Daniel Pauly: The ocean's shifting baseline

Prevodilac: Silvija Varga Lektor: Tatjana Jevdjic

I'm going to speak

Govoriću

about a tiny, little idea.

o jednoj maloj ideji.

And this is about shifting baseline.

A to je pomeranje dna mora.

And because the idea can be explained in one minute,

Pošto ovo može da se objasni u roku od jedne minute,

I will tell you three stories before

ispričaću vam 3 priče

to fill in the time.

da bih ispunio vreme.

And the first story

Prva priča

is about Charles Darwin, one of my heroes.

je o Čarlsu Darvinu, jednom od mojih heroja.

And he was here, as you well know, in '35.

On je boravio ovde, 1835.

And you'd think he was chasing finches,

Pomislili biste da je došao da juri zebe,

but he wasn't.

ali zapravo nije.

He was actually collecting fish.

On je ovde sakupljao ribe.

And he described one of them

Jednu od njih je opisao

as very "common."

kao veoma učestalu vrstu.

This was the sailfin grouper.

Ta riba je škarpina zrakoperka.

A big fishery was run on it

Mnogi su lovili ovde zbog ove ribe

until the '80s.

sve do osamdesetih.

Now the fish is on the IUCN Red List.

Ova riba se nalazi na Crvenoj listi Međunarodne unije za očuvanje prirode.

Now this story,

Ovu priču

we have heard it lots of times

smo čuli toliko puta

on Galapagos and other places,

na Galapagosu i na drugim mestima

so there is nothing particular about it.

i ona nije ništa posebno.

But the point is, we still come to Galapagos.

Ali u ovom trenutku, mi i dalje posećujemo Galapagos.

We still think it is pristine.

Još uvek smatramo da je to drevno mesto.

The brochures still say

I dan danas u brošurama piše

it is untouched.

da je tu potpuno netaknuta priroda.

So what happens here?

Dakle, šta se ovde dešava?

The second story, also to illustrate another concept,

Druga priča, koja opisuje jedan drugi koncept,

is called shifting waistline.

zove se pomeranje obima struka.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

Because I was there in '71,

Pošto sam tamo bio 1971. godine

studying a lagoon in West Africa.

proučavajući lagune u zapadnoj Africi.

I was there because I grew up in Europe

Bio sam tamo jer sam odrastao u Evropi

and I wanted later to work in Africa.

i želeo sam da kasnije radim u Africi.

And I thought I could blend in.

Pomislio sam da bih mogao da se uklopim.

And I got a big sunburn,

Prilično sam izgoreo na suncu

and I was convinced that I was really not from there.

i bio sam sasvim uveren da ne pripadam tamo.

This was my first sunburn.

Prvi put sam tada izgoreo na suncu.

And the lagoon

Laguna

was surrounded by palm trees,

je bila okružena palmama,

as you can see, and a few mangrove.

kao što vidite ovde i sa nekoliko mangrova.

And it had tilapia

Bilo je tu i tilapija

about 20 centimeters,

dužine 20 centimetara,

a species of tilapia called blackchin tilapia.

vrsta tilapije koja se zove crnobrada tilapija.

And the fisheries for this tilapia

Lovišta za ovu vrstu tilapije

sustained lots of fish and they had a good time

su držala veliki broj riba

and they earned more than average

i zarađivala su više od proseka

in Ghana.

u Gani.

When I went there 27 years later,

Kada sam se vratio tamo posle 27 godina,

the fish had shrunk to half of their size.

ribe su se znatno smanjile, gotovo prepolovile.

They were maturing at five centimeters.

Sazrevale su sa svega 5 centimetara.

They had been pushed genetically.

Genetski su bile modifikovane.

There were still fishes.

Još je bilo ribe

They were still kind of happy.

i svi su bili zadovoljni.

And the fish also were happy to be there.

I ribe su bile zadovoljne što su tamo.

So nothing has changed,

Dakle, ništa se nije promenilo,

but everything has changed.

ali se sve promenilo.

My third little story

Moja treća priča

is that I was an accomplice

je to da sam bio saučesnik

in the introduction of trawling

u uvođenju mrežnog ribarenja

in Southeast Asia.

u jugoistočnoj Aziji.

In the '70s -- well, beginning in the '60s --

Sedamdesetih, zapravo početkom šezdesetih,

Europe did lots of development projects.

Evropa je učestvovala u mnogim razvojnim projektima.

Fish development

Razvoj ribarstva

meant imposing on countries

je značio nametanje državama,

that had already 100,000 fishers

koje su već imale oko 100 hiljada ribara,

to impose on them industrial fishing.

da uvedu industrijski vid ribarenja.

And this boat, quite ugly,

Ovaj brod, prilično ružan,

is called the Mutiara 4.

se zove Mutijara 4.

And I went sailing on it,

Plovio sam na njemu,

and we did surveys

radio istraživanje, ankete

throughout the southern South China sea

kroz oblasti Južnog kineskog mora,

and especially the Java Sea.

posebno na Javanskom moru.

And what we caught,

Ono što smo uhvatili,

we didn't have words for it.

ostali smo bez reči.

What we caught, I know now,

Ono što smo uhvatili je bilo, sada znam,

is the bottom of the sea.

dno mora.

And 90 percent of our catch

90% našeg ulova

were sponges,

su bili sunđeri

other animals that are fixed on the bottom.

i druge životinje koje se nalaze na dnu.

And actually most of the fish,

A zapravo većina ribe

they are a little spot on the debris,

je bila retka pojava na smeću

the piles of debris, were coral reef fish.

i to su bile ribe koralnog grebena.

Essentially the bottom of the sea came onto the deck

Dno mora je bilo na našoj palubi

and then was thrown down.

koju smo potom vraćali nazad.

And these pictures are extraordinary

Ove slike su sjajne

because this transition is very rapid.

jer ova promena je zaista brza.

Within a year, you do a survey

Za samo godinu dana, radite istraživanje

and then commercial fishing begins.

i potom počinje komercijalno ribarenje.

The bottom is transformed

Dno je potpuno promenjeno,

from, in this case, a hard bottom or soft coral

prešlo je od tvrdog ili mekog koralnog dna

into a muddy mess.

u muljeviti haos.

This is a dead turtle.

Ovo je mrtva kornjača.

They were not eaten, they were thrown away because they were dead.

Njih nismo jeli, nego smo ih bacali nazad jer su bile mrtve.

And one time we caught a live one.

Jednom smo upecali i jednu živu.

It was not drowned yet.

Ona se još nije udavila.

And then they wanted to kill it because it was good to eat.

A onda su hteli da je ubiju jer su kornjače ukusne.

This mountain of debris

Ovakve gomile smeća

is actually collected by fishers

sakupe ribari

every time they go

svaki put kada

into an area that's never been fished.

se otisnu na more u kojem nikada nisu lovili.

But it's not documented.

Ali ovo nikada nije dokumentovano.

We transform the world,

Mi smo promenili svet,

but we don't remember it.

ali ne uviđamo to.

We adjust our baseline

Pomeramo našu baznu liniju

to the new level,

na novi nivo

and we don't recall what was there.

i ne sećamo šta je bilo tamo.

If you generalize this,

Ako ovo uopštavate,

something like this happens.

onda se nešto ovako dogodi.

You have on the y axis some good thing:

Na Y osi su dobre stvari:

biodiversity, numbers of orca,

biološka raznolikost, broj orki,

the greenness of your country, the water supply.

zelenilo, zalihe vode.

And over time it changes --

Tokom vremena, to se menja --

it changes

to se menja

because people do things, or naturally.

jer ljudi rade neke stvari ili se menja prirodno.

Every generation

Svaka generacija

will use the images

će koristiti vizije

that they got at the beginning of their conscious lives

koje su dobili na početku svog svesnog života

as a standard

i koristiće to kao standard

and will extrapolate forward.

vrednujući ga kao početak.

And the difference then,

Razlika koju vide

they perceive as a loss.

se procenjuje kao gubitak.

But they don't perceive what happened before as a loss.

Ali ne uviđaju da se pre toga dogodio gubitak.

You can have a succession of changes.

Postoje etape promene.

At the end you want to sustain

Na kraju, ono što želite da održite

miserable leftovers.

su samo jadni ostaci.

And that, to a large extent, is what we want to do now.

To je ono što mi činimo danas.

We want to sustain things that are gone

Želimo da održimo stvari koje su nestale

or things that are not the way they were.

ili koje nisu više onakve kakve su bile.

Now one should think

Neko će pomisliti

this problem affected people

da je ovo uticalo na ljude

certainly when in predatory societies,

u predatorskim društvima,

they killed animals

kada su ubijali životinje,

and they didn't know they had done so

ali nisu uviđali da to rade

after a few generations.

i nakon nekoliko generacija.

Because, obviously,

Jer očigledno,

an animal that is very abundant,

životinje kojih ima na pretek,

before it gets extinct,

pre nego što izumru,

it becomes rare.

postanu jako retke.

So you don't lose abundant animals.

Dakle, ne gubimo životinje kojih ima u izobilju.

You always lose rare animals.

Uvek gubimo retke životinje.

And therefore they're not perceived

Zbog toga to ne smatramo

as a big loss.

velikim gubitkom.

Over time,

Tokom vremena

we concentrate on large animals,

koncentrišemo se na velike životinje,

and in a sea that means the big fish.

u moru su to velike ribe.

They become rarer because we fish them.

One postanu retke jer ih mi pecamo.

Over time we have a few fish left

Tokom vremena sve je manje riba

and we think this is the baseline.

i pomislimo da je to bazna linija.

And the question is,

Pitanje je

why do people accept this?

zbog čega ljudi prihvataju ovo?

Well because they don't know that it was different.

Zato što ne znaju da je ranije bilo drugačije.

And in fact, lots of people, scientists,

Zapravo, mnogi ljudi od kojih su neki i naučnici,

will contest that it was really different.

osporavaće da je stvarno bilo drugačije.

And they will contest this

Oni će osporavati ovo

because the evidence

smatrajući da dokazi

presented in an earlier mode

koji su predstavljeni prema ranijem stanju,

is not in the way

nisu predstavljeni

they would like the evidence presented.

na način na koji oni misle da treba da budu predstavljeni.

For example,

Na primer,

the anecdote that some present,

anegdota koju neki pričaju jeste

as Captain so-and-so

da je neki kapetan

observed lots of fish in this area

posmatrao mnogo riba u ovoj oblasti

cannot be used

koje se ne mogu koristiti

or is usually not utilized by fishery scientists,

ili ih ne koriste naučnici za proučavanje riba,

because it's not "scientific."

jer to nije "naučno".

So you have a situation

Time dobijate situaciju

where people don't know the past,

da ljudi nisu upoznati sa prošlošću,

even though we live in literate societies,

iako živimo u pismenim zajednicama

because they don't trust

jer ne veruju

the sources of the past.

izvorima iz prošlosti.

And hence, the enormous role

To je velika uloga

that a marine protected area can play.

koju igra zaštićena pomorska oblast.

Because with marine protected areas,

Jer u pomorski zaštićenim oblastima

we actually recreate the past.

ponovo stvaramo prošlost.

We recreate the past that people cannot conceive

Stvaramo prošlost koju ljudi ne mogu ni da zamisle

because the baseline has shifted

jer se osnova pomerila

and is extremely low.

i nalazi se veoma nisko.

That is for people

To je za ljude

who can see a marine protected area

koji mogu da posmatraju te zaštićene oblasti

and who can benefit

i koji mogu da imaju koristi

from the insight that it provides,

od uvida u situaciju

which enables them to reset their baseline.

i to im omogućava da reše ovaj problem.

How about the people who can't do that

Šta je sa ljudima koji ne mogu to da urade

because they have no access --

jer nemaju pristup --

the people in the Midwest for example?

ljudi sa Srednjeg zapada, na primer?

There I think

Moguće je

that the arts and film

da umetnost i filmovi

can perhaps fill the gap,

ispune ovu prazninu

and simulation.

i simulaciju.

This is a simulation of Chesapeake Bay.

Ovo je simulacija Česepik zaliva.

There were gray whales in Chesapeake Bay a long time ago --

U Česepik zalivu je pre mnogo godina bilo sivih kitova,

500 years ago.

pre 500 godina.

And you will have noticed that the hues and tones

Primetićete da su boje slične onima

are like "Avatar."

kao u filmu "Avatar".

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And if you think about "Avatar,"

Ako pomislite na taj film,

if you think of why people were so touched by it --

ako se zapitate zašto su ljudi bili toliko oduševljeni,

never mind the Pocahontas story --

bez obzira na priču o Pokahontas,

why so touched by the imagery?

zašto su te slike uticale na nas?

Because it evokes something

Zato što to izaziva nešto u nama,

that in a sense has been lost.

kao osećaj da smo nešto izgubili.

And so my recommendation,

Od svih saveta koji mogu da vam dam,

it's the only one I will provide,

jedan jedini ću podeliti sa vama,

is for Cameron to do "Avatar II" underwater.

a to je da Kameron snimi "Avatar 2" ispod vode.

Thank you very much.

Hvala najlepše.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)