Ray Kurzweil: Get ready for hybrid thinking

Prevodilac: Miloš Milosavljević Lektor: Mile Živković

Let me tell you a story.

Da vam ispričam jednu priču.

It goes back 200 million years.

Ona nas vraća 200 miliona godina unazad.

It's a story of the neocortex,

To je priča o neokorteksu,

which means "new rind."

što znači "nova kora".

So in these early mammals,

Kod ranih sisara,

because only mammals have a neocortex,

jer jedino sisari imaju neokorteks,

rodent-like creatures.

stvorenja nalik glodarima,

It was the size of a postage stamp and just as thin,

bio je veličine poštanske markice i isto tako tanak.

and was a thin covering around

Bio je tanki omotač

their walnut-sized brain,

oko njihovog mozga veličine oraha,

but it was capable of a new type of thinking.

ali je bio sposoban za novu vrstu razmišljanja.

Za razliku od utvrđenih ponašanja

Rather than the fixed behaviors

that non-mammalian animals have,

koje imaju ne-sisari,

it could invent new behaviors.

on je mogao da smisli nova ponašanja.

So a mouse is escaping a predator,

Na primer, miš beži od mesoždera,

its path is blocked,

put mu je blokiran,

it'll try to invent a new solution.

pokušaće da smisli novo rešenje.

That may work, it may not,

To može da uspe ili ne,

but if it does, it will remember that

ali ako uspe, on će to zapamtiti

and have a new behavior,

i imaće novo ponašanje

i to može da se proširi kao virus

and that can actually spread virally

through the rest of the community.

na ostatak zajednice.

Another mouse watching this could say,

Drugi miš koji to gleda može da kaže:

"Hey, that was pretty clever, going around that rock,"

"Bilo je pametno to što je zaobišao taj kamen",

and it could adopt a new behavior as well.

i takođe usvoji novo ponašanje.

Non-mammalian animals

Životinje koje nisu sisari

couldn't do any of those things.

ne mogu ništa od toga.

One imaju utvrđena ponašanja.

They had fixed behaviors.

Now they could learn a new behavior

Mogu da nauče novo ponašanje,

but not in the course of one lifetime.

ali ne u toku jednog života.

In the course of maybe a thousand lifetimes,

U toku možda hiljadu života

it could evolve a new fixed behavior.

mogu da razviju novo utvrđeno ponašanje.

That was perfectly okay 200 million years ago.

To je bilo potpuno u redu pre 200 miliona godina.

The environment changed very slowly.

Okruženje se menjalo veoma sporo.

It could take 10,000 years for there to be

Moglo je da prođe 10.000 godina

a significant environmental change,

dok se ne desi značajna promena okruženja,

and during that period of time

i u toku tog perioda

it would evolve a new behavior.

razvili bi novo ponašanje.

Now that went along fine,

To je prošlo dobro,

but then something happened.

ali onda se nešto desilo.

Sixty-five million years ago,

Pre 65 miliona godina,

there was a sudden, violent change to the environment.

desila se iznenadna, žestoka promena okruženja.

We call it the Cretaceous extinction event.

Nazivamo je K-T izumiranje.

That's when the dinosaurs went extinct,

Tada su izumrli dinosaurusi,

that's when 75 percent of the

izumrlo je 75 posto

animal and plant species went extinct,

životinjskih i biljnih vrsta

and that's when mammals

i sisari su zauzeli

overtook their ecological niche,

svoje ekološko stanište.

and to anthropomorphize, biological evolution said,

I da antropomorfizujemo, biološka evolucija kaže:

"Hmm, this neocortex is pretty good stuff,"

"Hm. Taj neokorteks je dobra stvar",

and it began to grow it.

i počinje da ga razvija.

And mammals got bigger,

Sisari su postali veći,

their brains got bigger at an even faster pace,

njihov mozak je postao veći još bržim tempom,

and the neocortex got bigger even faster than that

i neokorteks se povećao još brže

and developed these distinctive ridges and folds

i razvio ove prepoznatljive brazde i prevoje,

basically to increase its surface area.

uglavnom da bi povećao svoju površinu.

If you took the human neocortex

Kad biste uzeli ljudski neokorteks

and stretched it out,

i rastegli ga,

it's about the size of a table napkin,

bio bi veličine stone salvete,

and it's still a thin structure.

i dalje tanke strukture.

It's about the thickness of a table napkin.

Otprilike je debljine salvete.

But it has so many convolutions and ridges

Ali ima toliko mnogo vijuga i brazdi

it's now 80 percent of our brain,

da sada predstavlja 80% našeg mozga,

and that's where we do our thinking,

i tu obavljamo razmišljanje,

and it's the great sublimator.

i veliki je sublimator.

Još uvek imamo onaj stari mozak

We still have that old brain

that provides our basic drives and motivations,

koji obezbeđuje osnovne nagone i motivacije,

but I may have a drive for conquest,

ali ja mogu imati nagon za osvajanjem

and that'll be sublimated by the neocortex

i to će neokorteks sublimirati

into writing a poem or inventing an app

u pisanje pesme ili programiranje aplikacije

or giving a TED Talk,

ili držanje TED govora,

and it's really the neocortex that's where

i u stvari, neokorteks je mesto

gde se obavlja radnja.

the action is.

Fifty years ago, I wrote a paper

Pre 50 godina, napisao sam rad

describing how I thought the brain worked,

o tome kako sam mislio da mozak radi

and I described it as a series of modules.

i opisao sam ga kao niz modula.

Each module could do things with a pattern.

Svaki modul može da radi stvari pomoću obrasca.

It could learn a pattern. It could remember a pattern.

Može da nauči obrazac, da ga zapamti

It could implement a pattern.

i primeni.

And these modules were organized in hierarchies,

Ti moduli su organizovani u hijerarhije

and we created that hierarchy with our own thinking.

i mi kreiramo tu hijerarhiju svojim razmišljanjem.

And there was actually very little to go on

Nije moglo mnogo toga da se uradi

50 years ago.

pre 50 godina.

It led me to meet President Johnson.

To me je odvelo do predsednika Džonsona.

I've been thinking about this for 50 years,

Razmišljao sam o tome 50 godina

and a year and a half ago I came out with the book

i pre godinu i po dana, izdao sam knjigu

"How To Create A Mind,"

"Kako kreirati um",

which has the same thesis,

koja je imala istu tezu,

but now there's a plethora of evidence.

ali je sada bilo pregršt dokaza.

The amount of data we're getting about the brain

Količina podataka koje dobijamo o mozgu

from neuroscience is doubling every year.

od neuronauke udvostručuje se svake godine.

Spatial resolution of brainscanning of all types

Sve vrste prostorne rezolucije skeniranog mozga

is doubling every year.

udvostručuju se svake godine.

We can now see inside a living brain

Sada možemo videti

and see individual interneural connections

unutrašnjost živog mozga

i pojedinačne međuneuronske veze

connecting in real time, firing in real time.

kako se povezuju u realnom vremenu.

We can see your brain create your thoughts.

Možemo videti vaš mozak

kako stvara vaše misli.

We can see your thoughts create your brain,

Možemo videti kako vaše misli

stvaraju vaš mozak,

which is really key to how it works.

što je ključ toga kako on funkcioniše.

So let me describe briefly how it works.

Da objasnim kratko kako funkcioniše.

I've actually counted these modules.

U stvari sam izbrojao ove module.

We have about 300 million of them,

Imamo ih oko 300 miliona

and we create them in these hierarchies.

i stvaramo ih u ovim hijerarhijama.

I'll give you a simple example.

Daću vam prost primer.

I've got a bunch of modules

Imam gomilu modula

that can recognize the crossbar to a capital A,

koji mogu da prepoznaju

poprečnu crtu na velikom A,

and that's all they care about.

i to je sve što ih zanima.

A beautiful song can play,

Može da svira lepa pesma,

a pretty girl could walk by,

da prođe lepa devojka,

they don't care, but they see a crossbar to a capital A,

njih je baš briga,

ali kad vide poprečnu crtu na A,

they get very excited and they say "crossbar,"

uzbude se i kažu: "Crta",

and they put out a high probability

i objavljuju visoku verovatnoću

on their output axon.

na svom izlaznom aksonu.

That goes to the next level,

To se uzdiže na sledeći nivo,

and these layers are organized in conceptual levels.

i ovi slojevi se organizuju u pojmovne nivoe.

Each is more abstract than the next one,

Svaki je apstraktniji od sledećeg,

so the next one might say "capital A."

tako da sledeći može da kaže: "Veliko A".

That goes up to a higher level that might say "Apple."

To ide na sledeći nivo,

koji može da kaže: "Jabuka"

Information flows down also.

Informacija takođe teče nadole.

If the apple recognizer has seen A-P-P-L,

Ako je prepoznavač jabuke

video J-A-B-U-K,

it'll think to itself, "Hmm, I think an E is probably likely,"

pomisliće:

"Hm, mislim da je A verovatno",

and it'll send a signal down to all the E recognizers

i poslaće signal dole

saying, "Be on the lookout for an E,

do prepoznavača slova A,

i reći će: "Pazite na A,

I think one might be coming."

mislim da će možda biti jedno".

The E recognizers will lower their threshold

Prepoznavači slova A

će sniziti kriterijum i videti

and they see some sloppy thing, could be an E.

neku brljotinu koja bi mogla da bude A.

Ordinarily you wouldn't think so,

Obično ne biste to pomislili,

but we're expecting an E, it's good enough,

ali očekujemo A, dovoljno je slično

and yeah, I've seen an E, and then apple says,

i da, video sam A

i onda jabuka kaže:

"Yeah, I've seen an Apple."

"Da, video sam Jabuku".

Go up another five levels,

Idite nagore još pet nivoa

and you're now at a pretty high level

i sada ste na prilično visokom nivou

of this hierarchy,

ove hijerarhije,

and stretch down into the different senses,

i raširite nadole u različitim smerovima

and you may have a module that sees a certain fabric,

i možda ćete imati modul koji vidi određenu tkaninu,

hears a certain voice quality, smells a certain perfume,

čuje određenu zvučnu osobinu

oseća određeni parfem i reći će:

and will say, "My wife has entered the room."

"Moja žena je upravo ušla u sobu".

Go up another 10 levels, and now you're at

Idite nagore još 10 nivoa i sada ste na vrlo visokom nivou.

a very high level.

You're probably in the frontal cortex,

Verovatno ste u frontalnom korteksu,

and you'll have modules that say, "That was ironic.

i imaćete module koji kažu:

"To je bilo ironično.

That's funny. She's pretty."

To je smešno. Ona je lepa."

You might think that those are more sophisticated,

Možda ćete pomisliti da su ovi sofisticiraniji,

but actually what's more complicated

ali u stvari su komplikovaniji

is the hierarchy beneath them.

od hijerarhije ispod njih.

There was a 16-year-old girl, she had brain surgery,

Jedna 16-godišnja devojčica

je imala operaciju na mozgu,

and she was conscious because the surgeons

i bila je svesna jer su hirurzi

wanted to talk to her.

želeli da razgovaraju s njom.

You can do that because there's no pain receptors

To može da se uradi jer nema

in the brain.

receptora za bol u mozgu.

And whenever they stimulated particular,

Kad god bi stimulisali određene

very small points on her neocortex,

vrlo male tačke u njenom neokorteksu

shown here in red, she would laugh.

koje su prikazane crvenom bojom,

ona bi se smejala.

So at first they thought they were triggering

Prvo su pomislili da pokreću

some kind of laugh reflex,

neku vrstu refleksa za smeh,

but no, they quickly realized they had found

ali ne, ubrzo su shvatili da su pronašli

the points in her neocortex that detect humor,

tačke u njenom neokorteksu

koje detektuju humor,

and she just found everything hilarious

i njoj je prosto sve bilo smešno

whenever they stimulated these points.

kad god su stimulisali ove tačke.

"You guys are so funny just standing around,"

"Tako ste smešni kako stojite okolo",

was the typical comment,

bio je uobičajen komentar,

and they weren't funny,

a oni nisu bili smešni,

not while doing surgery.

ne dok su operisali.

So how are we doing today?

Kako nam ide danas?

Well, computers are actually beginning to master

Kompjuteri počinju da ovladavaju

human language with techniques

ljudskim jezikom pomoću tehnika

that are similar to the neocortex.

koje su slične neokorteksu.

I actually described the algorithm,

Opisao sam algoritam

which is similar to something called

sličan nečemu što se zove

a hierarchical hidden Markov model,

hijerarhijski skriveni Markovljev model,

something I've worked on since the '90s.

nečemu na čemu sam radio od '90-ih.

"Jeopardy" is a very broad natural language game,

"Jeopardy" je veoma raširena prirodna jezička igra,

and Watson got a higher score

i Votson je postigao veći skor

than the best two players combined.

nego najbolja dva igrača zajedno.

It got this query correct:

Pogodio je pitanje za ovaj odgovor:

"A long, tiresome speech

"Dugačak, dosadan govor

delivered by a frothy pie topping,"

penastog kolača od belanaca",

and it quickly responded, "What is a meringue harangue?"

i brzo je odgovorio:

"Šta je brbljanje puslice?"

And Jennings and the other guy didn't get that.

Dženings i drugi igrač nisu to pogodili.

It's a pretty sophisticated example of

To je prilično sofisticiran primer

computers actually understanding human language,

kako kompjuteri u stvari

razumeju ljudski jezik,

and it actually got its knowledge by reading

i on je u stvari

Wikipedia and several other encyclopedias.

stekao znanje čitajući Vikipediju i nekoliko drugih enciklopedija.

Five to 10 years from now,

Pet do deset godina od sada

search engines will actually be based on

pretraživači će biti zasnovani

not just looking for combinations of words and links

ne samo na traženju kombinacija reči i linkova

but actually understanding,

već na razumevanju,

reading for understanding the billions of pages

čitanju da bi razumeli

milijarde stranica

on the web and in books.

na internetu i u knjigama.

So you'll be walking along, and Google will pop up

Tako da, dok hodate, iskočiće vam Gugl

and say, "You know, Mary, you expressed concern

i reći: "Znaš Meri, pre mesec dana rekla si mi da si zabrinuta

to me a month ago that your glutathione supplement

zbog toga što tvoj glutationski dodatak

wasn't getting past the blood-brain barrier.

nije prošao kroz krvno-moždanu barijeru.

Well, new research just came out 13 seconds ago

Pre 13 sekundi se pojavilo

novo istraživanje

that shows a whole new approach to that

koje ima potpuno novi pristup tome

and a new way to take glutathione.

i novi način za uzimanje glutationa.

Let me summarize it for you."

Da ti sumiram to."

Twenty years from now, we'll have nanobots,

Za dvadeset godina,

imaćemo nano-robote

because another exponential trend

jer još jedan rastući trend je

is the shrinking of technology.

minijaturizacija tehnologije.

They'll go into our brain

Oni će ulaziti u naš mozak

through the capillaries

kroz kapilare

and basically connect our neocortex

i u osnovi povezivati naš neokorteks

to a synthetic neocortex in the cloud

sa sintetičkim neokorteksom u "oblaku",

providing an extension of our neocortex.

obezbeđujući time produžetak

našeg neokorteksa.

Danas,

Now today, I mean,

you have a computer in your phone,

imate kompjuter u vašem telefonu,

but if you need 10,000 computers for a few seconds

ali ako vam zatreba 10.000 kompjutera

za nekoliko sekundi

to do a complex search,

da biste uradili složenu pretragu,

you can access that for a second or two in the cloud.

možete pristupiti tome za 1-2 sekunde u "oblaku".

In the 2030s, if you need some extra neocortex,

U 2030-im, ako vam zatreba dodatni neokorteks,

you'll be able to connect to that in the cloud

moći ćete da se povežete sa njim u "oblaku"

directly from your brain.

direktno iz vašeg mozga.

So I'm walking along and I say,

Na primer, šetam se i kažem:

"Oh, there's Chris Anderson.

"Eno ga Kris Anderson.

He's coming my way.

Ide prema meni.

I'd better think of something clever to say.

Bolje da smislim nešto pametno što ću da kažem.

I've got three seconds.

Imam tri sekunde.

My 300 million modules in my neocortex

Mojih 300 miliona modula u neokorteksu

isn't going to cut it.

neće to uspeti.

I need a billion more."

Treba mi još milijardu."

I'll be able to access that in the cloud.

Moći ću da pristupim tome u "oblaku".

And our thinking, then, will be a hybrid

I onda će naše razmišljanje biti hibrid

of biological and non-biological thinking,

biološkog i nebiološkog razmišljanja,

but the non-biological portion

a nebiološki deo

is subject to my law of accelerating returns.

je podložan mom Zakonu o ponovnim ubrzanjima.

It will grow exponentially.

Povećavaće se eksponencijalno.

And remember what happens

Sećate se šta se desilo

the last time we expanded our neocortex?

poslednji put kad smo proširili naš neokorteks?

That was two million years ago

To je bilo pre dva miliona godina,

when we became humanoids

kad smo postali humanoidi

and developed these large foreheads.

i razvili ova visoka čela.

Other primates have a slanted brow.

Ostali primati imaju koso čelo.

They don't have the frontal cortex.

Oni nemaju frontalni korteks.

But the frontal cortex is not really qualitatively different.

Ali frontalni korteks nije kvalitativno drugačiji.

It's a quantitative expansion of neocortex,

On je kvantitativni produžetak neokorteksa,

but that additional quantity of thinking

ali ta dodatna količina razmišljanja

was the enabling factor for us to take

omogućila nam je da načinimo

a qualitative leap and invent language

kvalitativni skok i izmislimo jezik,

and art and science and technology

i umetnost, i nauku, i tehnologiju,

and TED conferences.

i TED konferencije.

No other species has done that.

Nijedna druga vrsta nije to uradila.

And so, over the next few decades,

I tokom sledećih nekoliko decenija,

we're going to do it again.

uradićemo to ponovo.

We're going to again expand our neocortex,

Proširićemo ponovo svoj neokorteks,

only this time we won't be limited

samo ovog puta nećemo biti ograničeni

by a fixed architecture of enclosure.

utvrđenom arhitekturom zatvaranja.

It'll be expanded without limit.

Proširivaće se bez ograničenja.

That additional quantity will again

Taj dodatni kvantitet će ponovo biti

be the enabling factor for another qualitative leap

faktor koji će omogućiti još jedan kvalitativni skok

in culture and technology.

u kulturi i tehnologiji.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam mnogo.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)