How accurate is the weather forecast? | Am I Normal? With Mona Chalabi

Transcriber:

No one remembers when you're right,

譯者: Mei Cho 審譯者: Helen Chang

你做對的時候沒人記得，

but no one forgets when you're wrong.

但你錯的時候沒人會忘記。

That's a saying we can all probably relate to.

我們所有人可能都有同感。

But arguably, no one deals with the backlash of getting things wrong

但可以說，沒有人像天氣專家那樣

經常得面對預報錯誤的強烈反應。

as regularly as a weather person.

[Am I Normal? with Mona Chalabi]

「我正常嗎? 莫娜·查拉比」

From angry Twitter posts to hate mail,

從憤懣推特推文到騷擾信，

people can get really annoyed

天氣預報錯了，人們會非常惱怒。

when the forecast is nothing like the reality.

In 1964, the director of the Taiwan provincial weather bureau

1964年，台灣省氣象所長

was even indicted for failing to correctly forecast the path of a typhoon.

甚至因預測錯颱風路徑而被起訴。

So is our anger justified?

但我們的不滿有理嗎?

I decided to find out just how accurate the weatherman really is.

我試著分析氣象員的準確性。

By comparing forecasts from 2017

透過將2017年的預報

to the actual temperatures that were recorded,

與紀錄在案的溫度做比較，

I found that, as you'd expect,

我發現，如你所想，

the forecast gets more accurate the closer you are to the actual date.

離預警期越近，預報越準確。

So, for instance, when the US National Weather Service

例如，美國國家氣象局

issued a forecast seven days in advance,

七天前發布的預報 和實際溫度相差超過華氏6度。

it was off by over six degrees Fahrenheit.

At one day in advance,

前一天的預報， 只和實際溫度差3度。

their forecast was only off by about three degrees.

But even though better modeling

即便更好的建模及科技 有望讓我們更精準預測天氣，

and better technology is expected to bring us better forecasts,

we may never be able to predict the weather with 100 percent accuracy.

我們仍無法百分之百準確預報天氣，

That's because there are more than 100 tredecilion molecules

原因是大氣分子數 超過10的44次方，

in the atmosphere.

That is the number one, followed by 44 zeros.

也就是1後加44個0。

So if we wanted to predict the weather with absolute certainty,

如果想要精準預測天氣，

we would need to know the position and movement

我們得知道所有粒子的位置及動向，

of all of those particles,

which is basically impossible for even our best computers.

即便是超級電腦也根本做不到。

And our drive to know the future isn't limited to the weather.

天氣不是我們唯一想預知的未來。

Take elections, for example.

舉選舉為例，

Despite what some websites or publications may lead you to believe,

儘管有些網站或刊物會洗腦你，

the most accurate election polls

但選舉日的民意調查才是最準的，

are the ones that are taken on election day,

not the ones that are carried out in advance.

而不是事前的。

So the lesson here isn't a terribly surprising one.

這並非最驚人的事實。

Accurate predictions depend on accurate information.

確切資訊才能精準預測。

And the further out you are,

距事發日越早，

the higher the chances that information can change.

資訊越易改變。

So for better accuracy, you just need to be patient.

因此，只要有耐心， 就能提高準確度。

Try to hold off as close as you can to the actual event.

盡量貼近事發日在做預測。

And for now, go easy on your local weather person.

現在，寬待你的氣象員。