Yuval Noah Harari: The Actual Cost of Preventing Climate Breakdown | TED

譯者: Lily Cheng 審譯者: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海

As the climate crisis worsens,

當環境問題一惡化

too many people are swinging from denial straight to despair.

太多人從拒絕相信事實 直接陷入恐慌

But we should not lose hope.

我們其實不應該失去信心

Humanity has enormous resources under its command,

人類掌握著龐大的資源

and by applying them wisely,

只要妥善運用

we can still prevent ecological cataclysm.

仍然可以阻止生態浩劫

Let's talk numbers.

來講數據吧

What would it cost to prevent catastrophic climate change?

要花多少錢才能阻止氣候災變？

Would we have to commit 50 percent of our total budget?

需要投入一半的總預算嗎？

Thirty percent?

還是百分之三十？

Ten percent?

百分之十?

Naturally enough, no one knows for sure.

當然，沒有人能肯定

My team and I have spent weeks poring over various reports

我的團隊花了好幾週的時間 讀遍各種報告和學術論文

and academic papers living in a cloud of numbers.

沉浸在數字海洋中

But while the models behind the numbers are dizzyingly complex,

僅管各種數字模型令人眼花撩亂

the bottom line should cheer us up.

最終結果卻令人振奮

Most experts converge on the number two percent.

大多數專家將結論定在百分之二

If humanity increases our annual investment in clean technologies

只要人類投資更多錢在綠色能源 以及相關設備

and infrastructure by around two percent of global GDP,

大約是全球 GDP 的百分之二

that should be enough to prevent catastrophic climate change.

這就足夠用來阻止氣候災變了

If you want to see how experts got to that number,

如果有人想知道專家怎麼算出的數字

you're welcome to visit the Sapienship website.

歡迎到 Sapienship 網站查詢

We can, of course, argue endlessly about the exact number,

當然，對於正確數字的爭論永無止盡

tweaking the models this way and that way.

各種模型不斷調整

But we should look at the big picture.

我們應該綜觀全貌

The crucial news is that the price tag of preventing the apocalypse

重點在於，阻止末日的成本已明碼標價

is in the low single digits of annual global GDP.

只要每年 GDP 的小小百分比

Even the more pessimistic models

就算是最悲觀的模型

generally estimate it at below five percent.

預估的數字也沒有超過百分之五

And most models say it requires investing

而大部分的模型

都說只需要把百分之二的全球 GDP 放到對的地方

only an additional two percent of global GDP in the right places.

And note the word investing.

注意「投資」這個詞

We are not talking about burning piles of banknotes

說的可不是焚燒鈔票以祭天

in some huge sacrifice to the spirits of the Earth.

好安撫地球的英靈這種事

We are talking about making investments

這裡指的是要投資新技術、新設備

in new technologies and infrastructure,

such as advanced batteries or other technologies

例如先進電池或其他技術

to store solar energy

用來儲存太陽能

and updated power grids to distribute it.

以及升級配電網

These investments will create lots of new jobs and economic opportunities

這些投資將會創造新的工作機會 與經濟潛力

and are likely to be economically profitable in the long run,

長期下來很可能使經濟成長

in part by reducing health care expenditures

能使我們減少醫療照護支出

and saving millions of people from sickness caused by air pollution.

百萬人不再受害於空氣污染造成的疾病

In addition, since oil and gas often prop up autocratic and militaristic regimes,

另外，石油和天然氣通常是專制 和軍事政權最主要的倚仗

reducing our dependence on fossil fuels

減少對石化燃料的倚賴

will be a huge boon to democracy and to peace.

對於民主與和平大大有益

All this can be translated into a concrete political plan of action.

只需要將這些化成具體的政治行動

We have learned in recent years to define our goal in terms of one number:

我們以往的目標是基於這個數字：

1.5 degrees Celsius.

攝氏 1.5 度

We can define the means to do this

為了達成目標我們要定出另一個數字：

with another number: two percent.

2%

Increased investment in clean technologies and infrastructure

增加對環保技術和設備的投資

by two percentage points of global GDP,

花費全球 GDP 的百分之二

above 2020 levels.

以 2020 年的經濟水平來算

Of course, unlike the 1.5 Celsius figure,

這或許不像攝氏 1.5 度

which is a scientifically robust threshold,

是一個通過科學鑑定的數字

the two-percent figure represents only a rough guesstimate.

2% 是一個大致上的預估

It should be understood as a ballpark figure

是一個可參考的數據

that can help to frame

用來規劃出

the kind of political project humanity requires.

人類所需的政治行動計畫

It tells us that preventing catastrophic climate change

這個數字告訴我們：想阻止氣候災變

is a totally feasible project,

是可以辦得到的

even though it would obviously cost a lot of money.

雖然要花一大筆錢

Since global GDP in 2020 was about 85 trillion US dollars,

2020 年的全球 GDP 大約是 85 兆美元

we are talking about a number around 1.7 trillion US dollars.

所以成本算出來約莫 1.7 兆美元

But that's still just two percent.

這仍只有百分之二

This means that to save the environment,

也就是說為了保護環境

we don't need to completely derail the economy

我們沒必要傷害到經濟

or to abandon the achievements of modern civilization.

也不必放棄現代文明的成果

We just need to get our priorities right.

只需要確認優先次序

Committing two percent of annual global GDP

投入百分之二的全球年度 GDP

is far from the whole story, of course.

當然離成功還差得遠

It won't solve all our ecological problems,

無法解決所有生態問題

such as oceans brimming with plastic or the continued loss of biodiversity.

比如充斥海洋的塑膠袋、 生物多樣性的惡化等等

And even to prevent catastrophic climate change

甚至連阻止氣候災變這一問題

we'll need to make sure that the funds are invested in the right places

我們也需要確保這筆錢花到正確的地方

and that the new investments don't cause

以及新的投資項目不會產生

their own negative ecological or social fallout.

更多的生態或社會問題

We will also need to change some of our behaviors

我們也必須改變一些行為

and ways of thinking

和思考模式

from what we eat to how we travel.

從飲食到旅遊習慣

None of that will be easy.

這些都不容易

But that's exactly why we have politicians.

而這就是政客們該出力的時候了

Their job is to deal with the hard stuff.

政客的工作就是處理這些麻煩事

And politicians are actually very skilled at shifting two percent of resources

他們其實挺擅長把百分之二的資源

from here to there.

從這挪到那

It's what they do all the time.

這是他們一直以來做的事

The difference between the policies of right wing

左翼和右翼政黨

and left wing parties

政策的差別

often amounts to a few percentage points of GDP.

通常就在那幾個百分點的 GDP 罷了

When faced by a major crisis,

每當面對重大危機

politicians swiftly shift far more resources to fight it.

他們總能迅速挪用大量資源來補破網

For example, in 1945,

舉個 1945 年的例子

the US spent about 36 percent of its GDP

美國花了約 36% 的 GDP

on winning the Second World War.

贏得了第二次世界大戰

During the 2008-2009 financial crisis,

而 2008~2009 年金融危機時

the US government spent about 3.5 percent of GDP

美國也花了 3.5% 的 GDP

to save financial institutions that were deemed "too big to fail."

用來救那些「大到不能倒」 的金融機構

Maybe humankind should also treat the Amazon rainforest

或許人類也該將亞馬遜雨林

as too big to fail.

視為「大到不能倒」

Let's try a thought experiment.

我們試一個想法實驗

Given the current price of cleared rainforest land in South America

根據南美洲目前已經被砍伐掉雨林 的土地價格

and the size of the Amazon rainforest,

以及亞馬遜雨林的面積

buying the [whole] of it in order to protect local forests,

買下整個雨林，保護當地森林、

biodiversity and human communities from destructive business interests

生物多樣性以及人類社群， 避免被商業行為毀滅

would cost about 800 billion dollars,

大約要花 8 千億美元

or a one-off payment of less than one percent of global GDP.

也就是一次性花掉不到百分之一的 全球 GDP

In just the first nine months of 2020,

2020 年的前九個月

governments around the world announced stimulus measures

全世界的政府都曾頒布刺激經濟的政策

worth nearly 14 percent of global GDP

花掉約等於 14% 的全球 GDP

to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.

來對抗新冠病毒疫情

If citizens pressed them hard enough,

人民如果強烈要求

politicians can do the same to deal with the ecological crisis.

政客可以為生態危機發布一樣的政策

So can investment banks and pension funds.

投資銀行和退休基金也能做出貢獻

Pension funds hold over 56 trillion US dollars.

退休基金裡的存款超過 56 兆美元

What's the point of having a pension if you don't have a future?

人類若沒有未來，存退休金有何用？

At present,

目前

most businesses and governments are unwilling to make

大部分的企業和政府都不願意

the additional two-percent investment

挪出那百分之二的資金

necessary to prevent catastrophic climate change.

投注到必須阻止的氣候災變上

Where does that money go instead?

那些錢都去哪裡了呢？

Well, every two years,

每兩年

approximately 2.4 percent of global GDP

大約 2.4% 的全球 GDP

is spent on food that goes to waste.

都花在處理浪費掉的食物

Governments also spend about 500 billion US dollars annually

政府每年還會將 5 千億美元

on -- wait for it --

你想的到嗎

direct subsidies for fossil fuels.

直接用來補助化石燃料

That means that every 3.5 years governments write a nice fat check

也就是說每三年半，政府就會寫一張 豐厚的支票

for an amount equivalent to two percent of annual global GDP

等值百分之二的全球 GDP

and gift it to the fossil fuel industry.

然後包裝送給石化燃料產業當禮物

And it gets worse when you factor in the social and environmental costs

更誇張的還有那些社會環境補助金

that the fossil fuel industry causes

是化石燃料產業造成了這些成本

but isn't asked to pay for,

卻沒有為此買單

the value of these subsidies

這些補助的金額

actually reaches a staggering seven percent of annual global GDP.

甚至達到了全球百分之七的 GDP

Now consider tax evasion.

再來想想逃漏稅

It's estimated that the money hidden by the wealthy in tax havens

那些被富豪們藏在避稅天堂的金額

is worth around 10 percent of global GDP.

估計約有百分之十的全球 GDP

Every year,

每一年

another 1.4 trillion dollars in profits

又有 1.4 兆盈利的收入

is stashed offshore by corporations,

被公司們藏到海外

which is equal to 1.6 percent of global GDP.

約等於全球 1.6% 的 GDP

To prevent the apocalypse,

為了阻止末日

we'll probably need to impose some new taxes.

我們很可能需要課徵新稅

But why not start with collecting the old ones?

但為何不從追回這些逃漏稅開始？

Such examples can be multiplied.

這些例子比比皆是

But you get the picture.

現在你了解了

The money is there.

錢一直都在那裡

Of course, collecting taxes,

當然，收稅、

stopping food wastage and slashing subsidies

停止食物浪費、削減補助等

is easier said than done,

說的容易做時難

especially when faced by some of the most powerful lobbies in the world.

尤其是面對世界上話語權最大的族群

But it doesn't require a miracle.

但我們不需要奇蹟

It just requires determined organization.

只要有下定決心的組織

So we shouldn't succumb to defeatism.

不要對失敗主義低頭

Whenever someone says,

每當有人說：

"It's too late, the apocalypse is here,"

「太晚啦，世界末日早就來了。」

reply, "Nah, we can stop it with just two percent."

就這樣回他：「不會啦， 2% 就可以救地球！」

And when COP 27 convenes in Egypt in November 2022,

當 2022 年氣候變遷會議 (COP 27) 在埃及召開

we should tell the attending leaders

告訴參與的國家代表們

that it's not enough to make vague future pledges

不能只是對攝氏 1.5 度

about 1.5 degrees Celsius.

做出對未來的模糊承諾

We want them to take out their pens

要讓他們掏出筆

and sign a check

簽下一張支票

for two percent of annual global GDP.

承諾交出百分之二的全球年度 GDP

Thank you.

謝謝