim temperaturama,
00:38
I found that, as you'd expect,
16
38716
1480
otkrila sam da je, kao što biste očekivali,
00:40
the forecast gets more accurate the closer you are to the actual date.
17
40196
3680
prognoza tačnija što ste bliži tačnom datumu.
00:43
So, for instance, when the US National Weather Service
18
43916
2520
Na primer, kada je Nacionalna vremenska služba SAD-a
00:46
issued a forecast seven days in advance,
19
46476
2280
objavila prognozu sedam dana unapred,
00:48
it was off by over six degrees Fahrenheit.
20
48796
2960
ona je bila pogrešna za više od šest stepeni Farenhajta.
00:51
At one day in advance,
21
51796
1200
Jedan dan unapred
00:52
their forecast was only off by about three degrees.
22
52996
2800
njihova prognoza je grešila za samo oko tri stepena.
00:55
But even though better modeling
23
55796
1640
Ali iako bi bolji modeli
00:57
and better technology is expected to bring us better forecasts,
24
57476
3520
i bolja tehnologija trebalo da nam daju bolje prognoze,
01:01
we may never be able to predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy.
25
61036
3640
možda nikada nećemo moći da damo prognozu sa 100 posto tačnosti.
01:04
That's because there are more than 100 tredecilion molecules
26
64716
3880
To je zato što u atmosferi postoji
više od 100 septiliona molekula.
01:08
in the atmosphere.
27
68636
1160
01:09
That is the number one, followed by 44 zeros.
28
69836
3080
To je borj jedan praćen sa 42 nule.
01:12
So if we wanted to predict the weather with absolute certainty,
29
72916
3680
Ako želimo da predvidimo vreme sa apsolutnom sigurnošću,
01:16
we would need to know the position and movement
30
76636
2400
trebalo bi da znamo položaj i kretanje
01:19
of all of those particles,
31
79076
1520
svih tih čestica,
01:20
which is basically impossible for even our best computers.
32
80636
3160
što je u osnovi nemoguće čak i najboljim računarima.
01:23
And our drive to know the future isn't limited to the weather.
33
83836
3320
Naša težnja da znamo budućnost nije ograničena na vreme.
01:27
Take elections, for example.
34
87196
1600
Uzmimo, na primer, izbore.
01:28
Despite what some websites or publications may lead you to believe,
35
88836
3400
Uprkos tome što neki sajtovi i publikacije žele da verujete,
01:32
the most accurate election polls
36
92276
1720
najtačniji rezultati izbora
01:34
are the ones that are taken on election day,
37
94036
2240
su oni koji se beleže na dan izbora,
01:36
not the ones that are carried out in advance.
38
96316
2120
a ne oni koji se mere unapred.
01:38
So the lesson here isn't a terribly surprising one.
39
98436
2880
Ova lekcija nije strašno iznenađujuća.
01:41
Accurate predictions depend on accurate information.
40
101356
2720
Tačna predviđanja zavise od tačnih informacija.
01:44
And the further out you are,
41
104116
1480
Što ste dalje,
01:45
the higher the chances that information can change.
42
105636
3040
veća je šansa da se informacije promene.
01:48
So for better accuracy, you just need to be patient.
43
108716
2960
Dakle za veću preciznost treba samo da budete strpljivi.
01:51
Try to hold off as close as you can to the actual event.
44
111716
3160
Probajte da sačekate što više do određenog događaja.
01:54
And for now, go easy on your local weather person.
45
114916
3200
I za sada, budite blagi prema lokalnom meteorologu.
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7