Yuval Noah Harari: The Actual Cost of Preventing Climate Breakdown | TED

Prevodilac: Milenka Okuka Lektor: Stefan Mitikj

As the climate crisis worsens,

Kako se klimatska kriza pogoršava,

too many people are swinging from denial straight to despair.

previše ljudi prelazi iz poricanja pravo u očaj.

But we should not lose hope.

Međutim, ne smemo da gubimo nadu.

Humanity has enormous resources under its command,

Čovečanstvo upravlja ogromnim resursima,

and by applying them wisely,

i njihovom mudrom primenom,

we can still prevent ecological cataclysm.

još uvek možemo sprečiti ekološku kataklizmu.

Let's talk numbers.

Razgovarajmo o brojevima.

What would it cost to prevent catastrophic climate change?

Koliko bi koštalo da se izbegnu katastrofalne klimatske promene?

Would we have to commit 50 percent of our total budget?

Da li bismo morali da odvojimo 50 procenata našeg sveukupnog budžeta?

Thirty percent?

Trideset procenata?

Ten percent?

Deset procenata?

Naturally enough, no one knows for sure.

Prirodno, niko zasigurno ne zna.

My team and I have spent weeks poring over various reports

Moja ekipa i ja smo proveli sedmice pretresajući razne izveštaje

and academic papers living in a cloud of numbers.

i akademske radove, živeći u oblaku brojeva.

But while the models behind the numbers are dizzyingly complex,

Ipak, dok su modeli iza brojeva vrtoglavo složeni,

the bottom line should cheer us up.

krajnji zbir bi trebalo da nas oraspoloži.

Most experts converge on the number two percent.

Većina eksperata se slaže sa brojem dva procenta.

If humanity increases our annual investment in clean technologies

Ukoliko čovečanstvo poveća naša godišnja ulaganja u čiste tehnologije

and infrastructure by around two percent of global GDP,

i infrastrukturu za oko dva procenta globalnog BDP-a,

that should be enough to prevent catastrophic climate change.

to bi trebalo da bude dovoljno da se spreče katastrofalne klimatske promene.

If you want to see how experts got to that number,

Ako želite da vidite kako su eksperti stigli do tog broja,

you're welcome to visit the Sapienship website.

dobrodošli ste da posetite vebsajt Sapienship.

We can, of course, argue endlessly about the exact number,

Možemo, naravno, da vodimo beskrajne rasprave o tačnom broju,

tweaking the models this way and that way.

štimujući modele ovako i onako.

But we should look at the big picture.

Međutim, trebalo bi da sagledamo širu sliku.

The crucial news is that the price tag of preventing the apocalypse

Suštinska vest je da je cena sprečavanja apokalipse

is in the low single digits of annual global GDP.

u nižim jednocifrenim brojevima godišnjeg globalnog BDP-a.

Even the more pessimistic models

Čak je i pesimističniji modeli

generally estimate it at below five percent.

uopšteno procenjuju ispod pet procenata.

And most models say it requires investing

A većina modela kaže da je potrebno ulagati

only an additional two percent of global GDP in the right places.

samo dodatna dva procenta globalnog BDP-a na prava mesta.

And note the word investing.

A naglasak je na reči ulaganje.

We are not talking about burning piles of banknotes

Ne govorimo o spaljivanju hrpa novčanica

in some huge sacrifice to the spirits of the Earth.

u nekakvoj velikoj žrtvi duhovima Zemlje.

We are talking about making investments

Govorimo o ulaganjima

in new technologies and infrastructure,

u nove tehnologije i infrastrukturu,

such as advanced batteries or other technologies

poput unapređenih baterija ili drugih tehnologija

to store solar energy

koje bi skladištile solarnu energiju,

and updated power grids to distribute it.

kao i prilagođavanju električne mreže za njenu distribuciju.

These investments will create lots of new jobs and economic opportunities

Ova ulaganja će stovriti mnogo novih poslova i ekonomskih šansi

and are likely to be economically profitable in the long run,

i izgledno je da će biti ekonomski isplativa na duže staze,

in part by reducing health care expenditures

delimično umanjujući zdravstvene izdatke

and saving millions of people from sickness caused by air pollution.

i spašavajući milione ljudi od bolesti izazvanih zagađenjem vazduha.

In addition, since oil and gas often prop up autocratic and militaristic regimes,

Dodatno, kako nafta i gas često podupiru autokratske i militarističke režime,

reducing our dependence on fossil fuels

umanjenje naše zavisnosti od fosilnih goriva

will be a huge boon to democracy and to peace.

će da bude ogromna blagodet za demokratiju i mir.

All this can be translated into a concrete political plan of action.

Sve ovo može da se prevede u konkretan plan političkog delanja.

We have learned in recent years to define our goal in terms of one number:

Naučili smo u proteklim godinama da određujemo naš cilj u smislu jednog broja:

1.5 degrees Celsius.

1,5 stepeni celzijusa.

We can define the means to do this

Možemo da definišemo sredstva da to postignemo

with another number: two percent.

sa drugim brojem: dva procenta.

Increased investment in clean technologies and infrastructure

Uvećavajući ulaganja u čiste tehnologije i infrastrukturu

by two percentage points of global GDP,

za dva procentna poena globalnog BDP-a

above 2020 levels.

iznad nivoa iz 2020.

Of course, unlike the 1.5 Celsius figure,

Naravno, nasuprot proceni od 1,5 stepeni celzijusa,

which is a scientifically robust threshold,

koja je naučno utemeljen prag,

the two-percent figure represents only a rough guesstimate.

procena od dva procenta predstavlja samo grubo nagađanje.

It should be understood as a ballpark figure

Trebalo bi je razumeti kao grubu procenu

that can help to frame

koja pomaže da se izrazi

the kind of political project humanity requires.

vid političkog projekta koji je neophodan čovečanstvu.

It tells us that preventing catastrophic climate change

Govori nam da je sprečavanje katastrofalnih klimatskih promena

is a totally feasible project,

u potpunosti izvodljiv projekat,

even though it would obviously cost a lot of money.

iako bi, očito, koštao mnogo novca.

Since global GDP in 2020 was about 85 trillion US dollars,

Kako je globalni BDP 2020 bio oko 85 biliona američkih dolara,

we are talking about a number around 1.7 trillion US dollars.

govorimo o brojki od oko 1,7 biliona američkih dolara.

But that's still just two percent.

Međutim, to je i dalje svega dva procenta.

This means that to save the environment,

Ovo znači da za spasavanje okoline

we don't need to completely derail the economy

nije potrebno da u potpunosti izbacimo ekonomiju iz koloseka

or to abandon the achievements of modern civilization.

ili da se odreknemo dostignuća savremene civilizacije.

We just need to get our priorities right.

Samo je potrebno da jasno odredimo prioritete.

Committing two percent of annual global GDP

Izdvajanje dva procenta godišnjeg globalnog BDP-a

is far from the whole story, of course.

je daleko od potpune priče, naravno.

It won't solve all our ecological problems,

Neće rešiti sve naše ekološke probleme,

such as oceans brimming with plastic or the continued loss of biodiversity.

poput okeana krcatih plastikom ili kontinuiranog gubitka biodiverziteta.

And even to prevent catastrophic climate change

A čak i da bismo sprečili katastrofalne klimatske promene,

we'll need to make sure that the funds are invested in the right places

moraćemo da se postaramo da se sredstva ulažu na prava mesta

and that the new investments don't cause

kao i da nova ulaganja ne uzrokuju

their own negative ecological or social fallout.

sosptvene negativne ekološke i društvene posledice.

We will also need to change some of our behaviors

Takođe ćemo morati da promenimo neka od naših ponašanja

and ways of thinking

i načina razmišljanja,

from what we eat to how we travel.

od toga šta jedemo do toga kako putujemo.

None of that will be easy.

Ništa od toga neće biti lako.

But that's exactly why we have politicians.

Međutim, baš zato imamo političare.

Their job is to deal with the hard stuff.

Njihov posao je da se bave teškim stvarima.

And politicians are actually very skilled at shifting two percent of resources

A političari su zapravo veoma vešti u prebacivanju dva procenta resursa

from here to there.

ovamo i onamo.

It's what they do all the time.

Oni to stalno rade.

The difference between the policies of right wing

Razlika između politika desničarskih

and left wing parties

i levičarskih partija

often amounts to a few percentage points of GDP.

često se svodi na svega nekoliko procentnih poena BDP-a.

When faced by a major crisis,

Kada se suoče sa velikom krizom,

politicians swiftly shift far more resources to fight it.

političari brzo preusmere daleko više resursa da se izbore s njom.

For example, in 1945,

Na primer, 1945,

the US spent about 36 percent of its GDP

Amerika je potrošila oko 36 procenata svog BDP-a

on winning the Second World War.

na pobedu u Drugom svetskom ratu.

During the 2008-2009 financial crisis,

Tokom finansijske krize iz 2008-2009,

the US government spent about 3.5 percent of GDP

američka vlada je potrošila oko 3,5 procenata BDP-a

to save financial institutions that were deemed "too big to fail."

da spasi finansijske institucije koje su ocenjene kao „suviše velike da propadnu”.

Maybe humankind should also treat the Amazon rainforest

Možda bi čovečanstvo trebalo da tretira i kišne šume Amazonije

as too big to fail.

kao suviše velike da propadnu.

Let's try a thought experiment.

Isprobajmo misaoni eksperiment.

Given the current price of cleared rainforest land in South America

Uzimajući trenutnu cenu krčenja zemljišta kišnih šuma u Južnoj Americi

and the size of the Amazon rainforest,

i veličinu kišne šume u Amazoniji,

buying the [whole] of it in order to protect local forests,

njen kompletan otkup zarad zaštite lokalnih šuma,

biodiversity and human communities from destructive business interests

biodiverziteta i ljudskih zajednica od destruktivnih poslovnih interesa

would cost about 800 billion dollars,

bi koštao oko 800 milijardi dolara,

or a one-off payment of less than one percent of global GDP.

ili jednokratnu uplatu od manje od jednog procenta globalnog BDP-a.

In just the first nine months of 2020,

U samo prvih devet meseci 2020,

governments around the world announced stimulus measures

vlade širom sveta su najavile stimulativne mere

worth nearly 14 percent of global GDP

vredne skoro 14 procenata globalnog BDP-a

to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.

kako bi se nosile sa pandemijom COVID-19.

If citizens pressed them hard enough,

Ukoliko bi građani izvršili dovoljno jak pritisak,

politicians can do the same to deal with the ecological crisis.

političari bi mogli isto da urade za borbu sa ekološkom krizom.

So can investment banks and pension funds.

Isti je slučaj i sa investicionim bankama i penzionim fondovima.

Pension funds hold over 56 trillion US dollars.

Penzioni fondovi pohranjuju preko 56 biliona američkih dolara.

What's the point of having a pension if you don't have a future?

Koja je svrha penzije, ako nemate budućnost?

At present,

Trenutno,

most businesses and governments are unwilling to make

većina firmi i vlada nisu spremni da naprave

the additional two-percent investment

dodatna dva procenta ulaganja

necessary to prevent catastrophic climate change.

koja su nužna da se spreče katastrofalne klimatske promene.

Where does that money go instead?

Kuda taj novac ide umesto toga?

Well, every two years,

Pa, svake dve godine,

approximately 2.4 percent of global GDP

u proseku 2,4 procenta globalnog BDP-a

is spent on food that goes to waste.

se potroši na hranu koja se baca.

Governments also spend about 500 billion US dollars annually

Vlade takođe godišnje troše oko 500 milijardi američkih dolara

on -- wait for it --

na - pazite sad -

direct subsidies for fossil fuels.

direktne subvencije za fosilna goriva.

That means that every 3.5 years governments write a nice fat check

To znači da svakih 3,5 godina vlade ispišu fini debeli ček

for an amount equivalent to two percent of annual global GDP

na sumu ekvivalentnu dva procenta godišnjeg globalnog BDP-a

and gift it to the fossil fuel industry.

i poklone ga industriji fosilnih goriva.

And it gets worse when you factor in the social and environmental costs

A zvuči još gore kada uračunate društveni i ekološki trošak

that the fossil fuel industry causes

koji industrija fosilnih goriva uzrokuje,

but isn't asked to pay for,

ali ne mora da plati,

the value of these subsidies

vrednost ovih subvencija

actually reaches a staggering seven percent of annual global GDP.

zapravo dostiže zapanjujućih sedam procenata godišnjeg globalnog BDP-a.

Now consider tax evasion.

Sad razmotrite utaju poreza.

It's estimated that the money hidden by the wealthy in tax havens

Procenjuje se da novac koji imućni skrivaju po poreskim rajevima

is worth around 10 percent of global GDP.

vredi oko 10 procenata globalnog BDP-a.

Every year,

Svake godine,

another 1.4 trillion dollars in profits

dodatnih 1,4 biliona dolara u profitu

is stashed offshore by corporations,

korporacije skrivaju u ofšor firmama,

which is equal to 1.6 percent of global GDP.

a to je jednako 1,6 procenata globalnog BDP-a.

To prevent the apocalypse,

Kako bismo sprečili apokalipsu,

we'll probably need to impose some new taxes.

verovatno ćemo morati nametnuti neke nove poreze.

But why not start with collecting the old ones?

Međutim, zašto ne početi sa ubiranjem starih?

Such examples can be multiplied.

Slični primeri se samo množe.

But you get the picture.

Međutim, jasno vam je.

The money is there.

Novac je tu.

Of course, collecting taxes,

Naravno, ubiranje poreza,

stopping food wastage and slashing subsidies

sprečavanje bacanja hrane i sasecanje subvencija

is easier said than done,

je lakše reći nego učiniti,

especially when faced by some of the most powerful lobbies in the world.

naročito kada smo suočeni sa nekim od najmoćnijih lobija na svetu.

But it doesn't require a miracle.

Međutim, nije potrebno čudo.

It just requires determined organization.

Samo je potrebna odlučna organizacija.

So we shouldn't succumb to defeatism.

Ne bi trebalo da se predamo defetizmu.

Whenever someone says,

Kad god neko kaže:

"It's too late, the apocalypse is here,"

„Suviše je kasno, apokalipsa je već tu,”

reply, "Nah, we can stop it with just two percent."

odgovorite: „Ma kakvi, možemo je zaustaviti sa svega dva procenta.”

And when COP 27 convenes in Egypt in November 2022,

A kada 27. Konferencija strana bude zasedala u Egiptu u Novembru 2022,

we should tell the attending leaders

trebalo bi da kažemo prisutnim vođama

that it's not enough to make vague future pledges

da nije dovoljno da prave nejasne zaloge za budućnost

about 1.5 degrees Celsius.

o 1,5 stepeni celzijusa.

We want them to take out their pens

Želimo da izvade svoje olovke

and sign a check

i ispišu ček

for two percent of annual global GDP.

na dva procenta godišnjeg globalnog BDP-a.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.