Yuval Noah Harari: The Actual Cost of Preventing Climate Breakdown | TED

翻译人员: Grace Man 校对人员: Yip Yan Yeung

As the climate crisis worsens,

随着气候危机的加剧，

too many people are swinging from denial straight to despair.

很多人的态度正在从否认滑向绝望。

But we should not lose hope.

但我们不该失去希望。

Humanity has enormous resources under its command,

人类手上有很多可供支配的资源，

and by applying them wisely,

如果资源使用得当，

we can still prevent ecological cataclysm.

我们仍可以阻止这一场生态灾难。

Let's talk numbers.

让我们来看数据。

What would it cost to prevent catastrophic climate change?

阻止灾难性的气候变化需要多少钱？

Would we have to commit 50 percent of our total budget?

我们需要付出总预算的 50%？

Thirty percent?

或者 30%？

Ten percent?

亦或 10%？

Naturally enough, no one knows for sure.

当然，没人知道确定的答案。

My team and I have spent weeks poring over various reports

我和我的团队花费了数周 仔细研究各种报告

and academic papers living in a cloud of numbers.

以及学术论文中的海量数据。

But while the models behind the numbers are dizzyingly complex,

虽然这些数据背后的模型十分复杂，

the bottom line should cheer us up.

但是预估最低值让人欣喜。

Most experts converge on the number two percent.

许多专家的结论指向 2%。

If humanity increases our annual investment in clean technologies

如果人类将用于清洁技术和 基础设施的全年投资

and infrastructure by around two percent of global GDP,

提高至全球GDP （国内生产总值）的大约 2%，

that should be enough to prevent catastrophic climate change.

这就应该足以阻止 灾难性的气候变化问题。

If you want to see how experts got to that number,

假如你想知道专家们是 如何得到这个数字的，

you're welcome to visit the Sapienship website.

欢迎访问Sapienship网站。

We can, of course, argue endlessly about the exact number,

当然，我们可以无休止地去争论 精确的数字，

tweaking the models this way and that way.

对背后的模型进行这样或那样的变形。

But we should look at the big picture.

但我们应该着眼于宏观的方面。

The crucial news is that the price tag of preventing the apocalypse

重要的点是防止 这场灾难所需花费的代价

is in the low single digits of annual global GDP.

只是全球全年GDP的仅仅一小部分。

Even the more pessimistic models

即使是那些更悲观的模型，

generally estimate it at below five percent.

通常得到的预测结果也在 5% 以下。

And most models say it requires investing

大多数模型的结果是 只需要在正确的地方

only an additional two percent of global GDP in the right places.

额外投资全球GDP的 2%。

And note the word investing.

请注意这里的用词——投资。

We are not talking about burning piles of banknotes

我们所谈论的不是为了地球之魂

in some huge sacrifice to the spirits of the Earth.

做出巨大牺牲，大把烧钱。

We are talking about making investments

我们讨论的是投资。

in new technologies and infrastructure,

投资在新的技术和基础设施上，

such as advanced batteries or other technologies

比如更先进的电池或者其他

to store solar energy

储存太阳能的技术，

and updated power grids to distribute it.

升级电网和输电的技术。

These investments will create lots of new jobs and economic opportunities

这些投资可以创造大量 新的就业岗位以及经济发展机会。

and are likely to be economically profitable in the long run,

长期来看，我们更可能因此经济受益。

in part by reducing health care expenditures

部分原因是气候问题的改善 可以减少医疗支出，

and saving millions of people from sickness caused by air pollution.

拯救因为空气污染而患病的数百万人。

In addition, since oil and gas often prop up autocratic and militaristic regimes,

另外，由于石油和燃气经常助长 专制和军国主义政权，

reducing our dependence on fossil fuels

减少我们对化石燃料的依赖

will be a huge boon to democracy and to peace.

将对民主与和平大有助益。

All this can be translated into a concrete political plan of action.

这些都可以被转化为 切实可行的政治方案。

We have learned in recent years to define our goal in terms of one number:

近些年我们用一个数字 来定义我们的目标

1.5 degrees Celsius.

1.5 摄氏度。

We can define the means to do this

为了实现这个目标， 我们所定义的方法

with another number: two percent.

着眼于另一个数字：2%。

Increased investment in clean technologies and infrastructure

将用于清洁技术和 基础设置的投资

by two percentage points of global GDP,

在 2020 年的投资额基础之上 增加全球GDP的

above 2020 levels.

2%。

Of course, unlike the 1.5 Celsius figure,

当然，不像 1.5 摄氏度

which is a scientifically robust threshold,

是一个科学意义上的 稳健阈值，

the two-percent figure represents only a rough guesstimate.

2% 这个数字代表的 只是一个粗略估计。

It should be understood as a ballpark figure

2% 应该被理解为一个

that can help to frame

有助于构架人类所需的

the kind of political project humanity requires.

政治方案的估计数据。

It tells us that preventing catastrophic climate change

它所传递的信息是 阻止这场灾难性的气候变化

is a totally feasible project,

是切实可行的，

even though it would obviously cost a lot of money.

即使很显然需要为此投入很多钱。

Since global GDP in 2020 was about 85 trillion US dollars,

2020 年全球GDP大约为 85 万亿美金，

we are talking about a number around 1.7 trillion US dollars.

所以我们谈论的是 大约 1 万 7 千亿美金。

But that's still just two percent.

但它仍然只是 2%。

This means that to save the environment,

这意味着想要拯救环境，

we don't need to completely derail the economy

我们不需要搅乱经济

or to abandon the achievements of modern civilization.

或者抛弃现代文明的成就。

We just need to get our priorities right.

我们只需要明确优先次序。

Committing two percent of annual global GDP

当然，投入全球全年GDP的 2%

is far from the whole story, of course.

远远不是故事的全部。

It won't solve all our ecological problems,

它不能解决所有的生态问题，

such as oceans brimming with plastic or the continued loss of biodiversity.

比如海洋塑料问题或者 生物多样性持续丧失问题。

And even to prevent catastrophic climate change

就算想要阻止灾难性的气候变化，

we'll need to make sure that the funds are invested in the right places

我们也得保证这笔钱 被投资到了正确的地方，

and that the new investments don't cause

并且得保证这些 新的投资没有因其自身

their own negative ecological or social fallout.

而造成负面的生态或社会后果。

We will also need to change some of our behaviors

我们也需要改变 我们的一些行为习惯

and ways of thinking

和思考方式，

from what we eat to how we travel.

从我们的饮食到旅游出行。

None of that will be easy.

没有一项会是容易的。

But that's exactly why we have politicians.

但这也就是我们 有政治家的原因。

Their job is to deal with the hard stuff.

他们的工作就是去解决这些困难。

And politicians are actually very skilled at shifting two percent of resources

政治家们事实上也非常擅长 将 2% 的资源

from here to there.

从一个地方调整到另一个地方。

It's what they do all the time.

这是他们一直在做的事情。

The difference between the policies of right wing

右翼政党与左翼政党

and left wing parties

政策上的不同

often amounts to a few percentage points of GDP.

通常也会影响GDP的几个百分点。

When faced by a major crisis,

当政治家们面对重大危机时，

politicians swiftly shift far more resources to fight it.

他们可以迅速调动 远远更多的资源进行应对。

For example, in 1945,

例如，在 1945 年，

the US spent about 36 percent of its GDP

美国花费了其GDP的 36%

on winning the Second World War.

为了打赢二战。

During the 2008-2009 financial crisis,

在 2008-2009 年的金融危机中，

the US government spent about 3.5 percent of GDP

美国政府花费了 大约其GDP的 3.5%

to save financial institutions that were deemed "too big to fail."

来拯救那些被认为 “太大而不能倒”的金融机构。

Maybe humankind should also treat the Amazon rainforest

或许人类也应该将亚马逊热带雨林

as too big to fail.

视为太大而不能倒。

Let's try a thought experiment.

让我们来尝试一次思想实验，

Given the current price of cleared rainforest land in South America

已知南美洲被砍伐雨林的现价

and the size of the Amazon rainforest,

和亚马逊热带雨林的面积，

buying the [whole] of it in order to protect local forests,

为了保护当地森林和物种多样性， 使人类社区免受破坏性商业砍伐影响，

biodiversity and human communities from destructive business interests

而把亚马逊热带雨林全部买下来，

would cost about 800 billion dollars,

大约要花费 8 千亿美金，

or a one-off payment of less than one percent of global GDP.

或者说是一次性支付 全球GDP的不到 1%。

In just the first nine months of 2020,

仅是在 2020 年的前 9 个月，

governments around the world announced stimulus measures

全球政府为了应对新冠疫情而

worth nearly 14 percent of global GDP

宣布的刺激经济计划价值大约

to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic.

全球GDP的 14%。

If citizens pressed them hard enough,

如果民众给政治家们施加足够压力，

politicians can do the same to deal with the ecological crisis.

政治家们也可以为了应对生态危机 做相同的事情。

So can investment banks and pension funds.

投资银行和养老基金也可以这么做。

Pension funds hold over 56 trillion US dollars.

养老基金持有 超过 56 万亿美元。

What's the point of having a pension if you don't have a future?

如何人们连未来都没有的话， 那养老基金的意义是什么呢？

At present,

现在，

most businesses and governments are unwilling to make

大多数企业与政府不愿意

the additional two-percent investment

为阻止灾难性的气候变化

necessary to prevent catastrophic climate change.

进行这额外 2% 的必要投资。

Where does that money go instead?

那钱都去哪里了呢？

Well, every two years,

好吧，每两年，

approximately 2.4 percent of global GDP

全球GDP的大约 2.4%

is spent on food that goes to waste.

会被花费在了一些 最终被浪费了的食物上。

Governments also spend about 500 billion US dollars annually

政府每年会花费 差不多 5 千亿美金

on -- wait for it --

在——等一下——

direct subsidies for fossil fuels.

在化石燃料的直接补贴上。

That means that every 3.5 years governments write a nice fat check

这意味着每三年半，政府就会签一张

for an amount equivalent to two percent of annual global GDP

价值约为全年全球GDP 2% 的 丰厚大支票

and gift it to the fossil fuel industry.

作为礼物送给化石燃料行业。

And it gets worse when you factor in the social and environmental costs

如果考虑化石燃料行业所 在造成的社会和环境成本，

that the fossil fuel industry causes

实际情况是更糟糕的。

but isn't asked to pay for,

但是化石燃料行业 并未被要求为此买单。

the value of these subsidies

这些补贴的价值

actually reaches a staggering seven percent of annual global GDP.

实际上达到了惊人的 全年全球GDP的 7%。

Now consider tax evasion.

现在来谈谈逃税，

It's estimated that the money hidden by the wealthy in tax havens

据估计，富人们在 避税天堂所隐藏的资产

is worth around 10 percent of global GDP.

价值约为全球GDP的 10%。

Every year,

每一年，

another 1.4 trillion dollars in profits

会有另外 1.4 万亿美元的利润，

is stashed offshore by corporations,

被各种公司藏匿在海外，

which is equal to 1.6 percent of global GDP.

等价于全球GDP的 1.6%。

To prevent the apocalypse,

为了阻止灾难，

we'll probably need to impose some new taxes.

我们有可能需要征收一些新的税。

But why not start with collecting the old ones?

但为什么不先开始去征收 这些以前的税呢？

Such examples can be multiplied.

这样的例子不胜枚举。

But you get the picture.

但你已经明白了，

The money is there.

钱已经在那里了。

Of course, collecting taxes,

当然，对于征税，

stopping food wastage and slashing subsidies

阻止食物浪费和削减补贴，

is easier said than done,

说起来比做起来更容易，

especially when faced by some of the most powerful lobbies in the world.

尤其是在面对一些这世界上 最强大的游说团体的时候。

But it doesn't require a miracle.

但所需要的并不是奇迹。

It just requires determined organization.

所需要的只是决心坚定的组织。

So we shouldn't succumb to defeatism.

所以我们不应该屈服于失败主义。

Whenever someone says,

当有人说到：

"It's too late, the apocalypse is here,"

“已经太晚了，大灾难已经到来了”，

reply, "Nah, we can stop it with just two percent."

回复他们：“不，只需要 2%， 我们就可以阻止灾难。”

And when COP 27 convenes in Egypt in November 2022,

联合国气候变化大会第 27 次缔约方会议 于 2022 年 11 月在埃及召开时，

we should tell the attending leaders

我们应该告诉与会领导，

that it's not enough to make vague future pledges

针对 1.5 摄氏度的目标给出

about 1.5 degrees Celsius.

模糊的未来承诺是不够的。

We want them to take out their pens

我们想要他们拿出他们的笔，

and sign a check

签上这张

for two percent of annual global GDP.

价值为全年全球GDP 2% 的支票。

Thank you.

谢谢。