How accurate is the weather forecast? | Am I Normal? With Mona Chalabi

Transcriber:

No one remembers when you're right,

翻译人员: Gia Hwang 校对人员: Carol Wang

你做对了，没人记得；

but no one forgets when you're wrong.

但若你错了，则无人忘却。

That's a saying we can all probably relate to.

这种说法可能人人有体会，

But arguably, no one deals with the backlash of getting things wrong

但可以说，没人像天气预报员那样

as regularly as a weather person.

经常因错报而遭受指责。

[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]

[梦娜·凯乐贝《这正常吗？》]

From angry Twitter posts to hate mail,

从愤怒的推特帖子到仇恨邮件，

people can get really annoyed

当预测与现实相差甚远时，

when the forecast is nothing like the reality.

人们会非常恼火。

In 1964, the director of the Taiwan provincial weather bureau

1964 年，台湾气象局局长

was even indicted for failing to correctly forecast the path of a typhoon.

甚至因未正确预测台风路径被起诉。

So is our anger justified?

那么，这样的愤怒合理吗?

I decided to find out just how accurate the weatherman really is.

我决定搞清天气预报员到底多准。

By comparing forecasts from 2017

通过比较 2017 年的预测温度

to the actual temperatures that were recorded,

与实际温度，

I found that, as you'd expect,

我发现，正如预期那样，

the forecast gets more accurate the closer you are to the actual date.

越接近实际日期，预测越准。

So, for instance, when the US National Weather Service

如，当美国国家气象局

issued a forecast seven days in advance,

提前 7 天发布预报时，

it was off by over six degrees Fahrenheit.

其偏差超过 6 华氏度；

At one day in advance,

若提前 1 天预测，

their forecast was only off by about three degrees.

其预测差大约仅 3 度。

But even though better modeling

但是，即使更好的模型和技术

and better technology is expected to bring us better forecasts,

有望带来更好的天气预报，

we may never be able to predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy.

可能永远做不到百分百地准确预测，

That's because there are more than 100 tredecilion molecules

因为大气中的分子数量

达到 10 的 44 次方，

in the atmosphere.

That is the number one, followed by 44 zeros.

即 1 后面有 44 个 0。

So if we wanted to predict the weather with absolute certainty,

即若想准确地预测天气，

we would need to know the position and movement

就需要知道

所有这些粒子的位置和运动，

of all of those particles,

which is basically impossible for even our best computers.

这连最好的计算机也做不到。

And our drive to know the future isn't limited to the weather.

但我们了解未来的动力， 并非仅限于天气。

Take elections, for example.

以选举为例，

Despite what some websites or publications may lead you to believe,

尽管一些网站或出版物 可能会让你相信，

the most accurate election polls

最准确的选举民意调查

are the ones that are taken on election day,

发生在选举日当天，

not the ones that are carried out in advance.

而非提前进行的那些调查。

So the lesson here isn't a terribly surprising one.

这并非令人惊异的教训，

Accurate predictions depend on accurate information.

准确预测取决于准确的信息，

And the further out you are,

预测越早，

the higher the chances that information can change.

信息改变的可能性越大。

So for better accuracy, you just need to be patient.

所以，为提高准确性，要有耐心，

Try to hold off as close as you can to the actual event.

尽量等临近事件发生再预测。

And for now, go easy on your local weather person.

因此，对天气预报员客气点吧。