Ray Kurzweil: Get ready for hybrid thinking

Prevoditelj: Marina Maras Recezent: Ivan Stamenković

Let me tell you a story.

Htio bih vam ispričati priču.

It goes back 200 million years.

Ona počinje prije 200 milijuna godina

It's a story of the neocortex,

To je priča o neokorteksu

which means "new rind."

što znači "nova kora".

So in these early mammals,

Kod prvih sisavaca,

because only mammals have a neocortex,

jer samo sisavci imaju neokorteks,

rodent-like creatures.

bića sličnih glodavcima.

It was the size of a postage stamp and just as thin,

Neokorteks je bio veličine poštanske marke te jednako tanak,

and was a thin covering around

bio je to tanki sloj koji je bio omotan

their walnut-sized brain,

oko njihova mozga veličine oraha

but it was capable of a new type of thinking.

ali bio je sposoban za novu vrstu razmišljanja.

Rather than the fixed behaviors

Za razliku od utvrđenih ponašanja,

that non-mammalian animals have,

tipičnih za ne-sisavce,

it could invent new behaviors.

neokorteks je mogao smisliti nove oblike ponašanja.

So a mouse is escaping a predator,

Tako da miš koji bježi svom predatoru

its path is blocked,

a put mu je blokiran

it'll try to invent a new solution.

pokušat će smisliti novo rješenje.

That may work, it may not,

Koje može biti uspješno ili ne

but if it does, it will remember that

ali ako bude uspješno, miš će to zapamtiti

and have a new behavior,

i stvoriti novo ponašanje

and that can actually spread virally

koje se može viralno proširiti

through the rest of the community.

ostatkom zajednice.

Another mouse watching this could say,

Drugi miš gledajući ovo bi mogao reći:

"Hey, that was pretty clever, going around that rock,"

"Hej, to je bilo baš pametno, tako zaobići kamen,"

and it could adopt a new behavior as well.

i mogao bi također usvojiti to ponašanje.

Non-mammalian animals

Ne-sisavci

couldn't do any of those things.

nisu bili sposobni za nešto takvo.

They had fixed behaviors.

Oni su imali utvrđene oblike ponašanja.

Now they could learn a new behavior

Mogli su naučiti novo ponašanje

but not in the course of one lifetime.

ali ne u toku jednog životnog vijeka.

In the course of maybe a thousand lifetimes,

Možda u toku od tisuću života

it could evolve a new fixed behavior.

su mogli razviti novo utvrđeno ponašanje.

That was perfectly okay 200 million years ago.

To je bilo sasvim u redu prije 200 milijuna godina.

The environment changed very slowly.

Okoliš se mijenjao vrlo sporo.

It could take 10,000 years for there to be

Moglo je proći i 10 000 godina da bi se dogodila

a significant environmental change,

značajnija promjena okoliša,

and during that period of time

a tijekom tog razdoblja

it would evolve a new behavior.

mogli su razviti novo ponašanje.

Now that went along fine,

Sve je išlo svojim tijekom

but then something happened.

ali onda se nešto dogodilo.

Sixty-five million years ago,

Prije 65 milijuna godina

there was a sudden, violent change to the environment.

iznenada se dogodila silovita promjena okoliša.

We call it the Cretaceous extinction event.

A zovemo je događaj Kreda-Tercijar izumiranja.

That's when the dinosaurs went extinct,

Tada su izumrli dinosauri,

that's when 75 percent of the

tada je 75 posto

animal and plant species went extinct,

životinjskih i biljnih vrsta izumrlo

and that's when mammals

i tada su sisavci

overtook their ecological niche,

zauzeli svoju ekološku nišu

and to anthropomorphize, biological evolution said,

i da antropomorfiziramo, biološka evolucija je rekla:

"Hmm, this neocortex is pretty good stuff,"

"Hm, ovaj neokorteks je odlična stvar",

and it began to grow it.

i počela ga je razvijati.

And mammals got bigger,

I sisavci su postajali sve veći

their brains got bigger at an even faster pace,

i njihovi mozgovi su postajali veći još većom brzinom

and the neocortex got bigger even faster than that

a neokorteks je postajao veći još brže od toga

and developed these distinctive ridges and folds

i razvio je prepoznatljive brazde i prijevoje

basically to increase its surface area.

kako bi povećao svoju površinu.

If you took the human neocortex

Kad biste uzeli ljudski neokorteks

and stretched it out,

i potpuno ga rastegli,

it's about the size of a table napkin,

bio bi veličine kuhinjske salvete

and it's still a thin structure.

a još uvijek bi bio tanke strukture.

It's about the thickness of a table napkin.

Otprilike je debljine kuhinjske salvete.

But it has so many convolutions and ridges

Ali ima toliko vijuga i brazdi

it's now 80 percent of our brain,

da sačinjava 80 posto našeg mozga,

and that's where we do our thinking,

tu se odvijaju naši procesi razmišljanja

and it's the great sublimator.

i zadužen je za proces sublimiranja.

We still have that old brain

Još uvijek imamo onaj stari mozak

that provides our basic drives and motivations,

koji određuje naše osnovne nagone i motivacije

but I may have a drive for conquest,

ali ja mogu imati nagon za osvajanjem

and that'll be sublimated by the neocortex

a to će neokorteks sublimirati

into writing a poem or inventing an app

u proces pisanja pjesme ili smišljanja aplikacije

or giving a TED Talk,

ili držanja govora na TED konferenciji

and it's really the neocortex that's where

i zapravo se u neokorteksu

the action is.

događa sva akcija.

Fifty years ago, I wrote a paper

Prije 50 godina sam napisao rad

describing how I thought the brain worked,

u kojem sam opisao kako sam mislio da mozak radi

and I described it as a series of modules.

i opisao sam ga kao niz modula.

Each module could do things with a pattern.

Svaki modul je mogao nešto obavljati ali slijedeći uzorak.

It could learn a pattern. It could remember a pattern.

Mogao je naučiti uzorak, mogao je zapamtiti uzorak.

It could implement a pattern.

Mogao je primijeniti uzorak.

And these modules were organized in hierarchies,

I ovi moduli su organizirani u hijerarhije,

and we created that hierarchy with our own thinking.

a mi stvaramo te hijerarhije svojim razmišljanjem.

And there was actually very little to go on

Bilo je vrlo malo informacija s kojim ste mogli raditi

50 years ago.

prije 50 godina.

It led me to meet President Johnson.

To me je dovelo do predsjednika Johnsona.

I've been thinking about this for 50 years,

Razmišljao sam o ovome 50 godina

and a year and a half ago I came out with the book

i prije godinu i pol izdao sam knjigu

"How To Create A Mind,"

"Kako stvoriti um",

which has the same thesis,

koja ima istu postavku

but now there's a plethora of evidence.

ali danas postoji mnoštvo dokaza.

The amount of data we're getting about the brain

Količina podataka koju dobivamo o mozgu

from neuroscience is doubling every year.

od neuroznanosti udvostručava se svake godine.

Spatial resolution of brainscanning of all types

Prostorna rezolucija skeniranja mozga svih vrsta

is doubling every year.

se udvostručava svake godine.

We can now see inside a living brain

Danas možemo vidjeti unutrašnjost živog mozga

and see individual interneural connections

i vidjeti pojedinačne među-neuronske veze

connecting in real time, firing in real time.

kako se povezuju u realnom vremenu, kako ispaljuju impulse u relnom vremenu.

We can see your brain create your thoughts.

Možemo vidjeti kako vaš mozak kreira misli.

We can see your thoughts create your brain,

Možemo vidjeti kako vaše misli oblikuju vaš mozak,

which is really key to how it works.

što je najbitnije u načinu kako radi.

So let me describe briefly how it works.

Dopustite mi da vam ukratko objasnim kako mozak radi.

I've actually counted these modules.

Zapravo, ja sam izbrojio ove module.

We have about 300 million of them,

Postoji negdje oko 300 milijuna modula

and we create them in these hierarchies.

i oblikujemo ih u hijerarhije.

I'll give you a simple example.

Dat ću vam jednostavan primjer.

I've got a bunch of modules

Imam gomilu modula

that can recognize the crossbar to a capital A,

koji mogu prepoznati poprečnu crticu velikog slova A

and that's all they care about.

i to je sve što ih zanima.

A beautiful song can play,

Može svirati prelijepa pjesma,

a pretty girl could walk by,

može proći prelijepa djevojka

they don't care, but they see a crossbar to a capital A,

oni neće mariti za to, ali kad vide poprečnu crticu velikog slova A,

they get very excited and they say "crossbar,"

uzbude se i kažu "poprečna crtica",

and they put out a high probability

i odašilju signal velike vjerojatnosti

on their output axon.

na izlaznom aksonu.

That goes to the next level,

Tada to prelazi na višu razinu,

and these layers are organized in conceptual levels.

ovi slojevi su organizirani u konceptualne razine.

Each is more abstract than the next one,

Svaka sljedeća je apstraktnija od prethodne

so the next one might say "capital A."

pa bi sljedeća mogla reći "veliko slovo A".

That goes up to a higher level that might say "Apple."

To ide na višu razinu koja bi mogla reći "Auto".

Information flows down also.

Informacija također ide prema dolje.

If the apple recognizer has seen A-P-P-L,

Ako je identifikator auta vidio A-U-T-,

it'll think to itself, "Hmm, I think an E is probably likely,"

pomislit će: " Hm, mislim da je jedno O vrlo vjerojatno",

and it'll send a signal down to all the E recognizers

i poslat će signal svim O identifikatorima

saying, "Be on the lookout for an E,

govoreći: "Pazite na slovo O,

I think one might be coming."

mislim da bi se jedno moglo pojaviti."

The E recognizers will lower their threshold

'O' identifikatori će sniziti svoj prag

and they see some sloppy thing, could be an E.

i ako vide neku brljotinu, mogla bi biti O.

Ordinarily you wouldn't think so,

Obično to ne biste pomislili,

but we're expecting an E, it's good enough,

ali sad kad očekujemo 'O', dovoljno je dobra,

and yeah, I've seen an E, and then apple says,

i da, vidio sam 'O', i tada auto kaže:

"Yeah, I've seen an Apple."

"Da, vidio sam Auto".

Go up another five levels,

Popnite se pet razina

and you're now at a pretty high level

i sada ste na vrlo viskoj razini

of this hierarchy,

ove hijerarhije

and stretch down into the different senses,

i spustite se prema različitim osjetilima,

and you may have a module that sees a certain fabric,

i mogli biste mati modul koji vidi određenu tkaninu,

hears a certain voice quality, smells a certain perfume,

čuje određenu kvalitetu glasa, njuši određeni parfem,

and will say, "My wife has entered the room."

i reći će: "Moja žena je ušla u sobu".

Go up another 10 levels, and now you're at

Popnite se još 10 razina i sada ste na

a very high level.

zaista visokoj razini.

You're probably in the frontal cortex,

Vjerojatno se nalazite u frontalnom korteksu,

and you'll have modules that say, "That was ironic.

i imat ćete module koji govore: " To je ironično.

That's funny. She's pretty."

To je smiješno. Ona je lijepa."

You might think that those are more sophisticated,

Mogli biste pomisliti da su oni sofisticiraniji,

but actually what's more complicated

ali ono što je složenije

is the hierarchy beneath them.

jest hijerarhija koja se nalazi ispod njih.

There was a 16-year-old girl, she had brain surgery,

Jedna šesnaestogodišnja djevojka je imala operaciju na mozgu

and she was conscious because the surgeons

i bila je pri svijesti tijekom operacije jer su kirurzi

wanted to talk to her.

željeli razgovarati s njom.

You can do that because there's no pain receptors

To je moguće zato što nema receptora boli

in the brain.

na mozgu.

And whenever they stimulated particular,

I kadgod su stimulirali određene,

very small points on her neocortex,

vrlo male točke na njezinom neokorteksu

shown here in red, she would laugh.

koje su ovdje pokazane crvenom bojom, ona se smijala.

So at first they thought they were triggering

Prvotno su mislili da su pogodili

some kind of laugh reflex,

nekakvu vrstu refleksa smijeha

but no, they quickly realized they had found

ali ne, ubrzo su shvatili da su pronašli

the points in her neocortex that detect humor,

točke njezinog neokorteksa koje prepoznaju humor,

and she just found everything hilarious

i njoj je jednostavno sve bilo smiješno

whenever they stimulated these points.

kadgod su joj stimulirali ove točke.

"You guys are so funny just standing around,"

"Momci, što ste smiješni dok tako stojite tu",

was the typical comment,

je bio uobičajen komentar,

and they weren't funny,

ali oni nisu bili smiješni

not while doing surgery.

bar ne dok su obavljali operaciju.

So how are we doing today?

Pa kako nam ide danas?

Well, computers are actually beginning to master

Zapravo, računala počinju savladavati

human language with techniques

ljudski jezik tehnikama

that are similar to the neocortex.

koje su slične neokorteksu.

I actually described the algorithm,

Opisao sam algoritam

which is similar to something called

koji je sličan nečemu što se zove

a hierarchical hidden Markov model,

hijerarhijski skriveni Markovljev model,

something I've worked on since the '90s.

nešto na čemu sam radio još od 90-ih.

"Jeopardy" is a very broad natural language game,

"Izazov" je vrlo široka igra prirodnog jezika,

and Watson got a higher score

i Watson je osvojio više bodova

than the best two players combined.

nego najbolja dva igrača zajedno.

It got this query correct:

Točno je odgovorio na ovaj upit:

"A long, tiresome speech

" Dugi, zamoran govor

delivered by a frothy pie topping,"

pjenušavog nadjeva za pitu",

and it quickly responded, "What is a meringue harangue?"

i on je brzo odgovorio, "Što je meringue harangue?"

And Jennings and the other guy didn't get that.

A Jennings i onaj drugi tip to nisu shvatili.

It's a pretty sophisticated example of

To je vrlo sofisticirani primjer

computers actually understanding human language,

kako računala zapravo razumiju ljudski jezik,

and it actually got its knowledge by reading

a on je zapravo stekao znanje čitajući

Wikipedia and several other encyclopedias.

Wikipediu i nekoliko drugih enciklopedija.

Five to 10 years from now,

Negdje za 5 do 10 godina

search engines will actually be based on

internetski pretraživači će raditi na principu

not just looking for combinations of words and links

ne samo na traženju kombinacije riječi i linkova

but actually understanding,

već razumijevajući,

reading for understanding the billions of pages

čitajući da bi razumijeli milijarde stranica

on the web and in books.

na webu i u knjigama.

So you'll be walking along, and Google will pop up

Tako dok se šetate, iskočit će Google

and say, "You know, Mary, you expressed concern

i reći: "Znaš, Mary, izrazila si zabrinutost

to me a month ago that your glutathione supplement

negdje prije mjesec dana da tvoj glutationski dodatak prehrani

wasn't getting past the blood-brain barrier.

ne može proći barijeru krv-mozak.

Well, new research just came out 13 seconds ago

Pa, novo istraživanje je upravo izašlo prije 13 sekundi

that shows a whole new approach to that

koje pokazuje jedan skroz novi pristup

and a new way to take glutathione.

i novi način uzimanja glutationa.

Let me summarize it for you."

Dopusti da ga sažmem."

Twenty years from now, we'll have nanobots,

Za 20 godina imat ćemo nanobote,

because another exponential trend

još jedan rastući trend

is the shrinking of technology.

jest smanjivanje tehnologije.

They'll go into our brain

Oni će ući u naš mozak

through the capillaries

kroz kapilare

and basically connect our neocortex

i zapravo spojiti naš neokorteks

to a synthetic neocortex in the cloud

sa sintetskim neokorteksom u oblaku

providing an extension of our neocortex.

koji će biti produžetak našeg neokorteksa.

Now today, I mean,

Danas,

you have a computer in your phone,

imate računalo u vašem telefonu

but if you need 10,000 computers for a few seconds

ali ako vam zatreba 10,000 računala za samo nekoliko sekundi

to do a complex search,

kako biste napravili složenu pretragu,

you can access that for a second or two in the cloud.

možete pristupiti tome za 1-2 sekunde u oblaku.

In the 2030s, if you need some extra neocortex,

U 2030-im ako budete trebali još neokorteksa

you'll be able to connect to that in the cloud

moći ćete se povezati s njim u oblaku

directly from your brain.

izravno iz vašeg mozga.

So I'm walking along and I say,

Naprimjer šetam se i kažem:

"Oh, there's Chris Anderson.

"Oh, evo Chris Anderson.

He's coming my way.

Dolazi prema meni.

I'd better think of something clever to say.

Bolje da smislim nešto pametno za reći.

I've got three seconds.

imam tri sekunde.

My 300 million modules in my neocortex

300 milijuna modula u mojem neokorteksu

isn't going to cut it.

neće to uspjeti.

I need a billion more."

Trabam ih još milijardu."

I'll be able to access that in the cloud.

Moći ću im pristupiti preko oblaka.

And our thinking, then, will be a hybrid

I tada će naše razmišljanje biti hibrid

of biological and non-biological thinking,

biološkog i ne-biološkog razmišljanja,

but the non-biological portion

ali nebiološki dio

is subject to my law of accelerating returns.

je podložan mom zakonu ubrzavajućih povrata.

It will grow exponentially.

On će rasti eksponencijalno.

And remember what happens

Sjećate li se što se dogodilo

the last time we expanded our neocortex?

zadnji put kad nam se povećao neokorteks?

That was two million years ago

To je bilo prije 2 milijuna godina

when we became humanoids

kada smo postali humanoidi

and developed these large foreheads.

i razvili ova visoka čela.

Other primates have a slanted brow.

Drugi primati imaju koso čelo.

They don't have the frontal cortex.

Oni nemaju frontalni korteks.

But the frontal cortex is not really qualitatively different.

Ali frontalni korteks nije kvalitativno drugačiji.

It's a quantitative expansion of neocortex,

On je kvantitativno proširenje neokorteksa,

but that additional quantity of thinking

ali ta dodatna količina razmišljanja

was the enabling factor for us to take

nam je omogućila da napravimo

a qualitative leap and invent language

kvalitativan skok i izmislimo jezik

and art and science and technology

i umjetnost i znanost i tehnologiju

and TED conferences.

i TED konferencije.

No other species has done that.

Nijednoj drugoj vrsti to nije uspjelo.

And so, over the next few decades,

Tijekom sljedećih nekoliko desetljeća

we're going to do it again.

učinit ćemo to ponovno.

We're going to again expand our neocortex,

Opet ćemo proširiti svoj neokorteks

only this time we won't be limited

samo ovaj put nećemo biti ograničeni

by a fixed architecture of enclosure.

fiksnom arhitekturom zatvorenog prostora.

It'll be expanded without limit.

Širit će se bez ograničenja.

That additional quantity will again

Ta dodatna količina će opet

be the enabling factor for another qualitative leap

omogućiti kvalitativan skok

in culture and technology.

u kulturi i tehnologiji.

Thank you very much.

Mnogo vam hvala.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)